2018 NFL Mock Draft – Overreaction

Monday, Jan. 1, 2018.
2018 NFL Mock DRAFT – WALT’S | CHARLIE’S
Charlie Campbell was a senior writer at PewterReport.com.
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Back to Overreaction 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-16

Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Wilkins, DT/3-4DE/NT, Clemson
The Chargers could use more interior talent on their defensive line for Gus Bradley’s defense. Here’s a big speedy three-technique to help free up Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Corey Liuget has been declining over the past few seasons, and Los Angeles could get out of his contract with big savings by cutting him after this season.

Wilkins has 45 tackles with seven for a loss and four sacks this season. He has been disruptive at the point of attack, showing speed to create havoc behind the line of scrimmage. Wilkins is a great athlete for his size and has the versatility to play a variety of techniques. The 6-foot-4, 310-pounder has a nice skill set with upside and could also fit as a 3-4 defensive end.

Wilkins played well for Clemson in 2016 as part of a tough defensive line that controlled the point of attack. The sophomore totaled 48 tackles with 13 tackles for a loss, 3.5 sacks and 10 passes batted on the year. Because of injuries, Wilkins played a lot of defensive end. He showed nice athleticism and versatility, but is at his best on the inside, using his mismatch speed against guards. Wilkins made 33 tackles and two sacks as a freshman in 2015.

Carolina Panthers: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
TRADE! Carolina moves up with Seattle. The Panthers have two third-round picks, while the Seahawks are without a second- or third-round pick.

Carolina could use a No. 1 receiver for Cam Newton. Here’s a big wide out to replace Kelvin Benjamin.

In 2017, Sutton recorded 68 catches for 1,085 yards with 12 touchdowns. He totaled 76 receptions in 2016 for 1,246 yards – a 16.5-yard average – with 10 touchdowns in 2016. The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder has size to him, and in 2015, he showed big-play ability by averaging 17.6 yards per catch. For the year, the redshirt freshman totaled 862 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 receptions.

Scouting sources really like Sutton and think he is a mismatch weapon. One playoff general manager said they loved Sutton and thought he could end up becoming the best receiver from his draft class. Another scouting director told WalterFootball.com that, in studying up on players before hitting the road for college training camps before the 2016 season, Sutton’s tape really stood out, and he continued to impress them in 2016. Sutton is a long-strider, and sources say his speed is comparable to TCU’s Josh Doctson, who the Redskins took in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Dallas Cowboys: Justin Reid, S, Stanford
The Cowboys could use an upgrade at safety. Here’s a well-rounded defender who could help them quickly.

The 6-foot-1, 204-pound Reid played really well in 2017, impressing NFL scouts. Sources who are tough graders said they thought Reid had first-round potential for the 2018 NFL Draft. They say that Reid doesn’t have Earl Thomas-like range as a free safety or Kam Chancellor-like size as a strong safety, but he does everything well. Reid is a good free or strong safety with the ability to run and tackle. They say that he is a polished, clean, good all-around safety similar to HaHa Clinton-Dix coming out of Alabama.

Reid recorded 99 tackles with six passes broken up and five interceptions in 2017. He totaled 57 tackles with seven breakups in 2016. The junior is the younger brother of 49ers safety Eric Reid, a first-round pick out of LSU in 2013.

Detroit Lions: Taven Bryan, DT/3-4DE, Florida
The Lions grab a three-technique and interior pass-rusher to go with A’Shawn Robinson. Here’s a versatile defensive lineman who is a great athlete. Bryan could help Detroit in a variety of places.

Bryan (6-4, 295) broke out in 2017 with 40 tackles with six tackles for a loss and four sacks. In speaking with some scouting sources, Bryan has drawn comparisons to the Chiefs’ Chris Jones or the Broncos’ Derek Wolfe. Some announcers have compared the 6-foot-4, 295-pound Bryan to J.J. Watt, and in terms of style of play, Bryan is reminiscent of Watt, although not consistently. Bryan has a tremendous get-off with serious explosion off the snap. He also has developed strength with active hands to shed blocks. Given his length, Bryan can play end or tackle, plus be an ideal candidate for five-technique.

I heard from sources a while ago that Bryan was going to declare for the 2018 NFL Draft, and scouting contacts project him to the first or second round. Bryan is a great athlete who is big, strong, fast and agile. He had a late start in football, however, from growing up Wyoming, and that shows up in him not demonstrating good instincts. Bryan is inconsistent while lacking feel and pass-rushing moves. Considering his late start in football, he would have likely been better off in his long-term football career to return to school and gain playing experience before going to the NFL and taking on pro offensive linemen. Some team sources have told me they were grading Bryan as a second-rounder, but think he could end up being a first-round pick because of his great skill set, which is expected to shine at the NFL Scouting Combine and in pre-draft workouts.

Buffalo Bills: Da’Ron Payne, DT/NT, Alabama
The Bills could use an interior defensive line disruptor to replace the traded Marcel Dareus. Kyle Williams is also nearing the end of an excellent career.

Payne has dominated at the point of attack this season, stuffing runs while showcasing his freakish speed and athleticism. In 2017, he has 45 tackles, two sacks and a pass batted. I’ve heard general managers and scouts raving about Payne this year.

Scouts were already raving about Payne’s potential in the preseason. He has been the Crimson Tide’s best defensive lineman in 2017, following Jonathan Allen’s moving on to the NFL. Payne (6-2, 319) is a run plugger with a lot of potential to grow. When given the opportunity to rush the passer in 2016, Payne was impressive, and sources have said that he helped set up sacks for Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson that season.

Tennessee Titans: Austin Bryant, DE/3-4OLB, Clemson
The Titans could use more edge rush and talent in their front seven.

Scouting sources told me they felt that Bryant has been playing his way into being a first-round-caliber prospect this season. He has been a dynamic speed rusher and a pass-rushing force for one of the best defenses in college football. In 2017, Bryant has 7.5 sacks with 47 tackles, 14.5 for a loss, one interception and two forced fumbles. He added to his sack total against Boston College and was a key contributor to Clemson limiting the Eagles to only seven points. The 6-foot-5, 265-pound Bryant is putting together a strong junior year that could have his name being called on the opening night of the 2018 NFL Draft.

Atlanta Falcons: Sam Hubbard, DE/3-4OLB, Ohio State
The Falcons grab a third edge rusher to rotate with Takk McKinley and Vic Beasley. They could use an end with size to help keep those speed rushers fresh for all four quarters.

Hubbard totaled 42 tackles, seven sacks, 13.5 tackles for a loss and two forced fumbles in 2017. In 2016, he collected 46 tackles with eight for a loss, 3.5 sacks and two passes batted. While rotating into the game as a sophomore, Hubbard showed his potential with 6.5 sacks. He also had 28 tackles with an interception that season.

The 6-foot-5, 266-pounder has a great skill set, but doesn’t produce up to it. Hubbard has a serious combination of size, speed, and athletic ability that should help him to rise during the pre-draft workouts, however. Some team sources feel that Hubbard was an underachiever and should have had a lot more production over his collegiate career.

Seattle Seahawks: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
TRADE! Seattle moves down with Carolina. The Panthers have two third-round picks, while the Seahawks are without a second- or third-round pick.

Luke Joeckel starts for the Seahawks at guard. I don’t think much more really needs to be said. If they take a tackle like McGlinchey, they could put him on the right side and move Germain Ifedi inside to upgrade over Joeckel. Additionally, left tackle Duane Brown was completely dominated by the Rams, and given his age – turning 33 next preseason -, having another left tackle option might be a necessity.

McGlinchey has blocked well for Notre Dame overall in 2017, less a few rough plays versus Miami and Georgia. The 6-foot-7, 310-pounder is a tough run blocker and has been part of a good Notre Dame line for years. The senior has good enough feet and athletic ability to get depth in his kick slide and cut off speed rushers. As a run blocker, he can get movement at the point of attack. McGlinchey flashes heavy hands to push defenders out of their gaps and open holes for his back. He also has a nice ability to bend at the knee, and that in combination with his feet, keeps him from having to reach after edge rushers. McGlinchey uses his strength to sustain blocks and has developed good hand placement. His performance in 2017 and 2016 protecting Notre Dame’s quarterbacks is evidence that he is a future starting left tackle in the NFL and a first-round pick.

McGlinchey was very impressive at left tackle for the Fighting Irish in 2016. He looked natural in pass protection, and one wouldn’t have thought that he wasn’t playing the position before that season. In 2015, McGlinchey showed well as a right tackle and displayed a more physical style of play than former Notre Dame left tackle Ronnie Stanley. The main area that McGlinchey really needed to improve was his repeated problem with false starts as a junior. McGlinchey seems to have fixed that as a senior.

Buffalo Bills: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
This is the Chiefs’ first-round pick traded to Buffalo when Kansas City moved up to pick No. 10 of the 2017 NFL Draft for Pat Mahomes. The the Bills’ actions indicate that they really don’t view Tyrod Taylor as the future and their long-term starter. I think the new regime in Buffalo will target its own quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft.

In speaking to multiple teams, they had second-day grades on Mayfield, but that doesn’t mean he won’t go in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. In speaking to one playoff general manager, they thought Mayfield could go in the bottom of the first round, behind the top quarterback prospects.

Mayfield (6-2, 214) is a gritty gunslinger who has an “it” factor to his game. He doesn’t have a strong arm, but it is good enough to make the throws required in the NFL. One of Mayfield’s most impressive strengths as a passer is being able to locate the ball well and throw receivers open. He is very good with his timing and trajectory on passes to hit receivers on the run and set them up for lots of yards after the catch. Mayfield is very skilled to loft in touch passes downfield and throws a very catchable ball. He has excellent mobility to dodge sacks, escape pressure and extend plays with his feet, plus throws well on the run.

Sources say Mayfield can have issues reading defenses, and his field vision needs to improve. One big area of focus for Mayfield is his footwork as he gets happy feet in the pocket. One college scouting director told me that Mayfield’s feet are terrible and he will need a lot of development there for the NFL. A NFC general manager said they have concerns about how Mayfield will perform when teams force him to stay in the pocket. They also have concerns that Mayfield beat up on a lot of weak Big XII defenses and feel there is the chance that he gets exposed against NFL defenses. Evaluators who have seen Mayfield in person would estimate him to be around 5-foot-11 or 6-foot. While there have been some successful short quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, that is the exception to the norm for quarterbacks who are below 6-foot-2.

Mayfield has completed 71 percent of his passes in 2017 for 4,340 yards with 41 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also has put up five rushing touchdowns. In 2016, Mayfield completed 71 percent of his passes for 3,965 yards with 40 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He picked up six rushing touchdowns as well.

Cleveland Browns: Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn
TRADE! Cleveland moves back into the first round from pick No. 33 in a trade with Jacksonville.

The Browns could use more cornerback talent after cutting Joe Haden, and they need a true No.1 corner. Here, Cleveland grab a defensive back with an excellent skill set.

Davis (6-1, 203) is a good corner who has size, length and press-man ability. He has nice quickness in the short part of the field and can battle big wideouts. Davis is a physical defender who really competes, but he does struggle with deep speed. The junior has 36 tackles with 11 passes broken up, one forced fumble and an interception in 2017. As a sophomore, he totaled 46 tackles, 10 passes broken up, one forced fumble and zero interceptions. Davis recorded three interceptions with 56 tackles and eight passes broken up as a freshman.

Los Angeles Rams: Donte Jackson, CB, LSU
The Rams could use a corner upgrade across from Trumaine Johnson, and the position will be a huge need if he isn’t signed to a long-term contract. Here’s a corner who has some similarities to Janoris Jenkins, one of the astute picks by Les Snead.

Jackson is a bit of a love/hate prospect as some scouts say they see him as a first-rounder and others think he belongs on Day 2 because of playing discipline and size. However, all the scouts say Jackson is extremely fast, so he will be a good matchup corner to line up against speed receivers. The 5-foot-11, 175-pounder is athletic to run the route and prevent separation, but he is a gambler and could stand to play with more discipline for the pros. Scouts tell me that Jackson is talented, but has a ton of issues to work on, and that might include some hard lessons versus pro receivers. Still, he has great speed and serious coverage skills to run the route and prevent separation. Jackson is a track star and is expected to run an eye-popping 40 time that could push him higher. The scouts who like Jackson compare him to Janoris Jenkins, and Jenkins would have been a first-rounder had it not been for off-the-field issues.

Jackson totaled 46 tackles with 10 passes broken up and an interception in 2017. As a sophomore, he recorded 39 tackles with eight pass breakups and two interceptions.

New Orleans Saints: Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia
I thought Stephone Anthony had major bust potential, and unfortunately for the Saints, that feeling was proven right. The Saints could use an upgrade at Will linebacker, and Smith would form a talented tandem if Alex Anzalone can finally avoid injury. Given Anzalone’s fragile health, drafting a linebacker makes even more sense for New Orleans.

Smith (6-1, 225) is a linebacker who has impressed some scouting sources, who have compared him to the Falcons’ recent second-day picks of the LSU duo of Deion Jones and Duke Riley, except they say that Smith is better than either Jones or Riley. These sources feel Smith is more on a par with Lavonte David coming out of Nebraska. There is no doubt that Smith is a fast and physical linebacker who flies around the field.

Smith has 113 tackles with 5.5 sacks, one forced fumble and two passes batted in 2017. Last season, he led Georgia in tackles with 95. Smith also had five tackles for a loss, one pass batted and two forced fumbles that year.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama
The Steelers could use a safety to pair with Sean Davis.

In 2017, Harrison has 68 tackles with three interceptions, three sacks and three passes batted. He has played really well this year as an enforcer in the middle of the field. Aside from coverage issues, Harrison had a quality 2016 season as the strong safety when he totaled 86 tackles with seven passes broken up and two interceptions.

Harrison (6-3, 216) is a tough run defender who has the athletic skills to cover, but he has issues covering receivers in man coverage. Team sources have said an example of that is Clemson’s Hunter Renfrow really abusing Harrison in the past, and that is why Minkah Fitzpatrick is the coverage safety for the Crimson Tide. Playing zone in the middle of the field is a better fit for Harrison. Because of some coverage limitations, Harrison is a strong safety type for the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings: Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida
The Vikings could use a young corner to replace Terrance Newman.

Hughes started out his collegiate career at North Carolina before transferring to Central Florida. The 5-foot-11, 185-pounder has impressed some evaluators with his coverage skills, and he has been a big part of the Knights putting together a 11-0 record. Hughes has five interceptions, 11 passes broken up, with a forced fumble and 44 tackles thus far in 2017. He also has been a dangerous kick returner with two scores and punt returner including a punt return touchdown.

Some teams have given Hughes a second-round grade. Others who aren’t as high on him felt he should go back to Central Florida for 2018 to improve before going pro, but they also acknowledged that corners are in demand and go quickly in the draft, so they see the second round as possible for him if he enters the 2018 NFL Draft.

New England Patriots: Harold Landry, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Boston College
The Patriots could use more young talent for their front seven and more pass rush off the edge.

In 2017, Landry totaled 38 tackles with 8.5 tackles for a loss, five sacks and two passes broken up. The senior was manhandled by Notre Dame, struggling against a freshman right tackle and, on a few snaps, against left tackle Mike McGlinchey. Landry was moderately better, but still underwhelming, against Clemson. He missed the final four games with an ankle injury.

The 6-foot-3, 250-pound Landry had an impressive junior season as an edge rusher for Boston College, recording 16.5 sacks, 22 tackles for a loss, seven forced fumbles, four passes batted and 51 tackles. He contributed as a sophomore with 60 stops and 4.5 sacks. Landry would fit best as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL.

New York Jets: Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
TRADE! The Jets trade back into the first round in a deal with Philadelphia.

I love this draft for the Jets. They end up getting two explosive play-makers who complement each other extremely well and will make them very difficult to defend. With the speed of Lamar Jackson and Bryce Love, defenses are going to get gashed. Additionally, New York could use a running back upgrade as Matt Forte is nearing the end of his excellent career.

I had Love in my 2019 NFL Mock Draft because he is a first-year starter, but I hear he’s likely to declare for the 2018 NFL Draft instead. Team sources say that Love is better than other smaller backs who have gone in the first round, like David Wilson or Jahvid Best. They think that Love is more on a par with Chris Johnson coming out of East Carolina, except Love isn’t as straight-line fast as Johnson, but possesses more elusiveness and moves in the open field.

While Love is extremely fast, he is a tougher running back than one would think given his size. He has excellent balance and is able to pick up yards after contact. Scouts have told me that they rate Love higher than Christian McCaffrey for the ability to run between the tackles in the NFL. Love has great vision that, combined with his speed, makes him deadly. One college director told me, “If the other nine guys do their job for a few seconds, this guy is gone.”

In 2017, Love averaged 8.1 yards per carry for 2,118 yards with 19 touchdowns. He had six receptions for 33 yards as well. Sources say Love has more receiving potential for the NFL than the numbers illustrate.

Second-Round Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
TRADE! The Jaguars moved out of the first round in a trade down with the Browns.

The Jaguars could use a young starter at tight end as Marcedes Lewis is aging. Here’s a starting tight end who would give Jacksonville a receiving weapon and upgrade the blocking for Leonard Fournette.

Hurst has 41 receptions for 518 yards and two touchdowns in 2017. He also has rushed for a touchdown. Team sources have raved about Hurst and think that he has a first-round skill set. They say he might slip to the second day of the 2018 NFL Draft, but they love the physical talent of the 6-foot-5, 250-pounder.

Sources say they hear Hurst will skip his senior year to enter the 2018 NFL Draft because he is a bit older at 24 years old. Hurst played professional baseball in the minor leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates organization out of high school. Because of his delayed start in football, sources say that Hurst is still raw as a route-runner and blocker. However, he has a great skill set with upside to improve quickly once he is taught some technique. In 2016, Hurst had 48 receptions for 616 yards with one touchdown. A lack of production from not many opportunities is another factor that could force him down.

Philadelphia Eagles: Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
TRADE! Philadelphia moved down in a trade with the Jets.

The Eagles have traded away a lot of picks, so moving down could make sense for Philadelphia. The Eagles could use a left tackle, but there wasn’t one available worthy of a pick before moving down. They could think of adding a cornerback if they don’t plan to re-sign Ronald Darby, or a defensive end if Vinny Curry becomes a cap casualty. Here Philadelphia drafts a tackle. Brown could possibly stay at left tackle, but likely the team could move Lane Johnson to the left side and put Brown at right tackle.

Brown (6-8, 360) is a massive blocker who has been a physical blocker for the Sooners. He opened a lot of holes for Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine in 2016. Brown has done the same for others as a starter over the past few seasons. Brown uses his strength and physicality to toss a lot of defenders to the ground as he can be a flat-out bully on the field. However, he needs to improve his pass protection for the NFL. Some team sources say they don’t see Brown as a first-rounder; they think he will be a second-round pick and a starting right tackle at the next level. He also could be a big guard, but his height is less than ideal for throwing lanes on the inside.

Kansas City Chiefs: J.C. Jackson, CB, Maryland
Kansas City needs a corner to replace Darrelle Revis and form a better tandem with Marcus Peters. Andy Reid and the Chiefs have been very willing to take players with off-the-field issues as well.

While he comes with serious off-the-field concerns, sources have raved about the talent and skill set of Jackson. The 6-foot-1, 193-pounder has excellent athleticism to go along with speed and good size. In 2017, Jackson totaled 40 tackles with seven passes broken up and three interceptions. He recorded 40 tackles with six breakups and a pick in 2016.

Jackson was kicked out of the Florida Gators program in 2015 following an armed robbery – for which he was ultimately acquitted. There was also another incident in late 2014 during which Jackson was shot at – with a bullet grazing his eye lid – and a companion of his was shot in the face. The off-the-field issues are going to be vetted heavily, but Jackson has the physical talent to be an early-round pick for the NFL.

Third-Round Picks

Houston Texans: DeShon Elliott, S, Texas
The Texans badly need a safety upgrade next to Andre Hal.

Elliott enjoyed a breakout 2017 season as one of the nation’s leaders in interceptions with six. The junior also collected 63 tackles and nine passes broken up. The 6-foot-2, 210-pounder has NFL size with good instincts. He fits as a free safety for the pro game, and sources have told me that they’ve given him a second-day grade. They say that Elliott lacks the elite athletic ability and speed to be a first-round pick, but he makes plays in coverage and is a willing participant against the run. It would have been hard for Elliott to duplicate his production if he had returned for his senior year, so it was in his interest to declare for the 2018 NFL Draft – like he did.

Back to Overreaction 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-16

Other 2018 NFL Mock Drafts:

2018 NFL Mock Draft – Walt’s

Charlie Campbell’s 2018 NFL Mock Draft