Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 14, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Redskins 24, Bears 21
Jordan Reed was a beast in this game, catching 9-of-9 targets for 120 yards, a touchdown and a near-touchdown that was overturned, and capitalized on by Alfred Morris as he got the goal-line touchdown. The Bears had been tough on tight ends all season, but Reed showed just how good he can be.

Kirk Cousins had his best road game of the season in Chicago, with 21 points. He completed 24-of-31 passes for 300 yards, one touchdown, one interception and added an all-important rushing touchdown to his stats. This is a great sign for Cousins, as he had averaged just nine fantasy points in his five road games before this. Over the last two seasons, Washington has won just two road games, including this one.

Matt Jones led the way between Morris and himself, with 20 touches for 86 yards, while Morris finished with 11 touches for 24 yards and the touchdown. It’s still to be seen how much work Pierre Thomas will receive as Chris Thompson’s replacement. Thomas caught his lone target for 12 yards in this game. Washington really wants Matt Jones to take the lead role, and if he can hold onto the ball, he will.

Jay Cutler returned from a stretch of three extremely down fantasy games to put up 18 points in this one, completing 19-of-31 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns. He wasn’t perfect, but he led this team to three touchdowns, with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller catching one each, and Matt Forte rushing another one in.

After receiving 26 touches last week, out-pacing Jeremy Langford by 12, Forte had just 11 total touches to Langford’s 14. Thankfully for his fantasy backers, Forte got into the end zone, but from here on, he can’t be counted on.

Seahawks 35, Ravens 6
Russell Wilson completed 23-of-32 passes for 292 yards and five touchdowns. Yes, even in a 35-6 shellacking, Wilson accounted for every touchdown, and they all came through the air. This is nice to see, since he will take on the hapless Browns next week and will most likely blow them out of the water as well.

Thomas Rawls fractured his ankle and is done for the season. DuJuan Harris took over for him and rushed 18 times for 42 yards and lost a fumble, while Fred Jackson rushed seven times for 15 yards and caught 1-of-4 targets for eight yards. So, Harris is the pickup for the cupcake matchup against the Browns next week.

With the air assault this week, all three of Seattle’s receivers got into the fun, but Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett caught all of the touchdowns, with three and two respectively. Baldwin now has nine touchdowns in his last five games, after catching two in his first eight. Or, he has eight touchdowns in his last three games after catching three in his first 10!

Jimmy Clausen wasn’t a complete disaster, which is saying a lot with the talent-deficient offense, including himself, that he had to work with. He completed 23-of-40 passes for 274 yards and one interception, with his leading receivers being Kamar Aiken, Jeremy Butler, Daniel Brown and Buck Allen.

Buck Allen remains a good PPR back, but does get two strong run defenses in Kansas City and Pittsburgh over the next two weeks.

Browns 24, 49ers 10
The 49ers’ defense did its usual disappearing act on the road and let the Browns’ running backs rush for 223 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries. Most of those went to Isaiah Crowell, who rushed 20 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns, while Duke Johnson also had a nice game with 13 carries for 78 yards. Cleveland’s dominance on the ground opened things up for Johnny Manziel, to have room to work.

Manziel ended up completing 21-of-31 passes for 270 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. Besides the interception, which was an extremely ill-advised throw, Manziel played well and in fantasy, helped his receivers put up good points. He ended up with just 13 fantasy points, and even though he rushed/scrambled seven times, he only totaled 15 yards on the ground. Manziel’ll need to bump his stats up on the ground to be worthwhile in a run-first offense.

The great Gary Barnidge caught 5-of-7 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown, and no matter who is quarterbacking for him, he gets the job done.

Brian Hartline had a great game, securing 8-of-10 targets for 107 yards, but he had to leave early with a broken collarbone. Travis Benjamin and Barnidge will get extra looks moving forward.

Blaine Gabbert was sacked an amazing nine times in this tilt, while completing 18-of-28 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown, adding 19 yards on three carries. No 49ers player topped 50 yards. Gabbert has been an upgrade on Colin Kaepernick, but that’s not saying much. His upside is still lower than good fantasy quarterbacks’ floors.

Panthers 38, Falcons 0
This game was over before it started, and thankfully for Cam Newton backers, he was able to get three passing touchdowns before he was taken out of this blowout in the third quarter. Newton completed 15-of-21 passes for 265 yards and three touchdowns, while barely breaking a sweat.

Ted Ginn Jr. didn’t drop any of his open deep shots like last week and ended up catching 2-of-3 targets for 120 yards and two touchdowns. He is the ultimate boom-or-bust receiver and is most likely to be on your bench when he has huge games and in your lineup when he gets shut out.

Jonathan Stewart started hot in this game, rushing 10 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, but had to leave with a foot injury. Greg Olsen also had to leave with an injury, his to his left knee, but both appear to be okay for next week. But this does make you wonder, especially with Stewart, if his workload will be reduced to save him up for the playoffs.

The Arizona Cardinals own the tiebreaker between these two teams, so thankfully the Panthers will need to continue to play to win for a little longer.

The Atlanta Falcons have gone deep into the garbage bin, with walls slowly closing in on them. Unfortunately, R2-D2 is nowhere to be found.

Eagles 23, Bills 20
The Eagles won the game, but the fantasy points were spread out enough that kicker Caleb Sturgis led the team. Sam Bradford was his usual “Jekyll and Hyde” self, completing 23-of-38 passes for 247 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points since Week 5, and he’s only done it twice this season.

Darren Sproles led the running backs in fantasy scoring, but was third in touches, with Ryan Mathews receiving 15 touches for 42 yards, DeMarco Murray with 13 touches for 37 yards and Sproles with nine touches for 45 yards and a touchdown. This backfield has been a headache all season, but now it’s a migraine.

Nelson Agholor led the non-kickers with 12 fantasy points, with most coming on a 53-yard touchdown grab. It’s a good sign for him, but there is no reason to believe any kind of consistency is coming.

The leader in targets, receptions and yards was Zach Ertz who corralled 5-of-7 targets for 98 yards. His previous yardage high this season was 68. He remains an iffy fantasy play, as he and this team have no consistency to pull from and in your fantasy playoffs; he is just too risky.

The Bills started fast, as Tyrod Taylor hit Sammy Watkins for a 47-yard touchdown, but the Bills’ offense bogged down for much of the second half. Taylor ended up completing 19-of-36 attempts for 268 yards, a touchdown, and a backbreaking interception, but his fantasy numbers stayed decent as he added eight carries for 53 yards.

Sammy Watkins again started hot and faded, and also hurt himself with a couple drops. Robert Woods was actually the best receiver on Sunday for the Bills, catching 5-of-7 targets for 106 yards compared to Watkins’ 5-of-12 targets for 81 yards.

Steelers 33, Bengals 20
Ben Roethlisberger had one of those fantasy games an owner dreads. He was on-target all game, completing 30-of-39 passes for 282 yards, for a nice 77 percent completion ratio, but he threw no touchdowns and had one interception. The Bengals, of course, are no slouches on defense, but Roethlisberger carved them up with short to intermediate passes and lived on their side of the field. Pittsburgh thrived on DeAngelo Williams rushing for two scores and an interception returned for a touchdown, which along with a comfortable lead, made Roethlisberger forcing the issue ill advised.

Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant both caught seven passes, but were never able to break one. Bryant did drop/almost catch a beautifully thrown pass in the end zone, which he has done a few times this season.

Heath Miller was a PPR dream, with 10 receptions on 10 targets. He only totaled a measly 66 yards though. That puts his standard league score at six and his PPR league score at 16.

Andy Dalton broke his thumb and Tyler Eifert suffered a brain injury, which put A.J. McCarron and A.J. Green at the forefront. Thankfully for Green backers, that worked out pretty well, as he caught 6-of-9 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown.

McCarron made some horrible throws and some okay ones, but was not sharp. Of course getting called in to play in a game against a division rival that would have given them the division title, is not the best-case scenario for the second-year player. His numbers weren’t bad, completing 22-of-32 attempts for 280 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but his team was also down and in pass-first mode. Next week against San Francisco, you can count on the Bengals going run heavy.

Saints 24, Bucs 17
Drew Brees completed 31-of-41 passes for 312 yards and two touchdowns, for his best fantasy game on the road this season. Heading into this game, Brees had averaged 12.4 fantasy points on the road, with his high being 16 fantasy points. With two home games against Detroit and Jacksonville to finish the fantasy season, he still holds some appeal.

Amazingly, his two touchdown passes went to Marques Colston, who I called a potted plant after his one-catch effort last week with Willie Snead out. He finished with 6-of-8 receptions for 36 yards and those two touchdowns, doubling his output of one touchdown on the season. Colston has no ability after the catch anymore, so he relies on touchdowns for fantasy production, which he usually does not get.

Willie Snead led the way in yardage, bringing in 7-of-8 targets for 122 yards, while Brandin Cooks saw just five targets, catching three for 29 yards. It was an odd turn, as Cooks hadn’t seen so few targets since his beginning-of-the-year slump.

Tim Hightower had a monstrous 28 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, tacking on a 10-yard reception. You’ll take those numbers and run if you had to start him this week.

The Bucs were behind quickly in this game, and Jameis Winston couldn’t capitalize on the uptick in what should have been a perfect game for him to put up yardage in come-from-behind mode. He completed 18-of-32 passes for just 182 yards and a touchdown in garbage time. This was the first game the Saints didn’t allow a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards and only the third in which they gave up just one touchdown pass.

Doug Martin somehow managed to put together a nice game as on a measly 12 touches, he totaled 86 yards and a touchdown. Maybe get him the ball more?

Vincent Jackson left this game with a knee injury and didn’t return. You would assume that would help Mike Evans, but he only saw four targets, catching three for 39 yards. If Jackson misses time, we can expect Evans to again get inundated with targets despite this game’s weirdness.

Jaguars 51, Colts 16
It took a little while to get going, but the Jaguars put up 51 points on the Colts in a beatdown of monumental proportions. A big chunk of those points came from the defense and special teams, but Blake Bortles came through again for his fantasy backers, as he completed 16-of-30 passes for 250 yards and three touchdowns. He’s had an up-and-down season, but his ups are Spud Webb-like, which makes it tough to sit him. Bortles faces Atlanta and New Orleans to finish the fantasy season; that’s some cake right there.

All three of Bortles’ touchdowns went to fantasy players, which is always nice. Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and Allen Robinson all scored, but the biggest let-down of the day was Robinson’s one reception, which thankfully went for the touchdown. Robinson’s touchdown was for four yards, while Hurns’ touchdown was for 80 yards. That’s a tangible difference. But going forward, you shouldn’t worry about Robinson.

T.J. Yeldon left the game a couple different times with ankle problems and then a more severe knee injury that kept him out. Yeldon had 11 carries for 62 yards before Denard Robinson took over for him and had 14 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown, coupled with one reception for 12 yards. He looked strong and quick, and if Yeldon is out, Robinson is a must-add, especially with the nice schedule remaining.

T.Y. Hilton caught 4-of-7 targets for 132 yards and was the lone fantasy asset from the Colts this week. It was a nice game to be sure, but Hilton backers should thank their lucky charms before devouring them Monday morning.

Matt Hasselbeck didn’t throw an interception, but also didn’t throw a touchdown and also lost a fumble, which was returned for a touchdown. He barely topped completing half his passes and is very much a 40-year-old backup.

Chiefs 10, Chargers 3
Alex Smith completed 15-of-23 passes for 191 yards, a touchdown and his first interception since Week 3. His 40 yards on the ground kept him from having a sub-double-digit day, but it was still a poor fantasy day and helps remind us that his last two games were closer to his ceiling than his floor.

With Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West splitting work and Smith completing just 15 passes for under 200 yards, there weren’t many fantasy stars other than Cairo Santos and an unexpected one in Albert Wilson, who caught 4-of-6 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Spencer Ware hurt his ribs and was limited after getting off to a nice start, and Charcandrick West had a big 63-yard touchdown called back due to Travis Kelce being Travis Kelce. Ware’s injury makes this committee hard to deal with, because it looked like Ware was taking the lead this week until he was hurt. But no, I think it will remain split fairly evenly.

Philip Rivers led the Chargers in fantasy points with eight. He put together a valiant effort at the end to try to tie up the game, but fell short and with just three total points. Injuries have decimated this team and it’s fantasy possibilities.

Including the kicker and defense, the Jets gave us seven different fantasy entities in double-digit fantasy points. That’s a tough order to fill, especially in standard leagues.

Ryan Fitzpatrick led the way and hit 20-plus fantasy points for the third straight game. This comes after getting to 20 only once in his previous 10 games. He is on a roll and is using his offensive weapons to their fullest.

Brandon Marshall remains the best offensive weapon Fitzpatrick has, and it showed once again, as he caught 6-of-10 targets for 125 yards and one touchdown. That touchdown came on a quick snap after the Titans were slow to get set up, but you take what you’re given. Marshall now has six games in a row with a touchdown and 11 on the season.

Eric Decker has only one 100-yard game this season, but has averaged 73 yards per game to go along with his, now, nine touchdowns. He only has three of 12 games in which he hasn’t caught a touchdown. This week, Decker hit his average, catching 7-of-10 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.

Marcus Mariota completed 21-of-39 passes for 274 yards and an interception. That’s not so great. But he had 20 fantasy points. Whaaa? Oh, it says here he caught a 41-yard touchdown. That’s not normal, and it’s also something you can’t count on ever happening again in his career.

The Rams won. That’s pretty much a miracle unto itself. But they did win with defense and the rushing ability of Todd Gurley, which is very much in the realm of possibility, even though most of us didn’t think we’d see it again this season.

Gurley was completely stuffed in the first half, but broke out in a big way in the second half, and finished the day with 16 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown. St. Louis’ new offensive coordinator made getting the ball to Gurley a priority, and hopefully after totaling six fantasy points the last two weeks, Gurley is back on track.

The Rams’ defense was the only other double-digit fantasy scorer, with Tavon Austin finishing second to Gurley’s 26 points, with five points. Matthew Stafford came into this game playing well, but that was not the case this week. He did manage to scrape together some points in catch up mode, but overall he was not making good throws and put his team behind early with a bad pick-six.

Golden Tate ended up the beneficiary of Detroit’s last-ditch effort to come from behind, as he caught both of Stafford’s touchdown passes, while Calvin Johnson had his only reception with less than two minutes remaining in the game.

Derek Carr completed 12-of-29 passes for 135 yards and two touchdowns. That is a pitiful looking stat line, but the two touchdowns led his team to victory, as he showed great poise in Mile High Stadium. He continues to show signs of greatness, while also signs of, “what are you doing?”

There weren’t many yards to go around in this one, so the touchdowns that went to Mychal Rivera and Seth Roberts were the only real fantasy scores other than the Raiders’ defense.

Amari Cooper has regressed in the second half of the season, and it showed up this week as he was unable to catch any of the eight targets he saw. The Broncos are, of course, an incredible pass defense, but Cooper had opportunities to make at least a couple receptions and couldn’t. The rookie wall is real, but Cooper has also had trouble hanging onto passes all season.

Despite completing 35-of-51 passes for 308 yards, Brock Osweiler couldn’t get his team into the end zone at home against the Raiders. He held the ball too long and was unable to hit anyone deep. He ended up getting sacked five times, all by Khalil Mack.

Demaryius Thomas had a nice PPR game, catching 10-of-14 targets for 95 yards, but I’d wager all four of those incompletions were drops or near drops. He also fumbled and just was not good, despite the decent numbers.

Eddie Lacy rushed 24 times for 124 yards and a touchdown, and James Starks rushed 11 times for 71 yards and a score while securing 4-of-4 targets for 32 yards and another touchdown. Both performances were great, but Lacy’s was especially nice to see after he was benched last week. These two will still split work, but Lacy will be given the lead-back opportunities.

Randall Cobb had his best game in a while, which isn’t saying all that much, but he secured 8-of-12 targets for 81 yards. There’s a good chance that the play-calling duties reverting back to Mike McCarthy helped that connection between Aaron Rodgers and Cobb return a bit.

Darren McFadden rushed nine times for 111 yards. That’s not too shabby. His backup Robert Turbin rushed seven times for 51 yards, including a touchdown. The Cowboys were only down one touchdown after Turbin’s score with 8:25 left in the third quarter, but somehow these two only totaled 16 rushing attempts, despite completely running roughshod over Green Bay’s run “defense.”

Matt Cassel completed 13-of-29 passes for 114 yards and an interception. That’s a pitiful 3.9 yards per pass attempt and 8.7 yards per completion, while McFadden and Turbin averaged 10 yards per rushing attempt. I’m at a loss.

Dez Bryant isn’t even rosterable with Matt Cassel at quarterback.

Tom Brady completed 22-of-30 passes for 226 yards and two touchdowns. It was his lowest yardage output of the season, but only his fourth-lowest fantasy output. He has only had one game with one touchdown pass this season; the rest have all been two or more. I don’t think you can say that about any other quarterback in the league.

Rob Gronkowski returned and returned to his normal dominance, securing all four of his targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. He now has 10 touchdowns on the season, becoming the third player in NFL history to reach 10 touchdowns in three of their first five seasons. Gronkowski also became the first tight end in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in three seasons. He’s just 26 years old.

Brian Hoyer was harassed all game and ended up leaving after getting sacked for the fifth time. There’s a decent chance he will be in the concussion protocol, and he has just suffered a concussion a few weeks ago. I expect we’ll see T.J. Yates next week against the Colts.

The Texans had no offensive players top five fantasy points.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 14, 2015

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