Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 4, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Jets 27, Dolphins 14
Chris Ivory ran 29 times for 169 yards and a touchdown. With a comfortable lead and Ivory just recovering from a thigh injury, his 29 carries seems excessive, but fantasy players aren’t going to complain today.

Ryan Tannehill threw two more interceptions, giving him seven over the last three games. He’s also thrown two touchdowns in each of those games, but mainly in garbage time.

Thankfully for his receivers, Tannehill continues to get enough garbage-time production to help them find fantasy value. But this week, instead of Rishard Matthews, it was free agent signee Kenny Stills who put up the garbage-time points as he caught 5-of-8 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. It took him a while to get going after a preseason injury, but today’s game should help him moving forward.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was not all that accurate this morning in London, but he managed the game well and used his scrambling ability to keep drives moving. This was his first game this season where he did not throw for two touchdowns.

Brandon Marshall continued his excellent play, catching 7-of-11 targets for 128 yards. That’s three-straight 100+ yard games, and his first game without a touchdown reception this season. He is now up to 30 receptions for 400 yards and three touchdowns, while topping 10 standard-league fantasy points in each game.

Falcons 48, Texans 21
Devonta Freeman has now rushed for 209 yards on 44 carries, caught 10 passes for 133 yards and for the extremely tasty icing on the cake, added six rushing touchdowns; all in the last two games! He is the first player to run for at least three touchdowns in each of his first two career starts. Tevin Coleman’s cracked ribs sure came at an inopportune time.

The Falcons led in this game 42-0 in the third quarter. That humiliation led to garbage-time fantasy points as Brian Hoyer took over for Ryan Mallett and helped DeAndre Hopkins continue his fantasy elitism with nine receptions for 157 yards on a mammoth 22 targets!

Julio Jones is mortal. He saw just six targets, catching four for 38 yards. With the Texans focusing on Jones, Leonard Hankerson led the team in receiving with six receptions on eight targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. Game flow really hurt Jones in this one, as Devonta Freeman was unstoppable and then the Falcons rested their starters.

Roddy White is very much droppable in fantasy leagues with just two receptions for eight yards, which were his first receptions in three games.

Arian Foster returned from his groin injury to rush eight times for 10 yards and catch 3-of-5 targets for 25 yards. He also lost a fumble after one of his own offensive linemen accidentally poked out the ball, which was then scooped and returned for a touchdown. Absolutely nothing went right for the Texans, but Foster not aggravating his injury is probably the best news of the day for them and Foster’s fantasy backers.

Colts 16, Jaguars 13
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed No. 2 wide receivers to kill them so far this season, with Percy Harvin in Week 1 catching five passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, Eric Decker with a 8/97/1 line, and now Allen Hurns with 11 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown. The moral of this story is; you do not want to be covered by Vontae Davis.

T.J. Yeldon had his first 100+ yard carry game as he rushed 22 times for 105 yards. He has yet to score his first touchdown though. It has to be coming, but unfortunately, it won’t be a downpour of touchdowns.

Forty-year-old backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck attempted an amazing 47 passes, completing 30 of them for 282 yards, one touchdown and a very important zero interceptions. Andrew Luck should be back next week, but Hasselbeck is a good enough game manager to keep from making big mistakes, and in this offense, that leads to decent fantasy points. Luck should take notice.

The decline of Andre Johnson is now complete. He has back-to-back games with no receptions and just three total targets over the last two games. If he’s lingering on your bench, set him free.

The Colts’ leading receiver this week wasn’t T.Y. Hilton or Donte Moncrief (even though they had respectable numbers while Luck was out), it was Mr. Coby Fleener who caught 9-of-12 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. The absence of Dwayne Allen helped those numbers, and unfortunately for Fleener backers, Allen should be back next week.

Bears 22, Raiders 20
Jay Cutler ended up playing in this game with the questionable tag, and his arm was very much needed as the Bears scored a touchdown on their first possession, while Jimmy Clausen didn’t move the ball into the red zone once last week. Cutler finished the day with 271 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception. Once Alshon Jeffery returns, Cutler should be useful in nice matchups like this one.

The Oakland Raiders have now allowed 32 receptions for 388 yards and six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Martellus Bennett was the latest to benefit from Oakland’s poor defense, catching 11 passes for 83 yards and a wide-open touchdown.

With Alshon Jeffery out, Marquess Wilson stepped up in this game, catching 6-of-9 targets for 80 yards. Wilson has had trouble with injuries over the last two seasons, but has good fantasy upside when he can get targets.

After two big games, Derek Carr took a slight step backward against the Bears’ fantasy-friendly defense, completing 20-of-33 passes for 196 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. They aren’t awful numbers, but against the Bears, we expect more. He’s still young and will continue to be hit or miss from week to week, but his offensive counterparts, Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray, should keep his floor decently high.

Latavius Murray touched the ball 19 times for 61 yards and also had a ball bounce off his chest into the hands of a defender, plus he dropped a pitch, which was also recovered by the defense. Those two plays seemingly got Murray benched for Roy Helu to finish the game. I expect we will start seeing more of Helu on passing downs going forward, but Murray hasn’t lost the job.

Redskins 23, Eagles 20
The first rushing touchdown allowed by the Eagles this season was to Kirk Cousins, who fumbled the snap exchange, picked up the fumble and then plunged into the line for a touchdown. That touchdown, plus a game-winning touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon, boosted Cousin’s fantasy day, but he will remain a fantasy black-hole.

Alfred Morris led Washington’s running backs in touches with 19 total, but for just 65 yards and no touchdowns. Chris Thompson, coming off a big game last week, was second in touches with eight, which he turned into 77 yards, and Matt Jones had seven rushing attempts for 11 yards. This backfield is turning into a fantasy nightmare.

Washington’s target leader in this game was Jamison Crowder, who saw 12 passes thrown his way, catching seven for 65 yards and no touchdowns. Andre Roberts was a healthy scratch for this game, and DeSean Jackson isn’t close to returning. Crowder and Ryan Grant will continue to follow Pierre Garcon on the depth chart.

Sam Bradford had plenty of poor throws in this game, but did hook up with Miles Austin, Riley Cooper and Brent Celek for touchdowns. Of course, not one of those players would have been a recommended play for this game. Chip Kelly’s offense unfortunately doesn’t play favorites.

The Eagles’ running backs continue to split already limited opportunities as DeMarco Murray had 10 touches for 48 yards, Ryan Mathews touched the ball five times for 20 yards and Darren Sproles had four touches for 17 yards. Until one of them can get around 20 touches a game, it will be hard to recommend them in fantasy.

Giants 24, Bills 10
Eli Manning threw three touchdowns to boost his fantasy numbers despite just 212 yards and his first interception of the year. Manning has now hit 19, 19 and 18 standard-league fantasy points over the last three games. It’s not always pretty, but he’s getting it done for fantasy coaches.

Manning targeted Odell Beckham Jr. 12 times, five more than the next closest New York receiver, but they were only able to connect five times for 38 yards, the same line as tight end Larry Donnell. There will be better days for Beckham Jr., but it was nice to see the 12 targets even when things weren’t going well.

As soon as Tyrod Taylor had won over the hearts and minds of fantasy footballers across this great nation, he goes and has his worst fantasy game of the season. Thankfully for his backers, it could have been even worse, as he and the Bills had just two first downs and 77 total yards through their first nine possessions. He will make mistakes, but he’s always just on the verge of doing something big.

Karlos Williams received the first start of his short NFL career because LeSean McCoy was out with a hamstring injury. After scoring a touchdown in each of the Bills’ first three games, Williams was bottled up for much of the afternoon before catching a 24-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. He managed to accumulate 70 total yards, with 30 coming through the air on three receptions from four targets. Those four targets most likely need to be more going forward, but Buffalo’s offense hasn’t been too keen on targeting running backs so far this season. Hopefully, William’s success this week will help him see more.

The Giants’ three-headed running back monster put together a decent fantasy game if it was a single entity, but unfortunately, Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and Shane Vereen all saw significant work and are, in fact, different people. Jennings was the fantasy winner of the group after taking a short pass 52 yards for a touchdown, but picking the right Giants running back each week will give you a mighty migraine.

Panthers 37, Buccaneers 23
Cam Newton’s recent fantasy dominance came to an end this week as he completed just 11-of-22 passes for 124 yards. He did throw two touchdowns and rush for 51 yards to keep from having a horrible day, but after 55 standard fantasy points over his last two games, his 15 today felt like a letdown. The rain, defense and dominance over the Buccaneers didn’t help, so look for him to need to put up more fantasy points going forward.

The Panthers’ No. 1 wide receiver, yes, Ted Ginn Jr., caught two touchdowns. You’ll of course take that and be giddy as a Ginn Jr. backer, but those were also his only two receptions on the day.

Brenton Bersin led the team in receptions and yards with four receptions on four targets for 54 yards. Bersin is running ahead of Devin Funchess, who saw two targets, but no receptions. If you haven’t already, drop Funchess.

Jameis Winston was absolutely horrible in this game. He started the game by throwing a pick-six on his first attempt; the second time he’s done that this season. The intermittent downpours didn’t help, but Winston ended the day with four interceptions. The rain might have been a good excuse, but Cam Newton threw no interceptions on the day. Winston has a ways to go before he can be recommended in fantasy.

Vincent Jackson was the main beneficiary of garbage time, as he saw 15 targets and caught 10 for 147 yards and a touchdown. Mike Evans, on the other hand, did not benefit from anything, as he saw eight targets and caught three for 32 yards. These two will continue to see a healthy amount of targets as Winston and Tampa’s defense causes the Bucs to play catch up, but there will be hiccups.

Doug Martin’s fantasy backers should be plenty excited after he rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. But, it was almost just a nice to see him get five targets and catch all five for 37 yards. He had just three receptions coming into this game. If Martin can get more snaps in passing downs, his fantasy value will get a nice boost.

Bengals 36, Chiefs 21
Andy Dalton was efficient in this matchup, completing 17-of-24 passes for 321 yards and one touchdown. Unfortunately for Red Rifle supporters, most of the touchdowning took place on the ground. That won’t be the case every week, and he still ended up with one of the better games of this weird week of fantasy football.

The Bengals’ running backs, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, ran 22 times for 102 yards. That doesn’t sound all that exceptional until I add that Hill scored three touchdowns and Bernard, one. These are the games you paid for when you drafted Hill. Yes, he lost playing time after a case of the fumbles, but we knew Hue Jackson wasn’t going to abandon the run, and Cincinnati very much needs the one-two punch of these two exceptional backs.

Marvin Jones had caught a touchdown in his last two games while earning more targets, until today. Jones finished the day with two targets, catching one for four yards. His replacement in the target pecking order was Mohamed Sanu, who saw six target and caught four for 84 yards. This offense is clicking enough to support more than one fantasy wide receiver, but this flip-flopping between Jones and Sanu could make that difficult.

Jeremy Maclin is not going away anytime soon. After a slow start, with flashes of greatness, Maclin has put back-to-back 140+-yard receiving games. Against the Bengals, he caught 11-of-13 targets for 148 yards.

Kansas City scored 21 points against the Bengals. That’s not too bad right? Three touchdowns? Was that Jamaal Charles or Travis Kelce or some vulture? Nope, they were all field goals from Cairo Santos. So seven times, Kansas City got into field goal range and seven times, did not score a touchdown. Alex Smith threw for 386 yards; no touchdown. Jamaal Charles totaled 145 yards; no touchdown. If you lost your league because you faced Santos, I feel for you.

Chargers 30, Browns 27
Two of the top fantasy quarterback totals came from this game as Josh McCown and Philip Rivers combined for 714 yards passing, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Right now, that puts them at first and third for Week 4. Both completed passes to eight different players and both topped 350 yards passing. In the end, this was a masterful display of quarterbacking and a McCown was part of it.

It’s taken me a while to warm up to Travis Benjamin, but he’s now had four solid games to start the season and needs to be rostered in all fantasy formats. Against the Chargers, he saw 10 targets, catching six for 79 yards. He’s not your prototypical No. 1 receiver, but they aren’t using him in that capacity. They move him around the formation and scheme to get him the ball. As long as that’s happening, he’s a fantasy asset.

Those of you waiting on Duke Johnson to break out, wait no longer. After getting six receptions last week, the hope was he’d keep that usage up, and instead, the Browns pushed that number up to nine receptions on 10 targets this week. He ended up with 85 receiving yards and a touchdown and tacked on 31 yards rushing on eight carries. He’s not going to supplant Isaiah Crowell as the early down back, but this team will be behind often and in pass mode, which could mean a windfall of receptions for Johnson.

After Gary Barnidge’s big game last week, most attributed it to the Raiders’ extremely poor defense against tight ends, but now the Chargers’ extremely poor defense against tight ends allowed him to catch all six of his targets for 75 yards and a touchdown, including a nice contested catch he had to lay out for. Can this Cleveland team support multiple fantasy players — probably not well, but enough to play them in nice matchups.

Both Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson were injured in this game, Floyd with a concussion and Johnson with a hamstring. That pushed Dontrelle Inman up into the spotlight, and he did not crouch in fear, instead he caught 3-of-5 targets for 88 yards. Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks at getting the most out of his receivers, and if Johnson and Floyd miss any time, Inman should have value.

Broncos 23, Vikings 20
The Broncos sacked Teddy Bridgewater seven times, which was sorely needed as Peyton Manning threw two interceptions and totaled 213 yards and one touchdown. Manning still has good games in him, but they will be fewer and farther between each other.

Denver’s running game took a step forward this week as Ronnie Hillman took a sweep 72 yards for a touchdown and C.J. Anderson totaled 70 yards on 12 touches. Both backs had exactly 11 carries and one reception. The timeshare is in full effect, but it was nice to see Anderson make some positive plays. Neither makes for a slam-dunk fantasy play going forward, but should still have value.

Demaryius Thomas was easily the most targeted Broncos’ player this week. He saw 12 targets, catching nine for 93 yards. Thomas now has seven or more receptions in each game, and his last three games have gone over 92 yards. His three double-digit touchdown seasons in a row may be in jeopardy, but he’ll find the end zone and continue to be a strong play each week.

Coming into this week, Denver’s defense has held Joe Flacco to no fantasy points, Alex Smith to four and Matthew Stafford to nine. Teddy Bridgewater put up 14 in Denver with Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright both out with injuries. Bridgewater threw for 269 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 23 yards on three carries and almost pulled off a win in Denver. It was a marked improvement from last week.

You can hold Adrian Peterson down, but at some point, he’s going to burst through, just like he did on a 4th and 1, when he went right up the gut for a 44-yard touchdown. After a slow start to the season, Peterson has now rushed for 341 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games.

Packers 17, 49ers 3
Aaron Rodgers had his worst fantasy game this season, but he and his team won fairly easily. Traveling to the west coast after a Monday night game against Kansas City, where Rodgers tossed five-touchdowns, was a set up for a let down, but this is a San Francisco squad that has been demoralized, and a mediocre game from Rodgers promised three touchdowns and 300 yards!

Richard Rodgers caught the only receiving touchdown on the day and had an efficient four receptions on five targets for 45 yards. He is very much a touchdown-dependent fantasy play each week, but he does have a touchdown in half of the Packers’ matchups this season.

Eddie Lacy appears to be healthy as he rushed 18 times for 90 yards. He didn’t get a touchdown as perennial touchdown vulture John Kuhn ruined the hopes and dreams of many a fantasy footballer. But the fact Lacy came out of this game healthy is good news, and even better fantasy days are ahead.

Randall Cobb led the team with eight targets, but James Jones led the team in receiving yards, catching 5-of-6 targets for 98 yards. It was his first game of the season in which he didn’t score a touchdown, but he continues to make great plays and is becoming 1B to Cobb’s 1A.

The 49ers totaled 196 yards and seven first downs for an average of 3.9 yards per play. That’s not helping any fantasy players anywhere, ever.

Rams 24, Cardinals 22
Todd Gurley rushed for 144 yards in the second half, which included him sliding to the ground to help run the clock when he could have gone for even more yardage. And all this came against a tough Arizona defense in Arizona. We knew Gurley was going to be good and now it has started.

Tavon Austin caught 6-of-7 targets for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Let me repeat that. Or you can just read it again. That’s easier for me. He led the team in targets and continues to show these kinds of flashes of greatness, until next week when he gains 23 yards.

Nick Foles went from being unable to throw the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers in St. Louis, to throwing for three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cardinals. That’s a quarterback you can’t trust in fantasy.

The St. Louis defense came up big in this one, forcing turnovers and pressuring Carson Palmer. Palmer finished with 352 yards passing as he tried to bring his team back, but only had one touchdown pass after averaging three a game to start the season. The division rivalry, coupled with the Rams’ strong front line, made this outcome foreseeable, and the fact that he put together an okay game and stayed healthy is positive.

David Johnson continues to show his amazing ability and was the only Cardinals player to score a touchdown, but he also fumbled the opening kickoff and dropped what should have been a touchdown. He ended up with 81 yards and a touchdown on just seven touches, but he had 10 targets and only caught four. This game was a mixed bag for Johnson, but 10 targets are interesting. Of course, Andre Ellington will probably return and cloud the situation even more.

Saints 26, Cowboys 20
Drew Brees returned to action this week and put up big numbers, completing 33-of-41 passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns. But those numbers were in severe doubt before the Saints’ last two possessions, when he led his team down the field for a tying field goal and then on the second play of overtime when he connected with C.J. Spiller who took it 80 yards to the house. Of course, Brees’ fantasy backers will take his numbers in anyway they come, but his arm appeared weak coming off his shoulder injury and he had to dink and dunk most of the night. The good news is he appeared to get stronger as the game went on, and this could be a nice turnaround game for him and this offense.

As noted above, C.J. Spiller ended this game with an 80-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown. The word from Sean Payton was they wanted to get Spiller more work, but until that play in overtime, he had six looks for 29 yards. Spiller seems like the perfect fit for this offense, and hopefully, his big play propels him to more work going forward.

Willie Snead appears to have a firm grip on the Saints’ No. 2 receiver position. He was third in targets behind Brandin Cooks and Mark Ingram, but caught all six of his targets for 89 yards, which blew Brandin Cooks’ game out of the stadium. As is the case with Saints offensive players, it’s always a little tough to judge them based on the pecking order from game to game, but Snead now has 15 receptions in the last three games and appears to have won over the coaching staff.

Mark Ingram totaled 126 yards on 23 touches. His six receptions on seven targets for 51 yards continues his heavy usage in the passing game. He now has 22 receptions through the first four games, which puts him on pace for 88 receptions. Maybe more C.J. Spiller in the offense cuts into Ingram’s receiving work, but he’s been productive and should still see targets.

The Cowboys without Dez Bryant and Tony Romo are not set up for much fantasy production, but Lance Dunbar had been playing extremely well in this new dink-and-dunk offense, and he started the game with three rushing attempts for 54 yards. But that’s where it ended, because he injured his knee. Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle split carries after that and did little to nothing with them. Dunbar’s injury didn’t look good, and McFadden and Randle aren’t going to have much success without a passing game, so the fantasy situation there is not one to get excited about.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 4, 2015

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