NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 12, 4:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 5.5. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): 49ers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): 49ers -4.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

My friend Rellik put together a hilariously awesome football rap song, where he makes fun of several players, including Hines Ward, whom he calls a “dancing queen.” There’s also a slight reference to this site at some point in the song. See if you can find it.

Also, I’ve received plenty of e-mails and Facebook messages from people asking me if/when Emmitt on the Brink will be back. Well, I’m happy to announce that the Season 4 premiere of Emmitt on the Brink will be posted this weekend. Emmitt has retired as head coach of the Patriots, but I have something new and exciting in store for him. Stay tuned.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Alex Smith won’t go away. His fans hate him. His starting receiver hates him. Fantasy players hate him because he destroys the value of those on his team. Yet, he continues to start for the 49ers. Why, God, why?

The 49ers won’t have much luck scoring points in this contest. They obviously run the ball better than anything, but the Seahawks excel at stopping the rush, thanks to all the 320-pound bodies they carry on their defensive front. If you don’t believe me, Frank Gore rushed for just 38 yards on 17 carries in his one meeting against Seattle last year.

With Gore presumably stymied, Smith will be asked to continuously convert third-and-long situations. I don’t see him doing that, considering that the offensive line is garbage and Smith is learning a new offense for the billionth time in his career.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’s difficult to say which team has the quarterback advantage. Smith stinks, but he’s still more talented than Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson knows the system, however, so I’d say the Seahawks have the edge – if you can call it that.

Like the 49ers, the Seahawks have a terrible offensive front. However, they may have more success running the football than San Francisco because nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin left for New Orleans.

If Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett and Leon Washington can find some room on the ground, perhaps Jackson and the Seattle offense won’t suck as much as most people think they will. But they’ll still suck.

RECAP: The Seahawks are one of my three largest plays this week. Three important reasons:

1. This point spread is skewed. There is no way the 49ers are three points better than Seattle. Both of these teams are terrible, and San Francisco shouldn’t be a field goal favorite over anyone.

2. The Six and Six rule applies. Since 2002, teams that have gone 6-10 or worse are just 22-61 against the spread when laying at least six points (3-12 in 2010). I have a hard time believing that San Francisco will win seven or more games.

(Note: This spread has dropped to -5.5 as I was writing this, so I’m going with a unit less than I planned to).

3. Here’s a cool trend: Teams playing a divisional road game attempting to avenge a loss of 14-plus points are 72-47 against the spread since 2002. The 49ers trashed the Seahawks in their second meeting last year, 40-21, so this angle applies.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
Early action on the 49ers, but it’s evened out.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 64% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.

Big Dog Dominance: Divisional underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 20-9 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 15, Seahawks 13
Seahawks +5.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 33, Seahawks 17

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 7. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Cardinals -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Cardinals -7.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

This is a friendly reminder that you can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link and follow the rules. Entry is free, so make sure you sign up for a chance to win $350.

Also, feel free to create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s deemed good enough by this Web site’s editor, it’ll be listed in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton is raw. His mechanics stink. He’s inaccurate. He’s not ready to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. And yet, he’s a billion times better than what the Panthers had at quarterback last year.

Newton is not going to throw well this season, but he’ll spark Carolina offense by running around and making things happen, much like Vince Young did with the Titans back in 2006. Arizona’s defense will have to worry about Newton’s scrambles, which will open things up for DeAngelo Williams. The Cardinals ranked 27th against the run last year, so Williams was due for a breakout performance anyway.

Williams will presumably break off big gains, which should be enough for Newton to complete some passes and move the chains to keep up with the Cardinals on the scoreboard. Speaking of which…

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb has had an up-and-down preseason. He’s looked great at times, particularly on a deep bomb to Larry Fitzgerald in the third preseason game. However, he’s missed receivers as well. But as with Newton and the Panthers, he’s a billion times better than what the Cardinals had last year.

With Kolb under center, Carolina will have to respect the pass. This will open up big holes for Chris Wells against a defense that has major issues up front. The defensive tackles are terrible, while the defensive ends, save for Charles Johnson, offer no pass rush.

Assuming Wells is gashing the Panthers’ stop unit, Kolb will enjoy third-and-short situations with a clean pocket. There’s no excuse for the Cardinals to score fewer than 24 points in this contest.

RECAP: Both offenses should be able to put up points, so I’m taking the underdog. Besides, I don’t think the Cardinals deserve to be favored by a touchdown over anyone just yet. Kolb is still learning the system, while the defense is pretty shaky.

LOCKED IN: I don’t think this line will get any better than +7.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

There’s tons of action on the Cardinals. No one believes in Cam Newton?

Percentage of money on Arizona: 79% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Panthers 20
Panthers +7 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Over 37 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 28, Panthers 21

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 8.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Chargers -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Chargers -9.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 5, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Watermelon Woman and Meatball Man. 2) Hurricane Irene. 3) Toure.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Vikings are at a huge disadvantage in this matchup, and I don’t think it’s been factored into the spread, because the line has been sitting at nine for a while.

Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kevin Williams has been suspended for two games. That’s huge. With Williams gone, Minnesota returns only one starter from the defensive line. Considering that this was the strength of the stop unit last year, that’s not good…

Especially against Philip Rivers. It’ll be very difficult for Minnesota to pressure Rivers with just Jared Allen up front, so I really don’t see the Vikings slowing down San Diego’s offense at all. Rivers is just too good to be allowed to operate with a clean pocket.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The question then becomes, can the Vikings keep up with the Chargers on the scoreboard? I say no.

The big issue for the Vikings is the offensive line. It’s a mess. Left tackle Charles Johnson, in particular, is really bad. There’s no way in hell Johnson will be able to keep Shaun Phillips out of the backfield, and Donovan McNabb is not the scrambler he used to be.

To neutralize San Diego’s pass rush, the Vikings will have to establish Adrian Peterson. Considering that the Chargers ranked fifth against the run last year, that’s easier said than done.

RECAP: The Chargers pretty much have an edge at nearly every position. They should beat Minnesota pretty easily. I just don’t know why so many people expect this to be a close game. Perhaps it’s because San Diego is renowned for starting slowly. But even last year, they took care of business at home, beating Jacksonville, 38-13, and Arizona, 41-10. They had their issues on the road.

SURVIVOR PICK: There is no better survivor option than San Diego this week. They’re the pick.

I was asked to list six possible survivor choice each week, so here they are, from best to worst: Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Texans (even though I have them losing), Patriots and Packers. As always, never pick a road team (which is why the Patriots are so low). Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action after early money on the visitor.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 55% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 38, Vikings 17
Chargers -8.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (0-0)
Chargers 24, Vikings 17

New York Giants (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Giants -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Giants -3.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “i been loking at pitcher of revis all day …..black g.i joe”

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

2. “what the feet went wrong with the jets”

This has to be the worst Rex Ryan joke of all time.

3. “jets are a soft 9-3 u guys basiaclly lost agianst the lions then u guys got basiacally humiliated by the pats who do uthink ur gongi to have to go threw to get to the superbowl lol if u perform like that then u guys wont do mcuhin the playoffs u guys lost agianst the ravens and patroit and already jets are a soft 9-3 ur three losses u guys scored 4 point in each game lol thats pathedic”

The Jets got humiliated by the Pats, just as this person has been humiliated by the English language.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Rex Grossman was named the starting quarterback Monday afternoon, which was pretty predictable for anyone who watched the Redskins this preseason. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Grossman was fantastic. He didn’t make mistakes, and he was accurate with his throws. He even converted a third-and-long against Baltimore’s defense for a touchdown in the two-minute drill.

We’ve seen this before though – Mike Shanahan did the exact same thing with another turnover-prone quarterback named Jake Plummer. Plummer was lost when he went to the Broncos in 2003, yet Shanahan transformed him into a serviceable starter. It looks like he’s doing the same thing with Grossman.

The Redskins are not to be taken lightly. The offensive line has performed well this preseason, blasting open huge holes for Tim Hightower, who fits Shanahan’s blocking scheme perfectly. With Hightower presumably running well, Grossman should be able to utilize the Shanahan-patented play-action bootleg and attack a Giants secondary that is in shambles right now.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While Grossman was solid this preseason, Eli Manning really struggled with his accuracy. And here I thought someone as good as Tom Brady was supposed to be able to hit most of his passes.

The Redskins should be able to pressure Manning and force some more poor throws. Brian Orakpo easily has the matchup advantage over William Beatty. The interior of New York’s offensive line is also questionable, as two starters are gone from last year.

The Giants will have to take shield Manning by establishing Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. They should be able to do that; Washington had issues containing Ray Rice in the third week of the preseason.

RECAP: Unless the preseason was a complete mirage, the Redskins are playing better football then the Giants are right now. Manning inexplicably has just been really off, while Grossman has stepped up his game with great offensive coaching.

This point spread is telling us that New York is six points better than Washington. I don’t believe they are, so I’m going with the home dog.

LOCKED IN: You can’t get +3 anymore, but +3 -115 is available at Bodog. I’d rather have +3 -115 than +2.5 -110. The extra five cents on the dollar is worth it to get that key number.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Lots of action on the visitor early on, but it’s evened out.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Giants are 27-14 ATS on the road since 2006.

Redskins are 5-10 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 23, Giants 20
Redskins +3 -115 (1 Unit) — Correct; $100
Over 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 28, Giants 14

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Jets by 6. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Jets -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Jets -3.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “since this is a division game we all no what expect”

Just like we “no what expect” from GameCenter: missing words, poor grammar and incoherent thoughts.

2. “im suprised r running gain rocks today”

I’m surprised you know how to use a computer.

3. “will ahsselbeck b bak????????”

I don’t think you have enough question marks there, bud.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The only thing ESPN has been focusing on regarding the Jets this offseason has been the addition of Plaxico Burress. Well, unlike ESPN, I’m not here to dumb things down for you. The big issue with New York is its protection problems, most notably at right tackle.

Wayne Hunter has been terrible this preseason, and as a result, Mark Sanchez has not been able to enjoy a clean pocket very often. That’s bad news for the Jets, as Rob Ryan has been planning on how to expose this weakness ever since Damien Woody announced his retirement. You can bet that DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff will harass Sanchez early and often.

The Jets will have to keep pounding the ball with Shonn Greene early and often. Dallas was 22nd against the run in 2010, so Greene should have a big game.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Both of these scoring units are going to have issues protecting the quarterback. The Cowboys have even more of a problem, as three starters from their offensive line are gone from last year. As with his brother Rob, Rex has great game plan up his sleeve to disrupt Tony Romo.

The difference between the two teams is that Romo has great offensive weapons to work with. Whereas Sanchez just has Santonio Holmes (Burress stinks), Romo has the luxury of throwing to two elite receivers and an All-Pro tight end. An improved Felix Jones is also a much better option coming out of the backfield than LaDainian Tomlinson.

RECAP: I think this is a pretty evenly matched game, which has me wondering why the Jets are favored by four. These teams are even, so New York should be laying three. That’s why I’m picking the visitor.

UNIT CHANGE: Dallas has so many injuries that I’m dropping this to zero units. I don’t want to take New York at -5, but I can’t recommend betting on the Cowboys either.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Close to equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 51% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Tony Romo is 25-17 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 9-4 ATS as a starter in September.

Jets are 6-11 ATS in September home games since 2000 (3-1 since in 2009).

Opening Line: Jets -4.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Cowboys 14
Cowboys +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 27, Cowboys 24

New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Patriots -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Patriots -7.
Monday, Sept. 12, 7:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Thursday morning each week (Wednesday this week).

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: In the Week 17 battle between these two teams last year, the Patriots essentially scored at will. Even Brian Hoyer lit up Miami’s secondary. And I’ll be shocked if the Patriots don’t have as much success in this contest.

Tom Brady simply has too many weapons for Miami to handle. The only way you can stop Brady is to do what the Jets did in the playoffs and what the Lions were able to accomplish in Week 3 of the preseason – overload Brady with pressure and completely disrupt the offense. Miami had 38 sacks in 2010, but only four in the final three weeks.

Someone has to step up for the Dolphins. There’s Cameron Wake, who is coming off a 14-sack campaign, but the team lacks a No. 2 pass-rusher. Brady and Bill Belichick should have no problem accounting for one premiere pass-rusher, so I don’t see the Dolphins slowing the Patriots down at all.

MIAMI OFFENSE: With Brady presumably leading the Patriots to at least 27 points, the Dolphins will need to keep up on the scoreboard. That’s not going to happen.

There are three issues here. The most glaring is the offensive line. Miami has nothing at right tackle, a hobbled player at right guard and a rookie at center. Considering that New England’s defensive front is comprised of Pro Bowl talents like Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter joining Vince Wilfork, the Patriots will be able to put tons of pressure on the quarterback.

Speaking of which, the second problem is Chad Henne. Henne is physically talented, so he has his moments. However, he’s incredibly inconsistent and is fully capable of throwing interceptions like there’s no tomorrow. I can’t help to think what’ll happen with Haynesworth and Carter in his face all night.

The final worry for Miami is the lack of a running game. Reggie Bush is a nice weapon as a receiver coming out of the backfield, but he poses no threat in between the tackles. Rookie Daniel Thomas doesn’t either.

RECAP: This should be a blowout. The Patriots are one of the top teams in the league, while the Dolphins figure to finish with five or fewer wins.

Speaking of which, crappy divisional home teams fare poorly against the spread. I can’t prove that specifically in a situation this early, but home divisional dogs that are at least five games under .500 are 26-45 against the spread since 2002. I have to believe that Miami will have five more losses than wins at some point this season.

SPREAD CHANGE: The line has dropped from -7 to -6.5. There’s not much of a difference between those two spreads though, since we’re only risking a push at -7. I’m willing to wait on a possible -6 spread. If it drops to -6, pounce on the Patriots.

LOCKED IN: All right, we took a chance, and the spread never dropped to -6. Lock this in at -7 (-105 in most books). I’d hate to have -7.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Everyone and their mom is betting on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 86% (152,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Patriots have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Big Dog Dominance: Divisional underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 20-9 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Patriots are 34-19 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 122-39 as a starter (94-63 ATS).

Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS at Miami.

Dolphins are 31-23 SU in September since 1994.

Dolphins are 12-7 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Tony Sparano is 1-2 SU/ATS on Kickoff Weekend.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Dolphins 13
Patriots -7 -105 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 38, Dolphins 24
MISSING

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Broncos -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Broncos -3.
Monday, Sept. 12, 10:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’ll be able to watch two games. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Denver, home of… you know what, guys? I’m so pissed off that ESPN is making me the play-by-play guy again. My precious Eagles are playing in St. Louis, and yet I’m stuck in this hell hole. I’m leaving to go be with my Eagles.

Emmitt: But Karl, this is the first time Don Turnerfson gonna’ broadcast the game for the first time. He do not even know what he is doin or sayin!

Herm: No clue! No idea! Not gonna know what to do! Not gonna know what to say! Not gonna… uhh…

Reilly: Shut the f*** up, Herm! I hate your f***ing guts! I’m leaving now. So long, suckers!

Tollefson: Welcome to Denver, home of the Broncos. Guys, I was on Google the other day, and I saw a picture of Tim Tebow with a big-breasted woman. If she cooks and cleans, she’ll be the perfect package for Tim.

Emmitt: Todd, I do not believe the girl can be package, because package typically a box or a bag, but when I look at the girl, she do not look like a package.

Millen: Speaking of packages, I set up a camera in Darren McFadden’s hotel room, and boy does he have a big package. I’m talking, 200-percent USDA Man, guys.

Herm: That’s creepy! That’s sneaky! That’s sly! That’s devious! That’s uhh…

Reilly: We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors! I hate Herm so much that I had to come back and interrupt him.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Jason Campbell has a tough task ahead of him because he’ll have to deal with Doom and Gloom. That’s what Denver’s two pass-rushers have been nicknamed, and they’ve definitely lived up to it in the preseason. Both Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller did a great job getting after every quarterback they’ve faced.

The Raiders once again have issues up front, particularly at left tackle, which is bad news for Campbell. Even worse, Campbell hasn’t been able to work with Jacoby Ford much this offseason because the wideout has been hurt.

Fortunately, Campbell has Darren McFadden returning from an eye injury. McFadden will have to be utilized early and often to keep Campbell out of unfavorable passing situations. That shouldn’t be a problem, since the Broncos are starting the mediocre Brodrick Bunkley and Kevin Vickerson at defensive tackle.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Raiders did a great job of pressuring the quarterback last year, but I don’t see that being the case this season with Nnamdi Asomugha gone. Asomugha indirectly bolstered Oakland’s pass rush by forcing coverage sacks. His absence will have a profound impact on the entire stop unit; not just the secondary.

Meanwhile, the run defense, which was pretty bad last year (24th), will continue to struggle. The Broncos are now a more run-oriented team with John Fox on the sidelines, so Denver should have success moving the chains via the ground attack. That’ll set up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Orton, who has to be thrilled not to face Asomugha twice a year.

RECAP: I don’t have any angles, trends or systems for you, so this will be a low-unit selection. But I like the Broncos. I think they’re the better team. I really feel like people are underestimated how much of an impact Asomugha’s departure will have on Oakland’s entire roster. It was the same thing when Albert Haynesworth left the Titans; a team doesn’t take a small step back when losing a dominant player like that. The effect will be enormous.

LOCKED IN: This spread is rising and could be -3.5 by kickoff. You can still get -3 -115 at Bodog, and I’d rather have -3 -115 than -3.5 -110.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Slight action on the host.

Percentage of money on Denver: 61% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Road Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings (Raiders 8-2 ATS since 2006).

Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 15-5 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Broncos are 10-29 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 22-11 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 33 instances.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 17
Broncos -3 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 23, Broncos 20

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Saints at Packers, Lions at Buccaneers, Falcons at Bears, Bills at Chiefs, Colts at Texans, Eagles at Rams, Steelers at Ravens, Bengals at Browns, Titans at Jaguars

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Bills +200 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline Underdog: Rams +180 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Seahawks +210 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Cowboys +210 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Teaser: Chargers -2.5, Patriots -0.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Small Parlay: Bills +5.5, Colts +9, Titans +1, Seahawks +5.5, Patriots -7 (.5 Units to win 11.7) — Incorrect; -$50

2011 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)