Week 7 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 20, 5:10 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 7 – Early Games
Chargers at Bills, 49ers at Giants, Cowboys at Rams, Titans at Chiefs, Steelers at Bengals, Vikings at Bears, Saints at Panthers, Ravens at Dolphins

NFL Picks Week 7 – Late Games
Lions at Texans, Colts at Packers, Jets at Raiders, Browns at Redskins, Seahawks at Buccaneers, Broncos at Patriots

BYE: Cardinals, Falcons, Jaguars, Eagles


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New York Jets – So, the Jets put up 56 points and Brett Favre threw six touchdowns. Whoop dee doo. New York couldn’t stop Arizona’s offense and was helped by seven careless Cardinal turnovers and a blocked field goal. Oh, and Arizona’s best defender (Adrian Wilson) was out. The Jets still lost to Matt Cassel, got slaughtered in San Diego and barely beat the Dolphins. Defeating Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t count.

2. New England Patriots – Why are people surprised that the Chargers debacled the Patriots? New England has one of the worst defenses in the league, and it looks like Randy Moss has quit on the team. Seven victories sounds about right. So far, they’ve beaten the Chiefs, Jets and 49ers, and they were blown out by two squads that don’t have winning records.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Do you plan on getting a blocked punt for a touchdown and lucky interceptions that bounce off the opposing receivers’ hands every week? If so, good luck with your delusions. The Buccaneers are an above-average team that probably should be 2-4 right now; 3-3 at the very best.

I liken the Bucs to some guy in your fantasy league who has only two or three great players, but somehow has a really good record because he plays the lowest-scoring team every week, or he gets absurd performances from guys like Thomas Jones, Felix Jones or Ike Hilliard. Jeff Garcia has zero arm strength, so Tampa Bay’s ceiling is very low. A trip to the second round of the Doggone Playoff would be like winning the Super Bowl.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Including the preseason, David Garrard hasn’t totally sucked only twice this year. Once was against the Texans. The other time was last week against Denver. What do those teams have in common? They both have horrible defenses. Meanwhile, Jacksonville surrendered 100 yards to Michael Pittman last week. Michael freaking Pittman! What happened to this defense?



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Houston Texans – The Texans aren’t terrible. Sage Rosenchoker was solely responsible for the team’s loss to the Colts. And despite a 31-12 final score, Houston was pretty competitive against now 5-0 Tennessee. They botched a bunch of red-zone possessions because of dumb coaching errors and a few Andre Johnson drops. A pick-six iced the game.

2. Cincinnati Bengals – Once they get Carson Palmer back, that is. The Bengals are not an 0-6 team. I don’t know what happened to them in the first week of the season, but they were competitive with the Titans the following Sunday. In Weeks 3 and 5, they nearly beat the Giants and Cowboys as huge underdogs. They didn’t really have much of a chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Still, Cincinnati’s defense is a bit underrated. They’re ranked sixth against the pass and 19th versus the run. Not exactly awful.

3. Denver Broncos – The two contests the Broncos lost were games they really didn’t need to win, as they were way ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West. Think about it; they flopped against the Chiefs after two very close battles against the Chargers and Saints. Last week, the Jaguars were just way more desperate. Also remember that Jay Cutler was missing Brandon Stokley (left early), Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal against Jacksonville. He had no one to go to but Brandon Marshall.

4. Buffalo Bills – The fact that Buffalo is a home underdog to San Diego proves that it’s underrated. The Bills lost to the Cardinals for three reasons: 1) They were coming off a road win and had to travel out to the Pacific Coast. That’s much more taxing than it sounds. 2) Zohan stepped in for an injured Trent Edwards. 3) The Cardinals are a good team and belonged on this list last week!















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)