NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2023: Late Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Line: 49ers by 13.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It turns out the 49ers are better when they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field. Samuel and Williams missed time prior to the bye, while McCaffrey looked like he wasn’t quite 100 percent after getting hurt versus Cleveland. San Francisco’s offense sputtered as a result.

All three were back in action against the Jaguars, and the results were terrific. The 49ers scored 34 points and nearly added seven more at the end when they were trying to force a touchdown to McCaffrey to keep his streak going. McCaffrey’s touchdown run may have been in jeopardy in this game anyhow, given that the Buccaneers are pretty stout versus the run.

However, the Buccaneers are abysmal when it comes to the pass. They recently allowed record-breaking numbers to C.J. Stroud, so I’m expecting some fireworks from Brock Purdy. The Buccaneers can’t stop opposing receivers whatsoever, while opposing tight ends have torched them as well. Despite what we saw last week, the Buccaneers usually don’t apply much pressure on the quarterback unless they blitz. This rattled Will Levis last week, but it won’t bother Purdy, who has thrown eight touchdowns and only one interception into the blitz this year. Thus, Purdy should have no issues connecting with Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I thought there was a chance the Jaguars could keep pace with the 49ers last week because San Francisco has been weaker to outside receivers. Calvin Ridley projected to have a great game, but that never transpired.

Something that changed was that the 49ers acquired Chase Young. The former Redskin was able to log a sack across from Nick Bosa. With these two dynamic edge rushers terrorizing opposing quarterbacks, it’s going to be difficult for quarterbacks to succeed against them unless they’re very well protected. This is not true for Baker Mayfield, who has a sub par blocking unit in front of him. Mayfield will be under pressure all afternoon, which will make it difficult for him to consistently connect with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Mayfield will have to do it all because Rachaad White won’t get anything on the ground. The 49ers have a stellar run defense that will limit White as a rusher. Only two teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to opposing running backs this year.

RECAP: We’ve already touched on the Lions and Cowboys. This is the third team this week that’s favored by a large margin with a Thanksgiving game four days after this contest. The 49ers will be battling the Seahawks in a contest where the winner will have a firm grasp on the NFC West.

However, I think that of all three teams, the 49ers are least likely to look ahead. I could be way off because San Francisco has an important game on the horizon and isn’t used to being a host on Thanksgiving, but the 49ers are coming off a very recent three-game losing streak. They’ve dropped three of their previous four. I think they want to get back on track, so I could see them being focused against the Buccaneers. I could be way off because motivational angles are difficult to decipher, but this seems like a situation where San Francisco will give it its all.

If that happens, the woeful Buccaneers won’t stand a chance. Tampa has gotten blown out against every top-tier opponent it has battled this year, losing by multiple touchdowns to the Eagles and Lions. I expect something similar in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got scared a bit when I saw that Trent Williams missed Wednesday’s practice, but that was just for rest purposes. Nevertheless, the sharps have been pounding the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing on the injury report that will deter me from betting the 49ers heavily. The only negative in favor of San Francisco is all the sharp action on the Buccaneers. It sucks to go against the pros, but I think the 49ers are the right side.

PLAYER PROPS: George Kittle has eclipsed the receiving yards prop number in four of his previous five games, and he’s not blocking as much with Trent Williams back in the lineup. The Buccaneers are poor versus tight ends. The best number is over 41.5 -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The spread continues to be steamed up to -13.5. It might be smart to lock in the 49ers now. There’s nothing better than -13.5 -110 at most sportsbooks, unfortunately.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out that locking in the 49ers wasn’t necessary. The best line is -13.5 -108 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
Line: Rams by 2. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s not totally clear if Matthew Stafford will be able to play, but things are optimistic in that regard. Sean McVay said that he’s expecting Stafford to return this week, as Stafford has been able to throw and grip the ball. This all sounds great, but it’s not a guarantee that Stafford will be 100 percent. Stafford has a history of playing through injuries, which is admirable, but also unappealing from a betting perspective.

If Stafford is healthy, the Rams shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains on the Seahawks. Seattle has some talented defensive backs, but they struggle to defend the slot. This is obviously horrible news for a matchup against Cooper Kupp. Stafford will also have improved protection with Rob Havenstein due back from injury as well.

The Rams figure to have success with their running backs as well. Seattle is in the bottom half of surrendering rushing yards, and we just saw both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson pick up chunks of yards as receivers out of the backfield. Perhaps Darrell Henderson will be able to do something similar.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith is not the same quarterback who won Comeback Player of the Year last season. He’s had some bright moments, but he’s made a number of mistakes. This should be a situation in which Smith has a great performance against a soft Rams defense, but based on some of Smith’s outputs earlier in the season, we can’t really say that for certain.

It was rather telling that Smith struggled to move the ball for most of the afternoon last week. He caught fire at the end, but for the most part, he was extremely disappointing, given that he was battling a miserable defense that was recently worsened by the trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat. If Smith was inconsistent in that situation, how can we expect him to dominate this week?

Smith, at least, should be able to capitalize on his running game. The Rams are in the top 10 of rushing yards allowed this year, so Kenneth Walker will be able to play better than he did last week.

RECAP: This seems to be a difficult game to handicap. The Rams initially seemed like the sure side. The Seahawks have struggled lately on both sides of the ball, and this is a matchup that Los Angeles has dominated in recent years, including a blowout victory in Seattle back in Week 1. Also, Seattle could be caught looking ahead with a Thanksgiving game versus the 49ers just four days after this contest.

So, why is this a tough game to handicap? Because of Stafford’s thumb injury. Backing an injured quarterback is one of the least-appealing things you can do when betting football. We’ve seen Stafford try to play through injuries in the past – including issues with his fingers – and it hasn’t been pretty. I need to see Stafford perform at 100 percent before I can confidently back him with my money.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford practiced fully on Wednesday, which would be a good sign if injury reports were truthful. Unfortunately, we won’t know how he’ll perform until we actually see him in action.

SATURDAY NOTES: Man, I really want to bet the Rams heavily. Matthew Stafford and Rob Havenstein are not on the injury report. The Seahawks, who are overrated, may not have Tyler Lockett and Abraham Lucas. The Rams have also owned this rivalry. However, I just don’t know if Stafford’s thumb is OK. I may bet lightly on the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here because Matthew Stafford’s thumb is such a question mark.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I worry too much about Matthew Stafford’s thumb, so I won’t be betting this game unless we get a glowing report in the pre-game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ian Rapoport said that Matthew Stafford will play without limitations, but I’m not sure what that means. I don’t think I can bet the Rams without knowing Stafford’s health. The sharps have a lean on the Rams, but nothing crazy. If you want to bet the Rams, -2 -108 is available at Bookmaker.

New York Jets (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Line: Bills by 8.5. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: My theory behind the Bills’ performance on Monday night was that they were mentally preparing for this week. Buffalo lost to Denver because of four turnovers and a costly penalty for having 12 men on the field for Wil Lutz’s missed field goal. The Bills outgained the Broncos in net yards and yards per play, but they ultimately lost because of all their blunders.

I say they were preparing for the Jets because they often make these mistakes versus New York, so they were getting their fans geared up for more turnovers, which is what we saw in Week 1. Besides, the Jets have a terrific defense that is No. 1 in pressure rate and covers extremely well. We just saw the Broncos blank Stefon Diggs, so the Jets secondary should be able to do the same.

However, there’s a slight chance for offensive success, and that would come with James Cook. The Bills finally unleashed Cook following his temporary benching last week, and he responded with a 100-yard game. The Jets funnel to the run, so perhaps Cook could have some big gains.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson is the worst quarterback making a start this week, aside from Tommy DeVito. Somehow, through 10 weeks, Wilson has yet to record a game in which he’s had a positive EPA. He has ruined so many great defensive performances, you’d think the Jets would have already made the move to another quarterback.

Fortunately for Wilson, his team has a strong matchup edge versus the Bills. This includes the Breece Hall-led rushing attack. Hall had a huge carry versus the Bills the first time, and now he’s not on a snap count. He could explode once again versus a Buffalo run defense that sorely misses both Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones.

The Bills also have problems in the secondary. This area is far less advantageous for the Jets because of how Zach Wilson has been. However, Garrett Wilson is a stellar player, so he’ll accumulate plenty of yardage, much like he did versus the Raiders last week.

RECAP: Divisional rivalries can sometimes produce weird results. In this instance, the Jets have had the Bills’ number. That isn’t too shocking now, but the Jets still had their way versus Buffalo in two matchups last year. Why wouldn’t this continue?

Besides, it’s not like the Bills are a good team that can stop their tailspin. Their defense ranks at the very bottom of the NFL in EPA. The offense, meanwhile, has sputtered because Josh Allen doesn’t appear to be healthy. Allen isn’t scrambling either, which has to make his opponents very happy.

We bet five units against the Bills on Monday night, and we’ll do the same thing in this instance. I know this means we’re backing Zach Wilson again, which sucks. The Jets have dropped two in a row because of Wilson’s incompetence. However, the Jets covered four in a row before that, so I don’t know why they can’t go back to their winning ways in a favorable matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to do research on how teams have performed after firing an offensive or defensive coordinator. I’ll have the results on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: As promised, here’s research on how teams have done after firing a coordinator. I only have data going back to 2015:

2021: Panthers fire OC Joe Brady – Loss SU, Loss ATS (-2.5)
2021: Giants fire OC Jason Garrett – Win SU, Win ATS (+4)
2020: Raiders fire DC Paul Guenther – Loss SU, Loss ATS (-3)
2020: Jets fire DC Gregg Williams – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+16.5)
2019: Chargers fire OC Ken Whisenhunt – Win SU, Win ATS (+3.5)
2018: Vikings fire OC John DeFilippo – Win SU, Win ATS (-8)
2018: Jaguars fire OC Nathaniel Hackett – Win SU, Win ATS (+3)
2018: Bengals fire DC Teryl Austin – Loss SU, Win ATS (+6)
2018: Cardinals fire OC Mike McCoy – Win SU, Win ATS (+1.5)
2018: Buccaneers fire DC Mike Smith – Win SU, Loss ATS (-3.5)
2017: Raiders fire DC Ken Norton Jr. – Win SU, Win ATS (-4)
2017: Broncos fire OC Mike McCoy – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+4)
2017: Bengals fire OC Ken Zampese – Loss SU, Win ATS (+7.5)
2016: Vikings fire OC Norv Turner – Loss SU, Loss ATS (-5.5)
2016: Jaguars fire OC Greg Olson – Loss SU, Win ATS (+7)
2016: Ravens fire OC Marc Trestman – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+3.5)
2016: Bills fire OC Greg Roman – Win SU, Win ATS (+4)
2015: Lions fire OC Joe Lombardi – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+4.5)
—–
Overall: 8-10 SU, 10-8 ATS
Favorite: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
Underdog: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS

It seems as though underdogs keep games close most of the time, but the favorites typically don’t cover. As you can see, there’s nothing to be afraid of if you like the Jets.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Breece Hall in this game. I think he’ll hit the over rushing yards, as Buffalo is in the top 10 of rushing yards allowed to running backs. I also think the receiving yardage over is a good bet as well. Hall has gone over 23.5 receiving yards in three of the five games he’s played since his restriction was lifted, and Buffalo has allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs this year. The best bet for the latter is at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t know what to make of this line movement. There was sharp action on the Jets earlier in the week, but some other pro money has come in on Buffalo, which is worrying after what happened last week with the Buccaneers being steamed up similarly. Maybe someone is just fading my top plays.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Whatever caused that line movement on Sunday morning stopped. The sharps are mostly on the Jets. The best line is +8.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

Minnesota Viking (6-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5)
Line: Broncos by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Josh Dobbs might single-handedly get general managers fired. Teams with injured quarterbacks – cough, Jets – had a chance to make a move to counter the Aaron Rodgers injury. Trading for Dobbs was a viable option, yet the Jets just sat on their hands. Conversely, he Vikings pulled the trigger on Dobbs, and it has worked masterfully thus far. Despite not fully integrated into the offense, Dobbs is 2-0 with his new team.

Dobbs will face a tough challenge against an improving Denver defense. The Broncos famously lost 70-20 to the Dolphins earlier in the year, but thanks to some players returning from injury, as well as communication issues being fixed, they’ve improved markedly on the defensive side of the ball. They can cover very well, as we just saw Monday night with Stefon Diggs being limited to three catches, so the Broncos will be able to restrict the Minnesota receivers as well. This includes Justin Jefferson, who could make his return this week.

There are ways the Vikings can attack the Broncos, however. Denver is very weak to the run, so Ty Chandler, replacing Alexander Mattison, will have a chance to establish himself as the new starter. The Broncos also can be beaten with tight ends, which is obviously an area in which T.J. Hockenson will shine.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos will also try to win on the ground. Javonte Williams’ ACL-related restrictions have been lifted. This was a positive versus the Bills, but it may not matter in this matchup. The Vikings have been stellar versus the rush, so they’ll be able to contain Williams.

Russell Wilson will have to carry the team in this contest, which is problematic based on how the Vikings operate. With Brian Flores, Minnesota blitzes more than any other team in the NFL. Wilson sucks against the blitz. All of his stats are way down when he’s blitzed. His turnover-worthy play percentage more than doubles!

If the Vikings didn’t blitz so much, the Broncos might have a chance. There are some holes in the Minnesota secondary that can be exploited, especially when it comes to defending slot receivers. Jerry Jeudy could benefit from this, but overall, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Broncos.

RECAP: Let’s keep on riding the Dobbs train until it derails. It seems as though the Vikings match up well against the Broncos. Also, Denver could be tired in this scheduling spot. They played on the East Coast on a Monday night and then flew back across the country to play a game on one fewer day of rest. This is the same situation the Chargers and Jets were in last week, and they both lost.

I’m not as crazy about this game without getting any key numbers on either side, but I think the Vikings are the better team and the correct side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Broncos, but not a lot. This could always be phantom movement to get a better number on Minnesota.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still waiting on Justin Jefferson news. He’s listed as questionable after being limited all week.

PLAYER PROPS: What is this receiving yards prop with T.J. Hockenson? It’s somehow only 54.5 even though he’s gone over that number in his previous four games. The Broncos have allowed the most yardage to tight ends this year, and Justin Jefferson won’t be back to steal targets. The best number is over 54.5 -114 at FanDuel. I’m also betting Hockenson to score the first touchdown, with the best number also being at FanDuel (+1300). You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We might see +3 by kickoff because there’s a lot of sharp action on the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Missing the 49ers cover by half a point is so tilting. Anyway, the sharps are on the Broncos. I’m not seeing a viable +3, unfortunately. The best line is +2.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Monday, Nov. 20, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, which makes no sense because we’re in the state of Missouri. Tonight, the Kansas City Royals take on my Philadelphia Eagles. Guys, it’s time for my Philadelphia Eagles to dominate, especially against that fraud Andy Reid. He’s a total fraud because he doesn’t deserve any Super Bowls, and the Super Bowls he won should go to my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m so mad about this that I thought about pausing the search for my famous singer girlfriend, but Mother said she hopes I bring my new singer girlfriend to Thanksgiving instead of my usual Nick Foles bobblehead that sits beside me at the table.

Emmitt: Thanks, Ultros. I ignore your commentmemory about the Nick Folds bubble head because you make me really confusion. I take geology class in the University of Florida State College University State, and I never heard that the city of Kansas City can’t not be in the state of Kansas City. And I work real hard in that class. The teacher gived us a lot of map and we color in stuff with crayon. When I color the ocean blue, teacher say I do great job and give me the alphabet A.

Reilly: Emmitt, you’re lucky your college classes are so easy. Mother gives impossible tests to me where I have to answer questions like, “Who is Mother’s eighth-favorite character on Matlock?” But I digress. I have the latest lady who is going to beg to be my girlfriend so I can show up Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, and also the ladies at Mother’s hair salon who don’t think I can date someone as hot as Taylor Swift. The sheet says the next girl is Pink. Pink what? I don’t like the color pink because I’m a man.

Pink: That’s my name, love. I’m Pink, and it’s great to meet everyone here. Which one of these fine gentlemen here will be the Travis to my Taylor? This question from me is brought to you by Pfizer. Pfizer, inject our highly vaccines into your body with any repercussions for us because we have government protection.

Tollefson: Excuse me, sir, we are expecting a woman to interview for Reilly. Please move aside so I can kidnap and enslave the woman if she doesn’t please my friend.

Reilly: Tolly, this is the woman. She may have the haircut of a 12-year-old boy, but she’s definitely a woman. I know this because I spied on her in the bathroom.

Pink: Hey, what I do in the bathroom is my business, and my business only! When I’m in the bathroom, I like to inject the Pfizer covid vaccine into my vajayjay. This latest statement is brought to you by Pfizer. Pfizer, trust us, our vaccines are totally safe. If they weren’t, do you think we’d be advertising so much?

Adam Schefter: Kevin, we have breaking news. I think I’m in love, Kevin. I, too, insert covid vaccines into my vajayjay. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Guys, what is a vajayjay? Is that one of those bad words Mother says I am too young to hear? Tell me what it means, John Festerman!

John Fetterman: Happy Thanksgiving this Valentine’s Day! This reminds me of the rabbit and the hare. Who won the race? Dale Earnhardt. Down to the crypts we go. Find the man with the name spelled backwards. Backwards is forwards but only backwards. And sometimes sideways.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Pink, I don’t know what a vajayjay is, but I’d like to share it with you as long as Mother watches and says it’s OK.

Pink: Are you being serious right now about your Mother watching? Because I could be into that. This kinky comment was brought to you by Pfizer. Pfizer, we can cure everything, and you won’t get a heart attack, we swear, teehee!

Reilly: OK, Mother might really like you if she can watch us share your vajayjay. President Bident, have you ever let your mother watch you and your girlfriend share your vajayjay?

Joe Biden: Now look here, you clock-punching, camel-grabbing cookie face, I can do more pushups than you in your sleep, so the next time you challenge me to a physical fitness test, make sure you know who you’re talking to, Fat. But the thing is the mother, the mother can’t watch what you do with the daughter especially when you invite her in the shower by telling her ice cream there and there’s no ice cream shop in the shower even though everyone would like choco-choco chip ice cream in the ice cream shop heh heh heh I grew up in a Mexican ice cream shop and they called me Mexican Ice Cream Joe because I was a hard worker working in the mines and the canary in the coal mine. He told me that the roaches are filling up the mine, so I says to just jam the peppercorn in the uh, the you know the thing.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he grew up in a Mexican ice cream shop which is a total disgrace and a total disaster because the Mexican ice cream shops don’t send their best, and watch, look at all the lights from the cameras, watch they’ll all turn off when I say that the Mexican ice cream shops have some great people, and I love Mexicans, and the Mexicans, they love me, how can they not love me, because I love them, and we love each other, but the Mexican ice cream shops don’t always have the best employees, they have some rapists and murderers, and those rapists and murderers all come here to the American ice cream shops, not the good people who love me, but the criminals, now look, the cameras just turned on, the mainstream crooked media is going to say, “Trump thinks all Mexican ice cream shop employees are rapists and murderers,” because the corrupt mainstream media is the enemy of the American people, the opposite of me, who is the only one who will stand up for you, unlike Sleepy Joe, who is a total disgrace and a total disaster.

Wolfley: DONALD, I COMPLETELY AGREE. I HAD A SIMILAR EXPERIENCE WITH THE EPSILON MU ICE CREAM SHOP ONLY SENDING POGO STICKS WITH BEANSTALKS FOR LEGS.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Pink is about to be my girlfriend, and Mother will finally have revenge on the women at the hair salon who doubted us. So, Pink, do you want to make it official that you’re my girlfriend?

Pink: That sounds lovely. Perhaps on my first date we’ll have a picnic where we’ll inject each other with more covid vaccine booster shots. This first date will be brought to you by Pfizer. Pfizer, if you don’t get our injections, you’ll lose your job!

Reilly: Wait a second, Mother has forbade me from getting any vaccines because they are the devil. I’m sorry, Pink, but I’ll have to pass on being your boyfriend. New Daddy, do you want to go on a picnic with me instead?

Jay Cutler: No.

Reilly: Oh well. Looks like Pink is out, but at least I still have my Philadelphia Eagles.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing colors, Kevin, but as you can probably see, I haven’t really been paying attention, so maybe you aren’t talking about colors, Kevin, so let’s pretend you are, Kevin. Let’s touch on red, Kevin. How about green, Kevin? What about yellow, Kevin? What are your thoughts on blue, Kevin? We can also get your take on purple, Kevin. Let’s have a chat about brown, Kevin. Speaking of brown, Kevin, poop is brown, Kevin, and you remind me of poop, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, IF YOU CALL ME POOP ONE MORE TIME, I’LL POOP IN MY PANTS AND THEN COVER YOUR HEAD WITH MY UNDERWEAR SO YOU’LL KNOW HOW IT FEELS TO CALL ME POOP! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Don’t tell Kevin Reilly this, but the Eagles are going to have trouble stopping the Chiefs offense. That sounds like a daunting task for most teams, but Kansas City hasn’t been as sharp on this side of the ball lately. They mustered only nine points against the Broncos recently, while their game against the Dolphins saw them score a quick touchdown, but barely do anything the rest of the way.

The Eagles defense has been especially poor, ranking in the 20s in EPA. They’re terrible against the pass, especially against slot receivers and tight ends. These are the two areas the Chiefs utilize. The latter is obvious, as Travis Kelce will rebound from his dud performance. As for the slot position, that’s occupied by Rashee Rice, who has been Kansas City’s top wide receiver.

The only edge the Eagles have on this side of the ball is via the ground game. They have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so Isiah Pacheco won’t get anything on the ground. This could also mean that the Chiefs will struggle to nurse a lead, should they establish one.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles won’t be able to stop the Chiefs, so they’ll need to outscore them in a shootout. Their offense is terrific, but this is not the same sort of positive matchup that Philadelphia would have enjoyed in the past.

Kansas City used to have a mediocre or worse defense, but times have changed. The Chiefs now possess a top-10 defense. They specialize in rushing the passer, ranking second in pressure rate. They blitz a lot, which is bad news for Jalen Hurts, whose touchdown-to-interception ration is just 7:5 compared to 8:3 when he’s not blitzed.

The Chiefs aren’t completely great on this side of the ball, as they’ve allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs this year. The Eagles should have success running with D’Andre Swift, provided they don’t fall behind too early.

RECAP: Both the Chiefs and Eagles are coming off byes, but not all byes are created equal. Andy Reid is infamous for thriving with extra time to prepare. He’s 18-10 against the spread off a bye in his career. Then again, Nick Sirianni is 2-0 against the spread in the same situation, so perhaps we’ll be talking about him as a master with extra preparation in the future.

The Chiefs are also the better team in this matchup. Both offenses are terrific, but there’s a stark difference between the defenses. Kansas City has a top-10 stop unit, while Philadelphia is ranked in the 20s. That will be the difference in this game, as Kansas City is likely to prevail. Given that, as well as the spread moving in their way, the Chiefs look appealing as a potential mid-sized wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game early in the week. I can’t say I’m too surprised by that.

SATURDAY NOTES: The line has gone to -2.5 -120 in many sportsbooks, so there’s a chance that this line will go back to -3 sometime soon.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It might be smart to lock in the Chiefs now before the line moves. The best number is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. I’m going to lock that in now because this spread could move to -3.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I’m glad I locked in the Chiefs yesterday because the -2.5 -108 is gone. The best number I see is -2.5 -115, which you can find at numerous sportsbooks, including Bookmaker, PointsBet, and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: Rashee Rice’s receiving yardage prop is just 43.5. He’s gone over that figure in three of his previous four games. He’ll be going up against a Philadelphia defense that has surrendered the most fantasy points to slot receivers this season. The best vig for this prop is -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

Also, I built a same-game parlay that goes like this: Chiefs moneyline, Travis Kelce to score an anytime touchdown, Rashee Rice over 43.5 receiving yards, Isiah Pacheco under 49.5 rushing yards, and D’Andre Swift over 57.5 rushing yards. I’m betting 0.25 units to win 5.75. This was done on DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Most of the Chiefs -2.5 -115s have disappeared, but you can still find that line at FanDuel and BetMGM. The sharps have been on both sides of this game.