NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)

NFL Picks (2018): 59-49-6 (+$365)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 21, 10:45 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Oct 21, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees had a big night the last time we saw him, as he passed Peyton Manning and Brett Favre to be the NFL’s all-time leading passer. Brees was excellent in that game, and it certainly helped that his teammates were playing with a high level of energy. The mistakes the Redskins made on third downs didn’t hurt either. Washington made three blunders on third downs to keep early drives going, and that allowed the Saints to build a huge lead.

I don’t think the Ravens will make similar errors. They have a great defense and will be playing at home. The unit is coming off an 11-sack outing versus the Titans, and while it’s unreasonable to expect such a figure again, the defensive front should be able to harass Brees a bit. The Saints’ interior offensive line isn’t great, particularly at guard, so those are two matchups the Ravens could exploit. Brees hates interior pressure more than anything, and he also doesn’t play as well outdoors. I got yelled at the last time I wrote something like this, but it’s true. Throughout his career, he’s completed 69.5 percent of his passes in a dome and 64.7 percent of his throws outdoors. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 282:111 in domes compared to 200:107 outdoors. His YPA in domes is 8.05 compared to 7.13 outdoors. And his quarterback rating is 103.6 in domes and 90.8 outdoors.

I don’t have Brees’ stats against top-five NFL defenses in outdoor games, but I imagine those numbers are even worse. Of course, Brees has some dynamic threats at his disposal, but I believe the Ravens can neutralize those for the most part. The one exception might be Alvin Kamara. The Ravens have tremendous linebackers who can slow him down, but Kamara is so great that he’ll still make some plays. Conversely, Baltimore’s excellent run defense will clamp down on Mark Ingram, while the Ravens’ excellent cornerbacks will be able to erase Michael Thomas for the most part.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’ve been high on the Ravens ever since it was revealed that Joe Flacco put way more effort into his game this offseason. Clearly upset that his team spent a first-round pick on Lamar Jackson, Flacco developed a new passion for football, and it has paid off. Flacco has posted his best stats thus far since 2014, and I don’t imagine them declining in this contest.

Flacco’s improved supporting cast has helped a ton. Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead have given him some actual threats, which he hadn’t possessed in recent seasons. Marshon Lattimore, assuming he passes concussion protocol, should be able to lock down Crabtree, but the rest of the Saints’ secondary isn’t very good, so Brown and Snead could have big games.

The Saints will at least be able to stop the run, so that’s something. Alex Collins hasn’t been all that great this year anyway. That said, Buck Allen could have some nice opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield, given New Orleans’ middling linebacking corps.

RECAP: If you couldn’t tell, I love the Ravens in this game. They may not have the explosive offense that the Saints possess, but their defense is much better than New Orleans’. Plus, they have the advantage of playing outdoors. If you still disagree with me that Brees isn’t as good outside of a dome after I posted all of those numbers, I don’t know what else I can say.

One important thing to note is that the Saints have to battle the Vikings in a revenge playoff battle next week. New Orleans has had two weeks to read its press clippings about how great it was Monday night, and how they were able to be a part of Brees’ record-setting game. I don’t think they’ll have as much energy as the Ravens will possess for this battle, as Baltimore will be trying hard to prove that it belongs in the Super Bowl discussion. There will be believers if they beat New Orleans.

With the Saints being a big-time public dog, I’ll be on the Ravens to win and cover this game. I’ll be wagering four units on Baltimore.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money on the Ravens, but the books seem reluctant to move this to -3, at least for the moment. I’m wondering if locking in Baltimore would be a good move right now. I thought about it, and the Pinnacle juice has dropped from -2.5 -118 to -2.5 -109 on Thursday afternoon, so I hope other books bring this down to -2.5 -110 as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s supposed to be windy in the early going, though the wind is expected to die down by the evening. I mean, who knows really, but any wind would definitely benefit the Ravens because they don’t rely on the pass as much as New Orleans does. I love the Ravens, and so do the sharps. I’m hoping to get good juice at -2.5 (-115 or better.)

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still holding out hope for a great number. The best I can find is -2.5 -120 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS/UNIT CHANGE: I’m glad to see my patience paying off. The Ravens are -2.5 -110 at 5Dimes. I love Baltimore and I’m actually going to increase this to five units because of this great number. The sharps are on the Ravens.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Ravens will be a higher-energy team; the Saints have had two weeks to hear about how great they are, and they have to take on Minnesota next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
The Saints are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 60% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 52-32 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 46-30 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Sean Payton is 7-4 ATS off a bye.

Ravens are 28-19 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 52 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Saints 20
Ravens -2.5 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$550
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 24, Ravens 23

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2)
Line: Cowboys by 1.5. Total: 41.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -6.
Sunday, Oct 21, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Why the Cowboys Didn’t Sign Jeremy Maclin

Ryan Fitzpatrick: The Greatest Backup QB of All Time

2019 NFL Draft Defensive Line Preview

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Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Robbertjandrost Mock Draft

AJScout Mock Draft

KKunert327 Mock Draft

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. The Vikings then knocked out a bunch of people, and we’re down to just 34 souls remaining..

We also have our Wekly Fantasy Football Contest. You can enter for free and win cash prizes!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys just scored 40 points on the elite Jacksonville defense, so their offense must be back to 2016 form! That’s what the national media is making of that result anyhow, but it couldn’t be further from the truth. As I wrote in the Jaguars-Texans capsule, Jacksonville showed a severe lack of effort in that game. The team moved sluggishly and made several mistakes. Given how lethargic the Jaguars were, every other team in the NFL would’ve blown them out in that circumstance, assuming the opposition played with the same intensity and passion Dallas possessed.

Another reason for the Cowboys’ explosion was Cole Beasley taking advantage of horrible slot corner play. The Jaguars have missed D.J. Hayden the past two games, and Beasley exploited that matchup. The Redskins have a quality slot corner in Fabian Moreau, who should be able to limit Beasley. Meanwhile, Washington’s defensive line, which is pretty stellar, will win in the trenches. Aside from Zack Martin, the Cowboys block poorly in the interior, and the “Bama Boys” will take advantage of this liability. Ryan Kerrigan, meanwhile, will feast on overmatched right tackle La’el Collins.

With the Redskins winning in the trenches, Ezekiel Elliott won’t have much running room. Dak Prescott will be forced to make more plays, and while he’ll surely scramble for first downs, he won’t have as much success aerially, given the advantages the Redskins have downfield.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins need some reinforcements back from injury. They entered last week down Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson, who happen to be two of Alex Smith’s top three weapons. Washington got lucky with some turnovers from D.J. Moore, so at least one of Crowder or Thompson will be needed for the Redskins to win this game. Washington historically has been far worse without Thompson, but it sounds like he may play. Crowder’s outlook is sketchier, as he’s not expected to practice early in the week.

Of course, the biggest injury question on this side of the ball is to Sean Lee. While rookie Leighton Vander Esch has been great, the Cowboys missed Lee in the Detroit and Houston games. They surrendered an average of 422 net yards in those contests, compared to just 281 yards per game in the first three weeks of the season when Lee was on the field. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, as Lee is the mastermind of the defense, and there tend to be more breakdowns when he’s not available. The Cowboys also happen to be worse against tight ends without Lee, and Jordan Reed is the first dynamic threat at the position Dallas will be facing at the position all year since Week 2.

The strength of the Cowboys’ defense is their defensive front, which put plenty of heat on Blake Bortles. They were able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s third-string left tackle, but they won’t have such a big edge in this contest, as the Redskins have a strong offensive line. Trent Williams and Morgan Moses should be able to keep Dallas’ dynamic edge rushers out of the backfield on most occasions.

RECAP: These teams are just half a game apart in the standings, but the Redskins are a far better team. Dallas and Washington have a similar receiving corps and front seven, but the Redskins are much better on the offensive line and in the secondary. I also trust Alex Smith a lot more, as Prescott has struggled for most of this season. Also, the Redskins are far better coached. Jason Garrett is one of the worst coaches in the NFL, as he’s right down there with Bill O’Brien and Vance Joseph. Garrett’s teams often have trouble maintaining success, which would explain why they’ve performed poorly after their initial two victories this season.

Despite the Redskins being the superior squad, they’re not even favored by a field goal. That’s absurd, and it’s because the public and media have a warped perception of how good the Cowboys are. They’re way too impressed with what Dallas did versus Jacksonville, while failing to take into account the zero-percent effort the Jaguars displayed in that game.

It’s still early, so I expect that the Cowboys will eventually be a public dog. This makes the Redskins even more appealing. We’re already getting tremendous line value with Washington, so that’s just the cherry on top.

The only question I have with this game is the injury report. I’d like one of Thompson or Crowder to play, and I want Lee to sit out again. If both of these things happen, I’ll have a five-unit wager on the Redskins. I’ll keep this at three units for now, but I’ll definitely have updates later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another instance where the sharp money is on the short home favorite. This line has moved to -2, and I believe it’ll continue to drift upward closer to -3. I don’t know if it’ll hit -3, but I could see it being -2.5 -115 at some point. I may lock this in on Friday once I see the final injury report. I want Sean Lee to be out before I bet Washington heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet this game. Sean Lee will play, while the Redskins will be without their top two receivers and also possibly Chris Thompson. The sharps apparently aren’t fans of the injury report either for Washington, as they’ve been betting Dallas. The Cowboys are now favored.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’s kind of crazy that the Redskins are now a public dog. With all the injuries the Redskins have, I actually want to change my pick to the Cowboys, but I think it’s too late in the week to do that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps keep pounding the Cowboys, and I’m changing my pick. I like Dallas. Chris Thompson being out is the final nail in the coffin for the Redskins. Washington has way too many injuries.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Cowboys have been flat following their previous two losses, and the Redskins figure to have more energy in this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
The Cowboys are now a public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 61% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Underdog has covered 13 of the previous 19 meetings.

The underdog is 78-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Redskins -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 52 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Redskins 16
Cowboys -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 20, Cowboys 17

Los Angeles Rams (6-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
Line: Rams by 8.5. Total: 52.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -10.5.
Sunday, Oct 21, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Rams.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 6, a third murder victim is found at Gillette Stadium, and the press is irate at something else. Meanwhile, the Patriots don’t lose for the first time all year!

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about a serial-killer bird and Twin Peaks, the restaurant!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: C.J. Beathard is the greatest quarterback of all time. He was unstoppable at Lambeau, and his offense produced 10 yards per play in the opening half. I mean, sure, Beathard couldn’t move the ball on Arizona’s middling defense the week before, but whatever.

Sarcasm aside, I’d say Beathard’s performance Monday night was more on Green Bay’s defense being atrocious than Beathard being great. Beathard wasn’t the dumpster fire that was promised to us, but he played very poorly the week before, tossing nothing but checkdowns. I refuse to believe what we saw Monday night, and I expect Beathard to struggle again. Hurting Beathard’s chances is the offensive line, which isn’t very good in the interior. The Rams, as you may know, have some ridiculously talented players in the inside of their defensive front.

The 49ers have two edges on this side of the ball. Marquise Goodwin, now healthy, could be problematic for a secondary that has banged-up cornerbacks. Meanwhile, the Rams’ linebacking corps isn’t very good, so Matt Breida should be a nice threat out of the backfield. Still, those players are dependent on Beathard getting them the ball, and the Rams’ front may rattle him enough that he won’t be able to do so.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Beathard could be forced into some turnovers trying to keep up with the Rams’ offense. Los Angeles figures to score plenty of points against a San Francisco secondary that stinks outside of Richard Sherman. Despite Sherman’s presence, all of the Packer receivers thrived Monday night, so Jared Goff will have success throwing to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Cooper Kupp is a question mark, but Goff has plenty of other dynamic weapons at his disposal.

This, of course, includes Todd Gurley. The 49ers have a strong run defense, thanks to DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas, but they struggle to defend pass-catching running backs. The Packers didn’t really have the tools to beat them in that regard, but the Rams do with Gurley. It’ll be shocking if he doesn’t have a big receiving day.

The 49ers were able to generate lots of pressure on the Packers, but they won’t have as much success doing so versus the Rams. Los Angeles’ offensive line is excellent. A couple of players were banged up at Denver, as Andrew Whitworth and Rodger Saffold missed some snaps, but they’re both expected to suit up in this contest.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Rams -12.5. Because of what happened Monday night, in a game many are theorizing was fixed – including my dad, who was irate about it – this spread has fallen to -10. Furthermore, the public is pounding San Francisco!

This is unreal. The Rams are a billion times better than the 49ers, and Beathard will revert to the inept checkdown machine we saw against Arizona. This should be an easy blowout, and I’m going to make a big play on the Rams with this depressed point spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think the sportsbooks are so shocked the public isn’t betting the 49ers that they moved this line down to -9.5. It’ll be interesting to see if this hits -9 at some point.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: There’s suddenly slight action on the Rams, prompting the books to bump this up to -10 in most places. Oddly, though, 5Dimes has -8.5 -110 available, which I’ll lock in.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The -8.5 -110 I bet on 5Dimes is gone, but 5Dimes still has -9 -110, which I think is worth locking in as well if you like the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, the sharps are all over the 49ers. Richard Sherman is out, yet they don’t care. This line is available at -8 -109 at Pinnacle for those of you outside the U.S.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 65% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 18 of the last 25 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

Opening Line: Rams -10.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Rams 34, 49ers 17
Rams -8.5 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$400
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 39, 49ers 10

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 57.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Oct 21, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

This is a follow up to what Ross wrote to me a week beforehand:

All I can say is bravo to this Lex fellow for making Ross’ life a living hell.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs shouldn’t have much trouble scoring in this game, as they haven’t had issues putting points on the board at all this year, save for moments against the Broncos and Patriots. Both were road games in very difficult environments. That won’t be the case here, as Patrick Mahomes will be throwing in front of his own rabid fans.

Of all the Chiefs’ play-makers, I expect Travis Kelce to have the best game. The Steelers attacked the Bengals last week with Vance McDonald and the other tight ends, and Cincinnati had no answer for them. The reason for this was that a Pittsburgh fullback took out linebacker Nick Vigil on a nasty cut block in the opening quarter, and Vigil sprained his MCL. Vigil is certainly not a big name to most people, but he had been Cincinnati’s best coverage linebacker this year. Without him – he’ll be out a month – the Bengals are going to have problems covering in space, and Mahomes will certainly take advantage of that.

The Bengals may have some luck putting pressure on Mahomes with Geno Atkins, as the Chiefs could be missing their starting center, but I imagine that Mahomes will find a way to hit big plays more often than not.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of big plays, the last time the Bengals had plenty of those was the opening half in Atlanta. Andy Dalton torched the Falcons relentlessly to begin the game. The Bengals didn’t punt until the third quarter, and they had just three third downs. That’s how efficient they were offensively. However, things changed in the third quarter when Tyler Eifert suffered a gruesome injury. Cincinnati’s five drives from that point forward concluded with a punt, punt, turnover, field goal and touchdown at the end.

The Bengals haven’t been the same without Eifert, and also Giovani Bernard. There’s a chance Bernard could return for this game, but if he doesn’t, Cincinnati won’t be able to attack the middle of the field. The Bengals couldn’t do this versus the Steelers, and that hurt their chances of winning that game. Like Pittsburgh, Kansas City can’t defend the middle of the field, but I’m not sure the Bengals have the tools to exploit this liability.

Of course, the Chiefs also struggle to cover the outside because of poor cornerback play. A.J. Green had a difficult matchup against Joe Haden last week, but things will be much easier for him Sunday night. Tyler Boyd also figures to have a big game out of the slot. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon should be able to pick up where Sony Michel left off when he dashed for 100-plus yards Sunday night.

RECAP: The Bengals started the season 3-1 following their win at Atlanta. However, they struggled to finish that game prior to the final drive and then nearly lost to the Dolphins. They were then defeated at home by a middling Pittsbugh squad. Cincinnati is not the same team without Eifert and now Vigil, and I believe that will be apparent Sunday night.

The Chiefs haven’t lost against the spread yet this year, depending on what number you had in the Denver game, and I expect that to continue to be the case following Sunday night. We’re not getting a good spread for the publicly backed Chiefs, and I fear a back-door cover, so this will be a non-wager. However, Kansas City should be able to beat the weakened Bengals by a touchdown or more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Dalton appeared on the injury with a back issue of some sort. He’s practicing fully, but after what happened to Ryan Tannehill, I don’t think we should take things like this lightly. I’m going to closely monitor Dalton’s condition, especially on Friday, and hope I can unearth something like I did with Tannehill (although that didn’t lead to any profits.)

SATURDAY NOTES: I couldn’t find anything on Andy Dalton, but just be careful if you’re wagering on the Bengals. Then again, the Chiefs won’t have Justin Houston, so the back door could be wide open.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I doubt I’ll be betting this game, barring any late injury news or crazy line changes. I think this spread is exactly correct.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m on tilt right now following Justin Tucker’s missed extra point to send the Saints-Ravens game to overtime, so I couldn’t imagine betting this game. I’d lean toward the Chiefs, especially with -5.5 being available at 5Dimes. However, Kansas City’s defense is so bad that a back-door cover is a very real possibility. If you like Cincinnati, Bovada has +7 -120 available. It’s worth paying 20 cents on the dollar to go up from +6 to +7.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

The public believes this is easy money.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 71% (58,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bengals are 42-24 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Bengals are 8-14 ATS after playing the Steelers.

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.

Opening Total: 58.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 52 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Bengals 27
Chiefs -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 57 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 45, Bengals 10

New York Giants (1-5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 52.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -4.5.
Monday, Oct 22, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Atlanta, where the Atlanta Braves take on the stupid New York VaGiants. Guys, as a fan of my own Philadelphia Eagles, and a former player of the team, I never thought I’d agree with someone on the stupid VaGiants. Guys, that changed when I heard David Beckham’s interview on ESPN. David Beckham might be an idiot with blond hair, but he talked crap on Eli Manning and the rest of the VaGiants, so I think he might be some super double secret agent who wants to help my Philadelphia Eagles! Yes, he’s a secret agent!

Emmitt: Agent, I do not like what you’re talking. You say double secret, which mean three time the usual amount of secret which too many secret in my books. Even one secret too many. Because sometime you tell a secret and it hurt people feeling and sometime you have a secret and the governor try kill you!

Reilly: Emmitt, I’ve noticed that you’ve been calling me by the last word of my opening sentence each week. Do you think you could call me by my real name, Kevin, or perhaps what I should be known as, Eagles’ No. 1 fan? Anyway, we’re getting a call. Caller, you’re on the air for the Steelers-VaGiants telecast.

Caller: Hello, this is Odell Beckham Jr. I want to tell you guys the truth about my team. The truth is that Eli sucks, the coaching staff sucks, the colors of our jerseys suck, and the kicking nets around the city suck! Everything sucks!

Tollefson: Odell, thanks for calling in. I see you dyed your hair a fancy blond color. Would you say this has worked? Do you think I’d have more success drugging and kidnapping women to be my slaves if I dyed my hair blond like yours?

Reilly: Tolly, Odell doesn’t care about women! He’s a secret double agent trying to help my, or should I say, our Philadelphia Eagles! Isn’t that right, Odell?

Beckham: What? I’m just trying to help my own team. Why would I help the Eagles? I want the Giants to improve, and I want better kicking nets to go out on dates with!

Reilly: Sure, you don’t want to help the Eagles. Wink, wink! Good job distracting people about the kicking nets.

Wolfley: KEVIN, KICKING NETS ARE NO LAUGHING MATTER. ESPECIALLY KICKING NETS WITH LIPS AND EYEBROWS. KICKING NETS WITH ONLY JUST LIPS OR JUST EYEBROWS ARE NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT, BUT KICKING NETS WITH LIPS AND EYEBROWS ARE VERY DANGEROUS, AS THEY ARE AIMING TO MURDER ALL THE FIRE HYDRANTS ON THE PLANET.

Herm: Fellas, I was going to shout incoherently as usual, but that made absolutely no sense, and so I can’t follow it up. Can’t… follow… uhh… umm…

Fouts: Herm, I think I know what Wolfley is talking about. When I was growing up and in grammar school, there were eight kicking nets in my class. Seven of these kicking nets either had eyebrows or lips; not both. Seven, by the way, is six more than one, five more than two, three more than four, and minus-4 more than 11. Now, seven of eight had one, while the one of eight had both. This one turned out to be a serial killer. He killed 12 people, which is 11 more than one, 10 more than two, nine more than three, and minus-11 more than 22!

Beckham: Dan, do you have the phone numbers of these seven kicking nets? Or at least their names? I’d love to stalk them on Facebook and maybe download their photos. Isn’t that right, Jay? Weren’t you dating a kicking net at one point?

Cutler: I dunno, maybe, I haven’t been paying attention to the women and kicking nets I’ve been dating. I think I got married recently, but I’m not sure if my wife is a woman or a kicking net.

Reilly: New daddy, how can you say that! You getting married to mother was the best day of my life because I got a new daddy!

Cutler: What was your name again, kid? BRB, gonna go smoke a cigarette.

Reilly: WAHHHHH NEW DADDY DOESN’T LOVE ME, WAHHHHHH!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, don’t cry, Kevin, but if you cry, Kevin, here’s a shoulder to cry on, Kevin. Kevin, I’ll always be here for you, Kevin. Let’s see how many macaroni and cheeses I have in my pocket, Kevin, to help you, Kevin. Kevin, here’s some regular mac and cheese for you, Kevin. Kevin, how about bacon mac and cheese, Kevin? Kevin, let’s look here and see that I have Baja mac and cheese, Kevin. Oh look, Kevin, I have buffalo chicken mac and cheese in my other pocket, Kevin. You’ll never guess what I have in my last pocket, Kevin. Why do I have so many pockets, Kevin? I don’t know, Kevin, but looks like I have pepperoni pizza mac and cheese for you, Kevin.

Reilly: Thanks, Charles. That makes me feel better. We’ll be back after this…

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, keep eating my macaroni and cheese, Kevin, and keep trusting me, Kevin, for my revenge will be complete by the Super Bowl, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning should be benched. The Giants have a rookie quarterback on their roster named Kyle Lauletta, and it’s worth finding out what he has to offer. New York, if given the chance, will almost certainly be drafting Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert this upcoming April – as seen in my 2019 NFL Mock Draft – so it would be irresponsible to head into the offseason without knowing more about Lauletta.

With that in mind, I think Manning will have his best game of the season. It has nothing to do with his talents, but more with the fact that the Falcons are absolutely atrocious on this side of the ball. Aside from covering the No. 1 receiver with Desmond Trufant, they don’t do anything well. Their other cornerbacks are pedestrian; their pass rush is lacking; they can’t defend the middle of the field; and they can’t stop the run. Peyton Barber had a great game against them, for crying out loud.

If the Falcons couldn’t stop Barber, how are they going to deal with Saquon Barkley? And if they couldn’t handle O.J. Howard, how will they stop Evan Engram? And if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were able to get some good chunks against them, what are Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard going to do? Pass protection would be an issue, of course, but as mentioned, the Falcons can’t generate pressure on the quarterback.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have been explosive on this side of the ball at home all year. However, that may not be the case in this game. Atlanta was dynamic offensively in the opening half last week, but slowed down following intermission because of injuries to Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu. It remains to be seen if they’ll be able to play Monday night. If one of them is available at 100-percent capacity, the Falcons should be fine. Conversely, if both are out, Atlanta’s scoring unit could sputter.

Also, it’s worth noting that the Giants are the toughest defense the Falcons will face in quite a while. New York got Olivier Vernon back last week, and he should be in better shape after extended practice time. Vernon should be able to put some heat on Matt Ryan, who could be in trouble if all he has is Julio Jones at his disposal, given that the Giants have Janoris Jenkins to cover him. Jenkins hasn’t been great this year, but he’s won some matchups, including one against Michael Thomas.

It’s a shame for the Falcons that Devonta Freeman won’t be available to exploit New York’s poor linebackers. Austin Hooper should be able to do so, but the Falcons’ healthy running backs aren’t dynamic receiving threats. The Giants stuff the run well anyway.

One final thing to note: Atlanta’s stellar kicker, Matt Bryant, will miss this game. Bryant is automatic, and it’s unlikely that his replacement will be as precise. A missed field goal could decide who covers the spread; it sure did last week at the very end when Bryant drilled a 57-yarder with a minute remaining for the agonizing front-door field goal.

RECAP: Four of the Giants’ six games this year have been close. Manning has a good track record of staying within large point spreads, thanks in part to his penchant for getting back-door covers. The back door will certainly be open against the Falcons’ miserable defense, but the Giants may not even need it. They should be able to score early and often, while Atlanta’s offense may not be as good if two of their top three receivers are out or injured.

The Giants definitely seem like the right side, and it’s great that we’re getting outstanding line value. The advance spread on this game was Atlanta -3.5, but because of the Giants’ blowout loss to the Eagles, the line has bolted to -6. I liked the Eagles in that contest, as short weeks benefit the superior team, but the Giants, with extra time to prepare, will perform much better in this contest. I’m willing to bet three units that they will.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are pounding the Giants, and the +6s are long gone. They’re almost certainly not coming back. In fact, I think this line will be +3.5 by kickoff. I may lock this in on Friday once the injury reports are released.

SATURDAY NOTES: Calvin Ridley and Grady Jarrett are both off the injury report, which is obviously good for the Falcons. Still, despite this, the sharps are pounding the Giants. New York has lost its appeal at +4, but I still like the visitor here for two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Man, all of the +4s are gone as well. The sharps are pounding the Giants into oblivion. I’ll wait for a +4 -110, as there’s no point in betting the Giants now at +3.5.

PICK LOCKED IN: I wrote Sunday morning that I was going to wait for a +4 -110 to lock this in. Well, Bovada currently has +4 -105 listed, so I’ll place two units on the Giants with that number.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I locked in +4 -105, which I’m happy with. However, I’d be happier with the +4.5 -110 available at BetUS. The sharps pounded the Giants earleir in the week, but they stopped betting on them at +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Giants all week, but there was some very late sharp money coming in on Atlanta in the past 15 minutes. The line has gone up to +4.5 in some books, and BetUS even has +4.5 -105 available. I still like the Giants for a couple of units, but it’s disappointing that all of the Falcons’ questionable players will be on the field.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

No surprise as to where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt Ryan is 19-8 ATS in night games.

Falcons are 6-23 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 29 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Falcons 30, Giants 27
Giants +4 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$200
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 23, Giants 20

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Denver at Arizona, Tennessee at LA Chargers, New England at Chicago, Buffalo at Indianapolis, Detroit at Miami, Minnesota at NY Jets, Carolina at Philadelphia, Cleveland at Tampa Bay, Houston at Jacksonville

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

No teaser yet, but I may have one Sunday morning. I like the Redskins at +8, but can’t find anyone to pair them with at the moment.

NFL Picks - Nov. 22

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)