Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 12, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Texans 24, Saints 6
If Houston’s defense, coupled with Drew Brees’ aversion to the outdoors, hadn’t kept the Saints from scoring a touchdown this week, Brian Hoyer would have probably put up more points, as he had two quick touchdown passes, but in the end, he had to do very little, which is his wont. But don’t worry about throwing any warm body at the Saints’ defense, because they aren’t good.

Alfred Blue had a good game in a great matchup, rushing 16 times for 77 yards and a touchdown, but the Texans ran the ball 32 times, with Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk getting 13, and Cecil Shorts seeing three. Blue needs these kinds of puff-pastry matchups to put up good fantasy points.

Houston’s defense has allowed just two touchdowns in its last four games. This has quickly become a team you don’t feel great about starting your fantasy players against.

Drew Brees didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time since 2012, and the Saints didn’t score a touchdown for the first time in 155 games. Their leading fantasy scorer was Mark Ingram, who rushed nine times for 52 yards and caught 6-of-8 targets for 45 yards. Maybe giving Ingram more than nine carries would have helped the offense a bit?

Chiefs 30, Bills 22
Sammy Watkins had just one target in the second half, but in the first half, he went off, collecting six passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns. If Watkins is healthy and getting targets, he is hard to stop. Expect him to continue to be targeted, even when covered, going forward.

After three lackluster starts coming off an injury, Tyrod Taylor had his best game of the season, in Kansas City, completing 21-of-38 passes for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Watkins’ talent is an important part of this line, so as long as he’s in there, Taylor has a shot at putting up good passing numbers, and then, he always has rushing upside.

LeSean McCoy rushed 19 times for 70 yards and caught 3-of-5 targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. This was a tough matchup, and McCoy showed once again that he’s still a top option in fantasy week in and week out.

Kansas City had one of its better all-around fantasy games this week, as Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin all had good games. Maclin was the star this week though, with 160 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions. He had been bottled up in his last four starts, but also had some tough matchups in those starts. Maclin gets Oakland, San Diego, Baltimore and Cleveland to finish out the season, and may help you win a fantasy championship.

Chargers 31, Jaguars 25
Philip Rivers ain’t dead yet. He put together a great game, completing 29-of-43 passes for 300 yards and four touchdowns against a lackluster Jacksonville defense. It seems as long as he’s facing a defense that has trouble getting pressure, he’s going to find some open receivers, no matter how old or injured they are.

Antonio Gates is old and perpetually injured, but he connected with Rivers for two touchdowns on Sunday. Gates does not look healthy and still, he can score two touchdowns in an NFL game. It really is quite amazing. I don’t see Gates breaking off too many big-yardage games to finish the season, but you can’t discount receptions and touchdowns from the old man.

Stevie Johnson finally put up the numbers we were hoping after Keenan Allen went down. Johnson caught 7-of-10 targets for 92 yards and one touchdown, and has now been targeted 28 times in the last three games, with seven receptions in each. His upside isn’t quite as high as I was hoping, but he’s a good start each week, especially in PPR leagues.

Blake Bortles had been putting up some poor numbers of late, but got back on track this week completing 30-of-49 passes for 329 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. When I say “got back on track,” I mean purely in a fantasy football contact, because he was pretty awful as a real football player this week, but this is the way of the Bortles.

Julius Thomas led the way on offense for the Jaguars, catching 9-of-10 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. His targets increased after Allen Hurns had to be taken to the hospital with a severe concussion and could continue to see the extra work if Hurns can’t come back soon.

Vikings 20, Falcons 10
Adrian Peterson is the Minnesota offense, and it’s actually working in both real and fake football. All Day rushed 29 times for 158 yards and two touchdowns, and caught 2-of-4 targets for 29 yards. He had a bad drop, which is why he’s not seeing the receptions he could be in this offense, but I don’t think his fantasy backers will complain. His schedule going forward isn’t great, with Seattle, Arizona, Chicago and the Giants on the docket, but he’s pretty tough to stop right now, and that Chicago matchup looks tasty.

Kyle Rudolph was the second-leading fantasy-point getter after Peterson with just five fantasy points. Rudolph led the team with in receptions, targets and receiving yards by catching 7-of-10 targets for 53 yards. The days of Stefon Diggs may be over for this year, while Rudolph is back into the fantasy picture, but barely.

Teddy Bridgewater now has eight touchdown passes in 11 games.

Matt Ryan has devolved into a mass of goo. He has only hit 20 fantasy points once this season and now has five multiple-interception games. This week against the Vikings, Ryan had his lowest yardage output of the year with just 230 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He goes to Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville and then back home against Carolina again, to finish out the fantasy season. He has no fantasy appeal in those Carolina games.

Julio Jones was out-targeted by Roddy White, and that’s all you really need to know about this game. Moving forward, Jones will get great matchups against Tampa and Jacksonville, but Josh Norman of the Panthers is going to give Jones all he can handle, especially with Matt Ryan playing so poorly.

Jets 38, Dolphins 20
Ryan Fitzpatrick doubled his single-game touchdown high for the season with four against Miami on Sunday as Brandon Marshall took Brent Grimes to school, catching 9-of-11 targets for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Fitzmagic also hit Eric Decker and rookie Devin Smith for touchdowns. Fitz does a good job of getting the ball to his play-makers. He’s thrown 20 touchdowns on the season, with Marshall seeing nine and Decker getting eight.

Chris Ivory was bottled up for much of the day, but broke out for a great 31-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to give him 103 total yards and the touchdown. He’s played better of late after looking like he may have hit a wall or have been injured. This offense is good enough to give him touchdown opportunities, keeping him in the RB1 conversation.

The Dolphins lost this game, and Ryan Tannehill was a big reason for that loss, but in the fake game, this was Tannehill’s best production since Week 7. He completed 33-of-58 passes for 351 yards, three touchdowns, with a pick and fumble tacked on. Tannehill’s just not playing well enough to expect consistency.

Jarvis Landry was the main fantasy star for Miami, as he caught 13-of-16 targets for 165 yards and a touchdown. In games like this, where the Dolphins trail all game, Landry is just an extension of the running game as he collects short passes.

Jay Ajayi outgained Lamar Miller and did it through the air with four receptions for 52 yards. That’s slightly disconcerting since I felt Miller’s fantasy edge was in receptions. I think it’s time to consider Ajayi a real threat to Miller’s ceiling.

Redskins 20, Giants 14
Somehow Eli Manning didn’t end up with negative points in this one. The Giants were horrible, and Eli was at the helm of the horrible ship. He threw three interceptions and had plenty of passes that had a chance to be picked off. He chucked the ball up into the atmosphere 51 times, completing just 26 for 321 yards, two touchdowns and the three interceptions.

Odell Beckham Jr. looked like one of the few players giving it his all, or maybe he is just the only good player the Giants have. He caught 9-of-18 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown, and has shown he was in no way a rookie-year wonder. Be happy you have him on your team.

Kirk Cousins completed 20-of-29 passes for 302 yards and tacked on one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown. Cousins was good and finished with no turnovers; only his third game of the season in which he can say that.

DeSean Jackson only caught two passes, but one was a long touchdown reception. He’s going to be boom or bust. He has back-to-back games in which he’s caught a long touchdown, but counting on those long touchdowns is not wise.

Jordan Reed caught 8-of-9 targets for 98 yards. That’s a nice fantasy game for a tight end without a touchdown, which is a tough order to fill, but Reed is a top tight end and should continue to be one while healthy.

Raiders 24, Titans 21
Derek Carr looked like smoldering garbage last week in a nice matchup, but once again, turned things around and played a masterful game, completing 24-of-37 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been great more often than not this year, but his down games can be back-breakers in fantasy. I’m not going to trust him completely, but his ability has won me over enough to give him the edge over a player like Blake Bortles, who puts up decent numbers, but hasn’t looked good in real life.

Amari Cooper has been inconsistent this season, especially of late, but put together a good game against the Titans, catching 7-of-12 targets for 115 yards, but the big fantasy receiver for the Raiders this week was Seth Roberts, who caught 6-of-7 targets for 113 yards and two touchdowns and looked excellent doing so. He’s behind Michael Crabtree and Cooper in targets, so he’s scary add for this season, but he made some amazing plays and has plenty of talent, and if he can bring it together consistently, watch out.

Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns, but also added two interceptions, completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes and totaled just 218 yards. The lack of a good running back does help his touchdowns numbers, and he shows promise, but he also makes some bad decisions and displays poor accuracy on deep balls. Mariota’s still got a ways to go before being a safe fantasy play.

Delanie Walker remained the No. 1 target, even with Kendall Wright back, catching 6-of-8 targets for 91 yards. He’s been a top tight end when healthy over the last two years and as the No. 1 target, makes for a safe play each week.

Bengals 31, Rams 7
Nick Foles is horrible. He really is the worst quarterback in the league right now. Case Keenum, who might be the second-worst quarterback in the league, will be the Rams’ starter as soon as he’s cleared of his concussion.

Tavon Austin was the only bright spot in an otherwise gloomy day for the Rams. He totaled 96 yards and a touchdown through the air and on the ground. But, of course, this comes after totaling seven fantasy points over the three previous games. Austin has four double-digit standard fantasy games and seven games with less than eight fantasy points. His inconsistent output makes him a must-sit.

Andy Dalton only threw the ball 10 times in the second half due to the game already being out of hand, but he did look good against St. Louis’ top defense, completing 20-of-27 passes for 233 yards with three touchdowns. Dalton now has averaged 20 fantasy points against the Cardinals and the Rams over the last two weeks after hitting a bit of a slump. He gets Cleveland, Pittsburgh – at home – and San Francisco before facing Denver in Week 16. On the whole, that’s a nice schedule.

A.J. Green caught 6-of-8 targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams. He’s been extremely inconsistent this year, with two three-game stretches without a touchdown, but he now has six touchdowns on the season and is ready for three nice matchups.

Colts 25, Bucs 12
Jameis Winston made some nice throws in this game, but on the whole, this was a big step down from last week and shows us that he is still a rookie with plenty of inconsistencies. Winston wasn’t helped by Mike Evans, who had a touchdown pass he couldn’t hang onto, but that’s also become something we’ve had to account for from him.

Doug Martin had a decent game, with 14 carries for 97 yards, but couldn’t get into the end zone yet again. He’s now gone six games in a row without a touchdown. He did have a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty, but close isn’t good enough Doug!

Matt Hasselbeck completed 26-of-42 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns, both to T.Y. Hilton. Hasselbeck is getting the job done and then some, but this was his first good fantasy game. He does get Pittsburgh and Jacksonville in the next two weeks, which should give him some fantasy upside.

Hilton caught 6-of-12 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. This was a nice game, especially after he had totaled just 118 yards and no touchdowns over the three previous games. He also had some tough matchups in those games, facing Carolina, Denver and Atlanta. With Pittsburgh and Jacksonville up next, his upside is high.

Cardinals 19, 49ers 13
We can officially be afraid of playing our fantasy starters at San Francisco. The 49ers have allowed an average of 15.8 points at home, and no team has put up more than 20 on them. And those numbers include a Cardinals team that hit just 19 points in a close game after averaging a league-high 33.6 – and 35.2 on the road – coming into Week 12.

Carson Palmer was held without a touchdown pass for the first time this season and had his worst completion percentage since Week 1. His body of work this season allows us to see this game as a blip on the radar that is probably just a fly instead of an F-16.

Larry Fitzgerald was bottled up all day, but still caught 10 passes for 66 yards, a nice game in PPR leagues. The best news to take from this game is that John Brown looked healthy as he caught 5-of-7 targets for 99 yards.

Blaine Gabbert has now put together three decent games, and this week, he threw for a career-high 318 yards against the Cardinals, who had allowed an average of 228.7 yards passing per game. I don’t think you can push Gabbert up into a streamable quarterback, but in 2QB leagues, he’s been playing well enough to start him in nice matchups.

Vance McDonald has now caught touchdowns in back-to-back games and averaged five receptions for 68 yards. Of course, this is all pretty tenuous, but Garret Celek rolled his ankle, and McDonald will be the clear No. 1 while Celek is out.

Seahawks 39, Steelers 30
Doug Baldwin caught three touchdowns and 145 yards. Jermaine Kearse caught two touchdowns. Markus Wheaton went over 200 yards receiving with a touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 456 yards. Russell Wilson threw for 345 yards and five touchdowns. That’s a lot of fantasy points.

Wilson now has eight touchdown passes in his last two games after throwing 10 over his first nine games. He’s still a scary start after putting together so many mediocre fantasy games in a row, but this recent trend is hard to overlook.

I have an aversion to any Seattle receiver. I want to say Baldwin is becoming safer after two huge games in the last three weeks, but before that he had hit double-digit fantasy points just once in the first eight games of the season. The good news for his fantasy floor is that Jimmy Graham is out for the season. Baldwin should see enough of an uptick in targets to at least be worth a WR3 play going forward.

Richard Sherman shadowing Antonio Brown and Heath Miller leaving with a rib injury helped along Markus Wheaton’s huge game, but Wheaton did look better than his normal spazzy self. When Brown doesn’t have Sherman to contend with, he’ll see the lion’s share of the targets, and Heath Miller and Martavis Bryant should remain ahead of Wheaton in the pecking order as long as Miller’s injury isn’t bad.

Broncos 30, Patriots 24
Brock Osweiler is your new Broncos quarterback after helping his team beat the Patriots to end their undefeated season. He didn’t have a good fantasy day, as Ronnie Hillman rushed for one touchdown and C.J. Anderson rushed for two, but Osweiler’s ability, compared to Peyton Manning’s, is what helped the running game come together like it has. Osweiler does have appeal as a fantasy player as well. He put up 270 yards and a touchdown against a good New England defense, and the Denver offense should be in the red zone enough to give him multiple touchdown potential.

C.J. Anderson touched the ball 19 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns compared to Ronnie Hillman, who touched the ball 15 times for 59 yards and one touchdown. This looks like it will remain a committee approach, but Anderson has put his hat into the ring for more touches moving forward.

After three “down” games for Tom Brady, he went to Denver and put up 280 yards and three touchdowns after losing Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. You can’t really explain it other than to say Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. And I do not say that with any hint of glee. His leading target was Scott Chandler. Scott Chandler!

Brady’s second leading target was Rob Gronkowski, who led the team with six receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a knee injury. First thoughts are that its hyperextension and shouldn’t cost him too many games.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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