NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2009

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2009): 0-0 ($0)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. X, X:XX p.m. ET.



Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Line: Titans by 3.

Sunday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

Note that there aren’t any big advantages here; both Dick Jauron and Jeff Fisher are above average when it comes to Week 1 preseason. However, I feel as though the Bills have more to prove with a victory than the Titans do. Everyone knows Tennessee’s good, but Jauron will be fired if Buffalo doesn’t do well this year. I know this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but it might mean something to Jauron right now.

At any rate, this is just a small play to kick things off; I’m not in love with Bills +3, but it seems like the right side.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Dick Jauron is 12-20 in preseason games (4-4 last 2 years).
  • Dick Jauron is 5-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 27-21 in preseason games (6-2 last 2 years).
  • Jeff Fisher is 7-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Titans 13
    Bills +3 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
    Titans 21, Bills 18




    Washington Redskins (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    It’s tough to guess what’s going to happen here because both of these coaches are just entering their second year. John Harbaugh won his first preseason game last season, but went 0-3 after that. The Ravens also don’t have much to prove, so I’m guessing Jim Zorn would like a victory more here, especially after losing to Baltimore in the regular season in 2008.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Jim Zorn is 3-2 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 1-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Ravens 20
    Redskins +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
    Ravens 23, Redskins 0




    Chicago Bears (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)
    Line: Bills by 3.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    Though the Bills somehow pulled out a miracle cover, they were completely embarrassed against the Titans on Sunday. I have to believe Dick Jauron will be determined to win this game before the media starts spiraling things out of control.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Lovie Smith is 11-10 in preseason games.
  • Lovie Smith is 3-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Dick Jauron is 12-10 in preseason games.
  • Dick Jauron is 5-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Bears 10
    Bills -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
    Bills 27, Bears 20



    Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
    Line: Packers by 3.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    Eric Mangini has a new team, but he always shown that he was concerned with winning preseason games when he was with the Jets. Mike McCarthy, meanwhile, has never taken these exhibition contests too seriously. It helps that Cleveland has three semi-talented quarterbacks on its roster.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Eric Mangini is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • Eric Mangini is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 4-8 in preseason games.
  • Mike Mcarthy is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Packers 17
    Browns +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
    Packers 17, Browns 0



    Carolina Panthers (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
    Line: Giants by 3.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    Both John Fox and Tom Coughlin have excellent preseason records, but Fox has always been the master of winning the first exhibition game. Plus, I love the fact that Carolina has extra motivation after losing to the Giants late in the season last year.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • John Fox is 18-10 in preseason games.
  • John Fox is 6-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tom Coughlin is 11-9 in preseason games.
  • Tom Coughlin is 2-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Giants 20
    Panthers +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
    Giants 24, Panthers 17






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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
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    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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