Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 9, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Steelers 38, Raiders 35
Ben Roethlisberger had his foot smushed by Aldon Smith, which looked worse than it actually was. Well, if Smith had landed on my foot like that I’d have just fell over dead, but initial reports are that Roethlisberger has a mid-foot sprain and will miss two weeks. That would have him miss next week against Cleveland and then he’ll miss the bye week, but he could be back to face the Seahawks in Seattle for Week 12.

Roethlisberger had no trouble finding Antonio Brown in this one, and once Landry Jones came in after Roethlisberger went down, he was also able to find Brown. The Oakland defense had a bit more trouble finding him as he caught 17 passes for 284 yards and ran twice for 22 more yards. With Landry Jones at quarterback, Brown won’t have nearly the upside that he has with Roethlisberger, but Landry Jones has looked a ton better than Michael Vick and gives Brown at least a shot for a decent game next week against a poor Cleveland defense.

Le’Veon Bell’s 32-year-old backup, DeAngelo Williams, rushed for 170 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching two passes for 55 more yards. He now owns the post-merger record for a 32-year-old running back with 225 total yards from scrimmage in a game. He gets a great matchup against the Browns next week without Roethlisberger and then a bye. There’s a good chance Williams doesn’t miss a beat.

Derek Carr had another great fantasy and real-life game, as he threw for 301 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. He’s now thrown for 923 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception over his last three games. Of course, the Steelers’ defense is middling, but Carr also did it against the Jets last week and gets a decent schedule going forward.

Besides Carr making some great throws, he’s also got two top receivers to throw to, including Michael Crabtree, who looked his best this week, catching seven passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns. Crabtree made some tough receptions and even pulled down a couple of tough grabs that were barely out of bounds. He even looked better than Amari Cooper in this game, who had a couple costly drops for his team.

Panthers 37, Packers 29
The real-life game here was a fun one to watch, but the fantasy game was just as fun for those with Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers, who both put up big numbers. Newton had his best fantasy game of the season, which isn’t that easy, as he threw for 297 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and rushed nine times for 57 yards and a touchdown. This was his first three-touchdown passing game, but he’s also rushed for five touchdowns. His schedule isn’t prohibitive to fantasy points going forward and he’s had his bye. Giddy up!

The Panthers’ leading receiver, Ted Ginn Jr. only saw four targets and caught one for 20 yards, while Greg Olsen and Jerricho Cotchery had more targets, and Devin Funchess and Corey Brown saw equal targets, but had much bigger games, including a touchdown each. This game sets up this receiving group for fantasy migraines going forward. If Ginn Jr. isn’t leading the wide receivers in targets, he is worthless for fantasy. and the same is true for any of the other guys who stepped up this week, not named Greg Olsen.

Those five touchdown runs from Cam Newton have all been of the goal-line variety, and until Johnathan Stewart can prove he’s a better goal-line back, he’ll continue to lose out on fantasy points. Stewart did get 20 carries, which is great to see, but he also only went for just 66 yards and only had one reception on two targets for two yards. Stewart’ll continue to be a solid start, but you just count on him reaching as high as he could.

Aaron Rodgers hadn’t thrown for over 255 yards or two touchdowns since Week 3 against Kansas City. That doesn’t sound like a crazy stat, but this is Aaron Rodgers we are talking about. But this week, he went to Carolina and put up 369 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. The interception was huge, but not for his fantasy owners, who will take this result and run as fast as they can before someone says they can’t have all those points.

Rodgers targeted Randall Cobb the most with 12, then Davante Adams with 11, Richard Rodgers had none and James Starks had eight. Cobb only managed four receptions, but one was for a long touchdown and he finished with his 99 yards, and that score. He hadn’t topped 44 yards or had a touchdown since Week 3.

Patriots 27, Redskins 10
Tom Brady’s 299 yards, two touchdowns and one interception made for his worst fantasy game of the season and his first under 22 fantasy points. That’s an incredible sentence this late in the season. Of course, this isn’t an indictment on Brady at all and just shows you how amazing he has been all season.

The Patriots, instead of running up the score through the air, decided to get LeGarrette Blount rolling, giving him 29 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown. This was probably the most merciful I’ve seen Bill Belichick.

The bad news for the Patriots was losing Dion Lewis to a knee injury. We don’t have any good reports yet on how severe the injury will be for Lewis, but the reports aren’t overly optimistic. Prepare for the worst.

Brandon LaFell led the Patriots in targets, receptions and yards this week, which is another good sign after his horrible first game back. I think we can feel pretty secure in Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and LaFell leading in targets going forward.

The Patriots held the ball for 37 minutes compared to Washington’s 22, and that spelled doom for Kirk Cousins’ group. No Washington player had over 10 fantasy points. In easier matchups, we’ll be able to scrounge some fantasy points from these guys, but not this week, and especially not when Belichick decides to run the clock out.

Titans 34, Saints 28
Marcus Mariota threw for four touchdowns against the Saints on Sunday, and it only tied his career high through his six career starts. He now has averaged over two touchdown passes per game. His injury and a couple bad games have him as a forgotten man in fantasy, but in his final seven games, he’ll get some nice matchups, including Jacksonville twice, Oakland and Houston.

Even though he didn’t get the start in two-man sets, Dorial Green-Beckham finally was used extensively and led the team with 10 targets. He caught five for 77 yards, both career highs. Kendall Wright was out of this game, but it’s great to see Green-Beckham get the work, and it’s a nice sign for Mariota’s outlook as well.

Antonio Andrews was the workhorse in this one, totaling 111 yards on 20 touches. His ability is still average, but he is getting enough work to be worthwhile in fantasy, and until we see David Cobb on the field and making plays, I’m not going to hold my breath.

Drew Brees started off blistering hot once again and finished with another strong game, completing 28-of-39 passes for 387 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for a 1-yard touchdown. He’s accounted for 11 touchdowns over the last two games and now faces Washington, Houston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Detroit and Jacksonville to finish out the season.

Willie Snead was his main target this week with 10, of which he caught six for 95 yards. Brandin Cooks saw just six targets, but caught four for 71 yards and a touchdown. These two remain the top two targets and should have plenty of upside going forward.

Jets 28, Jaguars 23
Ryan Fitzpatrick managed yet another outing where he had around 275 passing yards and two touchdowns. So once again he didn’t kill you, but didn’t win you a matchup. The good news is that his thumb injury didn’t seem to impact his game that much and he was able to throw a touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall and another to Eric Decker.

Chris Ivory rushed the ball 23 times, caught all three of his targets and scored two touchdowns, so you are happy if you started him, but he did only manage 26 rushing yards for a nice 1.1 yards per carry. That gives him 55 carries for 84 yards in his last three games. His running style might be catching up with him.

Blake Bortles threw for 381 yards, two touchdowns and rushed for 32 yards against the Jets on Sunday. He also tossed a couple picks and lost a fumble, so his upside got cut right off, but that’s still a nice 20-point fantasy game from Bortles and his sixth multi-touchdown game out of eight.

Allen Hurns caught yet another touchdown on Sunday. It was his sixth-straight game with a touchdown, and he looked great doing so. You just keep starting him and thank the fantasy gods.

Allen Robinson was able to put up good numbers on Darrelle Revis, and you can thank Bortles for not shying away as Robinson caught six of 11 targets for 121 yards. Robinson’s matchup proof.

Vikings 21, Rams 18
Teddy Bridgewater left this game after taking a late hit in the fourth quarter, but against a tough St. Louis defense, Bridgewater wasn’t making many strides. The Vikings had to rely on Adrian Peterson, who rushed 29 times for 125 yards and one touchdown and caught 2-of-2 targets for another 18 yards. This was one of Peterson’s best games of the season and maybe his best. He’ll get the Raiders next week, who have been tough, but also just gave up 225 total yards to DeAngelo Williams.

Stefon Diggs had a slow game against the Rams’ tough pass defense, but he was still the leading target and shouldn’t have any trouble against weaker defenses going forward. Of course, he most likely needs Bridgewater to be cleared sooner rather than later.

Nick Foles is awful and hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in his last seven games. Of course, he’s not even a faint blip on the fantasy radar, but anything from the passing game would help Todd Gurley see a few more holes to run through.

Todd Gurley, despite the lack of any offense besides himself, was able to find the end zone a total over 100 yards. He is matchup proof.

Tavon Austin did drop a touchdown pass in this one, but rushed an amazing eight times for 66 yards. Those attempts really help his floor, which has been pretty darn low, but his ceiling has been too high to ignore him.

Bills 33, Dolphins 17
Tyrod Taylor only needed to throw the ball 12 times to put up 11 completions for 181 yards and a touchdown. The bulk of those completions went to Sammy Watkins, who caught all eight of his targets for 168 yards and a touchdown. It truly is a bizarre stat line, and Taylor’s 10 rushing attempts for 44 yards helped a little, but game flow in this one was not kind to him, as he would have put up better numbers if Miami could have kept this close.

As you just read, unless you enjoy reading bottom to top, Sammy Watkins had a big game. This was only his fourth game of the year, after sitting out the other four with injuries. He sure seems like a sell-high candidate, even though he has great ability. Injuries coupled with a good defense and rushing game will make it tough for him to put these kinds of numbers up consistently.

Buffalo’s running backs ran roughshod over Miami, with both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy topping 100 yards rushing, and Williams getting two touchdowns and McCoy one. McCoy did hurt his shoulder though and will have a MRI. He says he is fine and the game was out of hand when he left, but it’s worth watching with the Bills playing the Jets on Thursday.

Lamar Miller continues to play well, and this week he did a ton of damage through the air, catching all seven of his targets for 97 yards. He also found the end zone twice on goal-line runs. Those two things are usually tough for a single running back to even get a chance to do. His versatility is much like Matt Forte’s, and hopefully Miami’ll continue using him in the passing game. He had 12 receptions for 83 yards through the first five games and 15 for 177 yards and a touchdown in his last three.

Jarvis Landry caught a nice 11-of-13 targets for 69 yards and ran the ball four times for 18 yards. In PPR leagues, this was a good game, but in non-PPR, not as much. But the good news is he touched the ball 15 times, and I’ll take that for my fantasy receiver.

49ers 17, Falcons 16
Blaine Gabbert had a decent game, which was much more than most people expected from him, but his two touchdown passes went to Garrett Celek, and he only threw for 185 yards. This game was more of an indictment on just how bad the Falcons are right now.

Matt Ryan had a great matchup and was forced to throw because the 49ers didn’t roll over, but he still managed yet another mediocre fantasy game. Thankfully for fantasy, he targets Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman.

Julio Jones topped 1,000 yards for the season this week and still has seven games left. He ended up catching 10 of his 17 targets for 137 yards, but couldn’t get into the end zone in a superb matchup.

Devonta Freeman was stuffed as a runner this week, but was able to corral 8-of-10 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown, his 11th touchdown of the season. His 12 carries for 12 yards against a San Francisco defense that has been getting run on is a bit troublesome. Freeman needs his offensive line to play well, and he looks faster on turf, but thankfully, he’s getting enough all-purpose touches to put up good numbers even when one avenue is blocked off.

With Leonard Hankerson still out and Roddy White not getting much work, Jacob Tamme continues to see good targets. He turned his 10 targets into six receptions for 61 yards. It wasn’t a huge game, but worthwhile for a streaming option during the bye weeks.

Colts 27, Broncos 24
Andrew Luck didn’t put up huge numbers, but this was one of his best games of the season and came against one of the best defenses in the league. He put up 252 yards passing, two touchdowns, no interceptions and 34 yards rushing. Luck tentatively looks like he’s turned a bit of a corner.

T.Y. Hilton looked destined to sit this game out, but he gave it a go and looked strong catching five of six passes for 82 yards. He’ll have a tough matchup with Desmond Trufant next week, but looked healthy here and is back as an every-week start.

The promise of getting Gore more touches came to fruition this week as he ran the ball 28 times for 83 yards and a score, adding 19 yards on one reception. Remember, this was against the Broncos. If you started him, you have to be ecstatic, and his usage appears to be on the upswing.

Peyton Manning threw a couple more interceptions, but did look good for most of this game, completing 21-of-36 attempts for 281 yards and two touchdowns. His upside of course isn’t anywhere near what it once was, but he’s also looked better since the bye and, in the right matchups, still has fantasy starter ability.

Maybe the signing of Vernon Davis lit a firecracker under Old Man Daniels. He had a huge game, catching 6-of-9 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown. Through his first seven games, he had 129 yards for two touchdowns.

Eagles 33, Cowboys 27
The Eagles are hard to read, but this week was a nice step for them. Sam Bradford looked like a NFL quarterback and their up-tempo run game was effective, both in real life and fantasy.

DeMarco Murray may not be as efficient as Ryan Matthews, but he sure gets enough work to put up good numbers, and this week, he looked like he took a step forward in this offense as he totaled 25 looks for 161 yards and a touchdown.

Jordan Matthews finally broke out of his slump this week, and he did so in a big way with a 44-yard game-winning touchdown. Matthews finished with nine receptions for 133 yards and the touchdown. This was his first touchdown since Week 2 against the Cowboys. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come.

Cole Beasley caught 9-of-11 targets for 112 yards and two touchdowns. He had been targeted three times in their last two games and had caught zilch. So, your guess is as good as mine.

Dez Bryant was no Cole Beasley, but he did catch 5-of-8 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. He gets Tampa Bay next week and should be able to have another good game as he waits for Tony Romo to return.

Giants 32, Bucs 18
Eli Manning had a letdown fantasy game in a great matchup, with 26-of-40 completions for 213 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but the weather was a big part of his down game, as it rained consistently and shrank the passing game down to short to intermediate passes. Even in a tough matchup with the Patriots next week, he should have more upside as long as the weather is better.

The Giants continue to run what can only be called a running back committee on steroids, but the kind of steroids that make you weaker. Rashad Jennings had 14 touches, Shane Vereen, 10; Andre Williams, eight; and Orleans Darkwa, six. Shane Vereen scored the lone touchdown of the four ball-carriers and also caught four passes. He now has three receiving touchdowns in the last five games and is the only back on the team worth holding onto, and even that is mostly in PPR leagues.

Rueben Randle caught a touchdown and all five of his targets. It’s good to see as he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue and Dwayne Harris looked like he could be moving in on his turf last week. Randle’ll still be a risky play, but he’s worth starting now.

Doug Martin has quickly fallen in the fantasy ranks after two down games in a row, and since Charles Sims has been playing well, Martin doesn’t have a very long leash. He was benched for a while after a fumble on Sunday and did not play well when he was in there. Sims also fumbled, but did put up 78 yards on eight carries. Martin has looked great this season, so I’m willing to keep riding with him, but it’s getting a little worrisome.

Mike Evans dropped somewhere between four and 50 passes on Sunday, depending on who you talk to, but he, no doubt, dropped too many. With Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson out, Evans still saw a whopping 19 targets, catching eight for 152 yards, but also lost a fumble on a “Stanford Band” play to end the game. Jameis Winston has looked much better of late and could have easily had an extra 50-100 yards passing if Evans could corral just half of those drops. Getting Jackson and Seferian-Jenkins back would help the offense as a whole and hopefully take some pressure of Evans.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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