NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2017): 6-10 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2017): 8-8 (+$350)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2017): 7-8-1 (-$460)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2017): 13-2-1 (+$1,500)

NFL Picks (2017): 113-122-9 (-$3,820)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 31, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

Cincinnati Bengals (6-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)
Line: Ravens by 8. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -11.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -6.5.
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco has improved since the bye week, as he appears to be much healthier now than he was earlier in the year. However, he seemingly regressed against the Colts, failing to torch one of the NFL’s worst secondaries. Indianapolis was able to hang around and nearly prevail as a result.

Flacco’s ability to rebound will depend on whether or not Vontaze Burfict plays in this game. Burfict returned from his concussion against the Lions, only to hurt his shoulder in the third quarter. Burfict is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and Cincinnati’s defense is night and day when he’s in the lineup. Alex Collins won’t be able to run the ball effectively if Burfict is on the field, and the converse is true if Burfict is out again. This will determine whether or not Flacco is constantly stuck in third-and-long situations or not.

Burfict wasn’t the only Bengal who returned from injury last week. Dre Kirkpatrick came back as well to help stop Detroit’s passing attack. The pressure helped a lot, too. The Lions were missing three offensive linemen, so the Bengals were able to place heavy heat on Matthew Stafford. Baltimore’s front is mostly intact, so that will obviously allow Flacco to combat what will be a very tough defense if Burfict suits up.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton tried his hardest to lose last week, throwing numerous errant passes in the opening half. However, he settled down following halftime, and he was able to take the lead eventually because the Lions weren’t doing anything offensively.

Dalton will have a much more difficult time against the Ravens, who pitched a shutout against these very same Bengals in the first week of the season. Baltimore completely overwhelmed Dalton in the pocket, as the Cincinnati quarterback had no chance behind his porous offensive line.

Nothing has changed in that regard, as the Bengals still block extremely poorly. However, Jimmy Smith isn’t around this time to blanket A.J. Green, so I highly doubt the Ravens will keep Cincinnati completely off the board again.

RECAP: This spread seems like it’s too high. I made this Baltimore -6.5, yet the host is favored by double digits.

I really like the Bengals, but only if Burfict plays. Burfict is way too important to Cincinnati’s defense, so he needs to be in the lineup for me to bet the underdog. The Burfict-led Bengals will be able to limit the Ravens enough to keep this game close and cover as a result.

Now, you might point out that the Ravens need to win this game to make the playoffs. And to that, I ask, “So what?” As a wise man once said, if a team needs to win, they’re probably not that good to begin with. Teams that need to prevail in Week 17 often choke, and Baltimore could certainly do that after struggling to put away Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the Bengals will be hungry to avenge their humiliating shutout home loss in the season opener.

Like I said, however, this comes down to Burfict. If he’s out, I won’t touch this game, and I may actually switch my pick to Baltimore. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Vontaze Burfict has yet to practice this week, which bodes poorly for Cincinnati’s chances. I may switch to Baltimore if Burfict is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I’d change my pick if Vontaze Burfict were out, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. However, this line is just too high for me to bet Baltimore.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line keeps dropping because the sharps are pounding the Bengals. I may bet the Ravens if we get a great number on them (hoping for -7, though that’s unlikely). This line is -8.5 in some books right now, but the amount of pro money on Cincinnati is overwhelming.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is now -8 in multiple books. I think that’s OK to put a unit on them, but I’m not going to. I came close to it, but I was really hoping for -7.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

This is a big revenge game for the Bengals, who would love to play spoiler.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

The Bengals are a sharp dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 65% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Bengals have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Marvin Lewis is 15-9 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Bengals are 38-23 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Ravens are 6-13 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -10.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 13
Ravens -8 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 40 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bengals 31, Ravens 27

Buffalo Bills (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (6-9)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: This is likely Tyrod Taylor’s final game with the Bills, unless they make the playoffs. If he plays like he did this past Sunday, it will certainly be his final game.

Taylor did some nice things against the Patriots, but he made too many mistakes. He missed several passes, and he drifted too far back in the pocket on numerous occasions. The thing is, he did this against a New England defense that doesn’t bring a pass rush. The Dolphins don’t do many things well on this side of the ball, but they can generate heat with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake. Both have terrific matchups in this contest, and they should be able to pressure Taylor frequently.

That said, the Bills can still move the chains by exploiting the Dolphins’ many weaknesses. Miami can’t stop the run, so LeSean McCoy figures to have a big game as a rusher. He’ll also perform incredibly well as a receiver out of the backfield, as the atrocious Dolphin linebackers can’t cover. Charles Clay should also have a strong performance for that reason. Meanwhile, the Dolphins don’t have anyone to cover Kelvin Benjamin either.

MIAMI OFFENSE: While Taylor will play elsewhere next season, Jay Cutler will almost certainly be in the FOX broadcast booth, as it’s unlikely that anyone will want his services after how performed this year. I look forward to hearing “I dunno” and “I don’t care” from him on TV in 2018. It’s going to be awesome.

Cutler’s farewell party won’t be a pleasant one. He has to battle a very tough secondary that should be able to limit his receivers. Meanwhile, his atrocious offensive line won’t be able to block Jerry Hughes, Eddie Yarbrough or Kyle Williams.

I do think the Dolphins will move the chains, however, and they’ll do so via their ground attack. Kenyan Drake has looked good since he’s gotten the opportunity to handle the full workload, and Buffalo hasn’t been able to stop the run since trading Marcell Dareus.

RECAP: What I said about the Ravens also applies to the Bills. Teams that need to win aren’t very good to begin with. Why should the Bills be trusted as three-point road favorites if they aren’t very good? This is too much pressure for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in nearly 20 years.

That said, I have no desire to bet the Dolphins either. In fact, I’m actually picking Buffalo, and it’s because of one reason: Jay Cutler. The man is poisonous from a betting perspective. Excluding Monday Night Football, he’s 47-78 against the spread in his career. I’m going to really miss him next year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has moved this spread to +2.5. I would still take the Bills if I had to, but that’s just a blind fade of Jay Cutler.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Dolphins are going to be missing Laremy Tunsil, which seems like a horrible situation for them. I would take the Bills if this were a low-pressure game for this, but I could easily see them choking this away. That’s what the sharps believe, as they’re betting Miami.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sideline reporter on NFL Network said the Dolphins could play David Fales at quarterback at some point today! Yeah, so Miami is not bettable, but neither is Buffalo if the Miami starters play the entire game. The sharps were on Miami +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no strong opinion on this game. I’d take the Bills as a fade of Jay Cutler and possibly David Fales, but I could see Buffalo choking.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins would love to play spoiler and avenge a recent loss to the Bills.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Slight lean on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 63% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Underdog is 80-52 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 132 games.

Jay Cutler is 47-78 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Bills are 19-10 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Dolphins are 17-4 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 21 instances.

Opening Line: Biills -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Dolphins 13
Bills -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 22, Dolphins 16

Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6)
Line: Falcons by 5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has been off the entire year, and that has been very apparent the past couple of games. He struggled to put the Buccaneers away in a Monday night affair, missing numerous throws and failing to see open receivers downfield. And it’s not like he had a difficult matchup; the Buccaneers were missing their top two defensive players, including star linebacker Lavonte David.

The Panthers will have one of their talented linebackers, Thomas Davis, back from his one-game suspension. He’ll help put the clamps on Ryan, though the primary concern with Carolina’s defense happens to be the secondary. It’s awful, as it couldn’t stop Jameis Winston this past week. Ryan should do well on paper, but that just hasn’t translated to the field this year like it did in 2016. Something is just way off with him.

Ryan will need to be at his best because the Panthers don’t surrender anything on the ground. Except for the Saints, only one team has gained more than 100 rushing yards against them all year, and that was a Miami squad that had a fluky 68-yard run when Carolina was way ahead. Devonta Freeman was limited to just 46 yards in the first meeting between these teams.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The other reason the Falcons failed to beat the Buccaneers by a wide margin in Week 15 was because they couldn’t pressure Jameis Winston very often. The Buccaneers have a poor offensive line, so this was quite the disappointment.

Atlanta’s pass rush has been inconsistent this year, and I don’t know if it’ll have much success getting to Cam Newton. The Carolina signal-caller didn’t have the best performance against Atlanta’s solid secondary in the first meeting, thanks to some missed throws, but he tortured the Falcons as a runner, scrambling nine times for 86 rushing yards as he willed his team to victory.

The Falcons actually happen to be strong against the run, surrendering more than 100 yards on the ground just once since Week 7. They’ll do well against Christian McCaffrey (as a runner) and Jonathan Stewart, but defending Newton as a scrambler is a different story, as Atlanta didn’t have an answer for him back in Week 9.

RECAP: I don’t understand why this spread is above a field goal. I even thought -3 would be too high, as I made this Atlanta -2. At first glance, there’s no way in hell the Falcons are better than the Panthers, so why do they deserve the extra point? It shouldn’t be because they need to win this game. Again, teams that need to win aren’t very good to begin with. Plus, it’s not like the Panthers are going roll over and let Atlanta prevail. If they win, and the Saints and Vikings lose, they’ll have the No. 2 seed!

Then, I got to thinking about it, and I just don’t know about the Panthers. I get the feeling that like the Falcons, they could be overrated as well. They should’ve lost to the Buccaneers last week. They were a Geronimo Allison fumble away from potentially losing to the Packers at home. They were blown out in New Orleans. They beat the Vikings, but Minnesota was missing three offensive linemen in that game. I get the feeling that with so much hype, the Panthers could be a public dog in this game, and I don’t want to bet into that.

That said, the Falcons haven’t done enough to warrant a line of -4 over a competent foe. I’m going to pick the Panthers, but I’ll pass on betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t have anything new to say on this game. There’s a tiny bit of sharp money on Carolina, but not enough to move this line just yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have jumped on the Panthers, dropping this line to +3.5. Perhaps they’re looking at the injury to Alex Mack. Atlanta’s All-Pro center missed practice Thursday and Friday, and he’s considered questionable. If he’s ruled out, I may put a unit or two on Carolina.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread keeps moving back and forth between +3.5 and +4. We’re still waiting on Alex Mack news. Perhaps the movement to -4 means Mack will play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounded the Falcons on Sunday afternoon, and as you can probably guess, Alex Mack is active. I actually regret picking Carolina; I think this could be an Atlanta blowout victory, but I don’t want to change my selection so late.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 52% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Falcons are 23-11 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 34 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Falcons 22, Panthers 20
Panthers +5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 22, Panthers 10

New Orleans Saints (11-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -6.
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have a poor track record on the road, especially when favored. If you look below, you’ll see that they have an atrocious 7-13 ATS mark when laying four or more points as visitors. Things have been different this year, however, because the Saints no longer just rely on Drew Brees’ heroics. They have a solid defense and tremendous running game, both of which are portable. As a result, they’re 3-2 on the road following the opener, with one of the losses occurring because Alvin Kamara got hurt. The Saints have won in Carolina and Buffalo, winning both contests by double digits.

Speaking of Kamara, he was tremendous against the Buccaneers in the first meeting, catching seven passes for 86 receiving yards. He and Mark Ingram combined for 145 total rushing yards, and there’s no reason to think that they won’t dominate again. Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David were both present for that initial game, so it’s not like they were missing like they were for Atlanta.

Meanwhile, if Brees has to throw the ball downfield, he should be pretty successful. The Buccaneers have an atrocious secondary that will need to be upgraded this offseason. Brees will easily be able to exploit it.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Saints of years’ past probably would’ve lost a high-scoring shootout in Tampa, but the Saints’ much-improved defense will give the Buccaneers some major problems.

The biggest mismatches are up front. The Buccaneers have lost their two top offensive linemen to injuries, so Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Rankins will be able to generate plenty of heat on Jameis Winston. The line will also clamp down against the run. If the Saints could limit Devonta Freeman, I imagine that they won’t have much of an issue with Peyton Barber.

Meanwhile, Winston’s targets are limited, as DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard are both out. Mike Evans is playing better now, but he’ll be matched up with prolific rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Evans could rack up some more offensive pass interferences to add to his total, while rookie Chris Godwin figures to have trouble with No. 2 corner Ken Crawley.

RECAP: This is another instance in which a Week 17 team is going to have trouble concentrating because of the impending doom of their head coach. Dirk Koetter is as good as gone, so I think we’re going to get a low-effort performance from the Buccaneers, especially after how they blew last week’s potential victory.

I like the Saints quite a bit here, as they should be able to win this game quite easily. Again, they project as a much better road team this year because they can bring their defense and running game, so I would ignore all previous stats pertaining to their road struggles.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have moved this line down to +7, which is perfectly fine by me. The Saints are more appealing at -7, and I may add another unit on them, especially if -6.5s begin appearing.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m dropping this to zero units. The premise behind this wager was that the Buccaneers would be unfocused with Dirk Koetter set to be fired, but it turns out Koetter is going to be keeping his job for some reason! Also, it doesn’t help that Terron Armstead will be out, so that could hurt New Orleans’ offense. I don’t know which factor the sharps were considering – or if it was something else – because they bet the Buccaneers heavily on Friday and Saturday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This is still a non-bet with Dirk Koetter inexplicably keeping his job. The sharps stopped betting the Buccaneers at +5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me here. The sharps are on Buccaneers +6, but nothing less than that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

A decent lean on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 67% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Drew Brees is 43-29 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Saints are 7-13 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Saints -7.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 13
Saints -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 49 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Buccaneers 31, Saints 24

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (8-7)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1.5 (JAX starters) or Titans -8 (JAX scrubs).
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

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RESTED STARTERS: In case you’re wondering why the Titans are favored by six, it’s because the Jaguars are locked into the No. 3 seed and are certain to be sitting their starters. They would be foolish to play anyone of significance. Not only would they be risking injury, but they would be exposing their game plans as well; if the Titans were to beat the Jaguars, there’s a good chance this could be the first-round matchup. The Jaguars would be better off hiding whatever they have cooked up for Tennessee.

RECAP: The Titans are another team that needs to win, and teams that need to win aren’t very good. All of this is true. However, Tennessee isn’t an auto-fade because this situation is different. Whereas the teams I mentioned earlier in this dynamic – Ravens, Bills, Falcons – were battling opponents with something to play for (playoff positioning, pride, etc.), the Titans will be going up against a Jacksonville squad using its backups and a vanilla game plan. It’ll be Chad Henne at the helm, so that bodes well for Tennessee’s chances of winning this game.

That said, it’s still difficult to trust the Titans to cover a six-point spread. The Jaguar backups will be playing hard, and this Tennessee squad barely beat the Browns, Bengals, Colts and Tom Savage-led Texans. The Titans are very poorly coached, and Marcus Mariota is very inconsistent. If this spread were -3, I’d consider betting Tennessee, but I’m not going to do that at -6.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped from -6 to -3 because of Doug Marrone’s comments about playing his starters. I could see Blake Bortles playing, but will he finish? The Titans seem like the right side to me, but this is a poorly coached team that could barely get by the Browns.

SATURDAY NOTES: Doug Marrone has said that his starters will play, but for how long? The Jaguars are unbettable for that reason, but the Titans aren’t appealing either because they are poorly coached and could blow this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: In what could be the dumbest coaching decision in the 21st century, the Jaguars plan on playing their starters, and it sounds like they’ll go for 60 minutes. I would still take the Titans at anything less than -3, but if you’re in a pool where the number is higher, I would pick Jacksonville.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s still no telling how long the Jacksonville starters will play, so I would not bet this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Jaguars are locked into the No. 3 seed and could sit their starters.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Jaguars are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 56% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: These teams have split meetings the past eight years.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 12
Titans -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 15, Jaguars 10

Oakland Raiders (6-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -5.
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The fact that the Chargers scored only 14 points against the Jets has to be very worrisome. A big part of that was the offensive line. They didn’t have left tackle Russell Okung available, and they had trouble blocking as a consequence.

We’ll see what happens with Okung, but the Raiders currently seem to have a big edge in the trenches. If Okung is out, both Khalil Mack and Bruce Irving will be able to attack the Chargers’ weak tackles and put lots of heat on Rivers. The Raiders have a poor back seven that can be exploited with Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates, but the offense won’t be able to generate consistent drives if the pass protection can’t hold up.

Meanwhile, the Chargers may not have Melvin Gordon, who was seen in a walking boot following Sunday’s victory. The Raiders have been better against the run ever since acquiring NaVorro Bowman, so the Chargers won’t have any sort of threat on the ground if Gordon is missing.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: If you took the logos off the helmets and had both teams wear the same color in the Eagles-Raiders game, I don’t think you could’ve figured out which quarterback was Derek Carr. It’s been startling how much Carr has regressed now that he doesn’t have elite blocking. He has transformed into a checkdown, turnover-prone machine.

The Raiders have a strong interior offensive line, but their tackles are weak because of Donald Penn’s injury. That’s bad news heading into this contest, given that Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will be lining up against the two scrub tackles. Carr will be throwing more checkdowns than ever in this game.

That said, Oakland could have some success moving the chains, doing so on the ground. The Chargers have been much worse versus the run when they haven’t had their top linebacker, Denzel Perryman, in the lineup. Corey Liuget’s injury has also been a factor. It’s unclear if they’ll be able to play in this game, but if they’re both out again, that will be harmful to San Angeles’ outlook.

RECAP: The Chargers were -7 on the advance line, yet they went up to -9 on the opener (bet down to -8 by the sharps) because they need to win this game. Once again, teams that need to win aren’t very good to begin with.

I think we’ve seen enough evidence of that with the Chargers. They have some great talent in places, but they also have some major weaknesses. They were blown out by the Chiefs and barely snuck by the Jets. They had a winning streak in the middle of the season, but those victories were against bad or beat-up teams.

The Raiders aren’t good, and they’re not healthy, but they’re not bad, and they certainly shouldn’t be getting so many points in this matchup. They almost beat the Chargers the first time they played them this year, and that was with Carr playing injured in his first game back.

We’ll see what happens with the injury report, but the Chargers have some major blocking issues that’ll make it difficult for them to score enough to cover this spread. This should be close, much like all Chargers-Raiders games. In fact, the last Chargers-Raiders matchup decided by more than eight points was back in 2013, which was prior to the Carr era. Matt McGloin started that game.

As you can tell, I love the Raiders. In fact, they’re my top play this week. This spread is too high, and the Chargers are in a great spot to choke. This is Oakland’s Super Bowl, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if it pulled the outright upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line moved to +7.5 because of sharp money on the Raiders, but then it rose back to +8. Eight isn’t a significant number, so if this line drops to +7.5, it won’t be such a big deal.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish the Raiders would’ve had better news on the injury report, but Melvin Gordon, Russell Okung, Denzel Perryman and Corey Liuget are all questionable after putting together limited practices all week. I still think this line is too high, but I wish the Raiders would have a better advantage. Perhaps we’ll get good news prior to kickoff. At any rate, the sharps have been all over the Raiders, which would explain why this line is now +7 -115.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m dropping this to four units in the wake of the Jon Gruden rumors. I think there’s a chance the Raiders could be distracted. Plus, the spread is now +7 -120, so we lost some value for sure.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Chargers. This spread is now +6.5 in many books, though it’s still +7 -115 at Bovada. I’m sticking with four units on Oakland, as the Chargers will be missing Corey Liuget.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

All the pressure is on the Chargers to prevail in this must-win.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

There’s lots of sharp action on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 66% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Raiders have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (Raiders 11-6 ATS last 17).

Derek Carr is 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since 2015.

Raiders are 3-10 ATS in Week 17 since 2003.

Jack Del Rio is 2-8 ATS in Week 17 games.

Jack Del Rio is 1-5 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chargers 20, Raiders 17
Raiders +7 -115 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$460
Under 43 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chargers 30, Raiders 10

Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-6)
Line: Seahawks by 9. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -7.5.
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the Walnut Grove Township Meeting

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks snuck by the Cowboys without their offense doing much. In fact, their offense averaged just 2.5 yards per play, which is a truly staggering figure. I can’t remember ever seeing a team win with such a low YPP number. In fact, I can’t even remember a team losing with a 2.X YPP! Most losing teams average four or so yards per play unless it’s a shootout. The second-worst YPP from Week 16 was Philadelphia’s 3.5 on Monday night.

I suppose this is the sort of thing that happens when a team has a horrible offensive line and no running game to speak of and has to battle a solid defense. The thing is, Arizona’s defense is even better than Dallas’. They have the pass rush to easily blow by Seattle’s offensive line, including Duane Brown, who has been struggling lately. Robert Quinn abused him two weeks ago, and Chandler Jones will treat him similarly. Meanwhile, Patrick Peterson and the rest of Arizona’s secondary will be able to lock down Russell Wilson’s weapons.

I still expect Wilson to make enough plays to put his team in position to win. He’s a wizard in the pocket, and he always finds a way to make something out of nothing. He’ll have a whole bunch of nothing in this contest.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: As bad as Seattle’s offensive line is, Arizona’s actually happens to be worse. The Cardinals are missing both tackles, as well as their top guard. Michael Bennett, Frank Clark and Sheldon Richardson will put tons of pressure on Drew Stanton.

Stanton, unlike Blaine Gabbert, is actually a viable NFL quarterback. He’s just a decent backup, but that’s better than Gabbert, who should not be in the NFL. Stanton will be able to complete some quick passes to Larry Fitzgerald again, as Seattle has its documented issues in the secondary.

The Seahawks really struggled defensively recently against the Jaguars and Rams, but they were missing Bobby Wagner for the majority of those games. He returned last week and was his usual, dominant self, helping to defeat Dallas. He’ll cause some major problems for the Cardinals, who won’t be able to run the ball whatsoever.

RECAP: Have I said it enough? Teams that need to win aren’t good to begin with? Yeah? OK, let’s move on.

This is a tricky spot for the Seahawks. There’s a lot of pressure on them to prevail, and I don’t think it’s a given that they will. The Cardinals have a tough defense, and Stanton is not incompetent like Gabbert is. He’ll be able to have Arizona in position to prevail.

I like the Cardinals to cover this spread, but not enough to bet them. Their offensive line is just so bad that things could really break down for them. I could see Seattle winning this by the score of 13-3 or 17-6, for example.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nine is even less significant than eight, so I don’t really care that the Cardinals are now +9.5. I might have some interest in this game at +10, if the line ever gets there in viable books. Pinnacle currently has this listed at +10 -117, but people in America don’t have access to that.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I’m going to put a unit on the Cardinals. This spread is just too high. The Seahawks are favored by nine, but can they even score nine points? Also, Earl Thomas missed practice Thursday and Friday, so that’s something to keep an eye on prior to kickoff. If Thomas is out, I’ll increase my wager a bit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on the Earl Thomas news. I’ll have an update around 3:30-3:45 p.m. Eastern, so check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Earl Thomas is playing, unfortunately, so I don’t want to go higher than a unit on the Cardinals. Most books have them listed at +8, but they are +9 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

All the pressure is on the Seahawks, while Arizona would love to play spoiler.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
A slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 59% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won 6 of the past 9 meetings, excluding the 2016 tie.

Seahawks are 43-25 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 23-11 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 16, Cardinals 9
Cardinals +9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 26, Seahawks 24

Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) at Denver Broncos (5-10)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 37.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -6 (KC starters) or Broncos -3 (KC scrubs).
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for a Ross Avila update! Ross, some idiot kid on Facebook who challenged me to a picking contest this year, has finally thrown in the towel. He stopped making his own picks after Week 3, and because I called him out on stealing other people’s selections, he has apparently quit.

Ross said he would go away for good if I won, but he predictably hasn’t kept his word. Instead, he attacked random women who weren’t around to defend themselves last week. A few weeks ago, Ross pretended that he’s a Vegas tout of some sort:

Ross then tried to make a bet with me, which is dumb because I know he doesn’t have the money to pay:

I’ve bet with readers before, but Ross is some teenage loser who doesn’t even have $20; let alone $100.

Ross, to his credit, gave an opinion on a game prior to kickoff for once, so I made sure to tell him that I was proud of him:

Ross reemphasized his opinion on me being wrong about the Vikings-Packers game:

Ross never replied, failing to admit that he was wrong. Surprise, surprise!

One person in the comment board believes I should stop acknowledging Ross:

Ross might be an idiot, but don’t forget that he’s also a pathetic loser. His entire life revolves around trolling me on my Facebook wall. He literally has nothing else going for him, so if I were to ignore him, what else would he do with himself? He’d probably lock himself in the bedroom of his mom’s trailer and cry himself to sleep if he didn’t get my attention. No, I will continue to do him a favor and acknowledge him because I’m a nice guy. You’re welcome, Ross.

RESTED STARTERS: Kansas City won’t be using its starters. Andy Reid has been a head coach since 1999, and he’s never used his starters in meaningless games, and that’s exactly what this is. The Chiefs are locked into the No. 4 seed no matter what. As a result, we’ll have Patrick Mahomes going up against Paxton Lynch. It’s like a Week 4 preseason game!

RECAP: This is one of the toughest calls of the week. The Chiefs will be using their backups, so that makes you think that Denver is the right side. However, Paxton Lynch has been a train wreck as an NFL quarterback thus far, and I’m not convinced that he can beat Kansas City’s reserves by more than a field goal. The Chiefs, despite using their backup, might have the superior signal-caller.

I’m taking the Chiefs, but I’m not betting this game. We just don’t know what we’re getting with Mahomes yet. I think Mahomes is going to be very good down the road, but he may not be ready just yet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s been confirmed that Patrick Mahomes will start this game. Hilariously, this spread has dropped to +3 +100. The public continues to bet the Chiefs, regardless of the fact that they’re going to be using their backups.

SATURDAY NOTES: This game is totally worthless from a betting perspective. I’d love the Chiefs if they were playing their starters, but they’re not. Patrick Mahomes is the better quarterback, but he won’t have Alex Smith’s great weapons at his disposal.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread was up to -4.5, but crashed back down to -3. Perhaps people remembered how horrible Paxton Lynch was in previous starts. Either way, this is a non-wager for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs are missing all of their key offensive starters, as well as Marcus Peters and Derrick Johnson. Despite this, I still like the Chiefs, which says a lot about how bad Paxton Lynch is.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Chiefs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may sit their starters.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The Chiefs are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won the last 4 meetings.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Broncos 16
Chiefs +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 27, Broncos 24

San Francisco 49ers (5-10) at Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -5.5 (LAR starters) or 49ers -4 (LAR scrubs).
Sunday, Dec 31, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

This week on FOX, we’re going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles where two teams I never heard of are playing each other. Guys, I hope everyone had a great Christmas. This year, my new daddy-to-be Jay Cutler bought me a Carson Wentz jersey! And he got it autographed by Carson! He tricked Carson by saying, “I need this for some stupid kid I know from this woman I’m engaged to now, I dunno.” Haha, isn’t it funny that he tricked Carson into thinking I’m a kid?

Emmitt: Carson, do you thinking that Jake Cutler probably say truthfulness when he referring to stupid kid, and stupid kid are happen to be yourselves?

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s just dumb. I’m not a kid. I’m, I’m 66 years old! Sure, mother says I’m still too young to talk to girls, but there’s no way I’m a kid!

Herm: YOU’RE THE KID! YOU ARE THE KID! YOU HAPPEN TO BE THE KID! YOU HAPPEN TO BE THE CHILD! YOU REALLY ARE THE KID! YOU MUST SEE THAT YOU’RE THE KID! EVEN THOUGH YOU’RE AN ADULT! BUT A KID CAN BE AN ADULT! AND AN ADULT CAN BE A KID! WE’RE ALL ADULTS! AND YET WE’RE ALL KIDS! KIDS FROM THE ADULTS! ADULTS FROM THE KIDS! ADULTS FROM THE ADULTS! KIDS FROM THE KIDS! KIDS FROM THE… uhh… umm…

Reilly: I can’t wait until you lose all of your games next year at Arizona State, you f***ing piece of s**t. You’re not even interesting anymore! All you do is repeat yourself! Anyway, we’re joined by a special guest today. It’s former Panthers owner Jerry Richardson. I say he’s special because Jerry used his new money to buy our TV network. Jerry, how are you?

Richardson: I know you’re new to this, but you must not refer to me by my name, for that is disrespectful. I am your boss, and I demand you must refer to me as Mister. No, scratch that. You must call me Master. No, how about Master of Disaster.

Reilly: Master of Disaster?

Richardson: Now, you’re getting it. Good boy, here’s a treat.

Millen: Excuse me, Master of Disaster, I would love to welcome you to the company. I am here to present you with a golden kielbasa, as well as my backside. Master of Disaster Jerry Richardson, please insert this kielbasa into my backside at your leisure.

Tollefson: Millen, pull your pants up, you f***ing sicko. Master of Disaster Jerry Richardson, have you seen our one camera woman? Wow, she’s new, and she doesn’t know what she’s in for. I was thinking of kidnapping her tonight after some drinks and making her cook and clean naked for me, but I’d love to present her to you as a gift.

Richardson: Good boy, Tollefson. Here’s a treat. I will talk to this camera woman and ask her if I can shave both her legs and armpits.

Fouts: And here’s what Master of Disaster means by armpits. There are things on a human being called arms. They are the things attached to your shoulders. Most people have two of them, but my next-door neighbor has three-and-a-half arms. Then, there’s pits. A pit can be a lot of things. A pit can be a big hole in the ground, and if you fall into it, you’ll lose a life and have only two remaining. A pit can also be a seed in a piece of fruit. So, when you say armpit, you’re referring to either an arm in a hole in the ground, or an arm holding a seed of a piece of fruit.

Wolfley: DAN, YOU MENTIONED THAT YOU HAVE A NEIGHBOR WITH THREE-AND-A-HALF ARMS. ONE OF MY BEST FRIENDS ALSO HAS THREE-AND-A-HALF ARMS. DO YOU THINK IT’S POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE SAME PERSON?

Fouts: I doubt I have the same friends as you, Ron. I run in elite circles, and here’s what I mean by elite circles. A circle is a shape that’s round…

Richardson: Do you idiots ever shut up? Heel! Both of you, heel!

Reilly: Haha, Master of Disaster told you to heel.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it’s funny that you should mention heel, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other foot parts, Kevin. How about big toe, Kevin? That’s an interesting one, Kevin. What about second-biggest toe, Kevin? Let’s discuss middle toe, Kevin. How about we chat about second-smallest toe, Kevin? Can you name another part of the foot, Kevin? Can you figure out what the next answer is in the pattern, Kevin?

Richardson: I’d like to interject here. I know the answer to this. It’s the pinky toe. Good boy for mentioning that because I love to paint women’s pinky toes. In fact, I’m going to do that to the camera woman right now, regardless of whether she accepts my request or not, for I am the Master of Disaster.

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you were wrong about your pepperoni pizza guess, Kevin.

Reilly: I DIDN’T EVEN F***ING GUESS, YOU F***ING A**HOLE! MASTER OF DISASTER ANSWERED, YOU F***ING PR**K! We’ll be back after this!

RESTED STARTERS: The Rams are going to be the No. 3 or 4 seed no matter what happens this week. It could be argued that the fourth seed is more desirable, as that will allow the Rams to play the Eagles instead of the Vikings in the second round. However, the counter-argument is that the top two seeds are quarterbacked by Nick Foles and Case Keenum, so they both could lose in the divisional round. Thus, the No. 3 seed could be hosting the fourth or fifth seed in the NFC Championship.

However, is risking injury to Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, or one of the important offensive linemen worth that possibility? I really don’t think so. I would rest my starters if I were Sean McVay, but he’s a new head coach, so we don’t know what he plans on doing.

RECAP: I can promise you that my Chiefs-Broncos, Cowboys-Eagles and Titans-Jaguars picks won’t change unless there’s some colossal line movement. This game might be different, however, because the Rams are an unknown. They could easily play their starters the entire way, or they could rest them entirely. We just don’t know yet, so hopefully McVay gives some confirmation soon. If the Rams rest their starters, 49ers +4 will be a big play.

I’m going to side with the 49ers for now, but check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Joe Curley of the Ventura County Star is reporting that the Rams are going to rest Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan, and that Sean McVay hinted that Jared Goff and Todd Gurley would be out as well…

If the Rams sit their two best linemen, there’s no way they’re playing Goff. They’ll also be missing Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron. It wouldn’t surprise me if Aaron Donald sat as well, but even if he doesn’t, it’s likely going to be Sean Mannion favored by three points, which is just ridiculous. This line is +2.5 in most places, but it’s +3 -120 at BetUS and Bovada, and I’m going to lock that in for five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Oh man. I had to make a snap decision Tuesday night when Joe Curley reported that the Rams would be sitting most of their key players. Had I been able to redo it, I would’ve made the 49ers +3 -120 my January NFL Pick of the Month. I’m happy with five units, but it really should be eight. This spread is now -3 -125 or -130 across the board because it’s been confirmed that Sean Mannion will be the Rams’ starting quarterback. The 49ers should win this easily, and I’d still like them for three units at -3 -125 (available at Bovada).

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers are now -4 in most books. Vegas is going to lose a ton of money on this game, so I’m afraid we’re going to see the headline: “Jimmy Garoppolo out after slipping in shower” in the next 24 hours. Unless this game is fixed, San Francisco should be able to cover this spread with a blowout victory. The 49ers have no one on their final injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is all the way up to -5.5! And you know what? I’d still like San Francisco just a bit at that number. I’m still expecting to hear that Jimmy Garoppolo slipped in the shower or cut his leg off while mowing his lawn, or something. The amount of money on the 49ers is insane.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s nothing new to say here. I’d like 49ers -5.5 for a very small bet. Hopefully you get a much better number earlier in the week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Everyone bet the 49ers when they were underdogs.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 81% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 17 of the last 24 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS as a starter.

Opening Line: Rams -5.5.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 13
49ers +3 -120 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 34, Rams 13

Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
Washington at NY Giants, Houston at Indianapolis, Dallas at Philadelphia, Green Bay at Detroit, NY Jets at New England, Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Chicago at Minnesota

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

No teaser this week.

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
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2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
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2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)