By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Updated July 5, 2015
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I’m starting a series of mock draft posts using the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator and will be using different settings and draft positions to give us a look at how they play out. For my first mock I went fairly mainstream with one-point PPR, 1QB, 2RBs, 3 WRS, 1TE, 1 DEF and 11 bench spots. I chose the No. 10 draft position this time.
1.01. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
Charles is a first-tier running back for me, so him at No. 1 is not a stretch. I worry about his body holding up, but I do believe Kansas City will throw the ball more this season with Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin, and they’ll get some time for some of their decent young receivers in Albert Wilson and Chris Conley. If that goes well J.C. Superstar will have more room to show off his electrifying ability in open space this season.
1.02. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers
I am finding it difficult to really exclude any my top-five running backs from the No. 1 spot. I keep hoping that Bell will fall to me later in the first round due to his suspension, but people realize his ability trumps those missed games, which will happen before any bye weeks or (crosses toes) many injuries, which should allow you to play your flex running back as your No. 2 back to start the season and not miss out too badly on possible points.
1.03. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Peterson is my No. 1 back this season, but like I’ve mentioned, my top-five backs are close to interchangeable this year. I think the consensus No. 1 pick this season may differ depending on what average draft position numbers you are looking at, but he will most likely continue inching up toward the front. My dream is to get him around the sixth or seventh pick where his ADP is now instead of getting the No. 1 pick and wasting five or more picks of draft capital on him.
1.04. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
Again, a running back I’d be fine with at No. 1 overall. Lacy’s upside isn’t as high as some of these guys on a game-to-game basis, but his floor is high enough that I could see playing it safe with him.
1.05. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
Forte is the first pick in this mock that I can’t get behind. Don’t get me wrong; he is a great player, but the odds for a big season are slightly stacked against him. The departure of Marc Trestman means the loss of a big chunk of those receptions he was piling up every game the last couple seasons. Trestman also used Forte on almost every snap of the game, more so than most lead running backs. John Fox will give him a bit more rest, and without 100 receptions, it is going to be very difficult for Forte to offset his lack of touchdowns. He’ll need to get lucky with some easy scores, and I don’t know how often the Bears will provide him with that this season.
1.06. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
I believe Brown hit his peak last season, but in PPR, I’d be hard pressed not to grab him this early. He destroyed the record for most-consecutive five-reception games, and just on that alone, we are assured a high and sturdy floor to build our PPR team around. The question is, do you want to pay for what could be his career year, or go for someone who might be able to out career year him? I’m 50/50 on that myself, and if I go Brown this early, I might try for someone with a higher ceiling in the second round, but has more risk.
1.07. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
You truly can’t go wrong with Gronk anywhere in the first round. His enormous touchdown potential coupled with the scarcity of reliable top end tight ends, especially with Jimmy Graham out of New Orleans, makes Gronk a No. 1 pick candidate.
1.08. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
I have Thomas as my No. 5 wide receiver this season and could see him going in the first round of a PPR league like this, but I think the eighth pick is just too early, especially with Marshawn Lynch still on the board. He’ll be a second-round pick for me most of the time.
1.09. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
Beast Mode is in my top-five running backs and that means I feel decent about him being the No. 1 overall pick this season. His consistency and high touchdown rate easily makes him a safe top end pick and I’d grab him in the nine spot every time.
1.10. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos
I went with C.J. Anderson here. As you can see, I like him quite a bit as my sixth-ranked running back. He is currently going off the board as the 10th running back and the 17th player, so choosing him here may have been a bit early since my next shot at him was at 15th overall, but sometimes you have to grab your favorites a little early to make sure you get them. It’s a tough fence to walk since much depends on your league mates. For the simulator, you are going against the FantasyPros expert rankings, which for the most part keep on track with what you’ll encounter in real mock drafts. That gives you very little to go on though, so I usually get �my� players when I can.
1.11. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
I’ve gone back and forth on Arian Foster as a first-round pick, but I am going to wait on him until the second round. I don’t really believe in “injury prone” as something we can quantify well enough to invest too much into, but I also want to at least get a discount on someone who has the label.
1.12. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants
If we could count on Odell Beckham’s average weekly score from last season, most of us would grab him No. 1 overall, but we also like to see consistency from year to year, especially from receivers, before plunking down a first-round pick for them. I have him as my No. 3 receiver this season, but I’m scared of him. But those are the risks you take if you want to win your league.
Stay tuned for Round 2 and more! Check out our Fantasy Football Rankings in the meantime.
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