2019 NFL Betting Props

These are my 2019 NFL Betting Props. I’ve done well with these props over the past couple of years. My record since 2014 is 23-19, +$2,100. Of my top four props last year, three hit. I hit Bears over 6.5, Chiefs over 8.5 and Buccaneers under 6.5 as the big winners, while Seahawks under 8 was a horrible call. Here’s what I’m planning on betting this year (results will be added to the regular-season winnings/losses on the NFL Picks page after the Super Bowl is over):

Updated July 23, 2019

2019 NFL Betting Props: Win Totals

Baltimore Ravens: Under 8.5 Wins
The Ravens snuck into the playoffs last year, but Lamar Jackson was exposed in the opening round. Jackson battled mostly easy opponents after taking over as the starter, but the Chargers, being the first team to see him a second time, had a good game plan against him. I don’t think Jackson will be able to make the mental adjustments, at least not right away. Furthermore, the Ravens lost three key members of their defense in Terrell Suggs, Za’Darius Smith and C.J. Mosley, so I don’t see them winning nine or more games in 2019.

July 17 update: I still like the Ravens, but there’s a better price available at the Westgate (Under 8.5 +100.) Unfortunately, I locked this in already.

Betting 4 Units (-130) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/17/19)

Carolina Panthers: Over 7.5 Wins
I have bigger plans for the Panthers, as you’ll see below, but I think they’ll get to 8-8 or better. The major concern is Cam Newton’s shoulder injury, but I’m hearing that he’s 100 percent or close. Remember that the Panthers were 6-2 with a healthy Newton last year. There’s a chance Newton will get hurt again, but unless that happens early in the season, Carolina should be able to secure eight victories.

Betting 4 Units (-120) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/17/19)

Cincinnati Bengals: Under 6 Wins
This is a new addition for the July 17 update. The Bengals are a mess right now. Their first-round pick, Jonah Williams, is out for the season, while their top guard, Clint Boling, just retired. Cincinnati will have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, making them a safe bet for fewer than six wins.

Update: In the wake of A.J. Green’s injury, I’m going to add a fifth unit to this wager. I’m not in Vegas anymore, so the best I can find online is Under 6 -105 at Bookmaker.

Betting 4 Units (+115) at Caesar’s (locked in as of 7/17/19)
Betting 1 Unit (U6 -105) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/29/19)

Detroit Lions: Under 6.5 Wins
The idea that the Lions can get to seven wins seems preposterous to me. They were atrocious after trading Golden Tate last year, and they didn’t replace him this offseason, unless you want to count first-round rookie T.J. Hockenson (I don’t.) They’re clearly the worst team in their division, and they’re not coached particularly well. This seems almost too easy, especially at positive juice.

Betting 5 Units (+125) at Caesar’s (locked in as of 7/17/19)

San Angeles Chargers: Under 10 Wins
This might be the final prop I add before the regular season begins. I’m betting on the Chargers under 10 wins. The Chargers were already due for some regression because of how many close victories they had last year. Now, the Chargers will have to avoid regression without Derwin James, who is out 3-4 months. Furthermore, the Melvin Gordon holdout is looming over them, while left tackle Russell Okung is dealing with blood clots. We lose this bet if the Chargers go 11-5 or better, and I don’t think they’re going to reach that record. I had them going 9-7 in my season previews, and that was before the James news broke.

Betting 3 Units (-105) at 5Dimes (locked in as of 8/20/19)

Miami Dolphins: Under 5 Wins
The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. They have no quarterback. They have no running game. They have no viable receivers (except for Kenny Stills.) They have no tight ends. They have the worst offensive line in the NFL. They have no pass rush. They have one good cornerback, and one good linebacker. And they just downgraded their coaching staff. Miami is tanking for Tua Tagovailoa and may not win more than two games in 2019.

Update: I found a good price on the Dolphins under 5.5 wins at BetUS. I already have lots of money on this under, but I’m willing to add another unit to this new wager.

Betting 5 Units (-120) at Westgate (locked in as of 7/17/19)
Betting 1 Unit (U5.5 -145) at BetUS (locked in as of 7/23/19)

New York Jets: Over 7 Wins
I love the Jets this year, and as with the Panthers, I have bigger plans for them, as you can see below. I’m expecting the Jets to win 10-plus games this year as the 2019 version of the Chicago Bears. The Jets obviously don’t have the defense that Chicago possesses, but their offense will be much better with Sam Darnold and Le’Veon Bell as a one-two punch in the backfield.

Update: As with the Dolphins under, I found a great price for the Jets at BetUS. Their over is 6.5 -115, which seems crazy to me. I’m going to add two units.

Betting 4 Units (-140) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/17/19)
Betting 2 Units (O6.5 -115) at BetuS (locked in as of 7/23/19)

Oakland Raiders: Under 6 Wins
I really don’t see the Raiders getting to seven wins. They’ll be better this year, but their schedule is brutal. They’ll have to go two months without a home game. Meanwhile, the pass rush is still severely lacking, while Derek Carr will continue to be a wuss when it comes to getting hit.

Betting 5 Units (+120) at Caesar’s (locked in as of 7/17/19)

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 9 Wins
The Steelers are the third team that will be mentioned twice on this page. I feel like the reports of Pittsburgh’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. The Steelers are one of the top teams in the AFC, and I don’t see why one player leaving would change that. JuJu Smith-Schuster is ready to take over as the No. 1 option, and team morale might improve overall with Antonio Brown gone. Meanwhile, the defense has gotten a huge jolt with Devin Bush established as a presence in the middle of the defense.

Betting 3 Units (-115) at Golden Gate (locked in as of 7/17/19)

Washington Redskins: Under 6.5 Wins
This is a new one for July 23. I’m on the under. The Redskins look like a mess, as Trent Williams doesn’t sound like he’ll be reporting to the team anytime soon. Meanwhile, the defense took a hit when Reuben Foster suffered a season-ending injury. Mason Foster was then released because he clashed with the coaches. Unless Dwayne Haskins is an instant star, which I don’t believe to be the case, the Redskins will almost certainly win fewer than seven games in 2019.

Betting 4 Units (-130) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/17/19)

2019 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds

Carolina Panthers: 60/1
If Cam Newton is as healthy as I’ve been told, the Panthers are an absolute steal at 60/1. Again, they were 6-2 last year when Newton was healthy. They have a good shot to make a deep run into the postseason if Newton can remain on the field. If/when that happens, there will be some great hedging opportunities.

Betting 1 Unit to win 60 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/17/19)

Denver Broncos: 90/1
With Andrew Luck retired, I was looking for a team to take Indianapolis’ place in the playoff picture. I think the Broncos at 90/1 present ridiculous value. Denver’s defense is amazing, and the offensive line should be better with Mike Munchak coaching there. The only question is if Joe Flacco can stay healthy. If he can, he could manage another team with a great defense to a Super Bowl victory.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 45 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 8/25/19)

Green Bay Packers: 20/1
If you were to tell me that Aaron Rodgers will stay fully healthy for all of 2019, I’d bet upwards of five units on Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. The Packers have the best roster in the NFL, save for perhaps the Eagles and Colts, but a healthy Rodgers would put them over the top. There are major questions with Rodgers’ health, unfortunately, so this is just a one-unit wager to win 20.

Betting 1 Unit to win 20 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 7/17/19)

Indianapolis Colts: 13/1
The Colts are one of the top three teams in the NFL, and they have the most talent in the AFC. I’m going to bet a unit on them to win the Super Bowl now. I’m also going to re-visit this after Week 1; it’s possible Indianapolis could lose its toughest game of the year, which is a battle against the Chargers on the road. If the Colts open the year with a loss, I’m going to wager another unit on what should be better odds for them to win the Super Bowl.

Betting 1 Unit to win 13 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 7/17/19)

New York Jets: 95/1
The Bears were my super sleeper last year, and I bet them to win the Super Bowl at 100/1 odds. I think they would’ve gotten to Atlanta had Cody Parkey’s kick not been deflected, but we’ll never know. This year, the Jets are my super sleeper. They’ve made some awesome upgrades all over their roster, and I expect Sam Darnold to take a huge leap in his second year. It wouldn’t even surprise me if the Jets happened to win the AFC East, given that the Patriots took some losses and Tom Brady turns 42 in August.

Betting 1 Unit to win 95 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/17/19)

Philadelphia Eagles: 16.5/1
The Eagles have the most talent in the NFL, so if a sportsbook is going to give me 16.5/1 odds on them to win the Super Bowl, I’ll gladly take it. If Carson Wentz stays healthy throughout 2019, I believe Philadelphia will at least have a first-round bye heading into the playoffs.

Betting 2 Units to win 33 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 7/17/19)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 27/1
Again, I don’t see why the Steelers would suddenly lose their status as one of the top teams in the AFC because of Antonio Brown’s departure. JuJu Smith-Schuster will likely out-produce Brown this year, anyway. With everyone hyping up the Browns, I think the Steelers are completely under the radar, which is very uncommon for a team that is so often publicly backed.

Betting 1 Unit to win 27 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/17/19)

San Francisco 49ers: 45/1
The more I think about it, the more appealing the 49ers seem to me at 45/1. They have some dynamic offensive weapons, a very good blocking unit and a greatly improved pass rush. They still have their flaws, but I think a probable division winner at 40/1 is very appealing.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45 at Westgate or Golden Gate (locked in as of 7/21/19)

Seattle Seahawks: 37.5/1
I actually bet this back in January when the Super Bowl odds were released. I have a bit of buyer’s remorse because I thought Seattle would make some nice offseason moves with plenty of salary cap space. Instead, the opposite happened, as the Seahawks traded away Frank Clark and then made several reaches in the 2019 NFL Draft. Still, the Seahawks will be in the mix, as the Rams are bound to regress in 2019, thanks to some offseason departures.

July 17 update: I’m not as high on the Seahawks anymore. I don’t hate this wager, but it’s not something I’d make at the moment.

Betting 1 Unit to win 37.5 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 1/30/19)

2019 NFL Betting Props: Other

Carolina Panthers to win NFC South: 6/1
This is the best divisional-win prop I could find. The Panthers have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year, so getting them at 6/1 to win the division seems like a great price.

Betting 1 Unit to win 6 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/17/19)

Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs: +240
Once again, I’m high on the Panthers this year. I’m betting on them to win the Super Bowl, so it makes sense to wager the +240 for them to reach the playoffs.

Betting 1 Unit to win 2.4 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/17/19)

New York Jets to make the playoffs: +325
I also love the Jets this year. They’re the 2018 Bears of 2019 – a major darkhorse team no one sees coming. I’ll be surprised if they don’t finish with a winning record in 2019, giving them a good chance to reach the postseason.

Betting 1 Unit to win 3.25 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/17/19)

San Angeles Chargers to NOT make the playoffs: +180
The Chargers won so many close games last year, so they’re expected to regress to the mean. Also, they’re having issues on the offensive line with Russell Okung’s injury, while Melvin Gordon seems like he’s going to hold out. With Tyreek Hill not suspended, it’ll be difficult for the Chargers to reach the playoffs.

Betting 1 Unit to win 1.8 at Caesar’s (locked in as of 7/21/19)

Sam Darnold MVP: 100/1
Last year, Patrick Mahomes opened to win MVP at 100/1 odds. I love the Jets and Sam Darnold this year, so I think 100/1 for him to win MVP is tremendous value. We’ve seen the media lean toward giving the award to younger players – Mahomes over Drew Brees, as an example – so if Darnold has a great season and leads the Jets to the playoffs, he could definitely win MVP.

Betting 1 Unit to win 100 at Caesar’s (locked in as of 7/21/19)

2019 NFL Betting Props: Alternative Win Totals

The Golden Gate has alternative win totals at different juices, which is a terrific feature I wish more sportsbooks would adopt. I wagered on the following alternative lines at the Golden Gate:

  • Jets Over 8.5 +255 – Betting 2 Units to win 5.1
  • Dolphins Under 4 +220 – Betting 2 Units to win 4.4
  • Ravens Under 7.5 +155 – Betting 3 Units to win 4.65

  • Advance Spreads

    Facebook friend Chris W. alerted me of some advance spreads that are available in some books, namely 5Dimes. The best one he gave me was Raiders at Jets -3 in Week 12, but that line has moved to -3.5. Fortunately, there are a couple of great future wagers still available:

    Week 8: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+1)
    Why is Seattle favored in Atlanta, especially when the Seahawks will be playing in a dreaded early start time on the East Coast? The Falcons are the better team, and I expect them to be -3 or higher when Week 8 comes around.

    Betting 3.3 Units on Falcons +1 to win 3 at 5Dimes

    Week 15: New York Jets (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
    I love the Jets this year. I’ve explained why several times on this page. Conversely, I’m down on the Ravens, and I’ve provided reasons why on this page as well, so I won’t delve into it again. Given both viewpoints, you might not be surprised to hear that I love the Jets +6 in this matchup. This line will be Baltimore -3 at most when Week 15 is here, barring injury to Sam Darnold.

    Betting 3.3 Units on Jets +6 to win 3 at 5Dimes

    Other Sports Betting Props

    I’ve wagered on the following teams to win the championship in their respective sports. I’ll add the winnings/losses to the NBA/MLB pages upon completion of the season.

    Boston Celtics: 26/1
    I don’t understand why everyone is down on the Celtics. This team went to the NBA Finals two years ago. That squad didn’t have Kyrie Irving or Gordon Hayward available. Irving returned last year, but poisoned the locker room, so I consider Kemba Walker a big upgrade. Hayward, meanwhile, will be 100 percent after a lost season in which he was banged up. The Celtics are almost as good as the 76ers on the court, but their big edge is on the sidelines, as Brad Stevens is much better than Brett Brown. At 26/1, the Celtics provide awesome value.

    Betting 1 Unit to win 26 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 7/21/19)

    Golden State Warriors: 15/1
    I could not believe my eyes when I saw that the Golden Gate has listed the Warriors at 15/1. The sheet actually said 20/1, but someone quickly (and wisely) bet that down. The Warriors are still a top-three NBA team if Klay Thompson is able to return for the playoffs.

    Betting 1 Unit to win 15 at Golden Gate (locked in as of 7/21/19)

    Oakland Athletics: 50/1
    If you’ve been following my Baseball Picks, you know I’ve been betting Oakland very agressively. The Athletics are a very good team, and they’re also undervalued. When I asked for a price on Oakland to win the World Series at an MGM casino (Luxor, in this case), the guy behind the counter’s eyes nearly popped out of his skull when he saw 50/1. “Wow,” he said. “They’re STILL 50/1!?” I couldn’t believe it either. I didn’t hesitate to place a wager on Oakland to win it all.

    Betting 1 Unit to win 50 at MGM (locked in as of 7/21/19)

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