NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)

NFL Picks (2019): 19-16-1 (+$1,020)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 16, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-0)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2019 NFL Survivor Pool. We lost close to 100 contestants last week because the Browns and Lions failed to win. Remember, a tie means you lose!

We also have our Weekly Fantasy Football Contest. You can enter for free and win cash prizes!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: You have to love Week 1 overreactions. All I’ve been hearing Tuesday morning and afternoon is, “The Raiders are great! Derek Carr, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller! We can’t be stopped!” Derek Carr, Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller? Are you kidding me? It’s like Oakland fans think that trio is somehow superior to Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce.

Don’t get me wrong. I love the work offensive coordinator/quarterbacks guru Greg Olson has done with Olson, and the presence of Williams helps, as does the improved offensive line. I like Waller, too, as he was one of the MVPs in training camp, but come on. The Raiders are certainly better than last year, but the amount of hype Oakland is getting from its fans is unreal.

That said, I could see the Raiders scoring enough points to stay within striking distance of the Chiefs. Kansas City just permitted Gardner Minshew to go 22-of-25. Granted, this was against a prevent, but the secondary showed an inability to cover D.J. Chark and Chris Conley, which is troubling.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I wrote that I could see the Raiders staying within striking distance of the Chiefs. Then again, I could also see Mahomes going nuts and scoring 50-plus points in this contest.

The Raiders surrendered some deep passes to the Broncos on Monday night, particularly after starting cornerback Gareon Conley was carted off on a stretcher. If Joe Flacco had success airing the ball out to Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, what’s Mahomes going to do on passes to Watkins, who looks completely healthy for the first time in years? Don’t forget about Kelce, who will be going up against a linebacking corps that can’t cover.

The Chiefs may not be able to run the ball as well as they’d like, but I have to imagine that both LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams will hit big plays as receivers out of the backfield. Again, Oakland’s linebackers can’t cover, so both backs will present a major problem for the Raiders.

RECAP: I can make an argument for both sides in this game. Both my spread and DVOA says this line is too high, and there’s a ton of action on the Chiefs. Conversely, the Raiders are playing on a short work week and could be flat after such an emotional victory. Plus, the computer model says Kansas City -11 is the correct spread.

I was going back and forth on this game, but I’m going to trust the computer model, as well as my instinct that the Raiders may not be able to match their Monday night emotional outburst.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounced on the Raiders, dropping this line to +7. I don’t have a strong opinion on this matchup, so I would trust the pros if you want to bet this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eric Fisher is questionable with a groin injury, but as I explained in the Packers-Vikings capsule, an injury to one lineman doesn’t bother me. I’d be very concerned if two blockers were hurt. What does worry me is Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury. He practiced fully and will play, but Cam Newton was in a similar situation. All the practice reports surrounding him were positive, yet he hasn’t been the same since hurting his ankle. There’s a chance Mahomes is perfectly fine, but I’m getting the urge to join the sharps and switch my pick to Oakland.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES/UNIT CHANGE: The sharps continue to pound the Raiders. Some Oakland +6.5 lines have shown up. I want to bet on the Raiders after thinking about it. I’m putting two units on them at +7.5 -120 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vegas is taking a beating at the moment with the Patriots and Cowboys easily covering. The Chiefs are another highly bet team, so these early results may not bode well for them. The sharps are on the Raiders, and I like them for two units.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

It’ll be difficult for the Raiders to match the same emotion they had on Monday Night Football.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.
Computer Model: Chiefs -11.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

I can’t imagine what percentage this would be had the Raiders lost Monday night.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 75% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Raiders are 18-38 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Chiefs -8.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Cloudy, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 31
Raiders +7.5 -120 (2 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$240
Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 28, Raiders 10

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)
Line: Rams by 2. Total: 52.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is underway! Emmitt begins his new job as the commissioner of the NFL – just in time for a new threat to arise.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Forgive me for sounding salty here, but the Rams had no business winning in Week 1. Jared Goff was wildly inaccurate and looked like he was rattled by pressure. I was concerned about the Rams’ offensive line, which lost two starters, and it appears as though my worries were validated. The linemen replacing Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan did not perform well in their debuts.

Goff tends to struggle mightily when pressured heavily, and I believe the Saints should be able to get to him frequently in this contest, as they have some talented pass rushers. They sacked the mobile Deshaun Watson six times Monday night, so they’ll be able to get to Goff. I’m not sure if they’ll register six sacks again, but four seems like a reasonable number to expect.

The Rams will have to counter this pressure by pounding the ball with their running backs. The problem there is that Todd Gurley is not getting a full workload. Malcolm Brown had nearly as many touches as Gurley in the opener, which was not surprising, to say the least.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: So far, so good for Erik McCoy! I was concerned about the Saints’ second-round rookie center replacing the retired Max Unger, but McCoy performed well in his debut. He’ll have quite the challenge in his second game, however, as he’ll be tasked with blocking Aaron Donald. Good luck, Erik.

Drew Brees hates interior pressure more than a heavy edge rush, so if McCoy struggles against Donald – and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t – Brees could have trouble maintaining consistent drives at times; at least until the Rams’ defense becomes exhausted like Houston’s stop unit in the second half of the Monday night game.

If Brees is really worried about the pass rush, he’ll make extra use of Alvin Kamara, who looked as explosive as ever against the Texans. We just saw the Rams struggle to contain Christian McCaffrey, so I imagine they’ll have similar issues against Kamara.

RECAP: I have a feeling this is going to be a three-point game, one way or the other. Thus, I’m inclined to take the underdog, but I can’t say I feel good about it.

This seems like a slam dunk to the public, as it’s a revenge game for what occurred in the NFC Championship. However, it’s not like the Rams are just going to roll over and let the Saints win. This is a big game, as it could determine home-field advantage in the playoffs.

It concerns me that the Saints are a public dog, and I also worry about New Orleans’ penchant for beginning every season slowly. Meanwhile, Sean McVay has had more time to prepare for this game than Sean Payton, which can’t be ignored, given how great of a coach McVay is.

Ultimately, I believe Brees will find some way to win. I’m picking the Saints, though I’m doing so without much conviction.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has fallen to +2.5. I didn’t even like the Saints at +3, so I’m not going to bet them – or the Rams at +2.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Facebook friend Luke T. made a great point that I’d like to share with you:

Am I crazy, or do the Rams have the psychological edge in their game against the Saints? Everybody has been talking for the last seven months about how they didn’t earn their way to the Super Bowl, and they’ll set out to prove the entire sports world wrong. Meanwhile, the Saints, who are assuming that they would have won the NFC title game if not for the interference call, might not take this game as seriously since everyone is crowning them as the rightful NFC champions.

I love this point, and I thought about changing my pick to the Rams. Unfortunately, the public is now leaning toward the Rams, but Sean McVay having an extra day to prepare for this game compared to Sean Payton has to be significant. I think I’m going to stick with the Saints because I’m not a fan of the Rams this year – their victory over the Panthers looks much worse now – and so I’d like to stay with my gut instinct on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I really thought about changing this pick, for reasons stated above, but I’m going to stick with it for a non-wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not going to bet this game. Good luck to those who do!

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

This is big-time revenge for the Saints for the NFC Championship loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
Computer Model: Rams -1.
DVOA Spread: Rams -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Saints were a public dog. Now, there’s a slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 58% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Drew Brees is 54-32 ATS as an underdog.

Saints are 1-12 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Cloudy, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Rams 27
Saints +2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 27, Saints 9

Chicago Bears (0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 40.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third entry of my trip to Las Vegas. In this entry, I continue to discuss one of the biggest jerks ever, Mojito Bro.

DENVER OFFENSE: I wrote about this last week when I discussed why I liked the Packers over the Bears in the season opener, but Chicago’s defense isn’t as good as it was in 2018. The team lost stellar slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and safety Adrian Amos; not to mention defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. These are areas that opposing scoring units will be able to exploit.

I have to imagine that Joe Flacco will target Emmanuel Sanders frequently, as Sanders plays in the slot. Flacco should also be able to connect on some downfield throws, just as Aaron Rodgers was able to do at times in the opener.

A big factor for the Broncos will be Ja’Wuan James’ availability. James suffered an injury early Monday night, and his absence was enormous. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to suit up this week, which could cause some problems against Chicago’s pass rush. That said, it’ll help that the Broncos will have an entire week to make this adjustment, rather than a few seconds during live game action.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It was hardly a surprise that Mitchell Trubisky struggled so much last Thursday. He has great talent, but he can’t get his mechanics correct. He constantly throws off his back foot, and his accuracy suffers as a result.

This is Trubisky’s major weakness. Do you know who happens to know this, as well as Trubisky’s other flaws? Fangio! He’ll be coaching against his former team, which will be a huge advantage for the Broncos. He’ll be able to put his players in position to force Trubisky into plenty of mistakes.

Of course, the Broncos may not need much help if the Bears continue to do stupid things on offense. This involves giving Mike Davis carries over talented rookie David Montgomery. A talented rookie runner just gashed Denver’s defense. If Matt Nagy was watching football Monday night, perhaps he learned a lesson that it’s OK to give your talented rookie running back a full workload.

RECAP: I love the Broncos this week, and one of the primary reasons is something I mentioned already. Fangio has great insight into Chicago’s roster. His knowledge should provide his team with a huge advantage in this matchup.

That, however, is just one aspect of this game that favors Denver. Another is this spread. My calculated line is Denver -1. That’s exactly what the Westgate advance spread was. Yet, because of one fluky Monday night result where the Raiders drowned the Broncos in an emotional victory, this line has moved to Chicago -3. Getting the key number of three is colossal with the Broncos as a home dog.

Despite this insane line shift, the public is pounding the Bears. Nearly 90 percent of the action is on Chicago. That’s insane! I can’t even believe it. Ninety percent of the public is betting on Trubisky as a road favorite. Is this real life!?

On top of all that, the Broncos will be playing for pride. They were absolutely embarrassed on national TV by one of the worst teams in the NFL. They simply didn’t match the Raiders’ emotions, so this is going to be a high-energy game for them.

With the spread, motivational, matchup and Vegas edges all favoring Denver, this is an easy five-unit pick, assuming we can get a clean Denver +3 -110. I wouldn’t mind +3 -120, though that’s not ideal. Anything worse than that would require a lower unit count.

TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE/PICK LOCKED IN: I mentioned on our picks podcast…

…That I was worried about the sharps coming in on the Broncos. This line is +2.5 at the sharper books (Pinnacle, CRIS.) BetUS has +3 -115 listed, so I want to get in on that now before it goes away.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This was a nice spread to lock in. If you missed out on +3 -115, you can still get +3 -120 at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is somehow going to be the hottest game of the week, save for Patriots-Dolphins, so I wonder if the Broncos will be smart and choose to wear their white jerseys. At any rate, there’s a chance Bryce Callahan and Todd Davis will play, which would be a nice boost for the Broncos.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This is another pick that was great to lock in early. However, I still like the Broncos enough at +2.5 to pick them in the Supercontest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Bryce Callahan or Todd Davis for the Broncos, which is a bummer, but I still like them a lot.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos were embarrassed on national TV, so this is their chance to play in a statement game.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.
Computer Model: Bears -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Wow, there is a ton of money coming in on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 70% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Bears are 19-10 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Broncos are 22-12 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Bears -2.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 91 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Bears 13
Broncos +3 -115 (5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$500
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 16, Broncos 14

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

I’m going to devote this section to promoting things from myself, my friends and my readers. I said last week that I’m in the process of writing my book. It’s complete, and I’m having the cover designed now.

This week, I’d like to promote my cousin’s book, Uber Tales, which you can purchase on Amazon via the link.

If you’re looking to become a better Uber driver, you should give that a read. He also wrote some hilarious Uber driver stories that are worth checking out. One warning is that English is not his natural language, so there are some grammatical errors in there. However, if you’re a fan of Emmitt-isms, you might enjoy that aspect of the book.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It took the Eagles a half, but they finally were able to move the chains effectively against the Redskins. They sputtered early, but a deep connection to DeSean Jackson toward the end of the second quarter completely turned things around. A 17-0 deficit quickly became a 32-20 advantage before a dreaded Washington back-door cover with six seconds remaining. Goodbye, three units, it was nice knowing you!

Atlanta’s defense won’t put forth much resistance against the Eagles. They have no pass rush to speak of. Carson Wentz should have all the time in the world to find his many talented weapons. Cornerback Isaiah Oliver, starting across from Desmond Trufant, had an atrocious 2019 debut, and I can’t imagine things getting much better for him in this contest. Wentz will almost certainly attack him relentlessly.

Then again, Wentz can just give the ball to one of his skilled running backs and let them do all the work. Year after year, the Falcons’ run defense has been a train wreck, and 2019 doesn’t appear to be any different.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: As bad as the Falcons’ defense is, we haven’t even gotten to the crux of why they’re horrible this season. They can’t block whatsoever! They couldn’t keep Matt Ryan protected against the Redskin backups in the preseason. This was eye-opening to me, and it’s why I picked Minnesota last week before foolishly switching to Atlanta.

I don’t know what happened to Jake Matthews and Alex Mack, but they look like they’ve aged 50 years. Meanwhile, guard Chris Lindstrom has been placed on injured reserve. The right side of the Falcons’ offensive line is horrific. So, with all that in mind, I have no idea how they’re going to keep Philadelphia’s amazing defensive line out of the backfield. Ryan won’t have much time to throw, while Devonta Freeman won’t find any running lanes to roam through.

The one edge the Falcons have on this side of the ball is Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley going up against a troubled secondary that allowed Vernon Davis and Terry McLaurin to make big plays. Of course, none of this will matter if Ryan has zero time to locate Jones and Ridley downfield.

RECAP: The Falcons have some things going for them in this game. I expect them to play with more energy than the Eagles, as they’ll want revenge for the 2017 playoff loss, as well as the defeat in the opener last year. Also, the public is pounding the Eagles. This is a nationally televised game, so the books will take a major loss if Philadelphia covers.

That said, I just can’t get to the Falcons. They’re terrible, as they can’t block or play any sort of defense. So, with that in mind, this spread is way too low. I made this line Philadelphia -3.5, and that was even shy of the computer model’s projection of Philadelphia -5.

I’d consider taking the Falcons at +4 and even betting them at +6, but as long as the spread is less than that, I’ll be on the Eagles for a non-wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s so much action on the Eagles in a national TV game. The house will lose lots of money if Philadelphia covers, and yet I can’t bring myself to pick the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t really have anything new to say about this game. I’m still on the Eagles for zero.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks like there’s some sharp money coming in on the Falcons. I’m not sure why. This team couldn’t block the Redskin backups in the preseason, and they looked even more pathetic in Week 1. I may talk myself into a bet on the Eagles on Sunday evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vegas action has evened out a bit, though there’s sharp money coming in on the Falcons. I disagree with the pros on this one, as I don’t trust the Falcons to block the Eagles. This spread is way off as well; Philadelphia should be -3.5 per my numbers, while the computer model says this line should be -5. I’m a bit concerned about the Falcons’ motivational edge, but I trust the Eagles enough to cover this line. I’m actually going to put two units on Philadelphia. The best line I see right now is -1 -105 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Falcons will be motivated to get up for the Eagles because of their recent playoff loss to them (plus the season opener in 2018.)

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Eagles -5.
DVOA Spread: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

There won’t be a rush to bet Atlanta.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 19-10 ATS in night games.

Falcons are 26-15 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 41 instances.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 31, Falcons 24
Eagles -1 -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$210
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 24, Eagles 20

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)
Line: Browns by 6.5. Total: 45.5.
Monday, Sept. 16, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the horrible city of New York, where the Cleveland Indians will battle the New York Jets! Guys, New York sucks because it’s not as good as my city of Philadelphia, but I’m excited to be here for once because we have a treat in seeing the Browns quarterback, Maker Bayfield! Emmitt, do you agree that Bayfield is the best quarterback in the NFL except for anyone who used to be on the Eagles?

Emmitt: Emmitt, we gotta look at Baker Masonfield in two light. For first light, Baker the same name as the guy who, uhh, make thing with food. I forgetted what this action call, but it begin with the number “B.” Whenever I hear Baker Masonfield name, I get real hungry and I want to bake thing.

Reilly: Emmitt, did you just refer to yourself, or do you think my name is Emmitt? And the word you were looking for is bake. You said it yourself in a later sentence.

Emmitt: You really confuse me right now, so maybe you should asks another guy question.

Reilly: Very well, let’s move on to our other former idiot Cowboy. Jason Wicken, what do you think about Maker Bayfield?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Maker Bayfield is a real good quarterback. Do you know why Maker Bayfield is a real good quarterback, Tom? I’ll tell you why, Joe. It’s because he’s real good as a passer. When you have a quarterback, and he’s real good, and he’s real good as a passer, you have a quarterback who’s real good because he’s real good at throwing the ball, guys.

Reilly: Wow, that’s some great analysis. You said nothing in six sentences, and who the hell are Tom and Joe? Tolly, please save us here. What do you think about Maker Bayfield?

Tollefson: Kevin, I think you mean Baker Mayfield. I know that because I sometimes pretend to be Baker Mayfield. I approach women in bars and tell them that I’m Baker Mayfield. When they say I’m lying, I tell them to look it up on their phones. Then, when they’re searching on Google, I strangle them and carry their corpses back to my apartment. I then dress them in slutty clothing and pretend that they’re cooking and cleaning for me.

Reilly: Thanks, Tolly. You’re such a lady’s man. I’d try your tactics, but mother says I’m too young to talk to girls even though I’m going to be 70 in a few years. Speaking of mother, the man who married mother is one of our sideline reporters this year. What do you think about Baker Mayfield, new daddy?

Cutler: Never heard of him. Back to you.

Reilly: New daddy, what do you mean? It’s your job to hear about people! You can’t sleep all day now that you’re broadcasting!

Cutler: Zzzzzzz… Huh, what? Wake me up in an hour.

Reilly: New daddy, come on! You’ll be fired if you keep sleeping!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by fired. You have the word fire, which means a hot thing that burns you. The past tense of fire is fired, because there’s a letter “D” at the end of it. When you add a “D” to the end of most words, you get the past tense of a word. This doesn’t always work, but I do it all the time just to hedge my bets.

Wolfley: DAN, I HEDGE MY BETS AS WELL. FOR INSTANCE, WHEN A FORK WITH PIG EARS AND AN ELEPHANT SNOUT APPROACHES ME, I KEEP A FIREARM AT CLOSE HAND JUST IN CASE THIS FORK WITH PIG EARS AND AN ELEPHANT SNOUT TURNS OUT TO BE A SPOON WITH PIG EARS AND AN ELEPHANT SNOUT DISGUISED AS A FORK WITH PIG EARS AND AN ELEPHANT SNOUT BECAUSE WE KNOW HOW MUCH MORE DANGEROUS A SPOON WITH PIG EARS AND AN ELEPHANT SNOUT HAPPENS TO BE.

Reilly: What are you talking about? Let’s go down to our other sideline reporter, Herm Edwards.

Herm: I-

Reilly: Just kidding! No one wants to listen to that idiot. But will no one agree with me that Baker is a great player?

Charles Davis: Kevin, you seem to be interested in talking about baking this morning. That seems very progressive of you, Kevin. Let me ask you, Kevin, do you do a lot of baking at home, Kevin?

Reilly: No, mother does all the baking. She says I’m too young to learn how to cook.

Charles Davis: Guys, let’s talk about how much of a pansy Kevin is, guys. Guys, Kevin is a pansy, guys. He lives at home with his mother, guys. He has Eagles toys in his room, guys. His mother makes his food, guys. He’s still home-schooled, guys. He can’t talk to women, guys. He rubs his mother’s feet, guys. He craves attention from his new daddy even though his new daddy doesn’t know who he is, guys. Does anyone know of another way Kevin is a pansy, guys? I’ll give you a $5,000 prize if you answer correctly, guys.

Tollefson: He’s a pansy because he’s a virgin! Everyone knows that if you’re a virgin, you should force yourself on the first attractive woman you see!

Charles Davis: That is correct, Tolly! Well, maybe not about the rape part, but here is your $5,000 prize!

Reilly: WHAT!? THIS IS F***ING BULLS**T! I TRIED FOR SO MANY TIMES AND I NEVER GOT ANYTHING RIGHT, AND THE REASON I HAVEN’T TOUCHED A WOMAN IS BECAUSE I’M NOT OLD ENOUGH BECAUSE MOTHER SAID SO, A**HOLE! YOU’LL PAY FOR THIS, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU’LL REGRET YOU NEVER GAVE ME THE $5,000 BECAUSE I’D BE BUYING SO MANY EAGLES TOYS RIGHT NOW WITH MY MONEY!!! We’ll be back after this!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns were crowned offseason champions, but as is usually the case when the media and public proclaim a franchise the winners of the spring and summer, that team finds a way to disappoint. Cleveland did more than disappoint; it humiliated itself in a premier spotlight game where CBS sent Jim Nantz and Tony Romo to broadcast it. The Browns were stomped by an opponent that isn’t even that good, with Tennessee winning, 43-13.

The signs weren’t exactly there for a 30-point defeat, but anyone paying attention to the Browns’ preseason woes recognized that there was trouble afoot. The Browns really struggled to pass protect, which wasn’t a surprise, given that they traded Pro Bowl guard Kevin Zeitler to the Giants in the offseason. Baker Mayfield played woefully behind his lackluster blocking group in August, though the excuse could have been made that he didn’t have Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry at his disposal.

Well, there are no excuses now, and I’m wondering how the Browns will block the Jets’ great defensive line. New York has a stellar defense that should be able to defend Cleveland, assuming that star linebacker C.J. Mosley is on the field. The Jets blew a 16-0 lead in the fourth quarter in the opener, which coincided with Mosley’s groin injury that caused him to miss the entire fourth quarter. The Jets sport a completely different defense with Mosley on the field, especially given that fellow linebacker Avery Williamson is injured. Mosley’s status will be crucial in determining who covers this game. The early scuttlebutt is that Mosley will be able to suit up.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like Mayfield, Sam Darnold is a second-year quarterback who struggled in the opener. He was battling a much tougher defense than Mayfield, but that still doesn’t excuse some of his poorly thrown passes, particularly to Robby Anderson. Darnold also had several throws batted at the line of scrimmage, which was discouraging.

This matchup won’t get any easier for Darnold, at least on paper. The Browns sport one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and the Jets have some issues blocking. Darnold was constantly under pressure against the Bills, and I imagine the same thing will happen in this contest.

One way the Jets can move the chains is by getting the ball to Le’Veon Bell. The star running back looked excellent in his Jets debut last week, and the Browns have some liabilities in the middle of their defense for him to exploit.

RECAP: Mosley’s status will be huge for this game. If he can play, I love the Jets for a big wager.

This spread is ridiculous. What have the Browns done to be favored by three on the road? I actually have the Jets slotted ahead of the Browns in my NFL Power Rankings, so I made this spread New York -3.5. I’m not alone in this, as the DVOA line is New York -3.

The Jets don’t just have the spread edge. They own the Vegas edge, as tons of public money is coming in on the Browns. You could argue that they have the motivational edge as well, as they’ll be playing with lots of energy for their first Monday Night Football home game in a few years.

I’m going with four units on the Jets for the time being. This will drastically change if Mosley is ruled out, but if he plays, I love the home dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Phew, I almost locked this in yesterday! If you haven’t heard, Sam Darnold is out with mono, while Le’Veon Bell is undergoing an MRI on his shoulder. This spread has shot up to Cleveland -6.5, so congratulations if you bet the -2.5 already. I’m going to pencil in the Jets at +6.5 for now, but I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets are a mess. Not only is Sam Darnold out, C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams will be missing as well, while Le’Veon Bell is questionable. The Jets won’t have a functional defense without Mosley and Avery Williamson, as we saw when Buffalo outscored them 17-0 in the fourth quarter. Despite all the public action on the Browns, I’m going to take them for zero units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public is pounding Cleveland, and there’s no sign of sharp money on the Jets. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line hit -7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns are not as good as people think they are. There’s so much money on them. There’s no value with this spread. However, I’m picking the Browns because the Jets are just missing far too many players. This is non-wager for me.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
This is the first Monday night home game for the Jets in years, so this could be an emotional outburst of sorts for them, especially against the media- and public-crowned Super Bowl champion.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -3.
Computer Model: Browns -7.
DVOA Spread: Jets -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

People aren’t ready to give up on the Browns yet.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 76% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Browns are 7-3 ATS as road favorites.

Jets are 19-7 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 26 instances.

Opening Line: Browns -1.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind..

Week 2 NFL Pick: Browns 30, Jets 20
Browns -6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 23, Jets 3

week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
Buccaneers at Panthers, 49ers at Bengals, Chargers at Lions, Vikings at Packers, Colts at Titans, Patriots at Dolphins, Bills at Giants, Seahawks at Steelers, Cowboys at Redskins, Cardinals at Ravens, Jaguars at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks

Teaser: Lions +7.5, Broncos +8 (2 Units) – I like both teams to win outright, so I love the idea of going through so many key numbers to get above seven. — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
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2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
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2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
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2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

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2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
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2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
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2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
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2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)