NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2020

New York Jets (0-13) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
Line: Rams by 16.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

Check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Last week, I devised a strategy on how to bet or fade the Rams. Los Angeles games have befuddled me, as that team has been the second-worst for me as far as my results are concerned, with only the Giants being worse. My thesis was that great, defensive-minded coaches would be able to prevail against the Rams because they’d be able to confuse Jared Goff.

I picked the Patriots last Thursday, which turned out to be another incorrect selection. However, I think my premise was correct because Goff struggled despite the victory. He made some nice plays, but also was guilty of some mistakes as well. If he wasn’t able to rely on Cam Akers, he would’ve been in position to commit more errors.

Goff, however, won’t have to worry about that in this contest. The Jets are a complete disaster in every sense. They’re missing players in nearly every area of their defense, and they recently fired their coordinator. The Rams should be able to score at will.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets also have obvious problems on this side of the ball. Sam Darnold had a nice performance against the Raiders in Week 13, but had most of his weapons and blockers at his disposal. That has changed, with Denzel Mims and a couple of offensive linemen now sidelined. Jamison Crowder is banged up as well!

Mims will be back this week, and Crowder will be healthier, but the offensive line will still be down multiple starters. This doesn’t bode well at all against the Rams, and their talented defensive front. Aaron Donald will dominate the interior and force Darnold into many turnovers.

Darnold, unlike Goff, won’t be able to lean on the run. The Rams aren’t as good against the rush compared to the pass – in case you didn’t see the hate mail section – but it doesn’t matter because Adam Gase insists on using Frank Gore. If Gase is really trying to lose football games, this is a great strategy.

RECAP: This is a very high number, but I can’t imagine taking the Jets, considering they have multiple injured offensive linemen against the Rams’ terrific front. Unless the Rams have some surprise injuries on their practice reports, I’ll be betting them for at least a couple of units. I have a slight concern about them potentially looking ahead to the Seahawks, but that’s countered by Sean McVay having extra time to prepare for this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Robert Woods missed Wednesday’s practice, but that doesn’t bother me. I would only consider a pick change if both Woods and Cooper Kupp were out, but it’s not like there’s news on the latter.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets will be a bit healthier than they were last week, but they’ll still be down too many players. This includes two offensive linemen, which will be very problematic against the Rams’ great defensive front. I’m still on the Rams, but I’m not betting this game because of my dubious track record concerning the Rams.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I can’t see myself betting this game for reasons stated above. There are just better options.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury updates of note, and there’s no sharp action on this game. There’s a -16.5 line available at Bookmaker, but that won’t convince me to bet the Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Dec. 20, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 continues! The congressmen plan on how to destroy Emmitt after Gretchen Umbridge’s demise. Meanwhile, the giant bear arrives in America.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Jalen Hurts played better last week than Carson Wentz has for most of the season. It still made no sense to select him in the second round, given the massive contract Philadelphia gave to Wentz just before that. However, things have changed because Wentz is broken. It’s unclear what’s happened with him, whether it’s mental, something personal, or perhaps an undisclosed injury, but he needed to be benched.

Hurts gives the Eagles a nice element to bail out the offensive line. While Wentz was mobile, he was not the running threat Hurts is. Philadelphia’s offensive line is so abysmal that it needed Hurts’ legs to avoid the front surrendering countless sacks. Hurts’ presence already has also improved Miles Sanders’ ability to find running lanes.

That said, unlike the Saints, the Cardinals will have some tape on Hurts. They don’t have great defensive personnel, so they may not be able to take full advantage of that, but Arizona will at least have something. We know that the Cardinals will be able to pressure Hurts because of all the injuries up front, so that’s at least one thing we know.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Something we didn’t know last week was Kyler Murray’s health. Murray hadn’t scrambled since going down with a shoulder injury in the first half of the second matchup versus Seattle. The Cardinals’ offense sputtered as a result, but everything changed against the Giants. There was a hint that it would because Murray was no longer on the injury report, and sure enough, he was off and running against the Giants’ defense.

Murray will be able to run circles around the Eagles’ pedestrian and injury-ravaged linebacking corps, and he’ll also have plenty of success connecting with his receivers. The Eagles, who already struggled against the pass, lost Darius Slay and Rodney McLeod to injury last week. McLeod is out for the year, while Slay could miss this contest with a concussion. If so, Murray will be throwing against practice squad-caliber defensive backs.

The Eagles are much better against the run than the pass, but the Cardinals can use their running backs well as receivers out of the backfield to compensate that. Thus, it’s difficult to imagine Philadelphia doing well against Arizona’s offense.

RECAP: The Cardinals look like the obvious play to me. With Murray healthy again, they can go back to blowing out bad opponents. They’ve crushed the other NFC East teams, beating them by a combined score of 94-32. I don’t see why this matchup would be any different.

If the Eagles were healthier, I’d give them a chance. However, they’re down far too many players. They were able to win last week because the Saints took them for granted with the Chiefs on the horizon, but with the Cardinals needing to win, they’ll be focused.

I was hoping the -5.5 opening line would stick around, but the sharps have bet this across a key number of -6. I still think this line is too low, however, even at -6.5, as seen in some sportsbooks. I’ll probably end up betting a few units on the Cardinals if some of Philadelphia’s new injured players are ruled out for this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Eagles lost yet another offensive lineman, with Jack Driscoll being placed on injured reserve. Driscoll was playing well behind Lane Johnson, so Jalen Hurts’ blocking will be even worse this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Darius Slay has been ruled out, which is huge. The Eagles are now down two cornerbacks and their best safety against a great receiving corps. They also lost another offensive lineman, as mentioned on Thursday. Arizona should be able to win this game easily.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks like some sharp money is coming in on the Eagles, as this line moved down to +6 at Bookmaker. This could disappear, so I wouldn’t blame you for locking it in now. I’m going to wait and see what happens. Check back around 3:30 Eastern for updates!

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was holding out hope for a better -6 line, and we’ve gotten one. There’s a -6 -110 line available at FanDuel, which is nice. There’s mixed sharp action on this game; they bet the Cardinals earlier in the week at -5 and -5.5, but some pro money came in on the Eagles at +6.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Dec. 20, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called The Voting Sticker and the Lockdown Hypocrites.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes had his worst game of the year last week, and yet the Chiefs still led 30-10 with possession in the second half! Mahomes was guilty of three interceptions and a 30-yard sack that set up the Dolphins with a quick score, resulting in an early 10-0 deficit. However, with Mahomes being the amazing player he is, he was able to lead a comeback and still nearly covered the spread.

Mahomes has a tough matchup once again, especially if Mitchell Schwartz can’t play. The Chiefs have been down multiple offensive linemen – Schwartz and Kelechi Osemele – since Week 6, and that would explain why they’ve won just two games by double digits since then. Outside of the injury-ravaged Bills, Buccaneers and Dolphins, they haven’t played any tough opponents, and no, I’m not counting the Raiders, who have imploded since that electric Sunday night affair.

Unless the Chiefs get back Schwartz, they’ll have some trouble blocking the Saints, who will be able to defend Mahomes’ top weapons pretty well. I’m not saying the Chiefs’ offense will be completely shut down, but the Saints will be able to do enough to limit them a bit to give themselves a chance to win.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s unclear if the Saints will have Drew Brees under center this week. Brees has a chance to return, but New Orleans may decide to keep him sidelined until the playoffs, just to make sure that he’s as healthy as possible for the playoff run. Besides, with games coming up against the Panthers, Titans (home) and Bears, the Packers don’t seem likely to lose again.

Either way, the Saints should be able to move the chains well. We just saw Tua Tagovailoa have a great fourth quarter when connecting to Mike Gesicki and backup receivers, so either Brees and Taysom Hill figure to thrive when throwing to Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara.

Speaking of Kamara, he and Latavius Murray – and Hill, if he starts – figure to run well on the Chiefs, who have some issues in that regard.

RECAP: The Chiefs have barely been beating bad teams since losing Schwartz. They’ve barely survived the Panthers, Broncos (second matchup) and Raiders. Perhaps the toughest team they’ve battled since then, the Buccaneers, managed to keep the margin to within three points.

I believe the Chiefs winning by three is the most likely result of this game, barring Schwartz’s return from injury. With that in mind, getting the hook is appealing. It’s not, however, appealing enough to bet this game, barring unforeseen injuries.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not sure how serious this injury is, but Eric Fisher missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a back issue. If he’s out, the Chiefs could be down three offensive linemen against New Orleans’ excellent front. That would convince me to bet the Saints.

SATURDAY NOTES: Don’t look now, but the Chiefs’ offensive line could be much healthier! Mitchell Schwartz is eligible to come off injured reserve, while Eric Fisher practiced fully on Friday. I’m not banking on Schwartz to return, but if he does, I may bet the Chiefs. Either way, I’m considering switching to Kansas City. It seems like Drew Brees is being rushed back in a panic move, and I don’t expect him to be quite himself just yet, especially given that Michael Thomas won’t be available.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps like the Saints, but the sportsbooks seem unwilling to move this line off +3. If we can get Kansas City -2.5, I may consider betting the Chiefs for a small wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about betting the Chiefs for a unit with -2.5 -116 being available at Bookmaker, but I’m not going to do it. There’s a ton of sharp money on the Saints, and this afternoon has been brutal, thanks to the Redskins’ back-door cover and the Patriots not being interested in stopping the run at all against the Dolphins.

Cleveland Browns (9-4) at New York Giants (5-8)
Line: Browns by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 20, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: This game was flexed to Sunday night because the Giants suddenly have a chance of winning the NFC East. If the Redskins lose to the Seahawks, they can move into first place with a victory over Cleveland.

The Giants have gotten recent wins with their defense, as they’ve thrived in the trenches. Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence have been amazing, dominating in matchups against weaker defenses. However, they’ll meet their match in this game, as the Browns have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. Cleveland’s front should be able to keep Baker Mayfield clean, allowing him to move the chains well on most drives.

More prominently, the Browns’ terrific offensive line will blast open running lanes for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Giants tend to stop the run very well because of their two monsters in the trenches, but Cleveland should have some success on the ground, creating easier opportunities for Mayfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Another reason the Giants were winning prior to the Arizona game was that Daniel Jones – and Colt McCoy in the Seattle victory – was taking care of the football. Jones’ biggest issue in his near-two years of playing in the NFL has been his dubious ball security. He did well to correct that for a few games.

Unfortunately for the Giants, Jones greatly regressed in that regard against the Cardinals. Jones was turnover machine, allowing the Cardinals to win easily. Perhaps he’ll be able to rebound, but my money is on him struggling for two reasons. First, Jones is banged up. He has a bum hamstring, so that could be hindering his ability. There’s a chance he’ll be healthier in this contest, but soft-tissue injuries tend to linger.

Second, the Giants don’t exactly have the best offensive line, so the front has a very difficult matchup in this contest against Myles Garrett and the rest of the Cleveland defensive linemen. Garrett and company figure to dominate the trenches, forcng more turnovers from Jones.

RECAP: I’ll be rooting for the Giants because I have an 18/1 prop on them to win the NFC East, but I can’t say I’m bullish in the wake of Jones’ hamstring injury. If you were to tell me he definitely will be 100 percent for this contest, I’d give the Giants a chance to win, or at least cover this spread. However, there’s a better probability that Jones will continue to be hindered by his hamstring, and if so, the Browns should be able to win easily, especially if Denzel Ward returns from injury.

I will definitely be monitoring the practice reports for any news on Jones’ hamstring, but for now, I’m going to side with the Browns. That could easily change later in the week, but for now, this will be a zero-unit pick because the Browns could be deflated off their last-second loss to the rival Ravens on Monday night.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It doesn’t sound like Daniel Jones will play. James Bradberry may miss this game with a minor illness. R.I.P. 18/1 prop!

SATURDAY NOTES: Colt McCoy will start this game, which might be for the best, given how an injured Daniel Jones performed last week. Meanwhile, there’s some injury news concerning the Browns. Cleveland won’t have Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller available, but there’s at least a chance Denzel Ward will return. I may end up betting the Giants if Ward is out and this line is above +6.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line keeps climbing. We might see +7 at some point, which would be a bet for me on the Giants if Denzel Ward is sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wanted to bet the Giants if Denzel Ward was sidelined, but Ward is active, unfortunately. I still would take the Giants, as this line is inflated. The best spread I see is +6.5 -105 at Bovada. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1)
Line: Steelers by 14.5. Total: 40.5.
Monday, Dec. 21, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Cincinnati, where we have a game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Tigers! Guys, no one really cares about this game, so I have a surprise for everyone today! Everyone is going to talking about this great surprise!

Emmitt: Prude, I hope it are not the same surprise you give us last Chrispmas time. Last time, you have Santana Claus here and you sit on him’s lap and ask for a Nick Folds bubble head doll and then you cry when he say you too oldness to sit on his lap.

Reilly: Emmitt, that was a traumatic time for me! How dare you bring it up!? No, this surprise is more monumental, though I’d say Nick Foles bobble heads are pretty monumental. The producers told me that we’re going to have our first female football announcer! I can’t talk to her because of Mother’s rules, so I will let Tara Muller take it away! Let’s hear Tara Muller’s great football announcing!

Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! Football is great! I like football so much because it’s a fun sport, and it’s fun to watch football and play football!

Reilly: Wow, that was great announcing, you guys! We let a woman do announcing, and she did a great job! This was not a publicity stunt at all!

Tollefson: Hey Tara, can you please breathe into this damp cloth? I promise nothing bad will happen.

Reilly: Tolly, how dare you try to kidnap Tara Muller!? Don’t you realize how much of a national treasure she is!?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about Tara Muller. Tara Muller is a great announcer. That’s because she announces, and she’s great. You see, she is an announcer because she announces, and she does it greatly, so she’s a great announcer because she announces and does it greatly. Because she’s great at announcing which makes her a great announcer. What makes her a great announcer is that she’s an announcer who announces and is great at announcing because she’s so great at announcing.

Reilly: You know, Jason Witten, I used to think you’re my enemy, but now you’re my friend! Anyone who says anything bad about Tara Muller will be canceled!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by Tara Muller. Tara Muller should win an award for Best Announcer for Football Award. I know Don Tollefson was up for this, as was Ron Wolfley, but Tara Muller deserves it with her great announcing.

Wolfley: DAN, IT’S TOTALLY OK! I WILL YIELD MY AWARD TO TARA MULLER BECAUSE SHE’S A GREAT ANNOUNCER. THE BEST ANNOUNCER I HEARD PREVIOUSLY WAS A GRASSHOPPER WITH THREE EYELIDS AND A MUSTACHE, BUT TARA MULLER HAS SURPASSED HIM.

Reilly: I thought so! What do you think, New Daddy? Do you think Tara Muller is the best football announcer who has ever existed?

Cutler: Who? Sarah Fuller? She’s kinda hot.

Alyssa Milano: WHHHAAATTTT!?!?!?!?!?!? Ex-ca-use me! How dare you call women hot!?!?!?! That is so sexist of you to judge women by their looks instead of their great football announcing skills!!!! I was going to call 9-1-1 on you, but now I’m going to call in the national guard!!!!

Station Employee: Excuse me, I’d like to announce the Best Announcer for Football Award winner. It’s Tara Muller!

Reilly: Hooray! Now we can all celebrate Tara Muller’s great achievements and ignore other female announcers in the future who will do a better job!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about terrible football announcers, Kevin. Let’s discuss some terrible announcers, Kevin. How about Phil Simms, Kevin? He was very boring, Kevin. What about Joe Buck, Kevin? He’s only an announcer because of nepotism, Kevin. Let’s discuss Steve Levy, Kevin. Steve Levy is so woke that he hasn’t slept in years, Kevin. Then there’s Jason Witten, Kevin. You’re friends with him this week, but you’ll be enemies with him soon because you have the temperament of a 3-year-old, Kevin. We can chat about Troy Aikman, Kevin. He’s so boring that he could put Steve Levy to sleep, Kevin. And last but probably least is Tara Muller, Kevin. She barely said anything, Kevin, and yet she’s being celebrated for no good reason, Kevin.

Reilly: I’LL SHOW YOU A GOOD REASON, YOU A**HOLE! TARA MULLER IS THE BEST ANNOUNCER EVER, AND WE MUST CELEBRATE HER! THAT’S IT, YOU’RE CANCELED! I’VE CANCELED YOU, YOU SEXIST PIG! YOU WILL BE PUT IN THE GUILLOTINE AS SOON AS MOTHER LETS ME BUY ONE! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I imagine Ben Roethlisberger is waking up in a cold sweat each night with the same horrible dream: He throws a perfect pass to a receiver of his, and that receiver drops the ball. Unfortunately for the Steelers, this has been a reality the past three weeks. They had 13 total drops in the two games ahead of the Sunday night affair, and Diontae Johnson went on to drop two balls in the first pair of drives of the game.

At some point, this has to stop. Perhaps a battle against the Bengals is what the doctor ordered. Cincinnati can’t defend anything or generate any sort of pressure on the quarterback. This will be a relief for Roethlisberger, especially if he’s missing two offensive linemen in the wake of Matt Feiler’s shoulder injury.

Roethlisberger may not even have to do very much. The Bengals are absolutely dreadful when it comes to defending the run, so James Conner could rebound from Sunday night’s ghastly performance.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The doctor ordered this matchup for the defense as well. The Steelers have had issues defending the pass lately. Alex Smith threw all over their secondary to guys named Steven Sims Jr. and Cam Sims, and then Josh Allen torched them in the second half last week.

Joe Haden missed last week’s game, so his absence would have hurt in this matchup if Joe Burrow were still starting, given the plethora of talent the Bengals have at receiver. However, things are obviously different with Brandon Allen at the helm.

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Allen had some success moving the chains, especially in garbage time. His receivers have matchup advantages they’ll be able to win, and if Pittsburgh isn’t trying very hard in the fourth quarter, the back-door cover will be open.

RECAP: The injury report will determine my selection. If the Steelers have too many players who will miss this game, I’ll pick the Bengals to potentially get the back-door cover. I can’t say I’m too thrilled about it, but I think the Bengals are the right side if the injury report is at least somewhat bleak for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are not playing well right now, so they don’t deserve to be double-digit favorites on the road against anyone. Remember, these very same Steelers nearly lost at Dallas earlier this season, and that’s when they were playing better!

My unit count will be determined by the injury report. I may even switch to the Steelers if everyone’s healthy, so check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’ll see an injury report Thursday, which could help determine where I’ll go with this game. I’m completely 50-50 on it right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ryan Finley will start for Brandon Allen, which would explain the line move across 14. Allen is better than Finley, but I don’t think this spread movement is warranted. With the Steelers down two offensive linemen, I’m tempted to put a couple of units on Cincinnati. However, I’m a bit worried that the Steelers could use this as an opportunity to get back on track following an embarrassing loss.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Believe it or not, the sharps bet the Bengals at +14.5. I’m not as courageous!

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp action on Cincinnati +14.5, while the public is betting the Steelers heavily. I’m going to side with the Bengals because this spread is too high amid Pittsburgh’s offensive line injuries. I can’t bring myself to bet on Ryan Finley, however. If you want to, you can find +14.5 at most sportsbooks. If you like the Steelers, Bookmaker has -14.5 -105 available.