NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl XLIX

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2014): 8-8 (-$130)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2014): 11-5 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2014): 10-6 (+$80)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2014): 2-2 (+$160)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2014): 3-1 (+$900)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2014): 2-0 (+$300)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)

NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 1, 5:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 18 NFL Picks – Saturday Games

New England Patriots (14-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-4)
Line: Patriots by 1.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -2.
Sunday, Feb. 1, 6:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

WEEK 20 RECAP: I won’t have a winning year for the 2014 season, but I’m at least happy that I was able to finish well. In the previous five weeks, I’ve been 28-14 for +$1,540. This, of course, came after the disastrous Week 15 in which I made Johnny Manziel and the Browns my December NFL Pick of the Month. Following that debaclation, I made a change in terms of my handicapping, as I simplified my Excel sheet, which really made me see the games clearly. At least I hope this is the reason why I’ve been better.

PLAYOFF TRENDS: This hasn’t happened in this year’s playoffs until Championship Sunday. No team had scored 40 points – until the Patriots did so versus the Colts.

Why is this important? Well, teams that have scored 40-plus in the playoffs are just 3-22 against the spread in their following game since 1996! The last time a team posted 40-plus points, the Patriots went on to lose to Denver in last year’s AFC Championship.

The reasoning behind this is simple. A team that scores that many points will have the spread inflated in their favor because the public loves to bet on offense. These teams also get overconfident; they slaughter an inferior team and think they’ll prevail just as easily, but that tends not to be the case versus superior opponents.

HATE MAIL: Last week, I posted some hate mail from a guy named Jerry Jackson. Here was one of his posts:

Jerry embarrassed himself some more, wagering $500 on Oregon just because I had Ohio State. I tried to find that post on my Facebook page, but he deleted it. He then threatened me with a lawsuit with a fictional attorney because I used his name. I laughed at him and noted that anything posted on Facebook is public domain. He deleted that as well.

Fortunately, Jerry didn’t delete one of his threads. He posted a fictional link of me losing out on a Powerball prize – even though I’ve never played the lottery – and hilarity naturally ensued.

Jerry was pwned pretty brutally. He obviously didn’t post anything after that, save for asking, “When are you posting your Super Bowl pick, fat man?” I’m sure Jerry will stay silent until my next bad week, when he’ll pretend that he wagered hundreds of dollars he doesn’t have on the team I didn’t pick.

RANDOM NFL NOTES: I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’ve been asked about my opinion on Deflate-gate by pretty much everyone I know. I seriously can’t escape it. If I go to the gym, “Hey, Walt, what do you think about the Patriots?” At the bar: “Yo, Walt, what do you think should happen to those cheaters?” Even my parents and girlfriend sought my opinion. I haven’t written about it because, well, I don’t really care about it. I find the story incredibly boring.

I’m not quite sure why that is. Maybe it’s because Tom Brady actually performed better when the balls had regulation PSI. Perhaps it’s because other quarterbacks, including Brad Johnson, have come out and said that they’ve deflated footballs themselves. Or, it could be that the Patriots were already caught cheating, and Spygate was a billion times worse.

I don’t even care about the Patriots cheating like this. I’m a big proponent of cheating unless you’re hurting someone else. I’m not going to sit here and cry about it like Mark Brunell. In fact, I’m going to tell you that the NFL loves this whole scandal. It has everyone talking about it, and this Super Bowl has generated more buzz than it normally would have. The ratings are going to skyrocket for this game, making the NFL’s negotiation for the next TV deal even stronger. If you’re wondering why the league is dragging its feet by not talking to Brady or handing out a punishment, it’s for that reason. If they penalized New England already, it would take the luster out of the story, and everyone would move on to something else. Instead, all anyone, except for me, cares about is Deflate-Gate.

Having said all of that, New England should be punished. Cheating’s fine with me, but there should be a penalty to act as a deterrent; otherwise, everyone would do it. A big fine and a loss of a second-round pick sounds reasonable – assuming the NFL can find tangible evidence that the Patriots cheated. We already know that one of the ball boys went into the bathroom with the balls – perhaps to do unspeakable things to them along with his butt buddy Matt Millen – but there apparently is no concrete link connecting him and Brady/Belichick. One of them is most definitely involved – my money is on Tom “This is not Isis, so who cares lol” Brady – but the NFL has to actually come up with some proof.

Whether they do or not doesn’t really concern me. Like I said, I don’t really care about Deflate-Gate. I say if Brady wants to hold and caress deflated balls, let him.

2. I’m more worked up over Josh Gordon. Sure, he violated his rules of probation, and he’s a complete imbecile, but is the league really going to suspend a guy for having a couple of drinks at his house?

Here’s what gets me: There is no malice in Gordon’s actions. He’s doing dumb stuff, but DUI aside, he’s not hurting anyone but himself. Meanwhile, the NFL was more than willing to give Ray Rice a two-game suspension for slugging his wife before the public became inexplicably outraged upon seeing the tape, when it was already known what Rice did.

Expanding on this is reader English Dave, who sent over this e-mail:

Ray Lewis murdered someone … ah, let’s forget about it. Ben Roethlisberger raped an underage girl …ah, let’s forget about that too. Josh Gordon has a beer at home in the offseason …BAN HIM FOR LIFE!!!!!!!!! In fact, that’s lenient, do they have the electric chair in Ohio?

Seriously, it’s stupid. The league needs to take a step back and evaluate its idiotic rules.

3. Something dumber than the NFL’s stance on Gordon? The Pro Bowl. Once again, I didn’t watch it. In fact, I’ve never watched it. Not a single time. I’ve seen almost every preseason game in the past decade, yet I have never tuned into the Pro Bowl for even a minute. It just seems like a boring, stupid game to me. The players don’t try, so what’s the point? The preseason at least offers a chance to learn something about fantasy or to check out how the rookies are doing; the Pro Bowl, on the other hand, is utterly useless.

The ratings were down for this year’s Pro Bowl, so perhaps the public is catching on to how crappy the game is. I think they should discontinue it. If I were in charge, I would just name the Pro Bowl rosters and give everyone on it $50,000 and a free trip to Hawaii. After all, being distinguished as a “Pro Bowler” is more significant than actually playing in the game.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is going to the Flyers game.

Oh, and if you missed it: the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts and the seventh season of Emmitt on the Brink are complete.

This week on NBC, we’re going to have Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to Arizona, home of the University of the Phoenixes, and this year’s Super Bowl! In the game this year we have the New England Patriots and those no-good rotting cheaters and the Seattle Seahawks. Guys, I know I’m supposed to be unbiased for these games, and I usually am, but I hope Tom Brady chokes on someone’s wang and then dies on the field. Brady is a cheat, Belichick is a cheat, and my Eagles should’ve won Super Bowl 39. E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

Emmitt: Tywin, I actually agree on you once for a change for the firstest time. Tom Brady got founded guilty of blowing up the balls. He put so much oxygen and helium into the football that the ball float up high in the air so the other team cannot interception it. And then the ball fall back down to Earth because gravity is 98 times per square foots, and his teammate catch the ball.

Reilly: Actually, it’s the other way around, Emmitt. Brady loves deflated balls. Get it? Like he’s a homo and he loves balls?

Millen: There’s nothing wrong with deflated balls, Kevin. Some of the most 100-percent USDA Men I know how deflated balls. Luckily, they make up for it with extra-long kielbasas, which they are prolific at ramming into my backside. I then grab on to their deflated balls, which are hopefully above 8 PSI, and then I ride those young stallions all night long!

Herm: NOT THOSE KIND OF DEFLATED BALLS! NOT THOSE KIND OF BALLS! DIFFERENT KIND OF BALLS! DIFFERENT; NOT SIMILAR! DIFFERENT IS THE ANTONYM OF SIMILAR! SIMILAR IS THE ANTONYM OF DIFFERENT! DIFFERENT AND ANTONYM ARE NOT SYNONYMS! I MEAN DIFFERENT AND SIMILAR ARE NOT SYNONYMS! THAT MEANS THEY’RE NOT THE SAME! AND THAT MEANS THEY’RE ANTONYMS! AND NOT SYNONYMS! SYNONYMS AND ANTONYMS ARE ANTONYMS! BUT ANTONYMS AND ANTONYMS ARE SYNONYMS! THEY ARE ALSO HOMONYMS! BUT HOMONYMS AND ANTONYMS ARE NOT SYNONYMS! HOMONYMS AND SYNONYMS ARE NOT SYNONYMS EITHER EVEN THOUGH SYNONYMS AND SYNONYMS ARE SYNONYMS AND HOMONYMS BUT NOT ANTONYMS! HERM’S EARS ARE BLEEDING! HERM GAVE HIMSELF A SEIZURE TALKING ABOUT SYNONYMS, ANTONYMS AND HOMONYMS! HERM NEEDS TO LIE DOWN FOR A WHILE!

Reilly: Shut up, idiot! Go have a seizure and die with Brady and Belichick! Can’t believe the NFL hasn’t caught them in the act yet!

Fouts: And here’s how I would catch them in the act! First, I would get a video camera. A video camera is a camera that captures videos. It can be found at the video camera store, which is a store that sells video cameras. They might sell beach chairs as well, but that would make it a video camera and beach chair store! I would go to the video camera and beach chair store, buy the video camera but not the beach chair, then I would set up the video camera in the Patriots’ bathroom. I would…

Tollefson: I already have set up a video camera in the Patriots’ cheerleaders’ bathroom, and let me tell you, there are some beautiful women I’ve seen naked who I want to just tell, “Baby, go make me a ham sandwich, vacuum my house and then make sweet, sweet love to me while dusting the nightstand.”

Fouts: …I would then watch the tape from the video camera and on my beach chair. That means I went back to the video camera and beach chair store and bought a beach chair! I’d watch the tape after that. To do that, I’d have to keep my eyes open. This means not keeping them closed and keeping them open instead, which is the opposite of closed. Then, I would see if anyone deflated the balls. I’ve heard that 12 PSI is normal. Perhaps they’d go to 11 PSI, which is one less than 12 PSI. Or maybe they’d do 10 PSI, which is two less. Or maybe even 9 PSI, which is three less than 12, two less than 11 and one less than 10. Or maybe they’d go to 8 PSI, which is four less than 12, three less than 11, two less than…

Reilly: We get it already! Good God, I wish we just had someone to kill the Patriots already.

Kim Jong-un: I kirr arr Patriot! Patriot is another word carr American. I want kirr arr American because they raugh at my inabirity to say the retter R. And by R I mean the retter “R” not the retter than come after Q but the retter that come after K. Why are arr you rooking rike I’m crazy? I know retter R not come after retter K, but the retter R I’m trying to a say come after a retter Q. Damn it American and your difficurt-to-say retters!

Emmitt: It seem to me that for once for a change for the firstest time, I’m not the one who are confuse by the alphabet!

Kim Jong-un: Damn you Emmitt a Smith, I no a confuse about arphabet; I just cannot say arphabet or say retters in a arphabet!!!

Charles Davis: Kim and Kevin, there aren’t two letter Rs in the English language, Kim and Kevin. There are no two letter As in the English language either, Kim and Kevin. There aren’t any two letter Bs in the English language either, Kim and Kevin. Oh, you think there might be two letter Cs in the English language, Kim and Kevin? Try again, Kim and Kevin! How about two letter Ds, Kim and Kevin? Nope, Kim and Kevin, not the case Kim and Kevin! Oh, you think there’s the possibility of two letter Es in the English language, Kim and Kevin? Guess again, Kim and Kevin! Let’s see if you can figure out which letter there are two of in the English language, Kim and Kevin! You think there are two Ps in the English language, Kim and Kevin? Wrong, Kim and Kevin! Oh, you seem to believe there are two 5s in the English language, Kim and Kevin? That’s not even a letter, Kim and Kevin! Looks like you’re about to give up, Kim and Kevin! There are no duplicate letters in the English language, after all, Kim and Kevin!

Reilly: I KNOW THAT YOU F***TARD! WHY’D YOU GROUP ME WITH THAT CHINESE A**HOLE ANYWAY!? GOD DAMN I’M GLAD THIS SEASON IS F***ING OVER SO I DON’T HAVE TO F***ING DEAL WITH YOU ANYMORE! I DON’T EVEN CARE IF TOM BRADY LIVES NOW BECAUSE I JUST WANT TO BE F***ING DONE WITH YOU AND THE REST OF THESE F***TARDS! F*** ALL OF YOU! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Of course, any game analysis has to begin with the Patriots’ scoring attack, thanks to Deflate-Gate. The notion that Brady could possibly struggle because the balls are at normal PSI is absurd. Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and I highly doubt he has played his entire career with deflated balls (insert corny joke here). Besides, Brady was actually better in the second half of the AFC Championship, which was when the balls were at the normal PSI.

If Brady struggles, it’ll be because of Seattle’s defense. I don’t need to tell you how good the Seahawks’ stop unit is. The team can apply heavy pressure on the quarterback, stuff the run and defend well against the pass. Brady has his worst games when the opposition can place lots of heat on him with just four defenders. Seattle is more than capable of doing that; just ask Peyton Manning how that felt in last year’s Super Bowl.

The concern for the Seahawks has to be the health of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas. Sherman reportedly has torn ligaments in his elbow, but I don’t think that’ll hinder him from running with his receivers. Speaking of which, the Patriots don’t exactly have the deep threats to take advantage of the two injured defensive backs; what’s Brady going to do, target Brandon LaFell on deep passes with Sherman draped all over him? Brady will instead focus on Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than 54 receiving yards to any tight end since Week 9, though I imagine Gronkowski will change that, despite what Jeremy Lane may think.

Meanwhile, I don’t expect New England to have as much success running the ball as it did in the AFC Championship. Whereas the Colts were 21st against the run in terms of YPC (4.21), the Seahawks are fifth (3.67). Something else to watch for are fumbles by the Patriots. I’m not sure who ran the analysis, but New England has had the fewest fumbles in the NFL by a wide margin, and the assumption is that the deflated balls allowed the players to have better ball security. Why this never worked for Stevan Ridley is beyond me.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Patriots won’t be able to move the chains on the ground very much, the Seahawks should be able to thrive in that regard. The Colts couldn’t get much of a rushing attack going in the AFC Championship, but that’s because they were behind early and were utilizing pedestrian runners. Prior to the Indianapolis victory, the Patriots had surrendered an average of 114.7 rushing yards per contest against their previous three opponents. The Ravens were especially dominant on the ground, compiling 136 rushing yards on just 27 carries.

Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks could easily eclipse that figure by a wide margin. Think about it this way – the running backs the Patriots have had issues against were Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson and Chris Ivory. No offense to Forsett, who had a fine season, but Lynch is far superior to any of those players. It’ll be difficult for the Patriots to bring him down, especially as the game goes on.

That definitely has to be a relief for Russell Wilson, who was responsible for a quartet of interceptions in the NFC Championship. I don’t expect that to happen again. Wilson is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and some of those picks weren’t even his fault. It’ll be difficult for him to connect with his wideouts, given that he’ll be going up against Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and the other New England defensive backs, but Wilson has enjoyed success versus tough defenses before. He was highly efficient at the very least against the Broncos, Cardinals, 49ers and Panthers.

The Patriots don’t particularly play tight ends very well, so Wilson could have success targeting them. I also have to believe that he’ll be able to run around and create. I’ve heard some state that New England has handled rushing quarterbacks well, but Wilson is so much more than that. He’s so great at buying time in the pocket and eventually finding open players; he doesn’t even need to have his big downfield scrambles to be in complete control of the game.

RECAP: I was always going to pick the Seahawks; it was a matter of how many units I’d place on them. Well, after thinking about it and doing extensive research, I’ve decided to make Seattle my Pick of the Month.

I love the Seahawks. Everything says they’re the right side, and I can’t find a single reason to take the Patriots. Here’s why I’m big on Seattle:

1. This reminds me a lot of last year’s Super Bowl. The NFC team was initially favored before the public pounded the AFC squad. The Broncos last year and the Patriots this season were coming off blowout victories, while Seattle barely squeaked by each time. That’s why casual bettors are wagering tons of money on New England.

2. While the squares are on the Patriots, the sharps have been all over the Seahawks. Nearly 75 percent of the action is on New England, yet this spread has remained steady at pick or Pats -1 (-2 on Bovada). I was actually holding out hope that I could get Seattle +3, but the professional bettors are not allowing that to happen.

3. Why are the sharps pounding the Seahawks? One reason is that aforementioned 40-point trend I mentioned earlier. The Patriots are overrated as a consequence. Yes, they just won impressively, but they did so against the Colts, an above-average team. The Seahawks, on the other hand, nearly lost to Green Bay, but the Packers were the third-best team in the NFL. Had Seattle battled Indianapolis and New England taken on Green Bay, the Seahawks would’ve slaughtered the opposition, while the Patriots would’ve barely scraped by – and yet, people don’t realize that.

4. I haven’t even brought up Deflate-Gate yet. I’ve had some people ask me if that’ll help motivate the Patriots, much like Spygate did. I think this is way different because no one has said that New England would’ve lost to Indianapolis if it wasn’t for the deflated balls. On the contrary; I think Deflate-Gate has served as a distraction; the Patriots have spent time answering questions and investigating the matter, all of which may have taken away from their preparation for this game.

5. Another psychological factor that needs to be considered is Circadian rhythms. This game starts at 6:30, so it won’t be prevalent until the second half, but this game being late-ish will help the Seahawks, much like it did the 49ers when they went on a second-half surge against the half-asleep Ravens a couple of years ago.

6. There are a couple of other things to consider: The first is that teams with a better strength of schedule tend to cover in playoff meetings. It’s only 4-6 ATS this year, but it was 7-3 ATS a year ago and 8-2-1 ATS the season before that.

7. The other item has to do with the quarterbacking matchup. I brought this up last year when the Seahawks were also my Pick of the Month – the perceived superior quarterback seldom covers in Super Bowls. Here’s the rundown:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: ??? SU, ??? ATS

The Seahawks are my January/February NFL Pick of the Month. Good luck to those of you betting on them. I’ll have prop bets posted shortly. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time four years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona money line. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There’s nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence (as long as there are no 100-percent USDA Men or kielbasas involved, of course).

Unfortunately, I don’t see any locks like this one. However, I found five props I really like:

1. Will the team that scores first win the game – No +145 (5Dimes.com): In the previous 13 Super Bowls, six teams that scored first ended up losing the game. Scoring first doesn’t mean anything. Because of this, +145 is a pretty decent bargain.

2. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -145 (5Dimes.com): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 11 of the 48 Super Bowls.

3. Will Tom Brady hire a member of Isis to deflate the balls to 10 PSI – Yes -160 (WalterDimes.com): Because the Patriots cheat like no one else.

3. Seattle wins by 1-6 points +335; New England wins by 1-6 points +345 (5Dimes): I like this scheme because there’s a good chance we’ll get one of these two right. Most of the recent Super Bowls have been close, save for last year’s demolition.

4. Will there be a scoreless quarter – No -295 (5Dimes): In the previous 10 Super Bowls, there has only been one scoreless quarter.

5. Will Marshawn Lynch use fewer than 4.5 syllables in his post-game interview – Yes -180 (Waltersupergate): Possibilities include: “Yeah,” “I’m still thankful,” “Beast Mode,” and of course, “Yeah, thankful.”

5. Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -115 (5Dimes): Mr. East, another handicapper, brought this to my attention. In the previous 28 Super Bowls, the second half is 19-8-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits two out of three times at just -115. I know that the Patriots and Seahawks have a habit of shutting down their foes after halftime, but the Super Bowl tends to be a different animal.

I’ll have my annual live Super Bowl blog during the big game. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been asked whether the health of Seattle’s secondary is a concern for me. It’s not. Like everything else with the Super Bowl, it’s being overblown. At least I hope so. At any rate, I still love the Seahawks. The sharps do too. Despite there being close to 70 percent of the money on the Patriots, the spread has moved in Seattle’s favor, with the Seahawks now being favored by one in many books (though Bovada still has New England at -1.5). The squares are on the Patriots, and sometimes the square side is the right side, but everything says that Seattle is the right play.

Who Will Win Super Bowl XLIX? in Walter Football Polls & Contests on LockerDome

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

Deflate-Gate is definitely a distraction. Circadian rhythms will also be tough for the Patriots to overcome.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Tons of public money on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 69% (158,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tom Brady is 174-59 as a starter (132-96 ATS).

Tom Brady is 20-8 in the playoffs (12-16 ATS).

Tom Brady is 11-5 ATS in domes.

Russell Wilson is 10-1 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Super Bowl XLIX Pick: Seahawks 23, Patriots 20
Seahawks +2 (7 Units – January/February NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$770
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 28, Seahawks 24

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will the Team that Scores First Win the Game – No +145 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -145 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

Seattle wins by 1-6 points +335 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; $100

New England wins by 1-6 points +345 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$345

Will There Be a Scoreless Quarter – No -295 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$295

Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)