College Football Picks: Week 13, 2008

College Football Picks (Weeks 1-2, 2008): 6-6 (-$50)
College Football Picks (Week 3, 2008): 3-2 (+$780)
College Football Picks (Week 4, 2008): 3-2 (+$340)
College Football Picks (Week 5, 2008): 2-3 (+$10)
College Football Picks (Week 6, 2008): 3-2 (-$370)
College Football Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-1 (+$470)
College Football Picks (Week 8, 2008): 3-2 (+$110)
College Football Picks (Week 9, 2008): 3-2 (+$140)
College Football Picks (Week 10, 2008): 1-4 (-$760)
College Football Picks (Week 11, 2008): 3-2 (+$250)
College Football Picks (Week 12, 2008): 4-1 (+$950)

College Football Picks (2008 Season): 35-27 (+$1,870)

By the way, the second-annual Walter/Joker Annual Challenge is on, as I’ll be competing with the Joker’s College Picks. We each pick five games and see who does the best each week.

---

Northern Illinois (5-5) at Kent State (3-7)
Line: Northern Illinois by 3.
Tuesday, 8:00 ET

In spirit of NBC’s Green Week, I’ll recycle what I wrote last week to conserve energy. My energy.

This is one of those situations I absolutely love. A live home public underdog, under the weeknight lights is seeing the line move its way despite action on the other side. [Northern Illinois] is getting about [84] percent of the action right now, yet the line has moved from [-4] to [-3].

College Football Week 13 Picks: Four more picks to be posted by Wednesday evening.

Prediction: Kent State 27, Northern Illinois 17
Kent State +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Northern Illinois 42, Kent State 14

---

N.C. State (4-6) at North Carolina (7-3)
Line: Noth Carolina by 11.
Saturday, 12:00 ET

I like to play large underdogs in select rivalries. Looking closely at this series, whenever either team is favored by double digits, the underdog is 4-1 against the spread. The one non-cover missed by just one point.

N.C. State is playing really well right now, knocking off Wake Forest and Duke as underdogs in consecutive weeks. Don’t be surprised if they pull the outright upset here.

Prediction: North Carolina 27, N.C. State 23
N.C. State +11 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
N.C. State 41, North Carolina 10

---

Michigan State (9-2) at Penn State (10-1)
Line: Penn State by 14.
Saturday, 3:30 ET

Let’s get one thing out of the way. Michigan State sucks. Really, the only reason they’re ranked so high is because there are so many crappy teams in college football this year. What have the Spartans done this year? Ohh, they beat craptastic Wisconsin by one point at home. That’s impressive. They knocked off Indiana by just 13 points – very nice, very nice. Oh, look, they managed to lose to Ohio State by only 38 points!

Penn State’s defense is good enough to take Javon Ringer out of the game, which will nullify Michigan State’s entire offensive game plan.

This is a huge game for the Nittany Lions. If they win, they’re going to the crappy Rose Bowl. That game means nothing in real life, but the players seem to care about it for whatever reason. So, they’ll need to win this game to get in. Assuming Ohio State beats Michigan, the Spartans won’t have a chance at that particular Winter Practice Game.

History is also on Penn State’s side. Since joining the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have never lost to the Spartans at home, owning a 5-2 spread record against them. Their last five victories over Michigan State as hosts are by: 23, 19, 56, 24 and 4 (Anthony Morelli sucked).

This is my November Pick of the Month. I liked how Penn State rebounded off its only loss in the second half at Indiana. They’ll be focused for the vastly overrated Spartans.

Prediction: Penn State 42, Michigan State 17
Penn State -14 (7 Units – November College Football Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Penn State 48, Michigan State 19

---

Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) at Troy (6-4)
Line: Troy by 9.
Saturday, 7:00 ET

This line is extremely inflated because Troy jumped out to a huge lead at LSU. They ultimately lost, but the public noticed.

Troy isn’t much better than Louisiana-Lafayette. But the main reason why I like the visitor is because Troy won’t be able to bring the same intensity it played with last week. That game was the team’s Super Bowl. They’ll be extremely flat for an “inferior” opponent.

We saw this last week. After knocking off Big Ten squad Illinois, Western Michigan failed to cover against 2-8 Toledo, winning by just 10 points. The Broncos had no energy for inferior Toledo.

The same applies here. Plus, the Cajuns are playing for a winter practice game bid.

Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 24, Troy 22
Louisiana-Lafayette +9 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Troy 48, Louisiana-Lafayette 3

---

Texas Tech (10-0) at Oklahoma (9-1)
Line: Oklahoma by 7.
Saturday, 8:00 ET

I usually stay away from big games, but this one caught my attention – so much so that I considered it as my November College Football Pick of the Month.

First of all, this line is way too high. Texas Tech just beat Texas and destroyed Oklahoma State at home. Wasn’t anyone paying attention? Why is this line only seven?

I’ll tell you why – the Red Raiders were at home, playing under the lights for those two contests. Now, they have to go on the road where Oklahoma will have that same advantage that Texas Tech had for those contests.

Another disadvantage for Texas Tech is the week off, which completely killed whatever momentum they had. I know Oklahoma also had a week off, but they’re much more talented than the Raiders. If this game took place last week, Texas Tech would have had a much better chance.

Vegas line movement also implies that Oklahoma is the right side. This game is receiving the highest volume of bets of any college matchup of the weekend, which was predictable. The spread opened at -6, and despite the fact that 80 percent of the action is on the visitor, the line moved off key -6 and on to key -7. Why do the books want even more money on Texas Tech?

Again, I was considering Oklahoma as my November Pick of the Month, but I like Penn State a bit more.

Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Texas Tech 31
Oklahoma -7 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Oklahoma 65, Texas Tech 21

---

2009 NFL Mock Draft


Week 12 NFL Picks

2010 NFL Mock Draft


2009 NFL Mock Draft Database