Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 17, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Saints 20, Falcons 17
Drew Brees didn’t put up the numbers he had over the previous month, but he had another solid game, totaling 323 passing yards and a touchdown. And of course, this came on a bum foot from stepping on a fascist plant of some sort. Brees is an ancient 37 years old, but proved over this last month that he is still a top fantasy producer. It would be nice if he and Sean Payton stuck together, but whatever happens, Brees is still going to be a fantasy producer for a few more years.

Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead did little to zilcho in this game, but they both proved their worth as capable to very good starters in the NFL this season. Cooks’ 22 yards and Snead’s 35 sure didn’t help you in fantasy, but on the year, they were useful pieces and both are young, 22 and 23 respectively, and will continue to thrive in this league.

Tim Hightower finished the last four games of the season with 456 yards and four touchdowns, to help lead those who picked him off the waiver wire to fantasy glory. He is 30 years old and just isn’t a 16-game starter in the NFL, so there’s no need to pursue him in fantasy now, but it was nice to see him break out. The 26-year-old Mark Ingram, on the other hand, should be good to return next year as he’ll have plenty of time to recover from his torn rotator cuff, which also happens to not be an injury to his legs, a nice bonus for Ingram’s fantasy longevity.

Matt Ryan threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints, giving him 4,951 yards on the season, which will be the third-most in the league. If I told you that would happen, you’d probably feel fairly confident in a good fantasy season from Ryan and, of course, that would be incorrect. He’ll finish as the 19th-best fantasy quarterback in the NFL. If it weren’t for Julio Jones, Ryan would be Josh McCown.

Devonta Freeman blew up this year, and despite Atlanta’s steep decline as a team, he still played well, even when the Falcons weren’t scoring/winning. He beat out Tevin Coleman and, even though most running backs are tenuous for fantasy, should remain a top option as an every-down back on the fast track under the dome in Atlanta. This week against the Saints wasn’t his best effort on the season, but it showed just how versatile a fantasy scorer he is, as he totaled 99 yards and scored a touchdown as a receiver. Freeman finished the season with 14 touchdowns, which may be hard to reproduce next season, but his 73 receptions shouldn’t go away, making him a highly desirable for fantasy.

Julio Jones didn’t have the monster game we expected against New Orleans’ pitiful defense, but only because he didn’t get into the end zone. For any mortal, nine receptions for 149 yards would be worthy of an epic poem or two. Jones led the league in receiving yards with 1,871 and tied Antonio Brown in receptions with 136. Jones had 10 games with 9 or more receptions and will once again be a top pick in fantasy drafts. I expect he and the other stud receivers will all be first-round picks due to the turnover of fantasy running backs this year. I’m on board with that, but often a trend can open up value elsewhere. Zigging when others are zagging isn’t just fun, it can be profitable.

Bills 22, Jets 17

Besides helping the Steelers get into the playoffs, the Bills actually had an offense this year with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Now, I didn’t think Joe Flacco’s backup would suck, but winning a competition over Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel for a job managing a run-first, defensive-minded team, wasn’t an ideal spot for a fantasy quarterback, but Taylor showed plenty to be excited about this season. This week, we saw just how great a fantasy player he is – by his pitiful passing stats. Taylor completed 18-of-28 passes for 182 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Those aren’t getting you anywhere in fantasy, but he did keep from turning the ball over, while putting up a nice game on the ground, with 10 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown. That rushing touchdown is worth six points and those rushing yards are worth five. Right there, you have a base to build on, and even the piddly yardage numbers boost him up to 18 total points. That’s not winning you championships, but it’s also not killing you. He showed well as a passer more often than not and has one of the best young receivers in the game at his disposal. I’m on board.

Sammy Watkins had some nagging injuries and some suspect usage early in the season, but as seen against the Jets, the Bills began using him like a true No. 1 receiver in the second half of the year. On Sunday, he purchased Revis Island right out from under the star cornerback, catching 11-of-15 targets for 136 yards. Those 15 targets were more than half of Taylor’s attempts. Watkins finished the season with a 60/1,047/9 line on fewer than 100 targets. He was the only receiver to hit 1,000 yards with those sad target numbers, and it just goes to show you what his upside would be if he were targeted like many of the top receivers in the league. Watkins’ outlook is of course sky high, and with Taylor looking solid, I like this passing game to expand next year.

The running back situation was a mess in Week 17, but the Bills were also facing the Jets, who don’t give up rushing touchdowns. Mike Gillislee ran 24 times for just 28 yards, mostly after Karlos Williams went down with an injury. Before leaving with that knee injury, Williams had 27 total yards on nine touches and a goal-line score, which was only the third rushing touchdown the Jets had given up all season. Buffalo’s running back situation moving into next year looks like one of the best in the game, with LeSean McCoy leading the way.

McCoy was a disappointment as far as his nagging injuries are concerned, but the idea that maybe Chip Kelly thought he was on his decline didn’t come through when he was on the field. It by no means was a great year for Shady, with just 895 yards rushing, 292 yards receiving and five total touchdowns through 12 games, but at 27, going on 28, he still looked like a top back. He’ll most likely continue to share time with Karlos Williams, but when healthy, McCoy will remain the lead back.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still Ryan Fitzpatrick, as he showed with his horrendous blowing of what amounted to a playoff game, but he sure was able to up his game this season, especially in the second half of the year, when he went from game manager to game winner (and loser). His three interceptions and total choke job will linger, but if you wanted more, then you should have drafted Cam Newton. Fitzmagic ends this year as the 12th-best fantasy quarterback in overall points, but his real value this season came as a streaming option in Weeks 12 through 16, where he averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game. It appears he has won this job, and as long as Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are around, he’ll continue to have decent fantasy upside.

As far as Marshall and Decker are concerned, you are ecstatic with their production this season. Both are great receivers, but this team, run by a defensive-minded coach, did not seem equipped to dole out the passing numbers to keep both receivers consistently doused in fantasy points. That is, until they were and they did. Against the Bills, both Marshall and Decker scored touchdowns, something they did in the same game an amazing nine times this season. Marshall led the way, finishing the season as the third-best fantasy receiver with a 109/1,502/14 line, tied for the league lead in touchdowns, while Decker finished with a 80/1,027/12 line and ninth-overall in fantasy scoring for wide receivers.

If you had told me that Fitzmagic was going to be the starter all 16 games and the Jets would have one of the top defenses in the league AND they would have two receivers in the Top-Nine fantasy producers, I would have punched my own face off. But that happened, and the question is, will the Jets have that kind of efficiency moving forward? Of Fitzpatrick’s 31 touchdown passes, 26 went to Decker and Marshall. That’s putting most of your eggs in one basket and I don’t see anyone else stepping up if either of those two are injured, so the dynamic is tenuous, but if Decker and Marshall can keep that dynamic strong, there’s no reason they can’t have another good season next year, but there won’t be any discounts.

The Jets’ running back situation was an odd one this week, with Stevan Ridley getting the start and the bulk of the carries with Bilal Powell out, but with Chris Ivory not. Ivory was used as the passing-down back and must have still been nursing a knee injury that limited him in practice. Ridley was ineffective, while Ivory finished with 81 yards on six carries. This was either a very poor decision by coach Todd Bowles to start Ridley or Ivory was more hurt than he looked. Ivory will turn 28 this spring and is a free agent, while Powell, who came on strong toward the end of the season, is 27 and also a free agent. That leaves this situation very much up in the air and one to keep an eye on, because whoever lands as the lead back here, will be a top fantasy contributor.

Redskins 34, Cowboys 23

This game was just an exhibition game, as the Cowboys laid down for Kirk Cousins, allowing him to throw for three touchdowns in the first quarter before he left to rest up for the playoffs. The question for us fake-football players is just how good is Kirk Cousins? We know how bad he can be, which is pretty darn bad, but the corner he turned this year was a sharp one for his fantasy production. He finished as the eighth-best fantasy quarterback, and that was after averaging just 11.5 fantasy points through his first six games. But even though he was still somewhat inconsistent, he averaged over 21 fantasy points for the remaining 10 games. At the very least, Cousins has won himself the starting job for next season, which makes him a worthwhile hold in dynasty, unless you can get something worthwhile for him. Even if he continues to play well, quarterbacks are devalued in one-quarterback leagues, and any hype for a guy who could easily fall back down to earth, is worth using for your own gain.

Besides Cousins, the only truly stud fantasy player was tight end Jordan Reed, who has had trouble staying on the field, but missed just two games this year and finished as the second-best fantasy tight end in the league with an 87/952/11 line. Hopefully, you can still get him at some kind of “injury discount” due to people almost always overestimating what players are “injury prone.”

Reed was the No. 1 receiver, but when he was healthy(ish), Weeks 9-15, DeSean Jackson was a Top-20 fantasy receiver. His presence helped this Washington offense immensely, as seen by Cousins’ numbers during that stretch as well.

The running back situation in The District, is not the best, as Alfred Morris just isn’t versatile enough for the offense and Matt Jones can’t seem to hold onto the ball. The two will continue to share work in the playoffs, but Morris is a free agent and is probably out the door. Jones has ability and could end up as the lead back going into next season, but a lot could happen between now and then. I do think I saw enough out of Jones in his rookie year to have some hope for him moving forward.

The Cowboys were a bad team without Tony Romo and a healthy Dez Bryant this season. Would Dallas have been a good team with them? Maybe, but the Cowboys, for sure, would have been able to support many more fantasy players.

Of course, both Romo and Bryant will be good to go next season, which will help whomever else is starting, but who will that be? Darren McFadden returned from ineptitude to post a 239/1,089/3 rushing line and a 40/328/0 receiving line, with most coming from Week 7 on. McFadden will be back next season, but will most likely have some competition in training camp. He’ll turn 29 in August ,and the Cowboys will be looking for youth at the position and maybe some free agent fodder. The fact that he was able to reach 1,000 yards rushing and put up a respectable 4.55 yards per carry is a testament to his and the offensive line’s ability, because Dallas never had a quarterback who kept defenses honest. If things fall the right way, McFadden could be the lead back to start next season, but it isn’t a lock.

Colts 30, Titans 24

The Colts, much like the Cowboys, had their offense neutered by a quarterback injury. Yes, Andrew Luck was mostly bad this season, but even bad Luck is better than no Luck at all, especially for his teammates’ fantasy production.

Sunday’s game was meaningless, and we didn’t learn much of anything going forward from the Josh Freeman versus Zach Mettenberger and Alex Tanney matchup, other than the fact that Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota have no need to worry about their job security, which we already knew. So, yeah.

The Colts are still stacked in the passing game, with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief leading the way. We already knew Hilton’s ability, but Moncrief flashed his play-making chops more than once this season, and if there’s anyway to get him at a discount, after his numbers took a post-Luck hit, I’d be doing what I can to get him.

Frank Gore turns 33 in April, but does have $3 million guaranteed for next season. At times, he looked like his old self, but he finished the season under 1,000 yards rushing on 260 attempts on just 3.7 yards per carry. Of course, Andrew Luck would have helped spread defenses out, but the Colts will have trouble if they need Gore to lead the way all next season. He still can play and will be a worthy real-football player for them, but they’ll need to find some kind of complement to him for next season so they can keep his usage down to keep him fresh.

The Titans will get the No. 1 draft pick of the 2016 NFL Draft, which is better than their No. 2 pick from last season! Congrats! Last year, Tennessee took Marcus Mariota, and so far there’s still optimism that he’ll be the answer. He was uneven this season, as most rookie quarterbacks are wont to be, but showed plenty of ability, and for fantasy purposes, it was really good to see him use his running ability as the season went on. His upside is going to continue to rise.

This year was a lost one for wide receiver Kendall Wright, who was injured for much of the season and didn’t do much when he was on the field, totaling just 36/408/3 line in 10 games. He does have ability, but at this point, I’m putting him in “prove it” mode going forward.

Dorial Green-Beckham on the other hand, did prove quite a bit, at least for a raw rookie, who was drafted mostly on spec rather than polished ability. He finished with a 32/549/4 line and should go into next season as the No. 1 receiver, which is scary for the Titans, but exciting for fantasy players who think the Mariota-DGB connection could pay dividends in 2016. I’m cautiously optimistic and much will depend on how much hype Green-Beckham gets and where his ADP lands.

Lions 24, Bears 20

The Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford actually started playing well under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, who was inserted as interim coordinator in Week 10. In those eight games with Cooter, Stafford tossed 19 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. In the eight games before that, he had 13 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions. And he finished off the season with another solid game over the Bears, completing 28-of-39 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns. The schedule did favor the second half of the season, but we’ve seen Stafford have clunkers under any circumstances. He’ll finish as the ninth-best fantasy-points quarterback, and even though we wrote his fantasy ability off after Week 8, he’ll once again be worth owning next season.

Calvin Johnson is no longer the best wide receiver in the league, and he probably wouldn’t even be listed in too many pundits’ Top 10s, but he surely isn’t dead yet, as he finished with the 10th-most wide receiver fantasy points for 2015. The trouble in fantasy is, he still has the Megatron name recognition and will go slightly earlier than he should in drafts next season. The savvier the league, the better chance you’ll have at getting him for any kind of value. This season, he only topped 100 yards twice and was a glorified possession receiver, but a less-than-optimal Megatron is still a WR1 when healthy, as he was against the Bears to end the season catching 10-of-15 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown.

The running back situation in Detroit is a tough one for fantasy. The best news would be if Joique Bell, who has lost his ability to play at a top level, were let go. That would leave Ameer Abdullah and receiver/running back Theo Riddick, to man the position. Of course, the Lions can and will bring in other names, but those two could make for an effective duo. Abdullah was hindered all season by fumbling issues, but I never really worry about that. Adrian Peterson is a fumbler and he’s a soon-to-be hall of famer. Abdullah has the ability to make people miss, and I like him a lot, especially if he can be had cheaply after a slow rookie season. Riddick is not an effective runner, but did catch 80 passes this season, finishing as the 19th-best PPR back in the league. That’s his ceiling though, so don’t go crazy.

After only throwing eight interceptions on the season, Jay Cutler threw three in the season finale as he completed 17-of-23 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns. But, the 11 on the year were still easily his best total in any season he played more than 10 games. Cutler had a decent stretch of games in the middle of the season, and was much more controlled under Adam Gase’s offense, but he will end his 2015 campaign as the 21st fantasy quarterback. The loss of Kevin White for the year and Alshon Jeffery constantly being hurt, did not help Cutler, as well as injuries to Martellus Bennett, Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson. If Jeffery were to return (which is likely), along with a healthy Kevin White, I’d be on board the Cutler hype as a late-round sleeper next season. Unfortunately, offensive coordinator Gase will be one and done with the Bears, as he’ll most likely have a head-coaching job any day now. Either way, an older Cutler might have finally, maybe, learned to play within his limitations.

Matt Forte ended his tenure as a Chicago Bear on a good note, rushing 17 times for 76 yards and catching 3-of-3 targets for 34 yards and a touchdown. He’ll turn 31 in a few days, but doesn’t look like he’s lost a step. He’s never been a high-twitch guy and relies on his ability to make people miss organically rather than juking them out of their shorts. I look forward to seeing his landing spot in free agency. He probably will be part of a committee of some sort, but his receiving ability always gives him a leg up on other committee members.

Next season, it will be Jeremy Langford’s job to lose. He took a back seat to Forte in Week 17 since it was his final game for Chicago, but when Forte was injured, Langford was up to the task as the every down back. His talent level isn’t off the charts, but he has ability, and as a feature back, he’d be worth an early fantasy draft pick.

Steelers 28, Browns 12

The Steelers didn’t look great, but they managed to beat a bad Browns team to get into the playoffs, and once again we saw just how great the Ben Roethlisberger-to-Antonio Brown connection is, as Brown caught 13-of-17 targets for 187 yards and a touchdown. I could go on ad nauseam about how good Antonio Brown has been this season, but the fact that he has led all players in one-point per reception leagues over the last three seasons, says it all.

Ben Roethlisberger completed 24-of-36 passes for 349 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions on Sunday. He once again wasn’t sharp, but did manage to put together a nice fantasy game with the help of Brown. Roethlisberger couldn’t stay healthy this season, and it cost the Steelers and his fantasy backers. But when he was healthy and on this season, the potential fantasy points for him and his teammates were off the charts. Roethlisberger’ll be 34 at the start of next season and should have a good chunk of seasons left in the tank. With Antonio Brown turning 28 before next season and Martavis Bryant hopefully getting his game together next season, there’s no reason to stay away from any Pittsburgh player.

DeAngelo Williams injured his ankle in this game, but does appear optimistic for his chances to play next week. If he can’t go, the Steelers are down to the scrubs with Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman. For the season, Williams has been a Godsend for Pittsburgh. To start the year, he led the way with Le’Veon Bell suspended for the first two games and then again after Bell was injured. For the season, Williams’s rushing line was 200/907/11 and his receiving line was 40/367/0. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry and finished as the fourth-best running back in standard leagues. Of course, as long as Le’Veon Bell returns fully healthy, it’s Bell’s job, as he once again looked amazing, albeit in just five full games. Bell’s knee injuries are concerning, but Williams is on the wrong side of 32. The Steelers should keep him for next season, but that will most likely be the end of his tenure.

The Browns are a hot mess right now and there’s not much hope for the near future. Austin Davis predictably put up a dud against the poor Steelers defense and is useless. Cleveland’s quarterback position is up for grabs, but there aren’t many good quarterbacks out there wanting to grab it. Theteam’s best hope at the moment is probably to retain Johnny Manziel and let his legs keep him in games, while he develops as a passer. But the Browns could dump Manziel for being a lying liar and an all-around self-entitled dunce.

The running back situation is a bit more hopeful, with Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson both showing signs of above-average ability at times, with Johnson being the most likely third-down back, while Crowell will face some competition for early-down work as he’s been very inconsistent, despite his good flashes. Anyway you look at it though, this team is not set up to max out any player’s fantasy ceiling.

Gary Barnidge was the rock of this team, and even with Austin Davis flinging the ball around haphazardly on Sunday, Barnidge managed to catch 8-of-13 targets for 66 yards. On the season, he finished with a line of 79/1,043/9 and scored the third-most points of any tight end. The Barn Burner is a late bloomer, but his body of work this season speaks for itself. He’ll be heavily used again next season, no matter the quarterback

Dolphins 20, Patriots 10

The Dolphins knocked the Patriots out of the No. 1 seed and showed that they hadn’t completely given up. That was most notable with the play of Ryan Tannehill, who completed 25-of-38 passes for 350 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. This was Tannehill’s best game of the season unfortunately, as it came in Week 17 and was completely unexpected.

Coming into this season, Tannehill has improved steadily over his first three years and looked poised to put up good fantasy numbers in his second year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. The opposite happened. Of course, now we unfortunately have a glimmer of hope, as rookie DeVante Parker came on strong at the end of the year, with 22 receptions for 445 yards and three touchdowns over the final six games. Parker coupled with PPR savant Jarvis Landry, makes for a pretty imposing receiving group and Tannehill isn’t going anywhere just yet. Thankfully, Tannehill won’t be as hyped going into next season and could make for an upside backup on your fake team.

Lamar Miller continually showed his ability as a runner and receiver this season, but was continually underutilized by a team that very much needed this offense. He finished with a rushing line of 194/872/8 and a receiving line of 47/397/2. Amazingly enough, that put him at the sixth-most fantasy points for running backs this season, but this was an absolutely disastrous season for the position, and if you rostered Miller this year, you’d be hard pressed to feel good about how he was used. There is a very good chance that Miller heads off to greener pastures in free agency and, hopefully, to better usage. That should leave Jay Ajayi as the incumbent. Ajayi never really took off, but there were some runs that made you feel good about his ability. He’ll be a risky pick as his ADP will be high is Miller is gone, but he has potential.

New England’s story this year is all about injuries, as is the loss to Miami on Sunday. The Patriots are depleted on the offensive line and with their offensive skill positions, and it led to Tom Brady completing 12-of-21 passes for 134 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. The staff obviously knew their offensive line couldn’t stand up to a heavy passing game and wanted to keep Brady healthy, which they were unable to do, as he sprained his ankle in the game.

With a healthy team, Brady dismantled the competition to start the season. In the first seven games, he averaged over 26 fantasy points per game, but injuries piled up and Brady’s stats fell down. So, we know this offense is built for fantasy production, and we saw big games from all of New England’s top skill players this season. Rob Gronkowski was the healthiest player on the team next to Brady. He missed just one game and led the team in all receiving categories, along with all tight ends in the league in fantasy points. It wasn’t the vintage score a touchdown every week Gronk we are used to, due to teams being able to focus more and more on him as Patriot players dropped to the side of the trail, but a triple-covered Gronk is still a top fantasy player and a touchdown machine. He’s still just 26 years old, and as long as he can stay healthy, he’s the no-doubt best tight end in the NFL.

The major injuries to skill players have been to Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, as both were having excellent seasons. Lewis was a great story and a great player through the first seven games of the season, accumulating 622 yards and four touchdowns, along with 36 receptions, before tearing his ACL. He will be back next season and should be slotted in as the Patriots’ third-down back, which is the best third-down back position in the NFL.

Eagles 35, Giants 30

It only took 16 weeks, but we finally saw the Philadelphia offense we were hoping for at the beginning of the year. Sam Bradford completed 30-of-38 passes for 320 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jordan Matthews caught 7-of-9 targets for 54 yards and two touchdowns. Zach Ertz caught 9-of-9 targets for 152 yards. DeMarco Murray rushed 12 times for 69 yards and a touchdown. And all was right with the world. Well, that is until you look back at the season of frustration for anybody who invested in the Eagles.

Was this game due to Chip Kelly being fired? Nope. This was a game between two poor defenses and two teams with absolutely nothing to play for. It was good to see the passing game get on track toward the end of the season, as Bradford topped 320 yards in the last three games, but this is a team in flux, and so much going forward will depend on what offense the new coaching staff will install.

There is plenty of talent here, and even though Bradford is all over the place, he has shown enough ability to give me hope that players like Ertz and Matthews can grow into more consistent fantasy assets.

DeMarco Murray never looked comfortable in Kelly’s offense and really didn’t look all that good when he got his chances. Much will depend on the new offense, as Murray needs some power running downfield. But no matter the offense or the talk that Murray’s Philadelphia’s No. 1 running back, I’ll be skeptical of his ability to turn things around.

Eli Manning completed 24-of-44 passes for 302 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles on Sunday, bringing his season numbers up to 387-of-619 passes (62.5 percent) for 4,436 yards, 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’ll finish with the 10th-most quarterback fantasy points and the most touchdowns in his career. This is mostly due to the pace the Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo sets, as Eli attempted and completed more passes over the last two seasons than he ever has. The question now is, with Tom Coughlin gone, what offense will be implemented and will it mirror the pace the team has set over the last two seasons? That’s of course impossible to know right now, but worth paying close attention to this offseason.

Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t finish strongly, with a suspension last week and a quiet game against the Eagles, but on the season, he backed up his rookie campaign by topping it with a 96/1,450/13 line and broke Randy Moss’ record for most receptions over a receivers first two seasons. Like with Eli Manning, it would be nice if the Giants kept up their fast pace on offense, but no matter what, Beckham Jr. is a top-three receiver in a league with a nice stock of great receivers.

Rashad Jennings was the best running back in Week 17 as he rushed for 170 yards and one touchdown on 27 carries. He was a popular “sleeper” pick this season, but the Giants stubbornly misused their running backs with a three- and sometimes four-headed committee. Finally, in the last four games, the Giants handed the keys over to Jennings, who played well, rushing for 432 yards and two touchdowns. The team will most likely add some competition for Jennings this offseason, but the Andre Williams experiment should be over and Jennings could again be the lead back next season.

Bengals 24, Ravens 16

A.J. McCarron completed 17-of-27 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns as the Bengals took down the Ravens and has looked competent in all of his appearances after Andy Dalton broke his throwing hand thumb, or his “THT,” if you prefer. It doesn’t look like Dalton will be able to return for the Bengals’ tilt with the Steelers, so McCarron will likely get to start a playoff game. It’s too bad because Dalton played some great football this year and made his presence known in fantasy as well.

Dalton had just two down games, while hitting 17 or more points in the other 10. He was easily a top-five fantasy quarterback this season. This year, all the pieces came together as Tyler Eifert and A,J. Green were both healthy, along with the offensive line. Both running backs, Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill also avoided injuries, and it added up to a well-oiled machine with Hue Jackson as the engineer. Of course nothing lasts forever, and the Cincinnati’s injury luck fell over the cliff. The Bengals are set up well for the next few years, and Dalton will remain a QB1 as long as his key pieces remain intact.

Jeremy Hill has led the way while McCarron has been under center as the team wants to limit McCarron’s exposure. Hill did well against the Ravens, as he rushed for 96 yards and a touchdown, but coming into this season, much more was expected of him in fantasy. Last season, Hill rushed 222 times for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns, which put him at 5.1 yards per carry. Those are outstanding numbers, but this season he took a big step backward, rushing 223 times for 794 yards; a pitiful 3.4 yards per carry. He did manage to get into the end zone 11 times, but there were 10 games in which he didn’t score a touchdown. Will he turn things around? I can’t say, but this sharp decline, despite being healthy, is worrisome to say the least. Hill will remain the early-down back for the Bengals next season and will get his shot at rectifying his poor 2015, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

The Ravens, unlike the Bengals, were injured at key positions from the get-go and the misfortune never seemed to let up. Baltimore lost Breshad Perriman, Steve Smith, Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett, just to name all the starters at the skill positions. So, this was a lost season to be sure.

There were some bright spots from Buck Allen and Kamar Aiken as they were called upon, but neither have top-level ability and will most likely be used as depth. Most of your fantasy Ravens will be coming off of injury, including Steve Smith, who decided he couldn’t end his career with an injury. He’ll be 37 years old and coming off an Achilles tear, but he is not normal.

Justin Forsett will have a normal offseason since his broken arm will be healed soon. He’s also signed, and the Ravens expect him back. Add to that, Buck Allen’s inability as a runner, and there’s a good chance we see a lot of Forsett next season. Will he be worth a high fantasy pick? I don’t think we can risk that, but a healthy season by Baltimore’s key players should see him rise with the tide.

Texans 30, Jaguars 6

The Texans don’t have a good quarterback or running back, but they have a great receiver and a good defense. Amazingly, that got them into the playoffs. Houston easily beat the Jaguars on Sunday, but I think we can safely say the Jaguars beat themselves this week. Hoyer completed 25-of-40 passes for 249 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and looked like his usual, not great, but okay self. Going forward, he has little upside, and the Texans will be looking to give him some competition in the offseason.

Jonathan Grimes was the fantasy star against Jacksonville, as he scored two touchdowns, one on the ground and the other through the air, and totaled 54 yards on eight touches, while Alfred Blue rushed 21 times for 102 yards. Those are some pretty good numbers against a stout Jaguars run defense. Blue has now averaged 18 rushing attempts over the last three games.

The long-term answer at running back is unclear. Arian Foster tore his Achilles tendon and turns 30 in August. Much will depend on how well his injury heals and how much gas he has left in the tank. I expect we see a similar group of backs to whom they have now, which isn’t the best news you’ll hear. The Texans don’t have a quarterback, so the running game is a big part of this offense, but with no top guy to go to, they’ll continue to play musical chairs at running back unless Foster can somehow put together a healthy and productive year.

DeAndre Hopkins had 100-yard games with three different quarterbacks this season, all of whom are not good at their jobs. He’ll finish the season with a 96/1,450/13 line, which is truly remarkable considering the turnover and skill level at quarterback. Lock him in again for next season.

So Blake Bortles forgot how to play football on Sunday. Well, maybe he had the knowledge knocked out of him by J.J. Watt. Bortles completed 17-of-32 passes for 239 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions and two fumbles, one of which he lost. One of those interceptions was also returned for a touchdown. Those three turnovers brought his season total up to 23 on the season. That’s not good, but he still finished with the fourth-most quarterback fantasy points, with 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns. This is why you don’t worry about turnovers too much in fantasy. His ability is clearly there, but right now, it’s unrefined. He has a nice group of receivers, which should keep him from regressing too much, but as seen in Week 17, his bad games can be quite bad.

Even in a thoroughly horrible day for the Jaguars, Allen Robinson managed to catch 5-of-9 targets for 109 yards against a motivated Houston defense. Robinson had a huge breakout season collecting a fat line of 80/1,400/14. Those 14 touchdowns tied for the league lead and were consistent throughout the season. Bortles is also willing to target Robinson, even when he’s covered, which made him matchup proof all season. He’s a top-five receiver moving forward and will continue to help Allen Hurns put up his best numbers possible.

Panthers 38, Bucs 10

Cam Newton bounced back in a big way from the Panthers’ loss to the Falcons last week, completing 21-of-26 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns, plus rushed six times for 10 yards and two more touchdowns. It was another masterful display by the likely MVP. Newton started the season somewhat slowly, at least compared to his second half of the year, but he never dipped below the 12 fantasy points he had in Week 1. For the season, Newton averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game, and the next closest was Tom Brady at 20.9, a 38 total point difference.

This was the season we have been waiting for from Newton. Yes, he has put up good fantasy numbers in the past, but he destroyed his previous high of 24 passing touchdowns, as he threw for 35 this season, while also adding 10 more on the ground. He accounted for 45 touchdowns, with 10 of those being worth six points each in most leagues. Will he be over-drafted next season? There is no doubt in my mind that he will be. He’s the best fantasy quarterback in the league, but there’s absolutely no reason to take him in the first or second round over another great player at a much scarcer position.

With Ted Ginn Jr. out for this game, we got to see Devin Funchess unleashed, and it was better than expected, as he caught 7-of-8 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown. Funchess was a raw project out of the 2015 NFL Draft, and it showed for much of the season, but he’s been making the most of his opportunities late in the season, and we could see him used more in the playoffs, especially after this nice performance. If Funchess does continue to build off this game, it might be tougher to get him in fantasy drafts next season though. Everything is set up well for him, with Ted Ginn Jr. more of a deep threat than anything else and nobody else on the current roster worth their weight as a receiver. Funchess is also just 21 years old, so dynasty players should be extremely interested in acquiring him where possible.

Jonathan Stewart remained out for this game, but will be ready for the playoffs. His season has been good, especially when he started seeing 20-plus rushing attempts after the Week 5 bye. Of course, the trouble remains that he is not the goal-line back as he ended up with six total touchdowns to Newton’s 10.

Jameis Winston completed 29-of-47 passes for 325 yards and two interceptions, and rushed three times for 14 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown took a horrible fantasy game and elevated it into a mediocre one. It was also his sixth rushing touchdown of the season, which pushed him up to the 14th-highest scoring fantasy quarterback. It was, of course, an uneven rookie year, but there were glimpses of a player who could have staying power.

Doug Martin rushed 15 times for 48 yards and caught 7-of-7 targets for 60 yards against a tough Carolina defense, putting a nice bow on his comeback/contract year season. He finished second in rushing yards with 1,402, but totaled just seven touchdowns, losing some to Winston and others to a poor offense. Martin’ll be a free agent, but the Bucs want him back and will pay for the pleasure. He’ll be a worthwhile pick next season, but after two down seasons, then a big contract year season, I won’t be bullish on the hamster.

Mike Evans was ejected in this game for going off on a ref, which also puts a neat, but crappy bow on his forgettable 2015 campaign. His stats don’t look horrible, with a line of 74/1,206/3, but he had trouble with multi-drop games and getting in the end zone, despite his 147 targets. Is he going to turn things around? He probably won’t have Vincent Jackson on the other side, so his usage should remain high, but I do worry that his efficiency will remain poor.

Chiefs 23, Raiders 17

Alex Smith hasn’t topped 191 passing yards over the last four weeks, but Kansas City continues to win – 10 in a row to be exact. The one constant for the Chiefs has been Jeremy Maclin, who found the end zone for the sixth time over the last six weeks, giving him eight touchdowns on the season, which is notable since Kansas City had zero receiving touchdowns to wide receivers last season. Maclin didn’t blow the doors off anyone this year, but he is a big reason the Chiefs are in the playoffs.

The running back situation became murky after Jamaal Charles went down in Week 5. Charcandrick West took over, but Spencer Ware came on strong before getting nicked up. Against the Raiders, Ware was fully back and outplayed West as he rushed 16 times for 76 yards and a touchdown, while West rushed 13 times for 34 yards. Ware was the “hot hand” in this one and probably the better running back.

Charles should be ready for Week 1 next season after tearing his ACL. He’ll be 29, but it will be hard to bet against his talent. Handcuffing Ware to him next season sounds like a good course of action.

Derek Carr was sacked six times by Kansas City’s defense and completed 21-of-33 passes for 194 yards, one touchdown and one interception. There were plenty of ups and downs for Carr this year, but he took a strong step forward and has a great young receiver in Amari Cooper to grow with. Carr’s no sure thing, but it’s always good to see growth by a young quarterback, and there were plenty of throws that he made this season, which only the best quarterbacks can make with regularity. I think he has a lot of upside moving forward.

Latavius Murray was stifled by Kansas City’s tough defense, but he’s been stifled more than not down the stretch. He finishes the season with 266 carries for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns along with 41 receptions for 232 yards and no touchdowns. His four yards per carry is a bit worrisome and he just didn’t look like a dynamic runner, as he continues to run tall and not make people miss. I think this offense will continue to improve, which could help Murray, but I don’t know how much leeway they’ll give him.

Seahawks 36, Cardinals 6

Russell Wilson served notice to the Cardinals as he whipped them into submission, leading his team to four first-half touchdowns, three of those being his touchdown passes in the second quarter. Bruce Arians sat Carson Palmer at half to save him from the massacre. The next time they meet, I expect a much closer battle, and I bet that comes in the second round of the playoffs.

Wilson has been a fantasy beast in the second half of the season. He’s now thrown 24 touchdowns to just one interception over his last seven games, having a 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions ratio in his first nine games of the season. That’s quite the about face. A huge chunk of those touchdowns went to Doug Baldwin in a touchdown blizzard from Week 12 to 16 when he caught 11 touchdown passes; 11 touchdowns passes in five games. Only five receivers had more than that through 16 weeks.

But will we see this Wilson all season next year, or the one who tossed 10 touchdowns to seven picks? I’m not sure, but I doubt that Wilson will show his face around this Wilson. He’d be too embarrassed.

So, the Cardinals were curb stomped in this game, but have dominated all year with Carson Palmer at the controls. Palmer has put up the best numbers of his career in this, his 12th season. With a 63.7 percent completion rate, 4,671 yards passing, 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, Palmer has bested his career highs in al of these except completion percentage, and his number this season is his second-best. He won’t beat Cam Newton for the MVP, but he is deserving.

The Cardinals top-three receivers all put up good numbers, with Larry Fitzgerald leading the way with a 109/1,215/9 line. John Brown finished with 65/1,003/7 and Michael Floyd had 52/849/6. That is a triumvirate of aerial dominance there. Fitzgerald slowed down a bit as the season went on, and Michael Floyd was the preferred target for many games, but dealt with injuries. I’ll be targeting Floyd next season in drafts.

David Johnson finished the season with 12 touchdowns on just 161 touches, and even though he had to wait for injuries to Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington to get his shot, when he got it, he took it. David Johnson proved he is the best back on the team as he totaled 1,038 yards on those 161 touches and will probably be an extremely high draft pick next season, with good reason.

Broncos 27, Chargers 20

Brock Osweiler turned the ball over three times in the first half, so in came Peyton Manning to hand off the ball and not turn it over, which led to a win. Manning did look healthier and able-bodied enough to play more competently than he has, but he was awful to start the season. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Osweiler hasn’t been much better. He does have a wider range of throws and is more mobile, but Manning also makes up for his deficiencies with experience. I think they are fairly equal at this point, so I expect Manning to get the playoff nod, but will have a shorter leash than he has ever had in his career.

The lack of a top quarterback has ground this offense down, but Denver has still produced two 1,000-yard receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Moving forward though, I don’t see much hope with who the Broncos are rolling out to throw those two the ball, and unless Osweiler improves, next season is looking very shaky for this offense.

The running game came alive against the Chargers, who happen to be horrid against the run. Both Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson put up good numbers, as they both topped 95 yards and a touchdown in this game. But for fantasy purposes, they’ve been a huge headache. Together, they ran 359 times for 1,582 yards and 12 touchdowns. Anderson had the better yards per carry, but started off so slowly that he allowed a committee to be formed, which then voted him out of the lead-back job.

Philip Rivers completed 21-of-35 passes for 228 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Denver against the Denver Broncos’ defense, with a makeshift offensive line and no original starting wide receivers. It wasn’t a great performance, but Rivers gutted it out and made it a game. For all his whining and complaining, the guy sure goes all out on every play. He managed to put up 4,793 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, finishing with the 11th-most fantasy points. He’s 34 years old and has 27 kids, but I think he has some fantasy goodness left in him, especially with Keenan Allen and some healthy offensive linemen next season.

Danny Woodhead had to take on a huge amount of receiving duties with so many injuries, and he ended up with 80 receptions for 755 yards and six touchdowns. On the ground, Woodhead ran the ball 98 times for 336 yards and three more touchdowns. Overall, that puts him with the 10th-most running back fantasy points in standard leagues and the third-most in one-point PPR leagues. Now, that sounds pretty good, but he only had six games with double-digit fantasy points and eight with just six or fewer fantasy points in standard leagues. Almost all of his value came in PPR leagues, so take the 10th-best standard finish and, well, erase it from your memory, because it is a useless number.

49ers 19, Rams 16

The Gabbert/Keenum bowl went as expected, boringly. Both quarterbacks have played above expectations, but expectations were lower than a snake’s belly at the bottom of a bottomless pit. Neither of these quarterbacks should be leading a NFL team.

The 49ers don’t have much in the way of fantasy potential on their team at the moment. Carlos Hyde may be the lone exception, as he was able to generate some offense behind a terrible offensive line, with terrible quarterbacks leading the way. Of course he was injured, but that may have been a blessing in disguise as this was a lost season for the 49ers. Of course, next season doesn’t look too promising either.

The Rams continue to live in mediocreville with Jeff Fisher no matter what town they end up playing in. But thankfully Todd Gurley is so not mediocre; he can make this football team actually look like it’s not horrible sometimes. He is an amazing talent, but very much needs some help so he’s not the next Steven Jackson.

Vikings 20, Packers 13

Teddy Bridgewater completed 10-of-19 passes for 99 yards and an interception as he “led” his team to the division championship Sunday night. After watching him throw for four touchdowns and run for another against the Bears, I thought there might be some hope for a good finish to the season and into the playoffs, but that was a pipe dream, as he followed up that game with 267 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception in the final two games. Maybe Bridgewater can turn it on when he needs to, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

Adrian Peterson wasn’t that efficient, rushing 19 times for 67 yards, but he willed his way into the end zone from three yards out, and with the lack of a passing game, it takes a true superstar to put up the numbers he did this year. Peterson ran the ball 327 times for 1,485 yards and 11 touchdowns at a 4.5 yards per carry clip. That is astounding for a 30-year-old back.

I can’t really tell you why the Packers are so terrible right now, but they are. Aaron Rodgers needed Jordy Nelson more than anyone could have predicted, and he also needs a functioning offensive line, especially with receivers who can’t get any kind of separation. Rodgers’ numbers haven’t been horrible for the season, but they are all down from his normal elite self.

If someone would have told me that Eddie Lacy would play in 15 games this season and score just three rushing touchdowns, I’d have just burnt my dynasty team down to the ground right then and there. Will he turn things around? Go on a diet? Purchase a stair stepper? Eat an apple? Do something big fella!

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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