NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl 50

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2015): 8-7-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2015): 11-5 (+$1,550)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2015): 7-7-2 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2015): 8-8 (+$390)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2015): 8-8 (+$910)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2015): 3-1 (+$580)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2015): 2-1-1 (+$780)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2015): 1-1 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2015): 1-0 (+$200)

NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 7, 1:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Carolina Panthers (17-1) vs. Denver Broncos (14-4)
Line: Panthers by 6. Total: 45.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -4.
Sunday, Feb. 7, 6:35 ET
At Santa Clara, Calif.
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not making a pick until the preceding Tuesday, as usual, but I thought I’d weigh in on my thoughts right now. I’m glad I have two weeks to make a selection because I am currently torn on this game, and I don’t think there’s a good side. On one hand, the Panthers are the much better team and could totally run away with this game. If they get out to an early lead, I can’t see Peyton Manning mounting a comeback like the Patriots did versus Seattle last year. On the other hand, there is so much money coming in on the Panthers, as this is the most lopsided Super Bowl ever from a betting perspective. Also, giving the No. 1 defense in the NFL five points just seems like too much.

I’ll think more about this, and I’ll be back during the weekend for some more thoughts before posting my pick on Tuesday.

WEEKEND THOUGHTS: This spread hit -6, and I think it’s finally done moving up. There no sharp bets on Denver as this line was rising, but there was finally some professional action on Broncos +6, which makes sense to me, considering how much the spread has shifted. There’s just good value on Denver. Whether they’re the right side – or the team I’m taking – remains to be seen. I’ll post my pick on Tuesday, and then I’ll investigate some props.

WEEK 20 RECAP: I had my first losing result since Week 12, but it was bound to happen sooner or later. I was way off with my Carolina-Arizona pick, failing to take into account that Carson Palmer is a choking dog. He looked absolutely terrified against the Packers and was very fortunate to escape with a victory. I should’ve known that he’d crap his pants against a better defense, and that’s exactly what he did.

WEEK 21 BETTING TRENDS: This hasn’t happened in this year’s playoffs until Championship Sunday. No team had scored 40 points – until the Panthers did so versus the Cardinals.

Why is this important? Well, teams that have scored 40-plus in the playoffs are just 4-22 against the spread in their following game since 1996!

The reasoning behind this is simple. A team that scores that many points will have the spread inflated in their favor because the public loves to bet on offense (and that’s exactly what happened.) These teams also get overconfident; they slaughter an inferior team and think they’ll prevail just as easily, but that tends not to be the case versus superior opponents.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 52-51-4 against the spread heading into Week 20. There obviously wouldn’t be six teams for Week 20, but how would the top-bet sides fare? Take a look:

Patriots -3.5 – Loss

Panthers -3.5 – Cover

The books got crushed in Week 19 because all the teasers won. Things were better in Week 20 because the Broncos won outright. Carolina’s victory over Arizona hurt, but it wasn’t a blood bath, at least.

Here are the top bets in Week 21, as of Tuesday afternoon (53-52-4 ATS this year):

Panthers -6

There’s a ton of money on the Panthers, which isn’t a surprise in the slightest.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 8 concludes! Emmitt and his crew defeated Kim Jong-un and saved America. Read all about Emmitt’s heroics and how Roger Goodell was involved with Kim Jong-un. Also, Greg Hardy and Jared Fogle finally receive justice.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is McDonald’s McPick 2.

HATE MAIL: I couldn’t find much hate mail this week. In fact, here was the only one from the comment board on the picks page:

See, that’s just dumb. Why wouldn’t I defend a team that’s continuously screwed over by being given a competitive disadvantage? Saying that they should just “win their division” is a very homoclitic thing to say.

Oh, and yeah, I had the Seahawks in the Super Bowl last year, and they were the right side. They led by 10 in the fourth quarter, but relinquished their advantage because they lost a couple of key defenders to injury. Despite this, they still would’ve won had they just given the ball to Marshawn Lynch. Instead, the Patriots came up with a lucky interception, and I lost. It happens. My mistake was not choosing the Seahawks, but for putting so many units on them. It should’ve been a two- or three-unit play at most.

Anyway, there’s some hate mail in my 2016 NFL Mock Draft. Here’s what I’ve been dealing with over there:

I love how people are surprised that I make snarky and insulting comments. This Web site was built on snark and insults. That’s the WF foundation.

This Sunday on CBS, we’re going to have Jim Nantz and Phil Simms calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the 49ers and the gays! Mother told me to wear extra pairs of underwear when I’m in San Francisco so that the homosexuals don’t rape me. Guys, is it just me, or does anyone else not care about the Super Bowl? Peyton Manning is an old f*** and Cam Newton offends me with everything he does.

Herm: THAT’S RACIST! THAT’S RACISM! THAT’S HATEFUL! THAT’S HORRIBLE! THAT’S TERRIBLE! THAT’S NO GOOD! THAT’S VERY BAD! IT’S NOT GOOD TO BE RACIST! IT’S NOT GOOD TO BE HATEFUL! IT’S NOT GOOD TO HATE ON SOMEONE CUZ HE’S BLACK! IT’S NOT GOOD TO HATE ON SOMEONE CUZ HE’S SPANISH! IT’S NOT GOOD TO HATE ON SOMEONE CUZ HE’S ASIAN! IT’S NOT GOOD TO HATE ON SOMEONE CUZ HE’S AUSTRALIAN! EVEN THOUGH AUSTRALIANS ARE KIND OF WEIRD! BECAUSE THEY HAVE KANGAROOS! AND BOOMERANGS! IT FLIES AND THEN IT COMES BACK TO YOU! HOW DOES IT DO THAT!? HERM DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE PHYSICS OF IT! HERM DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE CHEMISTRY OF IT! HERM DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE BIOLOGY OF IT! BUT BIOLOGY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BOOMERANGS! OR DOES IT!? ARE BOOMERANGS ALIVE!? IS THAT HOW THEY COME BACK!? IF SO, THEN BIOLOGY’S GOOD! IF NOT, THEN BIOLOGY MAKES NO SENSE! IT MAKES NO SENSE! HERM MAKES NO SENSE! WAIT, WHY DOES HERM MAKE NO SENSE!? Uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, idiot, and who said I’m racist? I never said I hate Cam because he’s an African Americans, I hate him because he gives footballs to the damn kids in the stands. I dressed up like a kid so I could get a football and he saw right through my ruse. I wanted a football to add to my collection of football player posters and bobble head dolls. Is that so wrong?

Emmitt: Mike, I mean McPick2, why do you not say so in the first place? Or the second place? Or the one that come after second place? I have a lot of football I can autogram for you if you just give me a pen. In fact, I have a football sitting in that closet right there.

*** They get up to open the closet door, and to amazement, Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are sitting shirtless, touching each other’s nipples while looking at Peyton Manning pictures. ***

Jim Nantz: Hello, friends, and welcome to our closet where we’re touching nipples because we’re so excited about calling Peyton Manning’s final game.

Phil Simms: Great to be here, Jim. How great is touching nipples while looking at Peyton Manning? Oh, it’s great, Jim. Wouldn’t want to be anywhere else. And might I say, it’s ironic how the tables have switched. They’ve switched like they’ve never switched before. Here we are, away from our microphones, and yet these guys, who don’t call games in real life, are calling the game. I told you the tables switched, Jim. They switched so many times. How many times did the tables switch, Jim? Oh, I can’t even count how many times they’ve switched, Jim.

Reilly: Great, these two homos are back. Glad I’m wearing extra underwear!

Millen: I have to say, I’m ashamed in you two gentlemen. Had you told me you would be enjoying yourselves to some lovely pictures of 100-percent USDA Men, I would have grabbed some spare kielbasas, and we would’ve enjoyed a glorious time together.

Tollefson: Hey, that’s fine by me. I love gay people. Because that means more single women for me. Single women that I can drug, bring back to my apartment and force to cook and clean naked for me, like God intended. But let’s discuss something else. I love the Super Bowl. I was able to sell the five tickets they gave me for $50,000 each. They’re usually $5,000, but I sold them to some elderly people. I told them I was their grandson, and they totally bought it! Ha!

Millen: That’s stupid, Tolly. Here’s what you need to do with your Super Bowl tickets. You need to find five 1,000-percent USDA Men who are capable of having 10 kielbasas inserted into their backsides at the same time, and then offer them tickets in exchange of one night of kielbasa bliss. I love scalping tickets!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by scalping. You find some guys, preferably weak-looking ones. Ones who won’t be able to call the authorities. And here’s what I mean by authorities. It’s people who have authority. Anyway, you get to these guys and ask them politely if they want to scalp. Regardless of their answer, you scalp them. You grab some rope, tie them down so they can’t move, then take a knife to their head and remove the top layer of their skin. It sounds painful, but I’m told people do it all the time for money. Gotta love scalping.

Wolfley: I SCALPED SOMEONE ONCE. A MAN CAME TO MY HOUSE AND TOLD ME HE WAS A MILKMAN, BUT THEN HE REACHED INTO HIS PANTS AND STARTED TOUCHING HIS MAN PARTS WHILE LOOKING AT A PHOTO I HAD ON THE WALL, AND I WASN’T HAVING IT, SO I SCALPED HIM.

Phil Simms: Great to be there, Ron. That was me, Ron, and boy, looks like the tables have switched. I saw you had a picture of Peyton Manning on your wall, so I couldn’t help myself, Ron. Am I surprised the tables have switched yet again, Ron? Oh, I’d bet I’m surprised, Ron.

Charles Davis: It’s more like the tables have turned, Phil. Let’s talk about more things that turn, Kevin. How about a car, Kevin? That can turn not just left, Kevin. But also right as well, Kevin. How about something in the microwave, Kevin? That turns, right, Kevin? What about a traffic light, Kevin? That doesn’t physically turn, but the light turns a different color, right, Kevin? Let’s discuss those colors, Kevin. There are three colors, Kevin. The red’s the top one, Kevin. That means stop, Kevin. How about the yellow light, Kevin? That means what, Kevin? Slow down, right, Kevin? Now, there’s just one more, Kevin. I’ll give you multiple choices, Kevin. You ready, Kevin? OK, here goes, Kevin. First choice, Russell Wilson, Kevin. Second choice, green, Kevin. Third choice, red, Kevin.

Reilly: GRE…

Charles Davis: Oh, you said Russell Wilson, Kevin? What a shame to fail the final pop quiz of the season, Kevin. Guess you’ll need better luck in the fall, Kevin.

Reilly: THAT’S IT! THAT’S IT! I’M DONE WITH YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I’M GOING TO STRANGLE YOU LIKE I’VE NEVER STRANGLED ANYONE BEFORE!

Phil Simms: Looks like the tables have switched once again, Jim.

Reilly: CHARLES DAVIS, THIS IS YOUR LUCKY DAY BECAUSE I’M GOING TO KILL THE F*** OUT OF THIS F****T PHIL SIMMS RIGHT NOW, AND I CAN TOUCH HIM BECAUSE I HAVE MY EXTRA UNDERWEARS ON! DIE PHIL SIMS, DIE!!!! HAHAHAA YOU LOVE BEING STRANGLED WITH MY ROPE, DON’T YOU! HA! HOW DOES IT FEEL NOT TO BREATHE, PHIL!? LOOKS LIKE THE TABLES HAVE SWITCHED! THE TABLES HAVE SWITCHED FOR YOU FOR THE FINAL TIME! We’ll be back right after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning sucks. I’m telling you something Nantz and Simms won’t during Sunday’s telecast, but Manning sucks. He was woefully inept against the Steelers in the divisional round and should’ve lost that game. He outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC Championship, but only because Brady was so rattled by Denver’s ferocious pass rush that he began seeing ghosts in the pocket. Manning, meanwhile, did a decent job of converting some third downs early in the game, but missed numerous throws he would’ve made in his sleep two years ago. This includes two errant shots into the end zone that would’ve put the game away. The Broncos are only here because Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point and Bill Belichick screwed up in the final six minutes by not kicking field goals.

The one thing Manning still has, besides his ridiculous number of commercials, is his intelligence, and I think he’ll be able to scheme around Carolina’s defense. Thus, I don’t think Luke Kuechly will have his usual pick-six. Unfortunately for Manning, this may not be enough. The only place the Panthers are vulnerable is their secondary (wherever Josh Norman isn’t playing.) Manning has adequate weapons around him, but he no longer possesses the arm strength to exploit this liability. That’s why I thought the Cardinals would win two weeks ago, but as I wrote earlier, I underestimated Carson Palmer’s cowardice.

The other problem for Manning is pass protection. Denver’s offensive line isn’t as bad as New England’s, but it’s not very good either. The Panthers had the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (44), and they definitely rattled Palmer, so they’ll swarm the Broncos’ backfield.

Speaking of which, I’d be surprised if Denver were able to establish C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman (especially the latter). The Panthers finished with the league’s sixth-best run defense. Not that Hillman could exploit any matchup. He stinks, and every time he gets the ball, it’s a wasted down. I don’t understand what Gary Kubiak’s infatuation is with him, but it would be a huge mistake to continue featuring him.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The matchup on this side of the ball is much more interesting. Cam Newton, presumably the league’s MVP, has been a terror for opposing stop units all season. Meanwhile, the Broncos sport the NFL’s No. 1 defense. This is the best offense-defense matchup we’ve seen all season, so try to enjoy it amid the horrible commentary throughout the game.

Some may point to the fact that Newton torched the Seahawks and Cardinals for a reason why this won’t be as exciting as I’m anticipating. The difference, however, is the pass rush. Both Seattle and Arizona finished in the middle of the pack in terms of getting to the quarterback in 2015. The Broncos, on the other hand, accumulated the most sacks.

This will present a challenge for Newton. Because the Broncos can hound opposing signal-callers with just four men, they can afford to drop the other seven into coverage. Newton and his offensive line haven’t faced an opponent like this all season. Seriously – the only two teams in the top 10 in terms of sacks Carolina has battled this year have been the Packers and Titans. Green Bay racked up its sack total down the stretch after making adjustments, while Tennessee did keep things close with the Panthers for a while, but were too offensively challenged to keep up.

The Broncos are going to be a different story. I love the matchup that Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware have against Carolina’s tackles, Michael Oher and Mike Remmers. The latter is a liability, while the Blind Side has been fine this year, but not overly dominant. Meanwhile, the Panthers won’t be able to run much either, given that the Broncos are No. 1 versus the rush as well.

RECAP: I wrote last week that I wasn’t too confident in this pick. I feel a bit better about it now, though I don’t feel strongly enough to make this a big play. But I do like the Broncos to cover.

When this number was +3.5 or +4, this game was much more difficult to handicap. But it’s at +6 now – +6 -105 at Bovada – which seems ridiculous. Six is way too many points to give the best defense in football. It just is. Think about it this way: If the Broncos were playing at Carolina, this spread would be +8.5 or +9. Doesn’t that seem outrageous to you? That’s how much the Panthers were favored by over the freaking Falcons, for crying out loud!

But what about Manning? Doesn’t he suck? Sure, but the Broncos’ defense should keep this game close. Besides, backing the superior quarterback in the Super Bowl since 2000 has been a losing proposition. It’s true! Take a look:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning:

Keep in mind that this was how the quarterbacks were perceived at the time. Right now, you’d obviously take Brady over Warner, as well as Flacco over Kaepernick, but Warner and Kaepernick were considered superior at the time.

At any rate, as you can see, the better quarterbacks are 5-8 straight up and 3-10 against the spread in the Super Bowl since 2000, when applicable. That’s pretty remarkable. It’s not a reason to just blindly bet Denver, but it just debunks the thought process that the Panthers are just going to cover easily because Newton is better than Manning.

Could Carolina cover, though? Absolutely. Hey, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers won 31-10, or something like that. It could definitely happen, as Carolina is undoubtedly the superior team.

But are the Panthers six points better than the Broncos on a neutral field? I don’t think so.

I’m going with Denver for two units, and I’m locking that in on Bovada at +6 -105. I could be wrong, but I think this spread is done going up, and I’ll be shocked if the sharps, who haven’t shown their hand yet, jump on Carolina.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time seven years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona money line. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There’s nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence (as long as there are no 100-percent USDA Men or kielbasas involved, of course).

Unfortunately, I don’t see any locks like this one. However, I found five props I really like:

1. Will the team that scores first win the game – No +145 (5Dimes.com): In the previous 14 Super Bowls, six teams that scored first ended up losing the game. Scoring first doesn’t mean as much as people think. Because of this, +145 is a pretty decent bargain.

2. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -130 (5Dimes.com): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 11 of the 49 Super Bowls.

3. Over-Under on Nipple Rubs by Jim Nantz and Phil Simms during the game – Over 33.5 -120 (WalterDimes.com): Come on, how can this not go over? This is Manning’s last “rodeo” after all!

3. Carolina wins by 1-6 points +335; Denver wins by 1-6 points +450 (5Dimes): I like this scheme because there’s a good chance we’ll get one of these two right. Most of the recent Super Bowls have been close, save for the demolition two years ago.

4. Will there be a scoreless quarter – No -260 (Bovada): In the previous 11 Super Bowls, there have only been two scoreless quarters.

5. Over-Under on Peyton Manning commercials during the Super Bowl – Over 3.5 -120 (WalterDimes.com): Gotcha! This isn’t a real prop, though it very easily could be. There’s going to be so much Manning on TV that we’ll probably see Nantz and Simms rubbing nipples during the actual ads.

5. Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -??? (5Dimes): In the previous 29 Super Bowls, the second half is 19-9-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits two out of three times at just -???. I know that the Patriots and Seahawks have a habit of shutting down their foes after halftime, but the Super Bowl tends to be a different animal.

I’ll have my annual live Super Bowl blog during the big game. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come pouring in on Denver, which is not a surprise because this spread was way too high. The professionals have been going against Carolina all year, sure, but this is the first time the Panthers are fully expected to win a big game by the general public. I think this huge pressure might get to them. That, on top of everyone doubting the Broncos, could give Denver a big psychological edge.

The Broncos are still available at +6 at one book: Bovada. If you want to bet Denver, get them there at that price because this spread could continue to fall in the next hour and a half. On the other hand, if you want to wager on Carolina, wait to see if you can get a -4. Good luck to everyone betting this game, and don’t forget to follow my Live Super Bowl Blog during the game.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

No one is giving the Broncos a chance despite the fact that they have the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers are talking as if they already won the Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Everyone believes that betting the Panthers is easy money. Perhaps it is…

Percentage of money on Carolina: 68% (226,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Peyton Manning is 16-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Peyton Manning is 6-13 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).

Opening Line: Panthers -4.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Super Bowl 50 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Broncos 20
Broncos +6 -105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 24, Panthers 10
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will the team that scores first win the game – No +145 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -130 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$260

Carolina wins by 1-6 points +335 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Denver wins by 1-6 points +450 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Will there be a scoreless quarter – No -260 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -120 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$120

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)