NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2023

2023 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

2022 NFL Picks: 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: Bears by 4.

Saturday, Aug. 12, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I don’t like much this week. There are so many new coaches, and some of the old ones we used to count on for wins/losses are no longer around. In fact, I’m only making three picks this week instead of the usual four. I’m starting off with the Bears, however. Chicago has some excellent preseason quarterbacks like Phillip Walker and Nathan Peterman, while coach Matt Eberflus is 3-0 thus far. It’s a small sample size, so this won’t be a large bet.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Mike Vrabel is 6-8 in preseason games.
  • Mike Vrabel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Matt Eberflus is 3-0 in preseason games.
  • Matt Eberflus is 1-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Titans 17
    Bears -4 -102 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$100



    Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 6.

    Saturday, Aug. 12, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    We’ve had so much success betting John Harbaugh in the preseason over the years. We’ve also won by fading Nick Sirianni. It sucks that we have to pay a premium with the Ravens, so this won’t be a high-unit wager.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Nick Sirianni is 1-4 in preseason games.
  • Nick Sirianni is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 43-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 14-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Eagles 17
    Ravens -6 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$215



    San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0)
    Line: 49ers by 4.

    Sunday, Aug. 13, 4:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I’m not crazy about this pick, but the 49ers have the much deeper quarterback depth, including Trey Lance, who might be showcased for a trade. Something else to consider is that Kyle Shanahan is 4-1 in preseason Week 1 games.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 10-8 in preseason games.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 4-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Josh McDaniels is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Josh McDaniels is 2-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Raiders 16
    49ers -4 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110






    NFL Picks - Oct. 30


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 3-3
    Bears: 3-4
    Bucs: 5-3
    49ers: 6-2
    Eagles: 3-4
    Lions: 6-1
    Falcons: 3-5
    Cardinals: 6-2
    Giants: 2-5
    Packers: 4-3
    Panthers: 4-4
    Rams: 3-4
    Redskins: 2-5
    Vikings: 3-4
    Saints: 4-4
    Seahawks: 5-2
    Bills: 3-5
    Bengals: 2-6
    Colts: 5-3
    Broncos: 6-2
    Dolphins: 3-4
    Browns: 2-6
    Jaguars: 2-5
    Chargers: 3-3
    Jets: 4-4
    Ravens: 4-3
    Texans: 3-5
    Chiefs: 2-4
    Patriots: 5-2
    Steelers: 2-6
    Titans: 4-3
    Raiders: 4-4
    Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)
    2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)
    2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)
    2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
    2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)
    2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)
    Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)
    Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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