Baseball Picks (July 1-7): 2-5 (-$271)
Baseball Picks (July 8-14): 3-5 (-$129)
Baseball Picks (July 15-21): 6-6 (+$204)
Baseball Picks (July 22-28): 4-5 (-$29)
Baseball Picks (July 29-Aug. 4): 2-1 (+$136)
2019 Season Winnings: 28-29 (+$591)
2013 Season Winnings: 4-4 (+$130)
2012 Season Winnings: 19-19 (+$215)
2011 Season Winnings: 55-53 (-$940)
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians.
Line: Angels +122.
7:10 PM ET (Game 919-920)
It appears as though the wrong team is favored in this matchup. The computer gives the Angels a 53-percent chance of winning, making the +122 a solid bargain. The Angels should be able to hit Adam Plutko fairly easily.
I may post another pick later. If so, I’ll tweet it out. I’ll have updates on Twitter – @walterfootball.
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MLB Pick: Angels +122 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Line: Pirates +103.
7:05 PM ET (Game 953-954)
The Mets just swept the Pirates, so it’s time for Pittsburgh to get some revenge. The computer model predicts that will happen; simulations have the Pirates winning this game 57 percent of the time, making the +103 available at BetUS look like a good bargain.
MLB Pick: Pirates +103 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$103
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies.
Line: Giants +150.
7:10 PM ET (Game 967-968)
The Giants hit much better on the road than they do in their pitchers’ park. I like them versus Jake Arrieta, and the computer confirms that they are projected to win 51 percent of the time. That makes the +150 very appealing.
MLB Pick: Giants +150 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians.
Line: Indians +133.
7:10 PM ET (Game 967-968)
I wanted to take Sunday off because of the beating I took Saturday, then I didn’t love anything Monday or Tuesday. I’m back, and I like the Indians tonight. They’re available for a nice price, as the computer model says they win this game about 51 percent of the time.
MLB Pick: Indians +133 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$133
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets.
Line: Pirates +123.
7:10 PM ET (Game 957-958)
I have three picks for tonight’s slate, two of which are duplicates from yesterday. I’m going with the Pirates again, who win 54 percent of simulations despite being +123. They have the pitching edge tonight, so I don’t expect the Mets to hit very well.
MLB Pick: Pirates +123 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds.
Line: Rockies +155.
7:10 PM ET (Game 961-962)
The Rockies are the second play once again. They won yesterday, and I like them tonight. They should continue to feel right at home in Cincinnati’s homer-friendly park. Colorado is expected to win this game 50.5 percent of the time, which makes the +155 very appealing.
MLB Pick: Rockies +155 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres.
Line: Giants +125.
8:40 PM ET (Game 963-964)
The new pick for tonight is the Giants. I didn’t like their matchup last night versus Joey Lucchesi, but this is much easier for them. Conversely, the Padres should have trouble hitting Shaun Anderson. The computer says San Francisco wins this game 61 percent of the time, so +125 provides great value.
MLB Pick: Giants +125 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds.
Line: Rockies +128.
6:40 PM ET (Game 901-902)
The public is betting on the favorite in this contest because of Luis Castillo. However, the computer model says the Rockies should hit him rather well today. Colorado is projected to win this game 53 percent of the time, so the +128 at Bookmaker is appealing.
MLB Pick: Rockies +128 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$128
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets.
Line: Pirates +157.
7:10 PM ET (Game 907-908)
The Mets have a big pitching mismatch in this game, with Zack Wheeler taking the mound. However, the scuttlebutt is that Wheeler is on a 75-pitch limit because of trade talks, which means we’ll see plenty of New York’s awful bullpen. The Pirates should have their way with the relievers, which would explain why the Mets are just 51 percent to win this game.
MLB Pick: Pirates +157 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Line: Cardinals +108.
12:35 PM ET (Game 951-952)
Here come the Cardinals! St. Louis is 10-2 in its previous 12 games and seem poised to make a playoff run. I wish I were still in Vegas so I could bet them to win the World Series at 40/1 or better (not sure what the odds are because none of my online books have World Series odds posted.) The Cardinals should not be underdogs – they’re projected to win this game 58.5 percent of the time – so I’m loving the value at +108. MLB Pick: Cardinals +108 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$108
Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox.
Line: Marlins +115.
7:05 PM ET (Game 927-928)
The wrong team is favored in this matchup. The Marlins have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight against a White Sox lineup that strikes out a ton, so I don’t expect Chicago to score very much. The Marlins, meanwhile, should be able to hit Reynaldo Lopez. The computer says Miami wins 57 percent of the time, so +115 is good value.
MLB Pick: Marlins +115 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$115
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Line: Cardinals +120.
7:05 PM ET (Game 951-952)
Chris Archer has been better lately since abandoning his two-seamer, but he still gives up plenty of power. The Cardinals figure to take advantage of that, according to the computer model. St. Louis is 53 percent to win this game tonight, making the +120 a nice value.
MLB Pick: Cardinals +120 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$120
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros.
Line: Athletics +230.
8:10 PM ET (Game 915-916)
This price is ridiculous. The Athletics are too good to be +230 underdogs. I know they’re battling Gerrit Cole, but they don’t strike out very much, so they should be able to put the ball in play. The computer says that Oakland wins this game 44.5 percent of the time. At +230, you only need to hit 30.3 percent of the time to profit, meaning the Athletics provide some great value tonight.
MLB Pick: Athletics +230 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$100
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins.
Line: Athletics +132.
2:10 PM ET (Game 973-974)
I’m once again picking the underrated Athletics. I don’t know why they continue to be underdogs against inferior teams. The computer says they’re going to win this matchup 60 percent of the time, as they should have plenty of success hitting Michael Pineda.
MLB Pick: Athletics +132 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees.
Line: Rockies +182.
1:05 PM ET (Game 979-980)
Sigh. Here we go again. The computer says that the Rockies will win this matchup 52 percent of the time. With that in mind, +182 is insane value. Colorado has been ice cold lately, but that might just mean that it’s the correct time to bet the team again.
MLB Pick: Rockies +182 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$182
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves.
Line: Nationals +153.
7:05 PM ET (Game 953-954)
The Nationals are substantial underdogs in this game despite being a hot team. I think they’ll continue their winning ways tonight, or at least that’s what the computer says. Washington is 51 percent to win this game, which means the +153 presents great value.
MLB Pick: Nationals +153 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins.
Line: Athletics +130.
7:10 PM ET (Game 921-922)
The Athletics are the better team, and the computer model suggests that they’ll win this game more often than not (53%), even if Matt Chapman doesn’t play. If it’s announced that Chapman is in the lineup, this line could move in Oakland’s favor, so I’d get this one in now.
MLB Pick: Athletics +130 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$130
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros.
Line: Rangers +180.
7:10 PM ET (Game 925-926)
I don’t understand this line. The Astros are trotting out Jose Urquidy, who was shelled in his two starts this year. The Rangers should be able to hit him rather easily. The computer model agrees, giving Texas a 52-percent chance of winning this game.
MLB Pick: Rangers +180 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees.
Line: Rockies +210.
7:05 PM ET (Game 979-980)
Believe it or not, the Rockies are 52 percent to win this game according to the computer model. That may seem odd, given the Yankees’ favorable matchup against Colorado’s horrible pitcher, but the Rockies are projected to hit even better against J.A. Happ.
MLB Pick: Rockies +210 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants.
Line: Giants +157.
10:15 PM ET (Game 963-964)
The Mets are massive road favorites in this matchup despite the fact that the Giants are coming off a sweep against the Rockies because Jacob deGrom is pitching. However, as I mentioned before, the Mets don’t have a good record when deGrom pitches (6-13). That would explain why the Mets are only 51.5 percent to win this matchup.
MLB Pick: Giants +157 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$157
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins.
Line: Athletics +117.
8:10 PM ET (Game 921-922)
The Athletics are back to being undervalued for some reason, but I’m not complaining. The computer model says they should be favored, as they’re winning 60 percent of simulations, despite the expected absence of Matt Chapman.
MLB Pick: Athletics +117 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs.
Line: Reds +115.
2:20 PM ET (Game 955-956)
The Reds offer some nice value this afternoon. They’re +115 at BetUS right now, yet are projected to win this game 52 percent of the time, according to the computer model.
MLB Pick: Reds +115 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals.
Line: Royals +110.
8:15 PM ET (Game 919-920)
I don’t understand why the Royals are home dogs against the White Sox. They’re projected to win this game 55.5 percent of the time, so I love the +110 value despite the horrid pitching.
MLB Pick: Royals +110 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$110
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Angels +103.
10:05 PM ET (Game 923-924)
Here’s another home dog that should be favored. I went with the Angels last night, and I plan on doing so again today. The computer model says the Angels will win 62 percent of the time, even without Mike Trout.
MLB Pick: Angels +103 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$103
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Angels +122.
10:05 PM ET (Game 969-970)
The Angels won’t have Mike Trout tonight, but the computer model doesn’t care, as it’s projecting that Los Angeles will win this game 49.5 percent of the time. The Angels, at +122, seem like good value, considering the circumstances.
MLB Pick: Angels +122 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$122
New York Mets at Miami Marlins.
Line: Marlins +205.
1:10 PM ET (Game 903-904)
The Mets are huge favorites today because Jacob deGrom is pitching, yet the Mets are just 5-13 when deGrom pitches. The Marlins also have a good pitcher taking the mound in Sandy Alcantara. The Mets will have trouble hitting Alcantara, which would explain why the computer model says the Mets are only 50.5 percent to win this game. With those odds, I love getting Miami as a huge underdog.
MLB Pick: Marlins +205 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$100
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs.
Line: Pirates +160.
2:20 PM ET (Game 909-910)
The Pirates are big underdogs in this matchup, but they shouldn’t be. The computer says this is a coin-flip game, so I love getting this sort of great value.
MLB Pick: Pirates +160 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals.
Line: Diamondbacks +128.
7:15 PM ET (Game 959-960)
The Diamondbacks are 49 percent to win this game, as they should be able to hit Dakota Hudson fairly well. I love the value with Arizona at +128, available at 5Dimes.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +128 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals.
Line: Royals +102.
7:15 PM ET (Game 975-976)
The Royals are slightly better than even money on this line, which is horribly mispriced. The computer model says Kansas City wins this game 60 percent of the time, so taking the host makes sense in this case.
MLB Pick: Royals +102 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$102
Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox.
Line: Dodgers +155.
7:15 PM ET (Game 981-982)
The Red Sox are big favorites this evening because of Chris Sale. However, I like the Dodgers’ chances of hitting Sale. Los Angeles is 49 percent to win this game, making the +155 line an unbelievable value.
MLB Pick: Dodgers +155 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$155
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals.
Line: Tigers +129.
8:15 PM ET (Game 923-924)
The Royals are favored in this game, but the computer model says that this is incorrect. It’s giving Detroit a 52-percent chance to win this game, so the +129 line we’re getting with them is outstanding value. Spencer Turnbull should be able to limit the Royals tonight despite his 3-8 record.
MLB Pick: Tigers +129 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Mariners +150.
10:05 PM ET (Game 925-926)
This line is even more confusing. The computer gives Seattle a 54-percent chance to win this game, yet the team is +150 at 5Dimes. It’s hard to trust the Mariners, but I believe in the computer model more, so I’m going to be on them tonight, as they should be able to hit Felix Pena rather easily.
MLB Pick: Mariners +150 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers.
Line: Rangers +114.
3:07 PM ET (Game 915-916)
I don’t understand why the Astros are favored on the road in this matchup. The Rangers have the better pitcher and should be able to hit well. The computer model says Texas wins this game 51 percent of the time, so the +114 on the home dog provides great value.
MLB Pick: Rangers +114 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$114
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins.
Line: Rangers +144.
2:10 PM ET (Game 913-914)
Argh, yet another loss in the ninth inning or later. I’m hoping variance goes our way soon, and hopefully that will be this afternoon, as I have two picks for the early slate. I like the Rangers here, as Jesse Chavez has been pitching much better lately. The computer model says this is a coin-flip game, so I love the value at +144.
MLB Pick: Rangers +144 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$100
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays.
Line: Orioles +144.
3:07 PM ET (Game 915-916)
The Blue Jays struggle to hit right-handed pitching, so Andrew Cashner should do well in this game. I like the Orioles, and the computer does as well, giving Baltimore a 55-percent chance to win. Getting a 55-percent shot at +144 is a steal.
MLB Pick: Orioles +144 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$144
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves.
Line: Marlins +170.
7:20 PM ET (Game 955-956)
This is a great price for the Marlins. The computer model says this is a coin-flip game. Jordan Yamamoto has looked great in brief action thus far, so he should be able to limit the Atlanta bats enough to give his team a chance to prevail.
MLB Pick: Marlins +170 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox.
Line: White Sox -109.
2:10 PM ET (Game 913-914)
Last night was brutal, as we lost both games in the ninth inning or later. The Mariners were especially frustrating, as they couldn’t get an out when they were up 2-0 in the ninth. Anyway, there’s not much to love as far as value is concerned. The best I could find is the White Sox, who are projected to win 57 percent of simulations. The break-even point at a -109 moneyline is 52.2 percent, so Chicago provides some half-decent value worth betting.
MLB Pick: White Sox -109 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$109
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics.
Line: Athletics -108.
9:07 PM ET (Game 973-974)
The Athletics are -108 tonight, which seems like a great price. The computer model projects them to win 60 percent of the time, and at -108, we need to hit 51.9 percent of wagers to break even. I don’t know why Oakland continues to be criminally undervalued, but let’s keep betting on it.
MLB Pick: Athletics -108 (1 Unit) – BetUS/5Dimes — Incorrect; -$108
St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners.
Line: Mariners +106.
10:10 PM ET (Game 979-980)
I won with the Mariners last night, and I hope to do so again. Seattle is underdog tonight, yet the computer model says it will win this game about 52 percent of the time. Getting +106 with the host isn’t crazy value, but I’m certainly willing to bet on that number.
MLB Pick: Mariners +106 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners.
Line: Mariners +132.
7:05 PM ET (Game 951-952)
I don’t understand why the Cardinals are favored on the road in this matchup. They’ve disappointed all year, and that should continue. The computer model says this is a coin-flip game, so I’m more than happy to bet the +132 home dogs.
I may post another pick later. If so, I’ll tweet it out. I’ll have updates on Twitter – @walterfootball.
MLB Pick: Mariners +132 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$132
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays.
Line: Royals +138.
1:05 PM ET (Game 957-958)
I am once again backing the Royals. It paid off yesterday, and I’m confident we’ll have the same result this afternoon. The computer model projects Kansas City to win 67.5 percent of the time (!) with nearly six projected runs. Yet, the Royals are +138 underdogs on 5Dimes, which is absolutely ridiculous value.
MLB Pick: Royals +138 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Line: Pirates +114.
7:05 PM ET (Game 951-952)
People are loving the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay, and so do I for MLB Draft Kings, even though Adbert sounds like a name that was just misspelled on the birth certificate. However, Alzolay is not going to pitch deep into this game, so Pittsburgh could win this one late. The Pirates are projected to win this contest 55 percent of the time, so +114 is good value.
MLB Pick: Pirates +114 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$114
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays.
Line: Royals +119.
1:05 PM ET (Game 919-920)
The Royals are down 2-0 in this series, but they’ve nearly won both games. The computer model actually favors them ever so slightly today, as they have an edge in the pitching matchup. They should be able to hit Aaron Sanchez rather easily.
MLB Pick: Royals +119 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$119
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox.
Line: Twins +100.
2:10 PM ET (Game 925-926)
I talked about how White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito has gotten very lucky this season and figures to regress to the mean. That should continue to happen in this game, as the computer model projects Minnesota to score five runs and win this game about 55 percent of the time. Given that, we’re getting a solid price on the Twins at an even +100.
MLB Pick: Twins +100 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres.
Line: Cardinals +111.
4:10 PM ET (Game 911-912)
The Cardinals have dropped five in a row, so this seems like a great time to bet them, as they’re very undervalued. The computer model says they’ll win this game 57 percent of the time, as the Padres will have trouble hitting Miles Mikolas. I like St. Louis at this number as the team attempts to avoid the sweep.
MLB Pick: Cardinals +111 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$111
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Athletics +125.
4:07 PM ET (Game 927-928)
If you’re thinking that I’m going to pick Oakland in this final game, you would be correct! It’s amazing how undervalued the Athletics continue to be. They’re underdogs in this contest, and yet the computer model says they’re going to win 57 percent of the time.
MLB Pick: Athletics +125 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$125
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds.
Line: Cubs +118.
4:10 PM ET (Game 955-956)
The Cubs are underdogs in this game, yet the computer model suggests they win more than 50 percent of the time. I’m always worried about backing a public dog, but casual bettors are leaning toward Cincinnati, so there’s no concern in that regard. The Cubs should be able to hit Luis Castillo pretty well. I’m not high on Jose Quintana, but I prefer Chicago’s bats in this contest.
MLB Pick: Cubs +118 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$118
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays.
Line: Royals +170.
4:05 PM ET (Game 969-970)
I’m going to take a small shot with the Royals. The Blue Jays are favored to win, but the computer says that they prevail just 53 percent of the time. The break-even point at +170 is 37 percent, so if the Royals are 47 percent to win, that’s tremendous value. Kansas City almost won last night, so I don’t see why it can’t prevail this afternoon.
MLB Pick: Royals +170 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Athletics +133.
10:05 PM ET (Game 977-978)
You guessed it: I’m going with the Athletics once again. The computer model continues to love Oakland, giving the team a 58-percent chance to win this game. Despite the Athletics having a good shot to prevail, they’re +133 at 5Dimes, which is insane value.
MLB Pick: Athletics +133 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$133
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays.
Line: Royals +117.
7:05 PM ET (Game 917-918)
It seems as though the wrong team is favored in this matchup. The computer model says that Kansas City wins this game 54.5 percent of the time, so +117 at BetUS is a sweet deal when considering that the break-even point for that line is 46.1 percent. The Royals should be able to hit Sean Reid Foley, and I’ll be stacking them in some lineups on Draft Kings, as they’re cheap and can be paired with the expensive Dodgers.
MLB Pick: Royals +117 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Athletics +125.
10:07 PM ET (Game 965-966)
Picking the Athletics last night didn’t pan out, but I’m going to do it again. The computer model once again says this is a toss-up game, so I like getting the Athletics at this great price. You can find +125 at both BetUS and 5Dimes.
MLB Pick: Athletics +125 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$125
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies.
Line: Mets +128.
1:05 PM ET (Game 951-952)
About 67 percent of the public is on the Phillies, yet the computer model is saying that this is about a coin-flip game. That may seem surprising until you consider that the Mets have been leading every single game in this series until their bullpen was called upon. Mets’ starting pitcher Zack Wheeler can go deep into games, which should help New York avoid the sweep. At a +128 line, the break-even point is 43.85 percent, which sounds like good value when considering that the Mets are about 48-49 percent to win.
MLB Pick: Mets +128 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Athletics +147.
10:07 PM ET (Game 965-966)
The blown save from the first game sucked, so hopefully this game will have better results. I’m going to be on the Athletics again, as they continue to be undervalued. The computer model projects this to be a coin-flip game, so the +147 line provides tons of value. The break-even point at +147 is 40.5 percent, which gives us about an 8-9 percent margin to work with.
MLB Pick: Athletics +147 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks.
Line: Dodgers -150.
3:40 PM ET (Game 901-902)
Contrarian bettors might see -150 as a high number for a road favorite, but I think this line is very underpriced. The computer model says the Dodgers, with one of their top prospects, Tony Gonsolin, win about 80 percent of simulations. Yet, the break-even point for -150 wagers is only 60 percent, so we’re actually getting great value with Los Angeles. I don’t like that there’s so much money coming in on the Dodgers, but there are other sides on the slate with greater cash-flow disparities like the Rockies and Yankees (who are currently down 3-0.)
MLB Pick: Dodgers -150 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$150
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs.
Line: Braves +118.
8:05 PM ET (Game 909-910)
The Dodgers pick didn’t work out, but perhaps the Braves will cash. This is a true toss-up game according to the computer model, so getting the Braves at +118 provides some decent value. It seems as though the Braves should have more success hitting Yu Darvish than the Cubs will Dallas Keuchel.
MLB Pick: Braves +118 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$118
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals.
Line: Athletics +132.
7:35 PM ET (Game 923-924)
I loved the Athletics yesterday, and I’m going to bet them tonight again. They’re favored to win, per the computer model, yet they’re +132 at Bovada, which seems ridiculous. This is way too much value to pass up, and the public is on St. Louis to boot! MLB Pick: Athletics +132 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Correct; +$132
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins.
Line: Rays -105.
8:10 PM ET (Game 969-970)
The Rays have struggled recently, and the same goes for their pitcher, Blake Snell. It was frustrating to see Snell even fail to get out of the first inning the last time he pitched, given that I rostered him in several Draft Kings lineups. However, Snell is a good pitcher, so I expect him to rebound. His recent struggles have lowered the price for Tampa. The computer model says the Rays win this game 63 percent of the time, yet the break-even point at -105 is 51.2 percent.
MLB Pick: Rays -105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$105
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals.
Line: Athletics +139.
8:15 PM ET (Game 977-978)
This is a great number for the Athletics. The computer model actually favors them to win, and yet they’re +139 underdogs in St. Louis. I’d be wary of this number if Oakland happened to be a big-time public dog, but that’s not the case; only 58 percent of the money is on the visitor here, which is not going to invite any shading dealings to happen, especially when considering that a team like the Padres are getting 75 percent of the cash (I considered Baltimore as a play.) At any rate, I’m betting the A’s tonight. MLB Pick: Athletics +139 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$139
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks.
Line: Diamondbacks +115.
9:40 PM ET (Game 905-906)
I used to do baseball picks a long time ago. The last baseball pick I made on this Web site was in May 2013. I quit on baseball since then, but now I’m back, thanks to Draft Kings. I think I have a firm grasp on baseball, so we’ll see how this goes. If I drop below 20 units, I’ll stop, but I think there’s a chance this could be profitable.
I’m posting two picks tonight. The first one is with Arizona. The Diamondbacks are getting Ketel Marte back from injury, which should help them against Clayton Kershaw, who doesn’t have a great history at Chase Field. The computer model says the Diamondbacks win 50 percent of the time in this matchup, yet the line is +115 at BetUS. At +115, the break-even point is 44.4 percent, so we’re getting almost 6 percent of value here, which is worth betting.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +115 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$115
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox.
Line: Red Sox -168.
7:10 PM ET (Game 911-912)
My second pick is also with a home team. The Red Sox are -168 favorites, but that number seems low. Perhaps it’s because of how great Lucas Giolito has pitched for the White Sox this season, but I think that has been a bit of a mirage. The computer model says the Red Sox win 69 percent of the time, yet at -168, the break-even point is 62.7 percent, giving us more than 6 percent of value.
MLB Pick: Red Sox -168 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$100
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