NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl XLV

THIS SERIES IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY T.G.I FRIDAY’S�, ENCOURAGING YOU TO RUSH IN AND TACKLE THEIR NEW GAME TIME MENU

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2010): 6-7-1 (+$780)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2010): 8-8 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2010): 9-7 (+$1,840)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2010): 9-7 (+$1,045)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2010): 7-8-1 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2010): 9-7 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2010): 10-6 (-$50)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2010): 7-9 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2010): 3-1 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2010): 2-2 (-$600)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2010): 0-2 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2010): 0-1 (-$110)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 6, 12:25 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-6)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line: Packers -1.5.
Sunday, Feb. 6, 6:30 ET at Dallas

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Week 20 Recap: As you can see above, I went 0-2 with my Conference Championship picks. I’d like to thank Jay Cutler, Mike Martz and the Jets’ play-calling for ruining my day. Thanks.

Oh, and by the way, if you take my two highest plays the past two football weekends (Seahawks +10 and Jets +4), I lost 12.1 units by a combined two points. I also took some tough beats with my NBA Picks and College Basketball Picks, but rebounded at the end of the week.

Some e-mailers didn’t care that I lost 12.1 units by those combined two points. Here are some hate mails I received:

From Go Gata (after the Packers-Bears game):

So how many times this year have you sucked the packers off like they were your real life boyfriend, only to to go against them and have them nut in your face! But I am sure you like that. Anyway, you’re an idiot, I’ve been saying it all year, YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU’RE DOING. You go against them when they are the hottest they’ve been ALL YEAR! And ohhhhh never go against the Super 6 blah blah blah, all you do is contradict yourself, its unreal and sad…

Why is this guy talking about boyfriends and football players “nut” in my face? Is there something you want to share with us? It’s the 21st century; it’s OK if you come out of the closet.

From Go Gata (after the Steelers-Jets game):

Looks like you’re right on the money with this one too!!!! Jets Baby! Man you’re just too good at this, you should be helping Vegas out, I’m surprised they haven’t called you for work yet.

And I’m surprised the University of Florida hasn’t built a statue of this guy yet. A Florida student who knows the difference between “your” and “you’re?” It’s a miracle!

From Joseph A:

U.G.L.Y. – You Ain’t Got No Alibi , Your Picks Are Ugly. That’s Right, They’re Ugly.

I Can’t Wait for your Super Bowl Pick, So I can go the way.

My picks prefer the term “aesthetically challenged.” Please don’t hurt their feelings. Thanks.

From Mister East on my forum (posted when the Steelers had a 24-3 lead):

Again

Walt is an automatic fade now:

You guys could of gotten these, but I was driven away, sorry.

MisterEast then posted two winning picks, reinforcing his habit of revealing his selections after kickoff. You can read about his awesome handicapping skills here.

If you’re too lazy to click the link, here were some responses by various members of the forum:

MiamiDolphin4Life: Still here? Posting with the Steelers up 24-3 at halftime? I see ya.

Alex Rodriguez: I’m 8-3 in the playoffs. I am the Queen of the Internet! Walter is worse and he stinks! Everyone must know this posthaste.

TerrapinPrime: Rely on yourself to make picks then you dumbf***.

TBod10: I thought that you said that you bet every game the same and that you only put 1 unit on each game? Never multiple units? So why the 5 unit play? Why the two orders? Colonel?

SmellGood: You post this wall of text at halftime with score 24-3. Stay classy.

Ace High: Mr East blows goats.

VBSiena: No one is paying for your picks.

Hunterm: Bears game to close for a fake pick?

Daniel Brown: Ban this dumba** Walt.

I took Daniel Brown’s advice when Mister East later posted about his bogus NBA Picks record and wrote, “You want winners, then take a peek at what I have to offer, my appraoch, and treatment of clients, you’ll be glad you did.”

I kicked Mister East out of the forum, writing, “Banned for trying to solicit clients for Ponzi scheme.”

Forum member Packman Jon responded: “I thought it because his beating of a dead horse was bordering on necrophilia…”

As I’ve written multiple times, scamdicappers who ask you to pay for their picks usually give out one side to half their clients and the other side to the other half. That way, they can impress half their clientele and draw in repeat business from them. Think about it this way: If their picks were so good, why would they waste their time by harassing people (like the members of this site’s forum) into paying two grand for their selections?

But if Mister East can do it, so can Mister Southwest Central, the gay brother-in-law of Mister Compassion Chuck Norris:

Karate
Karate Picks 2010-2011 Season
Daniel San vs. Johnny Lawrence – Sunday January 23, 2011 6:30 pm
5 units (Normal) ATS: Daniel San +180
Units: 5
Game Type:
Normal Play of the Day Game of the Month Game of the Year Free Play Free Play Count
Pick write up:

Johnny Lawrence has done what most thought impossible. He went on the road and beat that acrobatic Asian kid in the semi-finals. So Johnny Lawrence looks like he should be able to hang with Daniel San, afterall he beat him up before the tournament. Not so fast. The acrobatic Asian Kid had no defense, and guy before had no defense. There is also a big difference in this Daniel San kid this time around and that is Mister Miyagi didn’t teach Daniel San the first time. Mister Miyagi is similar to the trainer that Rocky Balboa had a few years back. Mister Miyagi’s students are undefeated, and Daniel San has won the matches he participated in vs pedestrian karate fighters. (with Mister Miyagi as his trainer). Johnny Lawrence’s numbers this year vs top 10 karate fighters show a 50% kick hit rate, and just 6 punches per attempt. The Daniel San Crane defense will not allow Johnny Lawrence to sweep the leg. Then there is the fact that this is a All-Valley Karate Tournament Championship. How many times has a bad guy like Johnny Lawrence won the trophy? It has happened, but very seldom. I like Daniel San in this one.

Perhaps Mister East should follow Mister Southwest Central’s example and begin giving out karate picks to his cheated clients.

SPAM E-MAILS: My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment.

I have two for you this week, and we may as well begin with this one, since I replied as Mister Southwest Central:

If you wanted proof that Mister Southwest Central is heterosexually challenged, this is it. Just don’t doubt his awesome handicapping skillz.

Here’s one more. As you can see, the subject was “Watermelon,” which drew my attention because I was in the mood for watermelon NOM NOM NOM NOM.

Poor Carl Winslow. Mister Compassion Chuck Norris’ army of wolves is falling apart.

By the way, after sending that last e-mail, I received a message back from that address:

WTF? LOL. Well apparently we have been both been had… because I haven’t used this e-mail account in two months… if you want to you can mention me Walt… tis vikingfan173

I find this whole thing very ironic. These a**hole spammers are smart enough to steal the password from a person’s e-mail address, but are idiots because they think there are people who are stupid enough to click their links. Well, you have to give them credit for trying at least.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK: I have lots of videos and pictures for you this week, though I’m sure you’ve seen some of them already (thanks to Facebook friends and e-mailers Dylan D., Kevin K., Alex V. Anthony M. and Cody B. for these):

First, is the famous Booger-Gate Video.

Mark Brunell should be honored. In the Mexican culture, picking your nose and placing your booger on a person’s chest is a sign of admiration and respect.

Second, Ben Roethlisberger gets a taste of his own medicine from Rashard Mendenhall.

Don’t worry, Steeler fans. There’s no way Mendenhall’s convicted for this. Big Ben was clearly asking for it.

Moving on, it appears as though the Jets have settled on a religion:

Jew York Jets

Sanchez and Braylon Edwards, two very religious Jews, must be pleased.

Next, here’s why the Packers beat the Bears:

Greg Jennings scores on a broken leg.

How can anyone defend Glass Jay Cutler after seeing this?

And finally, if you’ve missed Joe Theismann’s great analysis on Thursday Night Football, here’s what he thinks about Danny Woodhead and the Patriots offense.

Danny Woodc*** – 100-percent USDA Man.

GAMECENTER QUOTES: It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

This is the final NFL pick I’m making until August, so I thought it would be nice to go back to Taton, whom I introduced back in Week 14. Taton posted stuff like “Manning always got pick in the last minutes that is sux!!!!” and “Colts offense and defense not good too many pass drop could catch!!!!” Here are some more of his posts:

1. “Packer sux got sack to much!!!”

Hear that, Clay Matthews? You better not sack Ben Roethlisberger too much.

2. “if PIT win is a miracle”

And if Taton ever puts together a grammatically correct sentence, it’ll be an even greater miracle.

3. “steers wont win SB mark my word”

Taton is right. The Steers will never win the Super Bowl. You can mark my word too.

4. “look like the bird run into the steel!!!!”

Is this some sort of metaphor, or is Steel really the No. 1 cause of death among birds?

REMINDERS: Here are some reminders:

1. If you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are FOUR entries remaining out of 1,972.

2. You can also create your own 2011 NFL Mock Draft on DraftDebacled.com, and if the write-ups are sound enough (and grammatically and factually correct), your mock could be featured in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft Database. Our 2011 NFL Draft Contest will be available soon.

3. Jerks of the Week for Jan. 31, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Jerks at the Mall. 2) State of the Union Address. 3) My Night in the Dark.

TV BOOTH: Throughout the season, I’ve been posting mock TV broadcasts of Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen, and Kevin Reilly, Emmitt, Herm Edwards and Bob Griese. It’s the playoffs, so why not combine these two teams to make one ultra, mega TV broadcast of epic fail?

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Dallas, home of the evil Cowboys. Guys, I’m upset that my Eagles aren’t playing in the Super Bowl, but seeing the Cowboys not playing in this game almost makes up for it. Ha! Screw you, Jerry Jones, you spawn of Satan!

Emmitt: Now Kasey, I have knowned Jerry J… uhh… Gordon for a long time and he not just a nice ownership. He is a very nice ownership. He care about his players and other things.

Reilly: What!? How dare you, Emmitt? I thought we were best friends. How dare you defend the spawn of Satan?

Joe Theismann: I know Matt Millen likes Jerry Jones. Jerry had a pile of hamburgers saved especially for Matt. Jerry was just scared that Matty would eat his office supplies again, so give Jerry credit for buying all of those hamburgers from T.G.I. Friday’s.

Matt Millen: Did someone say office supplies? I just ate 50 hamburgers from T.G.I. Friday’s, and while that was delicious, I wouldn’t mind scarfing down some envelopes, a couple of pairs of scissors and a bottle of glue. And here’s what I mean by scarfing down. I’m not talking about the scarf you wear around your neck when it’s cold. I mean when you have a tasty hamburger, shrimp or stapler in your hand. And when you have it in your hand, you move it toward your mouth, which you open up at the right time. You don’t want to do it too early because a fly can fly in, and you don’t want to do it too late because then you’ll have mustard on your face. But when you open your mouth at the right time, you put the food or office item into your mouth and squeeze it down your throat as quickly as possible. That’s what I mean by scarfing down.

Reilly: Jesus Christ, are you done already? I thought I was going to die of old age by the time you finished explaining that.

Herm: Don’t bring Jesus into this? No Jesus! No Jesus allowed! No Jesus in this booth! No Jesus here! No Jesus there! No Jesus anywhere! No Jesus bear! No Jesus hair! No Jesus health care!

Reilly: I’m surrounded by idiots! Guys, let me know what you think of Jay Cutler. Is he a big wuss like Herm, or was he right for sitting out? I can’t decide.

Emmitt: I do not know what have occurred with Jake Cutler’s knee at the time of the game, but like I said to my son Emmitt Smith Jr. the Fourth, it would take a broken leg, broken head or broken soul to removed me from the game. But now I heard that Jake Cutler suffer a torn MCL, which stand for medium collateral leg, and now I would like to change my opinion to uhh… I don’t know what.

Bob Griese: Jay Cutler will be a great quarterback for the Denver Broncos!

Bob Papa: That’s exactly what I was going to say.

Millen: Guys, I don’t know why you hate Jay Cutler. Here’s the thing about Jay Cutler. I once saw Jay Cutler showering naked one time. And I went up to Jay and asked him, “Jay how is it that you are more than 100-percent USDA Man? I know lots of guys who are 100-percent USDA Man, but I’m looking below your waist, and I see about 300-percent USDA Man.” Jay didn’t answer me, but I could see it in his eyes. He wanted me to ride him hard all night long in the hotel room while we both ate pepperoni pizza.

Theismann: Don’t forget to put Tabasco sauce on your pizza, Matt.

Millen: Duh. What do you think I am, Joe, an idiot?

Reilly: Yes, you are an idiot! That’s what I’ve been saying all along! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: If you haven’t heard, Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey is out. That should be a big deal, especially with B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins on the other side of the line of scrimmage, but Pittsburgh has somehow managed to keep winning despite all of the injuries to its offensive linemen.

The reason, of course, is Ben Roethlisberger. Hardly anyone talks about Big Ben being one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL because he doesn’t put up pretty stats, but his ability to shed sacks and find his receivers downfield despite all of the pressure in his face is remarkable. He also makes all the clutch throws, as Baltimore and New York found out recently.

Pittsburgh ran the ball really well against the Jets, but doing so will be difficult with Pouncey missing. The Packers have surrendered only 166 yards on 46 carries in the playoffs (3.6 YPC), so Mendenhall won’t be as effective this Sunday.

Roethlisberger will have to convert all of the third downs, but that’s not really a problem for him. He’s the master of moving the chains in third-and-long. Just ask the Ravens and Jets.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was on fire in the Atlanta game and the first drive of the NFC Championship, but cooled off a bit in the second half at Chicago.

Were Rodgers’ late struggles a result of poor weather conditions or the Bears’ defense? I’d say both. With all of the speed the Packers have on both sides of the ball, they’re basically a dome team. However, I’d say that the Steelers might be JUST a bit better than the Falcons defensively.

Pittsburgh will place tons of pressure on Rodgers. However, like Roethlisberger, Rodgers thrives at eluding pass-rushers, escaping the pocket and picking up big chunks of yardage.

One advantage Rodgers won’t have this time is the threat of a rushing attack. The emerging James Starks ran well at Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago, but the Steelers have the top run defense in the NFL. They haven’t allowed more than 89 yards on the ground to any team since Week 10.

SITUATIONAL ANGLES: Now that we’ve looked at the matchups, here are some other factors you have to consider:

1. The Field. Edge: None. I discussed the Packers being better in a dome. You can say the same thing about the Steelers. Can you imagine Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders on that fast turf? And what about the Pittsburgh pass-rushers? Neither team has a field advantage in this Super Bowl.

2. The Vegas. Edge: None. People are pretty torn on this game. As of this writing, there is 54-percent action on the Packers, which is not significant at all.

3. The Experience. Edge: Steelers. I’ll explain in the next two angle write-ups:

4. The Distractions. Edge: Steelers. Look, do I think the Aaron Rodgers-Nick Barnett feud should be a big deal? No, I don’t. But it certainly can’t help the Packers. While the more experienced Steelers are practicing and thinking about Green Bay, the Packers are stuck answering questions about Photogate.

This is not a pre-Super Bowl arrest or Tijuana trip, but it still might affect the game just a bit.

5. The Motivation. Edge: Steelers. This Steelers team has won two Super Bowls, yet they’re three-point underdogs to the six-seed Packers. Does anyone else find this odd? Pittsburgh really has to feel disrespected, and the veterans must have a major chip on their shoulder.

6. The Trends. Edge: Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is 9-3 against the spread in the playoffs. But Aaron Rodgers is 3-1, so there’s no edge. However, Big Ben is a Super Six quarterback (Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Rivers, Brees) and betting on them as underdogs has been really lucrative over the years (92-44 against the spread since 2003).

Roethlisberger specifically is 14-7 against the spread as an underdog throughout his career.

7. The Spread History. Edge: Steelers. I feel as though going with the points is a safe bet because since Tampa Bay’s debaclation over Oakland (Jon Gruden was familiar with the Raiders – don’t forget that) most of the Super Bowls have been close:

Saints 31, Colts 17 (Peyton Manning pick-six opened this game up)
Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Giants 17, Patriots 14
Colts 29, Bears 17 (pick-six at the end made this margin 12)
Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 (would have been close if it weren’t for the crooked officials)
Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (and some McNabb puke on the side)
Patriots 32, Panthers 29

The Steelers haven’t lost by more than 10 points all year if you exclude the New England game. The Packers, meanwhile, have never trailed by more than seven points this season. Pittsburgh beat Green Bay, 37-36 in their 2009 meeting.

By all indications, this is going to be a close battle that will probably be decided by one score. That makes taking the underdog a more lucrative choice.

8. The Coaching. Edge: Steelers. Mike Tomlin has a Super Bowl ring. I trust him. Mike McCarthy is a hell of a play-caller, but he tends to have clock-management issues at times and tends to let teams hang around. You can’t let Roethlisberger hang around.

9. The Talent. Edge: Packers. So far, I’ve argued nothing but the Steelers +3. However, this is the toughest Super Bowl I’ve ever handicapped because while the angles favor Pittsburgh, the Packers are healthier and consequently slightly more talented overall.

RECAP: I’ve made big plays in the previous three Super Bowls on the Giants, Cardinals and Saints. However, I’m really torn this time. As I said, this matchup is really difficult to handicap because either of these teams can win. It’ll likely come down to the very end, so I’m going to take the underdog.

If you like the Steelers, they’re currently available at +3 -120 on sportsbook.com and bodog.com as if this writing. I would wait though to see if that -120 turns into -115 or -110 by the end of the week. However, if you like the Packers, pounce on -2.5 as quickly as you can.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time two years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers money line at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona money line. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There’s nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence (as long as there are no 100-percent USDA Men involved, of course).

Unfortunately, I don’t see any locks like this one. However, I found 12 props I really like:

1. Will the Team that Scores First Win the Game – No +155 (5Dimes.com): Let’s begin by mentioning some of the props that were discussed on Bill Simmons’ podcast. I forget who brought it up – it was either Chad Millman or Cousin Sal – but in the previous nine Super Bowls, six teams that scored first ended up losing the game. So getting this prop at +155 is definitely a good bargain.

2. Will There Be a Scoreless Quarter – No -250 (Bodog.com): I know Millman discussed this stat – in the previous six Super Bowls, there has only been one scoreless quarter. Again, this is a great value bet.

3. Hines Ward Receptions – Under 3.5 -125 (Bodog): I liked this one before I heard it on the BS Report. Here are Ward’s reception totals against top competition this year: 2 (Jets), 3 (Ravens), 2 (Jets), 1 (Ravens), 0 (Patriots), 3 (Saints), 2 (Ravens).

4. Heath Miller Receiving Yards – Over 39.5 -110 (5Dimes): Here’s another Steelers prop mentioned on the BS Report. The Packers have a great defense, but they’ve been susceptible to tight ends this year.

5. Combined Total Points – 71-75 Points +10000; 76-80 Points +15000 (Sportsbook.com): Cousin Sal introduced these two props, and Bill Simmons brought up a great point to support them. If they play this game 100 times, the odds that these teams will score between 71 and 80 points is much greater than 100:1. Thus, this is a solid value bet. You probably won’t win betting on these items, but it’s worth it to put just a little bit down on each because there’s a chance you’ll strike gold.

6. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -175 (Bodog): Millman mentioned this one last year; this has happened in only 10 of the 44 Super Bowls.

7. Green Bay Players with a Rush Attempt – Over 3.5 -265 (5Dimes): This will be the last prop I reference from the BS Report, so you can be assured that I did some research myself. Millman said a lot of sharps were playing this over. And it makes sense – with James Starks, Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn and Aaron Rodgers bound to run the ball, this is almost a lock to hit. And even if either Jackson or Kuhn doesn’t get a carry, there might be some sort of end-around.

8. Team to have the most penalty yards in the game – Green Bay Packers +130 (Bodog): Conventional wisdom says the Steelers will win this prop because the NFL likes to make an example out of James Harrison. However, the Steelers are always suspected of paying off the refs. Think back to their previous two Super Bowl victories. How many shady calls went against the other teams? My dad refuses to bet on the Steelers because the Rooney family made its fortune long ago via sportsbooking back when it was legal. Thus, he’s convinced that the refs always make sure to call everything so the Rooneys can win even more money.

9. Pittsburgh wins by 1-6 points +400; Green Bay wins by 1-6 points +335 (5Dimes): This is similar to Cousin Sal’s scheme, but there’s a good chance you’ll get one of these two right. I anticipate a very close game, and as mentioned above, most of the recent Super Bowls have been close.

10. Joe Buck’s Decibel Level on the Most Exciting Play of the Game – Under 0.000001 (Bodog): Just kidding. I made this one up.

10. Will Mason Crosby Miss a Field Goal – Yes +325 (Bodog): I couldn’t believe the odds on this. I checked, and there has to be one attempt for this to count, so if Crosby is 0-for-0, there’s no action. I like this prop because Crosby is just 3-of-5 in the playoffs in the past two years. There will be extra pressure in this game because it’s the Super Bowl.

11. Green Bay Total Rushing Yards – Over 78.5 -115 (Sportsbook): The Packers rushing for 78.5 yards may seem like too much, but not when you factor in Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is bound to run for at least 20 yards, meaning Green Bay’s backs will need 58.5 yards at the very most. The combination of Starks, Jackson and Kuhn has cleared that total in all three playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl.

12. Pittsburgh Third-Down Conversions – Over 5.5 +115 (5Dimes): The Steelers recorded 13 third-down conversions in their two playoff victories. And as I wrote earlier, “[Roethlisberger is] the master of moving the chains in third-and-long.” That’s one of the reasons I’m picking Pittsburgh to cover the spread.

I’ll have final thoughts on the Super Bowl over the weekend. I’ll also be updating my 2011 NFL Mock Draft on Thursday and my 2012 NFL Mock Draft on Friday or Saturday. You can check for any updates by following me on Twitter (@walterfootball).

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: If you like the Steelers, you can get them at +3 -110 at Sportsbook.com. That might be the best line you see for Pittsburgh all week.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

Are the two-time champion Steelers really underdogs? And why are the Packers bickering about a team photo?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 50% (405,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger is 14-7 ATS as an underdog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs (6-2 as a favorite).

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Super Bowl XLV NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Packers 23
Steelers +3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; +$100
Packers 31, Steelers 25

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will the Team that Scores First Win the Game – No +155 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Will There Be a Scoreless Quarter – No -250 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Hines Ward Receptions – Under 3.5 -125 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$125

Heath Miller Receiving Yards – Over 39.5 -110 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Combined Total Points – 71-75 Points +10000 (0.1 Units) — Incorrect; -$10

Combined Total Points – 76-80 Points +15000 (0.1 Units) — Incorrect; -$10

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -175 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Green Bay Players with a Rush Attempt – Over 3.5 -265 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$265

Team to have the most penalty yards in the game – Green Bay Packers +130 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$130

Pittsburgh wins by 1-6 points +400 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Green Bay wins by 1-6 points +335 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$165

Will Mason Crosby Miss a Field Goal – Yes +325 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Green Bay Total Rushing Yards – Over 78.5 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115

Pittsburgh Third-Down Conversions – Over 5.5 +115 (2 Units) — Correct; +$230

NFL Picks - Dec. 3

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 3

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 30

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,527-3,244-204, 52.1% (+$20,150)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,131-1,017-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-503-25 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 2,955-2,929-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-5	Bears: 5-6	Bucs: 7-5	49ers: 8-4
Eagles: 7-5	Lions: 9-3	Falcons: 7-5	Cardinals: 9-3
Giants: 4-7	Packers: 8-3	Panthers: 5-7	Rams: 7-5
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-6	Saints: 6-6	Seahawks: 7-4

Bills: 5-7	Bengals: 3-9	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-7	Browns: 5-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 7-4
Jets: 7-5	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-6
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-6	Titans: 7-4	Raiders: 6-6

Divisional: 25-30 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 36-28 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 24-33 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-55 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 13-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 16-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)