NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2021

NFL Picks (Preseason 2021): 5-3 (-$120)

2021 NFL Picks: 5-3 (-$120)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)
Line: Jets by 4.

Friday, Aug. 27, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

We don’t have data on lots of coaches because there was no preseason last year. However, Robert Saleh is one of those high-energy coaches who may want to win in the preseason. Meanwhile, Nick Sirianni doesn’t appear to care about the preseason at all. Saleh’s quarterbacks are much better than Sirianni’s anyhow.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Nick Sirianni is 0-2 in preseason games.
  • Nick Sirianni is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Robert Saleh is 2-0 in preseason games.
  • Robert Saleh is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Eagles 10
    Jets -4 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$110



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)
    Line: Panthers by 4.

    Friday, Aug. 27, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    How is Mike Tomlin an underdog in this game? He’s 12-3 in his previous 15 preseason games. Matt Rhule, conversely, is 0-2 in the preseason.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 34-23 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Matt Rhule is 0-2 in preseason games.
  • Matt Rhule is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Panthers 20
    Steelers +4 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$220



    Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
    Line: Ravens by 4.

    Saturday, Aug. 28, 6:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    John Harbaugh will lose a preseason game at some point, but he’s won his previous 19 exhibition contests. I’m not going to avoid that even though this feels like a trap.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 39-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 9-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 21-17 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 4-5 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Redskins 13
    Ravens -4 -108 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$100



    Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (1-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Saturday, Aug. 28, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Sean Payton, who has a quarterback battle on his hands, takes Week 3 preseason games seriously; he’s 11-3 in them. Kliff Kingsbury, meanwhile, is 2-4 in exhibition contests and doesn’t possess capable backup quarterbacks.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 2-4 in preseason games.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 0-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean Payton is 29-31 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 11-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Cardinals 17
    Saints -3 -113 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — No action




    NFL Picks - Oct. 10


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    NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 8


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-3
    Bears: 3-2
    Bucs: 3-2
    49ers: 4-1
    Eagles: 3-1
    Lions: 4-0
    Falcons: 1-4
    Cardinals: 4-1
    Giants: 1-3
    Packers: 3-2
    Panthers: 2-3
    Rams: 2-3
    Redskins: 1-4
    Vikings: 3-2
    Saints: 1-4
    Seahawks: 2-2
    Bills: 1-4
    Bengals: 1-4
    Colts: 3-2
    Broncos: 3-2
    Dolphins: 2-3
    Browns: 1-4
    Jaguars: 1-4
    Chargers: 1-2
    Jets: 3-2
    Ravens: 3-2
    Texans: 2-3
    Chiefs: 2-2
    Patriots: 3-1
    Steelers: 2-3
    Titans: 1-3
    Raiders: 3-2
    Divisional: 5-12 (2011-23: 608-561)
    2x Game Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 401-387)
    2x Motivation Edge: 13-6 (2011-23: 510-441)
    2x Spread Edge: 8-11 (2011-23: 239-211)
    2x Vegas Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 448-446)
    2x Trend Edge: 6-3 (2011-23: 321-293)
    Double Edge: 5-7 (2011-23: 207-185)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-23: 33-37)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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