NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LI

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2016): 7-8-1 (-$440) full review
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2016): 8-8 (+$55) full review
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2016): 4-12 (-$2,205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2016): 8-7-1 (+$415) full review
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2016): 2-2 (+$445) full review
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2016): 3-1 (+$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2016): 0-2 (-$750)

NFL Picks (2016): 147-127-10 (+$955)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 4, 8:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

New England Patriots (16-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-5)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 59.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3.
Sunday, Feb. 5, 6:30 ET
At Houston
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

WEEK 20 RECAP: I got a ton of hate for my Week 20 disaster, in which I went 0-2. I don’t regret either pick, though. You’re going to win more often than not taking great quarterbacks at +6 lines. The Packers could’ve been competitive, but made too many sloppy mistakes – the lost fumble at the 5-yard line was a real killer – and then sustained numerous injuries. The Steelers, meanwhile, lost Le’Veon Bell in the first quarter. If you were to tell me that the Steelers wouldn’t have Bell for three-plus quarters, I would’ve wagered on the Patriots in a heart beat.

I wouldn’t call these bad beats. More like unfortunate circumstances of variance. I think the Packers cover +6 against the Falcons in most permutations. Patriots-Steelers is more dicey, but that wager was considerably smaller, and probably should’ve been only one unit at the most.

I’ll have my Super Bowl LI pick on Tuesday the 31st. Check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates. The Patriots are currently -3 across the board, but they are just -101 at Pinnacle, while the Falcons are +3 +105 at Bovada. The sharp books are welcoming bets on New England, but that could change.

CRAZY STAT: I wanted to share this with you. I found it absolutely mind-boggling. So, I’ve mentioned before that this is a fluky year for favorites covering. Laying points is more often a losing proposition than not – as you’ll see in the graphic – but that hasn’t been the case this year. In fact, we’ve NEVER seen anything like it; at least not since 1989.

Check out this table. It measures how well favorites of -6 or more have performed since 1989, which is as far back as the records go:

Of the past 28 years, favorites of six-plus have had losing spread records 19 times (49.1% overall). That’s an expected ratio, as large underdogs are normally good bets because the books tend to inflate favorites to cater to the public. Since 1989, there’s never been a year in which favorites of six-plus have done better than 54.7 percent, and that was back in 1991.

Well, not until this season. The final tally of favorites of -6 or more in 2016 is 51 wins, 28 losses, for an unbelievable 64.6 percent – nearly 10 percent higher than it’s ever been!

I don’t know what to make of this. I’m assuming it’s just variance, and the sportsbooks better hope so because they lost a record amount of money on NFL wagers this year. And that’s not even taking into account all of the overs and teasers that hit throughout the playoffs.

I guess 2016 will forever be known as the Year of the Square. The Joes had to have a great season, I suppose, and I think it’s extremely likely that this was a fluke. We’ll almost certainly see this revert back to the mean in 2017. We better hope so, anyway, because if this continues, many sportsbooks will have to go out of business.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail to get to after the Week 20 debacle.

Here’s the infamous Ross Avila, a 17-year-old Foot Locker employee who claims he bets thousands of dollars on every game. He claims to win $10,000 or more per wager, so why does he work at Foot Locker again? If someone made that kind of money on football bets – and one has to wonder how a 17-year-old places big bets like that in the first place – you’d think they’d spend their time developing handicapping models rather than selling shoes like Al Bundy.

Ross went against my Packers-Falcons pick, a selection I said I don’t regret because we got a great number.

Ross’ Steelers pick lost, yet he had the audacity to talk trash…

I can’t imagine anyone cleaning toilets for Google claims to have an internship with them, but sometimes you have to talk yourself up to boost your self-confidence!

Ross returned a couple of days later when I posted the spread and Vegas betting action…

I’m beginning to think that Ross failed at his finance classes. If he went 1-9, making a fictional 10K on his top pick, and losing a fictional 5K each on his nine fictional losses, that’s not a good fictional financial outcome! I’m guessing the finance classes that Foot Locker paid for turned out to be pretty crappy.

Ross Avila had one other post that I can’t find, unfortunately. I think he deleted it. He posted a ticket in which he won a lot of money, but I questioned how a 17-year-old could place a bet like that, and he admitted that it was fake, citing that it was the “first right call I had all week.” Well, it was the only call I tried to make because there weren’t any NFL games to handicap, so I’ll take going 1-for-1. Thanks, Ross!

Here are some hate posts from the comment board:

So, some anonymous dude comes on and says he predicted the Super Bowl correctly back in August. Ooohhkayy then. Hey, everyone, I predicted the last 51 Super Bowls correctly, and not only that, I got every single stock movement correct as well. Believe me!

Oh, and yeah, trash; not garbage. Get your facts straight, pal.

Here are two more:

Thank you for your best wishes, BCE. What does BCE stand for anyway? Broken Caps Error? Why does this guy always type in caps?

As for the guy impersonating me, don’t underestimate my incompetence. I could easily humiliate myself at McDonald’s!

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Emmitt on the Brink Season 9 is complete! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already. Season 9 dealt with the election, as well as the League of Failed General Managers, led by Matt Millen and Hillary Clinton.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Tales from the Hot Tub.

This week on FOX, we’re going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Houston, where tonight, the New England Patriots take on the Atlanta Braves! Guys, we have a special guest here tonight, as we are privileged to interview the 46th President of the United States, Donald Trump! This is typically done by people like Bill O’Reilly, but the FOX execs thought it would be a good idea for us to conduct the interviews this year. Mr. Trump, thanks for hanging out with me this afternoon!

Trump: Thank you, it’s a pleasure to be here. Yuge game, can’t wait. Yuge.

Reilly: President Trump, you’ve made the headlines by saying you’re going to build a wall in Mexico. What I want to know is why you won’t build a wall in Philadelphia. Carson Wentz got sacked a lot last year, so what if Lane Johnson gets suspended again and my Philadelphia Eagles can’t block for my new hero, Carson? I am wearing Carson Wentz underwear right now, so I am very concerned for his well being!

Trump: We’re going to build a wall in Philadelphia, and we’re going to have Mexico pay for it. We’ll build that wall in Philadelphia to keep the immigrants from reaching the backfield if that’s what it takes.

Emmitt: Mr. Trunk, it is a very honorably to meet yourselves. Mr. Trunk, I have a question about the immigration politics. The people at the airport are real angry about something. Maybe you change their flight number or flight alphabet. What are you going to do about these?

Herm: HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FLIGHT NUMBER! GOT NOTHING TO DO WITH THE FLIGHT NUMBER! DOESN’T HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE FLIGHT NUMBER! FLIGHT NUMBER IRRELEVANT! FLIGHT NUMBER INCONSEQUENTIAL! NOT THE WRONG NUMBER! DIDN’T DIAL THE WRONG NUMBER! DIDN’T DIAL INCORRECTLY! IF YOU’D LIKE TO MAKE A CALL, PLEASE HANG UP AND TRY AGAIN! HAVE TO TRY AGAIN! HAVE TO TRY ONCE MORE! NEED TO TRY AGAIN! NEED TO TRY ONCE MORE! NEED TO TRY! TRY WHAT!? HERM FORGOT WHAT HE WANTS TO TRY! HERM HAS TO TRY… TRY SOMETHING! HERM CAN’T REMEMBER WHAT TO TRY! HERM… uhh…

Reilly: President Trump, please ignore this idiot. OK, next question. You’ve deported lots of terrorists already. What can you do to deport Ezekiel Elliott, Dirk Prescott and Dez Brian? Because I want my Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East next year!

Trump: There are Cowboys who are criminals, rapists and murderers. If we find them to be guilty of such crimes, we will kick them out of the country.

Reilly: You just said that all Cowboys are rapists, and I agree! I’ll begin planning fake crimes for them after this game!

Tollefson: Lord Trump, I’d like to know if I can hang out with you tonight. I normally do well as far as kidnapping and enslaving women is concerned, but I can’t even imagine how many women I’ll kidnap and force to clean naked for me if I even spend just a few hours with you. I have to imagine that you have thousands, if not tens of thousands of women cooking and cleaning naked for you, sir!

Trump: This is fake news. What is it with these questions? Does no one want to ask me anything about my policies?

Fouts: And here’s what he means by fake news. Fake news is a series of words that are antonyms, which mean the opposite of something. The opposite of fake is real, which means that the real thing is actually real, while the fake thing is actually not real, unless you’re wearing virtual reality goggles, and in which case, you can say the fake thing is real because it seems real in your brain, and the real thing is still real, which means everything is real and not fake, unless you are talking about fake things that seem real. The opposite of news is a fairy tale, which is a tale about faeries like Matthew Millen.

Wolfley: I ONCE DIDN’T HAVE A FAIRY. THEN, ONE DAY I GOT A FAIRY AND I WAS ALLOWED TO LEAVE MY FOREST VILLAGE AND GO TO THE BIG CASTLE TO SAVE THE PRINCESS BUT I HAD TO CLIMB INSIDE A GIANT TREE FIRST.

Trump: OK, I’ve had enough of you idiots. I’m leaving.

Millen: Wait, just one second, my fellow 100-percent USDA Man. I’ve been investigating how this recording device Charles Davis has been using was inserted into my backside for two weeks now, and I’ve come up with nothing. As a 100-percent USDA Man yourself, do you have any idea how this could have come about?

Trump: There is but one answer to this: Crooked Hillary!

Hillary Clinton: Aha! Got you! I’ve been hiding in this closet ever since I’ve lost the election, and I’ve fooled all of you! Teeheeheehee!

Tollefson: Would someone shut this ugly hag up? Only beautiful women are allowed to speak, and only if they’re asking where the kitchen utensils are.

Hillary Clinton: All of you have been wondering where I’ve been since the election. Well, I’ve been here the entire time, and now I’m going to reveal my grand master plan!

Fouts: And here’s what she means by grand master plan-

Hillary Clinton: Silence, fool! I had my COB insert the recording into Mr. Millen’s anus, which was part of the grand master plan.

Millen: A COB!?!??! No…

Reilly: What’s a COB?

Hillary Clinton: Chief Officer of Backsides. Here he is, Mr. Ross Avila.

Ross Avila: FALCONS GONNA SMASH YO. YOUR ALL GONNA LOSE YOU’RE BETS.

Hillary Clinton: Silence, little Ross. No one cares about football bets made for fun. Everyone, meet Ross, the stealthy man who inserted the recording to Mr. Millen’s anus. He pretended to be a 100-percent USDA Man and hid a recording into one of the kielbasas he stuffed into Mr. Millen’s buttocks. I found Mr. Avila at the Google janitorial meeting, and I knew instantly that he would be proficient at being my new Chief Officer of Backsides. I’ve never seen anyone mop up urine off the floor with such haste as Mr. Avila!

Reilly: Lady, you’re really boring. What does this have to do with anything?

Hillary Clinton: Because, I have Mr. Charles Davis right here, and I’m holding him hostage!

Charles Davis: Uhh… Hello, Kevin… I heard some discussion about walls, Kevin… Let’s talk about some famous walls, Kevin… Let’s start with the Great Wall of China, Kevin… What about the Berlin Wall, Kevin…? Let’s chat about Wall Street, Kevin… How about the Wall of Omens, Kevin… No, Kevin… Pepperoni pizza is not a wall, Kevin… Give you 716,000 guesses, Kevin… uhh… Kevin…

Hillary Clinton: As you can see here, Mr. Davis is running out of energy because he hasn’t been able to talk about irrelevant topics. Soon, all of the life will be drained out of his body. I will return Mr. Davis to you unless Donald Trump concedes his presidency, and names me the President of the United States, a title that is rightfully mine!

Tollefson: No! You will never take Lord Trump’s presidency! Ahhhh!!!

*** Don Tollefson whips out a laser gun and fires it at Hillary Clinton, who explodes into little pieces. ***

Trump: That explosion was yuge. Yuge.

Tollefson: No worries, Lord Trump. I always keep an Ugly Woman Gun handy at all times so I can destroy ugly women who talk too much.

Trump: Thank you, sir. You’re a true American. All of you are true Americans, and I look forward to serving all of you for the next eight years. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to watch this great football game.

Reilly: Goodbye, Presi- wait, President Trump! Please take Charles Davis with you! Oh no, he already left! Now I have to deal with Charles Davis again next year, AHHHHHHHH!!! WHY GOD, WHY DO YOU HATE ME SO!?!?! We’ll be back after this…

ATLANTA OFFENSE: This is a battle between the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense, so we might as well begin with this side of the ball. Matt Ryan had an incredible, MVP-worthy regular season, and yet, he’s been even better in the playoffs. In two games, he’s a combined 53-of-75, 730 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. How good is that? Well, if you extrapolate those numbers over a 16-game slate, you’d get 5,840 yards, 56 touchdowns and zero picks. That would be the greatest regular season of all time.

Ryan is playing on a Peyton Manning-type cerebral level right now, but those sorts of numbers are unsustainable. Ryan has been tremendous at dissecting the opposition, but he did get to battle a pair of cream-puff defenses. The Seahawks haven’t been the same since losing Earl Thomas, while the Packers haven’t been able to stop the pass all year. Making matters worse for both teams, they both lost valuable members of their secondary during their losses to the Falcons.

The Patriots obviously boast a better defense. New England has taken on just two high-level quarterbacks all year, losing to Russell Wilson and beating Ben Roethlisberger. However, there’s no question that their defensive personnel is superior to what the Packers possess. They have a stud cornerback in Malcolm Butler, who can at least perhaps slow down Julio Jones, and they don’t really have any liabilities in their secondary, outside of Patrick Chung. I’m sure Kyle Shanahan will devise a game plan with Ryan to take advantage of this liability, but if we’re talking about coaching, Bill Belichick definitely has the edge in that regard.

Belichick is great at taking away one aspect of an opposing offense. We saw that in the AFC Championship when he erased Antonio Brown, though that was easier once Le’Veon Bell suffered an injury at the end of the first quarter. Still, Belichick has a history of this, and he’ll do his best to take Jones out of the game. Ryan will have to rely on other members of his offense, who, outside of his running backs, aren’t very good. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel have decent games once in a while – as we saw with Sanu in the NFC Championship – but relying on them doesn’t seem like the greatest option.

As for the running backs, I expect them to be heavily utilzed as receivers out of the backfield, but the Patriots stop the run pretty well. It’ll also hurt the ground attack if Alex Mack isn’t 100 percent. That’s very important, as Mack is a major reason why the Falcons are in the Super Bowl in the first place. Mack will play, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury and may not be effective. If so, that’s a huge blow for Atlanta.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Of the four units in this game, Atlanta’s defense is definitely the weakest. The Falcons have overachieved on this side of the ball, as they lack a consistent pass rush outside of Vic Beasley, and they’ve been bullied in the trenches at times. They also haven’t had their No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant since the end of November, but outside of Green Bay and New Orleans in the regular-season finale, they haven’t battled any strong downfield passing attacks. The Packers moved the ball very easily against them in the opening half, but were victimized by terrible luck, missing a chip-shot field goal and then losing a fumble inside the 5-yard line. Suddenly in a big hole, Aaron Rodgers had to press, and he didn’t get into a rhythm until the second half when it was too late.

With two weeks to prepare, Tom Brady will be able to dissect the holes in the Falcons’ stop unit. And there are definitely liabilites that can be exploited. Robert Alford isn’t very good, yet he’s forced to play more than he should because of the Trufant injury. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, meanwhile, has struggled as well. Nickel Brian Poole has been decent for a rookie, but Julian Edelman shouldn’t have any issues getting open against him.

Brady will have time to beat the Falcons, as he’s protected very well by his offensive line. There are a couple of spots in the interior that aren’t great, but his tackles block at a high level, and they should be able to keep Beasley out of the backfield on most occasions. Brady hates pressure up the middle more than anything anyway, and the Falcons aren’t great at generating that when they’re not blitzing.

Atlanta does blitz a lot, and that’s definitely something that’ll go in New England’s favor. Brady can be beaten with a stellar four-man pass rush – i.e. why the Giants have beaten him twice in the Super Bowl – but teams that blitz are torched mercilessly. Making matters worse for the Falcons, Brady has an extra week to figure out the blitz packages, so he’ll be able to make the appropriate adjustments.

Oh, and it doesn’t have to be all about Brady. LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis should have plenty of success on the ground. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run all year, and I’m sure this is something the Patriots will be able to exploit.

RECAP: The Patriots are the better team. They have the superior defense, and it’s not even close. The Falcons may have the hotter offense, but they haven’t really been tested yet. I would rate both scoring attacks pretty evenly for that reason, so I would favor the team with the better stop unit.

The problem is that the Patriots are favored already – and by a perfect sum. New England -3 feels like the right number. It seems like the most likely result of this game would be the Patriots winning by a field goal.

There’s one caveat, however, and that would be Mack’s health. As mentioned earlier, Mack has been absolutely instrumental for the Falcons’ success, and center is the No. 2 most-important position on offense. He’ll suit up, but if he’s ineffective, Atlanta’s offense will suffer.

For that reason, I’m taking the Patriots. It’s not much of an edge because Mack could turn out to be completely healthy, but if he’s not, it’s a big boost for New England.

As for a unit count, I’m going small, unfortunately. I wish we were getting a better number, like last year, when the superior team happened to be an underdog. But that’s not the case here. This spread is exactly where it should be.

I’m taking the Patriots for one unit. If this were a regular-season game, and there were 12-15 other contests on the slate, this would be a zero-unit pick. However, it’s the Super Bowl, and I at least want some action on the game. Plus, getting this pick right would mean that I’d finish above the $1,000 threshold, which is something. It’s a disappointment after I was up $5,000 or so at the beginning of November, but this was a very strange year in terms of favorites covering at a very unrealistic rate (see chart above). Besides, I escaped my losing funk, and I did learn a lot, so I think 2017 will be even better!

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time eight years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona money line. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There’s nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence (as long as there are no 100-percent USDA Men or kielbasas involved, of course).

Unfortunately, I don’t see any locks like this one. However, I found five props I really like:

1. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +110 (Bovada): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 12 of the 50 Super Bowls.

2. New England wins by 1-6 points +350; Atlanta wins by 1-6 points +450 (Bovada): I like this scheme because there’s a good chance we’ll get one of these two right. Most of the recent Super Bowls have been close, and the Patriots’ victories in their big games have been by 3, 3, 3 and 4.

3. Will there be a scoreless quarter – No -260 (Bovada): In the previous 11 Super Bowls, there have only been two scoreless quarters.

4. Will out-of-touch, clueless celebrities whine and complain about Donald Trump – Yes -1000000000000 (WalterBets.com): I’m making this one up if you couldn’t tell, but if it were real, I’d bet yes in an instant.

4. Donald Trump Picks Patriots to win -1200 (5Dimes): This is a very high price, so it’ll only be a half of a unit. Still, Trump is BFFs with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, so I’d be shocked if he picked Atlanta.

5. Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -110 (5Dimes): In the previous 30 Super Bowls, the second half is 19-10-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at just -110.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I like the Patriots moneyline (-145 at Bovada) rather than the -3. The most likely result is New England winning by three, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the team won by one or two. A price of -145 isn’t very expensive, as it’s low because the public likes to bet moneyline underdogs. At any rate, you can hear more about my thoughts on the Super Bowl on the picks podcast.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some big bets have come in from the sharps on the Falcons. However, I’ve heard that this could be a smoke screen to get a better number on the Falcons. We’ll see. Atlanta is available at +3 +105 at Bovada. Meanwhile, the Patriots went from -3 +106 to -3 +102 at Pinnacle this evening, so maybe those who have speculated a possible -3.5 could be right. I still expect the spread to stay the same, and I’d rather take the New England moneyline over anything else.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Well, it’s technically not the morning, but I just awoke to see the news about Alex Mack, who is playing with a fractured leg. It’s unclear how long he’ll play, which is very unfortunate for the Falcons. Mack is a huge reason why they’re in the Super Bowl, as he’s one of the top players at an extremely important position. If he’s ineffective or sidelined, that’s a monstrous advantage for the Patriots. Also, I thought about this last night, and Tom Brady has to be super pissed that Matt Ryan won the MVP. Brady is an ego maniac and will be in classic “FU mode” to prove that he should’ve won the award. I think Bill Belichick will be angry as well; I still don’t understand how Jason Garrett won Coach of the Year over him.

I’m going to lock in Patriots -3 for one unit right now, and I may add a second later today. I’ll be back with final thoughts before the game. I might be running a live blog as well, but I’m not sure. I’m in Houston for the Super Bowl. I’m not going to the game, but I was in town for a media event. So, I don’t know where or how I’m watching the game yet. If there’s no live Super Bowl blog, I’ll have something written up Monday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am still unsure if there will be a live Super Bowl blog. I have the page set up, but I’m not sure if I’ll be able to run one. But as for this game, I still like the Patriots, but I’m going to stick with one unit on -3 and one unit on the -145 moneyline. You can get -3 -105 at BetUS if you like the Patriots and +3 -105 at Bovada if you want the Falcons. I’ve noticed some sharp bets coming in on Atlanta this afternoon, for what it’s worth. The sharps haven’t done very well this year, so I’d take that with a grain of salt.

Live Super Bowl LI Blog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Early action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tom Brady is 207-65 as a starter (152-107 ATS).

Tom Brady is 24-9 in the playoffs (16-17 ATS).

Tom Brady is 10-3 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points. ???

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 57.5.

Weather: .

Super Bowl LI NFL Pick: Patriots 28, Falcons 24
Patriots -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 59 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +110 (2 Units) — Correct; +$220

New England wins by 1-6 points +350 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$350

Atlanta wins by 1-6 points +450 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Donald Trump Picks Patriots to Win -1200 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50

Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -110 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Patriots -145 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)