NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)

NFL Picks (2011): 123-121-11 (-$3,590)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 1, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6)
Line: Falcons by 10. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Falcons -14 OR Falcons -7.5 (starters).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Falcons -14.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. We were down to our final two last week, and both survived, picking the Panthers and Ravens.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have the personnel to be explosive on offense. The problem is that the team keeps bogging down in the red zone. That won’t be an issue this week, at least, because the Buccaneers have a poor red zone defense.

Of course, Tampa is terrible everywhere. The team just surrendered 205 rushing yards to the Panthers (excluding Cam Newton’s numbers), so Michael Turner will go off.

The pass defense is just as bad. Tampa is ranked 30th in that department, yielding an 8.2 YPA, thanks to a league-worst 23 sacks and shoddy tackling in the back seven. Matt Ryan won’t have much difficulty moving the chains in this contest.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons don’t have a very good defense either, but the Buccaneers won’t pose much of a threat to score. They don’t have anyone who can make big plays, while Josh Freeman has been too careless with the football this year.

It doesn’t help that the coaching staff benched LeGarrette Blount after an early fumble last week. Blount is the only skilled running back on the roster, and he could expose an Atlanta ground defense that has surrendered at least 111 rushing yards to its previous four opponents. But will Blount play much? What if he fumbles again? And will he be on the field at all if the Falcons establish a big lead?

Freeman’s offense just isn’t built to mount a comeback of any sort. As mentioned, he lacks play-makers, while his pass protection struggles most of the time. The Falcons couldn’t get to Drew Brees on Monday night, but that definitely won’t be the case this week.

RECAP: The Falcons are in a tough spot. They were just suffered an emotional loss to their arch rival and were blown out on Monday Night Football.

Ordinarily, this would be a play-against situation, but the Buccaneers have quit on Raheem Morris. I don’t understand how anyone can put any money on Tampa Bay.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Falcons could be flat following that loss to the Saints. Fortunately for them, the Buccaneers have quit.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

There aren’t many people who want to bet on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 75% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 5 the last 6 meetings.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 21-37 ATS since 1999.

Matt Ryan is 19-9 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 15-5 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Falcons -12.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Falcons 41, Buccaneers 14
Falcons -10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 45, Buccaneers 24

Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Ravens -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Ravens -3.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 16 has been posted – Merril Hoge plots to destroy the world.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens definitely aren’t going into the playoffs on a high note. They’ve really struggled offensively, with Joe Flacco going 44-of-81, 516 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions in three of his previous four outings, with the discarded game being against Indianapolis. That’s a completion percentage of 54.3 and a YPA of 6.4 – both pedestrian numbers.

Flacco’s numbers are important because he’ll have to throw often in this contest. Even if Cam Cameron remembers to call running plays for Ray Rice, the Ravens are far from guaranteed to have success on the ground because the Bengals rank fourth versus the rush (3.8 YPC).

Rice still needs to get the ball as much as possible to take pressure off Flacco. The Bengals have a whopping 13 sacks in their previous three contests, so don’t count on Baltimore moving the chains very much if it’s stuck in third-and-long situations all afternoon.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals probably won’t have much luck scoring either. The Ravens have been a bit suspect in terms of stopping the run recently (two consecutive 110-yard rushing performances allowed), but Cedric Benson is slow and sluggish, and won’t be capable of taking advantage of Baltimore’s struggles. In fact, Cincinnati will be lucky if he doesn’t fumble the ball away.

Andy Dalton will be asked to throw too much for Marvin Lewis’ liking in this contest. Dalton accumulated 373 passing yards in a Week 11 tilt at Baltimore, but most of that came in garbage time. Dalton was responsible for three interceptions in that contest. That obviously can’t happen again if Cincinnati wants to qualify for the playoffs.

Having said that, it’s worth noting that Dalton did not have A.J. Green for that prior meeting against the Ravens. If Dalton can take care of the football, the Bengals could win this game.

RECAP: The Ravens haven’t covered the spread since beating the Browns in Week 13. I’m taking the Bengals to beat overrated Baltimore because there’s no pressure on them to win this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Slight lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 63% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won the last 2 meetings.

Bengals are 17-8 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 25 MPH.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bengals 16, Ravens 13
Bengals +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 24, Bengals 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-11)
Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 33.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Steelers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Steelers -7.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 26, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Christmas Jerks of the Mall.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: This is the only game without a spread because of Ben Roethlisberger. Based on how Charlie Batch played last week, however, you’d think Vegas would be confident in posting a line. Like Big Ben, Batch was able to duck and elude defenders in the pocket long enough to find his targets downfield.

Reports indicate that the Steelers want Roethlisberger to play 25-30 snaps in this contest so he’s ready for the playoffs. If Big Ben suits up, it’s reasonable to expect Pittsburgh’s aerial attack to struggle a bit because the Browns are pretty decent versus the pass, thanks to Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden.

Fortunately for the Steelers, they’ll be able to run the ball extremely well for the second consecutive week. The Browns have surrendered at least 98 rushing yards to all but one opponent dating back to Week 7. Expect a heavy dose of Rashard Mendenhall regardless of which quarterback is under center.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns also have an injury situation with their signal-caller. Coming off the James Harrison-induced concussion, McCoy is finally working out and attending team meetings. He might be ready to play Sunday, but will the Browns even want him in the lineup? Seneca Wallace hasn’t been a downgrade as a replacement, but the coaching staff may want to give McCoy one final chance to prove himself before they trade up for Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Either way, the Browns won’t be able to move the chains all that much. The offensive line won’t hold up in pass protection, especially with Harrison back from his one-game suspension. Cleveland’s quarterback will often have to run for his life, and if it’s McCoy, he could be skittish if Harrison is in the vicinity.

The Browns could have some success by pounding the rock with Peyton Hillis, but this assumes that they won’t be in an early hole. These teams met in Week 14, and Cleveland was able to hang around because of two red-zone fumbles by the Steelers. They may not be so lucky this time.

RECAP: Mike Tomlin loves winning these Week 17 games, and I have to believe he’ll notch another victory in the final week of the year. As noted above, he wants Roethlisberger to heat up for the playoff run, so the Steelers will be completely focused.

I really like Pittsburgh. I’ll have an official pick posted when there’s a spread available. Check back later in the week.

LINE POSTED: This line is low enough for me to like the Steelers for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise that people are betting the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 81% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Steelers have won 21 of the last 23 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 27-16 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.

Opening Total: 36.

Weather: Possible snow, 38 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 25 MPH.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 6
Steelers -7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 33 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 13, Browns 9

San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Chargers -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Raiders -3.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

These five are all from the same person. This guy is obviously the coolest person alive. Check out how cool his posts are:

What was he doing between four days and “about 13 hours?” Was he at the corner selling drugs? Shooting people? Doing other gangsta things? (I don’t know what else they do.) Hardly. His mom came down to the basement of her suburban home to inform him that he had a tennis match to train for at the local country club.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: What the hell happened to Philip Rivers last week? It didn’t surprise me at all to see the Charger defense wilt away against Matthew Stafford, but Rivers choking was somewhat more unexpected. Of course, the Bastard of the Trident has a history of gagging in must-win games, so I guess I shouldn’t be too shocked.

Well, Rivers doesn’t have to win this contest because the Chargers have been eliminated from the playoffs. This means that Rivers/Frey/Tully can revert back to his awesome self. The Raiders won’t be pleased to hear that, given that they’ve surrendered at least 281 passing yards to each of their previous three opponents, including Kyle Orton, whom they failed to sack.

The Raiders are even worse in terms of stopping the run, ranking 31st in the NFL (4.95 YPC). I fully expect Ryan Mathews to have a huge outing.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: After struggling immensely for a few weeks, Carson Palmer has put together two quality performances. He was great against the Lions in Week 15, and was able to maintain a 9.1 YPA this past Saturday, thanks to the return of talented receiver Denarius Moore.

The problem with Palmer is that he’s been turning the ball over far too often. He’s thrown eight picks in his previous four outings. Fortunately for him, San Diego’s injury-ravaged defense won’t pose much of a challenge; the Chargers rank 27th versus aerial attacks (7.8 YPA), looking completely helpless at Ford Field this past Saturday.

Some more good news for Palmer: He could have Darren McFadden and Jacoby Ford finally back from foot injuries. It’s not yet clear if they’ll play, but the Oakland Tribune recently said it’s likely that both would be able to suit up. I don’t need to tell you that their availability would be a huge boost for the Raiders’ scoring attack.

RECAP: This is a pretty dead-even matchup, as both offenses are fully capable of scoring early and often. Both teams are also prone to committing dumb mistakes, so there’s that too.

Having said that, I absolutely love the Chargers. This is their type of game. There’s no pressure on them, so they can perform at peak efficiency. If you recall what happened last year, San Diego choked against the Bengals in a must-win in Week 16. Because of that loss, they were eliminated from the playoffs. That didn’t stop them from slaughtering Denver the following Sunday.

The Raiders, conversely, need to win to stay alive. Remember what I wrote earlier – favorites that need to win in Week 17 often gag.

Two other things to consider: We’re getting points with Philip Rivers, which is usually a good proposition, and San Diego is playing its second consecutive road game as an underdog following a loss, which is a 67-percent covering dynamic with a huge sample size.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Raiders are favored and need to win. Choke alert!

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 56% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Raiders have won the last 3 meetings (Raiders 5-0 ATS last 5).

Philip Rivers is 22-12 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (7-3 ATS as an underdog).

Philip Rivers is 13-9 ATS as an underdog.

Raiders are 5-18 ATS in their final home game since 1985.

Raiders are 5-22 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 4-13 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Raiders are 2-6 ATS in Week 17 since 2003.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 26
Chargers +2.5 -105 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 38, Raiders 26

Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7)
Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Broncos -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Broncos -6.

Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I’ve been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.

Aaron’s been having issues lately with a user named SuckOnMyFootball:

I love how Aaron cowers in fear and asks female posters to help him with SuckOnMyFootball. And as you can see, this has not stopped him from trying to game the ladies. The caps in the message sent to StrikerSarah was a nice touch. And if the “PLEASE SARAH” doesn’t work, then I don’t know anything about women.

StrikerSarah didn’t get back to him, but DFChargerGirl did:

PG-rated!?!?!? But “nacked pic” can’t be PG-rated!!!!

I love how he asked what PG was, and not temperamental. But surely, DFChargerGirl would get the hint that Aaron is a creeper and wouldn’t respond to him, right? Wrong!

Let me save you some time, Italiana Bmbina. “Can I have nacked pick or bikini pic? PLEASE ITALIANA BMBINA!!!”

DENVER OFFENSE: Merril Hoge’s plan of destroying Tim Tebow is finally coming to fruition. He’s not using a mythical beast named Factor Back to do so, but he’s somehow transformed everyone’s favorite quarterback into a turnover machine. Tebow had four interceptions, including two pick-sixes, against Buffalo of all teams.

The Chiefs are going to provide much more of a challenge. I’ll be shocked if Romeo Crennel doesn’t come up with some sort of brilliant game plan to neutralize Tebow. He shut down Green Bay’s scoring attack, so why can’t he cause havoc for America’s favorite super hero?

Tebow already battled this Kansas City squad. Back in Week 11, his team was able to gain 147 rushing yards against the Chiefs if you exclude his own rushing numbers. Crennel’s stop unit has been better versus ground attacks recently, however, limiting three of its previous four opponents to 90 rushing yards or fewer. Denver couldn’t even run the ball against the Bills anyway.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Denver’s defense was playing extremely well about a month ago, but the wheels have fallen off. Von Miller hasn’t been himself since his thumb injury. Brian Dawkins hasn’t played, which has exposed the secondary. Now, free safety Quinton Carter suffered a hamstring injury, so the Broncos will be starting two reserve safeties in the defensive backfield. That’s definitely going to be an issue.

Kyle Orton has stabilized this Kansas City team that was spiraling into oblivion because of Tyler Palko’s ineptness. Orton offers no big-play ability and he sucks in the red zone, but unlike Palko, he’s a professional quarterback and is more than capable of taking advantage of the holes in Denver’s secondary.

The Broncos also struggle versus the run, as each of their previous five opponents have all tallied 113 rushing yards or more. I don’t know if the Chiefs will be able to reach that figure with their mediocre stable of running backs, but they’ll be effective in moving the chains and setting up Orton in favorable situations.

RECAP: This is yet another choking situation where a favorite has to win. The Broncos are a fairly young team that hasn’t been in the playoffs since battling the Steelers in the AFC Championship back in January 2006, so they’re not used to this sort of pressure.

In addition to the gag threat, I’d be worried about Orton if I were a Denver fan. Not because of Orton’s throwing ability, but because he knows all of Denver’s dirty little secrets, including the audibles. I have no idea why the Broncos cut him. That decision could really come back to haunt them Sunday afternoon.

Tebow might find some way to win, as he usually does, but I’m taking the points for a moderately sized wager.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Broncos are favored and need to win. Choke alert!

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 57% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 21 meetings.

Chiefs are 23-14 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Broncos are 22-14 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 36 instances.

Tim Tebow is 6-3 ATS as an underdog or favorite of -3 or less.

John Fox is 6-2 ATS in Week 17 games.

Broncos are 10-33 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Broncos 17, Chiefs 16
Chiefs +2 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 7, Broncos 3

Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

If you followed my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb is still suffering from concussion symptoms – no surprise there because he’s had three in his career – so it sounds like John Skelton will start the final game of the year. I guess that means the Cardinals will suck for three quarters and come roaring back in the fourth.

It’ll be tough for Skelton to consistently move the chains on his own because Seattle’s secondary has really improved during the course of this season. The safeties are great, while the young corners just keep getting better and better. The Seahawks have a tough task in stopping Larry Fitzgerald, however, so the Cardinals will definitely be able to score at times.

Arizona’s best chance of getting into the end zone is establishing the run with Chris Wells. The Seahawks used to have a top-five rush defense, but they’ve surrendered at least 98 rushing yards to their previous five opponents.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb is likely out, but the major injury for the Cardinals is to Patrick Peterson, who has an inflamed Achilles’ tendon. He could sit as a precaution.

Peterson’s absence will obviously have a huge impact on special teams. It’ll also have a big effect on the defense. Peterson struggled as a corner early on, but has improved markedly since Thanksgiving. Tarvaris Jackson has to be thrilled about Peterson’s injury because he needs all the help he can get.

Of course, the Seahawks will attempt to establish Marshawn “Marchel” “Beast Mode” “Commander of the Skittle Warriors” “Green Skittle” “Runny Guy” Lynch, who is going to earn a big contract for his hard running this year. Lynch will have one last strong outing versus a defense that has yielded at least 93 rushing yards to each of its previous three foes.

RECAP: I honestly don’t know what to do with this game. I’ve flip-flopped between Seattle and Arizona so many times. I ultimately decided on the Seahawks because Peterson is out. And besides, when in doubt, take the points.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams figure to be deflated.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The Seahawks are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Seahawks have won the last 3 meetings.

Seahawks are 9-5 ATS in their road finale since 1996.

Seahawks are 17-32 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cardinals are 22-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 15-6 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt. ???

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Seahawks 23
Seahawks +3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20

Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Giants -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Giants -4.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

It’s Sunday Night Football, but we’re going to have Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New York, the most evil city in the world except for Dallas! Tonight, the Cowboys play the Giants in a stupid game that doesn’t even matter because the Eagles beat them three out of four times. Losers. Guys, should the Eagles be given a chance to make the playoffs because the Cowboys and Giants suck so much?

Emmitt: Mike, the Eagle have lossed too many game to make the doggone playoff. Obviously if they losed less game they can make the doggone playoff in the NFL conference of football, but they shot themself in the head too many time.

Reilly: Emmitt, why do you hate the Eagles so much? Why does everyone hate the Eagles? All of you! That’s why I’ve brought you all Christmas presents.

Herm: Can’t wait for the gift! Can’t wait! Been waiting! Waiting one year! Waiting two years! Waiting three years! We’ve been working together and you never bought me anything! Never nothing! Always forgot! Always giftless! Now here’s a gift! Can’t wait to open! Can’t wait to unwrap! Can’t wait to play with it! Can’t wait… uhh…

Reilly: Be careful what you wish for, stupid Herm!

Millen: I wonder what my present is. I wrote a letter to Santa asking for various meat products that I can share with my 100-percent USDA Man friends. And here’s what I mean by writing a letter to Santa. I went to the store and bought a piece of paper. Then I went to another store and bought a pen. Then I drove home and ate a sandwich. Then, I took a bath with some kielbasa. Then, I sat down at my desk and wrote to Santa. Then, I went to the mailbox and mailed it to Santa. Then, I came home and took a nap with some kielbasa.

Tollefson: Kevin, I hope you got me the latest porno, Chicks Should Be Cooking and Cleaning Part IX. I’ve had my eye on that for weeks.

Emmitt: Mike, you do not has to get me any present. The greatest gift in the world watchin’ the Cowboy tryin’ to get into the doggone playoff for the first time in a few weeks, or maybe a few year, on New Years Eve Day.

Reilly: You guys are all wrong. I’ve bought you all pieces of rope so I can hang you for hating my Eagles! Ha!

Millen: Rope? How intriguing. Perhaps sticking it into my backside would be fun.

Tollefson: Millen, you idiot, you’re supposed to tie chicks up with it in bed, after they cook and clean for you, of course.

Reilly: Argh, you idiots! I’m supposed to hang you with it! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo’s throwing hand was a hideous sight this past Saturday. It was so swollen after he hit it on the helmet of a Philadelphia defender. Fortunately, nothing is broken, so he’ll be able to start Sunday night.

It’s impossible to know how effective Romo will be, however. It’s a good sign that the Cowboys aren’t pursuing a veteran quarterback right now, but that doesn’t say all that much. If Romo is fine, he’ll be able to torch the New York secondary like he did in Week 14. He went 21-of-31 for 321 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in that contest. If, however, Romo can’t throw the ball as well as he’d like to, then I don’t need to tell you that it will hinder Dallas’ offense.

If it’s any consolation, Felix Jones will start in this contest. He injured his hamstring against the Buccaneers, but was able to rest last week because the game meant nothing. Jones gashed the Giants to the tune of 106 yards on just 16 carries in Week 14, so having him back is obviously a big boost.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Remember Eli Manning’s performance against the Cowboys when he engineered that magical fourth-quarter comeback? He threw for 400 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and all the talk was that he may have eclipsed Peyton Manning as the superior brother in that family.

What’s happened since then? Manning has gone just 32-of-67 for 482 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions the past two weeks. I understand struggling against Darrelle Revis and the Jets, but three picks against the Redskins at home? What’s that about?

Manning still has a plus matchup though. Nothing has really changed in three weeks, so he’ll be able to torch Dallas’ inept secondary if he can stop struggling. Whether he can rebound or not is anyone’s guess.

The Giants will at least be able to run the football somewhat effectively. Ahmad Bradshaw is finally healthy, and New York gained close to four yards per carry at Dallas without him doing much.

RECAP: Both teams are renowned for choking. Which one is less likely to gag? Most people think it’s New York, but I’m going to say Dallas.

The Giants are at home. The Giants are favored. Most people expect them to win. Meanwhile, the excuses are already in place for Dallas with Romo nursing a bruised hand.

With all the pressure off their shoulders, I’m going to say that the Cowboys will prevail. I wouldn’t bet heavily on it though, just in case Romo’s hand is too messed up.

TEASER HEDGE: I hit the first two legs of my teaser. I’m going to hedge Cowboys +13 with Giants -3 -115. Perhaps I’ll middle.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is for all the marbles.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

These teams are even despite the fact that Tony Romo may not be 100 percent?

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Cowboys are 13-6 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Tony Romo is 7-16 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (1-5 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, Giants 28
Cowboys +3 -105 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$105
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 31, Cowboys 14
MISSING

Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bills at Patriots, Bears at Vikings, Panthers at Saints, Jets at Dolphins, Colts at Jaguars, Lions at Packers, 49ers at Rams, Redskins at Eagles, Titans at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -0.5, 49ers -0.5, Cowboys +13 (3 Units; will hedge NYG -3 at 7:30 p.m. if NE & SF win) — Incorrect; -$330

Teaser Hedge: Giants -3 -115 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +280 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 22

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)