NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)

NFL Picks (2011): 48-39-5 (-$895)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 17, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Ravens -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Ravens -4.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 99 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started – a number of lost entries because of the Giants (749) and Eagles (150). The lesson as always, don’t pick against a West Coast double-digit underdog traveling to the East Coast to play a 1 p.m. game. Wait, what!?

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I moved the Texans down in my NFL Power Rankings because they just lost Mario Williams. Williams was Houston’s best defensive player and top pass-rusher. Second-round rookie Brooks Reed will take over. Reed has the potential to become a very good player down the road, but he’s a first-year defender learning a new position. Williams will obviously be missed.

Williams’ absence has to be music to Joe Flacco’s ears. The offensive line has been better with Bryant McKinnie on the blind side, but the unit as a whole is still somewhat shaky. It shouldn’t have much of a problem blocking the Texans with Williams sidelined, however.

Flacco won’t be pressured much in the pocket, so he should have a good game. Ray Rice will be even better. Houston has surrendered at least 96 rushing yards to every opponent except for the Colts this year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Not only are the Texans missing their best defensive player; they’re once again without their top offensive talent as well. This didn’t seem to affect Matt Schaub statistically against the Raiders, but as Greg Cox mentioned in the Week 5 recap page, Schaub’s numbers last week were a bit of a farce.

Schaub will have greater issues against the Ravens. The Texan quarterback has had problems in the past against dominant 3-4 defenses, and I’d say the Ravens qualify for that modifier. They’re third against the pass in terms of YPA (6.2). They also have 11 sacks in four games.

It doesn’t get much prettier on the ground. Arian Foster struggled to pick up rushing yards versus the Raiders last week, and that once again figures to be the case against a Baltimore defense that is giving up just 3.1 YPC.

RECAP: This spread may seem pretty large considering that Houston is two weeks removed from beating the Steelers by a touchdown, but I think the Ravens are going to whack the hobbled the Texans.

Baltimore has had a week to prepare for Houston. This is key, as favorites coming off a bye are a sterling 99-53 against the spread since 2002. The reasoning for this is simple; really good teams that have an extra week to focus on their next opponent predictably exceed expectations.

SURVIVOR PICK: Yeah, so, if you’re still alive in survivor, take the Ravens if you don’t have the Packers and Steelers available.

LOCKED IN: I was hoping this spread would drop down to -7. Well, it has. Hop on it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

The public loves the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 68% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 6-3 ATS as underdogs of 6+ since 2008.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Texans 13
Ravens -7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (3-2)
Ravens 29, Texans 14
MISSING

Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2)
Line: Raiders by 6.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Raiders -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Raiders -7.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Raiders.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 5 has been posted – Hank Williams’ replacement has been fired by ESPN. Emmitt to take over.

Also, a friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 10, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Drunkest Woman Ever. 2) Russian Rapist. 3) Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I loved the spirit and energy the Raiders showed last week against the Texans. It was also pretty surprising to see them pull an upset despite not running the ball as well as they usually do.

The Browns won’t provide a great challenge in this department. They’ve surrendered at least 107 rushing yards to every opponent this year, although their YPC is a slightly above-average 3.97. McFadden has run the ball well against stiffer defenses, so he should have a solid outing.

Assuming McFadden runs for at least 100 yards, Jason Campbell won’t have to worry much about Cleveland’s inconsistent pass rush. The team has 11 sacks, but nine have coming against Andy Dalton making his first start, Bruce Gradkowski in relief of Dalton, and Chad Henne behind a craptastic offensive line.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Peyton Hillis is now three weeks removed from his controversial strep throat malady. Now completely healthy, he’ll go up against an Oakland defense that was ranked dead last against the rush prior to last week. The Raiders put together a spirited performance to stop Arian Foster, but it’s doubtful they can muster that same energy again.

Having said that, it’s not like Oakland has to respect the pass. The Browns have no receivers to speak of, so the Raiders are free to put eight men in the box and sell out against the run. Hillis won’t find much running room.

If that’s the case, Colt McCoy will have issues maintaining consistent drives. The Raiders have 14 sacks on the year, including three last week at Houston. The Browns surrendered four sacks the week prior to their bye.

RECAP: I really don’t know what to make of this game. The Giants, back in 2005, rebounded with a victory from their emotional win in the wake of their owner’s passing. But every situation is different.

I think I’m going to take the points. With tons of action on the host, this spread has dropped from -7 to -5.5, so maybe Cleveland is the right side.

PICK CHANGE: I’m going with the Raiders now because it looks like the Browns will be missing shutdown corner Joe Haden and center Alex Mack. On a roster lacking in talent, Haden and Mack are two of Cleveland’s four best players.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The public is all over the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 75% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Raiders are 13-23 ATS in October since 2001.

Raiders are 3-10 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Jason Campbell is 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or more.

Opening Line: Raiders -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Normal.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Raiders 23, Browns 12
Raiders -6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 24, Browns 17

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Line: Patriots by 6. Total: 55.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Patriots -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Patriots -9.5.

Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “ITS THE FINAL SCORE…..DOMINATED OR NOT 1 QUQATER 2 QUARTERS 3 QUATERS OR THE 4TH THEY STILL LOST.IF THE PATS SUCKS THEY STILL WON EVEN IF THEY AREN’T THE DOMINATOR ..THE DOMINATOR LOST…NEW ENGLAND 35 CHARGES 21 NON DOMINATOR DOMINATOR .”

All this talk about Dominators… is this a football forum or an S&M comment board?

2. “congradulations steelers. the only way you can beat us is by making us use the worst qb in the nfl. painter sucks and the ONLY way you can win is with him in your trash ”

The only way the Steelers can win is if Painter is in their trash? Uh, no. Painter clearly goes in recycling.

3. “Collins should be in a retirement home right now, not throwing pickes”

Collins is throwing pickles? Can I eat some before he throws them away?

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: What I wrote about Aaron Rodgers atop the early games page pretty much applies to the Patriots. No defense can stop them; the only way they don’t light up the scoreboard is if they make mistakes. They committed a crucial error at the end of the first half of last week’s game when Aaron Hernandez was responsible for Tom Brady’s first career home red zone interception.

If the Patriots stay flawless, however, there’s no way Dallas’ battered secondary can stop Brady. With Hernandez a week healthier going into this contest, New England’s offense will be even more lethal than it was last week.

Don’t expect the running game to work though; the Cowboys haven’t surrendered more than 64 rushing yards to any opponent this year.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The struggles of New England’s defense have been well publicized. Save for last week’s contest, because in part of Brian Schottenheimer’s idiotic play-calling, the Patriots have allowed at least 344 passing yards in every game this season.

Tony Romo will have Dez Bryant and Miles Austin-Jones fully healthy for this matchup, which obviously poses a huge problem for New England’s beleaguered secondary. The Patriots have just eight sacks on the year, so conventional wisdom says that Romo will have a complete pocket throughout Sunday afternoon. The thing is that Albert Haynesworth, who played sparingly against the Jets, will be a week healthier. Haynesworth was very effective to kick off the season, so maybe he can cause some havoc for Dallas’ questionable offensive line.

Another Cowboy who used the week off to recover from an injury is Felix Jones. He could have a pretty big game against a New England front that made Shonn Greene look like a decent running back last week.

RECAP: I mentioned this trend before: Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 against the spread since 2002. As I explained, large home favorites have had success in this scenario because large home favorites tend to be pretty good teams that are predictably focused with a looming week off.

The Patriots are a damn good team, so I’m expecting a great performance from them. Oh, and Tom Brady is 14-7 against the spread since the beginning of last season. That makes me even more comfortable with this large play.

LOCKED IN & UNIT CHANGE: I seriously doubt this spread is going any lower than -6. I’m making this three units though because the sharps are on the Cowboys.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
No surprise that people are betting on Tom Brady.

Percentage of money on New England: 64% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Hello, Goodbye: Home favorites of 6 or more points a week prior to their bye are 30-9 ATS since 2002 (Bill Belichick 3-1).

Patriots are 26-14 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 126-40 as a starter (98-64 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Normal.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Cowboys 24
Patriots -6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 55.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 20, Cowboys 16

New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Saints -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Saints -6.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I needed to give you a screen shot to show you how weird this is – it’s similar to something I posted two weeks ago:

Who’s Carlino? A member of the Italian mob? And what do you mean, you’re watching him play? Is that a code word for something mob-related? Hold on… no… it can’t be… Is GameCenter a front for the mob? Do entries like “o.o?” and “o;” mean the mob is going to kill someone? I think I’ve said too much already.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If the Buccaneers couldn’t stop Alex Smith, how are they going to contain Drew Brees? It may sound like a simple question, but it must be answered because Tampa doesn’t have the offense to win a shootout.

The answer is that the Bucs can’t stop Brees – not without their top player. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy suffered a high ankle sprain at San Francisco. Without him in the lineup, Tampa Bay will have major issues rushing the passer and stopping the run. Brees has to be loving this matchup on paper.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Buccaneers aren’t built to be involved in shootouts. Josh Freeman is a good quarterback who comes up big in the clutch, but he doesn’t have the talent around him to engineer scoring drives on every possession.

Freeman has seemingly taken a step backward this season. He struggled with his decision-making in the preseason, and that once again festered at San Francisco. Pass protection has also been a problem. Seriously, why is Jeremy Trueblood still starting at right tackle?

The Saints are very good against the pass, so the Buccaneers will need to run the ball, control the clock and keep Brees off the field. They can do that; the Saints actually rank just 28th against the rush, surrendering 5.4 YPC. If they fall behind early, however, they can kiss this strategy – and a divisional victory – goodbye.

RECAP: I’m pretty torn on this game. On one hand, New Orleans is the better team, and Tampa Bay played so poorly last weekend that I want to take the visitor. Road favorites in their third-consecutive away game are a perfect 6-0 against the spread since 2002.

On the other hand, teams that lose the spread by 25-plus points tend to cover the following week, as do underdogs coming off a blowout defeat of more than 28 points.

With a gun to my head, I’m taking the Saints because I really didn’t like the Tampa players’ body language and discipline issues last week. Plus, the Buccaneers aren’t very good at home. Nothing would really surprise me here though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No one wants any part of the Buccaneers after that 48-3 loss.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 84% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Road Team has won the last 4 meetings.

Drew Brees is 26-17 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Saints -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: SUnny, 86 degrees. Light wind.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Buccaneers 20
Saints -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 26, Saints 20

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
Line: Bears by 1. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Bears -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Bears -4.5.

Sunday, Oct. 16, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Some of the plays Jay Cutler made in the Monday night game were amazing. He was constantly under siege, yet he was able to elude defenders in the backfield and fire perfect downfield strikes to his crappy receivers. I definitely gained some respect for him after watching that performance.

I have to wonder though – can he keep this up? At what point is he hit too many times? We might discover that answer Sunday night; Jared Allen and Brian Robison are dynamic pass-rushers on the exterior who have a combined 13 sacks in five games. Kevin Williams, meanwhile, creates havoc on the interior. I just don’t know how the Bears are going to handle all that pressure.

Chicago has been able to run the ball well against the Panthers and Lions the past two weeks. Neither of those teams can stop the run well, ranking 27th and 24th in that department, respectively. The Vikings are seventh (3.5 YPC). Matt Forte won’t be able to bail Cutler out on the ground again, which is yet another reason to hate Chicago’s offense in this matchup.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Of course, you can’t like the Vikings too much either as long as they have Donovan McNabb. McNabb is done and needs to be benched as soon as possible. Minnesota is doing a great job staying competitive in spite of him.

As we all saw Monday night, the Bears have issues at safety. McNabb, however, won’t be able to take advantage of that because he stinks and has no downfield threat. Making matters worse, Julius Peppers figures to abuse inept left tackle Charlie Johnson.

The Vikings will be able to move the ball, however, thanks to Adrian Peterson. The Lions and Panthers, two teams that don’t run the ball particularly well, exploded for 180 and 134 rushing yards, respectively, the past two weeks against Chicago. The Bears have yielded at least 97 rushing yards to every opponent this year, which is why they rank dead last against ground attacks (5.95 YPC).

RECAP: Three reasons why I really like the Vikings:

1. The Bears just suffered a double-digit Monday night loss. Teams tend to struggle at home following a Monday Night Football road defeat of double digits. They are 11-25 against the spread since 2002.

2. I mentioned this trend earlier: Teams playing a divisional road game attempting to avenge a loss of 14-plus points to the same opponent are 72-47 against the spread. Remember how the Bears destroyed the Vikings in that weird Monday night game at the University of Minnesota last December? I think the Vikings want some payback.

3. This spread is so shady. Bears by three? Really? Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting Chicago, yet the juice is moving in Minnesota’s direction.

BEST LINE: You can get this spread for +3 -125 at Bodog or +1 +100 at 5Dimes. Even though three is a key number, I hate to lay -125 juice. I think the Vikings will win this game outright, so I’d rather have +1 without any juice.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Bears look defeated.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Bears favored by only three points? Easy money!

Percentage of money on Chicago: 59% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 14 of the last 16 meetings.

Donovan McNabb is 42-28 ATS on the road since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 26-47 ATS.

Jay Cutler is 11-23 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 23
Vikings +1 +100 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$300
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 39, Vikings 10

Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3)
Line: Jets by 7. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Jets -10.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Jets -10.

Monday, Oct. 17, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New York, home of the Jets! The Jets are playing the stinky Dolphins, who don’t have a win yet. Guys, everything I’m hearing out of everyone’s mouth is “Suck for Luck.” I don’t know what the hell this means. How can you get luck if you suck? Guys, why is everyone becoming just as stupid as Herm Edwards nowadays?

Emmitt: Mike, he do not mean luck the word that mean good wheel o’ fortunes. He mean the Luck that play for the Stanford State College, the Ivy League School.

Reilly: I’m still not following, Emmitt. What does Stanford have to do with luck? I applied to Stanford when I was a senior in high school and got rejected. Where was my luck there, huh Emmitt? Where was my luck there!?

Herm: It’s not luck luck! It’s Andrew! It’s Luck! It’s Andrew Luck! It’s Jim Harbaugh’s quarterback! Harbaugh’s quarterback! Coach Harbaugh! He had a quarterback! A quarterback named Luck! You need to suck to get Luck! Suck for Luck! Luck after suck! Luck suck… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, I was not paying attention to anything you just said there. I hate your guts.

Millen: Here’s what Herm Edwards means by sucking for Luck. You lose one game. And then you lose another, and then another and another. Eventually, you suck. But in the draft this April, there’s going to be a quarterback named Luck. So, you take the two together, and you suck for Luck. But I wouldn’t suck for Luck. There’s a receiver named Alshon Jeffery from South Carolina. Believe me, he is 100-percent USDA Man. I was in South Carolina’s locker room and snapped nude photos of him. And let me tell you what. I wouldn’t just Suck for Jeffery. I’d Jerk Off for Jeffery.

Tollefson: Matt, it’s a good thing you and I have different sex orientations. You can have Alvin Jeffery. I’ll take the South Carolina cheerleaders. I’m going to kidnap at least half a dozen of them, and then I’m going to dress them up in French maid costumes, since it’s close to Halloween, and then they will service me by dusting my shelves.

Emmitt: Mike, I do not have understandment. Why would you dress the cheerleadin’ up in French maid costume when they not even French? Would that not be called South Carolina maid costume?

Tollefson: Emmitt, Emmitt, Emmitt, you have a lot to learn. The first step to forcing women to service you is to dress them up in actual costumes. French maids exist. There’s nothing called a South Carolina maid, but perhaps there should be. Hmm… gentlemen, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go design a South Carolina maid costume.

Millen: Wait for me, Tolly! I want to kidnap Alshon Jeffery while you take those cheerleaders. I’m tired of Jerking Off for Jeffery! I want Alshon in my hotel room now!

Reilly: What a bunch of homos. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mutiny! All of the offensive players hate Brian Schottenheimer because he’s doing stupid things once again. Meanwhile, Mark Sanchez is incredibly inconsistent; Shonn Greene has looked like crap for the most part; and the offensive line has major issues. Otherwise, things are looking great for the Jets.

Sanchez appears to have a nice matchup on paper against a Miami secondary ranked 30th against the pass (8.6 YPA). However, that’s not the case. Stud corner Vontae Davis, who has been out since Week 2 with a hamstring injury, practiced Tuesday. He appears on track to play, and he’ll be a major upgrade over the inept Nolan Carroll.

I like Cameron Wake going up against New York’s pedestrian offensive front. The run defense matchup versus Shonn Greene appears to be a solid one too; the Dolphins are a respectable 16th versus the rush (4.4 YPC).

MIAMI OFFENSE: Of course, the matchup the Dolphins need to worry about is Matt Moore versus Darrelle Revis and Rex Ryan. Moore was decent against the Chargers, but the Jets are a completely different animal.

One piece of good news for the Dolphins – they’ll have right guard Vernon Carey back in the lineup. Carey is not a good pass protector, but he can run block pretty well. The Jets have really struggled against the rush, surrendering a whopping 4.9 YPC since Week 2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis of all running backs just went off against them, for crying out loud.

If the Dolphins can establish the run with Daniel Thomas, Moore will have a much easier time moving the chains. The former Panther proved himself capable in Week 4, so I wouldn’t have any reservations about laying money with him Monday night.

RECAP: Forget reservations. The Dolphins are a five-unit selection for the following reasons:

1. The Jets are coming off an emotional loss at New England. They always give the Patriots everything they’ve got, yet they came up short. I don’t know how they’re going to muster any energy for the winless Dolphins.

We actually had a similar situation last year. The Patriots destroyed the Jets in Week 13. New York hosted Miami the following week and lost straight up as a five-point favorite.

Yes, this Miami team is winless, but this Jets squad is worse than last year’s version. The 2010 Jets could pass protect and stop the run.

2. Speaking of the Dolphins being winless, that brings me to my next point. I mentioned this way back in the Rams-Packers game:

Winless teams (0-4 or worse) are a whopping 22-3 against the spread coming off a bye.

Miami is desperate for a victory. The Jets, meanwhile, will be flat and unfocused.

3. These games are always close. Look at the margin of victory in the past 11 matchups: Dolphins by 4, Jets by 8, Dolphins by 5, Dolphins by 4, Dolphins by 7, Jets by 6, Jets by 27 (1-15 Miami season), Jets by 3, Jets by 3, Jets by 3, Dolphins by 4.

As always, this will be a tight battle that will go down to the very end.

4. Shady spread movement. The line opened Jets -8, but now it’s down to -7 despite tons of action on the host. The sharp money is coming in on Miami.

LOCKED IN: With so much sharp money on Miami, I don’t see this spread going back up. You can get the Dolphins +7 -105 at Bodog.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins are desperate for a win, while the Jets are coming off an emotional loss at New England.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The public loves the Jets. Or they just hate the Dolphins. Probably the latter.

Percentage of money on New York: 81% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Dolphins have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Dolphins are 5-14 ATS after a bye the previous 19 years (Tony Sparano 2-1 ATS).

Tony Sparano is 18-8 ATS on the road.

Opening Line: Jets -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Normal.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 24
Dolphins +7 -105 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$525
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 24, Dolphins 6

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Rams at Packers, Jaguars at Steelers, Eagles at Redskins, 49ers at Lions, Panthers at Falcons, Colts at Bengals, Bills at Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Redskins +140 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: 49ers +180 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +265 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Colts +245 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Dolphins +250 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Teaser: Patriots PK, Ravens -1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Small Parlay: Panthers +4, Giants -3, Ravens -7, Patriots -6, Vikings +3, Dolphins +7 (.5 Units to win 21.5) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)