By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Jordy Nelson has most likely torn his ACL ,thus ending his season and the hopes and dreams of many a fake footballer. This, of course, has many fantasy ramifications, as one of the best offenses in the league loses its best wide receiver.
Randall Cobb gets a slight bump. The reason it’s not a bigger bump is because he was already pretty high in most rankings and ADP. But he does get much safer. Last season, his touchdown numbers were a little higher than he’s likely to sustain, so now a bump in targets should help his fantasy floor. The loss of Nelson will get more top corners shadowing Cobb, or at least a little extra defensive attention, but this is Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, so I think all will be fine in Randall Cobb land.
The biggest jump in the rankings will be Davante Adams, who is first in line for Nelson’s targets and has a fairly strong grip on the spot just below Cobb. Of course, Adams’ skill set is not close to Nelson’s skill set, so the amazing efficiency that Rodgers to Nelson have isn’t going to be there, which may help the lesser-known pass-catchers on the team get more targets.
Those lesser-knowns targets are tight end Richard Rodgers and wide receivers Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery. Janis was the first receiver off the bench when Nelson went down, so appears to be next in line. If Janis does manage to hold off Ty Montgomery, who really is more of a backup/similar player to Randall Cobb, he will have value as the No. 3 receiver. Janis has all the tools to be a good receiver, but has yet to put them all together on the field. His upside, though, is worth reaching a bit for him even as his ADP rises.
The sneakiest pick could be Richard Rodgers. He appears to have won the tight end job and even caught a touchdown against the Steelers, looking good in the process. With Nelson out, Rodgers should see an uptick in red-zone targets. His consistency may not be great, but in this offense, touchdowns will be plentiful. Aaron Rodgers threw 38 scores last season, ranking third in the league while throwing the ball just 520 times, which was 14th in the NFL. This season, the Packers vow to play more up-tempo, and we could see those attempts march upward, which in turn is good news for these ancillary receiving pieces.
But for me, this gives the already solid fantasy back Eddie Lacy an even higher and safer floor than before. Lacy, like Aaron Rodgers, was extremely efficient last year with 13 touchdowns on 246 rushing attempts and 42 receptions. Both those numbers already had a good chance of inching upward this season, but now with Green Bay’s best receiver most likely done for the season, only injury would keep Lacy from upping his already great fantasy stats.
Last, but certainly not least, Aaron Rodgers; A-A-ron is the best quarterback in the league right now, and he still has a good supporting cast. There will be some low periods with Adams, Janis and Richard Rodgers not being able to match Mr. Rodgers’ ability, but overall, this team is going to move at a faster pace, and with somewhat less efficiency, you could argue Aaron Rodgers will need to stay in games longer and throw the ball more often. I’m not sure I’m ready to argue that, but I don’t believe we see a huge dip in production due to a more up-tempo approach this season.
Anyway you look at this, it is bad news for the Packers’ real football team, but unless you already drafted Jordy Nelson, you will be fine and now have a few more players to target in your drafts.
For more detailed recommendations, check out WalterFootball.com’s Fantasy Wide Receiver rankings and Fantasy Cheat Sheet. Also, check out WalterFootball.com’s otherFantasy Football Rankings.
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