2016 Fantasy Football: Week 11’s Last-Minute Decisions

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Posted Nov. 19, 2016.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The weather in Cleveland looks a little scary for the passing games, with sustained winds of 25 to 31 mph and gusts up to 47 mph. In DFS, I’m likely going to reluctantly fade Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, and stick with Le’Veon Bell, unless the Browns build a dome by the morning. I could be wrong here, as Antonio Brown and Bell are extremely good at getting open underneath, but this wind could really limit the deep passing game, which opens up this Steelers offense. I will likely still play the passing game in redraft though.

Winds could also help keep this game a bit closer and give Isaiah Crowell more attempts, especially after Hue Jackson proclaimed he wanted to get Crowell and the running game going after getting away from it of late. The Steelers have been allowing opposing running backs to run them over and are hurting on defense with Cam Heyward done for the season. If the Steelers get a big lead, it will be tough for Crowell to get the touches he needs, but if the wind plays a real factor, we could see a nice game from him.

Winds will also be strong in New York, as the Giants take on the Bears, but at 15 to 24 mph with gusts up to 34 mph, I think the passing games should be okay. Robbie Gould’s revenge game might not have the same ring to it like it once did.

The best game to target for fantasy is Tennessee at Indianapolis. They have the highest over/under at 53 total points, and the Colts are favored by just 2.5 points. The point totals in each of Tennessee’s last five games are 54, 60, 58, 78, and 72 as the Titans’ offense plays great and their defense, especially their pass defense, does not. You could actually stack this whole game in a DFS tournament and have a decent shot at cashing. I’ll rank them here in the order I think they’ll play out points-wise: Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, T.Y. Hilton, DeMarco Murray, Donte Moncrief, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, Frank Gore and Jack Doyle.

Colts cornerback Patrick Robinson is doubtful after not practicing all week. His absence should help Rishard Matthews in an already good matchup.

Both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan are out this week against the 49ers. That will put a lot of players in play, like Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell, but Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman should see a boost and become extremely safe plays in a great matchup. Of course, LeGarrette Blount has the best matchup on paper this week against the 49ers’ weak run defense, but I expect the Patriots to reverse Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense and put up a big game as they work on getting their offense hitting on all cylinders.

Todd Gurley popped up on the injury report with a thigh injury this week. This is the same thigh that was bothering him last week, so I expect he’ll be able to go, and he gets a good enough matchup to play him as usual. And hopefully the insertion of Jared Goff as the starter will light a bit of fire under this offense. It really couldn’t get any worse.

The Ravens should be in a passing-game script against the Cowboys as they are 7-point underdogs and the Cowboys have been moving the ball with ease. They have also shown plenty of weakness against the pass. It’s not enough to go all-in on Joe Flacco, but I do feel good about Steve Smith being the main target in a good matchup.

Dez Bryant put in limited work on Friday due to a back problem, but beat reporters said he looked fine and should be able to go. Unless we hear differently, go ahead and play him as usual, especially with the Ravens’ Jimmy Smith doubtful.

Thomas Rawls isn’t listed on the injury report and will play. Reports have Rawls being eased back with C.J. Prosise getting more work. It does seem like the logical move, as Prosise looked good last week and Rawls has been injured off and on for a long while now. But, Pete Carroll is no friend to the fantasy player. If Rawls is getting yardage between the tackles, he’ll keep getting those carries at the very least.

DeSean Jackson will play against the Packers. He hasn’t been doing much when playing, but he’s also had nagging injuries. This is a great matchup for Washington’s passing game, but I’d likely be more in on Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed than Jackson.

Spencer Ware has been concussed and had a tough matchup against the Panthers last week, so his DFS ownership will likely be low, but the Buccaneers aren’t imposing against the run. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed 343 yards on 68 carries for 5.04 yards per carry, and Kansas City is favored by a touchdown or more, so the Chiefs should be able to run the ball with a lead. Ware could easily go under-owned in DFS due to his recent “down” games, but he’s no doubt a talent worth rostering in a good matchup at home.

Jeremy Maclin won’t play again this week with a groin injury. This will again open up targets for Tyreek Hill, who caught 10-of-13 targets for 98 yards last week. I’ll be playing him at DraftKings this week due to their 1-point PPR scoring.

Tampa Bay will have trouble in Kansas City, but Mike Evans gets a nice matchup against either Marcus Peters with a hip pointer or his backup. Eric Berry should shut down Cameron Brate in the middle, and Evans could see a huge number of targets if the Bucs trail in this game as Vegas implies.

Larry Fitzgerald is no longer on the injury report. He gets a tough matchup, but he’ll once again be the top target for Carson Palmer this week.

Miami will be short a couple offensive linemen this week, with both Mike Pouncey and Branden Albert are out. This is bad news, especially against a strong Rams front four. Jay Ajayi should be downgraded and the Rams D/ST upgraded.

Lamar Miller was limited in practice, but will be a full-go against the Raiders in Mexico City Monday night. He has seen his role reduced a bit lately, but Alfred Blue is out for this game. Akeem Hunt will be the backup, but Miller should see enough work to be a good start against Oakland.

Both Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz got full practices in on Friday and will start against the Seahawks. It’s a tough matchup, but both have been seeing the bulk of targets and should continue to be redraft plays.

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