Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 10, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Lions 18, Packers 16
Detroit went into Green Bay and won for the first time since the signing of the Declaration of Independence, but as far as fantasy goes, there weren’t many highlights or signs of good things to come.

Matthew Stafford threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, which put him in the middle of the pack in fantasy – not where you really want to be. His two touchdowns went to perennial turd Brandon Pettigrew and journeyman wide receiver Lance Moore. Stafford’s going to throw the ball and has a decent schedule, but I don’t believe he’s going to lead many fantasy teams to championships.

Ameer Abdullah saw more work than his zilch work last week, but he only ran the ball five times and caught his one target, for a total of 12 yards. He did have a 104-yard kickoff return, but unless you are in a return-yardage league, he didn’t do squat, as he was tackled at the one.

Aaron Rodgers was not sharp in this game, and it was a humiliating defeat in real football, but he still managed to pass for 333 yards and two touchdowns. We need this offense to get going if we want huge numbers from Rodgers, but if you watched this game, you are thanking whatever gods you adhere to that Rodgers got the fantasy points he did.

Randall Cobb saw 10 targets and caught five for 53 yards, which is not good, especially in a great matchup like this, but the craziest stat in this passing game was Davante Adams seeing an enormous 21 targets. Usually, when Rodgers is throwing you the ball, 21 targets should mean about a billion yards, but for Adams, it turned into 10 receptions for 79 yards. That is the opposite of efficient, which is the opposite of Rodgers’ modus operandi. Let’s hope he and Cobb can get things going soon.

Jaguars 22, Ravens 20
Blake Bortles did not live up to expectations in a great matchup against the Ravens’ weak pass defense, as he completed less than 50 percent of his 45 passes for just 188 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. As usual, this was an up-and-down day for Bortles as he managed to throw for two or more touchdowns for his fifth-straight game. High volume is keeping him fantasy relevant, but inefficiency is keeping his ceiling from being as high as it could be. He’ll be inconsistent, but has a decent schedule going forward and will throw the ball a lot, to some good receivers.

Allen Hurns caught five of his nine targets for 62 yards and yet another touchdown. It was his seventh touchdown in a row, and I think at this point you just hold on for the ride.

Allen Robinson saw two more targets than Hurns, caught the same amount of passes, had 11 fewer yards and a touchdown. This matchup seemed prime for a big day from Robinson, but of course, that was true of the passing game as a whole. After a nearly non-existent first half, the numbers he managed were good in comparison.

Joe Flacco was a bit of a turnover machine in this one, but did manage to offset those negative points with 316 yards and three touchdown passes. This was the game we expected from Bortles – with hopes for a bit more of course: low efficiency, high-volume passing, but to lesser receivers than the Jaguars have.

Those Baltimore receivers were Kamar Aiken, who saw 14 targets, catching seven for 73 yards; Chris Givens with seven targets, catching four for 37 yards and a touchdown; and then eight more players with five or fewer targets. Aiken’s volume of targets will keep him fantasy relevant going forward, but these are the kinds of games we can expect. He looks to be the safest receiver for fantasy, but Chris Givens, who scored a touchdown, could be more volatile, but also have a higher points ceiling.

Running back Kyle Juszczyk had five targets and caught all five for 47 yards, while Justin Forsett saw four targets and caught all four for 11 yards. That’s a little disconcerting that Forsett is splitting that much passing work.

Bears 37, Rams 13
Jay Cutler has thrived under new offensive coordinator Adam Gase, and it showed up well in St, Louis as he completed 19-of-24 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for 24 yards and not turning the ball over. His 24 fantasy points were the most the Rams have given up to an opposing quarterback this season and the first time one has topped 16 points against them.

Cutler’s favorite target was running back Jeremy Langford, who saw nine targets and caught seven for 109 yards and a touchdown, while his second-favorite target was backup tight end Zach Miller, who caught all five of his targets for 107 yards and two touchdowns, while “starting” tight end Martellus Bennett caught his three targets for 18 yards. Miller has looked good these last two weeks, and I’ll be interested to see the snap data from this game to see how often Miller ran routes compared to Bennett. But I don’t think this is a fluke.

Langford had the best fantasy game of any running back so far this week, with the aforementioned 109 yards receiving and a touchdown and also 73 yards rushing and a touchdown. Matt Forte may be able to go next week, which makes this situation tricky. I don’t see the Bears cutting too deep into Forte’s overall workload, but Langford could become the goal-line back along with spelling Forte.

Nick Foles is horrible. The Bears are very much beatable on defense, but Foles can’t beat anyone or anything, anywhere at any time. Todd Gurley managed to piece together a decent game with 89 total yards and a touchdown, but Foles coupled with a defense showing plenty of holes over the last two weeks, means Gurley could see more games where he doesn’t hit 20 touches, like this one where he managed just 15 because the Bears got out to such a large lead. They really would have just as well or better if they’d kept running the ball with Gurley instead of giving Foles 36 attempts, which he turned into just 17 completions for 200 yards and an interception.

As usual, the Rams’ receivers did little, including their most fantasy relevant wideout Tavon Austin, who had five touches for 23 yards. He’s going to blow up on your bench and then have a dud in your starting lineup, so just deal.

Steelers 30, Browns 9
If only we would have known Ben Roethlisberger was going to play most of this game so we could have been more bullish on Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and, of course, Roethlisberger himself. But we didn’t, so when Landry Jones went down with an ankle injury, the outlook for this passing game went way up, and then went higher than that in actuality as Roethlisberger threw for 379 yards and three touchdowns, with two touchdowns going to Antonio Brown and one to Martavis Bryant as they also racked up beaucoup yards. This Pittsburgh offense is quite fantasy friendly and will remain that way as long as Roethlisberger is healthy.

DeAngelo Williams was the biggest disappointment this week, because he had the best matchup you could think of and couldn’t take advantage. The Steelers didn’t really need him, so they didn’t force the issue, and his injured foot might have hindered some plays, so I’m not going to freak out too much here. He’s still on a good offense and will get plenty of work as the Steelers try to take their 6-4 record into a playoff berth.

Johnny Manziel had no trouble completing passes against the Steelers, with 33-on-42 attempts for 372 yards and a touchdown. He also had an interception and a fumble, and was sacked six times, but on the whole, this was a good step for his fantasy outlook, as he hadn’t topped 182 yards in his four starts this year.

Gary Barnidge continues to put up fantasy numbers, and this time with Manziel at the helm. Barnidge caught 6-of-8 targets for 65 yards and his seventh touchdown of the year. This is a good sign, as Barnidge’s only down games had been with Manziel at quarterback.

The running game for the Browns was non-existent against the Steelers’ tough run defense, as the running backs finished with five rushing yards between them. Isaiah Crowell was the worst, with minus-5 yards on six carries, while Duke Johnson had 10 yards on four carries, but also caught four passes for 18 yards. You don’t want either of those results, but if you had to choose it would be Duke’s game, and that’s going to be the way it usually is due to his receiving ability.

Panthers 27, Titans 10
Cam Newton keeps Cam Newtoning all over the place, and it’s been pretty glorious for those who have him in fantasy. Once again, he found the end zone on a goal-line run, and even though he totaled just 217 yards passing and one passing touchdown, he still hit 20 fantasy points. He’s only thrown for 300 yards once this season and has turned the ball over plenty, but he’s a force of nature with six rushing touchdowns and an average of 40 yards rushing per game. That’s an average of eight fantasy points just on the ground.

After Newton, you’ve got Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen for fantasy, while Ted Ginn Jr. has fallen as Cam has spread the ball out more and Devin Funchess has made some strides. So it was good to see Stewart score from outside the goal line, which is Newton’s domain for the most part. Stewart scored from 16 yards out, giving him four touchdowns in his last five games. He didn’t score a touchdown through the first four weeks, so this is a nice trend.

Greg Olsen continued his strong and consistent play with eight receptions on eight targets for 80 yards. If he had eight total yards it might have been too awesome, so adding the zero keeps us number nerds from getting too excited.

I’m not sure if I’m legally obligated to write about the Titans, but I’ll do it just for you. So, the Titans totaled 11 first downs on 46 total plays for 242 total yards for a totally crappy offensive day. Marcus Mariota went from a four-touchdown day last week to a zero-touchdown day this week. This game was of course a tough matchup for any team, but the Titans need to face the Saints to have any hope of fantasy relevance.

Redskins 47, Saints 14
Kirk Cousins and family got to face the Saints this week, which means lots and lots of fantasy points. Cousins had thrown for more than one touchdown in a game this year only once before, and that was against an equally putrid pass defense, the Buccaneers. Cousins completed 20-of-25 passes for 324 yards and four touchdowns against teh Saints, and next week against Carolina, he’ll probably have 200 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, as is his wont.

The biggest fantasy stud for Washington not named Cousins, was Matt Jones, who took advantage of the matchup and turned his 14 touches into 187 yards and a touchdown. His huge game could have been the death knell for Alfred Morris, but Morris had four more rushing attempts and the same number of targets and receptions as he totaled 106 yards. This is still a committee, and its members won’t get to face the Saints every week.

Other than Jones, no receiver put up over 60 yards through the air as Cousins completed passes to nine different players and didn’t target any one receiver over five times. Jordan Reed did find the end zone twice on his three receptions, which keeps him in the top-three per game fantasy tight ends. He’s always a bit risky due to injuries, but finding a tight end with his consistency is tough to do. I wouldn’t be letting him get away.

Drew Brees started off strong with two quick touchdowns, but faded pretty fast, ending the day with just 209 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Brees on the road and outdoors just isn’t a good recipe for fantasy points.

Mark Ingram had eight touches while Tim Hightower had 11 and C.J. Spiller had 10, despite Ingram totaling 98 yards to Hightower’s 46 and Spiller’s 34. It looks like Ingram may have been injured, so hopefully we’ll learn more soon, because if he weren’t, this would be a depressing development.

Buccaneers 10, Cowboys 6
Jameis Winston had gone four games without a turnover before throwing two interceptions against Dallas, on his way to his worst fantasy game since Week 4. He did rush for a touchdown, which was his third in the last three games and his fourth on the season. It’s too bad to see him turn the ball over again and not throw a touchdown, but the rushing touchdown gives me hope that his floor can remain strong and his upside in good matchups can continue to grow.

Mike Evans saw 13 targets with Vincent Jackson out again, while Charles Sims was second with five. Evans turned those targets into eight receptions for 126 yards and had a better day corralling the ball than last week. He now has four 100-plus-yard games in seven starts and three in his last four. He is having trouble getting into the end zone, with just one on the year. Hopefully, Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins will return at some point and give the offense a boost, as well as Evans’ scoring opportunities.

After getting benched for a quarter last week due to a fumble, Doug Martin had 22 touches for 103 yards, while Charles Sims had seven touches for 31 yards. That’s good to see, and keeps Martin in the RB1 conversation each week.

Dallas only managed two field goals against a Buccaneer’s defense that has allowed 28.9 points per game this year. Matt Cassel couldn’t replicate his game from last week against the Eagles and stifled any chance of fantasy production in this good matchup. Hopefully, Tony Romo will be ready to roll next week so this offense can give us some more consistent fantasy options.

Dolphins 20, Eagles 19
Jay Ajayi only saw six rushing attempts, but did turn them into 48 yards, while Lamar Miller had 16 rushing attempts for 43 yards and six receptions on eight targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. So even though he wasn’t as efficient, Miller had 24 looks to Ajayi’s six. Will those numbers start getting closer together going forward? Maybe, but Miller is the lead back and will remain so until he either starts playing much worse or gets injured.

Jarvis Landry led the way with 12 targets, catching seven for 52 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown was a fluke as it was deflected up into what’s left of the ozone layer, but it all counts the same on paper or computer screen.

Rishard Matthews was third in targets with six, turning them into five receptions for 93 yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last three games, but he continues to put up decent numbers, averaging five receptions over his last five games, making him a safe PPR play each week.

The Eagles lost Sam Bradford with a concussion, a joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder and the “crazy eyes.” Bradford had completed 19-of-25 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown before getting injured, and then Mark Sanchez came in to complete 14-of-23 passes for 156 yards and an interception. I’d prefer those first numbers.

Ryan Mathews also suffered a concussion in this game, while DeMarco Murray touched the ball 28 times for 119 total yards. Murray’s usage continues to be high enough that he gets you high-floor fantasy stats, even when he’s not on his game.

Vikings 30, Raiders 14
This was the Adrian Peterson party as he went off for 203 yards rushing and a touchdown on 26 carries, and tacked on 13 yards receiving. He’s now topped 100 yards in his last three games and had a touchdown in his last two. His usual touchdown numbers aren’t quite here on the season, but he’s looked incredible over the last two weeks.

Teddy Bridgewater didn’t need too much in this game other than take care of the football, which he did. And that’s all they are going to ask of him this season.

Over half of Minnesota’s total yards were from Peterson, so there wasn’t much in the way of fantasy points to go around. In games where the Vikings don’t dominate with Peterson, Bridgewater should throw more and end up giving Stefon Diggs a much better shot at production.

Derek Carr was not at the top of his game this week, which may have had a little to do with the windy conditions in Oakland, but he did manage to throw for two touchdowns and 302 yards, while also throwing two interceptions.

Amari Cooper led the way with five receptions on nine targets for 79 yards, while Clive Walford and Andre Holmes found the end zone.

Chiefs 29, Broncos 13
Peyton Manning was benched for Brock Osweiler after throwing four interceptions in the first half, while completing just five passes for 35 yards. Manning was beat up with rib and foot injuries, and coach Gary Kubiak says he should have sat him for the game with the injuries he had and that as long as he’s healthy, he’s the starting quarterback. Osweiler wasn’t great by any means, but was able to move around and throw the ball without looking like he forgot his walker at home.

Ronnie Hillman led the running backs with 15 looks to C.J. Anderson’s three. After the last couple games it sure looked like Anderson was at least going to maintain his 50/50 split with Hillman, but not this week. This game was a blowout, and it’s hard to know all that much about what they’ll do going forward based on these results, but Anderson gets knocked down a bit going forward.

Kansas City’s five interceptions were a big help to this offense, which relied almost exclusively on Charcandrick West, who totaled 161 yards on 29 looks. That’s tough to do against this Denver defense, but when you’re always on your heels after a turnover and you don’t get much time to rest, these things happen.

Patriots 27, Giants 26
This was a great game to watch and also had some good fantasy contributors, with Rob Gronkowski doing his normal thing with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, while LeGarrette Blount rushed for his sixth touchdown of the season, totaling 77 yards on 21 touches.

Tom Brady has now had back-to-back 17-point fantasy games, both his lowest on the season and the only times he’s had under 22 in a game. The biggest concern for Brady’s fantasy prospects are two injuries, Dion Lewis and now Julian Edelman, who broke his foot and will most likely miss the rest of the regular season. Both were great targets underneath for Brady. Look for Danny Amendola to pick up a lot of Edelman’s targets, as he did this week, leading the team with 11 targets, catching 10 for 79 yards. Those are PPR numbers you can sink your teeth into. And if he’s on your waiver wire, bid your net worth for him.

Eli Manning had 251 yards passing and two touchdowns at half, but ended up adding just 110 yards and no touchdowns in the second half. His two main targets this week were Odell Beckham Jr. and Dwayne Harris. Beckham caught an 87-yard touchdown in the first quarter, but only managed 17 more yards the rest of the game as Malcom Butler did a good job on him.

Rueben Randle was out-targeted by Dwayne Harris, while Harris caught 6-of-9 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown compared to Randle catching 3-of-4 targets for 51 yards. Neither is a safe bet in fantasy, but both are worth rostering in most leagues.

The running back situation for the Giants is toxic to fantasy football.

Cardinals 39, Seahawks 32
Carson Palmer went to Seattle and put up 363 yards and three touchdowns against one of tougher defenses in the league. He lost two fumbles and was intercepted, but putting these numbers up in Seattle just shows us how matchup proof he is.

Palmer hit Michael Floyd for two of those touchdown passes and seven receptions for 113 yards before the latter was forced from the game with a hamstring injury. If the injury keeps Floyd out any games, John Brown should get a nice bump, but he is also not 100 percent. Brown played 61 snaps, but did not look like a full-go and caught zero passes on three targets.

Larry Fitzgerald continues to play up to Larry Fitzgerald standards, as he caught 10-of-15 passes for 130 yards. If Floyd is out and Brown remains limited, expect to see plenty of targets for Fitzy.

Marshawn Lynch was questionable to go Sunday Night, but was able to play, and he ended up scoring a touchdown and putting up 50 yards on just nine touches. Lynch has three touchdowns in his last four games, and next week, game script shouldn’t hurt him against the 49ers like it did this week after the Cardinals got out to a nice lead.

Russell Wilson saved his fantasy day from complete ineptitude to fair-to-middling, with 52 yards rushing. He did hook up with Doug Baldwin for a big game of 134 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. Baldwin hadn’t topped 35 yards in his previous three matchups, and including his outburst tonight, he has three games under 70 yards and six under 35 yards.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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