NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LVI

Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) at Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Line: Rams by 4.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Feb. 13, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 21 Analysis: We hit both conference championship picks for a nice weekend.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Bengals, 3 units (win): This pick looked dead when the Chiefs went up 21-3. Kansas City looked invincible at that time, so I still can’t believe the Bengals managed to prevail.

49ers, 5 units (win): The 49ers have been very kind to us in the playoffs; we’ve made 11 units off of them, so I was sad to see them eliminated. Still, they got the cover, and that’s all that matters. As the old saying goes: Good teams win; great teams cover.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due very soon. My wife delivered our son, Conrad, five weeks ago! Thanks so much to anyone who sent a congratulatory e-mail or comment! Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:



I think Jrid losses brain cells weekly as well.

Here’s another post from this Jrid guy:



I think Jrid has the brain for assistant janitorial intern or CNN host. Not sure which one has the lower average IQ.

Here’s a guy living in the matrix:



I wonder if idiots like this think I just sit at my computer all day compiling info on the Fauci virus. I’m a doctor; I don’t need to compile any data. At any rate, imagine still living in fear of the Fauci virus after even the mainstream media admitted that they fudged the numbers this entire time. You’re really deep in the matrix if you think like Hungry4Pancakes.

Hungry4Pancakes is also too inept or lazy to scroll down to compile his own data:



Imagine being too incompetent or lethargic to scroll down just a bit so you don’t make yourself look like a fool. These are the sort of people living in the matrix.



If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader 2018 NFL Draft Re-Grades

Reader NFL Quarterback Bust Tiers

Reader 2021 NFL Draft Grades for Each Pick

Reader 2016 NFL Draft Re-Grades

Reader 2017 NFL Draft Re-Grades

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Hospital Visit for Childbirth, Part 1. It’s the first part of the series about the birth of my son!

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles, home of the Super Game! This afternoon, the St. Louis Rams take on the Cincinnati Reds. Guys, there are lots of great matchups to break down like Jared Goff going up against Aaron Donald, and Joe Bernard versus Joe Mixon. But there are more dire matters at hand. My New Daddy is in danger of being fired for making fart jokes about Roger Goodell. It seems as though Roger Goodell is overly sensitive about being called a farter, which has led some people to believe that he is a farter in the closet, but it’s not my place to speculate. Emmitt, do you have any ideas about how we can keep New Daddy Jay Cutler from being fired?

Emmitt: VIP, to be honestly with you, John Cutler not really do much on this telecast. He only play on his phone, sleep, or eat Cheeto and Dorito. He probably do not even knowed who play on these game.

Reilly: First of all, Emmitt, thank you for calling me VIP. You’ve been calling me Korean names all year, but I’m glad you finally recognize me as VIP. Second, New Daddy totally knows who’s playing in this game. My New Daddy is a former NFL player, so that means he knows more about football than anyone else. Right, New Daddy? Who’s playing in this game?

Jay Cutler: Did someone say something about Cheetos and Doritos? I’ll take two bags of each.

Reilly: New Daddy, you have to take this seriously, or they’re going to fire you! Guys, can someone help coach up New Daddy by telling him who’s playing in this game?

Tollefson: Face it, Kevin, he’s a lost cause. Sort of like one female slave I had in my cellar. When cooking and cleaning naked for me, she would often shine the marble countertops with wood cleaner and the wooden floors with Windex. No matter how many times I told her and whipped her, she just didn’t get it. So, I put an end to her by feeding her to my pet wolves.

Reilly: Tolly, I wish I had pet wolves so I could feed my enemies to them. Charles Davis would be first. But Mother said I didn’t do a good enough job with the chores around the house, so I can’t get a pet until next year. Anyway, I brought in the big guns to help New Daddy keep his job. My wise Latina Supreme Court justice will help!

Sonia Sotomayor: Jay Cutler has been part of this broadcasting team for 716 years, so it is my opinion that he should remain employed henceforth.

Reilly: That’s your argument? New Daddy has been working here for like five years; not 716 years! Where do you get these numbers from? Guys, I’m serious, I’ll sell this Nick Foles bobblehead in order to keep New Daddy on the job. Wait a second, this isn’t a Nick Foles bobblehead! It’s Adam Schefter!

Schefter: That’s right, Kevin, I had morphed into a door knob to protect myself against the deadly Omnicron variant two weeks ago, but I realized that it’s safer to transform into a bobblehead doll because that means I will be 99.8-percent protected by the deadly Omnicron variant. Kevin, I have one last piece of breaking news. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah told me it’s OK to report that Roger Goodell will be here within minutes to fire your New Daddy. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Nooooo! Someone, please help me save New Daddy! Totally legitimate Mr. President who got 81 million votes because the media said so, please save New Daddy!

Joe Biden: Not to brag, but New Daddy is what the ladies call me these days. When I went into the local brothel and saw all the women there, I told them to call me New Daddy, and then I sniffed all their hairs. Suzy was playing with blocks, so I sniffed her hair first. Then, Sarah was playing with the choo-choo train, so I sniffed her hair next. Then I saw Lauren eating glue, so I sniffed her hair after that. I sniffed all the hair. It reminds me of when I worked in the barber shop when I was a young man growing up in Scranton, Delaware. Scranton Delaware Joe New Daddy they used to call me. There were lots of minorities at the barber shop. It was like a jungle. I told them all, if you don’t vote for me, then you ain’t minorities like I am.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe says he worked at the barber shop, but I have his resume here, and it says he never worked at the barber shop, only as Vice President, where he was a total disaster, and also in the Senate, where he was an even greater disaster, believe me, and he was probably a total disaster and a total disgrace as a lifeguard. Sleepy, Creepy Joe probably let lots of kids drown, believe me, he let so many kids drown, no one has ever seen anything like it, believe me, I know all about lifeguarding, no one knows more about lifeguarding than me. No one ever drowned in the pool when I was a lifeguard, and if I were a lifeguard for 716 years, no one would ever drown, believe me, everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU’RE LETTING OLD WOUNDS RESURFACE. I WAS THE LIFEGUARD AT THE ORANGE SODA SWIMMING POOL ON MY HOME PLANET, AND ONE DAY, THREE PAPER CLIPS WITH SAUCE ON THE BALLS ALL DROWNED AT THE SAME TIME.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Roger Goodell is here, and he’s going to fire New Daddy!

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-mans, I am the hu-manoid whose designation is Roger Goodell, and I am very hu-man just like the rest of you. Because I am hu-man, I can consume M&Ms for – generating random meal – brunch. I have consumed – generating random number – 3,645.46 M&Ms for – brunch – today, which makes me hu-man like the rest of you. As a hu-man like everyone here, I am deeply offended by being called farter. Therefore, it is my very hu-man decision that the hu-manoid known as Jay Cutler is fir-

Kevin Reilly’s Mom: Wait a second! Wait just one second! Before you continue, Mr. Commishy-pants, I need to mention two things. First, Kevin, poopy-kins, you forgot your lunch, which includes a peanut butter-and-jelly sandwich with the crusts cut off because they’re too sensitive for my poopy-kins’ stomach! Poopy-kins, if I didn’t bring you your lunch, you would’ve starved to death! And second, New Husband Jay Cutler cannot be fired because he will soon be the father of my new baby. I’m pregnant! Are you excited, New Husband Jay Cutler?

Jay Cutler: Who are you, again?

Kevin Reilly’s Mom: I’m your wife, Kevin Reilly’s mom! You’re going to be a daddy, and not just to Kevin poopy-kins!

Jay Cutler: Oh man, I hope I get those Doritos and Cheetos soon.

Reilly: Wait a second! I can’t stop being an only child! That means I’ll have to share my Nick Foles bobblehead collection with New Brother!

Kevin Reilly’s Mom: Yes, you must! If you don’t, no more macaroni and cheese for dinner!

Reilly: NOOOOOO BUT I LOOOOVE MAAC AND CHEEEESE…

Tollefeson: Hold on, how does this make any sense? Isn’t Kevin Reilly’s mom in her late 80s? How is she pregnant?

Kevin Reilly’s Mom: It’s a miracle! And this means New Husband Jay Cutler can’t be fired because he needs to make money to support my two children now.

Goodell: The hu-manoid whose designation is Roger Goodell is programmed to feign sympathy toward women and minorities in order to win the favor of the public, so the hu-manoid whose designation is Roger Goodell has deemed that the hu-manoid whose designation is Jay Cutler shall keep his position.

Reilly: Yay! New Daddy is keeping his job! Aren’t you happy, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Wait, what just happened?

Charles Davis: Roger Goodell, sounds like you’re virtue signaling, Roger Goodell. Pretending to care about women and minorities is one type of virtue signal, Roger Goodell. Changing a team name even though the group you’re trying to defend supports the team name is another type of virtue signal, Roger Goodell. Making sure a person of a particular race or color is given a job by a total legitimate president who got 81 million votes according to the media is another type of virtue signal, Roger Goodell. Giving an extremely small percentage of profits to a charity when you dedicate a whole month to a cause and make players wear a certain color is another type of virtue signal, Roger Goodell. Hey Roger Goodell, how about penning a letter complaining about minority coaches not being fired despite not really doing anyting about it, Roger Goodell? That’s a virtue signal, Roger Goodell. Roger Goodell, what about setting up a meeting with Al Sharpton with no owners, Roger Goodell? Is that not a virtue signal, too, Roger Goodell?

Goodell: Error. Error. Can’t process. Shutting down.

Reilly: Wow, I can’t believe you and I are on the same side, Charles Davis. I never thought that would ever happen. I can’t wait until next year when I’m threatening to kill you again! We’ll be back after this!

We’re going to have “Roger Goodell is a Farter” t-shirts available in the merch store soon, by the way!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The main narrative I’ve heard from people regarding this game is that Aaron Donald is going to dominate the line of scrimmage and sack Joe Burrow numerous times. I don’t blame the masses for thinking this way because Burrow took nine sacks against the Titans. If Tennessee could sack Burrow on nine occasions, just imagine how often the Rams will get to him!

The problem with this analysis is that the Rams don’t produce much pressure on the quarterback. It sounds odd to write that, given the presence of Donald and Von Miller, but it’s true. The Rams are in the middle of the pack regarding pressure rate, ranking 17th in that category. The Titans, by contrast, are in the top 10. In fact, the Rams need to blitz often in order to get after the quarterback. They’re 11th in blitz rate, compared to the Titans, who are 28th. This is significant because Burrow devours the blitz. I loved the Bengals in the AFC Championship because the Chiefs, like the Rams, blitz frequently. Burrow had a great second half as a consequence, and I believe that we will see a repeat of that in this game.

The Rams have to blitz often because they have problems in their secondary. Excluding Jalen Ramsey, the Rams have major issues at cornerback. Safety, meanwhile, is a greater problem because Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp have both been injured. There’s a good chance Rapp returns for the Super Bowl, but Fuller’s absence is enormous. He’s one of the best safeties in the NFL, and he’ll continue to be missed. With all of these holes in the secondary, Cincinnati’s exceptional receivers will run circles around the defensive backs.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams’ scoring attack is way more reliant on the running game than the Bengals’ style, which is one of the reasons why they struggled against the 49ers so much this year. San Francisco’s elite ground defense limited what Los Angeles could do on this side of the ball, resulting in outputs of 10, 24 and 20 points.

The Bengals are not as good against the run as the 49ers happen to be. In fact, they’re rather weak against it; they were allowing what seemed like seven yards every time Jerick McKinnon handled the ball in the AFC Championship, which made it puzzling as to why Andy Reid completely abandoned the run late in the game. The Rams won’t do that, opting instead to pound the ball with Cam Akers and Sony Michel.

Cincinnati happens to be much better against the pass. Its defense gets to the quarterback exceptionally well, as Patrick Mahomes discovered in the AFC Championship. However, the Rams have a stellar offensive line that will keep Matthew Stafford safe. The Bengals are great at erasing one receiver because of Chidobe Awuzie’s outstanding coverage, but Stafford has so many weapons at his disposal beyond just Cooper Kupp. This includes Tyler Higbee, who will be able to take advantage of a defense that doesn’t cover tight ends well.

RECAP: I don’t think there’s a four-point disparity between these teams, even when factoring the Rams’ slight home-field advantage. I have these teams right next to each other in my NFL Power Rankings, so I believe this line should be Los Angeles -1, maybe -1.5 at the most. The computer model has this at the former number. DVOA is less kind to the Bengals – they project a seven-point spread – but they’ve been down on Cincinnati this entire year. It’s safe to say that DVOA is wrong about the Bengals.

Furthermore, I like how the Bengals match up with the Rams. Burrow, as mentioned, eats up the blitz, and the Rams bring extra pass rushers often. The narrative from most entering this game is that Cincinnati won’t be able to block Donald at all, but given Los Angeles’ relatively low pressure rate, that shouldn’t be much of a factor. I love fading popular, but incorrect narratives.

With those two items in mind, I like the Bengals quite a bit. We’re getting the ultimate key number of three with Cincinnati, as well as a minor one (4). It sucks that we’re not getting six and seven, but given that these teams are close to equal, this should be a tight game, meaning that taking the points will likely be the winning line. The most likely results of this game are either team winning by a field goal, and we get both sides with Cincinnati 4.

I’m going to put anywhere between three and five units on the Bengals. Also, on a personal note, I have a 15/1 ticket on the Rams to win the Super Bowl on my NFL Betting Props page. I plan on hedging with the Cincinnati moneyline, though I could middle with the Bengals 4.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time 13 years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No 185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at 185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There was nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence.

Hopefully we can find a sure winner again. In the meantime, here are some props I like:

1. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -125 (BetUS): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 15 of the 55 Super Bowls.

2. Rams by 1-6 Points; Bengals by 1-6 Points – 315, 420 (BetUS): I believe this game will be close, so I like the odds that one of these will hit.

3. Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -125 (BetUS): In the previous 35 Super Bowls, the second half is 23-11-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at -125.

4. MVP: Tee Higgins – 50/1 (Bovada): Higgins is a great value at 50/1. Jalen Ramsey typically doesn’t shadow, but he’ll do it sometimes. If he decides to follow Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins could have a huge game. If he does, he may be named MVP.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A few things: First, this line hasn’t really moved. I’m hoping to get 6 at some point for -125 vig maximum. Six is such a key number because of overtime and the new tendency to go for two after scoring a touchdown when down 14. Second, I’m going to bet Joe Burrow to win MVP at 235 as a safe wager in conjuction to the Tee Higgins MVP longshot call. Third, per Jacob Camenker’s suggestions (see video below), I’m going to bet Burrow over 277.5 passing yards because the Rams are stout against the run and have a pass-funnel defense, and also Stafford 750 as an anytime scorer because he might get a touchdown sneak. Fourth, I’m going to bet on the Bengals moneyline to hedge my Rams 15/1 ticket. I don’t know how many units that’ll be yet. And finally, we have Roger Goodell is a Farter t-shirts available! Just click the image:



You probably won’t get it by the Super Bowl, but you’ll be the coolest person around wearing this great t-shirt!

SATURDAY NOTES: I guess we’re not getting any 6s. This line is 4 across the board, with the 4.5s gone as a result of what appears to be sharp action on Cincinnati. You can buy up to 6 -138 at Bookmaker, but the vig is too high for that. I’ll have an official unit count on the side and moneyline tomorrow afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Bengals. Everyone is talking about the Rams’ defensive line, but Los Angeles was just 17th in pressure rate this year. The Rams need to blitz, and Joe Burrow is great against the blitz. I would normally just bet five units on the 4.5 (BetUS), but my goal is to hedge the 15/1 ticket I have on the Rams to win the Super Bowl (two units winning 30). So, I’m going to bet on the Bengals 6 -129 at Bookmaker for six units so I can middle. I’m going to wager three units on the Bengals moneyline, so if Cincinnati wins outright, I’ll win about 11.5 units. Oh, and the sharps are on the Rams, but that’s not a surprise because the sharps have been fading the Bengals all year.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread (Estimated): Rams -3.5.
Computer Model: Rams -1.
DVOA Spread: Rams -7.




The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 62% (410,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -4.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Super Bowl LVI NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Rams 24
Bengals 6 -129 (6 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; $600
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 188 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$300
Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game: No -125 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$125
Rams by 1-6 Points 315 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; $315
Bengals by 1-6 Points 420 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$100
Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -125 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$125
MVP: Tee Higgins: 50/1 (0.5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$50
MVP: Joe Burrow: 235 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$100
Joe Burrow Over 277.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$115
Matthew Stafford anytime touchdown scorer 750 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Rams 23, Bengals 20

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2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)