NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)

NFL Picks (2012): 47-58-2 (-$1,220)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 22, 6:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
Line: 49ers by 8. Total: 37.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -8.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): 49ers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): 49ers -7.
Thursday, Oct. 18, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 6 RECAP: I’m definitely happy about how this past week worked out. I went 9-5 at +$1,640. I got slightly lucky with the Cowboys (they completely outplayed Baltimore but needed some breaks to nullify shooting themselves in the foot) and very fortunate with the Seahawks (the Patriots should have covered; at one point, I gave up on Seattle), but that only slightly makes up for all of the crap that happened in Week 5.

I’m glad everything has gone well since that disastrous Week 1. But maybe I should’ve expected that. E-mailer Sumeet G. sent this over:

Pretty awesome stuff, Sumeet. I think I fixed my issues with Week 17 last year because I changed my strategy. I’m also going to approach Week 1 differently next year. But I had no idea I was so bad Week 16. I’ll definitely have to look into that when the time comes.

Now, it’s time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. “The Cardinals are done.” – Tony Kornheiser (though this is kind of nullified by Buffalo’s ineptness).

2. The Cowboys are terrible (from two weeks ago).

3. The Lions are the Lions again (from two weeks ago).

4. “The 49ers are the best team in football.” Almost every NFL analyst on TV said this Monday even though San Francisco has no wins over a team with a winning record.

5. “There’s something wrong with the Packers.” Green Bay should have won in Seattle and blew a 21-3 lead in the Colts for the reasons mentioned above. The team should be 4-1.

Boom. That’s 4-0 if you exclude the Cardinals. Here’s what the media is overreacting to this week:

1. ESPN analysts said that the Steelers were done after that loss to the Titans on Thursday night.

2. Tom Jackson suggested that the Ravens wouldn’t make the playoffs with Ray Lewis gone.

3. For next week, the Philadelphia media is trashing the Eagles. One late-night radio host even suggested that the front office should name Brian Dawkins the head coach.

4. I’d also like to include the Cardinals from last week. Keyshawn Johnson and Cris Carter ranked them last behind St. Louis in the NFC West even prior to the loss to Buffalo.

Let’s see if these teams go at least 2-1 in Week 7.

One last thing, regarding the whole Tuesday-Wednesday schedule change, people have been slightly in favor of Tuesday, but it’s close. One person commented below, “Walt, if you have final thoughts at the end of the week and change your picks and units, why not just post on Tuesdays.”

I’m really just more comfortable doing the picks on Wednesday. I like having the extra day to take a step back, clear my head and then focus on the upcoming games.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: An extra day also helps me with injuries, but it was already pretty evident that 49er left tackle Joe Staley wouldn’t be able to play. Staley suffered a concussion against the Giants, so he was doubtful coming off three days of rest.

Not having Staley could be disastrous for Alex Smith. Chris Clemons has been a monster this year, and he’ll have a huge advantage over Staley’s replacement. Bruce Irvin already had an edge over Anthony Davis on the other side, so Smith will somehow have to throw on Seattle’s elite secondary with defenders breathing down his neck. Good luck with that, Alex.

The 49ers will have to counter Seattle’s pass rush with short, quick throws and an effective ground attack. The Seahawks have the No. 2 run defense in the NFL (3.08 YPC), but San Francisco’s rushing attack is extremely forceful. The Patriots rushed for 88 yards on 26 attempts last week versus Seattle, so the 49ers should be able to muster something slightly better than that.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson was awesome last week. He did a great job of navigating the pocket and finding open receivers downfield. Of course, the Patriots helped out with busted coverages, so the 49ers should have more success defending Seattle’s aerial attack, right?

Well, maybe slightly more success, but not by much. The 49ers’ secondary isn’t very good. Safety Donte Whitner is playing poorly, while corner Carlos Rogers is showing signs of regression. Combine that with the fact that San Francisco isn’t pressuring the quarterback as well this year – Justin Smith also appears to be in decline – and that would be the reason that Eli Manning had so much success last week. Having said that, Seattle’s receivers can’t really get separation like New York’s can, so that should help San Francisco’s cause.

The Seahawks, of course, will attempt to establish Marshawn Lynch. The Giants pounded the 49ers last week, gaining 151 yards on the ground, but San Francisco won’t be as concerned about the opposing quarterback beating them downfield.

RECAP: These teams are about even, but I really like the 49ers because this is a terrible spot for the Seahawks. They have to be worn out, given that this is their fifth game in 25 days. Also, think about all the traveling they’ve done recently. They went to St. Louis, flew back home, played across the country in Carolina, returned back to Seattle to take on the Patriots in an emotional game and now ventured to San Francisco on just three days of rest. That has to be some serious jet lag.

Here are some other things to consider:

1. I mentioned the emotional win versus New England; teams that stage double-digit fourth-quarter comebacks usually struggle the following week (11-22 against the spread the past 10 years).

2. The victory over the Patriots was a close one. Well, road teams coming off close wins as home underdogs tend to absolutely suck in divisional contests the following week.

3. The Seahawks stink in a visiting role. They’re 1-11 against the spread on the road against teams that average 24-plus points per game since 2007.

I’m taking the 49ers for three units. It would be four units if Staley were available.

UNIT CHANGE: I’m dropping this down to two units. I’m really uncomfortable with Staley being out. I don’t know if the 49ers can make adjustments on this with just three days to prepare.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Staley is playing, which is good news. However, the spread has risen to eight, which gives us poor line value because it was seven a couple of days ago. I’m sticking with two units on the 49ers.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
The Seahawks just won an emotional game against the Patriots, but it’s not like they’re not going to get up for the 49ers.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
A slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 64% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Seahawks are 18-34 ATS on the road since 2006.

Seahawks are 1-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

49ers are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

49ers are 13-7 ATS against divisional opponents in the past 20 instances.

Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS following a loss.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 10
49ers -8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 37.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
49ers 1513, Seahawks 6
Recap of this game

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)
Line: Bills by 4. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Bills -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Bills -4.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS RECAP: This is a bloodbath. The sportsbooks continue to slaughter the public. All three highly bet teams – Steelers, Falcons, Patriots – went down in Week 6. That means the public has lost five of six weeks. You have to wonder if the sportsbooks are thinking that some people will continue to bet because they believe the end of the world is coming in two months. I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: So, Chris Johnson doesn’t totally suck after all. CJ2.9YPC transformed into CJ3.3YPC with a strong showing Thursday night against the Troy Polamalu-less Steelers. There’s a good chance he’ll pick up where he left off in this contest. The Bills have the worst run defense in the NFL; they surrendered a combined 505 rushing yards in Weeks 4 and 5 and made someone named William Powell on Arizona’s team look solid.

With CJ3.3YPC running well, Matt Hasselbeck will benefit. He won’t have to be in as many long-yardage situations, which means he won’t commit as many turnovers. I’m sure he’ll still be responsible for one or two, per usual, but Mario Williams, who finally came back to life last week after being called out by his general manager, won’t be as much of a factor.

I don’t have faith in Buffalo’s ability to stop the pass either. The team ranks 25th against aerial attacks (7.8 YPA), while the Titans have a pretty potent receiving corps with Kenny Britt now healthy and Kendall Wright earning more experience each week.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Titans are just as poor defensively as the Bills, so the host will be able to move the chains and put points on the scoreboard just as easily.

Tennessee’s main weakness is in the secondary. There is no cornerback depth, while the safety play has simply been atrocious. Meanwhile, the linebackers have been poor in coverage as well, so Ryan Fitzpatrick figures to have success throwing to both Steve Johnson and Scott Chandler all afternoon – assuming he has time in the pocket, that is. Left tackle Cordy Glenn will be out again, but Chris Hairston has filled in quite admirably. Meanwhile, right guard Kraig Urbik was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so he has a chance of returning to the lineup.

The Titans are much better against the run; they’re 11th in that department, surrendering 3.9 YPC – a figure that should improve now that middle linebacker Colin McCarthy is back in the lineup. Still though, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both very talented, so Buffalo will have some success rushing the ball.

RECAP: Hasselbeck covered (and won) last week, but my Negative Absolute rule still applies. It states to never bet on terrible teams with crappy backup quarterbacks. Hasselbeck can be a turnover machine capable of imploding without a moment’s notice. It’s a shame because I’d like the Titans for a couple of units if Jake Locker were under center. Buffalo will be flat coming off an emotional, overtime victory on the road.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I don’t like either side.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Titans just won an emotional game against the Steelers. They could be a little flat, but they’re underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The public is all over the Bills because this is a strange spread.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 68% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 21-14 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Titans 26
Titans +4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 35, Bills 34

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Vikings -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Vikings -4.

Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Let’s see what they have to say this time:

walt ur a loser. U only talk when you get unlucky. You werent supposed to cover hawks and or cowboys. Lucky fu*k. only complain when stuff goes against you. One good call was packers thats about it.

As opposed to you, a winner, who spends his free time insulting people on the Internet. Man, I wish I could be more like you.

LOL at walt. bro even blind drunk monkeys get lucky sometimes. its a coinflip game, if you play long enough eventually you will just get lucky. but hey chalk it up to skill at betting flips. stick to the numbers. bet dogs…o yeah you did

I don’t understand what this guy is trying to say. Something about drunk monkeys getting lucky?

God, You SUCK Walt…The first 5 weeks I followed your picks..You were 32-44-1 picking against the spread. You lost me thousands…Finally this week I took the advise of your haters and picked all the opposite picks as you..So You FINALLY have a good week and again cost me a boat load..WTF even when your right your wrong..

I don’t understand this. I was +$800 in Weeks 2-5, so why’d you suddenly decide to change in Week 6? You’re either a liar or an idiot. Perhaps a lying idiot.

Walter, I feel sorry for you so I’m gonna lend you my picks. Study harder and stop messin with migelini and johnmoss. Ravens, the Cowboys are a joke. Patriots, I told you before to give any number under 9 and take if over. Cardinals, how will the bills out score anyone with a defense that cannot hold water? Don’t cry and don’t say I didn’t tell you so.

Wait, is it too late to change my Week 6 picks?

Walter has lost his edge and mind.

Dude, I lost my mind years ago. My edge? Apparently not.

Walt you said,”I felt as though I had a very good week in terms of handicapping. No, really. When I’m wrong about a game, I’ll admit it and try to figure out what I did incorrectly. I feel like I screwed up only one Week 5 selection. The other losses were the result of terrible luck.” I disagree. The truth is you cannot judge the NFL correctly. If there is anyone out there that has had success picking games in the NFL, I would like to hear your picks for Sunday. Thanks.

Change your mind yet? If not, I don’t blame you. Like some sort of drunken monkey getting action on the beach, I guess I just got lucky.

Walter Pick of the Month Green Bay??? Give me Houston for every penny I have.

Every penny you have? Oh no.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb is out, which means John Skelton will start. I feel like there are both positives and negatives to this. Skelton will take more deep shots downfield to Larry Fitzgerald. Minnesota’s pass defense is No. 5 (6.3 YPA), but there are some holes in that secondary. For instance, safety Jamarca Sanford isn’t very good in coverage, while nickel corner Josh Robinson has struggled. The downside, however, is that Skelton tends to stare down his receivers. The Vikings could force some turnovers.

Skelton has underrated scrambling ability, so he’ll need to use that if he wants to avoid being sacked at least a half-dozen times. I’m not breaking any news here by saying Arizona’s offensive line is an abomination. Mario Williams, who did nothing all year, recorded two sacks versus the Cardinals, so imagine what Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams are going to accomplish.

The Cardinals will have to keep Minnesota’s pass-rushers at bay by running the ball and keeping Skelton in short-yardage situations. This will prove to be difficult, however. William Powell, replacing an injured Ryan Williams, looked good last week, but won’t find much running room against a defense that hasn’t surrendered more than 63 rushing yards to any opponent (excludes quarterback scrambles) since Week 2.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Cardinals once had a top-10 run defense. Now, they’re No. 20 after surrendering 160 rushing yards to the Bills. So, what happened? Darnell Dockett’s hamstring happened. Dockett, who usually plays at a Pro Bowl level, has struggled immensely the past couple of weeks. Dockett has been limited with this hamstring issue for a while, so perhaps he’ll feel better this Sunday. He’ll need to against Adrian Peterson, whose recovery has simply been remarkable.

Arizona is also dealing with some injury issues in its secondary. Safety Kerry Rhodes, who is having a great season, suffered a back malady against Buffalo. He’s tentatively questionable. Meanwhile, cornerback Greg Toler, whom the coaching staff inserted into the lineup over the struggling William Gay (not that there’s anything wrong with that), missed last week’s contest with a hamstring. He’s also questionable.

The Cardinals will need their two defensive backs available to stop Christian Ponder if Dockett’s not 100 percent. Arizona hasn’t been pressuring the quarterback as much since Dockett got hurt, so Ponder will have all day to throw in short-yardage situations if the three Cardinal defenders’ health doesn’t improve.

RECAP: Arizona is one of the teams I mentioned in the media overreaction section. Everyone thinks the Cardinals are done. They’re not. They’ll definitely bounce back if Dockett, Rhodes and Toler are all healthier. Perhaps they will be. If so, you have to like the line value we’re getting with the visitor. This spread was -4 a week ago and now it’s -6.

It’s also worth noting that the Vikings may not be completely focused for this game. Yes, they’re coming off a loss, but they have to play four days after this contest. Favorites are 1-6 against the spread this year prior to Thursday night affairs.

SURVIVOR PICK: Wow, this is a tough week for survivor. The obvious choice would be the Patriots, but I’ve used them. I’ve also taken the 49ers and Bears. The next-best options are Minnesota and Green Bay. I’m going with the former because one of my rules is not to pick road teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kerry Rhodes is out and Greg Toler is doubtful, but the good news is that Dockett’s probable. I’m still taking the Cardinals for one unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS PART II: I’d like to bump this up to two units now that the spread is seven.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
The Vikings could have one eye on the upcoming Thursday night game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 58% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +7 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (5-1)
Vikings 21, Cardinals 14

Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Colts -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Colts -3.5.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Browns.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He didn’t update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week, but I did find an old conversation that we had in August:

The Real John Moss: waler

Me: John Moss!

The Real John Moss: vick yooung wass cut is misteak

Me: You wouldn’t have cut him?

The Real John Moss: doont bet seaguls this year

Me: Why not?

The Real John Moss: hes very nice qaurterback u wtch seaguls will loose e16 game

Me: why would the seaguls loose 16 game?

The Real John Moss: they cut vick young is on tv

Me: But Young was on the Bills.

The Real John Moss: wat vick young he plays seaguls fast

Me: Well, you’re the expert with the big Web site now.

The Real John Moss: yes is true i waz tryinrg to help u. u will see philly seaguls will loose w/o vick young

Me: Oh, but the Bills also cut Vick Young.

The Real John Moss: then they r idiot young make misteak with dog but he is gud qb. what is in bufflo anyways i am hope they send them 2 virgina beach

Me: What’s in Virginia Beach?

The Real John Moss: beach i give u lesson waltar. beach = hot gurl. bufflo = whale is ironic becuz whale live in ocean

Me: Well, hot gurls live in the ocean too.

The Real John Moss: hmmmm yes mermade

Me: Oh yeah.

The Real John Moss: u r smart man

Me: But you are being unfair to the girls in Buffalo. They are not all whales.

The Real John Moss: how do u kno

Me: I’ve heard stories about one hot girl being from Buffalo.

The Real John Moss: she is fairy tail i bet u beleave in boogy man too buffflo is cold

Me: I’m good friends with the Boogy Man, actually. He uses my fantasy football advice. He lost in the championship last year.

The Real John Moss: let me ask u 1 thing wat better sweater or bikinini

Me: Bikini, of course, but fat chicks can wear bikinis too.

The Real John Moss: mmmm u make gud point

Me: And plus, like it’s cold in Sweden, but Sweden is known for hot chicks.

The Real John Moss: wat is that alo wat is better fat chick in bikinin or sweater

Me: Fat chick in sweater is better.

The Real John Moss: intresting wow i read ram cut jackson smith is stupid. im grand manager i take gronkoski #2

Me: Who’s No. 1?

The Real John Moss: andrre smith or gurl from bufflo is cointflip

Me: I think you’re being unfair to gurl from Buffalo.

The Real John Moss: fine i draft her 2 cheer for u i will draft bengal cheer leeder for myself

Me: You are very kind, John Moss.

There are some hot chicks in Buffalo, despite what the Real John Moss says. Other ones, however, look like this:

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It was pretty surprising that the Browns were able to achieve their first victory of the season without Trent Richardson. The No. 3 overall pick suffered a mysterious, fantasy football-related flank injury, yet Cleveland still found a way to prevail, as Montario Hardesty did a nice job of helping Brandon Weeden move the chains.

Richardson is listed as probable – convenient, now that Pat Shurmur no longer has to play against him in fantasy – and figures to have a breakout performance against the Colts, who just made Shonn Greene look like the second coming of Emmitt Smith. Indianapolis’ run defense went into the tank when Cory Redding suffered a knee injury. He’s not expected to play in this contest, which means Richardson should be able to trample the Colts, just as Greene did.

Indianapolis won’t be able to pressure Weeden either. Robert Mathis has already been ruled out, while Dwight Freeney hasn’t done crap since returning to the lineup from an injury. Weeden will have all of his receivers at his disposal for the first time in a while; Mohamed Massaquoi practiced Wednesday and should be available for the first time since Week 3.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Browns are also getting everyone back on defense. Well, mostly everyone. Phil Taylor’s still on the PUP list, while linebacker Scott Fujita is done for the season (and perhaps career) with a neck injury, but he’s a marginal talent who can be replaced easily. The important thing is that Cleveland’s top three defenders, save for Taylor, will all be on the field for the first time since Week 1 when they limited the Eagles to just one touchdown in the final seconds.

Defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin generates decent pressure up the middle and will force some hurried throws from Andrew Luck, who isn’t protected very well. Luck won’t be able to target Reggie Wayne often because Joe Haden will smother him, just as Antonio Cromartie did last week. D’Qwell Jackson, meanwhile, will take away everything underneath.

If the Colts can’t move the chains aerially, they have no chance of engineering consistent scoring drives because their running game is so ineffective. Donald Brown is out again, and if Vick Ballard couldn’t pick up decent chunks of yardage against the Jets, he probably won’t be able to do so against the Browns.

RECAP: The Browns appear to be the right side. They have mostly everyone healthy, while the Colts, who seem to be in disarray in the wake of Chuck Pagano’s absence, are completely banged up. I think laying 2.5 points with them would be a mistake, though I wouldn’t recommend betting Cleveland either because we’re getting poor line value, as this spread was -4 a week ago.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line keeps dropping, but the Colts have lots of injuries. I’m going to switch my pick to Indianapolis because this spread was -4 a week ago, but I’m not betting a single dollar on this contest.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Some money coming in on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 69% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Browns 17
Colts -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 17, Browns 13

Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at Houston Texans (5-1)
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Texans -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Texans -4.5.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’ve gotten plenty of e-mails asking me about my take on QB Dog Killer owning a dog. Yeah, in case you haven’t heard, QBDK confirmed that he has a dog. This is possible because he’s no longer on probation.

My thoughts? I think it’s fantastic. QBDK has served his time. He has every right to own a dog. You know, I think he should own more than one dog. Nay, I think he should own more than five dogs. No. More than 10. How about 20 or 30 or 40? I think 64 dogs would be best. He could then slot them in four brackets, seeding them 1-16, and have them fight each other. Then, he could drown or electrocute them. It would be awesome, and everyone would win. I love Sarcastaball. It’s so much better than football.

In all seriousness, this proves that QBDK is a f***ing a**hole in addition to being a sick psychopath. Yes, he can legally own a dog now, but the fact that he decided to do this is essentially spitting in the face of everyone who had an issue with what he did in the first place. He’s showing no remorse whatsoever. He doesn’t care what he did, and anyone believes that he’s even 0.1 percent sorry about what he was guilty of is a fool. Andy Reid deserves what he’s getting for bringing in this scumbag.

2. Speaking of the Eagles signing QBDK, I got a kick out of something I learned about his contract from a reliable accounting source. As you may know, QBDK signed a $100 million contract prior to the 2011 season. He made a big deal out of this because he was the first NFL player to sign two $100 million deals in league history.

Everyone knows this is bogus. The Eagles can opt out at the end of this season and avoid paying QBDK a big chunk of it. But the question is, how much bulls*** is in his contract? Well, there’s a clause in it that goes like this:

The final $20 million is voided if Michael Vick plays for more than eight (8) games in any one season.

That’s hilarious. Even if QBDK played like the best quarterback of all time, there was no way he was going to even see a fifth of his supposed $100 million. This deal was a complete PR stunt so the dog drowner could say he was the first NFL player to receive a pair of nine-figure deals. You’d think someone asking for forgiveness would be more humble, but now that he decided to buy a dog, I feel like everyone knows that he’s full of crap.

3. QBDK was one of the scum (kidnapper) in the NFL Mafia game we ran in our Mafia Game section. One of his scum mates was Ray Lewis, the role-blocker. Lewis, as you know, is out for the year. This upset some people, including my girlfriend’s brother, as seen here:

HOUSTON OFFENSE: With apologies to my girlfriend’s brother, Lewis’ absence won’t be that big of a deal. I’m not going to say it’s going to actually help the Ravens, as some contrarians have suggested, but Lewis has been miserable this season. Teams have been running right at him, which would explain why Baltimore has surrendered 427 rushing yards the past two weeks. The Ravens don’t have anyone worthy to replace Lewis, so Baltimore’s ground defense won’t suddenly improve. Thus, I expect Arian Foster and perhaps Ben Tate to pick up where the Kansas City and Dallas backs left off.

The Ravens will miss Lewis’ on-field leadership more than anything else. But the bigger injury is to No. 1 cornerback Lardarius Webb, who would’ve had an easy time covering Andre Johnson, who also seems to have lost a step. Johnson will now be able to get open, so Matt Schaub will be able to find him, as well as the plethora of tight ends on the roster off his patented play-action bootlegs.

One player Baltimore is hoping to get back from injury soon is Terrell Suggs. Unfortunately, he’s not ready to play, meaning the Ravens will once have trouble pressuring the quarterback. Schaub should have all day to throw, especially if his running game is working.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Everyone is talking about Lewis’ absence, but he’s not even the best inside linebacker unavailable for this game. Brian Cushing being sidelined really hurt the Texans this past Sunday night. That was extremely evident, as the Packers had success doing whatever they wanted offensively.

Aaron Rodgers shredded Houston’s defense for 338 yards and six touchdowns. The week before, Mark Sanchez would’ve had success throwing the ball on the Texans had his receivers not dropped tons of passes. It’s safe to say that Joe Flacco will have another quality performance. He’s been playing on a near-elite level recently if the Kansas City game is excluded, so I don’t see why he can’t shine again versus the short-handed Texans.

The Ravens will also be able to run the ball – assuming that Cam Cameron remembers that he has one of the best backs in the NFL at his disposal. The Packers rushed for 82 yards on 29 carries against the Cushing-less Texans last week. That may not seem like a whole lot, but consider the talent disparity between Alex Green and Ray Rice for a second. Baltimore fans can only help that Cameron realizes this as well.

RECAP: Nearly two-thirds of the public is on the host, but I like Baltimore for two reasons. First, we’re getting good line value with the Ravens. This was -4.5 a week ago, and now it’s -7. I understand that the injuries to Lewis and Webb prompted the shift in the spread, but what about Cushing? He’s the best player not in the lineup. No one is talking about him, instead focusing on the two Baltimore players. Houston’s defense was not the same without Cushing.

Second, I really think the Ravens will be playing for respect. Tom Jackson said they wouldn’t make the playoffs without Lewis. Cousin Sal predicted that the Bengals would win the division. Baltimore will be out to prove that it’s more than a one-man team.

Besides, the Texans should not be touchdown favorites over a good team like the Ravens, who, by the way, have only been underdogs of seven or more only once in John Harbaugh’s tenture – last year’s AFC Championship, which they nearly won. This is a media- and public-overreaction spread, so let’s take advantage.

FINAL THOUGHTS: After giving it a lot of thought, I’m bumping this up to four units. This spread has moved 2.5 points in a span of a week because Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb are out. Well, Bruah Cushing is missing, while Johnathan Joseph is very banged up and not near 100 percent. The national media would disagree with this, but Cushing and Joseph as a duo are better than Lewis and Webb. This spread is getting out of control – I love it at +7 – so let’s take advantage.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 53% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 3-1 ATS going into a bye.

Gary Kubiak is 4-1 ATS going into a bye.

Opening Line: Texans -5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Ravens 23
Ravens +7 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 43, Ravens 13

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)
Line: Packers by 4.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Packers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Packers -6.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you may know that I like to respond to my spam mails. I’m continuing last week’s, which was from a woman named Mulyana:

Yes, I’m Steve Urkel. The biggest nerd in television history. If you’re not familiar with him, just watch this.

Sure enough, the person pretending to be this Mulyana chick e-mailed me back, as he’s a dumb spammer from somewhere in Asia and has no clue who Urkel is. Her message to me said that she loves me but she needs someone to transfer her funds to an American bank. She also sent a picture:

Here was my reply:

By the way, that address that I listed is the actual Winslow residence from Family Matters. It’s currently preserved as a historical property. I really hope they get some sort of mail from “Mulyana.”

Her next e-mail gave me her bank e-mail and that the depositor was a Dr Dreamad tuazama. I replied:

After this, Mulyana gave me a sample e-mail to send to the bank. I did so here:

The phone number’s legit, by the way. I looked it up on WhitePages.com, and there’s a Steve Urkel who lives in Houston. I wish I could hear that phone call. Sorry, I’m evil.

Here’s Waldo Geraldo Faldo’s e-mail to Mr. Anthony Makati (from my other e-mail address):

The bank contacted only Steve Urkel – they apparently didn’t like Waldo Geraldo Faldo’s offer – and told me they needed some stuff, including Dr. Dreamad Tuazama’s death certificate, so I e-mailed the lovely Mulyana.

*** OK, so that’s what happened up until last week. ***

I didn’t hear back from Mulyana, unforunately, soI thought I’d e-mail her one last time before moving on:

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: In a span of just one week, we’ve gone from “What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” to “Aaron Rodgers is playing like an MVP candidate again!” Media overreaction helped last week in my October NFL Pick of the Month, but Rodgers won’t have the same motivation to slaughter the Rams, given that he’s a moderately sized road favorite instead of an underdog being dismissed by the public.

Rodgers was sharp versus the Texans, but Houston was missing its best defender not on the line of scrimmage. St. Louis’ stop unit is at full strength. The Rams rank sixth against the pass (6.5 YPA) and have Cortland Finnegan, who is capable of erasing most No. 1 wideouts. He took care of Brian Hartline last week and should have his way with another white receiver in Jordy Nelson. Nelson is Rodgers’ preferred option again with Greg Jennings out, but the reigning MVP should have success throwing to James Jones and Randall Cobb if Nelson is smothered.

Rodgers will also have to avoid St. Louis’ prolific pass rush. Chris Long and Robert Quinn have both been awesome this year, which is the reason why the Rams are tied for seventh with 17 sacks. They’ll collapse the pocket, as they have a huge advantage over Green Bay’s two beleaguered offensive tackles.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I was pretty shocked the Rams moved the chains so well in Miami. I thought for sure that Sam Bradford would struggle without his favorite receiver, Danny Amendola. But Brandon Gibson stepped up and became Bradford’s preferred target, while Chris Givens once again caught a deep pass downfield.

The catalyst for all of this was the running game. Both Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson pounded a Dolphin run defense that was ranked first against the rush going into this past weekend. They’re now third because St. Louis mustered 128 yards on the ground. The Packers just smothered Arian Foster and the Texans, so even though B.J. Raji is iffy to play again – he missed Wednesday’s practice – it would be slightly surprising if the Rams to have repeat success in terms of running the ball.

If Jackson and Richardson are limited, it’ll make things so much more difficult for Bradford, who is still missing three of his starting offensive linemen. I don’t understand how he’s surviving with Wayne Hunter as his blind-side protector, but I feel as though Clay Matthews should be able to take advantage of this.

RECAP: Rodgers usually plays well on the road unless he’s favored by a massive amount. But this is his third-consecutive visiting tilt. Does that change things? Well, I looked it up, and road favorites in their third straight away from home are 8-2 against the spread in the past decade. When Rodgers gets on a role like this, you usually want to bet on him, so that’s what I’m going to do here.

Also, consider that the Rams may be focused on going to London next week. This is a very small sample size, but teams as underdogs or pick-em are 1-4 against the spread prior to flying overseas.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m concerned about all of the action on the Packers, but there’s still too much to like with the visitor to move off my selection. I’m sticking with two units on Green Bay.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Everyone is back on the Packers’ bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 87% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 18-9 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Rams 17
Packers -4.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 30, Rams 20

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4)
Line: Cowboys 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Cowboys -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Cowboys -2.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following exchange took place yesterday during Tim Tebow’s press conference.

Reporter: Tim, what do you say to all the critics like Keyshawn Johnson and Bomani Jones who think you’re one of the worst football players of all time?

Tim Tebow: First of all, I’d like to thank God for giving me the chance to speak in front of you all today. Secondly, I’d like to thank God for Keyshawn Johnson and Bomani Jones. They may hate me, but God has blessed them so that they can have opinions, and God should be thanked for those opinions. Thirdly, I’d like to thank God for…

Tom Brady: ROAR!!! MUHAHAHAHAHA!!! I AM SATAN, AND I HAVE COME TO DESTROY YOU, TIM TEBOW!!!

Reporter: AHHHHHHH IT’S SATAN!!!

Tom Brady: THAT’S RIGHT!!! I’M THE DARK OVERLORD HIMSELF! LOOK AT THE HORNS IN MY HAIR! MY WIFE MADE ME GET THIS HAIRCUT THIS WEEK SO I CAN TAKE DOWN TIM TEBOW AGAIN MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Tim Tebow: Don’t worry, guys. I’d like to thank God for Tom Brady’s haircut. It may have transformed him into Satan, but without God, there wouldn’t be Satan, so we can all thank God for Satan.

Tom Brady: WHY THANK… NO YOU WILL NOT TRICK ME, TIM TEBOW! I WILL DESTROY YOU MUHAHAHAHA!!!

Tim Tebow: It’s not a trick, Tom Brady. You’re one of God’s creations, and God will always love you.

Tom Brady: I HATE YOU TIM TEBOW ARGHHHHHH!!!

Saddam Hussein: Hey guy!

Tom Brady: SADDAM, WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE? I TOLD YOU TO WAIT IN THE HOT TUB FOR ME.

Saddam Hussein: I missed you, guy!

Tom Brady: I MISSED YOU TOO, SADDAM, BUT I’M BUSY DESTROYING TIM TEBOW RIGHT NOW.

Saddam Hussein: I know, guy! I’m just trying to support you, guy!

Tom Brady: I… THAT MEANS SO MUCH TO ME, SADDAM… YOU KNOW THAT YOU’RE SUCH A SPECIAL PERSON IN MY LIFE. I… I JUST CAN’T DO IT ANYMORE. I CAN’T DESTROY TIM TEBOW BECAUSE I HAVE TOO MUCH LOVE IN MY HEART FOR YOU, SADDAM.

Saddam Hussein: Aww me too, guy!

Tim Tebow: Two men loving each other? God blesses you no longer, heathens!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I really hope that the Cowboys spend the entire week working on their clock management issues. What happened in Baltimore was an absolute disgrace. Dallas controlled the game and would have won easily if it didn’t continuously shoot itself in the foot with dumb mistakes, namely running the play clock down close to zero on every single snap because Jason Garrett couldn’t get the calls in on time.

The Cowboys should dominate this contest as well. They’ll run the ball easily on Carolina even though DeMarco Murray is out. Felix Jones won’t have any issues with a defense that has surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to every opponent it has battled this year.

Assuming Jones can rip off big gains on the ground like he did last week after Murray got hurt, Tony Romo will have even more time in the pocket to dissect a secondary that has permitted 300.8 passing yards per game since Week 2. Top corner Chris Gamble will be back for Carolina, but the problem is two-fold. First, the safeties are terrible, and second, defensive coordinator Sean McDermott’s coverage schemes are crap. Romo will hit Dez Bryant, Miles Austin-Jones and Jason Witten for multiple big gains.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers suffered a huge blow last week when center Ryan Kalil was placed on injured reserve with a foot injury. Kalil is one of the top centers in the NFL and will sorely be missed. Geoff Hangartner, who has played right guard all season, will easily slide into Kalil’s position. The real issue though is what’s going to happen at Hangartner’s old slot. Carolina will be forced to go with Garry Williams, who really sucks.

The Panthers will struggle to run the ball more so than usual without Kalil, meaning it’ll be up to Cam Newton to get the job done. Newton at least catches a break, as Anthony Spencer is expected out again. Jay Ratliff didn’t seem like himself last week coming off an injury, so Newton should have some time in the pocket unless Ratliff bounces back by taking advantage of the mismatch inside.

Newton could find success against Dallas’ secondary. Brandon Carr hasn’t been as good as advertised, while the safety play has been pretty pedestrian. Of course, Newton will have to do what he does best – pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. That’ll be difficult to do against the Cowboys’ outstanding linebacking corps.

RECAP: The Panthers have been hearing about how bad they are for two weeks, so I like them to come out angry and motivated. The Cowboys, meanwhile, figure to be flat off an emotional loss. Besides, they’ll be looking ahead to battling the Giants, Falcons and Eagles in consecutive games following this one.

I’m taking Carolina for a couple of units. I’d make it three if it weren’t for Kalil’s injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I considered sliding this down to one unit because of Carolina’s laundry list of injuries, but I’m going to stick with two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Cowboys are coming off an emotional loss. Also, check out whom they play after this “easy” game against the Panthers: Giants, Falcons and Eagles.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

All the Cowboys have to do is beat the Panthers by more than two points? Easy money.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 82% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Panthers are 30-43 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Panthers 21, Cowboys 19
Panthers +2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 19, Panthers 14

Washington Redskins (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2)
Line: Giants by 6.5. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Griffin).
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Giants -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Giants -7.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 165 people remaining. Fourteen people dropped out because of the Steelers last week, while 109 were nearly axed in the Falcons’ near loss.

Fantasy: We’ll be running FanDuel contests through the end of October. It’s going to be a $1 entry fee this week, but with a $1,000 prize pool. Go to the Fantasy Football Contest page for more details (link will be available later during the week).

Picking Contest: We’re also running an NFL Picking Contest. It’s free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin is so fun to watch. He can wing it downfield or run for a big gain on any play. He’s also smart and accurate, unlike a certain Philadelphia quarterback whom he compares to physically.

This is a bad matchup for the Giants because of the issues in their back seven. Middle linebacker Chase Blackburn sucks, while Keith Rivers simply isn’t healthy. What are they going to do when Griffin sprints downfield? And then there’s Kenny Phillips, who’s doubtful to play. I don’t trust the oft-torched Corey Webster, pedestrian Stevie Brown or raw Jayron Hosley to stop Griffin from completing long passes.

The Giants can pressure the passer well, but they’ve been extremely weak against the run recently, ranking 23rd against it (4.7 YPC). Not having defensive tackle Rocky Bernard has hurt. He’s tentatively listed as questionable, but he didn’t even make the trip to San Francisco. He missed practice Wednesday, which is a bad sign for him.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants’ secondary isn’t in good shape, but they have a bunch of Hall-of-Famers if you compare them to Washington’s defensive backfield. It’s a disgrace. With Brandon Meriweather out for weeks and Cedric Griffin in and out of the lineup, the Redskins have allowed every single quarterback they’ve battled – this includes Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman and Andy Dalton – to throw for at least 299 passing yards.

Part of the problem is a lacking pass rush with Brian Orakpo out, but whatever the reason is, it’s safe to say that Eli Manning has an incredibly easy matchup. If things go smoothly, he should have one of his better performances of the season, especially if Hakeem Nicks’ health improves.

The only way Manning won’t be yet another signal-caller to eclipse that 299-yard mark is if the Giants continuously ram the ball down Washington’s throat. Ahmad Bradshaw is on a tear and should easily trample the Redskins’ No. 17 ground defense (4.02). New York rushed for 151 yards against the 49ers, who are eighth in that department.
RECAP: The Redskins are one of my favorite plays of the week. Here’s why:

1. We’ve been through this before. The Giants thrive when everyone doubts them, but they don’t play up to their abilities if they’re expected to win. They’re a healthy favorite in this matchup, so they won’t be at their best.

2. New York has the Cowboys and Steelers coming up after this matchup, so they may look past Washington, which is something the team did last year.

3. Fading divisional home favorites who are going to be underdogs in a divisional game the following week is a winning proposition.

4. The Redskins are pretty underrated. They’re 3-3, but think about it – they may have beaten Atlanta if Griffin hadn’t gotten hurt. They may have defeated Cincinnati if Trent Williams hadn’t gone down. And I’m positive they would have slain St. Louis in Week 2 if they hadn’t lost three key defenders (Orakpo, Adam Carriker, Josh Wilson) early on. With better luck, Washington would be 4-2 or maybe even 5-1 right now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me. Three units on the Redskins.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

Why would the Giants care about the Redskins with the Cowboys and Steelers coming up afterward?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 53% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Giants have won 9 of the last 12 meetings (Redskins last 2).

Giants are 18-26 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 43 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Redskins 24
Redskins +6.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 27, Redskins 23

New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
Line: Saints by 1. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Saints -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Saints -1.
Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 7 has been posted – Emmitt and his crew meet some very helpful friends in an unexpected place.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This is a hell of a matchup for Drew Brees. First of all, he’ll have all of his receivers back. Jimmy Graham, who was hobbling around against the Chargers, is listed as probable. Marques Colston had a week off to take care of his foot problem. Lance Moore, who was out for the San Diego contest with a hamstring, is also probable. Second, the Buccaneers have issues in their secondary because top cornerback Aqib Talib is suspended. That means someone named E.J. Biggers will be tasked with stopping one of Brees’ weapons.

The only challenge the Saints have on this side of the football is protecting Brees. Left end Michael Bennett and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy have both done a good job of pressuring the quarterback this season, but that’s all Tampa has in that regard. Adrian Clayborn, the starter across from Bennett, is out for the year. Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, replacing Clayborn in the lineup, has barely even grazed opposing quarterbacks since entering the lineup.

The one thing Tampa’s stop unit does well is contain the run. The team is ranked fourth in that category, surrendering just 3.3 YPC. However, the Saints move the chains primarily through the air, so this shouldn’t be much of a factor. They may even have some success in terms of running the ball because the Buccaneers will be so focused on stopping the pass with Talib out.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers could easily match the Saints point for point. New Orleans has a terrible defense that is missing Will Smith because of a suspension. Smith is having a terrible season, but performed well against the Chargers prior to the bye. With Smith out, the Saints won’t have anyone who can get to the quarterback. Junior Galette is their best hope, but he’s normally just a nickel rusher.

With absolutely no pressure in his face, a hot Josh Freeman should be able to dissect New Orleans’ secondary with ease. The only team worse than the Saints against the pass in terms of YPA is Kansas City, whom Freeman torched Sunday. New Orleans should improve just a bit in this area because a now-healthy Johnny Patrick should displace the completely ineffective Corey White, but I still don’t trust this defensive backfield to do anything positive.

The Buccaneers could also ram the ball down New Orleans’ throat. The Saints, ranked 31st against the run, have surrendered at least 111 rushing yards to all but one opponent they’ve battled this season. Doug Martin finally got going last week, so you have to like his chances this Sunday.

RECAP: This is a pretty even matchup, but I like the Saints because they’ve had a week off to prepare for the Buccaneers. Favorites, particularly those on the road, tend to cover at a high rate coming off a bye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints will be without Jimmy Graham, but the line has appropriately dropped to -1. Drew Brees will still be able to move the chains without his stud tight end, so I’m keeping things the same.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise that the public likes the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 81% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: Road Team has won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Buccaneers are 7-18 ATS at home in the previous 25 instances.

Buccaneers are 3-9 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Buccaneers 27
Saints -1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 35, Buccaneers 28

Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jets at Patriots, Jaguars at Raiders, Steelers at Bengals, Lions at Bears

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)