Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 16, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Lions 32, 49ers 17
Matthew Stafford has gone from horrible fantasy failure to a positive fantasy friend over the second half of the season. He probably didn’t lead your team to fantasy greatness, but he has been often streamable from Week 6 on. Against the 49ers, Stafford completed 29-of-37 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 21 fantasy points and his fifth week in a row with two or more touchdown passes. He’ll face a Bears team in the season finale that he tossed four touchdowns against in Week 6.

Calvin Johnson retook the No. 1-receiver stats from Golden Tate this week, as he caught 6-of-10 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Over his previous two games, Johnson had caught two passes for 35 yards. His ankle had been bothering him, and he was mostly being used as a decoy to keep teams from focusing on Tate.

Blaine Gabbert completed 22-of-33 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns, with both touchdowns coming in the first half. He has shown flashes of ability after taking over for Colin Kaepernick in Week 9, but he hasn’t been able sustain those flashes. Gabbert isn’t the answer as a starting quarterback in the NFL, let alone for your fantasy teams.

Vance McDonald was the only non-Gabbert who hit double-digit fantasy points for the 49ers, as he caught 5-of-7 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. While healthy, he has shown a good rapport with Gabbert despite a horrid Week 15.

Chiefs 17, Browns 13
Alex Smith threw for whopping 125 yards in Kansas City’s win over Cleveland on Sunday. He completed 15-of-22 passes – two for touchdowns – and rushed for 54 yards, leading the Chiefs to their ninth straight win after starting the season 1-5. Smith has a low ceiling for fantasy, but with his rushing yards each week, his floor has been raised considerably.

The duo of Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin remain the two best and most-targeted targets for Smith each week. This week, they both found the end zone, which has only happened two other times this season. Maclin caught his seventh touchdown of the season on Sunday, which is a far cry from the zero wide receiver touchdowns that Kansas City managed last season.

Charcandrick West was the lead back in this one and should have had a much better game, if it weren’t for the conservative play calling of Andy Reid, who helped his team to just 14 total plays in the second half, as their defense was worn to the bone from chasing Johnny Manziel around the field.

Johnny Manziel almost ran for more yards than he passed for, with 11 carries for 108 yards and completed just 13-of-32 passes for 136 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He looked a whole lot like one Mr. Tim Tebow in this one, throwing badly off target and showing awful mechanics as a passer, but keeping his team on the field with his legs.

Isaiah Crowell rushed 16 times for 88 yards and one touchdown. He was helped by Manziel’s constant threat to run keeping Kansas City off balance, but he again showed his potential and is a solid player to trade for in dynasty.

Colts 18, Dolphins 12
Matt Hasselbeck had to leave this game with a separated shoulder, which then vaulted Clipboard Jesus himself aka Charlie Whitehurst into the game. Together, they managed to complete 17-of-29 passes for 177 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Andrew Luck could possibly return for Week 17, as the Colts have a slim chance of making the playoffs. They need him.

Indianapolis’ offense was all Frank Gore, as he totaled 95 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He hadn’t hit 85 yards rushing since Week 5 and has barely managed three yards a carry over the previous seven games. The Dolphins have given up.

Ryan Tannehill completed 26-of-38 passes for 329 yards and a horrible interception in the end zone. He also injured his ankle and reportedly had blood in his urine this week. So, that’s not good.

Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi split rushing work fairly evenly, while Miller saw all the receiving work. Miller was able to get into the end zone, but neither could do much with the offensive line in shambles. They’ll most likely split work again against the Patriots next week.

Jets 26, Patriots 20
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 26-of-41 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots on Sunday, giving him his 11th multi-touchdown game of the season. Fitzmagic has grown with this team, and they truly have come together to elevate each other. The New York faces the Buffalo Bills next week and a win will get the former into the playoffs. He’ll be a must-start in that must-win.

Brandon Marshall had his ninth 100-yard or more receiving game of the season, as he caught 8-of-10 targets for 115 yards and two touchdowns. He’s up to 13 touchdowns on the season and has nine over the last eight games. Marshall shouldn’t have much trouble against a Buffalo defense that is being beaten with regularity in the second half of the season.

Bilal Powell was out-touched by Chris Ivory 15 to 12, but Powell totaled 90 yards to Ivory’s 42. They’ll continue to split work, but Powell has show more big-play ability of late.

This was Tom Brady’s worst game of the season, as he completed 22-of-31 passes for 231 yards, one touchdown and an interception. There’s no doubt that playing a tough defense, coupled with multiple injuries to his receivers and offensive line, are the cause of Brady’s poor numbers. If he can get Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola back against the hapless Dolphins next week and they still have something to play for, I expect a big game.

James White continues to produce good fantasy numbers despite getting limited looks. He caught 5-of-5 targets for 28 yards and a touchdown, giving him six touchdowns over the last six games.

Bills 16, Cowboys 6
Tyrod Taylor completed 13-of-18 passes for 179 yards and threw an interception in the end zone. He added 67 rushing yards, but those couldn’t raise him above the mediocrity of this fantasy day as it usually does. The Bills went run heavy as the Cowboys could only muster two field goals.

Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee ran through the Cowboys’ defense effectively, and both were able to put up fantasy numbers. Williams had 19 touches for 97 yards and a touchdown, while Gillislee had 11 touches for 109 yards and a touchdown, which was yet another long one for him, as he iced the game from 50 yards out. Both backs will again see work in a tougher matchup next week against the Jets.

Sammy Watkins thankfully was the only good target Taylor had, and he caught 5-of-6 targets for 84 yards, but couldn’t get into the end zone for the first time since Week 11.

The Cowboys did very little on offense, but Darren McFadden continued to play well, despite his offense giving him little boost. He rushed for 99 yards on 19 carries, giving him 90-plus rushing yards in three straight games. He should be able to have similar results next week against Washington.

Falcons 20, Panthers 13
Matt Ryan completed 23-of-30 passes for 306 yards and one touchdown as he helped end the Panthers’ undefeated season. Amazingly, even as he had one of the best games of his season, he still managed to put up just 14 fantasy points. Ryan will finish the season high on the list for passing yardage, but probably won’t crack the Top-20 in fantasy points for quarterbacks.

Julio Jones is a bad man. He exploded against Josh Norman and the Panthers’ defense to catch 9-of-11 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown, almost single-handedly ending Carolina’s undefeated season. He gets the Saints next week.

Cam Newton completed 17-of-30 passes for 142 yards and rushed seven times for 46 yards and a touchdown. It was not a good performance, as Newton was not accurate and couldn’t sustain long drives. The Panthers still need to win their final game against Tampa Bay to secure home-field advantage over the Arizona Cardinals.

Cameron Artis-Payne looked great against the Falcons, but only touched the ball seven times. Using him more would have slowed that pass rush down and helped my fantasy teams.

Greg Olsen came up small, like all of the Panthers during Championship Week, catching just 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards.

Ravens 20, Steelers 17
Ryan Mallet scored more fantasy points than Cam Newton in your fantasy championships, as he completed 28-of-41 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. He was a “game manager,” but made few tough throws to put his team over the top on the day. His arm strength was noticeable on a few darts into tight coverage.

Javorius “Buck” Allen was the fantasy star for the Ravens as he carried the ball 18 times for 79 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 5-of-5 targets for 35 yards. He’s been a solid player in relief of Justin Forsett this season, especially since that also coincided with Joe Flacco going down for the year. Allen gets a tough matchup yet again next week against the Bengals.

Ben Roethlisberger laid a big ol’ block of coal in your fantasy stocking against Baltimore’s usually poor pass defense, completing 24-of-34 passes for 215 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. That left two fantasy studs, Martavis Bryant and Antonio Brown out in the cold as well. Big Ben was not himself and could never get going as the Ravens’ pass rush and coverages, seemed to keep him off kilter all game.

The one fantasy stud for the Steelers was DeAngelo Williams, who totaled 153 yards and two touchdowns, while adding five receptions for PPR purposes. He very much helped a lot of teams win their fantasy championships this season.

Texans 34, Titans 6
Brandon Weeden completed 15-of-24 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns, plus rushed two times for 11 yards and another touchdown. He ended up with more fantasy points than Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton combined. Exactly what you wanted if you were facing either of those quarterbacks and another reason playoffs in fantasy football are dumb. Total-points leagues are the only way to go.

DeAndre Hopkins hadn’t gone three straight games without a touchdown this season, and he still hasn’t, as he caught 7-of-11 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown, his 11th of the season. This was the season we predicted from Nuk, which rarely happens in this crazy game. He’ll get the Jaguars next week, but there is a decent chance the Texans will have their playoff spot locked up by then.

Zach Mettenberger completed 27-of-51 passes for 234 yards, one touchdown and one interception, but looked much worse than even those poor stats. He’s regressed from even his not-so-great stats of last season.

Delanie Walker saw 15 targets, but caught nine for just 59 yards. Walker is a stud, but Mettenberger is a dud.

Bears 26, Bucs 21
Jay Cutler completed 20-of-27 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown, and took on the role of game manager without Alshon Jeffery there to help him stretch the defense. Cutler has done little in fantasy since a nice stretch between Weeks 4 and 10, and hasn’t been helped by Alshon Jeffery practicing about once this season.

Jeremy Langford led the way on the ground with 19 carries for 83 yards, while Matt Forte had better efficiency before leaving the game with a back injury. Both backs lost out to Ka’Deem Carey, who caught a goal-line touchdown and ran in another goal-line touchdown. Both scores were mostly bad luck for Langford and Forte fantasy backers.

Zach Miller was the leading receiver, catching 7-of-8 targets for 69 yards. He’ll probably be the safest play against the Lions next week, unless Alshon Jeffery gets some full practices in, hah!

Jameis Winston completed 15-of-29 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. A last second, garbage-time touchdown pass to Austin Seferian-Jenkins helped Winston’s game against the Bears, but for the most part, he was uneven as usual. He has shown enough this season to give fantasy players optimism for his career.

Mike Evans can’t get out of his own way. He’s taken a step back this season and truly appears to be sophomore slumping. Evans caught 4-of-8 targets for 61 yards and missed a long touchdown pass in the process. Vincent Jackson most likely won’t be back next season, but Evans has the ability to put this poor season behind him.

Saints 38, Jaguars 27
Drew Brees completed 25-of-36 passes for 412 yards and three touchdowns with a torn plantar fascia, which sounds like a fungus of some sort, but I don’t think that’s right. Of course, Brees saves one of his best games of the year for a game in which he should be on the sidelines in a walking boot.

Brandin Cooks caught 5-of-7 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown, as he’s solidified a breakout season, despite an extremely slow start.

Tim Hightower had been out of the NFL for 23 years – or something like that – and managed to rush 27 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns while catching three passes for 47 yards against Jacksonville’s tough run defense. His chances of landing a lead-back role next season are nil, but it’s nice to see him rejuvenate his career and help out some fake football players in the process.

The Jaguars are the kings of garbage time, and getting down 21-0 midway through the second quarter put garbage time squarely in their laps. Blake Bortles completed 27-of-35 passes for 368 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions, as he tried to make up the huge deficit. He also lost a fumble, giving him 23 turnovers on the season, but he’s also up to 35 touchdown passes and 4,189 passing yards for the season. It’s been a crazy year for Bortles, but his fantasy trajectory for his career is looking great.

The two Allens – Robinson and Hurns – once again put up big numbers, with Robinson catching a 90-yard touchdown to give him 151 yards on six receptions, while Hurns caught 8-of-10 targets for 106 yards and two touchdowns. These two are another reason to be bullish on Bortles’ long-term fantasy viability.

Cardinals 38, Packers 8
Carson Palmer completed 18-of-27 passes for 265 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, and unfortunately for his fantasy backers, he didn’t need to do anymore than that, as his team’s defense tore the Packers asunder.

David Johnson continued his fantasy assault, totaling 127 yards on 12 touches and rushing for one touchdown. He’ll be the lead back from now through the playoffs, but does get a tough matchup against Seattle next week.

John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald got into the end zone, while Michael Floyd led the way in receptions and yardage. These three continue to all be startable, but of course, it’s tough to pick the lead dog each week.

Aaron Rodgers was sacked eight times as he completed just 15-of-28 passes for 151 yards, one touchdown, one interception and two fumbles, both of which were returned for touchdowns. Amazingly, the Packers could beat the Vikings next week and win the division, get the No. 3 seed and finish the season 11-5.

The Packers were demolished, embarrassed, and just plain beaten, so there were almost no fantasy players worth anything, but somehow Eddie Lacy had a couple nice gains down 31-0 in the third quarter, and he ended the day with 88 yards and a touchdown. If you started him this week, luck was on your side.

Rams 23, Seahawks 17
Case Keenum completed 14-of-23 passes for a measly 103 yards and a touchdown, but the Rams still managed to win this game due to defense and the run game. Keenum has been a big improvement over Nick Foles for real football, and for Todd Gurley, in fake football, but Keenum isn’t worthwhile in fantasy.

Todd Gurley totaled 92 yards on 20 touches and found the end zone, while also losing a fumble. These numbers are especially good when you realize Case Keenum was the quarterback and the Rams were playing Seattle in Seattle. Gurley’s a great running back and can put up good fantasy numbers on any team.

Russell Wilson completed 25-of-41 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns, 39 yards rushing, an interception and a fumble. It wasn’t his best game, but it’s nice to see his down games filled with fantasy points. He’s become a player you can trust no matter the opponent or game script.

Doug Baldwin caught 8-of-10 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown – his 14th of the year, with 12 coming after their Week 9 bye. He’s led fantasy teams to the playoffs this year and helped them win championships. His second half will be the thing of fantasy football legend.

Vikings 49, Giants 17
The Vikings put up 49 points on the Giants, while Teddy Bridgewater completed 15-of-25 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown. The other 42 points came from a defensive touchdown, five Blair Walsh field goals and three rushing touchdowns.

Jerick McKinnon only needed seven carries to put up 89 rushing yards and two touchdowns. His 68-yard touchdown run in garbage time capped off a nice fantasy day.

Adrian Peterson ended up carrying the ball 22 times for 104 yards and a touchdown, while adding a 15-yard reception. Peterson has been the most consistent fantasy running back this season, which isn’t saying all that much, as there has been almost no consistency from running backs this season, but Peterson has been one of the few to live up to their high draft spot.

Eli Manning was intercepted three times and completed 15-of-29 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown was a 72-yarder to Rueben Randle, which helped plenty of fantasy players, but that’s all there is for New York’s passing game.

Rashad Jennings totaled 136 yards on 16 touches and has been usable in fantasy over the last three weeks. I didn’t think I’d say that about any Giants running back this season.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 16, 2015

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