Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 13, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Seahawks 38, Vikings 7
Russell Wilson backed up his big games against San Francisco and Pittsburgh with yet another big game, this time in Minnesota, which should have been a bit tougher. He now has averaged 30 fantasy points per game over his last three, after hitting 20 fantasy points just once in his previous nine games. Wilson now gets Baltimore and Cleveland before facing the Rams’ depleted defense in Week 16. There’s no reason to sit him going forward.

Doug Baldwin has helped Wilson out a lot since their Week 9 bye week. Since then, Baldwin has caught 24 passes for 433 yards and six touchdowns. He has shown signs of fantasy relevance in the past, but he’s always shrunk back down. This four-game stretch is the best in his career, and he’s getting enough targets to feel good about starting him from here on out.

Tyler Lockett had a good game, catching all seven of his targets, which tied Baldwin for the team lead, for 90 yards. Lockett’s going to be tough to rely on in fantasy, but he is still not seeing enough targets on average to feel safe about.

The Vikings remained one-dimensional, and the Seahawks crushed that dimension into a black hole this week, as they stopped Adrian Peterson cold. Peterson totaled 24 yards on 12 touches. That was the end of any inkling of a chance the Vikings had in this one. Going forward you, of course, still throw Peterson out there, but there’s not much else to mine from this team fantasy-wise.

Bengals 37, Browns 3
Andy Dalton didn’t have to do too much in this blowout, but he ended up with a nice fantasy line anyway, with the help of his third rushing touchdown on the year. Those rushing scores have helped bolster an already great fantasy season for Dalton. He only threw the ball 19 times, but ended up with 23 fantasy points. That’s a tough order to fill.

A.J. Green led the way on offense, catching 5-of-6 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown. After a couple down stretches, Green has three touchdowns in his last two games and is again living up to his top fantasy receiver billing.

With Tyler Eifert out and few targets to go around, Marvin Jones was the second target with five, of which he caught all five for 55 yards and a touchdown. When Eifert returns, it gets a little tougher to rely on Jones though.

Jeremy Hill rushed the ball 22 times for 98 yards and a touchdown. He got the bulk of the work with the early and big lead, while Gio Bernard got just six touches. The Bengals would rather Hill lead the way, because that means they have the lead. If they are behind, we’ll still see Bernard with a big role.

Austin Davis wasn’t very good for the Browns. That’s not surprising of course. He did target Brian Hartline 11 times, of which Hartline caught eight for 83 yards. This seems like something we could get on for fantasy, but we also may have Johnny Manziel back under center soon. I’m not adding Cleveland players to my fantasy teams at this juncture.

Dolphins 15, Ravens 13
Ryan Tannehill threw for 86 yards as Lamar Miller and the run game took precedent. Miller had 20 carries for the first time since 2013 and rushed for 113 yards and caught one pass for five yards. It looks safe to once again start him with confidence.

Rookie DeVante Parker led the Dolphins in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, with three receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. That’s 73 percent of all of Miami’s passing yards. He now has a touchdown in his last two games and should be worth owning in fantasy. Of course, the new run-oriented attack and when Jarvis Landry doesn’t have Lardarius Webb on him, could hurt Parker’s targets moving forward. Matt Schaub has now thrown a pick-six in six of his last nine starts. Besides being multiplies of three, those numbers aren’t fluky; they are a disturbing pattern that Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh might continue going forward.

Schaub moved the ball fairly well, for being Matt Schaub, but he was still a checkdown specialist, which helped Buck Allen to a massive 12 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. With Schaub and these tough matchups coming up, I think Allen in PPR may be the only fantasy play you can feel somewhat good about from the Ravens.

Bills 30, Texans 21
Tyrod Taylor has now put up back-to-back big games against tough defenses after a poor stretch of performances coming out of the bye. If you can average over 26 fantasy points against Kansas City and Houston, you can do it against just about any team.

Taylor only completed 11 passes, but three went to Sammy Watkins for 109 yards and a touchdown. These kinds of games are scary, but Taylor and Watkins look to have some chemistry now. I think they keep their value going forward.

Brian Hoyer goes up to Buffalo and has a much better fantasy game than he did at home against the Saints last week. Hoyer really needs to be losing to have good fantasy value. That’s the way it is with most quarterbacks, but the coaching staff really, really doesn’t want Hoyer throwing the ball with a lead. With the Patriots and a possibly Andrew Luck-led Colts team, there’s a decent shot Hoyer will be chucking it.

DeAndre Hopkins was the third target for the Texans this week. I doubt that has happened this season. He still managed to catch 5-of-9 targets for 88 yards and a score. Hopkins is a fantasy stud no matter the opponent, but like with Hoyer, getting behind does help a bit.

Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts led the way in targets for Houston, while Shorts was the more productive of the two. They’ll remain tough to pick between going forward.

49ers 26, Bears 20
Blaine Gabbert only completed 18-of-32 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown, but also rushed six times for 75 yards and another touchdown. That gave him a nice 24-point fantasy game, which I didn’t think would ever happen. He’s still going to check down and manage the game, but he’s shown an ability to make positive plays without turning the ball over on a consistent basis.

Shaun Draughn finally got into the end zone, with a 1-yard touchdown run, and even though his rushing numbers look pitiful, he also caught 5-of-6 targets for 50 yards, to give him a nice boost in PPR leagues. He now has 22 receptions over the last four games.

The Bears put on a pitiful display for a team that had been playing better of late, and Jay Cutler was at the lead of that ineptitude, as he completed 18-of-31 passes for 202 yards, no touchdowns and one interception, which was returned for a touchdown. When Jay goes full Jay, he goes full Jay.

Matt Forte led the way in fantasy with 21 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown, and caught five passes for 39 yards. Jeremy Langford ended the day with 12 carries for 59 yards and two receptions for nine yards. This looks more likely to be the usage split than what we saw in Forte’s first game back from injury last week.

Titans 42, Jaguars 39
This was the game all daily fantasy players wished they had invested more heavily in, with the two teams totaling 81 points. Both quarterbacks had huge games, with Marcus Mariota putting up 35 fantasy points and Bortles with 32. Mariota punched his total up with an 81-yard touchdown scramble and finished with nine rushing attempts for 112 yards and a touchdown. He has been rushing more of late and now has two touchdown runs in his last three games. If he truly adds that to his arsenal, he’s got Cam Newton upside.

Delanie Walker continued his consistent play, catching 8-of-12 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown. He now has three games in a row with six or more receptions and 90-plus yards receiving. As Tennessee’s No. 1 target, he can easily be relied on.

Dorial Green-Beckham had the best game of his short career, catching 5-of-6 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. That topped his previous high in fantasy by 9 points, but the Titans won’t face the Jaguars every week, and he remains a risky play as the deep threat with limited targets.

Blake Bortles threw for 325 yards and five touchdowns, and even more amazingly, no interceptions. He hadn’t not thrown an interception since Week 4. Bortles still makes some head-scratching throws, but he can also make some unbelievable throws in the process. He gets the Colts, Falcons and Saints to end the fantasy season. Bortles’ll be hard to fade in most leagues.

Young fantasy stud Allen Robinson solidified his breakout season with a breakout game, catching 10-of-15 targets for 153 yards and two touchdowns. He now has eight games in a row with double-digit fantasy pints in non-PPR leagues and, with four games left, has 65 receptions for 1,080 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Bucs 23, Falcons 19
Jameis Winston had a below-average game as a passer, but once again, found the end zone with his feet and helped save his fantasy day. That gives him five rushing touchdowns this season, which has really boosted his not-great stats this year and hopefully continues.

Doug Martin was the workhorse in this game with 25 carries for 95 yards, but the big news is that he scored a touchdown! He hadn’t since Week 5. The aforementioned rushing touchdowns from Winston have turned Martin into Jonathan Stewart. Martin gets the Saints next week.

Mike Evans has settled into a much less targeted receiver since Vincent Jackson returned, but has also caught a couple touchdowns since then. It’s a bit of a trade off when factoring receptions and yards, but the efficiency is better.

Kicker Shayne Graham led the Falcons with 16 fantasy points, which tells you about all you need to know.

Matt Ryan was awful all game, with his most efficient pass going to Devonta Freeman for short yardage, as he targeted him 11 times, in which Freeman caught 10 for 56 yards. Ryan targeted Julio Jones 17 times, but he only ended up with eight receptions for 93 yards. Jones is going to waste in this offense.

Cardinals 27, Rams 3
Carson Palmer completed 26-of-40 passes for 356 yards and two touchdowns in a game that wasn’t all that competitive. The Cardinals had some trouble converting in the red zone early on, but since they pretty much set up camp there, they got the lay of the land and conquered. Palmer has six games with over 350 yards passing and is an elite play each week.

Michael Floyd returned this week to full health and caught 7-of-12 passes for 104 yards. He led the team in targets, but John Brown had a few more yards and Larry Fitzgerald one more reception. This is easily the best trio of wide receivers in the league right now, and if they can all stay healthy, it will hurt their individual upsides a bit, but they will dominate.

David Johnson ran 22 times for 99 yards, making those in 100-yard-bonus leagues weep. He also caught two passes for 21 yards and a touchdown. Kerwynn Williams took over for Johnson as the game was out of hand and played well in relief, rushing nine times for 59 yards and a touchdown. Johnson should remain a good fantasy option, even when Andre Ellington returns.

The Rams’ offense is horrible, no matter who is quarterbacking, and this week was no different. At this point, it’s hard to trust Todd Gurley as a starter, let alone the stud No. 1 running back he was just a few weeks ago because the quarterback play has devolved into a primordial ooze of ineptitude.

Jets 23, Giants 20
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 36-of-50 passes for 390 yards and two touchdowns. He has seemed to actually get better as the season has gone on, and with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to throw to, it’s hard to see Fitzpatrick throwing up any huge duds.

In a tightly contested game, Bilal Powell saw 13 targets, catching eight for 91 yards and a touchdown, while Chris Ivory totaled 15 touches for 69 yards. Ivory was also used in the passing game, catching 5-of-5 targets, but for just 22 yards. There’s little doubt Powell is the better receiver, and in games where the Jets trail, he’ll get targets, but that’s a tough call to make each week.

Both Decker and Marshall topped 100 yards, but Marshall was once again the start, catching 12-of-13 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown. It was a masterful display for the 10th-year receiver.

Once again, the Giants best player was Odell Beckham Jr. He caught 6-of-11 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, and now has five straight games with 100 yards or more. He’s proving time and time again that he is in the conversation for best wide receiver in the league, and even though he’s missed four games and hasn’t played the four to end this season, he has the record for most receptions in a player’s first two seasons. Over the next four games, he’ll be stalking Randy Moss’ yardage record.

Broncos 17, Chargers 3
The Broncos didn’t need to do much on offense with their defense playing well and the Chargers running with fourth-stringers. Brock Osweiler had a quick touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas early on, but that was all she wrote for Denver touchdowns. This offense is going to be extremely conservative, especially when the Broncos can score on defense like they did this week.

C.J. Anderson started off hot, but injured his ankle and Ronnie Hillman took over. It appears Anderson’s injury isn’t long-term, but we’ll need more info. If it does keep him out next week, Hillman makes for a great start against Oakland.

Demaryius Thomas led the way, catching a team high six passes on six targets for 61 yards and a touchdown, while Emmanuel Sanders saw eight targets, but only corralled three for 19 yards. As you well know, this offense can no longer carry multiple fantasy receivers on a consistent basis.

The Chargers were dropping like flies, which is their modus operandi at this point. They lost Dontrelle Inman and Stevie Johnson to injuries, which pushed Javontee Herndon into a starter’s role next to Malcom Floyd. Add in the already depleted offensive line and a fumbling Melvin Gordon, and you have yourself, well, not much.

Chiefs 34, Oakland 20
Alex Smith out together his second good fantasy game in a row, and continues to do so with his rushing ability. He only threw for 162 yards, but tossed two touchdowns and ran for another. Smith always carries risk due to his low yardage numbers, which then usually translate into fewer touchdowns, but in good matchups, he finds ways to give you a decent fantasy floor.

Jeremy Maclin was Smith’s favorite target by far this week. He saw 10 targets to the second-highest of three by three other players. Maclin caught nine of those for 95 yards and two touchdowns, and now has 18 receptions for 255 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games.

The breakdown of rushing usage between Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West is a little pitiful since they only ran the ball 16 times combined. Neither did much, but Ware got into the end zone. This split is not going to be advantageous to either back.

Every time I think we can trust Derek Carr, he flops. This week was a combination of poor play and multiple drops from his receivers. He ended up throwing three interceptions, one that was returned for a touchdown. He gets Denver next week, so at least we don’t have to contemplate too hard about starting him.

Panthers 41, Saints 38
Cam Newton once again put his team on his back to pull out a victory, this time completing 28-of-41 passes for 331 yards, five touchdowns and an interception. He’s now had three 30-plus fantasy-point games in his last five starts. He is still second to Tom Brady in overall fantasy points, but is closing in on him.

The second-leading fantasy scorer for the Panthers this week was Ted Ginn Jr., who caught 5-of-10 passes for 80 yards and two touchdowns. That sounds pretty good until you see that he dropped, flat out dropped, two 50-plus-yard touchdowns.

Jonathan Stewart totaled 113 yards and a touchdown on 24 touches. He now has eight straight games in which he’s rushed 20 or more times. There is a good chance that we will see his workload reduced now that the Panthers have clinched their division and are undefeated with a relatively easy schedule to finish the season.

Drew Brees managed to keep his home/away statistical splits intact after putting up 282 yards, three touchdowns and one interception at home against Carolina’s defense. It’s pretty amazing what the dome brings out in him.

Brees was also down his No. 2 receiver, Willie Snead, and had trouble finding a competent replacement. Brandon Coleman put together a nice game, catching 4-of-6 passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, but also had a killer drop.

Eagles 35, Patriots 28
Darren Sproles out-touched DeMarco Murray 19 to eight, which worked as Sproles totaled 100 yards to Murray’s 24, but it was weird to be sure. Murray is only startable because he’s been seeing so many touches, but this game puts all of that in doubt moving forward, especially if Ryan Mathews can return from his brain injury.

The Eagles didn’t do much on offense, as they won this game through defense and special teams. Jordan Matthews did catch his third touchdown in the last five games, but also only had six targets. In this upset win over the Patriots, I’m not sure we can take much from this game for future fantasy usage, except to say, who knows?

The Patriots had much more productive fantasy player, as Tom Brady threw for 312 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions and one rushing touchdown, while also catching a 36-yard pass from Danny Amendola!

Danny Amendola and Scott Chandler both had nice games, and both caught touchdowns, but James White had a great game, especially in PPR leagues, as he caught 10-of-13 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown. He looks like he’ll continue to be the man when the Patriots are in pass mode.

Steelers 45, Colts 10
The Steelers took it to the Colts on Sunday night in a big way. Pittsburgh totaled 522 offensive yards – 364 through the air and 158 on the ground – and put up 45 points on 71 total plays. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown did the bulk of the damage, but there were other fantasy players with points to spare. This offense is a fantasy goldmine when hitting on all cylinders.

Brown caught 8-of-11 targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns, and also returned a punt for a touchdown after Jacoby Jones was pretty much cut during the game after fumbling twice on returns. Why Brown was returning a punt in a shellacking like this one has yet to be answered.

Martavis “the Martian” Bryant caught 4-of-8 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown, including a 69-yard bomb. He now has 14 touchdown receptions on 57 receptions through 17 games in the NFL. He has some Randy Moss qualities that, if honed, could make him an elite receiver in this league.

DeAngelo Williams didn’t get into the end zone and lost a fumble, so his fantasy upside took two big hits there, but he put up nice numbers, rushing for 134 yards on 26 carries and catching five passes for another 31 yards.

Matt Hasselbeck came back to earth this week. He wasn’t blowing anyone away of course, but he was playing well and even had a decent fantasy game last week. This week was pretty much a disaster from start to finish, especially for Indianapolis’ receivers, who had no chance to do anything this week. The only bright spot was Frank Gore, who totaled 94 yards and one touchdown reception on 16 touches. The old man still has some juice.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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