NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2022

New York Giants (9-6-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Line: Eagles by 16.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We didn’t have to wait very long to get news on Jalen Hurts. I thought we’d be wondering about his status all week, but a report was released Monday morning, citing that the Eagles expect Hurts to be under center in this game.

This is obviously enormous news for the Eagles. Gardner Minshew did well in Hurts’ place during the shootout in Dallas, but he scored just 10 points versus the Saints this past Sunday. A major reason for this was Lane Johnson’s absence. Johnson won’t be back until the playoffs, so the Eagles will need Hurts’ mobility to compensate for the absence of their All-Pro right tackle.

The Eagles will also attempt to establish Miles Sanders, in all likelihood. It’s never clear with the Eagles, who sometimes completely abandon segments of their offense, but it would be wise to get Sanders going because the Giants struggle to stop the run, ranking 29th in that regard.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones has played very well against some weak defenses lately. The last time he struggled happened to be against these very Eagles. Back in Week 14, Jones was just 18-of-27 for 169 yards and a touchdown.

One thing has changed since that game, and that would be Saquon Barkley’s health. Barkley played in that game, but wasn’t nearly 100 percent. Barkley has been much better since, but so has Philadelphia’s run defense, save for last week’s low-effort performance versus the Saints. The Eagles will be able to clamp down on Barkley, assuming he even plays. More on that later.

Speaking of the Eagles clamping down on the opposition, their fantastic cornerbacks have easy matchups in this contest. Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins have improved lately, but they don’t stand a chance against the tandem of Darius Slay and James Bradberry. The only receiver I like in this spot is Richie James, as the Eagles tend to struggle versus slot receivers.

RECAP: I hinted at this earlier when I discussed Barkley, but the Giants may not play their starters. Brian Daboll said that he plans on using his starters, but this doesn’t mean they’ll play the entire game, or even the whole first half. Daboll may also be lying; there’s been a history of coaches promising to showcase their starters in meaningless season finales, and then going back on their word once the game begins.

The thing is, the Eagles beat the Giants by 26 a few weeks ago when New York used its starters, so even if Daboll is being completely truthful – and extremely idiotic in the process – the Eagles could still cover this high line. Sure, Lane Johnson won’t be available this time, but Johnson is not worth 12 points, which is the difference between the margin of victory from the previous meeting and the spread of this game.

I think it’s more likely that we’ll see Tyrod Taylor and Matt Breida in the backfield for the Giants at some point in this game, so I believe Philadelphia should be able to cover rather easily. I’m picking the Eagles, but I’m going to mark this as TBA units for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still haven’t gotten any indication that the Giants will sit their starters, but they’d be foolish if they didn’t do so. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jalen Hurts is questionable after being limited in practice all week. I would ordinarily love to fade a team with a hobbled quarterback missing its top offensive lineman, but the Giants have announced that their backups will play in this game, so it’s Eagles or nothing. Right now, it’s nothing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have come in on the Eagles, driving this line up to -16.5. I don’t know if I could bet this one, even with Davis Webb starting, because Jalen Hurts may not be 100 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants aren’t just sitting their skill starters. Andrew Thomas and Dexter Lawrence are also sitting. This is Eagles or nothing. I’ll go with nothing because Jalen Hurts may not be 100 percent. The sharps like the Eagles though.

Dallas Cowboys (12-4) at Washington Redskins (7-8-1)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Redskins received some bad news ahead of the Browns game. That was the status of two defensive backs, Kamren Curl and Ben St-Juste. Both were ruled out, which made the matchup versus Cleveland’s passing attack much worse. Thus, it was no surprise that Deshaun Watson hit Amari Cooper for a couple of deep touchdowns.

It’s unclear if the Redskins will have their defensive backs available, but motivation could be low to stop Dallas. Dak Prescott has tons of weapons at his disposal anyway, especially now that T.Y. Hilton has emerged as a viable threat.

Curl’s availability would be huge for the Redskins to stop Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard as well. Curl is exceptional in the running game, so his absence allowed Nick Chubb to trample an ordinarily stout Redskins ground defense. If Curl is out, the Cowboys will be able to run all over Washington.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I still can’t believe the Redskins started Carson Wentz last week. It really only took them two months to forget how terrible he was. I know Taylor Heinicke struggled against the 49ers, but that was to be expected. Heinicke gave Washington a much better chance of beating the Browns than Wentz did.

It’s unclear if Wentz will start again, but if he does, we can assume that he’ll once again be responsible for numerous turnovers. I envision Wentz staring down his receivers like a leering drunk at a bar, or recklessly heaving passes into double and triple coverage. All of this will happen, by the way, as Wentz is being harassed by Dallas’ excellent pass rush.

The Redskins will need to ease the burden of Wentz with their running game, but it’s tough to envision that working for two reasons. One, the Redskins could easily be way behind by the middle of the second quarter. Two, Dallas has been exceptional versus the run lately, ranking second in adjusted EPA in that department.

RECAP: You have to wonder where the motivation will be for the Redskins. They were just eliminated from the playoffs, so what’s the incentive to play hard, especially if Wentz starts again? Wentz sucks all the life out of the locker room, so it’s not a surprise that he was an absolute failure in Washington. I could maybe see the players getting up for Heinicke, or even Slingin’ Sammy Howell, but that’s still a tough sell.

So, the Cowboys have a huge motivational edge, right? You’d think so, but some might disagree. It’s in the realm of possibility that the Eagles will be up on the Giants by something like 24-7 at halftime, and I cite that first-half result specifically because that was the score at intermission the last time these teams played. If that’s the case, there’s definitely a chance the Cowboys would pull their starters. However, Dallas has a history of playing its starters in meaningless season finales, so I wouldn’t be so sure the Cowboys will go to their backups at all.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line rose to +7 because the Redskins will be starting Slingin’ Sammy Howell over Carson Wentz. In what world is Wentz worth three-plus points over Howell, or anyone, for a matter of fact? If anything, Howell should be worth three more points than Wentz. I think we now have value with the Redskins, though I’m hesitant to switch to them because they were just eliminated and may not be motivated to play this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I considered making a small bet on the Redskins, but look at the injury report. No one practiced all week! Jonathan Allen, Ben St-Juste, and all the running backs are out. I don’t understand what this team is doing. They could just quit after being eliminated.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps love the Redskins. Perhaps they think the Cowboys will pull their starters early, but they didn’t sit their starters in a meaningless game last year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you want to tail the sharps with the Redskins, you can get +7.5 -115 at BetUS. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are -7 -115 at Caesars. I’m not betting this game.

Los Angeles Rams (5-11) at Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: It was a bit of a surprise that Tyler Lockett played last week, though he wasn’t a major factor in the game. He actually missed a chunk of the action, and yet the Seahawks torched the Jets with Geno Smith constantly targeting his tight ends, all while Kenneth Walker picked up lots of yardage on the ground.

It was surprising to see Walker be so successful against the Jets, given that New York can be stout against rushing attacks. The Rams? Not so much. Los Angeles is currently ranked 26th in adjusted run defense EPA, so Walker could have an even better performance.

Walker will set up some great passing opportunities for Smith, who won’t have to face much of a pass rush. The Rams can’t get to the quarterback at all, especially with Aaron Donald out of the lineup. Save for the Falcons and Bears, no team gets to the quarterback less frequently than the Rams, so Smith will have all day to find his talented receivers for considerable gains.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams of old – as in prior to this season – would have been able to clamp down on the Seahawks. Instead, the Rams will need to outscore Seattle in a potential shootout to win this game.

That may not seem possible, given that the Rams have Baker Mayfield as their quarterback and Van Jefferson as their top receiver, but don’t dismiss them so quickly. The Seahawks have a horrific defense that can’t stop anyone, unless the opposing quarterback is still dealing with a rib injury. The Seahawks are especially brutal versus the run, which is something the Jets weren’t able to exploit. The Rams certainly will be able to do this with Cam Akers, who has been outstanding the past two weeks.

As with the Seahawks, the Rams will be able to parlay successful runs with easier passing opportunities. The Seahawks struggle to generate pressure on the quarterback anyway, so Mayfield will have plenty of chances to locate his receivers.

RECAP: I’ve been fading the Seahawks for quite some time. This has been a very successful strategy for me prior to last week. Last Sunday’s result was disastrous, as the Jets went down in flames. However, I believe the Jets couldn’t score because Mike White was not nearly 100 percent, despite being a full participant in practice throughout the week.

Mayfield is healthy and fully capable of pulling the upset. That’s what my numbers say, anyway. I made this spread Seahawks -3, which is exactly what the advance line was, so I believe this is almost a coin-flip game.

I think anyone new reading this will be surprised by this take, but I think the Seahawks suck. Their defense is absolutely atrocious, and their record was built on tons of cupcake opponents. They’ve played against only three teams that currently have winning records. One was the 49ers, who blew them out twice. Another was the Giants, who are extremely overrated. The third was the Chargers, who were missing countless starters for that game. Otherwise, the Seahawks have struggled for the most part since beating the Chargers. They were demolished by the Buccaneers and Seahawks. They lost to the Raiders at home. They nearly lost to these Rams. Does this sound like a team that should be favored by nearly a touchdown?

I love the value we’re getting with the Rams, and I’m a big fan of fading a highly overrated team like Seattle, so this will be one of my top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tyler Lockett missed Wednesday’s practice with a leg injury he suffered during Sunday’s game. I imagine he’ll still play, but he could be limited.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyler Lockett will play after being limited on Friday, but he may not be 100 percent. I still love the Rams.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps pounded the Rams on Sunday morning, driving this line down to +5.5. I’m going to lock in the best +6 I could find, which is for -120 vig at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Rams heavily, driving this down to +4.5. You can still get +5 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (4-12) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Line: 49ers by 14. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy keeps on winning. He’s now 4-0 as a starter, and he continues to perform on a high level. I can’t remember the last time, since Tom Brady at least, that a late-round prospect has come in with no experience and has emerged like this.

Purdy should continue to thrive versus the Cardinals. Arizona has some injury issues regarding the secondary. Desmond Ridder just had a strong performance against the Cardinals, so I don’t see why Purdy will slow down, especially when targeting George Kittle. It’s been years since Arizona has defended tight ends well.

The 49ers also figure to rip through Arizona’s defense with Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinals looked completely helpless to stop Tyler Allgeier last week, so how will they contain McCaffrey?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I was concerned with Colt McCoy’s status so much that I wrote that I would have canceled my Arizona bet last week if I could have done so in the wake of McCoy having concussion symptoms after being cleared. However, David Blough was perfectly fine as a replacement. He had the Cardinals in position to win last week despite missing DeAndre Hopkins.

That said, I don’t think I need to tell you that there’s a stark difference between the Atlanta and San Francisco defenses. The Falcons have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, while the 49ers have Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead. Arizona has major problems pass protecting with all of the injuries it has suffered on the offensive line, so keeping San Francisco out of the backfield will be impossible.

McCoy or Blough won’t be able to lean on James Conner either. No team in the NFL defends running backs better than the 49ers, so Conner will struggle to do anything of note.

RECAP: I don’t see how the Cardinals can compete with the 49ers. There’s just way too much of a lopsided mismatch with San Francisco’s front versus Arizona’s injury-ravaged offensive line. But I don’t need to tell you this. All you need to do is think back to how the matchup between these teams went when they battled in Mexico City. If you’ve forgotten, the 49ers won that game, 38-10, and they averaged 2.4 more yards per play than Arizona.

The 49ers should be able to win this game easily. This is a high line, and the 49ers have a history of not covering these huge spreads, but I still think they’re the right side. I plan on betting two or three units on them, depending on what Arizona’s quarterback situation looks like.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Colt McCoy is out. DeAndre Hopkins won’t play. There are 10 Cardinals who missed Wednesday’s practice. This looks like an easy 49ers cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only are Colt McCoy and DeAndre Hopkins out, but James Conner is sidelined as well. Meanwhile, the 49ers will have Deebo Samuel back from his long hiatus. I imagine the 49ers will spend some time in this game trying to get him back in a groove.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have a lean toward the Cardinals, so perhaps this line will drop a bit prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings beat the Bears, so the 49ers need to win this game for the No. 2 seed. I’m going to bet three units on them at the -14 -110 at Caesars. The sharps are on the Cardinals, however.

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Denver Broncos (4-12)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: If you didn’t read what I wrote in the opener, I considered the Rams-Chargers selection one of the worst picks I’ve made in quite a while. That’s because I didn’t factor in Joey Bosa’s return at all. I planned on doing so a while ago, much like I did for the Steelers and T.J. Watt’s return. I don’t know why I ignored Bosa coming back to the field. I think I liked the Rams so much initially that I stubbornly forgot to change my opinion.

I won’t make the same mistake again. With Bosa joining Khalil Mack on the field, the Chargers will continue to have a devastating pass rush. They swarmed Baker Mayfield, and they will do the same with Russell Wilson. We know this because Wilson isn’t well protected in the first place. He was hounded fiercely in last week’s fourth-quarter collapse, and he’ll face the same pressure in this game.

The one hope the Broncos have is to establish the run with Latavius Murray. The Chargers are still pretty pedestrian when it comes to stopping ground attacks. However, the Broncos may not have an opportunity to do this if the Chargers emerge with a big lead early in the afternoon.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Broncos have a great defense, so they should be able to prevent the Chargers from establishing that big lead, right? Well, I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

The Broncos, despite the talent they possess on this side of the ball, have some liabilities with their defense. One such issue is their inability to defend slot receivers. That obviously bodes poorly for this matchup because Keenan Allen resides in that area. Justin Herbert should also be able to target Gerald Everett successfully, as Denver isn’t very good versus tight ends.

One last problem for Denver is its struggles versus the run. Opposing backs have gashed the Broncos, so Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley figure to have success in this matchup.

RECAP: Under normal circumstances, I’d be all over the Chargers. As I noted in my NFL Power Rankings, I’ve moved the Chargers from overrated to underrated in just one week. I’ve never done that before, as far as I know. But that’s how great of a player Bosa is. Like Watt, he can completely change the dynamics of a defense. With Bosa, the Chargers will have an elite pass rush, and it’ll be extremely difficult to throw on them.

Unfortunately, we may not have a great betting opportunity in this situation because the Chargers may rest their starters. They’re locked into the No. 5 or 6 seed at the moment, and by the time this game kicks off, the Chargers may be locked into the No. 6 spot if Baltimore beats Cincinnati. With nothing to play for, the Chargers won’t have a reason to play Bosa, Herbert, Allen, Ekeler, etc.

With that in mind, I’m going to just pencil in the Chargers for no units at the moment. If I hear any news about the Chargers starters, I’ll have an update, of course. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tons of sharp money moved this line to Denver -2.5. The thinking is that the Chargers won’t play their starters because if the Ravens lose the Bengals, the Chargers will be locked into the No. 5 seed. Brandon Staley said as much.

“Once we find out about that game, then we’ll make the appropriate decisions moving forward,” Staley said.

Of course, there’s a chance Baltimore could upset Cincinnati, especially if both teams sit their starters.

SATURDAY NOTES: My opinion has changed about the Baltimore-Cincinnati game, which means I now like the Broncos to cover. The Chargers may sit their starters because they could be locked into the No. 5 seed. The sharps are all over the Broncos.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have bet the Broncos and pushed this line to -4.5 in most sportsbooks, though you can get -4 at BetMGM. I’m going to lock this in now before the line goes to -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, this line as risen to -6. In fact, it’s even -6.5 in some sportsbooks. I would like the Broncos a bit less at that number. The sharps are all over Denver.

Detroit Lions (8-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 49.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Gay, where tonight, the Fudge Packers take on the Detroit Tigers! Guys, I’m sick and tired of these meaningless games, and I’m also sick and tired of this news story about this George Santos guy lying about his resume when he got elected as Congressman President. Everyone lies on their resume, including me. I told the president of this network that I have lots of broadcasting experience, when really, the only experience I had was fake announcing games when my Philadelphia Eagles were on TV, and my audience were my best friends, my stuffed animals named Captain Pirate Pete, Lydia the Giraffe, and Sparky the Green Dinosaur.

Emmitt: Koy Reilly, I does not blame you for lying on the resume because I do not even has a resume. When I got hire by USPN a long time ago, the guy who hire me ask for my resume. I tolded him that my typewriteman broke so I would need to wait three month to get a new one, but this was a lie because it would only take me two month to find direction to go to the local typewriteman store and buy another one.

Reilly: Emmitt, I hate these bosses who are so demanding. Another lie I put on my resume was that I graduated from college. I couldn’t have done so because I was still being homeschooled by Mother all the time. Mother was a tough teacher. If I didn’t listen, or if I didn’t rub her feet well enough, she’d bend me over and beat my butt with a ruler. The whole time, I was eagerly awaiting when I’d be old enough for her not to do this to me anymore, but I’m still a blossoming flower at the age of 65!

Tollefson: Kevin, I have to apologize because your mom got that idea from me. I told her that I beat my female slaves who misbehave with rulers. Except, I don’t bend them over and do it on their butt. Instead I whack them in the face with my ruler. That’ll show them! They must learn the repercussions of missing a spot while washing the floor or dusting my bookshelves!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother said you’re not supposed to do kinky stuff with women like that, or you’ll be going to Hell. But now that I’ve been disowned by Mother, maybe I’ll start beating women with my own ruler. What do you think Senator President John Fetterman? Do you think that this is a good idea?

John Fetterman: The definition of insanity is insane. Good ideas are good, and bad ideas are good. When you’re insane, you have bad ideas, which are good because bad ideas are good and insane. Repeating over and over again, the animals in my closet. That’s the insane part, the good ideas. Bad ideas are good, and good ideas are good. Merry Christmas, you filthy animals.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Schefter, have you ever lied on your resume? Or are you going to talk about Covid-19 vaccines again?

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Chris Ballard to make sure I could break the news. The breaking news is that even I, Adam Schefter, have lied on my resume. I told my employees that I have taken 719 Covid-19 vaccine injections into my anus, but after performing an audit of my Covid-19 vaccine injections, I realized that I was mistaken. I have, in fact, injected my anus 716 times with the Covid-19 vaccine. Kevin, my heart has been enlarged by 511 percent, and I will likely be dead by this time next year, but I am happy I have taken so many injections of the vaccine because I otherwise had a 0.03-percent chance of dying from Covid if I were an 80-year-old obese man. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Schefter, you suck as always, but I appreciate you sharing your resume mistakes to make me feel better. Roger Goodell, have you allowed anyone to keep their job when you’ve found that they’ve lied on their resumes?

Goodell: Fellow hu-man, I see you are discussing resumes. I, as a fellow hu-man, also enjoy discussing resumes. All hu-mans have favorite part of their resumes, and my favorite part is – randomizing – education. Hu-mans value education, and I am a hu-man, so I, too, value education.

Reilly: That’s not what I asked at all, but whatever. I have another resume lie to admit. I wrote on my resume that I fought in a war, but what I should have wrote was that I played war in my backyard with New Daddy, though New Daddy was asleep the whole time. Mr. President, how do you feel about lying on your resume?

Joe Biden: Not so fast, Fat, you water balloon-eating pogo ninja, I seen a lot of resumes in my career. I get a lot of parents sending in their resumes to George to have their daughters become the next Mrs. Biden. I’m George, and George is not my sister. I once had a resume from a lovely lady who seemed very grown, and it said she was seven years old. Seemed like the perfect next Mrs. Biden who could go in the shower with George. But then I find out she’s really 19. I says, the Mrs. Biden I’m looking for is the next wife of George, and not his mother. She’s too old! Next! Get George the next resume! Who’s George!?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said he looks at resumes, and that’s wrong, very wrong, so wrong in fact, it’s the wrongest thing anyone has ever heard of, and it’s a total disgrace, believe me, because no one looks more at resumes than I do, in fact, they call me the greatest resume reader in the world, though I don’t know if I’d go that far, but that’s what people tell me, and I know the best people, believe me, no one knows the best people like I do, they really are the best people, and frankly, Sleepy Joe knows the worst people, because Sleepy Joe is a total disgrace and a total disaster, no one has seen anything like it, and I’ve seen it all, including all the resumes, lots of resumes, believe me, I’ve hired nothing but the best people, I just wish that some of the people around me wouldn’t backstab me, but they’re nothing but the best people, because I hired them, and believe me, I’ve hired the best, and Sleepy Joe has hired the worst.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE MISTAKEN. SLEEPY JOE MAY HIRE SOME BAD PEOPLE, BUT I ONCE HIRED A FOUR-LEGGED TOUPEE WITH EYELIDS TO MOW MY LAWN. SAFE TO SAY THAT DID NOT GO WELL.

Reilly: Guys, we’re getting off tangent here. New Daddy, have you ever lied on your resume?

Jay Cutler: WTF is a resume.

Reilly: New Daddy, you need a resume to get a job unless you’re special like you!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing resumes, Kevin. Let’s go through other lies you could have told, Kevin. Your resume says you’re a man, Kevin, but you act like a little girl, Kevin. You say you once played for the Eagles in the NFL, Kevin, but you were really a loser waterboy, Kevin. For education, you said you were the best student in your mother’s home-schooling class, Kevin, but you were actually the worst, Kevin. For qualifications, Kevin, if you put anything, Kevin, you were lying, Kevin, because you have no qualifications, Kevin. For experience, Kevin, you have none, especially with women, Kevin. And any references you put, Kevin, won’t vouch for you, Kevin.

Reilly: HEY, F**K YOU, A**HOLE, I KNOW ALL OF THIS IS TRUE, AND I WAS GETTING TO IT, BUT YOU DIDN’T HAVE TO BLURT IT ALL OUT!!! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’ve been writing for a while that the Packers are underrated because Aaron Rodgers’ thumb is now healthy. Green Bay suffered some strange losses during the middle of the year because of Rodgers’ broken thumb. His thumb has been fine in recent weeks, which would explain Green Bay’s recent winning streak.

With Rodgers now healthy, the Packers should be able to have their way with Detroit’s secondary. The Lions have been weaker to the pass than the run, thanks to their liabilities in the secondary and linebacking corps. Aaron Jones should be a strong factor as a receiver because of the latter.

Jones and A.J. Dillon shouldn’t have much success running the ball, however. The Lions have been stout in that regard in every game besides the loss to the Panthers. Detroit had issues with the read-option in that contest, but that won’t be a factor in this matchup.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have been much more potent offensively at home this year, but they’ve had some nice performances on the road. When talking about away games for Detroit, it’s important to look at the weather because Jared Goff tends to struggle in cold or rainy conditions. It’s still early, but it’s projected to be 31 degrees and clear in Lambeau for this game, which isn’t a bad environment for Goff.

Another issue for the Lions is that the Packers defend slot receivers extremely well. Part of the reason why the Lions scored only 15 points on the Packers in the Week 9 meeting is that Green Bay locked up Amon-Ra St. Brown rather well, limiting the star wideout to just four catches for 55 yards.

The Lions, however, didn’t have a healthy D’Andre Swift for that contest. Swift looked great last week, which is problematic for the Packers and their poor run defense.

RECAP: This game is very difficult to handicap at the moment because we won’t know of the Lions’ motivation until kickoff. That’s because they’ll be eliminated if the Seahawks beat the Rams in a contest that begins at 4:25 p.m. If Seattle wins, Detroit will have nothing to play for. If Seattle loses, Detroit obviously has every reason to try its hardest.

If you haven’t read my Seahawks-Rams pick, I believe Seattle has a good chance of losing. Still, that doesn’t even mean the Lions will cover this spread. I think this spread is a bit high, so I’m inclined to take Detroit in the scenario I envision, but I’ll have to give you an update on Sunday evening once the Seahawks-Rams result is known.

Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m beginning to think the Lions are going to cover this spread no matter what. I get the feeling that Dan Campbell is going to have his players motivated, regardless of the outcome of the Seattle game.

SATURDAY NOTES: If the Seahawks win, this spread will rise to -6 or -6.5 in all likelihood. I’ll obviously like the Lions much more at that number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ll have a definitive pick around 7:30-7:45 p.m., so check back then!

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m so tilted by the Broncos non-cover. Anyway, the Lions were eliminated, thanks to Baker Mayfield’s horrible play, so they may have low motivation. I still like the Lions a bit because there’s a good chance the Packers will choke. We also have +6 available, so getting a key number is nice. The best line is +6 -110 at BetUS. The sharps haven’t taken a side.