NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2021

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at San Francisco 49ers (7-6)
Line: 49ers by 9. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It was unclear if Deebo Samuel would play heading into last week, but he was a surprise active. He, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk all scored touchdowns in a win versus Cincinnati, though it’s worth noting that the 49ers were outgained by the Bengals and averaged fewer yards per play. Ten of their points came off two muffed punts.

This is a much easier matchup, so San Francisco’s offense will be much more potent this week. The Falcons have improved defensively lately, but they still have major holes on this side of the ball. They can’t pressure the quarterback or defend the middle of the field at all. The latter is a death sentence against the 49ers, who attack the middle of the field so well with Samuel and Kittle.

The Falcons have been better in the secondary, so that’s at least a bonus. A.J. Terrell has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this year, so he’ll be able to handle Aiyuk. The Falcons’ decent run defense will do well versus Elijah Mitchell, assuming he even plays.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons also like to attack the middle of the field. Of course, it’s the only way they can score any points because their best offensive threats are Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage.

The problem here is that the 49ers can handle this area very well with Fred Warner healthy again. San Francisco defends tight ends well, while slot cornerback K’Waun Williams is the best player at his position on the team.

The 49ers are at their weakest on the outside because they have severe cornerback injury woes. The Falcons can’t expose this liability, however, because of Calvin Ridley’s absence. Atlanta’s outside receivers are horrible, while the horrible offensive line won’t give Matt Ryan any time to target them. Ryan will have San Francisco pass rushers breathing down his neck in this game.

RECAP: If the 49ers are focused, they shouldn’t have a difficult time against the Falcons. They’ll attack the middle of the field easily against an Atlanta squad that has only beaten terrible teams this year. The Falcons have prevailed over the Giants, Jets, Dolphins (when they were bad), Saints, Jaguars and Panthers. They haven’t been competitive against the better squads in the NFL, and the 49ers certainly qualify as such.

That said, the 49ers are coming off an emotional overtime win, and they have to begin preparing for the Titans this upcoming Thursday. They’re huge favorites in this contest, so they may not be focused on lowly Atlanta. Thus, I’ll stay away from betting this contest.

THURSDAY NOTES: I discussed this on the podcast video (see below), but I think it’s less likely that the 49ers will look past the Falcons because Atlanta would jump ahead of them in the playoff race.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still on the 49ers for no units. If the Falcons had the outside receivers to take advantage of the 49ers’ cornerback problem, I’d bet Atlanta.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It appears as though there’s some sharp action creeping in on the Falcons. The Bookmaker line went down to +8. I still wouldn’t bet the 49ers at that price.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Never mind what I said about the sharps being on the Falcons. This line is -9 in most sportsbooks, but you can get -8.5 -112 at FanDuel. Nine isn’t a key number, so I’d rather go with the -9 -108 at Bookmaker if you want to bet the 49ers.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Denver Broncos (7-6)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: There were major questions about the health of Joe Burrow entering the 49er contest, but he showed that there were no ill effects immediately when he put some zip on his passes. He had to engineer a late-game comeback that went into overtime in that contest because the Bengals constantly shot themselves in the foot. There were two muffed punts that gave the 49ers 10 points, while Ja’Marr Chase dropped two big passes, including one potential touchdown.

Chase had a very easy matchup against the 49er cornerbacks last week. This contest won’t be as easy for Chase, given the talent the Broncos have at cornerback. Burrow could make up for that, however, as he’ll be battling a Denver defense that blitzes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. Burrow is excellent versus the blitz, so this type of matchup benefits him, despite all the talent the Broncos have at cornerback.

Also, Denver isn’t very good at defending the middle of the field because of its two injured linebackers. Burrow will be able to exploit this area with passes to Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Bengals have played excellently on defense this year unless they’ve been matched up with a superior pass defense. They’re ranked ninth in both run stopping and pressure rate. Only top-ranked signal-callers have beaten them like Justin Herbert a couple of weeks ago.

It’s safe to say that Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t belong in this pantheon, especially if he doesn’t get support from his running backs. Javonte Williams has been exceptional in recent weeks, but this is a difficult matchup for both him and Melvin Gordon.

That said, the Bengals will have issues defending the middle of the field if they don’t get linebacker Logan Wilson back from injury. It’s sounding like Wilson, the best linebacker on the team by far, won’t be able to play. That’ll be a huge boon for Bridgewater, who could attack the Cincinnati defense with his talented tight ends as well as Jerry Jeudy.

RECAP: The Broncos have been outplayed by the other three AFC North teams this year, so I don’t see why this contest would be any different. The Bengals, who are underrated after outgaining the 49ers last week, have the run defense to limit the Denver defensive backs. Bridgewater will have to beat Cincinnati, and I don’t see that happening.

I like the line value we’re getting with the Bengals. I don’t know why, but the advance spread of Cincinnati -2.5 didn’t hold up very well. This number moved four points based on last week’s results, which doesn’t seem logical. Granted, no key numbers were crossed, but I believe the Bengals are the better team and should be favored.

THURSDAY NOTES: The sharps are on the Broncos. The public is backing the Bengals, but the pros are moving this line in favor of Denver. Cincinnati’s top cornerback, Chidobe Awuzie, will be out with a cold. If only he wore a hazmat suit!

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have brought this line to -3, thanks perhaps to the Bengals’ injuries. However, the Broncos won’t have their top three linebackers. I’m staying off this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s so much sharp action on the Broncos. The Bengals look appealing at +3, but it seems like a trap. I’m staying away.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned on multiple occasions, the sharps are all over the Broncos. I suspect it’s because they expect Joe Burrow to struggle versus Denver’s pressure. That’s definitely possible, but all value is gone with Denver already.

Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Line: Packers by 9. Total: 45.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Both quarterbacks have injury issues entering this game. Aaron Rodgers told the media that his toe is even worse now, suffering a setback versus Chicago. Rodgers was already barely practicing, so it’s possible that this setback could really hinder him.

Then again, Rodgers could be trolling the media again. Rodgers previously implied that his toe kills only old folks in nursing homes, yet he has performed masterfully despite the injury. I’ll believe it when I see it, as Rodgers is a quarterback who has cried wolf far too many times.

Assuming this is more bulls**t from Rodgers, he has a tremendous matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore famously has so many injuries to its secondary, including both starting cornerbacks. The Ravens had major problems dealing with Donovan Peoples-Jones last week, so how are they going to cover Davante Adams with Rodgers throwing the ball to him?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson’s health is also in question. He has an ankle injury that he suffered in the first half against the Browns, and he is now “day to day.” It remains to be seen if he’ll play in this game, and whether he’ll be healthy if he can.

Jackson’s mobility obviously means more to him than it does to Rodgers. He has made strides as a passer this year, but he’s still just a mediocre quarterback if he can’t use his scrambling ability. The Packers can get to the quarterback, as Justin Fields learned Sunday night, and the Ravens will have protection issues if Patrick Mekari is sidelined once again. If he is, the Ravens will be down multiple starters on the offensive line.

The Packers’ defensive weakness is their inability to stop the run, and the Ravens won’t be able to take advantage of that, especially if Jackson is hurt. Devonta Freeman has enjoyed some nice moments, but he’s been able to benefit from teams focusing on Jackson. I have to believe that Freeman will go back to looking like an old, decrepit back with teams being able to key in on him.

RECAP: This is a first. I’ve considered the Packers overrated all year, and when I’ve made my lines, my projections have always been short of the actual spread. That is not the case this time; this spread is actually short of what I made it (-5.5).

The reason for this is because I also believe the Ravens are overrated. They’re 8-5 right now, but they’ve played like a 6-7 team this year. That isn’t even taking Jackson’s injury into account.

Of course, Jackson may not even play. If he sits, and this spread is insanely high, I may pick the Ravens as a value play. As it stands right now, however, I’ll be on the Packers. I’m not sure if I’m going to bet this game yet, as we need some more clarity on the injured quarterbacks.

THURSDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson’s status will reportedly come down to the wire, which is not a positive for his health even if he plays. Having a limited Jackson under center will make it difficult for the Ravens to keep this game close.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens are a mess right now. Forget Lamar Jackson for a second. They’re going to be down their top two cornerbacks and top two safeties against Aaron Rodgers, and on top of that, they won’t have two starting offensive linemen and Calais Campbell! As for Jackson, there’s a chance he’ll play. He didn’t practice at all, so he probably won’t be 100 percent even if he takes the field. I think I’m going to bet the Packers just in case Jackson is out. If he plays, we’ll miss out on a good number, but Green Bay could still cover this anyway.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I feel like such a square for not betting the Packers earlier, but I’m not going to wait any longer. Lamar Jackson is likely to be out, so when that’s announced, this line will rise even higher. I know I’ve said I like betting on good teams playing their backup quarterbacks, but Baltimore is down its top three cornerbacks, top two safeties, best defensive player (Calais Campbell) and two offensive linemen. That doesn’t sound like a good team to me!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson is out. This line hasn’t moved much, rising to -9.5 in some books. Bookmaker still has -9 -108. The sharps were on Green Bay at a much lesser price.

Seattle Seahawks (5-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 47.
Tuesday, Dec. 21, 7:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson didn’t fare too well in this matchup the last time these teams clashed. That was the game in which he dislocated his middle finger, forcing him to miss several weeks of action.

Wilson has historically struggled against the Rams, as the dominant Los Angeles defensive front always puts heavy pressure on him. That should once again be the case, thanks to Wilson’s shaky protection. Meanwhile, Jalen Ramsey will be able to limit D.K. Metcalf, so the rest of the defense can focus on Tyler Lockett.

The Seahawks finally found a running game last week, with Rashaad Penny finally looking like a first-round pick. I wouldn’t expect Penny to repeat what he did versus Houston, however, as the Rams happen to possess one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: For a while, it appeared as though the Seahawks were going to lose to the Texans. They allowed an opening touchdown drive and couldn’t get Houston’s offense off the field. Seattle began its third drive with 6:01 remaining in the second quarter.

This was against Davis Mills and a Houston offensive line missing both of its talented offensive tackles. The Rams, conversely, have a talented quarterback and tons of lethal skill players, though Odell Beckham Jr. will miss this contest with a cold. Matthew Stafford is protected well and shouldn’t see any pressure from Seattle’s mediocre pass rush. The Seahawks’ secondary won’t be able to deal with Stafford’s weapons either.

What’s really going to hurt Seattle is its inability to defend the middle of the field. The Seahawks are weak to tight ends and slot receivers, which doesn’t bode well for them with a matchup against Cooper Kupp this Sunday.

RECAP: A couple of weeks ago, I backed the Seahawks over the 49ers because Seattle had dominated San Francisco over the years. This rivalry goes the other way, as the Rams have squashed the Seahawks on nearly opportunity because they can take advantage of Seattle’s liabilities.

With that in mind, I think this initial spread of -7 was too short. I believed the Rams should have been favored by about 10 or 10.5. Given that the Seahawks won last week, I think it’s easy to forget that they had trouble getting control against the Texans. They beat the 49ers the week before, but they were outgained by 1.7 yards per play, which is a substantial amount.

However, this spread dropped from -7 to -5 because the Rams had to close their facilities due to a cold outbreak. I think this is way too much of an overreaction, and I will gladly bet the Rams, though we’ll have to see exactly who they’ll be missing in this contest. This might end up being a huge bet depending on who’s available and what the spread is.

THURSDAY NOTES: The Rams have numerous players on the virus list as well. This line has fallen to -4.5 as a result. It’s unknown yet who will be available for them, and the Seahawks for that matter, as Tyler Lockett tested positive on Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: This game was re-scheduled for Tuesday, so I’ll have updates later once we know who’s playing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ll have an update on Tuesday because we have no idea who’s playing yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here are the missing players for the Rams: RB Cam Akers, WR Robert Woods, TE Tyler Higbee, G Joseph Noteboom, DL Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Troy Reeder, CB Donte Deayon, S Jordan Fuller. The Seahawks, meanwhile, won’t have D.J. Reed or Brandon Shell. Reed’s absence is huge because that means the Seahawks will be down their top two cornerbacks against the Rams’ passing attack. I liked the Rams in this game anyway because they always dominate the Seahawks. The problem is that this spread is so large that Russell Wilson could easily generate a back-door cover at the end. If anything, the Rams first-half line is the play. I’m going to bet a unit on Los Angeles -4 -109 in the first half at Bookmaker.

New Orleans Saints (6-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 11.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I thought Tom Brady would have a very difficult time against the Bills’ defense last week. Buffalo had the formula to defeat Brady, which is to pressure heavily with four linemen and play tight coverage underneath. The Bills, however, didn’t get the memo, as they blitzed Brady heavily. Brady is stellar against the blitz, so it’s no surprise that this strategy flopped.

The Saints, conversely, know exactly how to battle Brady. They’ve had his number in the regular season, limiting him to 23, 3 and 27 points in their previous three regular-season meetings. New Orleans can get to the quarterback as long as Cameron Jordan is available – Jordan was out with a cold last week – and they do so without blitzing. The Saints blitz very infrequently and can erase opposing No. 1 receivers, so they’ll be able to frustrate Brady and Mike Evans again.

Furthermore, the Saints have one of the top defenses when it comes to shutting down the run. They’ll put the clamps on Leonard Fournette, which will further stymie the Buccaneer offense.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints will struggle to score on the Buccaneers as well. This wouldn’t be the case if Drew Brees were still their quarterback, as he would be able to take advantage of Tampa’s pass-funnel defense. Taysom Hill may have been able to, but he’s not 100 percent.

Hill has something called Ryan Mallett finger, which limits his throwing. Hill attempted nothing but short tosses against the Jets, so he won’t be able to fully take advantage of the Buccaneers’ secondary.

That said, Alvin Kamara will still have some great gains. Kamara’s return last week was a huge boon for the Saints’ offense, as he was featured extremely prominently. Kamara won’t find much running room versus Tampa’s stout ground defense, but he’ll serve as a terrific receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: This spread is too high for a fierce rivalry that has been dominated by the Saints. New Orleans knows exactly how to limit Brady. They won’t make the same blunders the Bills committed.

Even without having knowledge of the dynamics of this rivalry, we can still determine that this line is too high. The computer model made this spread Tampa Bay -7. Last week’s DVOA numbers are even more bearish on the Buccaneers, projecting a -5.5. line.

On top of the line value, the Buccaneers could be a bit flat as big favorites following a win in overtime against a potential Super Bowl opponent. As you can tell, I like the Saints, but I’m not sure if I can bet them because Hill clearly isn’t 100 percent.

THURSDAY NOTES: I like the Saints at the moment, but both of their tackles missed Wednesday’s practice. I was considering a bet on New Orleans, but I don’t think I could pull the trigger if both of them are sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was considering putting a bet on the Saints, but they’re missing their top two tackles. It’s going to be even more difficult for them to score. I almost switched to Tampa.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I’m disappointed the top two tackles are out. I wanted to bet the Saints, but can’t under these circumstances.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are down three key defensive backs. This would lead me to betting the Saints, but again, they’re down their top two tackles, which is a big deal. There’s no sharp action of note. If you still want to bet the Saints, the best line is +11.5 -105 at Bovada and FanDuel.

Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Chicago Bears (4-9)
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 44.5.
Monday, Dec. 20, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, where tonight, the Minnesota Twins battle the Chicago Bulls. Guys, my Philadelphia Eagles are the best football team on the planet, and everyone knows it. If you hate my Philadelphia Eagles then you are a sworn enemy of mine, and I will eventually kill you. But I have to say that I have a small place in my heart for the Chicago Bulls as a second football team.

Emmitt: Duck Soup, you not gonna be consider a gangster if you has two team in the National Football. I also have two team as well. I play for the Cowboy for most of my careerness, but I also play for the other team, the one that have red bird. I forgot him’s name.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think you’re referring to the Arizona Falcons. But my second team is the Chicago Bulls because Mother’s favorite player except for me was Mike Ditka. When we used to watch him coach a long time ago with his manly mustache, Mother used to say, “There’s your Real Daddy.”

Tollefson: Kevin, I suddenly have even more respect for Mike Ditka than I did before, which I didn’t think was possible because of his manly mustache. That’s great that he banged your mom, Kevin. And I didn’t know you were Ditka’s son. Maybe there’s some room for you in my female sex slave expedition after all!

Reilly: Tolly, for the millionth time, I can’t partake in your female sex slave trade because Mother says I’m too immature to talk to women. But I don’t know if Mike Ditka is really my father. I always have taken it as she wished he was my dad, or something. Hold on, guys, Adam Schefter is hiding under my desk again, and I think he has something to say.

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I’ve been hiding from the Omnicron variant for the past week, where I’ve been eating nothing but dingleberries this entire time. We have breaking news, and not some e-mail this time. I hold in my hands a DNA test I obtained by stealing some of your nail clippings and Mike Ditka’s nose hairs. I was holding this story until Andrew Berry gave me the green light to report it, and here it is: Mike Ditka, is in fact, your father, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: What!? Mother was telling the truth the entire time!? Mike Ditka is Real Daddy? Don’t worry, New Daddy, you’re still my real Real Daddy, and not Mike Ditka, who is a fake Real Daddy!

Jay Cutler: Meh, Ditka can have you.

Reilly: Come on, New Daddy, you’re supposed to like me! I’m your son!

Joe Biden: I have a son. His name is, you know, you know the thing. He was a great hero, he died in combat, so how dare you besmirch his name! He’s a great artist now, and he’s selling his finger paintings for a lot of money. He’s making so much money that we don’t need to get those forgivable loans from Ukraine anymore, but we’ll get those anyway. I’ll make so much money that I’ll be able to take out my girlfriend to the dentist for a date. She goes to see Brushy the Clown where they have arcade games in the lobby. I sniff every patient’s hair while waiting for my girlfriend’s baby teeth to be pulled, end of message.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone just hear what Sleepy Creepy Joe just said? He just admitted that he stole money from Urkaine. Who knows how many other s**t-hole countries Sleepy Joe has stolen from! He’s probably stolen from a lot. I call it, the art of the steal! Isn’t that great? I call it the art of the steal because it rhyme with my book, Art of the Deal. That’s pretty creative, don’t you think? It’s one of the most creative names ever created, and everyone agrees. Everyone says I’m the best at making nicknames. I wouldn’t say I’m the best at creating nicknames, but I’m pretty great at it. People tell me I’m the best, and I told them I’m not the best, but so many people have said I’m the best, so I must be the best. I didn’t say I’m the best, but if enough people say I’m the best, then I must be the best at these nicknames, and everyone agrees!

Wolfley: DONALD, I LOVE YOUR JOKE ABOUT THE ART OF THE STEAL. IT’S ONE OF THE BEST JOKES I’VE EVER HEARD IN MY LIFE, AND MY BEST FRIEND WAS RANKED AS THE THIRD-BEST COMIC OF THE PLANET OF CAPRICA BEFORE THE CYLONS DESTROYED IT.

Reilly: Guys, you’re not focusing on what matters most! Mike Ditka is Real Daddy. Maybe he’ll give me an allowance!

Alec Baldwin: Bang! Bang! Bang! Give me that allowance or I’ll continue to shoot you even though I’m not shooting you at all! Bang! Bang! Bang! It’s someone’s fault that someone is shooting you, but it’s certainly not my fault! Bang! Bang! Bang!

Reilly: Alec, you’re not even close to hitting me! You’re like a storm trooper your aim is so bad!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing sci-fi movies, Kevin. You began with Star Wars, Kevin, which is a great starting point, Kevin! Let’s discuss other sci-fi movies, Kevin. How about Star Trek, Kevin? There are lots of Star Trek movies, Kevin, even those J.J. Abrams ruined, Kevin. What do yu think about Dune, Kevin? How about the Tomorrow War, Kevin? Let’s chat about Tener, Kevin. Let’s get to some more classics, Kevin. We can begin with Alien, Kevin. Let’s discuss the Matrix, Kevin. Who can forget about the Terminator, Kevin? Let’s not forget Predator, Kevin. And how about we finish with a movie I made, Kevin, and while I don’t have a title for it yet, Kevin, I’ll give you the synopsis, Kevin. It’s about a fat football announcer, Kevin, and this fat football announcer doesn’t know who his real daddy is, Kevin, so someone who works with him fed fake info to a famous reporter, Kevin, and then the famous reporter reported it, Kevin, and the fat football announcer believed it, Kevin!

Reilly: HAHAHAHA WHAT A LOSER! I’ll have to watch this movie with Real Daddy once it comes out in the theater! We’ll be back after this!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I mentioned this in the opening paragraphs of the early picks page, but Justin Fields banged his ribs in the second half against the Packers, which may have limited his ability late in the game. Of course, it didn’t help that left tackle Jason Peters was knocked out in the first quarter.

It’s unclear if Fields and/or Peters will be able to suit up, but they’ll both be needed. The Vikings have the No. 3 pressure defense in the NFL, so a Peters-less offensive line won’t be able to keep Minnesota’s defensive front out of the backfield. And if Peters is missing, Fields’ legs will be needed because Andy Dalton and Nick Foles won’t stand a chance.

There is some hope for the Bears, however. Minnesota’s run defense is weak, so David Montgomery figures to have some nice gains. Meanwhile, the Vikings struggle to defend the slot, so that should mean that Darnell Mooney will be able to rebound from his dud performance on Sunday night.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: This Chicago defense is not your older brother’s Chicago defense. The Bears haven’t been able to stop anyone since losing Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. I think back to the 49ers game where San Francisco didn’t punt once. Then, on Sunday night, Aaron Rodgers basically did whatever he pleased in the second half. There’s a chance Hicks could play to help matters, but he’s looked like a shell of his former self whenever he has attempted to play recently.

To get to the specifics of how bad the Bears are on this side of the ball, they have the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL; only the Falcons and Colts get to the quarterbacks less frequently. This isn’t helpful to a secondary that has struggled to cover all year.

The Bears are better against the run, though only by default. They’ve been inept in this regard since losing Hicks to injury. This obviously means great things for Dalvin Cook, whose great rushes will make things easy for Kirk Cousins.

RECAP: I could make the argument for the Bears at this price if I knew that Fields and Peters were healthy. However, there’s a chance at least one will miss this game, and if Fields even plays, he could be hindered by his injury.

I’m not in love with this game at the moment, but I’m going to side with the Vikings. I think this spread is too low. I made this line Minnesota -5, and so did the computer. Last week’s DVOA numbers have this at Minnesota -5.5.

THURSDAY NOTES: Bears right tackle Larry Borom may miss this game, which is a huge deal if Jason Peters is also sidelined. This spread is too small, so I’m going to increase my unit count in all likelihood.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jason Peters has been declared out. Larry Borom will also be sidelined, which means the Bears will be down their starting tackles against Minnesota’s great pass rush. This is a huge edge to the Vikings, though this spread has inflated enough that all the value is gone. I still like the Vikings enough to bet a couple of units on them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we get a better line than -6, but the sharps moved this spread up, so it’ll take other pro money to bring it back down.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for getting something better than -6. The sharps have been pounding the Vikings wildly, even bringing this spread up to -7! This is because the Bears will be down numerous players, including SEVEN defensive backs. I don’t know how they’re going to be competitive with the Vikings, especially when considering that Justin Fields won’t have Jason Peters’ pass protection. The best line is -7 -105 at numerous sportsbooks (BetUS, Bovada, FanDuel).