NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)

NFL Picks (2017): 74-86-6 (-$3,305)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 20, 6:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games








Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-6)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 41.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -2.
Sunday, Nov 19, 4:05 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I don’t know when Philip Rivers suffered a concussion, but he’s in protocol right now and may not play in this game. If Rivers can’t go, it’ll be Kellen Clemens at the helm. Because Buffalo’s defense would easily feast on Clemens, let’s just discuss this matchup as if Rivers were playing, since that’s more interesting.

The Chargers’ offense has been limited this year because of the offensive line; the team has scored 17, 13, 14 and 16 in its previous four contests. The blocking on the left side has been fine with Russell Okung and rookie Dan Feeney, but rest of the front sucks. There is a big hole at right tackle, and Shaq Lawson will be able to take advantage of that. I also like Jerry Hughes’ matchup versus Okung, despite what I just said of the Chargers’ blind-side protector.

Rivers won’t have much time if he plays, so it’s difficult to imagine him mustering much offense, especially against a talented secondary. The Chargers might be able to get something out of their running game, as the Bills have been gashed ever since they dealt Marcell Dareus, but I’m not sure San Angeles’ blocking is good enough to take advantage of that liability.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Speaking of changes to the run defense, that’s exactly what the Chargers experienced last week. It seemed like everyone who liked the Jaguars to cover pointed at the Chargers’ poor run defense DVOA, ignoring the fact that Denzel Perryman’s return to the lineup would greatly bolster San Angeles’ ability to stop the run. Perryman played well in his 2017 debut, helping to clamp down on Leonard Fournette. I don’t see why the Chargers would treat LeSean McCoy any differently.

I think McCoy could still be a factor as a receiving back, as the Chargers happen to be susceptible to that. They’re terrific elsewhere, including the secondary. They have two talented cornerbacks, though it’s not like Tyrod Taylor makes good use of his lackluster receivers. Kelvin Benjamin is obviously talented, but he and Taylor don’t appear to be on the same page yet.

I haven’t spoken of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram yet, which is probably a mistake because they’re the best aspect of the Chargers’ prolific defense. Aside from Bosa’s foolish personal-foul penalty at the end of regulation, both were dominant against Jacksonville. The Bills have better tackles, though that assumes Cordy Glenn plays. Buffalo really missed Glenn last week, but he was close to suiting up, so perhaps that means he’ll play in this contest.

RECAP: I don’t know what this spread will be if Rivers is out – I imagine the Bills might be field-goal favorites – but if Rivers suits up, I love the Bills at +4.5. In fact, they would be the second of my three five-unit wagers.

First of all, this spread is way too high. It was Chargers -3 a week ago, and now it’s -4.5 because of Buffalo’s blowout loss to the Saints. I think that’s an overreaction, and the true number is closer to three. In fact, my personal line is Bills +2.5, so I think we’re getting a ton of value with the visitor in an obvious buy-low situation.

Second, the Bills are just in a much better spot than the Chargers happen to be. This is a must-win for them, and they’ll be looking to validate themselves after being utterly embarrassed against the Saints. The Chargers, conversely, have to be tired from yet another East Coast trip, and they have to conserve some energy because they have to battle the Cowboys on Thanksgiving just four days after this contest.

And finally, the Chargers don’t have a good home-field advantage. There will probably be more Bills fans in the stands than Charger supporters. The only team the Chargers have beaten as hosts this year is Denver, and that was with the help of an unlikely Travis Benjamin punt return touchdown. They even lost to the Dolphins. Who are they to be favored by 4.5 in this matchup?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This game is off the board in most books because of the Philip Rivers implications. Rivers is in concussion protocol, but it sounds like he’s going to play. Conversely, the Bills are going with Nathan Peterman instead of Tyrod Taylor. I wish I could go into the archives to see Peterman’s film, but this is his first NFL start. I’m hesitant to bet heavily on the Bills now because 1) Peterman could be a significant downgrade; 2) Buffalo players may not respond well to Taylor’s benching; 3) Cordy Glenn has yet to practice this week. We’ll see what the new spread is in the wake of the Peterman announcement, but there’s a very good chance that I’m going to decrease the unit count on this game to 2-3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Philip Rivers will likely suit up, which is horrible news for the Bills, who have made a quarterback switch. As mentioned Thursday, I’m hesitant to bet big on Mr. Peterman. He’s a rookie making his first start against a great defense. Not only that, but he won’t have Cordy Glenn protecting his blind side! Yes, the Bills will be playing an elite defense with a rookie quarterback and a rookie left tackle. I don’t understand this decision-making. One of two things is going to happen. One, the Bills players, frustrated by their head coach’s panic move, will lay another egg and get blown out. Two, Sean McDermott will look like a genius for going to Peterman, who will either beat or nearly vanquish the Chargers, a team looking ahead to their Thanksgiving affair in Dallas. I’m not sure what will happen, and I’m kind of pissed at McDermott for ruining what I thought was a great bet. I no longer love the Bills. However, I love betting on bad news, and with this line at +6 -105 and rising, I’m going to keep three units on the Bills.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been all over the Chargers, moving this spread to -7. I still like the Bills a lot, and I like buying on bad news. With this line at +7, I may increase this wager to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line has stopped moving up, meaning the sharps no longer like the Chargers at -7. I’m still on the Bills for a few units, crossing my fingers that Nathan Peterman doesn’t completely s**t the bed.


The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Chargers are coming off an exhausting, overtime game and are traveling back across the country. In four days, they have to play in Dallas. The Bills, meanwhile, were embarrassed in a home blowout.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 55% (16,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Bills are 12-19 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: .


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 21, Bills 17
    Bills +7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
    Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Chargers 54, Bills 24






    Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
    Line: Broncos by 2.5. Total: 38.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -6.
    Sunday, Nov 19, 4:25 PM
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.

    Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 10 (I can’t believe this is the 10th year I’ve been doing this!) In Episode 10, Emmitt finds Brett Favre and asks if he can borrow his goose egg.

    DENVER OFFENSE: It never made much sense, but Matt Flynn was always relatively successful with the Packers despite struggling with every other team. Perhaps that’s the case with Brock Osweiler. The former Brown and Texan performed poorly with those two teams, but he had a solid showing against the Patriots on Sunday night. He didn’t do so well in the red zone, but he was able to deliver strikes to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders with ease in between the 20s.

    Of course, Osweiler didn’t see much pressure against the Patriots, who are incapable of getting to the quarterback. The Bengals’ pass rush has been inconsistent as well, but they have the talent to harass Osweiler. Carlos Dunlap going up against Denver’s turnstile of a right tackle is a mismatch, and Geno Atkins will of course produce some pressure himself. Denver has some solid blockers up front – mainly the center and right guard – so it’s not like it’ll be a complete jailbreak, or anything.

    Also, it must be pointed out how bad Cincinnati’s secondary has been. Dre Kirkpatrick has really struggled this season, while the safeties have played poorly. Thomas and Sanders have tremendous matchups, so it’ll just be a matter of whether Osweiler will have enough time in the pocket to get the ball to them.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: While the Broncos have two solid blockers, the Bengals have just one OK one in guard Clint Boling. The rest of their offensive line is hot garbage. I have no idea how they’re going to block Ambassador Von Miller or Derek Wolfe. Shane Ray should also play well for the first time this season.

    Of course, Andy Dalton is used to this. He’s been harassed on most of his drop-backs, and it’ll only get worse in this unfavorable matchup. Making matters worse, Dalton won’t be able to consistently find A.J. Green, as he’ll be blanketed by Aqib Talib and the rest of the members of the “No Fly Zone.” Joe Mixon, meanwhile, will be going up against one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

    The only edge the Bengals have on this side of the ball is Tyler Kroft battling a linebacking corps that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends all year. So, yeah, that’s not much hope for the Bengals, since they have to rely on Kroft moving the chains.

    RECAP: This is my third and final five-unit selection of the week. I have a couple of other multi-unit plays, but I love the Broncos.

    I really don’t understand this spread. My eyes popped out of my head when I saw -2.5. I made Denver -6! This spread says the Bengals and Broncos are about equal, and I don’t think that’s true at all. They have the same records, but Cincinnati has been losing to mediocre teams and getting blown out by great opponents. Their only recent win was a close victory over the Colts at home. The Broncos, meanwhile, have endured an extremely difficult schedule.

    Speaking of which, let me ask you something: What’s the difference between the Broncos and Jaguars? Yes, one is 3-6, and the other is 6-3. But they were both 3-3 three games ago. Since then, the Jaguars played the Colts, Bengals and Chargers (at home), while the Broncos have battled the Chiefs (road), Eagles (road) and Patriots (who were off a bye). Both teams have terrific defenses, pedestrian quarterbacks, sub-par offensive lines and one dynamic aspect on offense (Leonard Fournette for the Jaguars, Thomas and Sanders for the Broncos.) Had the Jaguars played the Chiefs, Eagles and Patriots, they’d be 3-6 right now, and if the Broncos took on the Colts, Bengals and Chargers (at home), they could easily be 6-3.

    I bring up the Jaguars-Broncos comparison because Jacksonville demolished Cincinnati at home two weeks ago, and I don’t see why the Broncos couldn’t do the same thing, especially with their home-field advantage, which is much better than the Jaguars’. This is a great buy-low opportunity on Denver.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me on this game. I still love the Broncos, and because of the Bears’ injury concerns and the Bills’ quarterback switch, they might be the only five-unit wager I have this week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I cut down my first two five-unit bets because of injuries and inexplicable coaching decisions. What about the third? I still love the Broncos, as nothing has changed for me.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Broncos. I’m hoping to get better juice on -2.5. Hopefully the sharps come in on the Bengals, but they haven’t done that yet.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for the -2.5 -110 juice. It’s still -2.5 -120 across the board, though I’d rather have that than the -3 -105 at Bovada.


    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    The Bengals have undergone lots of travel lately, with this being their third consecutive road game. The Broncos were humiliated on national TV.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    Money starting to come in on the Broncos.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 72% (13,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Bengals are 36-22 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: .


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Bengals 10
    Broncos -2.5 -120 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$600
    Under 38 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
    Bengals 20, Broncos 17






    New England Patriots (7-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-5)
    Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 54.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -4.5.
    Sunday, Nov 19, 4:25 PM
    At Mexico
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is I Have a Beautiful Figure Again

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Something that annoys me is when NFL TV analysts say stupid things like, “The Patriots scored 41 points against Denver’s great defense!” Uh, no. New England scored 17 points on special teams, so the offense really generated 24 on the Broncos. I don’t know what that has to do with this game, but I just had to get it off my chest.

    I suppose it would matter if the Raiders had a prolific defense, but they don’t. In fact, their stop unit is quite the opposite. Their secondary is in shambles, and their linebacking corps is even worse. Tom Brady will be able to put his pass-catching running backs and tight ends into great position to abuse all of Oakland’s liabilities. The Raiders have been atrocious versus tight ends, so I don’t know how they’re going to contain Rob Gronkowski.

    The one hope the Raiders have of slowing down New England is to generate a great pass rush without blitzing. They could have the appropriate mismatches on the edge to make that happen. Khalil Mack going up against either an injured Marcus Cannon or backup right tackle is very lopsided. On the other side, Bruce Irvin will be battling Nate Solder, who isn’t healthy. He should have an edge in that matchup.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: As mentioned in the Broncos-Bengals capsule, Brock Osweiler had plenty of success throwing against the Patriots in between the 20s, but faltered in the red zone. There’s no reason to think Derek Carr couldn’t have even more success. Carr is the better quarterback, and he has similar weapons at receiver. Amari Cooper has struggled this year, but Jared Cook can make up for it. Cook has played very well this year, and the Patriots struggle versus tight ends.

    Also, Carr’s protection is much better than Osweiler’s. It’s not like the Patriots generate any sort of consistent pass rush anyway, so Oakland’s blockers should give Carr all day to throw. Considering the liabilities New England has in its back seven, that’s the last thing the team needs.

    The one area in which the Raiders won’t have much success is running the ball with Marshawn Lynch. The Patriots have surrendered just three 100-yard rushing performances all year, and Lynch, who has been very mediocre this season, likely won’t help Oakland be the fourth team to eclipse the century mark against New England.

    RECAP: Most Patriots spreads are inflated, and I believe that to be the case once again here. I made New England -4.5, but the line is -6.5 or -7, depending on where you look.

    I like the Raiders for two units at +6.5 and three units at +7. Their defense won’t be able to stop Brady, but I think they can keep pace with their dynamic offense. At the very worst, Carr seems like the type of quarterback who can easily generate a covering drive with a back-door touchdown.

    Also, the Raiders’ familiarity with Mexico should help. They played in this altitude last year, while the Patriots don’t know what it feels like. That should help Oakland, and perhaps the Mexican Raider fan who had the laser pointer will show up again and attempt to blind Brady, just as he did with Osweiler last year. That said, don’t expect the fans to be one-sided. Mexican fans love their Raiders, but according to e-mailer Luis A., who lives in Mexico, there are tons of Patriot fans down there as well.

    Still, the line is off enough for me to consider a mid-range bet on Oakland. The line is +7 at Bovada, so I’m putting three units on the Raiders.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Right tackle Marcus Cannon isn’t practicing for the Patriots, meaning New England may have a backup right tackle trying to block Khalil Mack. I’m still fairly strong on the Raiders.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Marcus Cannon won’t be the only lineman New England is missing. Center David Andrews is out as well, which is important. Andrews has played very well this year, so he’ll be missed, especially in a very loud stadium. I still like the Raiders a good deal, as 7.5 feels like way too many points for Derek Carr, who, by the way, is a perfect 4-0 against the spread as an underdog of six or more since his sophomore campaign.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are betting the Raiders, but there’s so much public money on the Patriots that the line keeps moving up. This spread is too high, especially the +7.5 -115 available at Bovada.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’d rather habe the +7.5 -115 at Bovada than the +7 available elsewhere. I still like the Raiders, as Derek Carr is a talented quarterback who should be able to keep his team within a touchdown.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    This is a must-win for the Raiders. The Patriots, meanwhile, are coming off a blowout win on national TV, and they play nothing but divisional games (and the Steelers) after this. Also, the familiarity and fans in Mexico could help the Raiders.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    Everyone is betting the farm on the Patriots.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 82% (32,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Tom Brady is 214-67 as a starter (157-111 ATS).
  • Derek Carr is 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 6+.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -5.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: .


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Raiders 23
    Raiders +7.5 -115 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$345
    Under 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Patriots 33, Raiders 8






    Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
    Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -4.
    Sunday, Nov 19, 8:30 PM
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.

    It’s time for a Ross Avila update! Ross, some idiot kid on Facebook who challenged me to a picking contest this year, is now 12-37-1 with his selections, while I am 22-26-2. Yes, Ross is 12-37-1! Of course, Ross hasn’t made a pick since Week 4, opting to copy off people instead. This was supposed to be a handicapping competition, and I warned him that he had to make his own picks. He didn’t listen, so I’ve been DQing his entries every week despite warning him on numerous occasions. Ross is too scared to make his own selections, unfortunately. At least he has his pretend Google job going for him.

    There’s some good news for Ross. He always talks about his fake Google job, but he might have some actual work lined up:



    Ross still hasn’t gotten back to me about this new line of employment, which is a shame because I think he could have quite the career stealing other people’s NHL picks.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: I couldn’t believe that Jason Garrett won NFL Head Coach of the Year in 2016. He had everything fall into his lap, while Bill Belichick maintained a 3-1 record without Tom Brady. And yet, Garrett won? Really? Garrett proved to be inept last week when he gave backup left tackle Chaz Green absolutely no help. Adrian Clayborn, as a result, registered six sacks.

    I imagine that after a week of hearing criticism, Garrett will give Green the assistance he desperately needs if the reserve has to make another start. Either way, the Cowboys are going to have major problems blocking the Eagles. Vinny Curry will win against Green or a hobbled Tyron Smith, but that’s not even Dallas’ worst matchup. Right tackle La’el Collins stands no chance against Brandon Graham, while Timmy Jernigan and Fletcher Cox will create havoc in the interior, with Jernigan going up against woeful left guard Jonathan Cooper.

    Dak Prescott will be under heavy pressure again, and he won’t have Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield to draw attention away from him. Making matters worse, Eagles’ top cornerback Ronald Darby will be back in action to help put the clamps on Dez Bryant.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’ll be up to the Cowboys’ defense to keep this game close because their scoring unit won’t be able to generate many points once again. That’s going to be a major problem because Sean Lee is out of the lineup. Dallas’ stop unit is night and day without Lee. He’s the heart, soul and brains of the defense, and without him, Dallas has been infinitely worse against running backs and tight ends.

    Carson Wentz utilizes players from both positions frequently, particularly tight ends. Zach Ertz is going to have a monstrous game, and the Cowboys don’t really have anyone to match up against Alshon Jeffery either. Jay Ajayi, meanwhile, serves as a new threat out of the backfield, so the Cowboys will have to worry about stopping the run without Lee. That’ll give Wentz more opportunities downfield.

    Dallas absolutely has to pressure Wentz, but its top defensive lineman, DeMarcus Lawrence, has a tough battle against Lane Johnson, one of the best right tackles in the NFL. David Irving also has a difficult matchup, as Brandon Brooks is a talented guard. Tyrone Crawford is the only Cowboy who will beat his opponent, but it won’t be enough.

    RECAP: Man, oh, man, do I wish I bet the Eagles +6.5, as referenced in my Random NFL Notes. That would be the NFL Pick of the Century for me. Five thousand million units!

    It’s insane how great of a line Eagles +6.5 was, considering that I still like the Eagles at -3 -120! Yes, I know the public is all over Philadelphia, and yes, I know this may seem like a great buy-low situation on the Cowboys. However, I don’t think it’s low enough. My line is Philadelphia -4. The Eagles are just so much better than the Cowboys, especially with Smith being out/injured and Lee missing in action. The Eagles are the best team in the NFL, and they keep covering, so I don’t know why that would stop.

    I hate throwing money on a team that’s receiving so much public action, so I’m going to limit this to two units. Still, the Eagles should cover. I’ve been on them every single week, and they’re 7-2 against the spread this year. It should be 8-2 after this game.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, look at this line movement! The Eagles are now -4.5 in most places, though still -4 at 5Dimes. This is a result of two things: tons of public money on the Eagles with no sharp action on the Cowboys, and Tyron Smith’s injury. The books are desperate for Dallas money. Unfortunately, with the -3s now gone, I’m no longer going to bet on the Eagles, as I could see them beating Dallas by exactly three points.

    SATURDAY NOTES: This spread won’t stop rising! It’s now -6 in most books! I would still take the Eagles, as this is a clear sign that the books are absolutely desperate for Dallas money.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’ll be interesting to see if the sharps come in on the Cowboys not that the line is +6. I would still take the Eagles at -6, but the value is gone.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s crazy that this line continues to rise. It’s moved up to -6.5 in some books, and even -7 at Bovada. Vegas is desperate for the sharps to bet Dallas, but they’re not doing it. If you want to wager on the Eagles, they are still -6 at 5Dimes, but all of the value is gone. I wouldn’t recommend betting this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
    This is a big game for the Cowboys to remain in strong position for the playoffs, but the Eagles are not going to take this game lightly.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    The Eagles are getting more money than any other team this week.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 73% (74,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 14 meetings.
  • The underdog is 74-47 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Cowboys are 32-21 ATS as an underdog since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: .


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Cowboys 23
    Eagles -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Eagles 37, Cowboys 9






    Atlanta Falcons (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
    Line: Falcons by 1. Total: 46.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -3.
    Monday, Nov 20, 8:30 PM
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, where the Atlanta Braves are playing the Seattle Mariners. Guys, we have a special guest with us tonight, and by special, I mean someone who rides the short bus. This is Jerry Jones, the idiot owner of the stupid Cowboys, who aren’t nearly as good as my Philadelphia Eagles! The producers want me to ask Jerry about questions regarding Zeke Elliott for some reason. Guys, can you think of things for me to ask this rat?

    Emmitt: Rat, Jerry are a great owning in the National Football of Conference. He the guy who sign all the check for the Cowboy, and what I mean by this are that Jery have a sign and then he give check to everyone so they can dip posit on the banks.

    Reilly: My name’s not Rat! Damn it, my name is Kevin! I’m named after mother’s favorite actor, Kevin Spacey. That may sound weird because Kevin Spacey is younger than me, but I didn’t have a name for the first 35 years of my life. I was just Kid Reilly or Son of Mr. Reilly until then.

    Herm: THAT’S SAD! THAT’S UPSETTING! THAT’S PATHETIC! THAT’S HORRIFYING! THAT’S RIDICULOUS! HERM FEELS SORRY FOR YOU! SO HERM’S GONNA SHUT UP NOW! HERM’S GONNA SHUT UP! HERM’S GONNA BE QUIET NOW! HERM’S GONNA STOP TALKING! HERM’S GOTTA STOP TALKING! HERM’S GONNA STOP TALKING NOW! HERM NEEDS TO STOP TALKING! DON’T WORRY, HERM’S GONNA QUIT TALKING! HERM’S NOT GONNA TALK NO MORE! HERM’S GONNA SHUT UP, NOW! HERM’S GONNA SHUT UP! HERMS’ GOTTA REFRAIN FROM TALKING! HERM’S HAS TO ZIP IT! HERM’S GONNA ZIP IT! HERM’S GONNA HAVE TO ZIP IT! HERM G…

    Reilly: Shut up, idiot, already, a**hole! Anyway, Jerry Jones, thanks for joining us even though you are an a**hole. My producers made me say thanks. First question: Why do you hate my Philadelphia Eagles so much?

    Jerry Jones: Why, I happen to be the owner of America’s favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys. Being the owner of the Cowboys is like being a water lilly in the middle of an Arctic glacier.

    Reilly: What the hell does that even mean? OK, I’m done talking to this idiot. Anyone else have any questions? My producers are telling me they have to be about Zeke Elliott, but I don’t know what I would ask about him.

    Tollefson: Jerry, I have a question. You have lots of women cooking and cleaning for you. So do I. However, you have more. My questions are, what are your techniques for kidnapping women, and would you be willing to sell any of your women to me?

    Millen: Oh shut up, Tolly, Jerry isn’t going to sell any of his women. Jerry, would you be willing to sell any of your players to me? I’ll take 100-percent USDA Men, of course, but I’m willing to settle for anyone 75 percent or higher. The more backsides I can insert my kielbasas into, the better!

    Jerry Jones: Who are these scoundrels who are thinkin’ that I, Jerry Jones, owner of America’s greatest team, is gonna sell women and men to them? They thinkin’ they can afford my women and men is like a one-eyed hound dog barkin’ at a salami on the kitchen table.

    Reilly: That reminds me of my childhood, Jerry, when mother had me sit on the floor during dinner time, and I had to beg for food. I’m beginning to think you’re not as bad as I thought you were even though you own the evil empire!

    Fouts: And here’s what Rat means by evil empire. There’s an empire, and it’s evil. That’s what he means by evil empire.

    Wolfley: THANKS A LOT, CAPTAIN OBVIOUS. SPEAKING OF CAPTAIN OBVIOUS, ONE OF MY FRIENDS IS A CAPTAIN IN THE NAVY AND HIS LAST NAME IS OBVIOUS. HE’S CAPTAIN OBVIOUS, AND HE REMINDS ME OF A FIRE HYDRANT WITH LIPS.

    Reilly: What the hell are you talking about? Why does a captain in the navy remind you of a fire hydrant? What’s wrong with you, you sick freak?

    Wolfley: WHO ARE YOU CALLING SICK FREAK, YOU SICK FREAK WITH LIPS? WHY DON’T YOU GET SOME MILK FROM YOUR PRECIOUS MOTHER!

    Reilly: Hey, that’s Jay Cutler’s girlfriend you’re talking about! Jerry Jones, my producers are telling me I have time for one more question for you, and the question has to be about Zeke Elliott. OK, here goes. Jerry, what is Zeke Elliott’s favorite color?

    Tollefson: You’re a real moron, Reilly.

    Reilly: No, I’m not! Mother says I’m smart!

    Jerry Jones: Well, to answer your question, Mr. Rat, Zeke’s favorite color is the color of a blood moon in the end of October over a wide prairie skyline. And by gum, I’m gonna sue the entire NFL for suspendin’ my precious runnin’ back.

    Reilly: Why, what happened? I only pay attention to my Philadelphia Eagles.

    Charles Davis: Kevin, you’re the most worthless analyst ever, Kevin. Let’s see if you can name one Dallas Cowboy running back ever, Kevin. I bet you can’t do it, Kevin. I bet you can’t, Kevin. I’ll bet you a pepperoni pizza slice, Kevin. Those are the stakes, Kevin. How about you name a Cowboys running back, Kevin.

    Reilly: Well, obviously Emm…

    Charles Davis: Pepperoni pizza is wrong, Kevin. Those were the stakes, Kevin. Why would the stakes be the same as the answer, Kevin? You’re not very smart, Kevin.

    Reilly: SHUT THE F*** UP, LIKE I SAID, MOTHER SAYS I’M SMART AND JAY CUTLER SAYS I’M SMART, TOO, AND I NO LONGER HAVE TO BEG FOR FOOD ON THE GROUND, SO F*** ALL OF YOU! We’ll be back after this!

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: I had the Falcons for four units last week over the Cowboys, but I’ll even admit that it shouldn’t have been such a lopsided affair. Atlanta’s scoring attack took off once Sean Lee went down with an injury; the Falcons weren’t doing very much beforehand.

    I say this because I don’t think the Falcons are going to have much success on this side of the ball against the Seahawks. Sure, Seattle lost Richard Sherman, but Sherman wasn’t playing at a very high level anyway because of his bothersome injury. What’s more important is that the Seahawks will have Earl Thomas back on the field. Thomas means more to the secondary than Sherman, as Seattle simply hasn’t been the same whenever one of its two star safeties have been out of the lineup.

    Besides, it’s not like the Falcons’ problems have suddenly been fixed. Matt Ryan is still a tad off, and Julio Jones isn’t dominating like he did last year. A problem happens to be the right side of the offensive line. Guard Wes Schweitzer is terrible, while tackle Ryan Schraeder has never been the same since returning from injury. It seems like Michael Bennett and Jarran Reed should be able to take advantage of those liabilities.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Falcons’ blocking is worse than it was last year, the opposite is definitely true for the Seahawks. New left tackle Duane Brown provides a steady presence on Russell Wilson’s blind side, so don’t expect Adrian Clayborn to tally six sacks again. Brown should actually be able to keep him off the stat sheet entirely. Wilson’s protection still won’t be great – Grady Jarrett will dominate the interior – but Wilson will enjoy more time than he did in the early stages of the season, granting him the opportunity to torch the Falcons.

    Atlanta’s defense certainly has some holes. Cornerback Robert Alford and safety Ricardo Allen have both been liabilities, especially the latter, so Wilson figures to have success on downfield shots. The Falcons also haven’t been very good at defending elite tight ends this year, so Jimmy Graham will probably have a big performance. One thing the Seahawks will not do well is run the ball, unless Wilson is the one scrambling. Seattle’s ground attack sucks, but there is some hope for later in the year, as Pete Carroll said there’s a chance Chris Carson could return to action in December.

    RECAP: The public is all over the Falcons, but I disagree with that. I think this line is too low, as I made the Seahawks -5.

    I don’t understand why people think these teams are suddenly even. The Falcons crushed the Cowboys, but did so with Dallas missing some very important pieces of its roster. They’re still the same team that lost to the Dolphins at home and struggled to beat the Jets. They’re not as good on the road, while the Seahawks are so much more potent as hosts, especially in night games. Yes, the infamous Circadian rhythms will come into play, and I expect the Falcons to fade away in the second half.

    I love the value we’re getting with the Seahawks, who will have the benefit of extra rest. They’ll also be out to prove that they can still be a Super Bowl contender, even in the wake of losing Sherman to a season-ending injury.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Pete Carroll confirmed that Earl Thomas will play, which is great news. Unfortunately, Duane Brown is a game-time decision. I still like the Seahawks a lot, but Brown’s absence would make me drop this wager to 2-3 units.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Kam Chancellor is out, and Duane Brown could be as well. Seriously, this is one of the most frustrating weeks I can remember with injuries ruining picks I like. I’m still going to bet the Seahawks – I can’t wait until ESPN spends two hours trying to figure out how Seattle’s secondary will contain Matt Ryan – but I’m going to drop the unit count to three.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is down to -1.5, as it appears as though there’s some sharp money on the Falcons. I still like Seattle.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Falcons are now favored, which is ridiculous. Atlanta has not been itself this year except for the win over Dallas – and we just saw what the Cowboys are made of without Tyron Smith and Sean Lee! Yes, the Seahawks have some key injuries, but it’s not like the Falcons don’t have their faults. As it stands now, I think these teams are about even, so this line should be -3. Thus, I like the Seahawks (though the sharps disagree) and I’m going to wager three units on them. As for the line, there are some choices. BetUS has +1 -110. 5Dimes has PK +100. Bovada has +1.5 -115. Of those three, PK +100 is the best one.


    The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
    The Falcons are coming off a big win and are now a public underdog versus a team that is being told that it’s done because Richard Sherman is out for the year.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    The Falcons are a slight public dog.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 56% (44,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Matt Ryan is 16-7 ATS in night games.
  • Seahawks are 20-8 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.
  • Seahawks are 42-23 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Russell Wilson is 15-4 ATS in night games.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Falcons 17
    Seahawks PK +100 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$300
    Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Falcons 34, Seahawks 31





    Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Kansas City at NY Giants, Detroit at Chicago, Tampa Bay at Miami, Jacksonville at Cleveland, Baltimore at Green Bay, Washington at New Orleans, Arizona at Houston, LA Rams at Minnesota


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Rams +8.5, Packers +8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220





    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    2024 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 21


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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