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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 20, 2:25 p.m. Follow @walterfootball
San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3)
Line: 49ers by 4. Total: 47.5.
Walt's Projected Line:
Sunday, Jan. 20, 3:00 ET
Discuss Playoff Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: 49ers.
Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I've received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball
WEEK 19 RECAP:
I don't even know where to begin. Everything I said last week was wrong. Everything. Well, almost everything. I did call the Falcons beating the Seahawks, but even then I was wrong when I was right because Atlanta somehow didn't cover despite being up 27-7 in the third quarter.
I feel like my reasoning with all four of my picks was sound going into the weekend, but apparently not. At this point, I feel like whichever side I pick will be the wrong one. For example, if I picked Patriots -9 last weekend, there's no doubt in my mind that the Texans would have covered. If I had sided with the Ravens, perhaps the shady officials would have sided with Denver. If I chose Seattle to cover, the Falcons would have prevailed by three instead of two.
It's pretty remarkable to go a combined 0-8 on sides and totals. There's a .39-percent chance of that happening if there's a 50-50 proposition of being right. As I wrote in my NFL Power Rankings
, "My brain feels like it's turned to mush after that 0-4 weekend. I could have done better flipping a coin. I actually did, really. I was so frustrated in the late afternoon game that I grabbed a quarter and flipped it four times. I went heads for home team; tails for road team. The coin landed tails (Ravens), heads (49ers), tails (Seahawks) and tails (Texans). So, I would have went 3-1 flipping a coin. How sad is that?"
Why am I doing so poorly? I can only think of two reasons:
1. I don't know what the hell I'm doing.
Maybe, but how does that explain winning every year between 2003 and 2010? I don't feel like my handicapping has changed that drastically; looking over my notes, I'm doing the same thing I did last postseason. I'm watching every game and studying just as hard as I've done over the years.
2. I'm cursed.
Don't laugh or roll your eyes. Such things exist. I've wronged someone, and now I'm paying the price.
If the second reason holds up, NFL owners should hire me to pick against their team. Fans should send me gifts for the same reason. Of course, with all of this new-found glory, I'll start selecting winning teams again, which means the owners will fire me and the gifts will stop coming in. And then things will repeat like some terrible cycle.
Anyway, I'm at a loss. My confidence is completely shaken. Like I said, if I pick one team, I know the other will cover. I just know it. Not even fading the media worked last week. Here's what it said:
1. The Texans dominated the Bengals but only won by six, so they're getting a ton of flak. No one's giving them a chance against New England, yet they have the same record.
2. Everyone is just assuming the Seahawks are going to beat the Falcons. Michael Wilbon said that Atlanta winning would be a surprise. Umm... aren't the Falcons favored?
Fading the media is 13-6-1 since Week 12 (though really 14-5-1 because the Falcons did win). As for this week, it's:
1. COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK COLIN KAEPERNICK!!!
And of course, there's...
Another week, another stack of hate mails. Here are some brief ones from my picks page comment board:
Wow Walter, 0-8 last weekend lol Good Effort!!
Thanks. I think going 0-8 requires a certain level of talent. There was only a .39-percent chance I'd get all four sides and all four totals incorrect. I managed to defy the odds!
walt you butt hurt that your picks sucked (again) 0-4 this week? and the ravens have knocked off your colts and broncos back to back for your picks of the week. respect the ravens you dumb philly clown fade walt and went 4-0 this week
Once again, my butt doesn't hurt. Matt Millen's very gentle.
walter you sucks !!!
I know, but so does your grammar, so you should probably pay more attention in your sixth-grade English class.
Monkey at a typewriter>Walter
I'll take that as a compliment. Monkeys are quite the typists.
Just pick opposite of what Walter chooses and you will win!!!!!
That's what I've been saying for weeks. You're just starting to get it now?
walter is a traitor and does not deserve to follow his PAGE., YESTERDAY INCORRECT, INCORRECT, INCORRECT, INCORRECT. TODAY INCORRECT, INCORRECT, INCORRECT, INCORRECT. WTF
I don't deserve to follow my page? What? Are you sure "INCORRECT, INCORRECT, INCORRECT..." is something you don't constantly see on your high-school test?
WALTER WORKS FOR THE SPORTSBOOK, IS VERY OBVIOUS THAT DISTORTS BET. EVERITHING IS ARRANGED. SEE NEXT WEEK AND TESTED
I don't just work for a sportsbook. I work for THE sportsbook. It sounds like this guy is on to me.
I've been following you for 3 years... sadly this is the day we part ways. Your analysis is shoddy and is reflected by your ATS record this year. Best wishes.
But... but... you can make so much money betting against me. Why are you leaving now?
Here are some hate messages on Twitter (@walterfootball
Umm... ad hominem, much? Just because I suck at betting football doesn't mean that I shouldn't get to voice my opinion!
Dude, it's the 21st century. Gay insults aren't cool anymore. It's actually considered quite cool to be gay now. An appropriate insult might have been "#vagsucka."
Meanwhile, a Mike K. sent this e-mail to me:
See? I'm helping people win money!
Despite all of this hate, I did receive some positive feedback. Here is one:
Also thanks to T.J. M. and others for the positive reinforcement throughout the rough year.
As for someone else who messages me, I have an update on the Real John Moss. The one I discussed last week posted his 2013 mock draft here
. However, I received a G-chat message from the Real John Moss saying that the Real John Moss on Facebook is an impostor. I'll have the full transcript next week.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE:
How are the Falcons possibly going to stop Colin Kaepernick? That's all anyone's wondering when it comes to this game. And that's the primary reason why everyone's betting their second mortgage on the 49ers to cover the four on the road. Kaepernick just rushed for more yards that any quarterback has compiled in a single game in the history of professional football. Meanwhile, Atlanta hasn't been able to contain read-option quarterbacks this season. In fact, they've looked downright pathetic trying to stop them.
How bad is it? Consider the combined stats of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton (two games) this year: 62-of-95 (65.3%), 887 yards (9.34 YPA), six passing touchdowns and one interception. Oh yeah, and the yards on the ground: 262 yards and three more scores. That has to be downright depressing if you're an Atlanta fan.
The way to defeat Kaepernick is to rattle him with consistent pressure and force him to throw into confusing coverages. The Falcons are capable of doing the latter - Mike Nolan did befuddle Peyton Manning in the first quarter of their Week 2 matchup, after all - but forget about that first item. Atlanta gets zero pressure on the quarterback, especially now that John Abraham is banged up. Abraham figures to play after aggravating his ankle last week, but he's definitely not 100 percent. Unless someone comes along and sprinkles some fairy dust on him, he's not going to be able to help a pathetic pass rush that has just seven sacks since Thanksgiving.
Making matters worse for the Falcons, Kaepernick's running ability will only open things up for Frank Gore, who is coming off a 119-yard performance against the Packers. Atlanta did a good job of limiting Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks to just 63 rushing yards on 21 carries this past weekend, but considering the team still ranks 23rd against the run, I'd say that was probably a fluke.
Michael Turner hasn't been completely inept this season. Oh, don't get me wrong - he's been pretty bad in most games - but he's had his moments. For instance, he and Jacquizz Rodgers combined for 162 rushing yards on just 24 carries against Seattle this past week. That 6.75 YPC clip help open things for Matt Ryan, who was able to successfully attack Seattle's vaunted secondary.
Well, Falcon fans shouldn't be counting on a repeat performance from Turner and Rodgers of any sort in this contest. Thanks to injuries to Red Bryant (hobbled all year with a foot problem) and Chris Clemons, the Seahawks didn't stand a chance of stopping the run. They finished the season ranked 29th in that department. The 49ers, on the other hand, were third. They did surrender 76 yards on 13 attempts to the Packers, but they were so completely focused on stopping Aaron Rodgers. Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback, but he's not on Rodgers' level, so San Francisco can concentrate on putting the clamps on Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers.
As for Ryan, he'll be able to beat the 49ers' secondary if he gets time in the pocket. It'll be interesting to see if San Francisco can generate pressure. The defense sacked Rodgers only once last week, but constantly hounded him in the backfield. Rodgers was able to avoid sacks with his mobility, which Ryan won't be able to do. Then again, Ryan has a much better offensive line - the unit has given up just eight sacks since Thanksgiving weekend and has really gelled together, thanks to left tackle Sam Baker finally being free from his chronic back issues.
I can make a strong case for the Falcons. No one believes in them. Everyone is overreacting to Kaepernick, with the guys on PTI
even suggesting that he's the best player in the NFL. Atlanta hasn't been impressive in many of its victories this year, but it usually finds a way to prevail. Plus, teams that score 40-plus points in the playoffs tend to struggle the following week (see trends below).
However, the 49ers have the much better team. They also have a huge edge when it comes to the coaching staff. They match up so well with the Falcons that it just doesn't seem fair.
This is a toss up for me, so I'm taking the points. This means that the 49ers will cover the spread, so make sure you put some money down on them.
E-mailer Conrad S. made a great point:
You're completely jaded over your losses this season. You know that Atlanta is the right side being a 4 point underdog in a building they only lost once in all year in a week 17 matchup that meant nothing. You're crazy for not betting... this would be a 3-4 unit selection for you if you weren't being such a little girl about a gambling cooler.
This is true. I'd take the Falcons for that amount if I had any confidence in myself. But I don't. I'm cursed for some reason.
The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
No one believes in the Falcons. Again.
The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Action has evened out a bit.
Percentage of money on San Francisco: 63% (111,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
Too Greedy: Teams that score 40-plus in the playoffs are 3-20 ATS the following week since 1996.
Matt Ryan is 24-14 ATS at home.
Falcons are 5-18 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 23 instances.
Opening Line: 49ers -3.
Opening Total: 47.5.
Week 20 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Falcons 26
Falcons +4 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
49ers 28, Falcons 24
Baltimore Ravens (12-6) at New England Patriots (13-4)
Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 49.5.
Walt's Projected Line: Patriots -7.5.
Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:30 ET
Discuss Playoff Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: .
Jerks of the Week for Jan. 14, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are Jerks of Christmas week, which include an angry black man, the state of Pennsylvania and Ted from How I Met Your Mother.
It's time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won't be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.
Well, I'm taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!
NFL.com has changed the format of these posts. They're now listed reverse chronologically, which is stupid because there are so many posts every minute. Still, I found a way around it by posting lots of messages, including:
Mario didn't see anything of the sort. If the Seahawks aren't on, it doesn't matter.
Here are posts from the Seattle-Atlanta game:
Absolutely not a joke! Gonzalez's feet were clearly out on bounce.
Zach's a jerk. So, he wants poor Mario to be lonely for the rest of his life? Just because he can't spell? Jeez.
I love how Migelini of all people call the Seahawks' comeback when they were down 20-0. He's some sort of football prodigy.
Here are some other troller posts:
Just because Robbie is from Atlantis doesn't mean you have to call him out like that, Anton.
This was an amusing thread:
I love how half the people here were discussing the possibility of a tie in the playoffs, while the other half were discussing how stupid Cowboy fans are.
This week on CBS, we're going to have Jim Nantz and Phil Simms calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those six clowns were calling this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of New England, where we will find out who the final participant in the Super Bowl will be! The Patriots take on the Ravens in what should be ab epic battle. Guys, for the first time in a long time, the Eagles don't have a great quarterback on their roster. Well, I spied a great quarterback last week when Joe Flacco beat the Broncos. Flacco is from the Philadelphia area, so he knows how great my city is. What do you think it'll take for the Eagles to get Flacco? A sixth-round pick? What say you, Emmitt?
Emmitt: Mike, I no agree on you. Why would the Baltimore want to trade Joe Johnson? He a great quarterback. In fact, in the summertime, he say he eliteness quarterback. Well, as the old sayin' go, eliteness quarterback don't grow on the cherry tree because cherry and banana grow on the cherry tree, so the Baltimore will not gived up their eliteness quarterback for a sixth pick.
Reilly: Damn it, Emmitt, you're crushing my dreams here. How about a fifth-round pick? OK, fine, a fifth-rounder and a seventh. But the seventh has to be in 2014!
Davis: Or how about a fifth this year and a sixth next year? Or a fifth this year and a fifth next year? What about a fourth this year and a seventh next year? How about a fourth this year and a sixth next year? Then there's a fourth this year and a fifth next year? How about a fourth this year and a fourth next year? Joe Flacco's a great player, gonna have to give something up for him. What about a sixth this year and a third next year? Or a sixth this year and a fourth next year? How about a third this year and a seventh next year? Then there's a third this year and a sixth next year. But what about a third this year and a fifth next year? Or even a third this year and a fourth next year?
Reilly: Charles Davis, I'm going to strangle you in your sleep. How dare you suggest that the Eagles give up two high draft choices for a quarterback as great as Flacco? What does everyone else think? Matt Millen, why are you crying? No wait, I don't want to know.
Millen: Because... because... Rob... Rob Gronkowski hurt his arm and when I asked him if he wanted to have kielbasa man sex with me and he said he was too hurt to do it waaahhhhh...
Tollefson: Millen, you're an idiot. Everyone knows that the Gronk is a hero who likes to bang super-hot porn stars.
Millen: But he's doing to hide his true desires! I know he'd want to join me and my kielbasas in my hotel room if he didn't need surgery on his arm. He told me that the doctors specifically told him not to engage in any sexual acts involving kielbasas.
Tollefson: What? But if the Gronk doesn't bang super-hot porn stars then... I... I don't know if my life has any meaning... I'll have to think about this.
Griese: Me too, I'll have to think about it too. Wait, what are we thinking about again? Who are you people?
Reilly: We're actual people who care about you, Bob. Ha! Think he believed me, you guys? We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Rob Gronkowski is out of the lineup, but no problem, right? The Patriots, after all, have won plenty of games without him, including last week's blowout victory over the Texans. Well, the numbers say otherwise. Per ESPN, the Patriots average 6.0 yards per play with Gronkowski and 5.4 without him. Tom Brady's completion percentage (65.7 with; 58.4 without) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (23-3 with; 11-6 without) also suffer when his All-Pro tight end is out of the lineup.
Having said that, the Patriots still should be able to score enough to give themselves a good chance to win. They're so multi-faceted. Brady still has an ample amount of weapons at his disposal, while the running game is the strongest he's had throughout his entire career. His offensive line has also been unbelievable. The unit has surrendered just 16 sacks dating back to Week 6, thanks to the emergence of left tackle Nate Solder, who after a mediocre start to his sophomore campaign, has shut down every single pass-rusher he's faced since the end of October.
Of course, Baltimore's defense has improved as well. The Ravens are ranked first in pass defense by a wide margin over the past four games, while their ability to get to the quarterback has improved tremendously, as rush linebacker Paul Kruger has blossomed into one of the top players at his position. It'll be interesting to see who gets the best of the matchup between him and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer because I imagine that Solder will be able to handle a hobbled Suggs quite easily.
If Brady has time to throw, he'll be lethal. If not, well, as most ESPN analysts have said in the past year or so, Brady becomes uncomfortable when he's hit (as if no one else is). Brady being able to air it out will mean a more potent ground attack because the Ravens will be too concerned about the future Hall-of-Famer beating them downfield. Baltimore has improved against ground attacks recently, but not enough that it'll be able to contain Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen while paying attention to something else.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: You have to wonder... Eli Manning said he was elite prior to the 2011 season, and even though everyone laughed at him, he went on to win the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco did the same thing this summer, and everyone laughed harder. OK, Eli? Sure - because he already had a Lombardi Trophy. But Flacco? Come on, man. How could he possibly consider himself elite?
Well, it appears as though Flacco may have the last laugh after all. He's been dreadful at times this year, but it's amazing how much he's turned it on in the playoffs. The transformation has been remarkable. His numbers during the regular season are mediocre - the 22:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio is nice, but he maintained a 7.2 YPA on a 59.7 completion percentage. In the playoffs, however, Flacco's YPA has soared to 10.8, and he's tossed five scores to just zero picks. His completion percentage is worse (52.6%), but that's because he's launched so many deep bombs. He's improved enough to validate the big contract he's been pining for all year.
The difference isn't just Flacco. The offensive line has been tremendous. Bryant McKinnie's insertion into the starting lineup at the left tackle position has been tremendous. With Michael Oher moved over to right tackle and Kelechi Osemele inside, Baltimore has given up just two sacks to the pass-rushing quartet of Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. That's pretty amazing, and the awesome blocking should continue because New England's ability to get to the quarterback isn't exactly devastating. It's not a bad pass-rush, but it's nothing that Baltimore's improved offensive line can't handle.
If Flacco is granted tons of time in the pocket, as expected, he'll have tons of success against a vulnerable New England secondary. It'll also open things up for Ray Rice, who gained 101 yards and a touchdown on just 20 carries against the Patriots back in Week 3. That was a long time ago, and the Patriots' defense has improved since then, but so has Baltimore's offensive line. Besides, Houston just averaged more than four yards per carry versus New England last week.
RECAP: With Gronkowski out, I'd say these are two evenly matched teams. In fact, the Ravens have had New England's number of late, coming within a dropped Lee Evans pass of advancing to the Super Bowl last year. This spread is ridiculously high, so I love Baltimore. There are two things that are keeping me from wagering four or five units on the visitor, however:
1. Bill Belichick's record against teams he's lost to the same season is phenomenal (see trends below).
2. I'm cursed. Because I'm taking the Ravens +9, New England is a lock to cover.
SURVIVOR PICK: The two obvious choices are the Patriots and 49ers. I don't suggest picking road teams, so New England it is.
FINAL THOUGHTS: A good play in this game might be the under. It's going to be windy in Foxborough, which will affect the passing and kicking games. I still like the Ravens a lot.
The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
No one believes in the Ravens. Again.
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
The Ravens are a publicly bet underdog.
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (106,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
Too Greedy: Teams that score 40-plus in the playoffs are 3-20 ATS the following week since 1996.
Big Championship Dog: Favorites of 7+ in conference championships are 3-8 ATS since 1997.
Patriots are 26-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
Bill Belichick is 11-3 ATS against a team after losing to them the same year.
Tom Brady is 147-48 as a starter (113-77 ATS).
Tom Brady is 17-6 in the playoffs (10-13 ATS).
Tom Brady is 20-26 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (10-19 ATS since November 2007).
Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.
Opening Total: 51.
Weather: Clear, 36 degrees. Mild wind, 20 mph.
Week 20 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Ravens 23
Ravens +8 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
Under 49.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Ravens 28, Patriots 13
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Jan. 16
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)