Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 5, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Bears 18, Chiefs 17
Jamaal Charles in all likelihood tore his ACL in this game and is out for the season. It isn’t official as I type this, but he went down while making a cut and not being touched. That usually is not a good thing. This is, of course, a huge blow to anyone with Charles on his or her fantasy team.

After Charles went down, it was Charcandrick West getting seven carries for 31 yards and two targets, with one catch for five yards. Knile Davis on the other hand, had two carries for two yards. These options aren’t great, but West will be the player to pick up, but Davis could easily split time with him.

After Charles left the game, Kansas City’s offense stalled and the Bears were able to comeback and win the game. Without his play-making ability, it will be imperative that Smith get the ball to Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Smith did a good job of targeting Maclin and has now for most of the season, so Maclin should be able to retain value, even with the offense’s engine gone, but Kelce could go either way. I’m going to hope for the best and say Kelce’s production goes up though.

The Bears were without Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, so Martellus Bennett saw a team-high 11 targets, but had a couple drops and caught only four for 32 yards. In the end, it was Marquess Wilson and Matt Forte who stepped up with nice games. Wilson has ability and could be a nice add in fantasy, but it will all depend on when Jeffery and Royal return. In deeper leagues, I’d add Wilson, but in normal-sized leagues, I’d hold off.

So far, Matt Forte has only had one game in which he failed to break double-digit fantasy points, which was against the Seahawks when he rushed for 74 yards and had no receptions with Jimmy Clausen at the helm. With Cutler leading the way, Forte’s yet to have less than 105 total yards in any game, while scoring two touchdowns. He continues to be one of the safest fantasy players in the league.

Bengals 27, Seahawks 24
Andy Dalton is a fantasy juggernaut so far this season. A gingery juggernaut. Coming into this week, he ranked second in fantasy points for quarterbacks and was six behind Aaron Rodgers. Today, he outscored Rodgers 26-14 as he completed 30-of-44 passes for 331 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing seven times for 18 yards and another touchdown. He didn’t look great under pressure from the Seahawks’ rush, for much of the game, but gathered his huevos in a basket and went to work in the fourth quarter to bring his team back from a 17-point deficit. Now with three fantasy games over 20 points and none under 17, Dalton has been the most consistent quarterback in fantasy next to Tom Brady and is on must-start status.

That goes the same with Tyler Eifert, who took advantage of Richard Sherman paying close attention to A.J. Green and caught 8-of-12 targets for 90 yards and two touchdowns. This is why Dalton’s consistency has skyrocketed. It used to be, if you took Green out of the game, Dalton was in trouble. Now with some maturity and a great secondary target in Eifert, down games won’t be the norm.

The running back situation in Cincinnati has actually come into some clarity, but is still complicated. Gio Bernard has shown himself to be the better player than Jeremy Hill this season and continues to out-touch him, but Hill is going to keep getting goal-line looks, and if the Bengals were to get a nice lead, he could be used to ice games. I’d start Bernard over Hill for the most part going forward.

Thomas Rawls was the fantasy asset to have for the Seahawks in this one as he rumbled for a 69-yard touchdown and totaled 169 yards rushing. He looked strong all day and did his best Marshawn Lynch impression. Rawls, of course, is a must-pick-up or hold at the point, even with Lynch most likely returning sooner than later.

Hey! Jimmy Graham led the team in targets. Now, Seattle is getting the idea. Oh wait, he had just five targets and caught three for 30 yards. Hmmm, totally worth it.

Falcons 25, Redskins 19
Jamison Crowder tied Pierre Garcon for the team lead in targets with eight, but Crowder caught all eight of his for 87 yards, while Garcon caught three for 51 yards. It’s looking more and more like Crowder might be the possession receiver Cousins needs.

Derek Carrier caught 2-of-3 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown with Jordan Reed out. Carrier showed plenty of speed and ability, and with more targets could be a fantasy asset. Reed’s history of concussions is concerning, and he could easily miss a handful of games. The way Cousins has targeted his tight ends in the past has me ready to pick up Carrier in most leagues.

The three-headed running back monster was in full force against the Falcons, but as a whole, it was bottled up. Matt Jones was the lead back in this group this week after barely touching the ball last week. He ran the ball 11 times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 1-of-2 targets for 17 yards. Chris Thompson was second in touches with six receptions on seven targets for 33 yards and three carries for 15 yards, and Alfred Morris ran the ball eight times for 15 yards. I’m sure Morris will have a touchdown here and there, but he’s droppable at this point, and it’s nearly impossible to start any of Washington’s running backs with any optimism.

Devonta Freeman has supplanted Julio Jones as the offensive engine of the Falcons of late, and he continued his insane pace with 27 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown, plus added seven receptions on eight targets for 44 yards. Tevin Coleman returned, but saw just two carries for three yards. If you weren’t a believer yet, it’s time to just jump in, the water is warm and teeming with fantasy points.

Jacob Tamme actually led all Falcons’ receivers in this game with eight receptions on ten targets for 94 yards. This is most likely due to Julio Jones’ tight hamstring and Leonard Hankerson missing much of the first half with a rib injury. Tamme may start getting more consistent looks going forward, but he is still far down in the pecking order of this offense as long as Jones and Hankerson don’t miss any games.

Bucs 38, Jaguars 31
Blake Bortles had never thrown over two touchdowns in a game until he threw four today. His team still lost, but he played well, completing 22-of-33 passes for 303 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. He’s now had a nice stretch of usable fantasy games, averaging 20.25 standard fantasy points over the last four games. Bortles’ll be inconsistent, of course, but he has some nice weapons in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas.

Allen Hurns had yet another big day with 116 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. That’s three games in a row with a touchdown and has averaged six receptions for 100.6 yards per game during that stretch. As long as the Jaguars’ defense continues to falter, the offense will need to keep taking shots down field.

T.J. Yeldon finally got into the end zone with a touchdown reception and totaled 63 yards on 16 touches. It’s still a disappointing line against the Tampa defense and probably his ceiling for most games. He did tweak his groin and left the game late, but he says it isn’t serious. Bernard Pierce, Toby Gerhart and Corey Grant all got a touch, so until Denard Robinson returns, I wouldn’t even bother with a Jaguars running back not named Yeldon.

Doug Martin was the story in this game as he ran 24 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns and also caught 3-of-3 targets for 35 yards and another touchdown. After failing to find the end zone in his first three games, he’s now found it four times in his last two. Charles Sims also had a big day with 136 total yards and isn’t going away. Martin will need the game script to be in his favor, i.e. a lead or at least close so Sims doesn’t move in for hurry up, but he has looked unbelievably good, and it’s going to be tough keeping the ball out of his hands.

Jameis Winston managed to not throw an interception, but with the running game performing so well, he threw his fewest passes with 19. At this point, he very much needs the run game to work so he isn’t called on to win the game.

Eagles 39, Saints 17
The Saints were blown out in this game, but that’s probably going to be close to the norm going forward, so we can learn a little about the Saints’ offense for fantasy going forward as well. First off, Drew Brees will throw the ball a lot for little chunks of yardage and it will add up over the course of the game. He’s no longer elite, but he should continue to have a decent floor as he tacks on garbage-time yardage.

Both Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks topped 100 yards in this game, but Snead did most of his damage throughout the game, while Cooks did his in pure garbage time. Snead had 11 targets and caught six for 141 yards, while Cooks had nine targets and caught five for 107 yards and a touchdown. There aren’t any other receivers who are going to sneak up on these two, so even though their team is dumpster fire-like, I still like them for fantasy moving forward.

Sam Bradford continues to make head scratching throws, and this week both of his interceptions were in the end zone. That’s bad business there, but he still was able to put together a decent fantasy game with touchdown passes to non-fantasy entities Josh Huff and Brent Celek. Bradford’s now had two decent fantasy games in a row, but both have come against poor pass defenses.

Bradford targeted 10 different players, with Riley Cooper and DeMarco Murray leading with eight each. Cooper caught an expected three for 32 yards, while Murray caught seven for 37 yards. This offense spreads things out so much, that even on 45 attempts and 32 completions, no receiver had more than eight targets or 78 yards.

The Eagles committed to the run and it worked, with Murray and Ryan Mathews both having big games. Murray was the workhorse with 20 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown, to go along with his seven receptions, and Mathews rushed eight times for 73 yards and a touchdown, and also caught three of three passes for 23 yards. It was fairly obvious that Mathews has more juice than Murray and probably should be playing ahead of him, but Murray did put up decent numbers as the offensive line was on point this week against the feeble New Orleans defense.

Browns 33, Ravens 30
So, how about this Josh McCown guy? In his last three games, he’s passed for 341, 356 and, today, 457 yards, while throwing two touchdowns in each game and adding a rushing touchdown in today’s. He’s breaking all kinds of Browns records, but more importantly, he’s putting up top fantasy numbers. His ascension into fantasy goodness has been helped along by his team giving up 30, 30 and 27 points in the last three games, which keeps him chucking the ball. The bad news is that McCown now gets a tough stretch of schedule where Cleveland takes on Denver at home, St. Louis on the road, Arizona at home and then the Bengals on the road. That’s a little nightmarish.

Gary Barnidge continues to put together nice games, and this week against Baltimore was probably his toughest matchup, and he caught 8-of-10 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown. He’s now caught a touchdown in each of his last three games and has averaged over 100 yards a game.

Both Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson were able to put up good numbers, Johnson in PPR and Crowell in any format. Johnson started the game, but both backs saw 15 touches. Duke has a little more upside as the receiving/committee back, but Crowell has a bit higher floor as the goal-line back.

Joe Flacco only completed 54 percent of his passes and threw for 210 yards and one touchdown, but was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks with two goal-line touchdowns. Last season, he had two rushing touchdowns all season and has averaged less than two per season in his career, so this was pretty fluky.

Over the first three games of the season, Justin Forsett totaled 165 yards on 51 touches. Over the last two games, he has 52 touches for 330 yards and a touchdown. Playing the defenses of the Steelers and the Browns doesn’t hurt, but he’s looked good and confident between the tackles, which helped him get a goal-line carry this week and his first touchdown of the year. Forsett did sprain his ankle late in this game, but it doesn’t sound like a bad injury. Keep any eye on it, as Buck Allen and Lorenzo Taliaferro would have some value if he sat.

Packers 24, Rams 10
You know a defense is real when it can go to Lambeau Field and intercept Aaron Rodgers twice and also cause him to fumble. Rodgers’ last turnover at home was in 1874, I believe. Of course, when your quarterback completes just 11-of-30 passes for 141 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions, like Nick Foles did, well, Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to let a few silly turnovers from keep his team out of the win column.

Foles was unbelievably awful, and his awfulness came while Todd Gurley was putting up 159 yards rushing on 30 carries. When you have a running back doing that to the opposition and you still throw four interceptions, well, you suck badly. But the good news is Todd Gurley is a stud, and it looks like no matter the score. he’s going to get plenty of work from Jeff Fisher.

Tavon Austin once again found the end zone this week, but only had two receptions on five targets for six yards and the touchdown. He’s so very hard to rely on in fantasy, but he’s also putting up numbers regardless.

This was Aaron Rodgers’ worst game in a while, throwing for 241 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 19 completions and 30 attempts. Of course, this St. Louis defense is not playing around and is going to be a nightmare for opposing teams, but with Jeff Fisher and Nick Foles leading the way, it probably won’t matter all that much.

Eddie Lacy is still trying to find his groove and facing the Rams was not the easiest path of discovery. Lacy rushed 13 times for just 27 yards and caught one pass for eight yards. He’s still a very good back and will turn things around. Next week at home against San Diego’s poor rush defense that will be coming off a short week might be the answer.

Bills 14, Titans 13
Tyrod Taylor needs to start playing before halftime, but thankfully his fantasy backers are forgiving when he runs for 76 yards and a touchdown, putting up 21 fantasy points, even though he was just 10-for-17 for 109 yards and a touchdown through the air. Even last week when he had his worst game of the season, he managed to keep from having an utterly disastrous game, when it looked like a disaster was coming. It’s not always pretty, but he’s getting it done.

Of the Bills’ 209 total yards, Taylor helped account for 175 of those. Buffalo’s offense was Taylor, and that’s not exactly what you want. Hopefully, Karlos Williams and/or LeSean McCoy will return soon, because the team needs a run game other than Taylor to move this offense.

The Titans on the other hand, sucked just as badly, well, worse, since they lost. Marcus Mariota had thrown multiple touchdown passes and 209+ yards in each of his first three games, but the Bills held him to 187 yards passing, no touchdowns and one interception this week. The only positive was his five rushing attempts for 47 yards. If Mariota can supplement his passing stats with a nice chunk of rushing yards going forward, he would have a much higher floor.

Antonio Andrews and Bishop Sankey both had 10 touches, with Andrews totaling 54 yards and a touchdown and Sankey totaling 43 yards and no touchdown. Andrews paid off for fantasy players, but he’s fools gold. I don’t see any real reason to roster Andrews other than as desperation filler during bye weeks.

Kendall Wright was not happy about his usage in this game as he saw six targets, catching three for 29 yards. Other slot receivers had done well against this Buffalo defense, so there was some hope, especially after Wright had a nice game against the Colts right before the bye. But the Titans spread the ball around with Justin Hunter and Delanie Walker seeing the same amount of targets. I agree with Wright that he should be the No. 1 target, and maybe, we’ll see that happen next week versus Miami after voicing his displeasure.

Cardinals 42, Lions 17
The Lions added some kerosene to their dumpster fire of a season this week as they turned the ball over six times to the Cardinals’ zero. Detroit also set a NFL record with 70 pass attempts between Dan Orlovsky and a benched Matthew Stafford. Together, they threw for 379 yards and still averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt. It was a game the now 0-5 Lions would sooner forget.

Ameer Abdullah is one of those Lions players who will need some short-term memory as he fumbled twice, losing one, but after his second fumble he was benched. Zach Zenner replaced him as the running down back, and Theo Riddick continued his receiving duties. With Detroit’s winless record, it would seem fruitless to bench Abdullah for good, but we’ll have to see what transpires there. Zenner looked decent, but this offense is so lost right now that it’s difficult to like any short-yardage back on a team that just threw the ball 70 times.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are quite the opposite of a dumpster fire and rebounded from their first loss of the year last week, to dominate the Lions. Carson Palmer got back on track with another multi-touchdown game, his third game with three or more touchdown throws. He amazingly did that with just 14 pass attempts, completing 11 for 161 yards and the three touchdowns. This is his second big touchdown day with very few passing yards, and it’s frankly a little annoying. Palmer is burning hot right now, but his efficiency and his defense’s ability to take the ball away, has set him up for quick scores and then lots of running the ball with a big lead.

The Johnsons put up big numbers on the ground against the Lions, but the Johnsons’ numbers were split up enough so that neither put up huge numbers. Chris Johnson continued his great play with 11 carries for 103 yards, but new goal-line back, David Johnson, scored two rushing touchdowns on three carries, his only touches of the day. Then, during garbage time, Andre Ellington broke a long touchdown run off. There is too much talent in this backfield! Chris Johnson remains the back to own, but the fact that David Johnson got the goal line looks elevates his value.

Patriots 30, Cowboys 6
The Cowboys’ defense came to play, but their offense did not, and that gave the Patriots plenty of opportunities to grind Dallas down into dust. The Cowboys’ offense is in shambles without Dez Bryant and Tony Romo. Brandon Weeden completed 26-of-39 passes for 188 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. That’s not going to get the job done anywhere. Matt Cassel has a good chance to start next week after this outing, but that’s not the best news a Cowboys fan can here.

Not one of Dallas’ players hit double-digit fantasy points in this game, with kicker Dan Bailey leading the way with eight. Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle tied with seven, but in PPR, McFadden put up 16 points after catching 9-of-10 passes for 62 yards. It appears McFadden is the replacement for Lance Dunbar and could be useful in PPR leagues.

Tom Brady was harassed by the Cowboys’ defensive line for much of the game, but still was extremely efficient, completing 20-of-27 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns, while also scoring on a quarterback sneak at the goal line. He’s averaging the most fantasy points per game by any quarterback.

Dion Lewis is an unreal talent, who other teams passed over and are kicking themselves repeatedly for. He led the team in targets with 11 and caught eight of those for 59 yards and a touchdown; a touchdown that you’ve probably already seen a few times on your local media outlet. Lewis caught the ball in the flat about five yards from the goal line and then went on to make three tacklers miss on his way to six points. He also rushed the ball six times for 34 yards. If you picked Lewis up, you should be extremely happy.

The other receiving touchdown went to Julian Edelman, who led the team with 120 yards and a touchdown on just four receptions. He now has three touchdowns in four games, which is icing on his already tasty PPR cake.

Broncos 16, Raiders 10
The Broncos are 5-0, and Peyton Manning just threw no touchdowns and two interceptions against the Raiders. Those two things do not go together, until you look at how the Denver defense has been dominating. This week, a pick-six by Chris Harris was the only touchdown of the day for the Broncos, and it was all they needed.

The new lead back Ronnie Hillman ended up getting out-touched by C.J. Anderson, but neither was able to put up good fantasy numbers. The way this offense is playing right now is going to make it difficult to get one running back fantasy production, let alone two who are splitting work.

Demaryius Thomas did drop a touchdown pass, which might have rose-tinted those Manning glasses for another week. The best fantasy day came from Emmanuel Sanders, who caught 9-of-12 targets for 111 yards. He’s now averaging 6.8 receptions for 83.6 yards and has two touchdowns on the season, while Thomas is almost exactly the same at 7.6 receptions for 83.2 yards and just one touchdown. Those are solid numbers, but nothing compared to recent history. At this point, we should just be glad they are still getting those numbers with Manning’s arm troubles.

The Raiders were contained in most aspects of the game, with Marcel Reece the only player to hit double-digit fantasy points as he found the end zone and caught 7-of-8 targets for 49 yards. We did see a lot of Reece and not that much Latavius Murray in the second half. It appears Murray may have tweaked something, but after getting benched last week in Chicago, it’s not completely clear.

David Carr had his moments, but Denver’s pass rush, even with DeMarcus Ware injured, was too much for him to overcome. He completed 26 of 39 passes for 249 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The interception was returned for the game-winning touchdown, but wasn’t entirely Carr’s fault, as the blitz was on and he went to his hot read, who hadn’t noticed the blitz.

Giants 30, 49ers 27
Colin Kaepernick lives! Well, he lost again, but he turned things around after a string of hard to watch games. He completed 23-of-35 passes for 262 yards, two touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. Kaepernick also added three rushing attempts for 23 yards. In his last two games, he had thrown for a total of 227 yards, no touchdowns and five interceptions.

With Kaepernick playing well, it allowed the 49ers to keep the game close and in turn, allowed Carlos Hyde to get some work, which he took advantage of to the tune of 21 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown. We saw what Hyde could do in Week 1, but we also saw what early deficits do to his fantasy outlook. The inconsistent Kaepernick is going to make things tough for Hyde, but thankfully, Kap hasn’t lost all confidence and could continue to turn things around.

Eli Manning completed 41 passes on Sunday night. Forty-one! And that was on just 54 passes, which is a 76 percent completion rate. He also put up 441 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. And for Eli Manning, one interception on 54 attempts is darn good. He continues to put up good fantasy numbers consistently, Keep riding that crazy Eli to fantasy championshipville.

Odell Beckham Jr. led the team with 11 targets, catching seven for 121 yards and a touchdown. He did hurt his hamstring in this game, but came back out late as a decoy, which actually helped. I can’t say I’m too ecstatic about this hamstring injury for Beckham, but hopefully it’s minor. The Giants also lost Rueben Randle for much of this game with a hamstring injury of his own.

While receivers were dropping like mosquitoes in a DDT blanket, Shane Vereen was catching passes right, left, down the center and a little toward the rear. He ended up with eight receptions on eight targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. He also ran the ball five times for 24 yards. This all comes after getting no receptions and just 11 rushing attempts over the previous two weeks. This kind of usage is what destroys a young fantasy football analyst’s fragile psyche. Maybe the best news for Vereen is that Andre Williams had three carries for zero yards. If we can get this to be solely the Rashad Jennings and Vereen show, maybe we could get some more consistent usage.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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