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Clemson at Boston College.
Line: Clemson by 17.5.
Friday, 7:30 p.m.
As a disclaimer, don’t go nuts with my college football picks. I’m much better at picking NFL games (which is saying a lot). Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Clemson is off a big victory, and now everyone wants to bet on them. This spread has soared as a result; it’s -17.5 on Bovada now, which seems like a touchdown too high. I’m not saying Clemson is a bad team, but Boston College is a solid squad with a terrific defense. The Eagles will keep the score down, and the Tigers, who are coming off an emotional high, could have a bit of a letdown here.
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College Football Pick: Boston College +17.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Notre Dame at N.C. State.
Line: N.C. State by 2.5.
Saturday, 12:00 p.m.
This is a classic case of public overreaction. What would this spread have been three weeks ago? Notre Dame -7? Maybe even higher? The Irish went through a funk, but they’re a good team and I expect them to finish the year on a strong note. They’re just 2-3, while N.C. State is 3-1, so the host has to be better, right? Well, the Wolfpack has beaten Old Dominion, William & Mary and Wake Forest. Whoop dee doo. N.C. State lost to East Carolina, which is saying a lot, considering that East Carolina is a 20-point underdog to South Florida this week. N.C. State has no business being favored in this matchup.
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College Football Pick: Notre Dame +2.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
BYU at Michigan State.
Line: Michigan State by 6.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
This spread opened -4, but was bet up by the public to -6. This surprised me, and I think there’s a ton of value now on BYU. The Cougars have been a covering machine this year, beating the number every time they’ve been underdogs. Taysom Hill has been the reason why. Hill has put his team in a hole with poor interceptions, but has been ridiculous in the fourth quarter. Hill is the new Backdoor Bandit, and with this line now at +6, the back door will be open wide enough for Hill to squeak through. If BYU could cover against Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, it can get there against the struggling Spartans.
College Football Pick: BYU +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Georgia at South Carolina.
Line: Georgia by 7.
Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
Losing like Georgia did is going to be very difficult to come back from, and the Bulldogs will have to combat that as well as their own medicority in this contest. I don’t get why they’re such big favorites. They barely beat Nicholls State and Missouri, and now they’re being asked to cover seven on the road against a decent South Carolina squad? The Gamecocks battled Texas A&M very closely last week. Sure, the Aggies were missing some key personnel, but South Carolina almost won that game. They’ll have a legitimate chance to pull the upset this Saturday.
College Football Pick: South Carolina +7 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Washington at Oregon.
Line: Washington by 9.5.
Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
This line is another case of public overreaction. A week ago, Washington might have been -3 or -3.5. Yet, the Huskies stomped all over an overrated Stanford team, while Oregon lost on the road at Washington State, and now here we are with the Ducks effectively being double-digit home underdogs. Oregon, as discussed last week, has been highly competitive against tough opponents, and I don’t see why that would change. They’re making a switch a quarterback, which I like, so I think they’ll give an overconfident Washington team all it can handle.
Follow me @walterfootball to see if anything changes.
College Football Pick: Oregon +9.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
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