NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 8, 4:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -5.5.
Sunday, Sept. 7, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Once again, you can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2014 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link and follow the rules. Entry is FREE, so make sure you sign up for a chance to win $350.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: There was no spread on this game for a while because of Cam Newton’s uncertainty. Newton suffered a rib injury, which is his latest malady; Newton was already dealing with a troublesome foot. Newton is going to play in this contest, of course, but there’s a good chance he won’t be 100 percent. He already wasn’t completely healthy during the preseason, so he’ll be even worse off by default in this matchup.

Newton didn’t enjoy a good exhibition. He struggled in his two starts, showing hesitancy to run. He was also pressured quite frequently because his offensive line is garbage. Tampa Bay will definitely win in the trenches on this side of the ball, thanks to Gerald McCoy and the newly acquired Michael Johnson.

The Buccaneers’ pass rush will make life difficult for Newton, who will have to work with a brand-new receiving corps. He showed some chemistry with Kelvin Benjamin, but the Florida State product is raw. Benjamin dropped a pass in the preseason finale, and he’ll probably be prone to several other mistakes as he adjusts to professional football.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Much like the Buccaneers’ defensive line, Carolina’s front will control the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball. The Panthers have one of the top front sevens in football, and Tampa Bay’s blocking isn’t exactly a strength. The Buccaneers did trade for Logan Mankins last week, and he’ll help, but it won’t be enough to contain the Carolina pass-rushers.

Josh McCown will have to rely on quick passes because he won’t have much time in the pocket. It’s a shame for him because his monstrous receivers have a huge edge with Carolina’s secondary also in shambles.

Giving McCown time to throw will be the key for Tampa because it probably won’t have much success establishing a ground attack. Doug Martin has played well this preseason, but he’ll have trouble finding running lanes against the opposition. Tampa’s starting running backs were limited to 3.7 yards per carry versus the Panthers last year, so that just won’t be good enough.

RECAP: I don’t feel strongly about this game. This should be a low-scoring affair, and I feel like the Panthers are a bit overrated, so I’ll pick the Buccaneers to cover despite Jeff Tedford’s medical procedure. I’d feel better about it if I were getting points with Tampa, but the public has apparently caught on to Carolina, unfortunately.

Note: E-mailer Alex T. informed me that I forgot the Panthers in the playoff road underdog trend I discussed earlier. It didn’t come up in my database because I still had Carolina listed at pick ’em. However, I just don’t feel comfortable picking the Buccaneers because of the Tedford situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m adding a unit to the Buccaneers. Several reasons: First, the sharps love the Buccaneers. Second, Cam Newton will play, according to Jason La Canfora. Average bettors may see this as a good thing for the Panthers, but it’s unlikely that Newton is 100 percent. Thus, he’ll hamper a team that knows it won’t have to try as hard with him on the field. And third, the aforementioned trend is more prevalent now that Carolina is a definite underdog.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -4 because Cam Newton is out. So much for La Canfora’s report. I like betting good teams missing their quarterbacks because the other players tend to step up, but Carolina doesn’t apply. Outside of the front seven, the talent just isn’t there. The drunken Derek Anderson won’t lead the team to victory, but he will have some adventures with his flask in the NFL Power Rankings come Tuesday.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Lots of late money on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 71% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Buccaneers are 11-26 ATS at home in the previous 37 instances.

Opening Line: Panthers -1.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 19, Panthers 13
Buccaneers -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 38 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line:
Sunday, Sept. 7, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Emmitt on the Brink will be back in just a couple of days! Stay tuned because the first episode will have Emmitt Smith saved by new friends in a zombie infestation!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: To say that the 49ers have looked dreadful this preseason would be an understatement. They haven’t been able to block at all, while Colin Kaepernick has struggled to complete even the simplest of passes. He was 12-of-22 for 115 yards in the preseason, meaning his completion percentage (54.5) and YPA (5.2) were nearly on Blaine Gabbert’s level. At least he kept his eyes open.

Luckily for the 49ers, they get the right type of matchup to kick start their putrid scoring attack. Dallas’ defense this year might go down as the worst stop units of all time. The Cowboys surrendered the third-most yardage in NFL history last year, and they figure to be even worse in 2014 because they lost their top pass-rusher (DeMarcus Ware), best interior lineman (Jason Hatcher) and star linebacker (Sean Lee). Granted, Lee missed action last year, but he was in the lineup for 11 games. He won’t be around at all this year. Orlando Scandrick, the team’s nickel, is suspended, and who knows if starting corner Morris Claiborne will play?

Besides, I trust the 49ers to get it together. Jim Harbaugh is one of the top coaches in the NFL, and he’s joined by a pair of stellar coordinators. Perhaps the 49ers haven’t schemed at all in the preseason and have just been completely vanilla. Even if that’s not the case, jump starting their offensive attack versus one of the worst defenses in NFL history shouldn’t be much of a challenge.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys figure to be in tons of shootouts this year as long as Tony Romo is healthy. There’s no telling how long that’ll be because Romo came off his second back procedure this offseason. Romo hadn’t shown any signs of that during the preseason, and he’s lucky that he gets to battle the 49ers at their worst.

San Francisco, as you may know, will be missing some key defensive personnel in this contest. Aldon Smith is suspended, while Navorro Bowman is out with a knee. Ray McDonald could also be out because of his domestic abuse arrest. Smith being absent improves Romo’s chances of not being pressured as often, which probably wasn’t going to happen much because he’s surrounded by a decent offensive line that saw the addition of first-rounder Zack Martin this offseason. Bowman being sidelined will benefit both Romo and DeMarco Murray, who figures to have a solid outing.

It’s also difficult to trust the 49ers’ secondary. The team lost Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown this offseason, though they did add Jimmie Ward with their first-round pick. Romo should be able to pick apart San Francisco’s defensive backfield with Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams as long as he doesn’t have much pressure in his face.

RECAP: If I posted these Week 1 picks a couple of months ago, I would’ve gone huge on the 49ers. Dallas is one of the worst teams in the NFL, as it maintains one of the worst defenses this league has ever seen. However, there are so many things wrong with San Francisco, from the arrests, to the holdouts, to the injuries, to the offensive ineptitude. I could easily see the 49ers get their act together and destroy the Cowboys, but I need to see them do it first before I wager any money on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are pounding the Cowboys, while the public is on the 49ers. This will be one of the rare occasions in which I’m going with the squares. I just feel like the sharps may not be fully aware of how bad Dallas is. I also need to see Jim Harbaugh fail.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: This spread continues to drop, as the sharps are unloading on the Cowboys. Perhaps they agree with Ian Rapoport’s story Sunday morning that said Jim Harbaugh has lost his locker room. We’ll see.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Slight lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 67% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Cowboys are 20-10 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 34, Cowboys 27
49ers -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 28, Cowboys 17

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -9.
Sunday, Sept. 7, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the Little League World Series and Morning Radio Shows.

DENVER OFFENSE: Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno are gone, and Peyton Manning is a year older, but the Broncos’ scoring attack didn’t look like it skipped a beat in the preseason. Manning essentially scored at will in the first two games, and he used the dress rehearsal to test out two of his newer weapons who were returning from injury. The Broncos were stuck at three points for most of the opening half before Manning engineered a pair of touchdown drives prior to intermission.

Manning won’t face much resistance from Indianapolis’ pedestrian defense. Remember what Alex Smith did to this unit in the opening round of the playoffs? Granted, Vontae Davis was playing hurt, but having him at full strength won’t balance out the challenge of containing Manning and a plethora of weapons. I can’t see Indianapolis’ pass defense doing anything to stop Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Wes Welker is out for PEDs, but Denver should be fine with Andre Caldwell stepping in. Caldwell obviously isn’t as good, but Welker is a declining player who didn’t do much at the end of this past season.

Manning should have a clean pocket with Robert Mathis suspended for this contest. He’ll also have the luxury of Montee Ball breaking off big gains on the ground. Ball, who looked great in his one and only preseason game, will navigate through a rush defense ranked 24th last year in terms of YPC (4.35).

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck will be able to score some points and perhaps keep pace with the Broncos for a bit. However, Denver made sure to upgrade its defense in the offseason, so Luck will have trouble outscoring the opposition in this contest. The big name the Broncos acquired was DeMarcus Ware, who will bolster the pass rush. Luck is poorly protected, so Ware and Von Miller will make life difficult for the third-year signal caller.

Denver also signed over Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward from New England and Cleveland, respectively. The front office also spent its first-round pick on Ohio State corner Bradley Roby. These three players will greatly improve a secondary that was just in the middle of the pack last year. Luck also has some new weapons to play with – Hakeem Nicks was added, while Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen are returning from injury – but the Broncos have the edge in this matchup.

Something the Broncos did do well on this side of the ball last season was stop the run, ranking fourth against it in terms of YPC. There’s no reason to think they’ll be worse in that department, so they should be able to handle Trent Richardson with ease. Richardson has bragged about finally learning the playbook this offseason – figuring out that there was a “G” in “knight” was crucial – but there has been no evidence that this will translate to success; Richardson looked like the same old mediocre plodder during the preseason.

RECAP: There are three reasons why I really like the Broncos:

1. The system I discussed earlier applies here. The Colts are coming off a playoff season, and they happen to be a road underdog. Teams in that situation are 2-22 against the spread.

2. Manning on national TV is usually a solid wager. He’s 13-8 against the spread on Sunday Night Football.

3. This is a revenge situation, as I’m sure the Broncos remember too well that the Colts beat them last year, handing them their first loss.

Now, if you look below, you may see that Super Bowl losers have an awful track record in Week 1 of the following season, but it seems like the Broncos are on a mission. As with the Patriots in 2012, who covered following a Super Bowl defeat, Denver is quarterbacked by an elite signal-caller, so I think the team won’t be affected by a hangover.

I was on board for a three-unit pick when this spread was -6.5 and -7. I like it a bit less at -7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The books screwed up when posting this spread, as both the public and sharps jumped on the Broncos. I wish this spread was -7 or lower, but I still like Denver a good amount.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t moved, so nothing has changed. I may have a thought on this when the late afternoon games are over, so check back or follow @walterfootball.

SUNDAY NIGHT: The Broncos are up to -9. That’s not a surprise, as the public is trying to recover its losses by betting the favorite. The sharps are on Denver as well, so keep that in mind. I wouldn’t bet more than a unit on the nine-point spread because there’s not much value with the Broncos at this point.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Lots of money on the Broncos is pushing this spread upward.

Percentage of money on Denver: 66% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 5-15 ATS in their first game the following season.

Peyton Manning is 13-8 ATS on Sunday Night Football since 2004.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 55.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 41, Colts 27
Broncos -7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 31, Colts 24

New York Giants (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Lions by 5.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -9.
Monday, Sept. 8, 7:10 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Lions.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The New York “offense.” The Giants haven’t been able to score at all this preseason. Eli Manning has been completely dreadful; while playing first-string defenses this preseason, he’s 17-of-35 for 170 yards and just one touchdown. He’s also fumbled three times. That completion percentage is below 50, while his YPA is a Ricky Stanzi-esque 4.85. I’ve written that Manning has been playing like a dying animal this preseason, but there are some dying animals that might be offended by that.

Of course, it’s not all Manning’s fault. His offensive line has been dreadful, as it surrendered five sacks in what probably amounts to a full 60 minutes of action. Making things worse, guard Geoff Schwartz was lost against the Jets, so the unit will be even worse going forward. As you can imagine, the Lions have a tremendous advantage in the trenches. How in the world will the Giants block Ndamukong Suh and the rest of Detroit’s fearsome pass-rushers?

The Lions have some liabilities in their defense, particularly in their secondary. Jason Whitlock may have mentioned that Detroit has an excellent defensive backfield one day this summer when he was ruining PTI, but that is definitely not the case. However, Manning may not have enough time in the pocket to exploit that liability. Instead, he’ll have to rely on Rashad Jennings setting up short-yardage opportunities for him. The Lions had a run defense ranked in the middle of the pack in 2013, so perhaps Jennings will have a decent outing.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Giants were pretty mediocre defensively last year, but they lost some key personnel in Linval Joseph and Justin Tuck. The Lions, conversely, upgraded their offense this offseason by obtaining Golden Tate and drafting Eric Ebron to complement Calvin Johnson.

Of course, the major concern for the Lions’ success is the mental part of Matthew Stafford’s game. Stafford has tons of talent, but his mechanics and ability to read defenses are lacking. Detroit made an uninspiring hire with Jim Caldwell this offseason, and as a consequence, Stafford looks like the same, mistake-prone quarterback. Caldwell even kept Stafford in the game with the backups during the third week of the preseason, and Stafford nearly got hurt as a result.

Speaking of players who make blunders, Reggie Bush was benched late in the year for constantly fumbling and dropping passes. He has also continued his errors in the preseason. He did break an 86-yard touchdown run in the dress rehearsal, so he’s still capable of making big plays. However, he could hurt the Lions with a back-breaking turnover.

RECAP: The Lions are a stupid team that will kill itself with costly errors. That, however, won’t happen in this game because the Giants are absolutely dreadful. Detroit should be able to cover this spread quite easily; I have the correct number at -9. I don’t like that everyone is jumping on the “Giants suck” bandwagon, but that shouldn’t prevent the Lions from beating the number.

UPDATE: If you like the Lions, bet them now. The line is rising to -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -4.5. The sharps and public were both on the Lions earlier in the week, but there’s been a ton of sharp money on the Giants today. Combine that with the fact that the LVH Supercontest consensus is on Detroit, and I’d drop this to a one-unit bet. The problem is that I’ve locked in the Lions at -5.5 because I thought the line would keep rising. This is just a reminder that spread movements can be very unpredictable.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
About two-thirds action on the host.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 64% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 39-18 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 30-18 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -4.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Giants 12
Lions -5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 35, Giants 14

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.
Monday, Sept. 8, 10:20 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, I’m Kevin Reilly, and I’m pleased to be with you for another season. Wait, that’s not true. My stupid producers are making me broadcast this game with another play-by-play guy because they say I’ve been too much of a homer. Well if those f***ing idiots would understand how great my Eagles are, we wouldn’t have this problem, now would we!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Mike. It is great to be with yourselves for another game. The Cardinal and Charger look like two good ball clubs who are good.

Reilly: Thanks, Emmitt, and for the thousandth time, my name is Kevin. Now, I have to introduce you to the other play-by-play guy, Ron Zappolo. Take it away, Ron, as I contemplate hanging myself while listening to your stupid voice.

Zappolo: Thanks, Mike! It’s great to have everyone with us as we watch the San Diego Bulldogs take on the Arizona Rattlesnakes.

Edwards: NOT A BULLDOG! NOT A DOG! SAN DIEGO NOT A DOG! HE’S NOT A DOG! I MEAN IT’S NOT A DOG! NOT A DOG AT ALL! NOT EVEN CLOSE! NOT EVEN A CAT! NOT THE SAN DIEGO CATS! NOT THE SAN DIEGO BULLCATS! NOT THE SAN DIEGO CATBULLS! NOT A CAT AND NOT A DOG! NOT A FROG EITHER! NOT THE SAN DIEGO BULLFROG! NOT THE SAN DIEGO FROGBULL! NONE OF THAT! THE LOGO IS A BOLT! A LIGHTNING BOLT! A BOLT WITH LIGHTNING! A LIGHTNING WITH A BOLT! NOW TAKE OUT THE WITH! CAN YOU TAKE OUT THE WITH!? CAN YOU DO IT!? BECAUSE I THINK YOU CAN DO IT! DO YOU THINK YOU CAN DO IT! DO YOU BELIEVE YOU CAN DO IT!? DO YOU BELIEVE IN YOURSELF!? ALL YOU GOTTA DO IS BELIEVE IN YOURSELF! BELIEVE IN YOURSELF AND YOU CAN… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, Herm, you annoying a**hole! Ron, I believe it’s the San Diego Chargers and the Arizona Cardinals. Rookie mistake, I know. It’s hard to learn team names when my Eagles aren’t involved.

Fouts: Actually, it’s not that hard, Kevin. All you have to remember is seven things. The first thing is the letter “C.” Chargers begin with the letter “C.” I know because I played for them. The second thing you have to remember is the letter “H.” That’s because “H” comes after “C.” Now, this is not always the case. Take the word Hercules, for example. Notice how the “H” comes before the “C” in that word. That’s not the case with Chargers because the “C” comes before the “H.” Now, this may seem confusing to you, so we can take a step back if you’re not understanding this. Let’s begin again. The first thing you have to remember is the letter “C.” Then…

Reilly: Are you being serious? And I’m the one under review!? What’s this, you’re still trying to talk, Zappolo?

Zappolo: In tonight’s game, the San Diego Bulldogs have a great quarterback named Philip Rivertron. He throws the ball good, what do you guys think?

Reilly: Who the f*** is Philip Rivertron!?

Millen: Kevin, let me tell you, Philip Rivertron is someone I’m too familiar with. I invited Philip Rivertron to my hotel room last night and showed him some of my kielbasas. I rode Philip Rivertron all night long. He was being aggressive, and he stiffened, and let me tell you, Kevin, when he inserted his own kielbasa, I was in heaven.

Zappolo: Thanks, Matt. And now, Don, the Arizona Rattlesnakes have quite the defense themselves, led by Adrian Peterson. He hits good, what do you think?

Tollefson: I’ll tell you what, Ron, Patrick Peterson hits so hard, I bet that he has dozens of naked women in his house cooking and cleaning for him. Now, before I hand it over, I want all you viewers to call into this number: 1-800-TIME-SHARE. I can sell you time shares in Hawaii or the Bahamas for $2.99 per day. It’s a great deal. You can totally trust me. That’s 1-800-TIME-SHARE. Call now before supplies run out!

Zappolo: Thanks, Don. This seems to be a great football game between two football teams that are great. We’ll see if the San Diego Bulldogs can stay on a roll after these messages!

Reilly: On a roll!? This season just started, moron! And sending us to break is my job, f***ing idiot! We’ll be back after this!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The common perception with San Diego is that its defense stinks. That’s understandable, given that Alex Smith and other mediocre quarterbacks torched that defense throughout the course of the 2013 season. However, the team surrendered 24 or fewer points to each of its final seven opponents, and two of those games include battles against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

The Chargers made some changes to their secondary and got Melvin Ingram back from injury. Ingram provided a boost to a lacking pass rush, which would be problematic for the Cardinals if they didn’t make upgrades to their offensive line this offseason. They signed former Raiders’ left tackle Jared Veldheer, who was pretty solid in Oakland. He’ll help shield Carson Palmer, who can be very effective when he gets ample time to throw in the pocket.

The Cardinals have enough firepower on offense to score close to that 24-point marker. Larry Fitzgerald looks completely healthy for a change, while Michael Floyd is waiting to have a breakout year. Then, there’s Andre Ellington, who helped Palmer immensely last season; Palmer maintained a 15-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio after Ellington emerged as the team’s new running back. There’s no reason for that to change, and the Chargers should have trouble containing the speedy Ellington.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers also unexpectedly improved on offense last year. Philip Rivers looked like glue-factory fodder prior to 2013, but Mike McCoy helped revive his career. Rivers played well during the preseason, so it doesn’t appear as though there will be any sort of drop-off with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt gone.

The important thing is that Rivers still has a strong offensive line protecting him. That’s not good news for the Cardinals, who lost Darnell Dockett to injury. Dockett has been a shell of his former self in recent years, but he’s still better than what the team had behind him. Arizona also lost Karlos Dansby to free agency and stud inside linebacker Daryl Washington to suspension, so the team has some defensive issues Rivers should be able to exploit.

Having said that, Rivers won’t exactly have an easy time navigating through Arizona’s stop unit. Its strength is still in the secondary, where the team has two shutdown corners in Patrick Peterson and a now-healthy Antonio Cromartie. Peterson and Cromartie will take away Rivers’ receiving options, but the 32-year-old signal-caller will still be able to move the chains via his running backs and dual tight ends.

RECAP: This spread is -3, and my projected number is -3, so there’s no value with either side. I’m not going to bet this game, but I would take the Cardinals if I had to. There is a media-driven bandwagon for the Chargers going on, which I’m more than happy to go against. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal even have San Diego going to the Super Bowl, which is kind of ridiculous. Let’s fade the media and the betting public once again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are split on this game. They bet on the Chargers earlier in the week when the spread was +3.5 and +3, but some of them took the Cardinals at -2.5. It wouldn’t surprise me if this result landed on exactly three, so I have no interest in wagering on either side. Very slight lean on Arizona.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal have everyone excited about the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 65% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 30, Chargers 23
Cardinals -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 18, Chargers 17

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Bengals +8, Bears -1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Moneyline: Raiders +195 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)