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College Football Picks (2008 Season): 49-38 (+$3,020)
Florida State at Louisville.
Line: Florida State by 2.
Saturday, 12:00 p.m.
As a disclaimer, don’t go nuts with my college football picks. I’m much better at picking NFL games (which is saying a lot). Follow @walterfootball for updates.
I don’t understand why Louisville is a home underdog in this matchup. Florida State is getting a ton of credit for beating Ole Miss, and it was a nice win, but people forget that they trailed 28-6. The Rebels stopped scoring, but I don’t think that’ll happen to Louisville and its high-powered offense, especially with stud Seminoles safety Derwin James being out of the lineup. I liked the Cardinals even before I saw that there is some sharp action on the host, which makes my opinion of this game even stronger.
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College Football Pick: Louisville +2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Ohio at Tennessee.
Line: Tennessee by 27.
Saturday, 12:00 p.m.
Despite playing Appalachian State and a Virginia Tech squad that they beat 45-21, the Vols have been outgained in terms of yards per play through two weeks. The reason they won by so much last week was because they got lucky, getting five turnovers. I don’t trust Tennessee enough offensively for them to beat Ohio by at least four touchdowns. The Bobcats, by the way, are coming off a 16-point victory against Kansas and are getting sharp action.
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College Football Pick: Ohio +27.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State.
Line: Oklahoma State by 6.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
From my experience, teams that lose in a bulls*** type of way like Oklahoma State just did tend to struggle afterward, as they’re too unfocused and distraught to focus for their next game. That’s just a bonus here though, as I would’ve thought Pittsburgh was the right side regardless. The Panthers are much better than I thought they were – even though they failed to cover against Penn State – and I think their offensive line will push around the Cowboys to open up running room for James Conner. This is a toss-up game for me in terms of a straight-up winner, so I’ll gladly take the six points, much like the sharps are doing.
College Football Pick: Pittsburgh +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
South Florida at Syracuse.
Line: South Florida by 14.5.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
I love betting against spread overreactions in the NFL. This is an example of one in college. Louisville was -14.5 at Syracuse last week. Now, South Florida is -14.5 at Syracuse. So, this is telling us that Louisville is just as good as South Florida, which is a pretty dumb way to think. There’s so much value here with the Orange Men, who will be looking to bounce back after being humiliated on national TV. They couldn’t compete with Louisville, but they’ll be able to stay close to South Florida.
College Football Pick: Syracuse +14.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Michigan State at Notre Dame.
Line: Notre Dame by 7.5.
Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
The public is all over the underdog in this game, but I don’t agree with them. I don’t think this spread is high enough. Notre Dame would be 2-0 right now, both straight up and against the spread, if it decided to play DeShone Kizer for the entire Texas game. If the Irish were 2-0 heading into this contest, I have to believe they’d be double-digit favorites, so we’re getting good value here. It’s also worth noting that the Spartans had trouble putting Furman away two weeks ago. Notre Dame is simply a lot better.
Follow me @walterfootball to see if anything changes.
College Football Pick: Notre Dame -7.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
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