NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)

NFL Picks (2011): 82-85-8 (-$4,025)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 28, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Chicago Bears (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (6-4)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Raiders -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Raiders -4.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 11 has been posted – fallout from the Michael Vick dog raping scandal.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler is out with a fractured thumb, but that doesn’t mean that the Bears won’t be able to score. Cal Hanie is a quality backup who performed well in the NFC Championship against the Packers.

Of course, the Bears are going to put the ball in Matt Forte’s hands as frequently as possible. The Raiders rank 27th against the rush (4.9 YPC) and figure to be shorthanded with Richard Seymour battling a knee injury. Seymour played at Minnesota, but was pretty limited.

Even with Seymour barely playing, the Raiders were still able to sack Christian Ponder five times. Thus, it’s important for Mike Martz to lean heavily on Forte. If the Bears fall behind early, however, they could be in big trouble.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Vikings were sixth against the run going into Sunday’s contest, yet the Raiders still piled up 147 rushing yards against them. Oakland runs the ball as well as anyone, so even though Chicago hasn’t surrendered more than 85 rushing yards to any opponent since Week 5, Michael Bush still could have success on the ground.

With Bush picking up big chunks of yardage and Carson Palmer playing well, Oakland’s offense is pretty difficult to stop. But if anyone can put the clamps on the Raiders, it’s the Bears, who have been a different team since making the appropriate changes to the safety position in early October.

Since Week 6, Chicago has limited opposing quarterbacks to a 6.1 YPA, which would be good for third in the NFL. Knowing that they have to give 110-percent effort in the wake of the Cutler injury, I expect the Bears to have a spirited defensive performance and shut down Oakland’s offense.

RECAP: I mentioned this in the Texans-Jaguars preview. I love picking good teams playing without their starting quarterback for the first time. The Bears are a proud veteran squad, and I’m sure they’ve taken umbrage to all the media people who are writing them off now that Cutler is out for about six weeks.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Bears will bring 110-percent effort with Jay Cutler out.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 53% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Bears are 26-14 ATS in November since 2001.

Bears are 4-16 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.

Raiders are 4-12 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Raiders 16
Bears +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 25, Bears 20
MISSING

Washington Redskins (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-6)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Seahawks -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Seahawks -5.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 21, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Jerks of the Wedding.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins got a lot of “Good Rex” from the unbearably inconsistent Rex Grossman last week. Unfortunately, it still wasn’t enough, as Graham Gano whiffed on a potential decisive field goal in overtime.

Will we see “Good Rex” or “Bad Rex” in this contest? I wish I could provide a detailed answer for you, but it’s just impossible to guess which Grossman will show up. He’s so erratic and unpredictable.

What we do know is that the Redskins won’t be able to run the ball. Mike Shanahan gave eight carries each to Roy Helu, Ryan Torain and Tashard Choice against the Cowboys. Helu predictably was the most productive, but Shanahan is being stupid and not committing to Helu for some strange reason. I get that Helu isn’t good in pass protection, but Torain isn’t either. At 3-7, you have to give Helu a chance to see what you have for the future. But whatever. I’m not a coach who hasn’t done crap since John Elway retired.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: We saw some “Bad Tarvaris” against the Rams on Sunday, but that didn’t keep the Seahawks from prevailing. Tarvaris Jackson tossed two first-quarter interceptions and took some bad sacks as he tried to do too much in the pocket.

Jackson will need to be smarter in this contest because the Redskins are currently tied for the most sacks in the NFL (31). Seattle’s offensive line is missing two starters, so Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan will easily put pressure on the Seahawk signal-caller.

Seattle will need to rely on Marshawn Lynch again, but that’ll be difficult for two reasons. As mentioned, two linemen are hurt. Also, the Redskins have done a phenomenal job against the run the past two weeks, limiting a red-hot DeMarco Murray to just 73 yards on 25 carries.

RECAP: The Redskins battled the Cowboys really well last week. Almost too well. Coming off an emotional loss, they have to travel across the country to play this meaningless game. I don’t know how they’re going to get up for Seattle.

The Seahawks are probably the right side, but this is going to be a zero-unit wager because I think they’re due for a big drop-off in the wake of losing James Carpenter and John Moffitt.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Redskins will be flat after losing to Dallas and then traveling across the country.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Late action on the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 64% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 11-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Seahawks are 14-4 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Redskins 17
Seahawks -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 23, Seahawks 17

New England Patriots (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Patriots -3.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

Once again, these comments are all from some user named Migelini, who might just be the dumbest person alive:

1. “both teems gong grate. witch meets in supergame. any idee. i theink both. but i theink seahawks are beest teem. look at whut we did. we make all ways come baks. tarvis and marchel who is runny guy make grate combo. we may go to supergame. just mabe”

Man, with gongs, witches and grates, football is more complicated than ever. No wonder my picks suck.

2. “i no i no i m on raders and bruncos play game site but frend told me to come on heer”

I think it’s clear that Migelini has escaped from a mental hospital – because no one sane would be “frends” with a brain-dead fool like him.

3. “i no ino tee bow is good but if you choos eng beest thrower you choose eng tee bow or tarvis or whithart or raders thrower.”

I’m kind of sad that Migelini doesn’t know the name of the “Raders thrower,” because I’d like to see him screw up Carson Palmer’s name. Perhaps he would have gone with “carton pam air.”

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Perhaps Migelini should have “choose eng” Vince Young because the former Titan quarterback had an impressive touchdown drive in which he converted six third downs to eventually beat the Giants. So, if the Eagles have to go with Young again, they obviously won’t be in trouble or anything.

QB Dog Killer’s status is currently unknown. My best guess is that he won’t play, but that’s purely speculation. Regardless of who’s under center, the Eagles will have success moving the chains against a battered defense that made Tyler Palko look functional until he started making dumb mistakes in the second half.

I think Philadelphia will be able to score and keep up with New England as long as Andy Reid doesn’t start doing stupid things. Reid gave LeSean McCoy 23 carries against the Giants. That number needs to remain about the same in this contest.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Eagles have been abysmal against the run all year, so it was really surprising to see them completely shut down Brandon Jacobs on Sunday night. I picked Philadelphia to cover, but I thought Jacobs would cause some problems. Apparently not.

I’m not going to say I’m sold on the Eagles’ improved ground defense after one week, but it doesn’t really matter because the Patriots don’t run the ball well anyway. Until Kansas City’s defense really wore down in the second half Monday night, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was getting exactly three rushing yards on every single carry.

Philadelphia is still really weak against tight ends, however, which is obviously a major problem that the defense will have to overcome. Rob Gronkowski is a monster, and Aaron Hernandez isn’t exactly chopped liver either. Tom Brady should have numerous successful drives Sunday evening.

RECAP: I really like the Eagles in the role of an underdog. Reid’s teams always play well when the chips are down, as we saw Sunday night. I’d feel uncomfortable betting heavily against Brady, but I think Philadelphia has a strong chance of pulling the upset.

LINE POSTED: I liked the Eagles earlier in the week, but the Nnamdi Asomugha injury changes everything. Asomugha getting hurt this late in the week completely throws off Philadelphia’s game plan. I don’t think the Eagles will have enough time to adjust for one of the top passing attacks in the NFL.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

Once again, this is do-or-die for the Eagles, who always play well when the chips are down.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The public is betting the Patriots like there’s no tomorrow.

Percentage of money on New England: 85% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Monday Magic: Teams coming off MNF wins of 17+ are 40-23 ATS since 1999.

Patriots are 26-15 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 128-43 as a starter (100-67 ATS).

Eagles are 14-23 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Eagles 20
Patriots -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 38, Eagles 20

Denver Broncos (5-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)
Line: Chargers by 5.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Chargers -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Chargers -3.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I’ve been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter. The past few weeks, I listed comments that a chick named Kimbrkitty received.

Here’s someone else. Her name is Emilysh, and she actually e-mails me from time to time. Here’s her profile picture:

I asked her if I could post the pervy comments sent to her, and she said yes. Here they are:

1. “hello <3"

Aww… he made a heart for Emily. How sweet. I don’t know how Emily can possibly resist going after him.

2. “HI Can I Talk to you if you do not minD IF YOU ARE THERE AND IF YOU ARE NOT BUSY PLEASE emilysh”

Perhaps capitalizing your entire sentence would have convinced her to talk to you. Sorry bud, you’re out of luck.

3. “WHY WONT YOU ANSWER ME…?”

See what I mean? There’s a man who knows how to beg for a woman. Notice the dot-dot-dot-question mark at the end of the sentence? That’ll have Emily yearning for more. What else does he have to say? Will the rest of his words be capitalized as well? If Emily doesn’t at least want to meet up with this guy, then I know nothing about women.

DENVER OFFENSE: Tim Tebow has enjoyed success against this San Diego defense. He nearly led a furious comeback in Week 5 when Kyle Orton was benched at halftime. Of course, the Chargers just had to kick a front-door field goal to cover the spread. FML.

San Diego will be more prepared for Tebow than the Jets were, but I don’t know if that’ll mean too much. The run defense is crap, as the unit is two weeks removed from surrendering 199 rushing yards to the Raiders.

The success of the ground attack will open things up aerially for Tebow. He’ll throw some ugly incompletions, but he’ll also be able to hook up with his receivers for some long gains, as he’s done every week. That’s just something that most of the biased former players like to ignore.

The Chargers have major issues in their secondary, so this could be the game that Tebow breaks out passing-wise. Remember, he threw for 320 yards in a contest last year, so it’s not like he can’t do it.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I went on a long rant about Philip Rivers in my NFL Game Recaps page. If you don’t feel like clicking the link, I basically bashed him for continuously throwing into double coverage, making dumb decisions and not taking enough of blame for his team’s struggles. Norv Turner is a clueless head coach, but Rivers is nearly as responsible for his team’s underachievement (at least this year).

Rivers had a good performance against at Denver in Week 5, going 18-of-29 for 250 yards, one touchdown and an interception, but the Bronco defense has really improved since. Von Miller is one of the most dominant players in football, and he and Elvis Dumervil will wreak havoc upon Rivers and his patchwork offensive line.

The Chargers won’t have much success on the ground either. Since their bye, the Broncos have limited the opposition to just 3.9 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10 of that category.

RECAP: When I saw this spread, I immediately thought, “Ah crap, this looks like a Vegas trap of some sort. Why do they want so much action on the Broncos?”

Oddly enough though, there’s an equal amount of money on both sides. That’s fine by me. If people want to continue to be stubborn and not realize what’s going on with Tebow, that’s their problem.

The Broncos are the better team, so I’m going to take the ridiculous amount of points that Vegas is offering.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 54% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Chargers 17
Broncos +5.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 16, Chargers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6)
Line: Steelers by 10.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Steelers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Steelers -9.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: That’s kind of an oxymoron. The Chiefs have scored a grand total of 16 points in their previous three games. As Ron Jaworski said about 20 times during the New England game, Kansas City can’t finish drives. And that shouldn’t be a surprise given the crap it has at the quarterback position.

Tyler Palko looked functional against the Patriots until the second half when he started making dumb mistakes. That was against a New England defense, however, that is 25th against the pass (7.9 YPA). The Steelers are first with a 5.9 YPA.

If the Chiefs couldn’t get more than a field goal at New England, how the hell are they going to do anything against Pittsburgh’s stop unit?

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The concern for the Steelers is Ben Roethlisberger’s fractured thumb. He’ll play, but he’ll just be taking snaps out of the shotgun.

I’d ordinarily panic and really downgrade Pittsburgh’s chances of scoring on the Chiefs, but Roethlisberger always seems to overcome injuries. Hell, Big Ben will probably throw for 350 yards or something. We’ve been through this song and dance before.

The Chiefs are just outmatched. They rank 28th versus the pass (7.99 YPA), while the Steelers have way too many weapons for them to handle. The run, defense, meanwhile, has surrendered 4.8 YPC since the Week 6 bye, so Rashard Mendenhall should have a solid outing.

RECAP: As if the talent disparity wasn’t enough, the Chiefs have some angles going against them:

For instance, teams coming off Monday night losses of 17-plus are 17-37 against the spread since 1999. On a related note, teams are 12-27 ATS at home following a Monday Night Football road defeat of double digits since 2002.

Also, I mentioned this earlier: Road favorites coming off a bye are an amazing 33-10 against the spread since 2002. Teams laying points on the road tend to be really good teams, so it’s only natural that they’re very focused following a week off.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

No surprise that people are fading Tyler Palko.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 87% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 17-37 ATS since 1999.

Mike Tomlin is 4-1 ATS after a bye.

Steelers are 2-9 ATS on the road as favorites of -5 or more since 2006.

Chiefs are 10-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Chiefs are 13-24 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -10.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Chiefs 10
Steelers -10.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 13, Chiefs 9

New York Giants (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-3)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 51.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Saints -3.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Saints -4.

Monday, Nov. 28, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New Orleans, home of the Saints. Guys, I don’t want to talk about this stupid game. I want to talk about Tim Tebow. How magical was he in that win over the Jets? Guys, I say that if Tebow leads the Broncos to the Super Bowl, everyone should be forced to convert to Christianity. What say you, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Mike, it is wrong to force religious believe down people’s neck, no matter who or what win the Super Bowl championship. We live in the country of the United States of American, where everyone have the right to choose their own religiousness.

Reilly: But Emmitt, it’s Tim Tebow! I don’t see what’s wrong with forcing everyone into becoming a Christian.

Herm: It’s wrong! Not good! Bad! Very bad! Bad idea! Bad thoughts! Can’t force religion! Can’t do it! Just can’t do it! Don’t want to do it! Don’t want to go there! Can’t go there! Wrong to go there! Very wrong! Very… uhh…

Reilly: Of course you’d say that, idiot Herm, because you worship Satan! Get out of my booth!

Tollefson: I agree with Herm, actually. Tim Tebow’s not that special. Everyone wants to criticize him about his inaccuracy, but that’s not the main issue here. I read somewhere that Tim Tebow is a virgin. I don’t know how this is possible. He’s a quarterback. He should have women lining up to clean his kitchen, cook him dinner and then have sex with him, since that’s all women are good for.

Reilly: Stop saying bad things about my Tim Tebow!

Millen: I agree with Herm and Don, Mike. I don’t like Tim Tebow very much. And here’s what I mean by not liking him very much. I think a great bonding moment for two men is when one man undresses the other man, unwraps the kielbasa from the fridge and shoves it up his rear end. I asked Tim to meet me at the hotel after his win over the Jets, but all he said was, “I’m sorry sir, I want to wait until marriage to shove some kielbasa up another man’s rear end.” Seriously, what kind of monster is Tim Tebow? If he doesn’t want to bond over some long kielbasa, who knows what other terrible things he’s capable of?

Reilly: Stop it, guys! You’re all idiots for not worshipping him! I want my Eagles to trade for him. Can my Eagles give the Broncos Michael Vick and a first-round pick for Tebow, or do we need to give more?

Emmitt: Mike, I think the Bronco would make that trade with flying colors.

Reilly: Ha! My Eagles are getting Tebow! I’m going to order an Eagles Tebow jersey right now. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints were sacked six times at St. Louis in Week 8. It was really mind-boggling to see something like that because Drew Brees seldom is brought down behind the line of scrimmage. Sure enough, New Orleans shored up its pass protection issues, as Brees didn’t take a single sack in his previous two games.

This is key because the Giants are tied for the NFL lead with 31 sacks. If the Saints can keep the pocket relatively clean, Brees will be able to torch a beleaguered New York secondary ranked 20th against the pass (7.5 YPA).

The Giants, as you may know, are very weak against the run. It’s a good thing for them that the Saints don’t rush the ball extremely well. However, Brees utilizes the short passing game with Darren Sproles as a pseudo ground attack, so I wouldn’t read too much into this apparent matchup edge for New York.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Saints are even worse against the run. In fact, they rank last in the department, yielding 5.4 YPC to opposing backs. Brandon Jacobs, expected to draw the start again, figures to rebound off a poor performance against the Eagles.

If the Giants can get Jacobs going, that’ll open things up for Eli Manning, who has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. The Saints are decent against the pass (9th; 6.2 YPA), but I wouldn’t expect them to slow down New York’s aerial attack either.

Another thing New Orleans doesn’t do well defensively is get to the quarterback. Excluding a Week 8 outing against the pathetic Rams, the Saints have just four sacks in their previous five games. That has to be music to Manning’s ears after he took three sacks against the Eagles on Sunday night.

RECAP: I don’t want to bet against the Saints because non-divisional home favorites are 42-24 against the spread coming off a bye. However, I don’t want to go against the Giants either because they play well on the road, and this spread seems way too large.

I’m going to side with the host, but I’ve flip-flopped so many times deciding on a winner in this game that I can’t recommend betting it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 59% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 30-16 ATS on the road since 2006.

Saints are 35-48 ATS at home since 2001 (18-12 since 2008).

Saints are 27-37 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Giants 17
Saints -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 49, Giants 24

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Packers at Lions, Dolphins at Cowboys, 49ers at Ravens, Panthers at Colts, Buccaneers at Titans, Texans at Jaguars, Browns at Bengals, Vikings at Falcons, Bills at Jets, Cardinals at Rams

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Cowboys -1, Bengals -1 (2 Units) — Push; $0

Moneyline Underdog: Broncos +200 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)