Week 8 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 21, 2:05 a.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 8 – Early Games
Raiders at Ravens, Chiefs at Jets, Bills at Dolphins, Falcons at Eagles, Buccaneers at Cowboys, Cardinals at Panthers, Chargers vs. Saints, Rams at Patriots, Redskins at Lions

NFL Picks Week 8 – Late Games
Bengals at Texans, Browns at Jaguars, Seahawks at 49ers, Giants at Steelers, Colts at Titans

BYE: Bears, Broncos, Packers, Vikings


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New England Patriots – New England’s massive victory over Denver makes them extremely overrated. People will see 34-0 and say, “Wow, New England is fine with Matt Cassel!” No they’re not. Jay Cutler was injured on the first play of the game. Cassel still can’t throw longer than 20 yards and the defense is slow and old.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Including the preseason, David Garrard hasn’t totally sucked only twice this year. Once was against the Texans. The other time was last week against Denver. What do those teams have in common? They both have horrible defenses. Meanwhile, Jacksonville surrendered 100 yards to Michael Pittman two weeks ago. Michael freaking Pittman! What happened to this defense?

3. Baltimore Ravens – I had the Ravens beating the Dolphins because Cam Cameron coached Miami last year and was very familiar with their personnel. However, people saw Baltimore kill the Dolphins, and are now laying tons of money on them despite the fact that they’re favored by seven. I’m still not confident in Joe Flacco, and it seems as though the public has forgotten all about how the Colts, who were ripped apart in Green Bay on Sunday, clobbered the Ravens two weeks ago.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Denver Broncos – The opposite of the Patriots 34-0 effect. People are down on the Broncos, who are still a very talented team. I’m still convinced they would have won if Jay Cutler didn’t get hurt on the first play of the game. Denver is very underrated going forward, as long as Cutler is OK.

2. New Orleans Saints – People remember the last thing they see. Well, they watched the Saints get completely debacled at Carolina. On ESPN, Jay Mariotti, Tim Cowlishaw and Michael Wilbon all said, “They’re done.” People are betting heavily on the Chargers -3.5 on a neutral field this week. In reality, the Saints could be 6-1 right now; they relinquished a huge lead to the Redskins. Martin Gramatica, meanwhile, missed two decisive field goals against Denver and Minnesota. They blasted the Raiders two weeks ago, and Oakland came back to beat the Jets.

3. Cleveland Browns – The Browns may be 2-4, but they’re actually 4-2 against the spread. They hung with the 5-1 Steelers, losing by just four. They stuck with the 5-2 Redskins, going down by just three. And as everyone witnessed two weeks ago, they absolutely smoked the Giants.















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)