NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)

NFL Picks (2011): 116-112-11 (-$3,040)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 26, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13)
Line: Texans by 6.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Texans -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Texans -7.5.
Thursday, Dec. 22, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Week 15 Recap: I’m pleased with last week’s results. Don’t worry though – I have a couple of things to complain about:

Bengals -7 at Rams: Congrats to those who bet -6.5. I had -7. It looked like Cincinnati was going to cover because the Rams had the ball with 2:08 left and no timeouts remaining. There was no way Kellen Clemens was going to drive down the field 70 yards and score a backdoor-push touchdown when the team hadn’t made it into the end zone all afternoon, right?

Ugh. I hate Kellen Clemens. He has no future in the NFL, so did he really have to ruin my Christmas? Seriously, how selfish can a person be? Clemens should have handed the ball to the other team and said, “Walt and lots of bettors picked Bengals -7, so I’d like to win money for them.”

Broncos +7 vs. Patriots: Speaking of selfish, where was God in this? How dare he force three Denver fumbles and inflict an injury upon Willis McGahee? It’s almost like God bet six units on the Patriots, or something.

In all seriousness, this loss sucked. This game would have gone down to the wire if it weren’t for McGahee’s injuries and those fluky fumbles. Blegh.

Steelers +3 at 49ers: This is one of the worst picks I’ve ever made. I’m sorry. Perhaps the power outage fried my brain.

Anyway, I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: T.J. Yates really struggled against the Panthers. He made some nice throws, but was guilty of two awful interceptions. He also didn’t try to go down the field all that much with Andre Johnson out. Johnson is expected to miss this game as well.

I’d say that playing Indianapolis’ inept secondary is just the medicine that Yates needs, but the Panthers are actually worse against the pass (31st; 8.3 YPA) than the Colts are (27th; 7.9 YPA). Without any downfield threats, all Yates can do is dink and dunk.

Fortunately, he has a dynamic ground attack to aid him. The Colts have surrendered at least 130 rushing yards to four of their previous six contests, so look for Arian Foster and Ben Tate to set up Yates with short-yardage situations.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Dan Orlovsky has been an enormous upgrade over Curtis Painter. Not because Orlovsky is very good or anything; he has just been really careful with the football. Painter had way too many dumb turnovers. Orlovsky’s conservative style of play has given Indianapolis a shot to win these past couple of games.

Orlovsky has a tough test, however, in this contest. The Texans played poorly defensively last week, but Wade Phillips wasn’t able to coach. Phillips will be back and should be able to construct a sound game plan to expose Orlovsky’s weaknesses.

The Colts were able to run all over the Titans last week, but don’t expect similar results Thursday. Houston has given up 100-plus rushing yards to just one opponent since Week 6. Sure, that was against the Panthers this past Sunday, but Phillips should be able to take care of that.

RECAP: I think people are getting carried away with Indianapolis winning these last two games and possibly jeopardizing its first-overall pick. How quickly we forget that the Colts have been an abomination for 14 weeks before battling a Tennessee team with a quarterback who couldn’t move around.

This spread is a couple of points short of where it’s supposed to be, so I like the value that we’re getting with Houston. I also like the fact that excluding Week 17 games, road divisional teams are 52-28 against the spread since 2002 (6-0 this year) when coming off a non-divisional loss as a favorite.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Houston: 85% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Colts have won 16 of the 19 meetings (6 of last 8 meetings decided by 10 points or fewer).

Gary Kubiak is 5-2 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Gary Kubiak is 4-2 ATS after losing by 10+ points at home.

Colts are 4-12 ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003.

Opening Line: Texans -6.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Colts 10
Texans -6.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 40 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Colts 19, Texans 16
Texans-Colts Recap

Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Chiefs -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Chiefs -2.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Vegas Recap: The sportsbooks have been losing money all year, but they had a really nice Week 15. They won with the Redskins, Chiefs, Colts and Browns covering, though they lost with the Cowboys, Saints and Patriots. That’s only 4-3, but so many teasers were broken up with Kansas City, Washington and Indianapolis winning outright.

Speaking of the Chiefs’ victory, I’m on board with what Cousin Sal said about the Packers losing intentionally. Mike McCarthy didn’t challenge an obvious fumble; Jordy Nelson was whistled for multiple offensive pass interference penalties; there were so many dropped passes; and Aaron Rodgers looked uncharacteristically skittish in the pocket.

Why would the Packers intentionally tank? Did Rodgers and McCarthy bet the Kansas City moneyline? Perhaps. But I think McCarthy wanted an excuse to sit his starters. He likes doing that, so after watching Greg Jennings go down, I bet he couldn’t wait to inform his players that they would intentionally lose at Kansas City.

Anyway, I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Romeo Crennel is a genius. He constructed the perfect game plan against the Packers, and his players executed it perfectly. He seems like a great guy, and the players love him, so I hope he’s considered for the head-coaching gig, provided that the Chiefs don’t fold in these final two games.

I don’t see why they would. The two starting cornerbacks, Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers, the bastard of Highgarden, are playing on a really high level right now, and it really helps that rookie Justin Houston is finally starting to come on as a pass-rusher across from Tamba Hali. Carr and Flowers were able to shut down Jordy Nelson and the other Packer wideouts, so I don’t think they’ll have much of an issue with Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore. Carson Palmer will once again have to target Michael Bush heavily as a receiver coming out of the backfield; he had seven catches last week.

The Raiders won’t have much success moving the chains on the ground either. Bush has been a disappointment as a runner since that great Thursday night victory at San Diego. Bush hasn’t gained more than 3.6 YPC in any contest since then, with the except of last week (4.3). However, the Lions stink against the run. The Chiefs have been much better lately in that area.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I guess Crennel already envisions himself as the head coach of the 2012 Chiefs because he said that Kyle Orton deserves to be the starter next year if he finishes the year well. Orton was his usual self against the Packers – accurate and efficient between the 20s, but anemic in the red zone. Had the Chiefs capitalized on their possessions deep in Green Bay territory, the game would have been a blowout.

Of course, Green Bay’s awful secondary didn’t put up much resistance. The Raiders won’t be able to either; they’ve surrendered a poor 7.6 YPA in the past four weeks, which includes Calvin Johnson abusing them in the fourth quarter.

This contest will be a bit different for Kansas City though; unlike the Packers, Oakland can put pressure on the quarterback. In the past four weeks, the Raiders have 11 sacks compared to Green Bay’s three.

RECAP: I like the Chiefs a little bit. They’ve covered three of their previous four, with two of the spread victories coming against Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, teams that knock off undefeated squads (7-0 or better) are a prolific 16-4 against the spread as favorites the following week since 1989.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 54% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Road Team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings (Raiders 6 of the last 9 meetings).

Chiefs are 15-24 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17
Chiefs -3 +105 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 16, Chiefs 13

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Broncos -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Broncos -1.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Here are some random NFL notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. I’m glad my picks have been better recently (knock on wood). When I was really struggling, I received an e-mail from Patrick C:

Dear Walter,

I haven’t checked into a homeless shelter yet, but I want you to know I will gladly ride your picks not only to a life under a bridge, but to a brutal death at the hands of a local bookie once I can no longer deposit online and have to use phantom “credit” in order to follow your picks.

With love,
Random fan

I hope Patrick didn’t run out of money and was able to ride it out. If he stopped betting after Week 12, he could be sleeping in a gutter or a garbage can right now.

2. Speaking of garbage, a word on Blaine Gabbert. I’ve been writing in my 2012 NFL Mock Draft that the Jaguars need to cut bait on Gabbert and draft one of the blue-chip quarterbacks this April. Gabbert is a sunk cost. If you’ve watched his games this year, you would agree. He has no football I.Q. and is incredibly inaccurate. Worst of all, he’s scared of the pass rush. Here’s proof:

Why doesn’t Gabbert just play blindfolded at this point? He’ll get bonus points for completing passes that way instead of all the criticism he receives now.

Gene Smith will be fired a year from now if he doesn’t acquire either Robert Griffin or Matt Barkley because the Jaguars will suck in 2012 with Gabbert. Smith should be fired anyway for spending consecutive first-round selections on second-round prospects in Gabbert and Tyson Alualu. And don’t forget his biggest mistake – passing up on Tim Tebow. Jacksonville would be a better team and would have a packed stadium with Tebow at quarterback. Plus, I’m sure Wayne Weaver could have sold the franchise for a bit more.

3. Think you’ve had enough of Tim Tebow coverage? I don’t think you have. To shove more Tim Tebow down your throat, here’s a neat picture courtesy from forum member DenverTyrant:

Look at the bright and shiny Tebow spin round and round! Weeeeeeeeeeeee!!!

DENVER OFFENSE: Speaking of Tebow, he had a decent performance against the Patriots. The fumble hurt, but he was solid otherwise, considering the dreadful pass protection. Luckily for Tebow, Buffalo can’t get to the quarterback whatsoever. The team is dead last with 21 sacks.

With little pressure in his face, Tebow should have another solid passing performance, considering that Buffalo’s decrepit defense is fully capable of being torched. The Bills currently rank 25th versus aerial attacks (7.6 YPA).

Of course, Tebow may not even have to attempt 15 passes. The Bills have been anemic versus the run ever since losing Kyle Williams. They surrendered 200-plus yards to Reggie Bush last week, for crying out loud. In fact, the last time Buffalo hasn’t yielded at least 90 rushing yards to an opponent was Week 8. Tebow and Willis McGahee, who is expected to start, should easily be able to combine for 200-plus on the ground.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Broncos looked every bit as dreadful as the Bills defensively last week in a futile attempt to stop Tom Brady. Brady went down the field at will against Denver’s defense.

There are two things working in favor of the Broncos here, however. First, Brian Dawkins will be back off a neck injury. The team’s safety play has been atrocious since he’s been sidelined, so his return will be huge. And second, Ryan Fitzpatrick really sucks. He’s posted solid yardage totals in recent weeks, but only because his team has fallen so far behind. Since Week 9, Fitzpatrick has a whopping 15 turnovers compared to just 10 touchdown passes.

C.J. Spiller has been the one bright spot for Buffalo’s offense. Fred Jackson’s injury was unfortunate, but it opened the door for Spiller, who has proven himself as a really potent offensive weapon. The Broncos have permitted four consecutive teams to rush for 110-plus yards. The Bills will be No. 5.

RECAP: I’m not going to bet on the Bills, but I’d take them if I had to. The Broncos are coming off an emotional loss to the Patriots, so they could be flat against a vastly inferior opponent. Besides, they keep all of their games close, so if they’re able to pull out a victory, it’ll probably be by a field goal.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Broncos put so much energy into that New England game. I can’t see them getting up for Buffalo.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Tim Tebow or the stinky Bills? Regardless, people are betting on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 76% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Broncos are 10-32 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 2-16 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008. ???

Bills are 4-24 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Bills are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Bills 19
Bills +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 40, Broncos 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7)
Line: Titans by 7. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Titans -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Titans -7.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

More random NFL notes:

1. You don’t know how happy I was to hear that ESPN will be airing the real NFL Primetime on Christmas Eve. Well, maybe you do if you’ve been reading my Web site for years.

Since 2007, I’ve been pining for ESPN to bring back the real version of NFL Primetime. You see, when I was growing up watching football, I always looked forward to tuning into NFL Primetime on Sunday nights over the actual games. This was before NFL Red Zone and DirecTV short cuts, so this was my chance to get an extensive look at all of the action around the NFL. I loved Chris Berman’s “Bermanisms” and Tom Jackson’s analysis. Most of all, the music was awesome. I have most of the tracks on my computer.

ESPN canceled the real NFL Primetime and replaced it with a horrible facsimile featuring the annoying Trey Wingo and the insufferable Merril Hoge about five years ago. ESPN did this because they lost their Sunday Night Football license to NBC, prohibiting them from showing extensive NFL highlights until Monday morning.

NBC is the real bad guy here (as usual) for canceling NFL Primetime – it wanted the rights to a pre-Sunday Night Football show all to itself – but ESPN could have worked around it. Berman and Jackson could have taped NFL Primetime at their usual time, and ESPN could have aired it at midnight and then during the afternoon the next day. I’d watch it every week, and I know many others would too, based on the many e-mails I received. No one, however, wants to tune into Wingo and Hoge.

If you’re an ESPN executive reading this, please consider my plan. It’s the only way to save NFL Primetime. Don’t let the pretentious Bob Costas and evil NBC win.

2. If you read my NFL Power Rankings, you know that I like to make fun of NFL.com’s edge meter. For example, this graphic was available on the Atlanta-Jacksonville page prior to Thursday’s game:

How the hell does that arrow indicate a very slight edge? The Falcons were favored by 12. That’s no “very slight edge.”

I like to make parodies of these. Facebook friend Jay B. provided one of his own:

Not that I’m a ladies’ man, but Aaron3619’s creepy stalkerish tendencies on GameCenter are well known. I’ll have more on him later, of course.

3. I’m so glad that Facebook friend Jon Z. introduced me to Emmitt Smith’s verified Twitter account (@emmittsmith22). His tweets are just as grammatically inept as his ESPN analysis. Here are some of them:

1. “On the plane heading home. Happy Birthday Wifey. Love Your Hub”

I was tired when I read this, so I initially thought this said, “Love You Hub.” I then thought, “Holy crap, Emmitt is gay! Not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course.”

2. “Mr and Mrs Smith goes to Washington.”

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will be making this movie soon.

3. “RG3 congrats to and Baylor.”

Emmitt, you’re missing a word there. Congrats to Baylor and who? Baylor and who!? Congrats to Baylor and who!?!?!? I need to know!!! Aaaaaahhhhhhh!!!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I already talked about Gabbert earlier. He’s inaccurate and scared, and even plays with his eyes closed. If the Titans allow him to beat them, all the defensive players should retire, leave their homes and join a monastery somewhere in the Asian mountains. I can’t imagine anything more embarrassing than losing to Gabbert.

The Jaguars do have a chance of pulling off the upset because of Maurice Jones-Drew. He’s awesome. I don’t know how he finds the will to give 100 percent each week with all the crap around him.

Jones-Drew should have another huge outing. Tennessee just surrendered 208 rushing yards to the Colts, so I think Jacksonville should be able to establish the run. This will make life easier for Gabbert, who won’t have to contend with much of a pass rush. The Titans have just five sacks in their previous five games, so maybe Gabbert will have his eyes open when he fires some of his passes for a change.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of crappy quarterbacks, Mike Munchak was completely irresponsible for starting Matt Hasselbeck last week. I already discussed this in my game recap page, but Munchak is a buffoon for using an injured and inferior option. Not only is Hasselbeck worse than Jake Locker; he could barely move around because of his injured calf. What Munchak did was a fireable offense, as far as I’m concerned.

Munchak said that Hasselbeck will remain his starter, if healthy. Hasselbeck won’t hobble around as much after five days of rest, but he’ll still be limited with what he can do, even against a really porous Jacksonville secondary that has been ravaged by injuries.

Chris Johnson, meanwhile, won’t help too much. Johnson is the polar opposite of Jones-Drew; he has barely tried all year after receiving the contract he coveted. Despite all of their injuries, the Jaguars are still pretty decent against the run, so they should be able to bottle up CJ20.

RECAP: I refuse to bet heavily on Gabbert, but I’m taking the Jaguars. Road underdogs usually play well off an away loss, and the Titans are not good enough to be favored by a touchdown over anyone. They couldn’t even beat the crappy Buccaneers at home by that margin.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

I thought no one would want to bet on Jacksonville.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 70% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Jaguars have won the last 2 meetings.

Jaguars are 10-3 ATS before playing the arch rival Colts since 2004.

Matt Hasselbeck is 13-5 ATS off back-to-back losses. ???

Opening Line: Titans -9.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Titans 19, Jaguars 13
Jaguars +7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 40 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Titans 23, Jaguars 17

Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Line: Bengals by 4.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Bengals -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Bengals -4.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Some random college football notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. My BoyCott the Bowls campaign (#BoycottTheBowls) is in full force. I haven’t watched any bowl games. I haven’t looked at any of the point spreads in the bowl games. I don’t even know what the matchups are outside of the fake national championship, and the Grand Daddy of them all, the Ticket City Bowl, only because I’m a Penn State alumnus.

Facebook friend Vince G. is also boycotting the bowls. He’s taken it one step further and created a 16-team bracket for a College Football Playoff Tournament, featuring 11 conference winners and five at-large bids.

How fun would it be to fill out a bracket like that, enter in office pools and watch all the games? Everyone would stop working, and our entire economy would collapse. It would be glorious.

#BoycottTheBowls.

2. I won’t be watching the meaningless bowls, so I don’t know who will be announcing them. I imagine Matt Millen will do a game or two for ESPN.

Speaking of Millen, Chris B. sent me this e-mail several weeks ago:

Don’t know if you caught it, but the play-by-play guy on ABC called out Matt Millen, who was doing the color commentary, as eating “12 sandwiches” prior to the Michigan State-Ohio State football game on Saturday.

They began talking about food, and the play-by-play said something like, “Just like how you scarfed down a dozen sandwiches before today’s game.” Millen laughed, but didn’t deny it.

Twelve kielbasa sandwiches? Is there any doubt?

As you may know, I joke about Millen sticking kielbasa into the “back side” of his 100-percent USDA Men in his hotel room. The reason Millen loves kielbasa so much? Well, it’s good for man sex, but it can also be eaten if Millen is stood up on a date. 3. A word on the Heisman. Or rather, the meaningless trophy they give out to the player who produces the best stats.

Facebook friend Corey P. posted the following on my wall:

All the Heisman candidates were just interviewed and asked who they think will win the award on the Army vs. Navy halftime show.

Andrew Luck picked Trent Richardson.
Trent Richardson picked Tyrann Mathieu.
Tyrann Mathieu picked Trent Richardson.
RG3 picked Montee Ball.
Montee Ball picked RG3.

None of them chose Andrew Luck, to which Luck responded with, “See you a**holes in April. I’ll be the one leaving the building first.”

All right. He didn’t. But he should have.

The Heisman is stupid. No one under 50 years old cares about it. So many players who won it went on to flame out in the NFL, so you’d think they’d wise up and give it to the player who has the best chance of succeeding in the pros. And also, try not giving it to someone who was paid at school, like Reggie Bush or Cam Newton.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb reportedly was bothered by all the lighting during Sunday’s game. He’s suffered three concussions in his career, including two this year, so it’s highly doubtful that he’ll be ready to go. Even if he somehow makes a miraculous recovery before Saturday, he may not even be the preferred option. Arizona is 5-1 this season in games in which Red Skelton has handled the majority of the snaps.

Skelton isn’t the prettiest quarterback. He’s still really raw and inaccurate at times, but he’s stepped up when it’s counted most. He won’t have much of an issue against the Bengals, who have struggled to defend the pass ever since losing stud cornerback Leon Hall to injury.

The Cardinals should be able to establish a solid ground attack to complement Skelton. Cincinnati has allowed 86 rushing yards or more to every opponent since Week 10.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals have a clutch signal-caller of their own. Andy Dalton comes up big in the fourth quarter, but he has actually struggled during other periods recently.

Dalton has completed more than 57.7 percent of his passes only once since Week 9. He also had an interception this past Sunday that was really brutal. Arizona’s aerial defense has improved since Patrick Peterson and a couple of young pass-rushers emerged, so Dalton likely won’t be converting too many first downs until the end of the game.

The Bengals will move the chains on occasion though with A.J. Green, who is an incredible talent. Green injured his shoulder last week, but is expected to suit up Saturday.

RECAP: The Cardinals are playing an early game on the East Coast, but that’s apparently not an issue because they’re 3-0 against the spread in such contests this year. They upset the Eagles and nearly knocked off the Ravens.

With that in mind, I’m taking the points. Arizona has been a covering machine (six of eight), while the Bengals, who habitually fare poorly when favored, haven’t beaten the spread since Week 9, when they needed a furious comeback against the Titans.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 58% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bengals are 7-24 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 3-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bengals 19, Cardinals 17
Cardinals +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 23, Cardinals 16

Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Patriots -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Patriots -9.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. I’ve been posting e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).”

Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money:

I forgot to show you a picture of the envelope last week. Here it is:

I still haven’t heard back from them. I’ll let you know when I receive an e-mail from Richard Held or Loon Bruce.

In the meantime, here’s a new spam e-mail from a Peter Lee:

Dear Coach,

My name is Peter Lee, We are looking for a qualified Basketball Coach/instructor that will handle our basketball Club,this is a 24months Head Coach contract with the club.

This Head coaching contract with the Club is scheduled to start in January 2012.

We are very interested in the experience of a basketball coach who can satisfactorily create/implement an effective offensive and defensive system and instill essential teamwork qualities among our players to guarantee success.

Contract Duration: 24months liable for upward extension depending on commitments and performance to the Club.

Salary & Benefits: US$29,000 Monthly can be paid to any bank of your choice on every 25th of the Month. Free Accommodation and Car, Flight Coverage, Medical & Dental Insurance, Leave rotational 3 Months On and 4 Weeks off..

If you are interested and capable of taking this position. Kindly forward your photograph and your C.V/RESUME for review and urgent consideration.

Thanks
Mr Peter Lee

Oh man, this is almost too easy.

Here’s my response:

Peter Lee,

I am very interested in handling your basketball club. I am a well-qualified coach and have lots of experience.

One question: How old are the players on your team, and do you have ball boys? I work very well with ball boys.

I have attached my picture and resume.

Thank you,

Coach Bernie Fine

I can’t wait to see where this goes.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Patriots debacled the Broncos, so now all the media people are singing their praises and saying how great they are. They’re not great. Their offense is, but their defense is a complete mess. If it weren’t for those three fluky Denver fumbles and Willis McGahee’s injury, Denver would have kept up with New England.

The Patriots surrendered 200-plus total yards of offense in the first quarter, most of which came on the ground. That doesn’t bode well for this contest because Reggie Bush is unstoppable right now, coming off a 200-yard performance of his own.

With Bush breaking off big chunks of yardage, Matt Moore will have the luxury of operating in short-yardage situations. Not that he needs much help against a New England front that just lost its best pass-rusher, Andre Carter, for the season. Moore, who has also been hot, will torch the Patriots’ anemic secondary.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of hot, Tom Brady couldn’t be stopped at Denver. He was uncharacteristically lackadaisacal at Washington the week before, but rebounded nicely against a Bronco secondary that was missing Brian Dawkins.

Unlike Denver, the Dolphins are at full strength. The only defender who could be out is Koa Misi, who is just a marginal and replaceable linebacker. I’m not going to argue that Brady will be completely shut down or anything, but Miami could slow him down enough to give Moore a chance. The Dolphins have a whopping 27 sacks since Week 7.

The Patriots ran the ball well last week (30 carries, 139 yards), but don’t expect anything similar in this contest. Miami ranks third versus the rush (3.7 YPC).

RECAP: This is my December NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Dolphins for the following reasons:

1. As mentioned, New England is a bit overrated right now because of that Denver win. It seems as though everyone has forgotten how bad this defense is. That has inflated the point spread just a bit. There’s no way that the Patriots are 6.5 points better (9.5 minus three for homefield) than a red-hot Miami team that has covered seven of its eight previous games.

2. Speaking of the spread, would it surprise you that Brady has been especially awful at covering large numbers at home? It’s true. In his career, Brady is 15-22 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more. Here’s the kicker: He’s 5-15 ATS in such contests since November 2007.

3. Brady, meanwhile, has had major issues against the Dolphins throughout his career, for whatever reason. If you exclude last year’s Week 17 tilt in which Miami completely quit on Tony Sparano, New England is just 1-4 ATS versus the Dolphins at home since 2005.

Here are the margins of all Dolphin at Patriot contests since the Brady-Bill Belichick era began: NE by 7, NE by 3, NE by 12, NE by 14 (-12.5 favorite), MIA by 2, NE by 10, NE by 21 (-22 favorite), MIA by 25, NE by 10, NE by 31 (aforementioned quit game). As you can see, most of these games were close.

4. Teams with five or more consecutive wins (Patriots) are 24-42 against the spread at home since 2006. The logic behind this is that a long winning streak makes a team overrated, thus inflating the line – which is something I discussed earlier.

5. Another trend that favors Miami: Teams playing a divisional road game attempting to avenge a loss of 14-plus points to the same opponent are 79-58 against the spread since 2002.

6. We have reverse line movement. The public is all over New England, yet the spread has dropped from -10.5 to -9.5. This indicates that the sharp money is on the visitor, though this hasn’t done so well this year.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A big lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New England: 70% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Dolphins are 12-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Patriots are 37-20 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 21-12 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 131-43 as a starter (102-68 ATS).

Tom Brady is 15-22 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (5-15 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -10.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Dolphins 31
Dolphins +9 (7 Units – December NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 27, Dolphins 24

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4)
Line: Ravens by 11. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Ravens -12.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Ravens -12.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Video of the Week: Courtsey of Facebook friend Ryan B., here is a hilarious November Fail Compilation.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco was awful at San Diego. And I’m not just talking about his hideous mustache that needs to go immediately. His throws were all over the place, and he could have easily been guilty of four interceptions.

Flacco has to rebound, right? I wouldn’t be too sure about that. In a Week 13 battle at Cleveland, he went just 10-of-23 for 158 yards. Flacco tends to be erratic, but the Browns can stop the pass pretty well because of stud cornerback Joe Haden.

The Ravens won that contest because Ray Rice and Ricky Williams nearly combined for 300 rushing yards. The Browns haven’t fixed their inability to stop the run in just four weeks, so Rice will go off again – assuming, of course, that Cam Cameron remembers to call plays for him.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: As I showed you in my NFL Power Rankings, Cleveland fans were thrilled with last week’s loss at Arizona because Seneca Wallace played decently, which proved that Colt McCoy is not a franchise quarterback. McCoy still hasn’t been medically cleared to do anything, so Wallace is expected to start again.

This is a tough spot for Wallace. McCoy went just 17-of-35 for 192 yards, one touchdown and an interception against this Baltimore defense in Week 13, and Ray Lewis and company figure to be furious after last week’s lackadaisical performance in which the team missed what seemed like a dozen tackles.

Wallace just doesn’t have anything to work with. Greg Little played well at Arizona, but he’s too inconsistent with his route-running and frequent drops. Peyton Hillis, meanwhile, won’t find much room against a stop unit ranked second versus the rush (3.4 YPC).

RECAP: The Ravens are obviously better than the Browns, but I’d take the points if I had to. Teams favored by 12.5 points or more coming off a loss in which they were a road favorite are a dreadful 8-28 against the spread since 1989.

I’d bet on the Browns for that reason (as well as the fact that they’ve quietly covered four of five) if they weren’t playing in their third-consecutive road contest.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The Ravens’ loss at San Diego was a fluke, apparently.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 75% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: Ravens -13.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 17
Browns +11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 20, Browns 14

New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Pick.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Giants -1.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 4:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 4. When we left off, Dennis Green was having a mental breakdown because he wasn’t aware that we now have a 20-minute timer in between picks.

Dennis Green: My team f***ing sucks and it’s all your f***ing fault, Rich! I f***ing hate your f***ing guts!

Rich Eisen: I love you too, Dennis. Matt Millen, you’re on the clock!

Matt Millen: What my team needs now is a young stallion.

Rich Eisen: Ugh, here we go again.

Matt Millen: A young stallion. Someone I can ride all season. Someone I can ride in the playoffs. Someone I can ride all night in my hotel room.

Rich Eisen: Dear God, why did I ask this guy to be in our league? Why am I so stupid?

Matt Millen: And here’s what I mean by ride all night in my hotel room. There’s a hotel, OK? There’s a hotel that I will pay for in advance by credit card. Then, I’ll hide in the back area of the team’s locker room. When everyone but the young stallion vacates the premises, I’ll reveal myself to him. I’ll ask him to come back to my hotel room, hinting that there will be some kielbasa involved.

Rich Eisen: Millen, make your God damn pick, or I’m kicking you out of the league right now.

Matt Millen: The kielbasa will seal the deal, if the young stallion is, in fact, 100-percent USDA Man.

Dennis Green: I can’t take anymore kielbasa penetration stories anymore, Rich. I can’t f***ing do it!

Matt Millen: Then, the young stallion will come to my hotel room later. Maybe that night. Maybe the next night. Maybe in a fortnight. But he’ll be there. And so will the kielbasa.

Marshall Faulk: Hey guys, you can get the final Harry Potter move for $8 on Amazon. Is it my turn yet? I’ll take Warrick Dunn.

Matt Millen: Warrick Dunn, now there was someone who was 200-percent USDA Man. Double the USDA, double the kielbasa, I say.

Charles Davis: Warrick Dunn is in my Tier 3! Great pick, Marshall!

Matt Millen: A great pick indeed. I hid in Warrick Dunn’s locker to make it happen. Before long, there was kielbasa penetration.

Kara Henderson: This is pretty disgusting. Guys, have you been dealing with this the entire time?

Rich Eisen: I don’t know, Kara. I’m going to need some codeine. Millen, your time is up, by the way. It’ll be Marshall, Charles and Steve Mariucci to close out Round 4 after this break.

NY GIANTS OFFENSE: Where did that come from? Eli Manning was on fire against the Packers and Cowboys, but everything suddenly came crashing down versus Washington. Hakeem Nicks had a big drop, and David Diehl negated a touchdown, but Eli had two awful interceptions that were inexcusable in such an important game.

You have to think the Giants will be able to rebound against the Jets. The latter still has Darrelle Revis, but Jim Leonhard’s absence is huge. The Jets’ safety play was atrocious last week, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Giant receivers who aren’t on Revis Island (presumably Hakeem Nicks) this Saturday.

One concern for the Giants is pass protection. With his offensive line in shambles, Eli Manning took three sacks last week, while the Jets have ranked up 13 sacks in their previous four contests. A steady ground attack will help neutralize this, and the Jets just surrendered 130 rushing yards to the Eagles this past Sunday.

NY JETS OFFENSE: Speaking of a running game, the Jets will have an easier time establishing one Saturday afternoon. The Giants rank 22nd versus the rush, as they’ve permitted four of their five previous opponents to gain at least 124 yards on the ground.

With Shonn Greene trampling the Giants’ slumping front seven, Mark Sanchez will be able to utilize play-action and short-yardage opportunities to expose an even worse secondary that blows coverages every week. It just depends on which Sanchez shows up, and whether or not Santonio Holmes decides to once again be a catalyst for another two turnovers.

Like the Giants, the Jets will have issues protecting their quarterback. Sanchez has taken seven sacks the past two weeks, while Jason Pierre-Paul is quickly emerging as one of the premier pass-rushers in football despite that he’s inexcusably missing from the Pro Bowl ballot.

RECAP: This spread really confuses me. It’s a neutral field, so why are the Jets getting the standard homefield three points? I know that Fireman Ed and the rest of the Jet fans will be in the stands, but the New Meadowlands stadium is so poorly designed that it doesn’t give the host a clear homefield advantage.

I’m inclined to take the Giants over an overrated Jet squad that is 2-4 against the spread in its previous six, but the shady spread and all of the action on the “visitor” concerns me a bit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

People think the wrong team is favored.

Percentage of money on NY Giants: 76% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Jets 24
Giants +2.5 -105 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 29, Jets 14

Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9)
Line: Redskins by 6. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Redskins -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Redskins -6.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. We’re down to our final two because one person picked the Titans to beat the Colts. Think that contestant hates Mike Munchak right now?

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Christian Ponder just keeps getting worse and worse. He had an impressive debut against the Packers and was able to secure a victory at Carolina the following week, but he has really regressed since coming off the bye. He didn’t even complete his fifth pass before Drew Brees threw his fifth touchdown this past Sunday.

Washington’s defense has improved since moving Perry Riley into the starting lineup, so Ponder has another tough matchup. Fortunately for Ponder, Adrian Peterson will be another week healthier. Peterson figures to have a solid outing against a mediocre rush defense that has permitted 4.2 YPC.

The strength of the Redskin stop unit is the pass rush; thanks to Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, the team has generated 37 sacks this year. Ponder has taken 20 sacks the past five weeks, but Peterson being healthier should at least somewhat neutralize that.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: While Peterson figures to be healthier, the same can’t be said for Roy Helu. Helu has really sparked the Redskins since finally being named the full-time starter, but he was sluggish last week (23-53) because of ankle, toe and knee injuries. He’ll play against the Vikings, but will be listed as questionable.

Minnesota has surrendered at least 137 rushing yards to two of its previous three opponents, so it’ll need all the help it can get. If Helu can’t run well, it’ll put too much pressure on Rex Grossman, who was guilty of some “Bad Rex” moments when he threw two first-quarter interceptions against the Giants last week.

Grossman has a great matchup against a battered Minnesota secondary, but the Vikings still get great pressure on the quarterback; they have 40 sacks on the year, so if Grossman doesn’t have Helu complementing him, he could be forced into some dumb turnovers.

RECAP: The Redskins are playing well right now, but they’re still 5-9. Asking them to cover 6.5 points is just too much.

I like the Vikings because the Six and Six rule applies; teams that finish the year 6-10 or worse fare dreadfully against the spread when favored by six or more points. If Helu isn’t at full strength, it’ll be difficult for Washington to win by a touchdown or more.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 59% (47,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 4-25 ATS in their road finale since 1980.

Redskins are 8-21 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -6.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Redskins 28, Vikings 24
Vikings +6 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 33, Redskins 26
MISSING

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
Line: Panthers by 7.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Panthers -3.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Panthers -6.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 15 has been posted – Sam Hurd deals drugs to little kids. But Colt McCoy gets in the way…

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Cam Newton was on fire to start the year, but has cooled off considerably following his Week 9 bye. Prior to this past Sunday, anyway. Newton had a 4:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio prior to throwing two scores and no picks at Houston. Still, Newton completed just 56.5 percent of his passes, which continues his theme of maintaining completion percentages of 58 or worse since the bye. He’s been guilty of that every game except for one, which doesn’t really count because it was against the Colts.

Well, the Buccaneers are even worse than Indianapolis. They haven’t been the same since losing Gerald McCoy to injury, and most of the players have given up. Newton should have no issues torching an anemic secondary ranked 30th versus the pass (8.1 YPA).

Tampa Bay also sucks at stopping the run, as Felix Jones and Sammy Morris both learned when they piled up about 170 rushing yards this past Saturday. Once the Panthers establish a lead, they’ll be able to eat up the clock by pounding the rock with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There are so many things wrong with the Buccaneer scoring attack that I don’t even know where to begin. There are no play-makers, so all Josh Freeman can do is dink and dunk. Freeman, meanwhile, is making poor decisions and turning the ball over way too much. He also has no time in the pocket because his offensive line blows. Seriously, would it kill left tackle Donald Penn to hit a gym once in a while?

The Bucs could have some success moving the chains in this contest, however, because Carolina’s defense is among the league’s worst. Stopping the run is a big problem for them (26th; 4.8 YPC), so LeGarrette Blount could have major success, provided his team doesn’t fall behind in an early hole.

If Blount can run well, it’ll set up short-yardage opportunities for Freeman, who needs all the help he can get. Some of that assistance will come via the Panthers, who are 31st versus aerial attacks (8.3 YPA).

RECAP: The Six and Six rule also applies against the Panthers, but there’s no way in hell I’m betting the Buccaneers. They’ve completely mailed it in, showing no signs of life in the past month. The last time they tried hard was at Lambeau when Blount had that crazy run. Raheem Morris needs to be fired.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Tampa has quit, and people know it now.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 84% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Panthers have won 4 the last 6 meetings.

Panthers are 15-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 28-41 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Panthers 34, Buccaneers 17
Panthers -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 48, Buccaneers 16

St. Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
Line: Steelers by 10. Total: 34.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Steelers -16.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Steelers -14.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 19, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Jerks from the Bar (Maggio’s).

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger was definitely not himself Monday night. He sailed some of his passes and committed three turnovers. He had major issues just moving around. He’ll be better after four days of rest, but I wouldn’t expect anything close to a complete recovery until Week 17 at the earliest.

Luckily for Big Ben, he has the luxury of battling a terrible St. Louis defense that sucks in almost every aspect. Stopping the pass is an issue because the secondary has a ridiculous 10 cornerbacks on injured reserve. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown won’t have much of a problem getting open.

Meanwhile, the Rams are even worse at stopping the run, ranking dead last against it. Big Ben won’t have to do much if he can just hand the ball off to Rashard Mendenhall and his other backs. It’ll be important for the Steelers to establish a potent ground attack in order to keep Chris Long at bay.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Another injured quarterback, Sam Bradford, will be shut down for the season. This should have happened long ago because St. Louis’ offensive front is incapable of pass protecting.

Pittsburgh won’t have much of an issue pressuring Kellen Clemens. However, Clemens showed nice mobility last week, so he’ll be able to keep some plays alive and move the chains once in a while.

The Steelers of old would be able to force Clemens into a few turnovers, but this defense is decrepit. They looked absolutely pathetic against the 49ers and couldn’t even get off the field at times versus Cleveland the week before. Steven Jackson won’t be able to rush the ball, however, because Pittsburgh is eighth against the run (3.95 YPC).

RECAP: Teams often fare poorly after a Monday night blowout loss. As you can see below, teams coming off such defeats of 17-plus are 20-37 against the spread since 1999. It’ll be extra tough for Pittsburgh to rebound, given that it has to travel back across the country on just four days’ rest.

I like the Rams for that reason, as well as the fact that this line is just simply way too high. The Steelers haven’t covered as large favorites against the Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs and Browns this year because they’re so limited offensively – especially now that Roethlisberger’s foot is about to fall off.

LINE REMOVED: There was a brief line of Steelers -16.5, but it’s been taken off the board because of Ben Roethlisberger’s status. Stay tuned.

LINE REPOSTED: I usually like betting on good teams missing their starting quarterback for the first week, but this line is just way too high for Charlie Batch to cover. I don’t like the Rams either, but I’d take them if I had to.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Lots of action on the Steelers despite the quarterback situation.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 20-37 ATS since 1999.

Rams are 29-49 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-11 since 2009).

Rams are 20-33 ATS on grass since 2001.

Steelers are 25-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Steelers -16.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Rams 9
Rams +10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 34 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 27, Rams 0

Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chargers at Lions, 49ers at Seahawks, Eagles at Cowboys, Bears at Packers, Falcons at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
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2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
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2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
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2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)