NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2012): 8-7-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 95-106-7 (-$1,670)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 10, 6:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

Miami Dolphins (5-7) at San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): 49ers -11.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): 49ers -11.
Sunday, Dec. 9, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 14 has been posted – Emmitt is finally on the right track to finding the mastermind behind Bountygate II!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Jim Harbaugh is once again making the right decision. No doubt about it. Harbaugh named Colin Kaepernick his starter despite the loss to the Rams. It’s the correct move because Kaepernick, while inexperienced, offers much more of a higher ceiling than Smith. The 49ers had a very minimal chance of winning the Super Bowl with Smith because he can’t attack downfield. Kaepernick can – and he offers great rushing ability to boot.

Kaepernick will need to use his scrambling skills against the Dolphins, who bring a forceful pass rush. Miami, tied for eighth in the NFL with 32 sacks, brought Tom Brady down behind the line of scrimmage on four occasions this past Sunday. The 49ers have permitted the seventh-most sacks in the league (34), so protecting their young signal-caller will be an issue.

The 49ers will need to respond by establishing Frank Gore. They should be able to do this, as the Dolphins have surrendered triple-digit rushing yards in their of their previous four contests.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Moving the chains on the ground will be much more challenging for the Dolphins. San Francisco ranks second versus the rush, holding its previous four foes to 3.26 YPC. The infrequently utilized Reggie Bush and pedestrian Daniel Thomas are just not good enough to even come close to challenging this strength of San Francisco’s.

So, if the Dolphins can’t run on the 49ers, how are they going to score? You got me. Normally, I’d say that there would be some opportunities for Ryan Tannehill in a secondary that isn’t as good as it was last year, but San Francisco figures to smother him at every chance. Left tackle Jake Long is out, meaning the ineffective Jonathan Martin will have to start on Tannehill’s blind side. Even worse, someone named Nate Garner will have to take Martin’s spot at right tackle.

The 49ers, who have a whopping 13 sacks in their previous three contests, have to be foaming at the mouth in anticipation of this matchup. There’s no one really in the receiving corps that they must focus on, so they can concentrate on teeing off on Tannehill.

RECAP: I really like the Dolphins to cover. This just seems like too many points. Miami has lost by more than a touchdown only once since Week 2.

The 49ers, meanwhile, probably won’t be focused. They’re coming off a tough overtime loss to the Rams and now have to play this non-conference tilt before battling the Patriots and Seahawks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Dolphins a good deal.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

Breather Alert: The 49ers have the Patriots and Seahawks after this easy win.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A decent amount of money on the host.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 66% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Dolphins are 15-3 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Dolphins are 7-12 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

49ers are 8-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Jim Harbaugh is 3-1 ATS following a loss.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 20, Dolphins 13
Dolphins +10 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 27, Dolphins 13

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5)
Line: Giants by 5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Giants -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Giants -5.
Sunday, Dec. 9, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Jerks of the Week for Dec. 3, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Facebook, Taco Bell People, CVS Patrons.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I watched the Saints-Falcons game with my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, and we literally said “wow” and “what the…” at least two dozen times. I’m sure you all had a similar reaction. I mean, how often are you going to see an elite quarterback self destruct like that? Drew Brees tossed a career-worst five interceptions, and most of them were on him rather than Atlanta making great plays.

Brees will rebound. He’s too good not to. He’s actually 2-1 (straight up and against the spread) after a game in which he’s tossed four picks. I know that it’s a small sample size, but it makes sense. Brees is just too good at his craft to put together consecutive stinkers. And the Giants, who have issues in their secondary, will be more than accommodating.

New York brings a good pass rush and the Saints have some blocking issues, so New Orleans will attempt to establish the run, just as it did versus Atlanta. It worked against the Falcons, who are 27th against ground attacks (4.6 YPC), and New York is only slightly better (21st; 4.5 YPC). The Saints should have a good running game again, which will only make things easier for Brees.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Of course, Eli Manning won’t face much resistance. The Saints’ defensive struggles are very well documented.

The worst aspect of New Orleans’ “stop” unit is its inability to contain the run. The team is dead last versus the rush, allowing 5.14 YPC. To demonstrate how bad that is, the 31st-place team, the Colts, give up 4.79 YPC. Michael Turner just looked like a spry 25-year-old, for crying out loud. After the game, I joked that the Giants could use Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber and still gain 100-plus yards on the ground.

Ahmad Bradshaw will rip right through the Saints’ front, which will make life so easy for Manning. The Saints are 31st versus the pass, thanks to a poor secondary and a lacking pass rush that has just five sacks in its previous four games. New Orleans may have something against decrepit right tackle David Diehl, who will be starting in place of Sean Locklear, but Manning should still be able to dissect the Saints with relative ease.

RECAP: I absolutely LOVE the Saints. I’d make them my Pick of the Month if the Giants weren’t coming off a loss. Still, I want to wager five units on them for the following reasons:

1. Brees is coming off an embarrassing loss, and he happens to be an underdog. He’s just too good not to play in this type of a situation. The last time he faced a similar dynamic, he nearly beat (but covered) at Green Bay in Week 4.

2. The Saints are playing a road game following an away loss. Teams cover at a 67-percent clip in games like this.

3. The Giants are not good as a big home favorite. In fact, they’re just a mediocre 5-8 against the spread when favored as hosts by 3.5-plus points coming off a loss. That record would be much worse, by the way, if it weren’t for bulls*** covers like this year’s victory over the Browns and a 2008 tilt versus San Francisco when they needed something crazy to happen at the end to beat the number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are still my No. 2 play of the week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 56% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 32-23 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 22-13 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Opening Line: Giants -4.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Giants 31, Saints 30
Saints +5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 52, Saints 27

Arizona Cardinals (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Line: Seahawks by 10. Total: 36.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Kolb).
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Seahawks -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Seahawks -9.
Sunday, Dec. 9, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

I had to argue with someone opining that the Bears would win 28-13:

I love how Niki Matarangas defended me. Yeah, I seriously doubt some of these jerks would be able to speak Migelini. Dan Coupez, meanwhile, is a jerk.

Normally, I’m the one who says that Russell Wilson is a great quarterback. That’s not the case here:

Well, Mario Migelini and Bjorn Fetveit were at least right this past Sunday.

Here was Migelini’s predicted score for the Chicago game:

No NFL team has actually finished with four points (dating back to 1989) – but Penn State did about a decade ago in a 6-4 loss to Iowa.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Let’s start with the Cardinals’ “scoring” attack because of how futile they are. Where to begin… Ryan Lindley might just be the worst quarterback in NFL history. Chris Wells is not healthy. The offensive line can’t block. And Larry Fitzgerald is literally on the verge of tears because no one can get him the football.

There is a glimmer of hope, and that glimmer is Kevin Kolb. He practiced all week last week, albeit on a limited basis. He still needs to be cleared by doctors, but it appears as though there’s an outside chance he’ll be under center. If so, the Cardinals might be able to move the chains and stay in this game. If not, Richard Sherman will have a field day intercepting Lindley’s horrific throws.

The Seahawks can be beaten on the ground. Defensive end Red Bryant is playing hurt, while defensive tackle Brandon Mebane is struggling. Seattle has surrendered a ridiculous 5.99 yards per carry to its previous four opponents. Arizona, however, probably won’t be able to take advantage of this liability. As mentioned, Wells is clearly not 100 percent. He has looked terrible since coming back from injury.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Ruskell Wilkens is truly an “MVP Canadate.” OK, maybe not an MVP candidate, but he’d be the leader for offensive rookie of the year if it weren’t for Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck. Wilson was incredible in those final two drives against the Bears.

Playing the Cardinals will be a challenge for Wilson though if stud defensive end Calais Campbell is back in the lineup. Campbell was reportedly close to playing in Week 13. His return would give Arizona a great interior pass-rushing presence that will put lots of pressure on Wilson, who may not have No. 1 receiver Sidney Rice, who suffered a concussion at the end of the Chicago game. Having said that though, Wilson is so dangerous when scrambling, so the Cardinals should attempt to keep him in the pocket.

The Seahawks need to run the ball more this week. They didn’t give Marshawn Lynch enough carries at Chicago, though it ultimately didn’t matter. The Cardinals have struggled tremendously against the run since the beginning of October when Darnell Dockett got hurt. He’s never recovered. Arizona’s issues versus the rush have gotten so bad that even Shonn Greene looked solid this past Sunday.

RECAP: I think Arizona is the right side, even if Lindley starts. The Cardinals have a good defense and usually keep things close, losing by more than two touchdowns just once all year. This is a lot of points; it’s the first time Seattle is favored by more than 5.5 all year, and the team has just two victories of more than 10.

The Cardinals are in the favorable position of being a road underdog following a road loss. Teams cover at a two-thirds clip in that scenario. Plus, there’s that awesome trend I mentioned at the end of the Eagles-Buccaneers capsule. I’d like to take Arizona for three or four units, but I can’t bet more than two with Lindley under center. If Kolb comes back, I’ll increase my wager.

UNIT CHANGE: John Skelton is starting, so I’m bumping this up to three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still three units on Red Skelton and the Cardinals.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
I’m surprised more people aren’t on the Seahawks despite the large spread.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 5 of the past 6 meetings.

Seahawks are 17-5 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Seahawks 16, Cardinals 12
Cardinals +10 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 36 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 58, Cardinals 0

Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Packers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Packers -7.
Sunday, Dec. 9, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron.

Check out how many random accounts confused normal people here. And no, I don’t own any of these accounts, save for Mario Migelini.

The biggest take-away here is that there are delusional people who actually think that Ray Rice picked up the first down.

Here’s a new troller named Jose Garcia:

The Cardinals “might have dropped off a little since then.” Hilarious.

Here’s another new troller named Moched Mableef:

And here’s Victor Valentino again:

Mark Harrison – what a dick. Not only is he racist; he’s addressing the wrong person. I’m not Victor Valentino. Idiot.

DETROIT OFFENSE: These teams just played in Week 11. Matthew Stafford did not have his best game, going 17-of-39 for 266 yards, one touchdowns, two picks and a lost fumble. He had accuracy problems all afternoon, as he missed Calvin Johnson for two potential scores. Stafford was sacked five times. This had to be troubling for Lion fans because Green Bay was missing Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews.

Part of the reason for Stafford’s poor protection was that left tackle Jeff Backus suffered an injury, which thrust rookie Riley Reiff into the lineup. Reiff was not very good in relief, so with Backus returning to the lineup, perhaps Stafford will have more success throwing the ball.

The Lions were able to move the chains by handing it off to Mikel Leshoure, who rushed for 84 yards on 19 carries. The Packers just nearly allowed Adrian Peterson to break his own single-game rushing record, so they haven’t shown any improvement in terms of stopping the run. Leshoure should once again have success.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As for Aaron Rodgers in that aforementioned Week 11 clash, he went 19-of-27 for 236 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. He also had issues with pass protection, getting sacked on three occasions, twice by Nick Fairley, who dominated the line of scrimmage. The blocking has not improved since; Rodgers took five sacks the following week at New York.

Making matters worse for Rodgers, Jordy Nelson is likely out. Greg Jennings didn’t appear to be 100 percent last week either, so Rodgers’ options will be limited. Still, it’d be foolish to think that he’ll have a bad game, especially against Detroit’s secondary. He was so dynamic last week on third down. He can be downright lethal sometimes.

The Packers tried their hardest to run the ball last time. In fact, they gave way too many carries to James Starks, who had just 74 yards on 25 carries. They found a way to move it on the ground effectively last week, but that might have been a fluke. Besides, Starks is out with a knee injury.

RECAP: I like the Lions enough to bet three units on them. They seldom get blown out. They’ve lost by double digits only once this year. Stafford is very good at converting backdoor touchdowns, as we witnessed on a Monday night against the Bears.

Also, the Lions have nothing to play for besides beating their arch rival. They hate the Packers and would love to knock them out of first place. This is their Super Bowl. The Packers, meanwhile, have a more important game against the Bears next week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m tempted to go four units on the Lions. If I knew for sure that Green Bay would be an underdog next week, I’d make the move, but I can’t for now.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edgge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No surprise that people are betting the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 74% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Packers are 20-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-21 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -6.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Lions 23
Lions +6.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 27, Lions 20

Houston Texans (11-1) at New England Patriots (9-3)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Patriots -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Patriots -4.
Monday, Dec. 10, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New England, home of the… wait, what is this? Charles Davis is back? And who is that gentleman who is with you?

Davis: Kevin, you told me not to return until I had something intelligent to say. I sat in my house for a couple of weeks and thought about it. I then read some books. Some magazines. Watched TV. Watched a movie. Took a walk. Still nothing. Then it dawned on me that I could bring someone in to help me. I found Phil Simms wandering the streets and I asked him to stop by.

Phil Simms: Hey, how are you doing? How am I doing? OK, I guess. Had a great lunch today. What did I have? Oh, some microwave pizza. It was delicious. And you’re wondering what I had to drink? Well, some apple juice, of course.

Reilly: Oh, I know who you are. You’re the guy who used to play for the Giants. You always beat my Eagles! Go away!

Tollefson: Now, now, Kevin, it might not be a bad idea to have a former quarterback in the booth with us.

Griese: Wait, we have a former quarterback already! His name is… weh?

Tollefson: As I was saying, a former quarterback could help us score some hot chicks. Hey Phil, do you know any hot chicks who could bang us and then make us a three-course meal and then clean our house and then bang us again in French-maid costumes?

Simms: Everyone always asks me if I attracted a lot of girls. They ask, Phil, how many women have you slept with? And what do I answer? Oh, well a gentleman never kisses and tells. But if I was forthcoming? Oh, well, I’d say a good amount. How much, you ask? Well, I’d have to check my notes, of course. I always keep a tally in my notebook. Why do I do this? Well, I don’t have a good memory to be honest. You can’t imagine what I forget on a daily basis. What do I forget? Well, I once forgot my underpants when I was getting dressed. I was halfway to work when I realized. I said, “Phil, you don’t have any underpants on.” And then I replied, “Yes, I know, Phil, why did you forget your underpants?” And then I said, “Well, I don’t know, if I knew the answer to that question, Phil, you would be wearing underpants, wouldn’t you?”

Millen: Underpants? Tell me more, Phil.

Simms: Oh, you want to know about my underpants? Well, they are the ones with the red hearts on them. Why’d I buy something that looks like that? Well, they were on sale, that’s why. And they matched my eyes too.

Millen: Oh yeah. That sounds great, Phil. Tell me more.

Simms: Well, I don’t know what else to say. Oh, do you want to know what my wife thinks of them? Well, my wife…

Millen: Wife? Damn it.

Simms: Now, don’t you say “damn it” about my wife like that. Why do I care so much? Well, it’s just not polite that’s all. It reminds me of what my mother taught me. What did she say, exactly? Oh, she said if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. Why shouldn’t you say anything that’s not nice? Well, I don’t know. It’s just something my mother used to always say. Oh, you want to know what else she taught me? Well, I can tell you, of course.

Emmitt: Phil Slims, why you always askin’ yourselves question?

Reilly: I couldn’t agree more with you, Emmitt. All this guy does is answer his own questions. Nice try, charles Davis, now go rot in hell. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots had trouble scoring at Miami because they couldn’t protect Tom Brady. After taking just one sack between Weeks 8 and 12, Brady was brought down behind the line of scrimmage four times against the Dolphins. So, what happened? Well, Cameron Wake dominated right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, for one. The more glaring issue was what happened to Dan Connolly. The right guard injured his back and left the game early on. His replacement, Nick McDonald, couldn’t block anyone.

Connolly is tentatively listed as questionable, but back injuries have a tendency to linger. If he can’t play, it’s terrible news for Brady because McDonald will be matched up against J.J. Watt, whose mouth will be watering in anticipation of increasing his already-impressive sack total. As a result, Brady won’t have much time to find his receivers downfield against a secondary that should be welcoming back top corner Johnathan Joseph.

The Patriots will also struggle to run the football. Stevan Ridley has been solid this year, but Houston’s defense hasn’t surrendered more than 100 rushing yards to a team since Week 4. Connolly’s potential absence would also have a major impact in this area.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the Texans stop opposing ground attacks well, New England hasn’t been nearly as effective in that area. The team has permitted fewer than 100 rushing yards to just one opponent dating back to Week 6. The exception occurred last week, but the Dolphins still nearly rushed for four yards per carry behind an offensive line that was missing Jake Long for the majority of the game.

The Texans’ entire scoring attack is predicated off the run, which allows Matt Schaub to perform his patented play-action bootlegs. Schaub will be able to orchestrate these flawlessly with Arian Foster ripping off big gains. Schaub will then be able to attack a secondary featuring very shaky safeties.

New England will need to stop Foster and pressure Schaub in obvious passing situations to get off the field. The first part will be difficult, so the latter will also be problematic, as Schaub will figure to be in short-yardage downs for most of the evening. It will help the Patriots though if their top pass-rusher, Chandler Jones, is back in the lineup. He has missed the past two games with an ankle injury.

RECAP: The Texans are the better team, especially if Connolly is out of the lineup, but I think the Patriots are the right side because Houston is playing its third-consecutive road game. Underdogs in this situation have a dubious history of covering the spread over the years. I’m only going one unit on New England though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, what’s with the line movement? I was considering adding units on the Patriots, but there’s poor spread value now. I’m keeping one unit on New England.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 52% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 23-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 143-47 as a starter (110-75 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 30, Texans 24
Patriots -5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 42, Texans 14

Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games
Broncos at Raiders, Falcons at Panthers, Chiefs at Browns, Titans at Colts, Bears at Vikings, Chargers at Steelers, Eagles at Buccaneers, Ravens at Redskins, Rams at Bills, Cowboys at Bengals, Jets at Jaguars

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Steelers -1, Packers -0.5 (2 units) — Incorrect; -$220

Moneyline Underdog: Saints +195 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)