NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LIV

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2019): 4-11-1 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2019): 11-4-1 (+$1,065)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2019): 5-9-2 (-$2,480)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2019): 2-2 (-$330)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2019): 1-3 (-$1,190)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2019): 1-1 (-$540)
NFL Picks (Week 21 & Preseason, 2019): 1-0 (-$975)

NFL Picks (2019): 149-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 2, 3:20 p.m. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

San Francisco 49ers (15-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-4)
Line: Chiefs by 1.5. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Feb. 2, 6:30 ET
at Miami

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 20 Recap: It was nice that the Chiefs -7 hit, but my January NFL Pick of the Month was a loser. The Packers laid a massive egg and failed to cover the eight-point spread. I love betting on elite quarterback getting lots of points. That sort of dynamic usually hits, but nothing works 100 percent of the time. Sadly, we discovered that during the NFC Championship.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!

You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Unfortunately, we don’t have much because we switched over to a new comment board. The reason I did that was because I was concerned the comment board we have now eats up lots of memory, and when the 2020 NFL Draft rolls around, it could crash the site. This new comment board is served on another server, plus it looks nicer, so that’s a plus.

Nevertheless, here’s some hate mail from last week:

This is from a man named Nephtali Diaz. I have no qualms with using his name because of what you’ll see next. He posted all over my Facebook wall for everyone to see, and he exposed himself as a vile, disgusting human being who is both racist and homophobic. Here’s the first series of exchanges, with Nephtali Diaz referencing Kenny on my video podcast:

I referenced Nephtali Diaz’s inability to do math because he used to constantly ask me how to calculate spread margins on Killersports.com. I explained it to him five times when he was more civil, yet he constantly pestered me to help him. I realized Nephtali Diaz was an idiot incapable of doing simple math equations, so I pitied him, much like one would with a dumb dog unable to learn the “sit” command. I tried to help him the best I could, but his limited brain capacity made it impossible for him to understand me. Throughout our conversations, Nephtali Diaz also displayed an inability to understand concepts like variance and recency bias. It was sad.

Given Nephtali Diaz’s low IQ, I’m not surprised that he’s both racist and homophobic. Human beings tend to fear what they can’t understand, and I don’t think Nephtali Diaz understands anything.

Here’s the next series of exchanges:

Here I thought we were having football conversations on my podcast. Little did I know we were having homosexual conversations instead!

At any rate, poor Nephtali Diaz was confused. He tried insulting me, but he accidentally told me that I have great intellect. Now, some of you might assume that he said this sarcastically, but that would be where you’re wrong. Nephtali Diaz doesn’t understand the concept of sarcasm. His brain can’t process it.

Here’s the final series:

And here we are. I hope Nephtali Diaz’s angry posts and my responses to them have made you laugh.

I almost feel bad about taking advantage of someone as dumb as Nephtali Diaz, but then I remember that he hates Mexicans and gays, and then I don’t care anymore. That’s not all his hatred is limited to, by the way. He said this to me privately as well:

His “2OOO followers” – more like two – are at Bughousemaster.com, which features one testimonial that has lots of misspelled words from what appears to be a child. I have no doubt that Nephtali Diaz wrote that himself to make it seem real.

Anyway, I was asked if Nephtali Diaz would qualify as Jerk of the Week. I’d say Jerk of the Year would be more appropriate. Stay tuned for that!

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete!

If you missed them, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Chicago Bears 2020 Offseason Strategy

Where will the best QBs end up?

Bruce Arians, A Retrospect in a Sad Desert

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Brett Rogers Mock Draft

CDU11 Mock Draft

KKunert327 Mock Draft

DS11885 Mock Draft

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is complete! Congress finally removes Emmitt as NFL commissioner. What will become of him, and who will be the next NFL commissioner? Perhaps someone with the best story?

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Worst Best Dinner Ever: My Nifty Fifty’s Saga

This week on FOX, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Miami, where two teams I don’t care about are playing in a game I don’t care about because my Philadelphia Eagles aren’t playing. Guys, as we learned in a shocking twist last time, I bought the TV station, which allowed me to impeach Herm Edwards, Charles Davis and Jadevius Clowney. I have seized all power, so whatever anyone says must be approved by me, and I’ve even written notes for you on cards to read off from if you get stuck. But please note that if you speak against me, you’ll be jailed and perhaps even placed in a re-education camp. But I did this for the people and the greater good, so it’s OK.

Emmitt: Kevin, if I readin’ this correctlessly, I know your name is Kevin; I have been calling you Benny all year long because I am an idiot former Dallas Cowboy and I will enter a re-education camp to become a former Eagle.

Reilly: Emmitt, that might be the first thing you’ve said all year that I agree with. Well done! What do you say, Tolly?

Tollefson: Kevin, I have lots of naked women tied up in my basement, but that pales in comparison to the many girlfriends you could have if Mother allowed you to speak to girls.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re too kind. And you’re right. If only I were old enough to speak to girls. I’m not ready at 67, but Mother says I’m a flower who will bloom in a late age.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I just heard people talk about how great Kevin Reilly is. Guys, Kevin Reilly is great because he’s a great guy. You see, if he were a bad guy, he wouldn’t be a great guy, but because he’s a great guy, he’s a great guy, so because Kevin Reilly is a great guy, he’s a great guy and not a bad guy, but the opposite of a bad guy, which is a great guy.

Reilly: You’re right, Jason. Looks like you’ll be avoiding the re-eduction camp.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by re-education camp. There are camps that educate you, and those are called education camps. But when you’re re-educated, you’re in a re-education camp. This is not like summer camp, which is camp you go to in the summer. But they’re fun because you get to learn about how great Kevin Reilly is.

Wolfley: DAN, I WAS ONCE BEST FRIENDS WITH A FISH WITH THREE EYEBALLS WHO PUT SAUCE ON HIS TAIL, IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN. BUT THEN I MET KEVIN REILLY, AND HE BECAME MY NEW BEST FRIEND.

Reilly: That’s so nice of you to say, Ron! Now it’s your turn, New Daddy. Read off the card I gave you and tell America what a great new son I am!

Cutler: Huh? What card?

Reilly: The card I gave you at breakfast! Remember? When Mother was pouring milk into my cereal, I gave you a card and told you that you had to read it while on the air.

Cutler: Oh, I thought you were giving me toilet paper. Whoops.

Reilly: New Daddy! If you weren’t my New Daddy, I’d send you to a re-education camp this instant! Hold on, we have a caller on the line. Caller, you’re on the air with us. What do you have to say, and remember, if you insult me, you’ll be headed to a re-education camp!

Reilly’s Mother: Poopykins! What is this I hear about re-education camps you’re sending everyone to?

Reilly: Mother, people are making fun of me, so I bought the TV station after selling my Nick Foles bobbleheads and told everyone what to say so they don’t hurt my feelings anymore! I sent Charles Davis, Herm Edwards, Jadarius Clowney and anyone else who has made fun of me to re-education camps so they won’t do it again.

Reilly’s Mother: Poopykins, you have no right to send people to re-education camps, especially because you have to get ready for camp yourself. Come on, Poopykins! Your bus for band camp leaves tomorrow!

Reilly: But Motherrrrr!!! If I have to leave for band camp, then I can’t order people arrouuund anymooooreeee!!!

Reilly’s Mother: KEVIN, GO TO YOUR ROOM AND PACK YOUR BAGS THIS INSTANT, OR I WON’T GIVE YOU MACARONI AND CHEESE FOR DINNER WHEN YOU COME HOME!

Reilly: Fine, Mother. But you’ve all been warned. If I hear a peep of negativity, you’ll be eliminated! This is for the people, and it’s for the greater good, so this is all OK! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I wanted to begin on this side of the ball because we have the best quarterback in the NFL going up against the best defense in the league. This is going to be an outstanding matchup, and I can’t wait to watch it!

Historically, this sort of dynamic favors the defense. Recall the two times the Giants upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Those of us who are smart enough to know that Eli Manning doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame are aware of what really transpired in those games. The Giants were able to pressure Tom Brady ferociously with just four players, all while playing man coverage underneath. This has been the recipe for defeating elite quarterbacks over the years, and the 49ers will be able to utilize the same strategy against Mahomes. San Francisco’s pass rush is devastating, especially with Dee Ford back from injury. The Chiefs have a solid offensive line, but no one has been able to block the 49ers this year when their defensive front has been at full strength.

Making matters worse for Mahomes, the 49ers have an excellent secondary. The pass rush is obviously partly responsible for how well the defensive backfield has fared, but opposing receivers have found it difficult to get open against San Francisco.

Everything I’ve said thus far makes it seem like this matchup is dubious for Mahomes. However, there’s one glaring difference between Mahomes and Brady. As great of a quarterback Brady has been throughout his career, he has never been a threat as a runner. Sure, he’s terrific at sneaking the ball on fourth down or across the goal line, but he couldn’t scramble for chunk yardage repeatedly like Mahomes can. This gives Mahomes a chance to beat the 49ers’ defense. San Francisco has battled just two mobile quarterbacks with experience this year: Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson. Wilson and Jackson were collectively 2-1 against the 49ers, and they would’ve been 3-0 had Jacob Hollister not been tackled an inch shy of the goal line.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Ultimately, I believe that Mahomes won’t have his best performance because of the matchup, but he’ll play well enough to put his team in a position to win, just like Wilson and Jackson. Thus, it could be argued that this game will be decided on what occurs on this side of the ball.

It seems as though there are two different underrated aspects when dissecting the 49ers’ offense versus the Chiefs’ defense. The first is Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s gotten lots of flak for barely doing anything in the playoffs thus far. He was a pedestrian 11-of-19 for 131 yards, one touchdown and an interception in the divisional round, then attempted only eight passes in the NFC Championship. The public consensus seems to believe that the 49ers can’t throw the ball, but that’s not true. It would be foolish to dismiss what Garoppolo did in a marquee game in December when he went 26-of-35 for 349 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in an upset victory at New Orleans. Garoppolo has plenty of talented weapons at his disposal, including George Kittle, who has a fantastic matchup against the Chiefs.

The second underrated aspect is Kansas City’s defense. Everyone seems to be accustom to the Chiefs being poor defensively, but they’ve gotten better in the second half of the season. They can rush the passer well, while their secondary has made big strides. They’ve been very effective at covering wide receivers, in particular, and Garoppolo may not have enough time to locate his targets with a presumably healthy Chris Jones breathing down his neck.

Of course, the 49ers will attempt to establish Raheem Mostert, which was a very successful strategy in the NFC Championship. Mostert was an animal, rushing for 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries. As great as Mostert was, I find it difficult to believe that he’ll have a similar performance. The Chiefs have been better against the run this year when Jones has been on the field, and the week off will have allowed him to improve his health. Jones operating at 100 percent will be a huge boon for Kansas City.

RECAP: Going back to Mahomes versus the 49er defense, I mentioned that this sort of dynamic favors the latter. In fact, the better quarterback has not fared well in the Super Bowl over the years, which may surprise many. Here are the results this millennium:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS (Warner was considered better at the time)
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)
2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS

2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: ??? SU, ??? ATS

The better quarterback is 6-10 straight up and 4-12 against the spread. However, if you just focus on the elite quarterbacks – Brady, Peyton Manning, Rodgers – that record transforms into 7-4 straight up and 4-7 against the spread. Because the line on this game is just one, the ATS record doesn’t really apply. All Mahomes has to do is win outright to cover or push. If he had to prevail by more than a field goal, for example, things would be much different.

If Mahomes were a second-tier quarterback instead of the best player at his position in the entire league, I’d pick the 49ers without a second thought. However, Mahomes is a special player. He can prevail against the top defense in football. His terrific arm, intelligence and mobility will allow him to do so.

I believe the Chiefs will win this game, but I’m not fully convinced it’ll happen. This is such a tight matchup that it could go either way. I made this spread Kansas City -1, and that’s exactly what the line is. The computer model is slightly more optimistic, making this Kansas City -2. DVOA is most bullish at a -3 projected line, but the DVOA numbers are from Week 17 because they don’t update for the playoffs for some reason, so I don’t think they’re taking Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander’s return into account.

If this were one of 16 contests on a normal NFL slate, I probably wouldn’t bet it. This game is so tightly priced, and there simply would be better opportunities available. However, that’s not the case. This is the Super Bowl, and much like many of you, I am a degenerate gambler. I will want action on this contest, so I would recommend TWO UNITS ON THE CHIEFS.

Wait, why did I just do that? Why did I bold and capitalize the end of that final sentence? It’s because I won’t be betting this way.

You see, I have a heavy stake in the 49ers winning this game. I bet them at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl back in the summer. I announced this on my NFL Betting Props page, but here’s the ticket, just so you know I’m not BSing you:

I want to make sure I win money on this game no matter what, so I’m going to hedge. I think risking a quarter of my winnings makes sense, so I’m going to wager 9.9 units to win nine on the Chiefs. It’s a damn shame that after their blowout victory the 49ers aren’t -3, or anything. I’d love to take the +3 and then hope for a middle (i.e. 49ers winning by one or two) so I could win both wagers.

Alas, that is not the case, so I’m priced into rooting for one side of the other. I’m going to search for an alternative line on the Chiefs with a nice price so I can perhaps middle, but this is what I’m going with right now.

As for the final score, I predicted the Chiefs to beat the team that vanquished the 49ers in my projection (the Eagles) in my NFL Season Preview, 30-27, so I’m going to stick with that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s nothing worth noting on the injury report. Chris Jones is practicing fully, while Tevin Coleman has been limited. I still feel the same way about this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was no Friday update because I didn’t get into the hotel in Miami until like 3:45 a.m. My night included navigating through a swamp, so look for that story in Jerks of the Week in the near future! At any rate, I didn’t have much to say yesterday outside of a huge bet on Kansas City moving this line to -1.5. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s a bit frustrating because I wanted a better number on the Chiefs alternative line. I think I’m going to bet the +3.5 -200 (Bookmaker) as my hedge. It sucks to bet -200, but I have a chance to middle if the 49ers win by 1-3. Plus, if I use the Chiefs -1.5 as a hedge, I run the risk of losing both sides if Kansas City wins by exactly one.

I’ll have an update early Sunday afternoon, plus I’ll have a write-up on the DraftKings aspect of the game.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I’m almost positive I’ll be betting Kansas City +3.5 as an alternative line as a hedge for my 49ers Super Bowl ticket. The entire week, -200 has been the best juice I’ve seen at +3.5, but I just found +3.5 -190 at Bovada. In fact, you can get +4 -200 at Bovada, so I’ll just bet that. I’ve also posted a new prop below.

FINAL THUGHTS: The Chiefs are still -1.5 in most books with very slight action going their way. My opinion hasn’t changed on this game at all. I still think the Chiefs will win, but this contest really could go either way. I wouldn’t even bet this game if this were part of a normal NFL slate, but this is the final real football game we’ll see until August, so if you have to, I’d bet a couple of units on Kansas City. I’m ding something different, however, because of my Super Bowl bet on the 49ers. Check out Live Super Bowl LIV Blog.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time 11 years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There was nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence.

Hopefully we can find a sure winner again. In the meantime, here are some props I like:

1. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -120 (Bovada): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 14 of the 53 Super Bowls.

2. Kansas City wins by 1-6 points +325 (BetUS); San Francisco wins by 1-6 points +413 (5Dimes): I like this scheme because there’s a good chance we’ll get one of these two right. Most of the recent Super Bowls have been close.

3. Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -120 (BetUS): In the previous 33 Super Bowls, the second half is 22-10-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at just -120.

4. Team to score first loses game +155 (5Dimes): The Chiefs have prevailed in both of their playoff games despite the opposition scoring first. This may not happen again, but +155 seems like a nice price to wager on just one scoring change.

5. Will Andy Reid Eat a Cheeseburger Before the End of the Super Bowl Broadcast? No -7500 (Bovada): Ha ha. Walt made a fat joke about Andy Reid. Except, I didn’t. I did not fabricate this prop. It’s a real thing, and it’s available at Bovada. I’m not going to bet this because -7500 is ridiculous, but I found this too hilarious not to mention.

6. MVPs: Chris Jones – 125:1 (Bovada); Dee Ford – 100:1 (BetUS); Tyrann Mathieu – 90:1 (BetUS): These are my three favorite MVP values. Patrick Mahomes is the likely winner if the Chiefs prevail, but Jones and Ford are talented enough to take over this game. If either produces three sacks and creates a turnover, they’ll have a good chance to be named MVP. Meanwhile, Mathieu seems like a steal at 90/1 at BetUS. He’s a play-maker, so I could see him intercepting two passes and running one back for six.

7. First Player to Score a Touchdown – Tevin Coleman 12:1 (5Dimes): Coleman is good to go, so I could see him scoring the first touchdown of this game. Kyle Shanahan could trust Coleman at the goal line, and don’t forget that Coleman had such a massive rushing workload in the divisional round.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Chiefs -2.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (184,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

The team that is the better seed (if applicable) is 1-13-2 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1996.

Andy Reid is 15-7 ATS following a bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Super Bowl LIV NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, 49ers 27
Chiefs -1.5 (2 Units) – what I’d recommend — Correct; $0
Chiefs +4 -200 (16 Units to win 8 units) – what I’m doing (Bovada) — Correct; +$800
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 31, 49ers 20

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +100 (2 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$200

Kansas City wins by 1-6 points +325 (2 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$200

San Francisco wins by 1-6 points +413 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$200

Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -120 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200

Team to score first loses game +155 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$155

MVP: Chris Jones – 125:1 (0.5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$50

MVP: Dee Ford – 55:1 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50

MVP: Tyrann Mathieu – 66:1 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50

First Player to Score a Touchdown – Tevin Coleman 12:1 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2023 NFL Draft Re-Grades

2024 NFL Draft Second-Day Values: Offense

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LIV

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