NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2016): 7-8-1 (-$440) full review
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2016): 8-8 (+$55)

NFL Picks (2016): 130-103-9 (+$2,990)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 24, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at Oakland Raiders (11-3)
Line: Raiders by 4. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -3.
Saturday, Dec 24, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: Last year, I posted a music video called Everyday Normal Guy. Thanks to Mark P., I discovered that they made a sequel! There’s cursing in this, so keep that in mind if at work or in school:

Ten times a day? Normal guy my a**!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As I mentioned in the Packers-Vikings capsule, the reason why Andrew Luck was able to be so productive last week versus a previously stalwart Minnesota defense was because of Harrison Smith’s absence. Smith’s injury had a huge impact on the game, and Luck torched the Vikings as a result.

Luck could be in good fortune once again in this matchup if Karl Joseph misses another game. The rookie safety has been terrific for the Raiders, but he’s missed the past two-and-a-half games with a foot injury. If he’s out or limited, that could give Luck the opportunity he needs to torch the Raiders, who allowed some deep passes to the Bills and Chiefs, two teams that have far inferior quarterbacks compared to Luck. Thus, it’ll be crucial for Oakland to generate as much pressure on Luck as possible. It can do this with Khalil Mack, who has a matchup of a lifetime against the Colts’ inept right tackle spot.

That said, the Colts have a big matchup edge on this side of the ball with Frank Gore running against Oakland’s pedestrian interior. The Raiders surrendered 130 yards on the ground to LeSean McCoy a few weeks ago, and while Gore obviously isn’t as talented as McCoy at this stage of his career, he’s coming off a 100-yard performance against the Vikings and could have another.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Under normal circumstances, the Raiders would be able to light up the scoreboard against the Colts. After all, Indianapolis has tons of holes on its defense. It can’t rush the passer very effectively, while Vontae Davis is too banged up to cover anyone well. The run defense has also been an issue, but it hasn’t been overly abysmal.

These aren’t normal circumstances, however, as Derek Carr is still dealing with a dislocated pinky. Carr was definitely better this past Sunday than he was in Kansas City, and the better weather certainly helped. However, he still wasn’t quite himself. He was off a bit, and being off in a potential shootout could cost his team a victory, even with his two dynamic receivers being matched up against inferior cornerbacks.

Latavius Murray and Jalen Richard should be able to exploit Indianapolis’ other liability, however. Neither runner is very good, but Oakland’s offensive line is so punishing that it continues to blow open huge holes for Murray, and that’ll once again be the case in this contest.

RECAP: I’m upset we lost the advance line on this game. The Raiders were projected as six-point favorites, and I was going to make a huge bet on the Colts as a result. I personally made this number +3, as the Raiders don’t deserve a full three for being at home. Unfortunately, this number is now just +3.5 in most places, with Bovada offering a rare +4 -115.

I imagine some are surprised by this spread being so low, but once again, Oakland doesn’t have a strong home-field advantage (2-4 ATS as hosts this year). Also, Carr’s dislocated finger continues to be a concern. Carr has been better, but he’s not quite himself. That could impact Oakland’s ability to cover the spread.

Meanwhile, Luck has covered the spread all but one time he’s been an underdog of 3.5 or more the past two years. The lone exception was at Denver in Week 2, and the Colts deserved that cover, but didn’t get it because the Broncos had a scoop-and-score in the final minute off a strip-sack. As I’ve constantly said, if you can get an elite quarterback as an underdog of more than a field goal, you have to take it almost every time. And that’s exactly what I’ll do here for three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bovada is still offering +4 -115, while most other books have the Colts listed at +3.5. I still feel strongly about Indianapolis.

FRIDAY NOTES: This line hasn’t budged at all anywhere, and there’s no indication of any sharp activity. Perhaps that’ll change Saturday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to drop this to one unit because the Colts could be eliminated if the Titans beat the Jaguars. They’ll have the slightest chance to get the wild card, but those are unrealistic odds. If Tennessee wins, the Colts could mail this one in.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: As of this writing, the Titans are down 25-10 at the end of the third quarter, and Marcus Mariota was just carted off. The Colts will have something to play for, so I’ll increase this to three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Raiders just won their division, and they have to play at Denver next week. The Colts are more desperate.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight lean on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 60% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 11-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or more since 2013.

Raiders are 6-21 ATS in their final home game since 1985.

Raiders are 16-30 ATS after a win since 2009.

Raiders are 7-25 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -4.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Colts 23
Colts +4 -115 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$345
Under 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 33, Colts 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -1.
Saturday, Dec 24, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…

Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston looked like three different quarterbacks Sunday night. He struggled a bit at first, then caught fire in the third quarter, when he was unstoppable, but he regressed toward the end, seemingly incapable of completing a pass to save his life. I imagine Winston will be better against the Saints. Of course, this is obvious, given New Orleans’ struggles against the pass. The Saints’ back seven won’t be able to match up with Mike Evans or Cameron Brate at all.

However, it’s more than just the matchup, or the fact that Winston is a very good quarterback in general. A major reason why Winston is expected to rebound is the return of right tackle Demar Dotson, who missed the Dallas game. Dotson is a terrific blocker, and he was sorely missed, as Gosder Cherilus was a big downgrade. Dallas’ David Irving also posed some major, unexpected problems.

While Winston will play better, the same can’t be said about Doug Martin, who has averaged more than just 2.9 yards per carry in a game just once since his return to the lineup. Martin sucks right now, so the Buccaneers should consider giving Charles Sims more of a workload. Either way, I don’t see Tampa running on the Saints very effectively.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees just battled the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and his stat line was very poor. He went 25-of-41 for 257 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. Part of the reason for this was Tampa’s improved defense creating some plays. However, the numbers were misleading, as Brees had two touchdowns that were dropped. He could’ve enjoyed a much better afternoon, and it’s possible New Orleans could’ve won that game under different circumstances.

I’m not sure the Saints will be able to get revenge, however. Sure, they’ll have Max Unger at center, unlike last time, but Terron Armstead is out, which wasn’t the case in the prior meeting. Andrus Peat will be starting at left tackle again, which spells trouble against Robert Ayers, who has been awesome this year. He and Gerald McCoy will cause some major problems for Brees.

The Saints won’t be able to establish much of a rushing attack either. The Buccaneers have been solid against the run all year, and I don’t see why that would suddenly change. Ezekiel Elliott broke free for 100 yards on the ground against them, but Elliott has done that against pretty much everyone, so I won’t hold that against the Buccaneers. It’ll be much easier to contain Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower.

RECAP: I was pretty shocked to see a spread like this. The Buccaneers are definitely better than the Saints, so why would they be full field-goal underdogs to New Orleans? It’s not like there’s been a ton of public money on Tampa either to indicate that this might be a trap. It’s not, as the line is just off.

I personally made this spread Saints -1. The Buccaneers won in Kansas City and San Diego, and they battled the Cowboys closely in Dallas for the most part. Tampa just happens to be better on the road than at home. The only contest, outside of the Dallas affair, the Buccaneers have lost as visitors this year was at Arizona in Week 2, and that was a bad matchup because Carson Palmer was able to exploit their weak safeties. The Buccaneers have made enough positive adjustments to their defense to allow Brees to do the same thing. We even saw Brees fail to do this two weeks ago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I just saw a report stating that Demar Dotson still hasn’t cleared concussion protocol. This is a big deal. If Dotson is ruled out, I’m going to drop the unit count here to either two or three. I’d still like the Buccaneers, but not as much.

FRIDAY NOTES: I don’t understand why, but this spread has moved to +3.5. I still love the Buccaneers. I’m going to keep this at four units for now, but if +4 appears, I may increase my wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a game I should’ve locked in, as the +3.5s have disappeared. We do have favorable juice on the Buccaneers though, as the line is +3 +100 at 5Dimes.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

The Buccaneers are a sharp underdog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 73% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Saints have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Road Team is 75-43 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Saints are 36-26 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Saints 20
Buccaneers +3 +100 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$400
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 31, Buccaneers 24

San Francisco 49ers (1-13) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
Line: Rams by 5. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -2.5.
Saturday, Dec 24, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I’d like to talk about the 49ers’ defense for a second, and how stupid Chip Kelly is in relation to it. If you somehow missed it – and I don’t blame you if you did, because the game was utterly worthless – Kelly deactivated Gerald Hodges an hour prior to the Atlanta game for violating some sort of team rule. Hodges has been the best player on San Francisco’s defense in the wake of NaVorro Bowman’s injury, and without Hodges, the 49ers dressed just two inside linebackers. Naturally, one of them, Nick Bellore, got hurt, so the 49ers had to use a 205-pound reserve safety at inside linebacker. Just in case you wanted to know how the Falcons scored on almost every possession.

I’m guessing Hodges will be back, which will strengthen San Francisco’s stop unit. That wouldn’t be enough against normal teams, but the Rams are anything but. Jared Goff absolutely sucks, and I’m not positive that he can engineer multiple scoring drives, even in a plus matchup like this one. It’s definitely a plus because the 49ers can’t rush the passer, so anemic left tackle Greg Robinson won’t be exposed as a liability for once.

On the other hand, Todd Gurley will trample the 49ers’ atrocious run defense. San Francisco hasn’t been able to stop the rush, even when Hodges has been in the lineup, so Gurley could have a great game for once. If you drafted him, and somehow made it to the finals in spite of him, enjoy the rare, positive outcome.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers weren’t always completely inept on this side of the ball; they posted some points against the Dolphins that one time, so they were partly inept. However, things have changed. Center Daniel Kilgore has been knocked out for the year, while stud left tackle Joe Staley has been out of the lineup because of a hamstring injury. The 49ers, who already had problems blocking, lost their two top linemen, so they’ve completely struggled to move the chains since the second half of the Jets game.

That’ll once again be the case, unless Staley returns and is 100 percent. The Rams have a stalwart defensive front, headlined by the amazing Aaron Donald, who will create havoc for Colin Kaepernick in the backfield. Kaepernick will constantly be under siege, so he’ll have to scramble for first downs because he doesn’t have anyone left to throw to.

The 49ers could have success on the ground with Carlos Hyde, especially if Staley suits up. The Rams are great against the run when they try, but there’s no guarantee they’ll show any sort of emotion or urgency in this game.

RECAP: There’s no way in hell I’m wagering on this game. You couldn’t even pay me enough to bet it. I just don’t want to. Both of these teams are beyond horrible. They happen to be a combined 7-18 against the spread this year, and they’re 3-14 ATS beginning in Week 5!

I’m taking the 49ers for office-pool purposes because the Rams shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal. They’re just too crappy. However, either squad could be a no-show, so wagering on this game isn’t safe. Hell, both teams could be no-shows!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money that moved this down to +3.5. I still don’t get who’s crazy enough to bet this game, but whatever.

FRIDAY NOTES: If I absolutely had to bet this game, I’d take the under, but I’m not crazy about that. I refuse to bet on either of these miserable teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams have been bet up to -5 by the sharps. I don’t know why, but perhaps they don’t have the same sort of experience of losing with the Rams that I do. You couldn’t pay me to bet them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
A sharp lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 53% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 16 of the last 22 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 13-29 ATS.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Rams 16, 49ers 13
49ers +5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 22, Rams 21

Arizona Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4-1)
Line: Seahawks by 8. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -7.
Saturday, Dec 24, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

This is a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We’re now down to 92, as we lost just three players last week.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I wanted to begin with the Cardinals in order to discuss the Earl Thomas injury. The Packers took advantage of Thomas’ absence two weeks ago, but the Rams couldn’t do so for obvious reasons. In fact, they had two chances for big plays, as receivers were open downfield. The first was dropped, while the second was a poor pass by the incompetent Jared Goff. Thus, the Seahawks have been tested only once without Thomas, and they’re 0-for-1 in that regard.

The Cardinals should be able to take advantage of Thomas’ absence. Carson Palmer has been erratic this year, playing much better at home, but he’s had his moments in Seattle, going 29-of-47, 363 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in a victory there last year. Michael Floyd is gone, but this appears to be addition by subtraction, as the lethargic Floyd was just preventing John Brown and J.J. Nelson from contributing. Both wideouts played well last week.

Palmer’s pass protection should continue to be an issue, as the Seahawks have the matchup edges in the trenches on this side of the ball. However, David Johnson will keep the Seahawks honest. Seattle is very good against the run, but Johnson eclipses 100 total yards against everyone, and he’ll be a big factor in this matchup.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals have injury issues of their own defensively. Deone Bucannon and Tyvon Branch are both out for the year, while Tyrann Mathieu is banged up and clearly not himself. There will definitely be opportunities for Russell Wilson to torch the Cardinals suddenly injury-ravaged secondary and linebacking corps, just as Drew Brees did this past Sunday.

That said, the Cardinals have two things going for them on this side of the ball. The first is their pass rush against Seattle’s anemic front line. The struggles the Seahawks have with their blocking have been well-documented, and Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell and Markus Golden all have positive matchups they should be able to exploit quite easily. Wilson, naturally, will counter this by maneuvering the pocket and scrambling like he usually does.

The second advantage for Arizona is its run defense, which has been pretty stalwart this season. Thus, the Seahawks won’t be able to pound Thomas Rawls very effectively, to the chagrin of Richard Sherman, who wants his team to constantly rush the ball at the 1-yard line even though Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Yeah, don’t agree with that one.

RECAP: This spread is pretty high, considering the Seahawks are not at full strength. Even if the Cardinals trail early, they’ll still be able to throw a back-door touchdown because Earl Thomas isn’t in the lineup.

I’m not sure Arizona will need a back-door score anyway. This is the team’s Super Bowl, as it’ll be able to end this horrible season on a positive note by knocking the hated Seahawks out of the No. 2 seed. The Cardinals have the Rams next week in a meaningless game, so this is their final chance to do something significant. Besides, Arizona has enjoyed success in Seattle recently, winning two of its previous three games there despite being underdogs in each contest.

The Seahawks just aren’t themselves without Thomas. They struggled to put away the Rams last Thursday, for crying out loud. As a result, this spread is 1.5 or two points too high, so I like Arizona for a couple of units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So much for getting +9! That spread was listed at 5Dimes briefly when I was doing my picks Tuesday, but that’s gone. Most of the +8s have disappeared as well, but Bovada still has +8 -115. Given the less-favorable line, I’m dropping this to one unit.

FRIDAY NOTES: I wish this line were still +9. Maybe it’ll increase on Saturday at some point. As of now, I still like the Cardinals for a unit, as this is their Super Bowl.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no +9, though 5Dimes is offering +9.5 -125. That’s way too much juice. I’ll keep an eye on this spread to see if anything changes.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals have nothing to play for next week at Los Angeles, so they’ll treat this as their Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won 5 of the past 7 meetings, excluding the 2016 tie.

Bruce Arians is 35-29 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Seahawks are 19-5 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 40-19 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31

Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1) at Houston Texans (8-6)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -3.
Saturday, Dec 24, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the 15th chapter, Emmitt’s friends attempt to escape the League of Failed General Managers’ facility, while Emmitt falls into the portal of the evil dimension.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Brock Osweiler has finally been benched. The Texans should’ve made the change weeks ago, but they finally made the move to Tom Savage. Oh yeah! Savage actually took shots downfield to DeAndre Hopkins, which had to make this year’s top fantasy bust ecstatic.

We’ll have to see how Savage performs in order to tell if he has any sort of long-term future in this league. He has a nice arm, and he can’t be any worse than Osweiler. However, he had accuracy issues coming out of Pittsburgh, so he’ll likely be erratic with his passes. I also worry about his ability to handle a pass rush. The Jaguars can’t pressure the quarterback, so he didn’t have to deal with that last week. However, Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins figure to flood the backfield versus the right side of Houston’s offensive line, which is very weak because of injuries.

I wouldn’t expect Lamar Miller to do much either. The Bengals have been so much better against the run ever since their bye, which was when Vontaze Burfict shook off his early rust and became the dominant force the Bengals have been used to him being. Besides, Miller isn’t completely healthy anyway, as he got banged up at the end of last week’s game.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Texans have injury concerns on this side of the ball as well. Johnathan Joseph is dealing with a rib issue, so his status is up in the air. Whitney Mercilus’ status is more dire, as he has a problematic back. Mercilus is a terrific pass-rusher, so his presence is crucial for winning this game, as the Texans won’t be able to take advantage of the liability Houston has at right tackle without him.

A.J. Green, meanwhile, is another injured player whose status has yet to be determined. It sounds like Green will return this week, but at what capacity? If he’s not 100 percent, he’ll have issues in a tough matchup against A.J. Bouye, who has been terrific this year. If he’s completely fine, however, he’ll open up Cincinnati’s offense once more. The Bengals sputtered in the second half of the loss to Pittsburgh, and that almost certainly wouldn’t have happened with a healthy Green.

Either way, Green’s availability will be extra prevalent because the Bengals won’t be able to run the ball effectively. This is nothing new, as Jeremy Hill has been pretty sluggish as a rusher, though he’ll continue to be a factor in the passing game.

RECAP: It seems as though there are too many injury factors to make a concrete selection at the moment. And even if that weren’t the case, I just don’t know what to make of this game. I’d like to cite the Aurora Snowmo effect impacting this contest, but given that the Texans are barely favored, and the public is siding with the Bengals, they may not be in a position to choke because they’re effectively underdogs. Then again, they’d probably deserve to be underdogs if Green plays and Mercilus sits out.

I’m going to side with the Bengals for now, but I may change my mind. Check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has pushed this down to pick ’em. There might be some value with the Texans now, but I still don’t feel strongly enough to bet this game.

FRIDAY NOTES: This is going to be a pick change. Vontaze Burfict is out, which is a huge deal because he’s the reason why the Bengals have been better since their bye. The Texans will be able to run all over Cincinnati with Burfict Strangers out of the lineup. Meanwhile, Tyler Eifert is out as well, so it’s not like the offense is going to improve with A.J. Green due back.

SATURDAY MORNING NOTES: The Bengals won’t have A.J. Green in addition to Vontaze Burfict and Tyler Eifert. I’m going to throw two units on the Texans, as they should be able to beat a skeleton-crew Cincinnati squad.

FINAL THOUGHTS: What a horrible day. Almost every team I picked happened to have one of their worst performances of the season. I don’t even know what happened. I thought I had gotten some great numbers, especially with Panthers +3 and Bears +3, but they both crapped the bed. I have no explanation for this. Anyway, I’m sticking with two units on the Texans, as the Bengals could put forth no effort like the Panthers did after ownership overruled the coaches and sat A.J. Green. The sharps seem to agree, as they’ve been betting Houston today.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Sharp action coming in on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 63% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bengals are 33-20 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Bengals are 7-12 ATS after playing the Steelers.

Marvin Lewis is 11-13 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Texans 19, Bengals 16
Texans -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 12, Bengals 10

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
Sunday, Dec 25, 4:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Relaxation Saturday.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers lost to the Ravens in their previous meeting, but that was Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury. He wasn’t nearly himself, and Pittsburgh struggled to score as a result. Roethlisberger still isn’t completely 100 percent, but he’s in a much better state to beat the Ravens this time around.

The Ravens will be hoping that Jimmy Smith returns from injury in order to slow down the Roethlisberger-to-Antonio Brown connection. The Ravens struggled against the pass at New England following Smith’s injury, as most teams would after losing their top cornerback. Having him back on the field would make an enormous difference. Otherwise, the Ravens will have to place extra pressure on Roethlisberger, and their only matchup advantage in the trenches is Terrell Suggs on the blind side, but it’s not like Pittsburgh’s left tackle is a liability.

The Steelers will obviously attempt to establish Le’Veon Bell. I normally wouldn’t expect much from him on the ground because the Ravens have been solid against ground attacks for most of the year, but the Eagles ran the ball very well with Ryan Mathews last week. Regardless, Bell will have a huge performance as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While Roethlisberger has been a bit off, he’s been better than Joe Flacco, who continues to be completely erratic. He’ll make some terrific throws throughout the game, and then he’ll follow those up with bone-headed decisions, like the pick he threw in the red zone last week to give Philadelphia a chance to prevail. The Ravens were able to hold on against the pedestrian Eagles, but Flacco screwing up versus the Steelers will almost certainly ensure a defeat.

It’ll help Flacco if Stephon Tuitt is out. Tuitt, the team’s best, healthy defensive lineman, was knocked out of last week’s game with a knee injury. Tuitt’s absence would give Flacco much more time to throw, allowing him to expose some of the liabilities the Steelers have in their secondary and linebacking corps. However, if Tuitt is 100 percent, I wouldn’t expect Flacco to enjoy nearly as much success.

Tuitt is also strong versus the run, so if he’s ruled out, it would really open things up Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon. The Ravens really need to start using Dixon more. I know he blew a block that resulted in a Flacco strip-sack versus the Eagles, but he’s so much more explosive than the plodding West. Either way, I wouldn’t expect Baltimore to run very effectively if Tuitt is in the lineup.

RECAP: The Steelers are favored by a point too many. I made this spread -4, but the books have listed this line at -5.

I’m taking the underdog. Most Baltimore-Pittsburgh games are very close. In the Flacco era, 15 of the 20 meetings he’s had against the Steelers have been decided by a single score. Given that Roethlisberger is a bit hindered by his injury, and the Steeler defense could be missing Tuitt, I think taking the points is the way to go.

Unfortunately, there’s not much value going from +4 to +5. I’d consider a wager on the Ravens if they were to be getting six points or more. Let’s hope the line continues to go up!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is inching closer to +6, but I don’t think we’ll get there unless Bovada offers something like +6 -120. That might be worth a one-unit wager. Maybe two if Jimmy Smith plays, but it’s not looking good for him.

FRIDAY NOTES: The Steelers are now six-point favorites, so the number is now high enough for me to wager a unit on the Ravens. This spread doesn’t seem quite right, especially considering that Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been particularly sharp recently.

SATURDAY MORNING NOTES: The Steelers are still favored by six, and that line could rise, as 5Dimes has Ravens +6.5 -120 listed.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Yesterday was absolutely horrible. Bad luck and even worse picks gave me a loss of 15 units. However, today is a new day, so hopefully it’ll be better. I still like the Ravens for a unit. The Steelers haven’t been quite right lately, as Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t appear to be 100 percent. Plus, games in this rivalry are usually close. I wish Jimmy Smith were playing, but I still think Baltimore is worth a small wager. Bovada has the best number, offering +6 -105.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 53% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 22 of the last 31 meetings (Flacco 6-8 vs. Roethlisberger).

Steelers are 33-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 44-24 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 20
Ravens +6 -105 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 31, Ravens 27

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 37.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 25, 8:30 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook.

Here’s a post predicting the outcome of the Seahawks-Rams game:

Thank the lord that someone finally called Mario out on his math errors. I’ve been trying for this to happen all year, and yet everyone has focused on the horrible spelling instead.

Unfortunately, I didn’t get responses to my other troll posts. I am disappoint. Perhaps I’ll try to get the Kevin Reilly or Vivian Williamson accounts going next year.

DENVER OFFENSE: In the previous matchup against the Chiefs, neither team could get anything going on the offensive side of the ball until the fourth quarter and overtime, when both defenses were gassed because of altitude sickness. The altitude won’t be a factor in this matchup, obviously, so it’ll be up to Trevor Siemian to find a way to engineer enough scoring drives to prevail versus a Kansas City defense that won’t be fatigued by the end of the night.

Siemian took a ton of flak for the loss to the Patriots, but outside of the horrible interception inside his own 5-yard line, I don’t think he performed too poorly. His receivers were guilty of dropping a ton of passes, and his tackles didn’t hold up well at all. His wideouts struggling was pretty surprising because he has two great ones, but Demaryius Thomas and company kept letting the ball slip through their hands. The tackles, meanwhile, continue to be big issues, and they’ll be especially problematic in this contest because they have to go up against Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.

The Chiefs can be beaten on the ground, especially with Derrick Johnson out of the lineup, but the Broncos aren’t capable of taking advantage of that right now. They haven’t been able to run the ball effectively with C.J. Anderson hurt.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have similar problems on their offensive line. Their tackles aren’t so bad, though Eric Fisher isn’t very good. The interior has struggled as well, so it’ll be very crucial that Derek Wolfe suits up. Wolfe was knocked out of last week’s game against the Patriots, and New England was so much more potent offensively once he was gone. If Wolfe is out, that’ll be a huge break for the Chiefs, though I still fully expect Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to crash the backfield and make life very difficult for Alex Smith.

Smith doesn’t take many shots downfield, but he was able to complete a long pass to Jeremy Maclin last week. That obviously won’t happen against the Broncos, who have two elite cornerbacks in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris to make sure that Smith doesn’t get into too much of a rhythm offensively.

The Broncos can be beaten on this side of the ball in two ways, mirroring Kansas City’s defensive liabilities. The first is something the Chiefs may not be able to take advantage of, which is Denver’s struggles against the run. Spencer Ware had a strong start to his 2016 campaign, but appears to be worn down. The second is the Broncos’ poor play versus tight ends. Travis Kelce can certainly exploit that, so I expect him to have a big game.

RECAP: I’m not surprised the Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal, given that the public is down on Denver. However, I don’t think this line should be that high. I’ve talked about this a lot before, but one of the popular misconceptions among casual bettors and football fans is Kansas City’s home-field advantage. It’s simply not very good. The Chiefs, who have already lost to the Buccaneers and Titans as hosts this year, are just 12-18 against the spread at Arrowhead under Andy Reid. The only time they won by more than a single score at home since Week 7, 2015, was against the Jets in Week 3 this year, which was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s six-interception game.

There’s definitely some value in the Broncos at +3.5. I made this line +2.5, so it’s only a point of value, but crossing the key number of three is a huge deal, especially since this could easily be a field-goal game. Eight of the previous 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a single score.

I’m going to take the Broncos for two units, and if Wolfe suits up, I may move this to three units. I wish we were still getting +4; that’s what the spread was on Monday, but the sharps bet this line down to +3.5. That’s still good enough for a multi-unit wager, but hopefully it moves back up to +4.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a good amount of public action coming in on the Chiefs, as people are once again under the wrong impression that Kansas City has a significant home-field advantage. Let’s use this to our advantage.

FRIDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed, as we’re still waiting on the Wolfe news. There haven’t been any signs of this line moving up, but that can happen unexpectedly.

SATURDAY MORNING NOTES: Justin Houston is out for the Chiefs. The Broncos (+3.5 -115 at Bovada), look even better right now. I may place a third unit on Denver.

FINAL THOUGHTS: In addition to Houston being out, two bits of good news for those betting on the Broncos. First, Derek Wolfe will be playing, so Denver’s defensive front will be at full strength. Second, Bovada is offering +3.5 -105. I’d rather have +4, but that number is still good enough for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The public believes that the Chiefs have a significant home-field advantage, which isn’t true.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 69% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Broncos have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Broncos are 2-18 SU in December games at Arrowhead.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Broncos 16
Broncos +3.5 -105 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$210
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 33, Broncos 10

Detroit Lions (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-2)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.5.
Monday, Dec 26, 8:30 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the terrible city of Dallas, home of the no-good horrible, miserable, poopy Cowboys, who deserve to die in a fire with Herm Edwards! Tonight’s game features the Detroit Tigers taking on the Cowboys. Guys, I’ve tried everything to get rid of my Eagles’ rivals. I tried to kill quarterbacks. I tried hiring ISIS to eliminate them. I tried spreading rumors about them. Nothing’s worked, so I’ve decided to get mother involved. I asked mother to bake cookies for some of the Cowboy players. Little do they know that I’ve poisoned the cookies. Soon, Jack Prescott and Dez Brian will meet their fates!

Emmitt: Enid, I do not think Jack Prescott the rightfulness name of the quarterback of the Cowboy. I do not know his real first name or second name or third name even, but Jack do not seem right because I would have remember Jack. That is because Jack and Jill gone up the hill to fetch a barrel of water. Jack falled down, landed in something brown, and Jill have sexual with the other man by the lake.

Herm: THAT’S NOT RIGHT! JILL NEVER HAD NO SEX! JILL NEVER DID NOTHING WITH NOBODY! JILL GOT WATER! THEN THERE WAS A CROWN INVOLVED! THE CROWN BROKE! THE CROWN SHATTERED! THE CROWN GOT DEBACLED! THIS HAPPENED AFTER THE WATER! FOLLOWING WHEN THEY GOT THE WATER! BUT WHAT HAPPENED TO THE WATER!? WHAT HAPPENED!? HERM WANTS TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENED! THE WATER’S IMPORTANT! WATER’S VITAL TO LIFE! NEED WATER! NEED TO DRINK WATER! HERM NEEDS WATER! HERM’S THROAT’S DRY! BUT HERM FELL DOWN! WHAT HAPPENED TO HERM’S WATER!? WHAT HAPPENED TO HERM’S CROWN!? AND DID HERM EVER HAVE A CROWN IN THE FIRST PLACE!? HERM… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, you idiot! Now, who’s going to help me get these cookies to Jack Prescott?

Tollefson: I’ll help you, Kevin, as long as I get to give some to the Cowboy cheerleaders so that they pass out, and then I can bring them back to my apartment and then tie them to chairs in the closet until they agree to cook and cleak naked for me.

Reilly: No! Cheerleaders are stupid so they don’t deserve these cookies!

Millen: Oohh, cookies, don’t mind if I do!

Reilly: Millen, you idiot, why did you eat them after I’ve been saying that they’re poisonous!?

Millen: Kevin, I’ve taken so many kielbasas up my backside that I’ve developed an immunity to all poison.

Wolfley: I HAVE AN IMMUNITY TO POISON, TOO. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL THE COUSINS IN MY FAMILY HAVE INTER-MARRIED. IN FACT, IF YOU LOOK AT AN X-RAY TO SEE MY IMMUNITY, IT LOOKS LIKE A WALRUS WEARING A CLOWN NOSE.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by nose. A nose is one of many senses you have on your face. The human body has nine senses. One is sight, and there is foresight, hindsight and sidesight. There’s smell, which comes in handy unless you’re smelling poop. There’s taste, and some people have bad taste in furniture. There’s touch. That’s the fourth. The fifth is hearing. The sixth sense is seeing kids in movies. The seventh sense is mouth, which is when you put stuff in your mouth and eat it. The eighth sense is drinking, as in drinking a glass of water. The ninth sense is averting poison via inbreeding or kielbasa-stuffing, and I’ve done one or both of those, so I’ll eat the last cookie.

Reilly: Ugh, thanks for eating all of my cookies, a**holes! How am I going to poison Jack Prescott now?

Charles Davis’ Voice: Hey Kevin, let’s talk types of ice cream, Kevin. Let’s talk about vanilla, Kevin. Let’s try chocolate, Kevin. We’re not actually trying these types of ice cream, Kevin, because I’m recording this on a tape recorder, Kevin. I’m still alive, Kevin, so hopefully you can find me, Kevin, and save me from my kidnappers, Kevin, so I can rejoin you in the booth, Kevin, because taping these recordings is getting tedious, Kevin, and it’s impossible for me to know what topic you’re talking about because I’m not there, Kevin, so I can only guess what to talk about, Kevin. How about strawberry, Kevin? Hey, Kevin can you name an ice cream flavor we’ve already discussed, Kevin?

Reilly: Will someone shut that up!? Where is Charles Davis’ voice coming from!?

Charles Davis’ Voice: Sorry, Kevin, the answer is not pepperoni pizza, Kevin. The answer is vanilla, Kevin.

Reilly: SHUT UP, IDIOT! I DON’T CARE IF YOU’RE KIDNAPPED OR NOT! GO TO HELL! We’ll be back after this!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford’s dislocated middle finger didn’t affect him at all this past Sunday, outside of one throw to Eric Ebron in the flat. Stafford passed well, but Zach Zenner’s fumble inside the 5-yard line, as well as some pass-protection issues up front, ultimately betrayed him.

The protection issues can be solved if center Travis Swanson returns from a concussion. It was a huge disappointment that Swanson didn’t play last week, as rookie Graham Glasgow is a big downgrade. Now two weeks removed from sustaining his concussion, Swanson should be able to return to action, which will be very important considering how well David Irving is playing for the Cowboys. Irving terrorized Jameis Winston last week, but Detroit having Swanson on the field will help neutralize that.

It would help Ser Stafford’s cause if Theo Riddick is available as well, as it would give him another weapon to work with. Of course, most of Stafford’s action will come downfield to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. The Cowboys have issues in their secondary, as Winston torched them when he got hot in the third quarter. I expect Stafford to be more consistent, so he should be able to put together a strong performance.

DALLAS OFFENSE: People were unsure of Dak Prescott as well heading into Week 15, thanks to Prescott converting just two total third downs the previous couple of weeks. Prescott silenced his critics with a terrific performance against the Buccaneers, though Dallas was still sloppy, committing crucial penalties to disrupt three separate drives.

The Cowboys will have to be more disciplined against the Lions’ improved defense if Darius Slay can return from the hamstring injury he sustained in the first half of the New York game. It’s unclear what Slay’s status is, but the Lions will need him to cover Dez Bryant. He was certainly missed during the Giants’ sole positive drive in the second half when Eli Manning hit Odell Beckham Jr. on a third-and-10, and his absence will similarly be felt with Bryant on the field.

Of course, the Lions will have to defend the run first and foremost. Detroit isn’t necessarily bad versus the rush, but it’s not that good in that regard either. That could be an issue because of how incredible Ezekiel Elliott is. DeAndre Levy’s presence will help, but Elliott shouldn’t have much of a problem crossing the century mark.

RECAP: I don’t think this will surprise any of you, but this is my top play of the week. I love the Lions.

First of all, this spread is way out of control. Cowboys by seven? Really? I made this line 3.5! The Cowboys are a few points better than Detroit, but don’t really deserve any points for being hosts. Dallas has a poor home-field advantage. The stats may say that the Cowboys are 4-3 against the spread as hosts this year, but two covers (Eagles, Ravens) were extremely lucky. They’ve since regressed to the mean with their non-cover victories over the Redskins and Buccaneers. Thus, you can see where I got my number from, but even if the right spread for this game is -4 or -4.5, there’s still a ton of value with Detroit.

Also, the Lions are a very competitive team that doesn’t get blown out. I’ve mentioned this stat a couple of times, but the Lions have either led or trailed by one score in the fourth quarter in every game since their blowout loss to the Chiefs in London last year. Detroit will hang around and have a chance to cover this spread, even if down by double digits at some point.

By the way, this goes back to what I was saying earlier about great quarterbacks getting lots of points. You give me any terrific quarterback with more than a field goal, and I’ll take it almost every time. It didn’t work out for my December NFL Pick of the Month, but I feel like I got screwed in that game because of Zenner’s fumble. The Lions outgained the Giants in total yards and yards per play, by the way. It was just bad luck, and it doesn’t mean that the misfortune will continue.

Last thing: This will only apply if the Eagles beat the Giants, but if that happens, the Cowboys won’t have anything to play for because they’ll have clinched the No. 1 seed. Jason Garrett has already said he’ll play his starters in that scenario, but I think the Cowboys will have trouble matching the intensity of the Lions, who need to win to make sure they at least get a wild-card spot if they lose to the Packers next week. That’ll happen if the Buccaneers lose one of their next two games, or if the Packers lose this week to the Vikings.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to hold out for +7.5 (or maybe even +8), but I’m not sure if we’ll get that. The Lions are +7 -105 at CRIS and BetUS right now, so the favorable juice is a nice consolation prize, at least.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps have pounded the Lions in the wake of the Giants’ loss, since this game means nothing to Dallas. Pinnacle and BetUS have dropped this spread to +6.5. I expect other books to follow suit. CRIS and Bovada are still listing +7 -105, so I’ll lock that in for five units.

FRIDAY NOTES: The Lions are still available at Bovada at +7 -105 even though they’ve fallen to +6 or +6.5 elsewhere. I would lock it in while you can.

SATURDAY MORNING NOTES: The Cowboys will be playing their starters, according to Jerry Jones, but given that this game doesn’t mean much, Ezekiel Elliott’s workload could be limited.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Someone in the comment boards below criticized me for not just betting the Patriots and Cowboys blindly because, according to that person, that’s won casual bettors lots of money. That might be true for New England, but not for Dallas; the Cowboys haven’t covered the spread since the week before Thanksgiving. They’re a great team, don’t get me wrong, but they’ve been overrated recently as far as the spread is concerned. That’s the case tonight, as this line was made way too high. I loved the Lions for five units at +7, as they always keep their games close. The sharps bet this down to +6 or +6.5, which I still really like, but for 3-4 units or so.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Slight lean on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 64% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

The underdog is 70-39 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Lions are 7-15 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Cowboys are 15-25 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 11-23 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Cowboys 21, Lions 20
Lions +7 -105 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$525
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 42, Lions 21

Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
NY Giants at Philadelphia, Atlanta at Carolina, Tennessee at Jacksonville, San Diego at Cleveland, NY Jets at New England, Minnesota at Green Bay, Miami at Buffalo, Washington at Chicago

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Upon request, I’m posting teaser and moneyline plays earlier. I’ll try to get them up Thursday afternoon.

Teaser: Eagles +7.5, Packers -1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline: Bears +155 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Dolphins +170 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$85

Moneyline: Panthers +145 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Buccaneers +150 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Colts +160 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Lions +275 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)