NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2009

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2009): 0-0 ($0)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. X, X:XX p.m. ET.



Detroit Lions (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)
Line: Bills by 3.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

The Bills look like they suck this preseason, but the truth is that this is an annual occurrence under Dick Jauron, who doesn’t take exhibition games seriously. Jim Schwartz is 2-1 this preseason.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Dick Jauron is 13-22 in preseason games.
  • Dick Jauron is 2-6 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 13, Bills 10
    Lions +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200





    Washington Redskins (1-2) at Jack Del Rio (0-3)
    Line: Jaguars by 5.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Jack Del Rio normally likes winning in the preseason, but he’s been beaten once by bad weather (in Miami) and twice against teams coming from behind. I can’t see Del Rio finishing 0-4.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Jim Zorn is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Jim Zorn is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jack Del Rio is 17-10 in preseason games.
  • Jack Del Rio is 5-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jaguars 24, Redskins 6
    Jaguars -5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400





    Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
    Line: Bears by 3.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Eric Mangina is 3-0 in the final week of the preseason and 6-1 in the final two weeks of the exhibition. He still has a quarterback controversy on his hands, so he may have more motivation to win this game than Lovie Smith does.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Eric Mangini is 10-5 in preseason games.
  • Eric Mangini is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Lovie Smith is 14-11 in preseason games.
  • Lovie Smith is 2-3 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Browns 19, Bears 13
    Browns +3 (1 Unit) — Push; $0




    Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    With all of these new coaches, it’s fun to see which ones value winning in the preseason. Tony Sparano clearly does, as he’s 6-1 in these exhibition contests.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Tony Sparano is 6-1 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 1-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean Payton is 9-7 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Dolphins 17, Saints 13
    Dolphins +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200




    Green Bay Packers (3-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-2)
    Line: Titans by 3.5.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Jeff Fisher loves to win his final preseason game. Mike McCarthy apparently does not.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike McCarthy is 7-8 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-3 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 28-23 in preseason games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 8-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Packers 3
    Titans -3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300







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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-2
    Bears: 3-1
    Bucs: 3-1
    49ers: 3-1
    Eagles: 3-1
    Lions: 4-0
    Falcons: 1-3
    Cardinals: 3-1
    Giants: 0-3
    Packers: 3-1
    Panthers: 2-2
    Rams: 2-2
    Redskins: 1-3
    Vikings: 3-1
    Saints: 1-3
    Seahawks: 1-2
    Bills: 1-3
    Bengals: 1-3
    Colts: 2-2
    Broncos: 3-1
    Dolphins: 1-3
    Browns: 1-3
    Jaguars: 0-4
    Chargers: 1-2
    Jets: 3-1
    Ravens: 3-1
    Texans: 2-2
    Chiefs: 2-1
    Patriots: 2-1
    Steelers: 2-2
    Titans: 1-3
    Raiders: 3-1
    Divisional: 2-9 (2011-23: 608-561)
    2x Game Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 401-387)
    2x Motivation Edge: 11-3 (2011-23: 510-441)
    2x Spread Edge: 7-8 (2011-23: 239-211)
    2x Vegas Edge: 15-12 (2011-23: 448-446)
    2x Trend Edge: 5-2 (2011-23: 321-293)
    Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-23: 207-185)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-23: 33-37)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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