NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)

NFL Picks (2015): 78-90-6 (-$5,920)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 30, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7)
Line: Cardinals by 8. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -9.
Sunday, Nov 29, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 11 is posted. Emmitt meets with Michael Sam to help overthrow Kim Jong-un. Sam, however, makes a strange request.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s amazing that Carson Palmer struggled for nearly a half last week, yet the Cardinals still managed to score 34 points. It could be argued that Palmer is playing better than any quarterback in the NFL right now, and there’s no reason to think that he’ll slow down against the 49ers.

San Francisco sucks. Its secondary can’t cover anyone. Russell Wilson, who had been struggling prior to Week 11, went 24-of-29 for 260 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers last week. That’s how bad San Francisco’s secondary is. Only two teams surrender a worse YPA.

The 49ers are also pretty bad against ground attacks, and they’ll only get worse with Glenn Dorsey out for the season. They were already 26th against the rush, and now they have to move on without one of their best run-stuffers. Chris Johnson is likely to have a huge game.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I still can’t believe I’m saying this, but Blaine Gabbert has been an upgrade over Colin Kaepernick. Both sail helpless passes out of bounds, but at least Gabbert does this less frequently. Gabbert does a good job of keeping drives alive. Unfortunately for him, Arizona’s high-octane offense is bound to score tons of points, meaning he’ll have to engage the Cardinals in a shootout – something he’s simply not equipped to do.

Gabbert simply doesn’t have the talent or the personnel. He may not even have Anquan Boldin at 100 percent, given that Boldin aggravated his hamstring in last week’s loss at Seattle. If Boldin is out or hurt, Gabbert really won’t have anyone to throw to. Arizona’s secondary will blanket all of his “weapons.”

The 49ers won’t have any luck running the ball either, even if Carlos Hyde manages to return. The Cardinals are fifth versus ground attacks, and it’s not like Hyde has the blocking to be successful anyway.

RECAP: I really want to bet the Cardinals, but I’m intimidated by this spread. How can I possibly lay double digits on the road? That can’t be a good idea, can it? Well, thanks to killersports.com, I was able to punch in the numbers, and here’s what I got:

Double-digit road favorites are 58-77 ATS since 1989 (43.0%). They’ve been even worse in the new CBA era, going 6-11 ATS (35.3%). However, double-digit divisional road favorites have been just fine; they’re 28-30 ATS since 1989 (48.3%) and 3-5 ATS this decade (37.5%), so that’s not bad.

Thus, I’m going to take the Cardinals for two units. Barring numerous fluky turnovers, I don’t see how the 49ers will stay close with Arizona. This is just too great of a mismatch, and despite what Chad Millman may say on his podcast, there’s just no real advantage to taking a double-digit home underdog in a divisional battle.

FRIDAY UPDATES: I’m not changing this pick. This is a very high number, but it’s double digits for a reason. The Cardinals were flat at Cleveland a few weeks ago, yet they won, 34-20. This game could go the same way, as the 49ers are simply too outmatched.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public likes the Cardinals, but the sharps haven’t weighed in on this game at all. Why would they want the 49ers when Arizona could easily dismantle them?

SUNDAY NOTES: Some weird numbers here. The Cardinals are -8 at Pinnacle and CRIS, but are -9.5 at the Westgate and -10 +105 at Bovada. In other words, lots of options. The sharps have been betting the 49ers +10 and +9.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
The Cardinals are coming off an emotional, last-second win, but I guess that’s a good thing?

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The money is on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 81% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: 49ers have won 12 of the last 17 meetings.

Bruce Arians is 28-14 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, 49ers 6
Cardinals -8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 19, 49ers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -4.
Sunday, Nov 29, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is My Trip to Pennhurst Asylum

SEATTLE OFFENSE: So, that’s why the Seahawks got rid of Christine Michael and Robert Turbin… it all makes sense now. Thomas Rawls was incredible last week. Granted, this was against the horrible 49ers, but he showed tremendous running ability, and it was easy to see why there were reports this summer that the Seahawks valued him so greatly. Rawls ran better than Marshawn Lynch has all year, which isn’t too surprising in the wake of discovering that Lynch had been dealing with a sports hernia.

With that in mind, a healthy Rawls is a big upgrade to an offense that had been severely lacking in explosion this entire season. Rawls won’t have as big of a performance this week because the Steelers are actually a professional football team, but their run defense isn’t great, ranking 14th in terms of YPC. Thus, I think Rawls should had a strong outing, especially with Russell Wilson being such a threat to scramble.

Speaking of Wilson, he had his best passing game of the year last week. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this occurred with Rawls in the backfield. Remember, Wilson also played well at Cincinnati when Rawls started that contest as well. The Steelers don’t have the best secondary, so Wilson’s success from last week could trickle into this contest.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers are coming off a bye, so it’s easy to forget what they were able to accomplish beforehand. Landry Jones started against the Browns, but Ben Roethlisberger, who wasn’t even supposed to play, replaced an injured Jones and lit up the Browns. This was great, but duplicating that performance in this contest will be extremely difficult.

It’s safe to say that the Seahawks have a better secondary than what the banged-up Browns possess. Richard Sherman isn’t having his best year, but the two safeties are still potent. Plus, Jeremy Lane is set to return. Seattle will need him against Pittsburgh’s two dynamic receivers. I still expect Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant to play well, but they won’t have mind-boggling numbers like they did in Week 10.

The Steelers will probably have to do everything aerially, given that DeAngelo Williams has an extremely difficult matchup. The Seahawks are even better against the run, ranking fourth against it, and Williams doesn’t have the talent Le’Veon Bell possesses to be matchup-proof.

RECAP: I’m completely torn on this game. Part of me wants to take the Seahawks, as they seem ready to take off with Rawls installed as the starting running back. This is also the lowest home point spread we’ll see for Seattle in quite a long time. On the other hand, the Steelers just had a week off, so they’ll be ready for Seattle. With time to heal, Roethlisberger should be sharp.

I think the tie-breaker is the betting action. The Steelers are a public dog, which is not good news for them, given that their owners made all of their money on sportsbooking when it was legal. Shady things tend to happen for and against Pittsburgh, depending on where the money is going, so this could be an anti-Steelers game.

FRIDAY UPDATES: The Steelers are such a massively backed public underdog that I have the urge to bet a unit on the Seahawks. Perhaps I’ll make the unit change during my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp action here either. There’s lots of public money coming in on the Steelers. It wouldn’t surprise me if this spread rose right before kickoff.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharp money finally came in on the Steelers. This spread has now dropped to Seahawks -3, so take Seattle now if you wanted them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 72% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 33-15 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Steelers 20
Seahawks -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 39, Steelers 30

New England Patriots (10-0) at Denver Broncos (8-2)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov 29, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: .

So, I’d say these Tuesday picks are going well so far. I feel more focused. Then again, I’m always in love with all of my picks until Sunday come around. As soon as the first ball kicks off, however, I instantly begin imaginging scenarios in which I’ll lose – and most of them come to fruition!

Having said that, I think I’m keeping my Tuesday pick schedule. Most people voted Tuesday over Wednesday. I got some great e-mails about it as well, including this one from Stephen N:

I love the idea of going back to Tuesday picks enough to put 5 units on it. Here’s 5 reasons why, one for each unit:

1. Picks on Tuesday gets us looking to the next week the day after MNF, so it feels like there is no void in the week.

2 Knowing the side earlier in the week makes you follow the normal mid-week activities (practices, injury reports, etc.) much more closely.

3. There’s a lot of material in the power rankings used in your following week’s picks, so I feel like releasing those on the same day makes sense. It gives readers a concrete idea of your rationale, and they can decide whether to follow or fade with all the info at hand.

4. It will give me more info to read on your site on Tuesday, rather than ESPN or NFL’s garbage power ranking, where teams are ordered by win-loss record and where a team an move up or down 12 spots from week to week.

5. It will extend my Monday non-productivity into Tuesday as well, leaving only Wednesday and half of Thursday to be productive at my job. The less time being useful at work the better!

Make it happen Walt, you have the power!

Hey, if I can make anyone less productive at their work place, I’m sure as hell going to do it!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I said it last week, the Patriots are dropping like flies. First, several offensive linemen, then Dion Lewis, then Julian Edelman, and now both Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson. This has to be pretty deflating for New England, given that things once seemed so incredibly promising.

Things did not look good Monday night. The Patriots struggled to move the chains for most of the contest. Not only did Brady not have anyone to throw to; his offensive line was in shambles. No matter what Bill Belichick tried to do – he must have used a billion different combinations – the Patriots could not pass protect against the Bills, forcing a frustrated Brady to repeatedly ground the ball into the dirt in utter disgust. It’s easy to imagine the same thing happening here, as Denver has a fierce pass rush of their own.

The Broncos are also great in other aspects. They have the league’s No. 1 rush defense, while their secondary is very stout. They also happen to defend tight ends pretty well. I think we’ll be seeing an extension of what transpired Monday night in this contest.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Patriots’ defense will once again have to carry the team to victory. They accomplished this feat against the Bills, but were extremely fortunate. Buffalo shot itself in the foot on numerous occasions, including two missed opportunities for touchdowns. Taylor underthrew Chris Hogan in the end zone, while LeSean McCoy dropped a score.

Perhaps New England will be just as fortunate against the Broncos, though I bet they’re pretty distraught about not going up against Peyton Manning, who can barely complete forward passes anymore. There’s no question that Brock Osweiler is an upgrade. However, I’m sure Belichick will have some schemes prepared to confuse Denver’s new signal-caller. Osweiler is still pretty raw, though he does possess two prolific weapons and a new tight end in Vernon Davis. If he avoids mistakes, he could move the chains on a secondary that hasn’t been tested all that much this season.

While Osweiler is a question mark, what we do know is that Ronnie Hillman won’t eclipse the century mark again. His performance against the Bears will prove to be an aberration, as the last time the Patriots surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground was Week 2.

RECAP: I’m taking the Broncos here, as the public has yet to adjust to all of the Patriots’ injuries. If this game were in New England, the spread would be -9, which is just ridiculous. The Patriots, in their current state, are not six points better Broncos. No way.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if New England lost this game. At best, it’s is going to push. The Patriots simply can’t score consistently. Their offensive line sucks, and Brady has no one to throw to outside of Rob Gronkowski, who will be battling another tough defense against tight ends. Despite all this, the public is pounding the Patriots. It just seems too easy.

Here’s something interesting: Take a peek at the Patriots’ schedule, and look at the results of every solid team they’ve played thus far. This includes the Steelers, Bills, Colts, Jets, Giants and Bills again. New England is just 1-2-3 against the spread against those teams. Conversely, the Patriots are 4-0 ATS versus crap opponents: Jacksonville, Dallas (Brandon Weeden), Miami and Washington.

The Broncos fit under the former category, of course. I think we’re getting great value with them at +3, so I’m going to pick them for just as many units. My only concern is Brady’s record on Sunday Night Football (15-10 ATS, last SU loss being in 2012 versus the 49ers), but everything else trumps that.

FRIDAY UPDATES: No change here. The Broncos are still one of my top picks of the week. In fact, I’ll lock them in at +3, as this spread appears to be moving to +2.5 at some books.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s a game the sharps are betting. They love the Broncos. They’ve bet them so much that this spread moved off +3. You can still get +3 -115 at Bovada.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to pound the Broncos. This line has now gone down to +2. I’d lock in +3 -115 (Bovada) as soon as possible, so that might mean that you can win money with New England.

SUNDAY NIGHT: The sharps have the Broncos. The public has the Patriots. None of that matters, however, because I have the Broncos. This means that the Patriots will cover for sure. In fact, I guarantee it. New England could beat the spread legitimately, or perhaps an inept official will pull a Jeff Triplette and give New England a free first down on a phantom holding call, allowing them to both win and cover. Unreal.

Anyway, if you want to bet the Patriots, they’re available at -2.5 everywhere. You can even get -2.5 -106 at CRIS. If you’re crazy enough to like the Broncos – please do not bet them – they’re priced at +3 -105 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

I thought there’d be a lot more money on the Patriots early on. Here it comes.

Percentage of money on New England: 68% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Tom Brady is 184-59 as a starter (138-100 ATS).

Tom Brady is 10-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points. ???

Tom Brady is 15-10 ATS on Sunday Night Football.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 22, Patriots 20
Broncos +3 -115 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 30, Patriots 24

Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Line: Browns by 5.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -1.5.
Monday, Nov 30, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Browns.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Cleveland where the Cleveland Browns take on the Baltimore Colts! Guys, this game is absolutely worthless, and it’s a joke that an announcer of my caliber is being forced to broadcast it. The only thing good about it is that I’ll get a close look at Johnny Manziel for the first time all year. Guys, my Philadelphia Eagles need a quarterback and there’s talk that the Browns might trade Johnny Football. I think he’d be a great fit in Chip’s offense, guys. I want the Eagles to trade a first-round pick for him. Two first-round picks, if needed. I don’t care if this guy rolls $20s in bathrooms. He’s a winner and a great person, and he’d be great as the quarterback of my Philadelphia Eagles.

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Ahmad, I also do not see the problem with rolling $20s in the toilet room as well, too. Sometime when I come home from the bank, the bank tellered give me $20 bill and I fold them and put him in my pocket. Is there real different betwixt folding $20 bill and rolling $20 bill? I thinks not!

Millen: Emmitt, I was barely paying attention to you as always because I was using my binoculars to find 100-percent USDA Men in the crowd. However, I overheard you say, “put him in my pocket.” Do you really have a tiny man to put in your pocket? If so, can I borrow him? I would love a tiny 100-percent USDA Man to put in my pocket. He could wield a tiny kielbasa and insert it into my backside without telling me. That would be super exciting!

Herm: THEM! NOT HIM! IT’S THEM! NOT HIM! HE SAID THEM! NOT HIM! THERE’S NO HIM! NO HIM WHATSOEVER! NO HIM AT ALL! ONLY THEM! JUST THEM! HE SAID THEM! LET’S REVIEW THE TAPE! HERM HAS A TAPE! HERM TAPE RECORDED EMMITT! WHY DID HE TAPE RECORD EMMITT!? HE DOESN’T KNOW! LET’S ASK HERM! HERM, WHY DID YOU RECORD EMMITT!? HERM, ANSWER THE QUESTION PLEASE! HERM, ANSWER NOW! WHY ISN’T HERM ANSWERING!? OH WAIT, I’M HERM! I FORGOT I’M HERM! I DIDN’T REMEMBER I WAS HERM! I HAVE THE TAPE SO LET’S PLAY IT! “I folded them and put him in my pocket.” HERM IS MISTAKEN! HERM WAS WRONG! BUT HERM GOT THE GIST OF IT RIGHT! GOT IT CORRECT, NOW! GOT IT ACCURATE! EMMITT MEANT THEM! NOT HIM! HE MEANT TO SAY THEM! DIDN’T MEAN TO SAY HIM! HAD TO BE A MISTAKE! GOT TO HAVE BEEN A MISTAKE! ALMOST CERTAINLY A MISTAKE! LIKE THE MISTAKE HERM MADE BEFORE! I MEAN THE ONE I MADE BEFORE! BECAUSE I’M HERM, RIGHT!? AM I HERM, GUYS!? TELL ME IF I’M HERM! TELL ME… tell… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Can someone send this a**hole to the mental hospital already? Guys, we’ve gotten off-track. Can Johnny Manziel help my team get to the Promised Land?

Tollefson: Kevin, I don’t know about the Promised Land, but Johnny Football can definitely help you get laid! Johnny Football is the ultimate ladies man. Did you know that Johnny has 25 naked women cooking and cleaning his house at the exact same time? My record is eight, so Johnny is like a god to me. In fact, it’s so competitive there that a woman even had the audacity to post pictures of bruises claiming that they’re from Johnny, when in reality, she got those from the vacuum cleaner. I should know because many of my women get bruises all the time from vacuum cleaners, too.

Wolfley: I HATE VACUUM CLEANERS. MY NEIGHBOR DURING MY CHILDHOOD WAS A VACUUM CLEANER, AND WHENEVER I’D THROW A FOOTBALL INTO HIS YARD BY ACCIDENT, HE WOULD THREATEN TO VACUUM ME UP INTO HIS SACK WHERE I WOULD BE STUCK FOREVER. THAT’S WHY I TOLD MY WIFE THAT I NEVER WANT TO SEE A VACUUM CLEANER IN MY HOUSE.

Fouts: And here’s what Wolfley means my house. There are four types of dwellings that are possible. There’s mansion, apartment, shack and house. That’s exactly four. Not five, six, or seven. Not 15 either. Do you know what the first letters of all of those dwelling spell? MASH. And not the sort of mash that you can turn potatoes into. And not the TV show MASH either. I’ve never seen MASH. I had no interest in stuff being mashed, so I never bothered watching it. Call me crazy, but mashed potatoes are just not fun. If MASH happened to be about French fries, I would watch it. Even Spanish fries would be great. But I’ve gotten off track here. MASH is a game you play with your school friends to determine which dwelling you’ll live in and whom you’ll marry. This may seem silly, but it has 100-percent accuracy. Here, Charles Davis, you try it.

Charles Davis: OK, let me look at that, Dan. Let’s fill out the MASH paper, Dan. OK, Dan, I write with super speed, Dan. I also read super quickly, Dan. That’s how I know everything, Kevin. Now let’s see what my magic number is, Kevin. Oh, it’s five, Kevin. That’s one more than four, Kevin! Now let’s see, Kevin…

Reilly: WHY ARE YOU REFERRING TO ME!? YOU WERE TALKING TO DAN!

Charles Davis: …One, Kevin, two, Kevin, three, Kevin, four, Kevin, five, Kevin. Looks like I won’t be living in a house, apartment or shack, Kevin. That leaves mansion, Kevin. And guess whom I’ll be married to, Kevin? Not Alison Brie, Kevin. Not Jennifer Lawrence, Kevin. Not Angelina Jolie, Kevin. Looks like there’s one name left, Kevin. Guess who it is, Kevin. It’s Johnny Manziel, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT!? HOW COULD YOU MARRY JOHNNY MANZIEL!? NOW I DON’T WANT HIM ANYMORE! I HOPE YOU TWO HAVE A FAILED MARRIAGE AND BOTH DIE! AND WTF JOHNNY FOOTBALL ISN’T EVEN TAKING THE FIELD, IT’S THAT OLD IDIOT LUKE MCNOWN, WTF HAPPENED!?!?! We’ll be back right after this!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Kevin Reilly made not be aware of what happened, but I’m sure you’ve heard it by now. Johnny Manziel has been benched for pictures that surfaced on his birthday. As a result, the party is over for him in Cleveland.

I can’t say I’m surprised. I wrote it when it happened, and I’ve repeated it numerous times since: Manziel’s trip to rehab was bogus. It was a PR stunt. He never had any sort of desire to change. He’s just a dumb kid who doesn’t give a damn about his career, and he’d rather throw his life away hanging out in night clubs with losers. Unfortunately, this means that we can no longer bet against him, which was a winning proposition. Manziel has a 1-3 career ATS record, so that method of making money has gone up in smoke.

Josh McCown – not Luke McNown – is the better quarterback, anyway. Unlike Johnny Douchebag, he’ll take advantage of his opportunities against Baltimore’s woeful secondary. The Browns won’t be able to run the ball whatsoever, but the Ravens can’t defend wide receivers at all. Baltimore is solid against tight ends, but Travis Benjamin should have a solid evening.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It also sucks for Matt Schaub that Johnny Douchebag was benched, given that he was looking forward to being the superior quarterback in this game. Alas, McCown now holds that title. Either way, Schaub is terrible and has nothing left. I began searching for news on Joe Haden, Tashaun Gipson and Donte Whitner, and whether they’ll be available or not, but I quickly realized that it doesn’t matter. Schaub won’t be able to exploit any mismatches, even if he had talented receivers at his disposal, which he does not.

Having said that, the Ravens could have some success moving the chains with Buck Allen. Cleveland has a poor run defense, so Allen, who has looked decent in his opportunities, could perform well, both as a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: It sucks that Manziel was benched because I wanted to bet a unit or two on the Ravens. Manziel is auto-fade material, and there happens to be an 80-20 split on the action in favor of Cleveland, which is absurd. There was too much of a spread overreaction to the Ravens’ injuries, so the visitor seemed like a quality play.

I don’t like the Ravens nearly as much with McCown under center, but I still think they’re the right side. There could be some locker-room backlash from Mike Pettine’s decision, prompting some Cleveland players to quit. The idiots who like to party with Johnny Douchebag are surely upset, so I’d advise against betting the Browns – even if you don’t like the Ravens.

FRIDAY UPDATES: Nothing has changed for me here. I don’t want any part of either team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m changing my pick. I still think there’s a chance the Browns will quit, but the Ravens will be missing Eugene Monroe and Kelechi Osemele in addition to the players who were already injured. They’re a complete mess.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, this spread shot up through -3 and is now -3.5 most places (-4 at 5Dimes!) Crazy.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: I’m switching my pick again. This number has gotten too high. Stay tuned for another update.

FINAL FINAL THOUGHTS: No, not another pick change. I’m taking the Ravens at +5.5, just for the number. This spread just seems too high for a team that could have some locker room turmoil in the wake of Johnny Manziel’s benching. Plus, the Ravens still can do good things on the defensive side of the ball. There’s no way in hell I’d touch this game though. However, the sharps are all over Cleveland for some reason.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 56% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 13 of the last 15 meetings (Road Team has covered 9 of the last 11 non-pushes).

John Harbaugh is 1-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Browns are 9-18 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Browns 24, Ravens 21
Ravens +5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 33, Browns 27

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Philadelphia at Detroit, Carolina at Dallas, Chicago at Green Bay, Oakland at Tennessee, Buffalo at Kansas City, Tampa Bay at Indianapolis, New York Giants at Washington, New Orleans at Houston, Minnesota at Atlanta, St. Louis at Cincinnati, San Diego at Jacksonville, Miami at New York Jets

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Titans +7.5, Broncos +8.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

NFL Picks - Dec. 26

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 25

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 23

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,538-3,261-205, 52.0% (+$18,460)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,136-1,022-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 578-507-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,970-2,942-79 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-7	Bears: 6-7	Bucs: 8-6	49ers: 8-6
Eagles: 8-6	Lions: 11-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 10-4
Giants: 5-8	Packers: 10-3	Panthers: 5-9	Rams: 7-7
Redskins: 6-7	Vikings: 6-7	Saints: 6-8	Seahawks: 8-5

Bills: 6-8	Bengals: 3-11	Colts: 7-7	Broncos: 9-5
Dolphins: 6-8	Browns: 5-9	Jaguars: 5-7	Chargers: 7-6
Jets: 8-6	Ravens: 7-6	Texans: 6-7	Chiefs: 5-8
Patriots: 8-4	Steelers: 7-7	Titans: 8-5	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 28-35 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 25-20 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 40-36 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 26-37 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 46-64 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-10 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-20 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)

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