NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2014): 8-8 (-$130)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)

NFL Picks (2014): 115-118-7 (-$2,655)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 22, 6:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Giants (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)
Line: Rams by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Rams -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -4.
Sunday, Dec. 21, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Rams.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 30 people remain with two weeks to go. We lost no one last week, so good job by those still remaining. Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: You can tell which head coaches are effective based on how hard teams are playing for them. As with Rex Ryan, Tom Coughlin is still getting 100-percent effort out of his players, so I was glad to hear a report say that there’s a 99.9-percent chance he’ll be returning in 2015.

That said, it’s helped Coughlin that he’s had Odell Beckham step up and become a dominant receiver despite being just a rookie. Beckham makes amazing catches and racks up tons of yardage each week. Bill Simmons even joked about Beckham being the MVP; he’s been that good. His presence has helped Eli Manning immensely; Peyton’s little brother has generated at least 247 yards in each game during the past seven games, and save for a hideous outing against the 49ers, he’s maintained a 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span.

Manning will be tested against the Rams, who have a tremendous defensive front that will undoubtedly win in the trenches against a New York offensive line that has struggled this year. St. Louis also has a solid secondary that has improved ever since the Mark Barron trade, so Beckham will have his toughest test since the Seattle game, though the athletic rookie did post a 7-108 line in that contest. It would be nice if a strong running game complemented the Manning-to-Beckham connection, but with Rashad Jennings hurt, Andre Williams doesn’t exactly pose a threat against the NFL’s No. 9 ground defense (3.79 YPC).

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams couldn’t move the ball whatsoever last Thursday, though they were battling one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. This matchup won’t nearly be as difficult, though the Giants have made some improvements lately. They struggled immensely against the run earlier in the year, but they’ve limited their previous four opponents to just 3.8 YPC. Their competition hasn’t been as good overall, but holding Washington’s backs to just 65 yards was quite impressive.

Having said that, New York didn’t have as much success against Robert Griffin, who was able to put together his best performance of the entire season against them. Even Jay Gruden didn’t want to strangle him, so you know he played well. Shaun Hill should be able to pick up where Griffin left off, as he was playing well until he ran into Arizona’s ferocious secondary.

The Giants can prevent this from happening by putting heavy pressure on Hill. They’ve recorded a ridiculous 22 sacks over the past three weeks – the most in the NFL – though again, they were going up against a trio of awful offensive lines. The Rams haven’t blocked all that well though, as they gave up four sacks to the Redskins a couple of weeks ago.

RECAP: I’d like the Giants for 2-3 units if they weren’t poisonous. New York is typically better away from home, and the Rams could have one eye on the Seattle game next week. Also, this spread seems a bit too high. I just can’t see myself betting on the Giants though because I’m awful when it comes to picking their games (check the numbers below the comment board).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game. For what it’s worth, the sharps are taking the Rams.

SUNDAY NOTES: Again, nothing has really changed. I’m 50-50 on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 61% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 40-24 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 32-24 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Giants 17
Giants +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 37, Rams 27

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (2-12)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -4.
Sunday, Dec. 21, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bills.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Adrian Peterson reveals what happened to him during the Walking Buc apocalypse.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Bills just shut down Aaron Rodgers and limited Peyton Manning. Think they have any concerns that they’ll be able to handle Derek Carr? The rookie quarterback had an impressive showing against the 49ers two weeks ago, but took a major step backward last Sunday against the Chiefs, going 27-of-56 for just 222 yards and a garbage-time touchdown.

Carr will definitely not have a clean pocket in this matchup. The Bills are tied with the Eagles for the most sacks in the NFL this season, so they’ll flood the backfield whenever Carr holds on to the ball for very long. That won’t be very often, however, as Carr tends to release passes quickly, checking it down to his receivers for minimal gains. It’s difficult to imagine this sort of offense succeeding against a stellar stop unit.

The Raiders’ one slim chance is to run the ball effectively. They didn’t give Latavius Murray enough touches at Kansas City – and even they admitted it – but Murray could have success against the Bills, who have surrendered a combined 238 rushing yards the past two weeks. Then again, Buffalo wasn’t exactly concentrating on stopping the rush with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers on the other side, so that’s why I called it a slim chance.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s a shame the Bills don’t have a better quarterback, or they’d definitely be a playoff contender. Whereas Matt Ryan torched Green Bay’s secondary two weeks ago, Orton struggled to get anything going this past Sunday.

Orton, however, should at least have a clean pocket at Oakland. The Raiders have accumulated the third-fewest sacks in the NFL, and save for their victory against the 49ers, they haven’t registered more than two sacks in any game this season. Their already-shaky secondary has struggled as a result, so even Orton might be able to have his way with it, as it’ll be very difficult for the Raiders to cover Sammy Watkins.

The Bills don’t run the ball very well, so the Raiders at least don’t have to worry about that. Oakland’s ground defense is actually somewhat decent, so Fred Jackson, who is definitely not the same player he once was, won’t be doing very much.

RECAP: Believe it or not, but I like the Raiders for a small bet. I’m not as confident in them as I was when I picked them to upset the 49ers because their motivation could be in question, but the Bills are just in such a terrible spot. They’re coming off an emotional victory over the Packers, and they typically don’t play nearly as well on the road. They may also have one eye on the Patriots; they surely don’t believe that they can beat Tom Brady with just one week of preparation.

Something else to consider is the amount of money coming in on Buffalo. The house will need the Raiders, who have been good to the books this year with their 7-7 ATS record. This spread is currently available at +6 -105 at Bovada, so I’ll lock that in for a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been tempted to bump this up to two units, but I just don’t trust the Raiders enough to do it. The Raiders are still available for +7 at Bovada; it’s dropped to +6.5 elsewhere.

SUNDAY NOTES: What I wrote last night still applies. This is +6.5/+7 depending on where you look. I like the Raiders a little.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Bills are off an emotional victory, but do the Raiders get up for a non-divisional foe before battling the Broncos?

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Who wants to bet on Oakland?

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 75% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

True home teams are 20-10 ATS in the last 30 Bills games.

Raiders are 6-20 ATS in their final home game since 1985.

Opening Line: Bills -5.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Raiders 16
Raiders +7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 26, Bills 24

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -2.
Sunday, Dec. 21, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Idiots at the Gym.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The big story entering this contest is DeMarco Murray’s hand injury. The NFL’s leading rusher is a game-time decision. Doctors and former players have expressed skepticism about Murray’s availability, but all the reports coming out of Dallas indicate that Murray has a good chance of suiting up. I suppose Dallas is very fortunate to have Dr. Jerry Jones at the controls to clear all of its talented players.

Murray, if he even plays, won’t be as effective. If he falls awkwardly, he could aggravate the injury. He won’t catch passes as well, and his blocking will be adversely affected. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant to move the chains. Bryant torched Philadelphia’s beleaguered secondary Sunday night, but things won’t be as easy in this contest, given that Bryant will have to go up against Vontae Davis, who is obviously a much better corner than Bradley Fletcher.

What the Colts lack, however, is Philadelphia’s pass rush. They mustered just two sacks in as many weeks. They’re 10th in sacks overall (36), but they haven’t gotten to the quarterback well lately, and Romo is fortified pretty well behind his stout front.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It’s well known that Dallas’ big weakness is on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys have many areas of concern there, including the pass rush. Though they got to Mark Sanchez four times last week, they still have the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL.

Having said that, the Cowboys could pressure Andrew Luck, whose offensive line has had issues this year. Luck has been under plenty of duress lately, which would explain why he always seems to be good for a turnover or two at the beginning of the game. Dallas has to capitalize on those give-aways, or it might miss its opportunity to establish a lead in this important game.

Despite the inevitable turnovers, Luck will be able to move the chains and help his team score against the Cowboys. Dallas is 24th against the pass in terms of YPA (7.64), and it’s even worse in terms of stopping the run, so Dan Herron could have some big gains, though Trent Richardson will just manage his usual two yards and fall down.

RECAP: The Colts should be the right side. Everyone is trashing them despite the fact that they keep winning games. As a result, they’re now underdogs despite the fact that Luck has a great track record when getting points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have a poor record at home, especially when coming off a victory.

My only reservation about Indianapolis is that Dallas needs this game much more, but I still like the Colts for a couple of units, as they’re the better team with the clutch quarterback getting a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have moved this up to -3.5, as they like the Cowboys. Perhaps they’re wondering about the Colts’ motivation in this game. Honestly, I’d like Indianapolis more if the Eagles would’ve won; now, there’s less pressure on Dallas.

SUNDAY NOTES: As Chad Millman mentioned, the professional bettoers are on Dallas. I am not.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 63% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Cowboys are 15-8 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Cowboys are 11-21 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 4-18 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Tony Romo is 11-23 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (3-8 ATS as an underdog).

The underdog is 52-23 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Cowboys 24
Colts +3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 42, Colts 7

Seattle Seahawks (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (11-3)
Line: Seahawks by 8. Total: 36.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -3.
Sunday, Dec. 21, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Ryan Lindley has the most interceptions (7) without a touchdown of any quarterback in the NFL, though Johnny Manziel may soon have something to say about that. Still, it’s difficult to envision the Cardinals having much offensive success against Seattle’s defense, which has improved tremendously since K.J. Wright reentered the lineup.

Seriously, how are the Cardinals going to move the ball? The Seahawks have generated 16 sacks the past four weeks, so they’ll overwhelm Lindley in the pocket. Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom with smother his receivers, so Lindley won’t have much success aerially. And with Andre Ellington out, the Cardinals don’t have a real threat in their backfield, and neither Stepfan Taylor nor Kerwynn Williams will find much room against a defense ranked sixth against the rush (3.69 YPC). It seems like the best Arizona can hope for is not turning the ball over.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’ll be up to the Cardinals’ defense to keep this game close. They have a dominant stop unit, so they should be able to stay within striking distance, as long as the offense doesn’t give away too many points.

Like the Seahawks, the Cardinals have a stellar run defense; they permit 3.7 YPC to the opposition, and they just limited the red-hot Tre Mason and the Rams to only 37 rushing yards. Containing Marshawn Lynch will be much more difficult, but they restricted him to 39 yards on 15 carries in Week 12. It might even be more difficult for Lynch to find running lanes, given that Russell Okung will be out.

Okung’s absence will also affect the passing game. The Cardinals sacked Russell Wilson seven times in the previous matchup, so he could be under even more pressure without his blind-side protector. Wilson will be passing into a tough secondary, so he’ll have to run around and convert first downs that way.

RECAP: This may shock you, but the Cardinals are one of my top plays this week. Here’s why:

Everyone is trashing the Cardinals. I have as well. “They can’t win with Ryan Lindley,” they say. Arizona is a proud, talented team that will want to prove everyone wrong. I expect its defense to have an otherworldly performance in this game against an offense that doesn’t produce many points.

This spread is way too high anyway. Even with considering their quarterback dilemma, the Cardinals rank as the 12th-best team in my NFL Power Rankings. I don’t care if they’re facing the top team in the league; no No. 12 squad should be home underdogs of eight points. That’s just ridiculous.

Also consider: The Cardinals are awesome at home; they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game; the Seahawks are coming off a physical victory over their arch rival; and there’s tons of money coming in on Seattle.

This is a four-unit play for me. I only have the slightest bit of trepidation about wagering money on Lindley, but I’m confident that with the extra preparation time, Bruce Arians will come up with an awesome game plan.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m locking this in at +8, which is available at Bovada. People are wondering how the Cardinals will score, but I’m wondering about the same thing with the Seahawks, who will be tired and without Russell Okung against Arizona’s awesome defense.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to +9. That’s just crazy. If this gets to +10, I may bump this to five units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It doesn’t look like I’m getting my +10, so I won’t be putting a fifth unit on the Cardinals. I’m shocked that the spread has continued to rise, but Arizona hasn’t gotten any sharp support. There’s been a decent amount of public action on Seattle though. Arizona just seems like the right side, as this should be a tight, low-scoring game. I love that Bruce Arians has had extra time to prepare as well. He’s one of the top coaches in the NFL, so I have to believe he has a good game plan for the Seahawks.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
The Seahawks are coming off a tough win against the 49ers, but this is for the No. 1 seed. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will be looking to show America that they can win with crap quarterbacks.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 67% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Home Team has won 7 of the past 10 meetings.

Seahawks are 9-5 ATS in their road finale since 1996.

Seahawks are 24-35 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Cardinals are 25-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 26-10 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Seahawks 16, Cardinals 13
Cardinals +8 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 35, Cardinals 6

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Monday, Dec. 22, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Cincinnati where the Cincinnati Bengals will battle the Indianapolis Colts! Guys, this is a very important game for me, as you can tell by what I have with me. Does anyone want to comment on how I look?

Emmitt: Paxter, you lookin’ especially nice. Very especially. You combed your hair, you wearin’ a soup and tie, and you holdin’ flowers in your hands. Who the flower for, if I may asks?

Reilly: Glad you asked, Emmitt. They are for Peyton Manning, who happens to be playing in this game. I’m going to approach him afterward and ask him a very important question.

Millen: You’ve got to be kidding me, Kevin! One does not approach Peyton Manning, a renowned 500-percent USDA Man, with just flowers and expect him to come to your hotel so you can insert kielbasas into his backside. No 500-percent USDA Man will do that for just flowers! If they did, I’d have 500-percent USDA Men storming my hotel room with kielbasas every night. What you have to do is make a grand gesture to make him even notice you, like buy his entire family a car, and drive up naked in the car you’re giving him!

Reilly: Shut up, sicko, I’m not trying to have sex with Peyton Manning! Sex is stupid anyway. I don’t know why anyone does it since it has no bearing on how the Eagles do.

Tollefson: Kevin, I think I know what sort of con job you’re pulling. You want to strangle Peyton, take him to some surgeon, strip him of his male parts, insert some female parts on him, then give him flowers to court him, and once you got him, you can make him cook and clean naked. Let me tell you, Kevin, I’ve done this before, and it doesn’t work very well. Even with female parts, men don’t look very good.

Fouts: And here’s exactly how you do that. First, you strangle Peyton. To do that, get some rope and sneak up behind him, then wrap the rope behind his neck. Make sure you’re in back of him and not in front of him, or else he’ll see you. It’s sometimes tough to differentiate front and back, so be careful! They’re opposites, which means they’re antonyms. Antonyms are opposites, which means antonyms and opposites are synonyms, which are the opposite of antonyms, but the synonyms of antonyms. Then, find a surgeon. To do that, look at the Yellow Pages. Those are the books that have pages that are yellow. If you have the White Pages, you have the wrong book, or someone painted the Yellow Pages with white paint. Then, ask the doctor to strip him of male parts. I don’t know what male parts are, or what female parts are. Maybe they are antonyms as well! Then, give him flowers. To do that, you want to be in front of him, but not in the back of him. If you’re behind him, he won’t see you, so he won’t be able to accept your flowers, so your flowers will be stuck in your hand for a long time!

Tollefson: You just repeated what I said, a**hole! Kevin, it’s up to you if you want to strip Peyton of his male parts, but I’d advise against it.

Herm: DON’T DO THAT TO PEYTON! SHOULDN’T DO THAT TO PEYTON! THAT WOULD BE BAD IF YOU DID THAT TO PEYTON! IT WOULD BE BAD IF YOU DID THAT TO ELI TOO! ELI WOULDN’T LIKE IT! JUST LIKE PEYTON WOULDN’T LIKE IT! ARCHIE WOULDN’T LIKE IT EITHER! ARCHIE WOULD HATE IT! ELI WOULD HATE IT! PEYTON WOULD HATE IT! BUT WHAT ABOUT COOPER!? WOULD HE HATE IT!? WOULD HE MIND IT!? MAYBE YOU CAN TRY IT ON COOPER! COOPER DIDN’T PLAY FOOTBALL LIKE HIS FATHER OR BROTHER OR OTHER BROTHER! BUT OTHER BROTHER IS JUST BROTHERS, SO WHY DIDN’T HERM USE PLURALS!? WHY DID HERM USE TOO MANY UNNECESSARY WORDS IN HIS SENTENCE!? HERM MUST EVALUATE HIS EFFICIENCY! HERM’S GOING TO STOP TALKING NOW!

Reilly: Guys, you’re being stupid, as usual. I’m only going to give flowers to Peyton so he lets me co-star in his commercials. It’ll be great! Me, Peyton and Papa in the Papa John’s commercials! Then, once LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin see that I’m in the commercials, they’ll want to hang out with me, and then they can come over for sleepovers, as long as mother says it’s OK, of course.

Charles Davis: Kevin, did you know that Peyton is in a lot of different types of commercials, Kevin? He’s in the Papa John’s commercial, Kevin. He’s also in the Buick commercial, Kevin. How about the Gatorade commercial, Kevin? Kevin, did you know Peyton was in a Sony commercial, Kevin? Kevin, how about the DirecTV commercials, Kevin? Don’t forget the MasterCard commercials, Kevin! What about the Oreos commercials with Eli, Kevin? Speaking of Eli, he was in another commercial too, Kevin! Can you guess which one, Kevin!? Hint: It’s something you put on your hand, Kevin! Oh, you think it’s an elephant, Kevin!? Nope, try again, Kevin! Oh, you think it’s an igloo, Kevin? Nope, you’re out of chances, Kevin! It was a watch commercial, Kevin! I can’t believe you guessed igloo, Kevin!

Reilly: I DIDN’T GUESS ANYTHING, A**HOLE! I’M GOING TO BE A PART OF PEYTON’S COMMERCIALS AND THEN I’M GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF MONEY AND THEN I’LL BUY A BULLDOZER AND DESTROY YOUR HOUSE! TAKE THAT, DICK! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: Whether it’s the flu, a bum thigh or a sapped arm, Peyton Manning is going through quite a bit right now. He didn’t look right against the Chiefs and Bills, and while he did convert some clutch third downs against the Chargers, it didn’t seem like he was 100 percent.

Fortunately for Manning, the Broncos have been able to establish a strong rushing attack with C.J. Anderson. The California product isn’t exactly an overly talented runner, but he’s able to get adequate lanes because opposing defenses fear Manning. The Bengals aren’t particularly good at stopping the rush, surrendering 4.38 YPC (4.42 YPC in their previous four games despite containing the Browns), so Anderson could have another strong performance.

Manning, meanwhile, could have a rebound outing against Cincinnati. The Bengals struggle immensely in terms of getting to the quarterback; they were ranked dead last in sacks before Johnny Manziel gave them three free ones on Sunday. Manning could have all night to throw, so he’ll be able to find his targets, including Julius Thomas, who should be able to play more snaps this week, especially with an extra day of rest.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The greatest issue surrounding the Bengals is, of course, Andy Dalton. No one in the media seemed to notice it because Johnny Arena Football was so atrocious, but Dalton had a very poor showing against the Browns. He threw a bad pick and was lucky that Cleveland defenders dropped several more interceptions. Dalton has been this team’s downfall the past three years, and it appears as though history will repeat itself over the next few weeks.

The Browns don’t even sport a strong defense, so how will Dalton succeed against the Broncos? Denver has two extremely talented cornerbacks in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, and they get help from Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware rushing the quarterback very effectively. The Bengals are missing their starting right tackle and have only one receiver playing well, so it’s difficult to imagine them moving the ball well at all aerially.

Cincinnati’s best chance is to pound the rock with Jeremy Hill again. Hill was awesome at Cleveland, as the inept Browns made him look like the second coming of Walter Payton. The Broncos are normally much better versus the rush (second in YPC, 3.31), but they might have trouble against Hill, given that two of their linebackers, including the upstart Brandon Marshall, are out of the lineup.

RECAP: I’m a fool. I’ve gone against Peyton Manning way too often. As one e-mailer pointed out, “Stop fading Peyton! He’s the best regular-season quarterback of all time!”

Indeed. Manning is 44-27 ATS as a road underdog, and he’s covered 65 percent of his games as a Bronco. He’s especially awesome on national TV, whereas Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton are not.

I’m making a big wager on the Broncos, who need to defeat the overrated Bengals to keep pace with the Patriots to have a chance at the No. 1 seed.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was holding out hope that I could get the Broncos at -3 -110, or maybe even -115, but the juice was too high, so I’m going to lay 3.5. I’m sticking with four units; I love that Peyton Manning has been hearing about how he’s regressing. He could have a big night against a defense that hasn’t handled elite passers very well. I’m a bit concerned about the Broncos missing their two linebackers, but they should still be able to cover.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Action on the Broncos, but not very much compared to the other games.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 12-5 ATS on Monday Night Football.

Peyton Manning is 44-27 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

John Fox is 7-1 ATS in his second-consecutive road game with the Broncos.

Bengals are 11-5 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 28-14 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Marvin Lewis is 6-12 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Bengals 16
Broncos -3.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 37, Broncos 28

Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)